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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

  #1161 (permalink)
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" B) Crude seems to be getting ready for next leg down based upon days price action. I am flat. Anyone thinking of picking bottom be careful. I was looking for longs most of the day but day's close has taken away my long ideas. Looking for shorts".


Holding some shorts into Globex session.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1162 (permalink)
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Crude in Contango

The price of all forward contracts in the WTI market have been in backwardation for the last several months. IOW, the price of the forward months have been below, in some cases $2 below, the front month pricing. In backwardation, you can buy oil at a cheaper price farther out in the future - this puts downward pressure on current prices.

WTI has finally gone into contango where the forward months are trading above the price of the current front month. Thus the price of the january contract is higher (within statistical limits identical) than the price of the december contract.

This is one factor in pricing oil but the backwardation and its downward effect on pricing of the front month is gone. I'm not saying oil is going to start climbing today but just that one of the structural pieces of the puzzle is no longer pushing prices down.


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  #1163 (permalink)
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Hi Surly,

" WTI has finally gone into contango where the forward months are trading above the price of the current front month. Thus the price of the january contract is higher (within statistical limits identical) than the price of the december contract.

This is one factor in pricing oil but the backwardation and its downward effect on pricing of the front month is gone. I'm not saying oil is going to start climbing today but just that one of the structural pieces of the puzzle is no longer pushing prices down."

Combine this with upcoming seasonal bullish tendencies of CL and we have RULES of the game. My tell sign will be when pullbacks become buyable from a weekly prespective.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1164 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Hi Surly,

Combine this with upcoming seasonal bullish tendencies of CL and we have RULES of the game. My tell sign will be when pullbacks become buyable from a weekly prespective.

Yes - we are traders, not analysts. We have to rely on the chart to tell us what to do and what not to do. At the end of the day:

"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - john maynard keynes

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1165 (permalink)
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What's equivalent to dating a super model in trading? There are some RULES;

1) Regardless of beauty of the model- start slowly and don't get too deep, a.k. a don't buy at ORH.

2) Never date a dull one, a.k.a never short a dull market.


NG short is an example what i dream about all day because i like RISK. No risk= No Gains.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; November 19th, 2014 at 09:11 AM.
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  #1166 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
" B) Crude seems to be getting ready for next leg down based upon days price action. I am flat. Anyone thinking of picking bottom be careful. I was looking for longs most of the day but day's close has taken away my long ideas. Looking for shorts".


Holding some shorts into Globex session.

CL did not test new lows during Globex as i was hoping for. I was short from 74.40 area. Covered some 74.10 and added to short this morning around 75. Covered around 74.50 and holding some in front of DOE report at 10.30 am this morning.

In the index universe everyone seems to be waiting for 2 pm FOMC minutes. NG is stuck within OR.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1167 (permalink)
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A newley minted model.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1168 (permalink)
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one need catalyst. 2 highy flying models got some air taken out.

1) Short GC.

2) Short TF 1164 area. Cover some and holding short. Going over my notes from yesterday , i was long 1166 to 1174. Price has no VALUE.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1169 (permalink)
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NG is up and up. Seasonal cold weather on east coast always puts fire under NG. It's getting up in nose bleeding territory, so out some 4.460 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1170 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
A newley minted model.

Based off daily and weekly chart- with no clear pattern, i am willing to short after move beyond ATR etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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