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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #1121 (permalink)
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I am short from .8725 area on a premise that every bounce is shortable within a macro bearish trend. Stop loss above last 2 weeks high. Not sure about timing, location of the trade but pretty sure about direction of the trend. Being right 1 out of 3 is good enough. Important point is out of 3 which one is most important- Timing, location or Context. I beat myself for years to get all 3 right, i just could not do it on a consistent basis. So i looked for easy way out and settled on context.

Aussie



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1122 (permalink)
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Aussie

The twisted logic of risking twice to make half of the risk. It's against every risk strategy out there but it works for me. Options is one way to risk 1 to make 5, 10 times but i can not make sense out of options at this point. Since i can not get timing and location of a trade to be right on the money- i give my trades lot of room to hide my shortcomings as a trader.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1123 (permalink)
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CC down and down. Stopped out on KC as she ripped 2.71%. Looking for shorts.

Short KC and CC into bounce around 2840 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1124 (permalink)
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Short KC and CC into bounce around 2840 area.

CC getting roasted.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1125 (permalink)
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My lady CL is doing her thing. Out flat 74.34 area. After massive move of yesterday- more clamer and typical rotational day should be on hands for the day.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1126 (permalink)
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By Bloomberg news.

" Investigations by authorities on three continents are proceeding after six banks, including Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and UBS AG (UBSN), agreed to pay $4.3 billion to regulators in Europe and the U.S. Nov. 12 to settle claims that traders colluded with counterparts at other firms in an attempt to manipulate currency rates."

They can mess forex markets within a band but not outside of it by much. That's the reason for my stop loss strategy. Even after knowing this what do majority of traders do? they get in right in the middle for pips in the name of reading order flow, news, moving average monkey etc. while messing their HEART BEAT on a daily basis. Traders getting in the middle keep getting hosed but they can not give up. We hear all the time from traders that they are ADDICTIED to trading. Well pumped up HEART BEAT have addictive properties lethal than any drug out there.

Las Vegas joints never been fined for collusion as an industry at the extent these fine banking institutions get fined every other year but they stand tall with big bounces across the board? How is that possible? Common Sense tells us that they must be making more than Las Vegas joints and a new sucker joins the biggest joint of all- stocks, futures and forex markets every day to keep it going. By sucker i do not mean individual investor only, there are institutions and nations get sucked into all this.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1127 (permalink)
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Some shine coming off PL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I've been watching these trendlines for weeks now. I keep adjusting the upper trendline as CL makes bounces and that trendline continues to be very easy to fit to the reaction levels - in other words I don't have to adjust it much. This kind of behavior is far from random - there is clearly some general consensus about selling near the top of this trend range and we haven't really broke out the bottom yet. The bottom trendline is just a parallel to the top line placed at the first low from back in mid-October.

Some things I notice:

- One of the strongest down moves (11/3 to 11/4) happened after CL broke above the trendline on 10/29 and failed, after that clear rejection of prices above the line the market dove almost straight down to the lower line.

- this most recent flush down from this morning stopped almost exactly at the line - I think this is another good reason to have bought on that flush down and held for a correction after yesterday's big move down to new lows.

- At some point, and it could be in a day or in a month or longer, we will break out of this trending range and establish a new regime of price action but for now we are surely still in this range and the macro trading is governed by the boundaries of the range.

I'm curious what you think of this MFB - do you think these lines are just coincidence or do you think that the macro structure of the supply and demand are being affected by this channel? I'm not challenging, I'm honestly seeking your opinion - I have my own but this is a place to share ideas.


Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1129 (permalink)
denver, colorado
 
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mfbreakout View Post
They can mess forex markets within a band but not outside of it by much. That's the reason for my stop loss strategy. Even after knowing this what do majority of traders do? they get in right in the middle for pips in the name of reading order flow, news, moving average monkey etc. while messing their HEART BEAT on a daily basis. Traders getting in the middle keep getting hosed but they can not give up. We hear all the time from traders that they are ADDICTIED to trading. Well pumped up HEART BEAT have addictive properties lethal than any drug out there.

Currencies seem like the most "macro" markets out there - they are all in relationship with each other and are valued by the economic relationships and competitions between whole nations. They are affected by the economic philosophies of different central banks, different economic philosophies (capitalism vs socialism vs ...), and the behavior and demographics of whole populations. No surprise that banks would try to manipulate them and no surprise that they cannot more than small amounts.

These two charts show the battleground that will play out over the next year or so. The USD and the EURO - they have been in a trading range against each other for many years and we are coming to an extreme of that trading range (USD 90 and EURO 1.20). Markets are simple, they go up and they go down - will these instruments reverse when they get to the extremes of these two trading ranges or will they continue past? Who the heck knows. But the answer to that question will determine the economic futures of these two western superpowers and even affect the future of the european union. Hard to use any of this for trading but it will be interesting to watch this all play out over the next year or two.




Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1130 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
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Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
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Surly View Post
I've been watching these trendlines for weeks now. I keep adjusting the upper trendline as CL makes bounces and that trendline continues to be very easy to fit to the reaction levels - in other words I don't have to adjust it much. This kind of behavior is far from random - there is clearly some general consensus about selling near the top of this trend range and we haven't really broke out the bottom yet. The bottom trendline is just a parallel to the top line placed at the first low from back in mid-October.

Some things I notice:

- One of the strongest down moves (11/3 to 11/4) happened after CL broke above the trendline on 10/29 and failed, after that clear rejection of prices above the line the market dove almost straight down to the lower line.

- this most recent flush down from this morning stopped almost exactly at the line - I think this is another good reason to have bought on that flush down and held for a correction after yesterday's big move down to new lows.

- At some point, and it could be in a day or in a month or longer, we will break out of this trending range and establish a new regime of price action but for now we are surely still in this range and the macro trading is governed by the boundaries of the range.

I'm curious what you think of this MFB - do you think these lines are just coincidence or do you think that the macro structure of the supply and demand are being affected by this channel? I'm not challenging, I'm honestly seeking your opinion - I have my own but this is a place to share ideas.



Thanks Surly. Anyone who shares, discuss ideas is a HERO in my book. Trend lines, channels, balance areas, weekly ranges, daily ranges- they all have VALUE. Without these tools we have nothing else to go by. What i do not believe in is exact areas of support/resistance. After watching macro traders managing billions who always talk about ranges i started thinking " Who the hell i am coming up with exact levels?" when these guys do not stress about exact levels.

I know of many traders who can see on a chart demand /supply zones- in fact almost any one can do it. Problem comes when they try to put stop loss right above it. They like to say this is my set up, i am giving it 30 ticks ( or something like that) stop loss it either works or doe not. Picking stop loss like that is random.

Bottom line is everything becomes random if one gets stopped out. My solution to this problem is that i try to stay way away from randomness as far as stop loss goes. When my trade works, i look at my supply/demand zone and it looks like i have a crystal ball. In the past i was constantly adjusting my supply/demand zones to figure out PRECISE stop loss area. I try my best to come up with logical trade location but i do not get stress about PRECISION in discretionary trading any more.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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