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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #1101 (permalink)
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KC

News about Coffee Market is Conflicting ,Compared to the Technical picture.....Fundamentally we are seeing a Drought in Brazil...that should cause a Rise in Price...But we are at High levels, and Retailers that sell Coffee products are not selling their goods at these levels from other reports.
I am looking at Technical picture:
-Weekly Chart looks Big Time Bearish.
-Daily looks like we may Test Higher back up toward Trend line?.....i am only looking at MACD for reason for saying that......i looked at Hourly, and it looks Bearish.
I get a bit confused trying to factor news with timing Entries....just trying to get a Fundamental Understanding.
The Hourly looks Good....if KC breaks below 183 it should head Down some more toward 180 Area?...
No Forecasting right..

Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-kcweekly.png   COMMON SENSE-kcdaily.png   COMMON SENSE-kchourly.png  
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  #1102 (permalink)
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Trading

After spinning wheels for couple of years, traders come up with a set of things similar to following as a list of things they need to focus/master to become successful in trading.

To win the mental game you must have…

1) Faith in yourself.
2) Faith in your system.
3) An understanding of what trading size you can handle.
4) An understanding of the level of losses you can deal with mentally and emotionally.
5) A love and passion for trading.
6) The belief that it is possible to win in trading.
7) The belief that all your hard work will be worth it.
8) The belief that you are a trader, that is what you do.
9) The perseverance to have your butt kicked over and over but keep coming back.
10) The stubbornness to keep trying until you are successful.

Let's not worry about traders who have not yet realized the importance of things outlined in the above list. How about traders who have these things written down with 24K gold ink and framed all over their trading desk, office walls etc? In other words they got these things under control as much a human being can do.

I know of many traders who have everything mentioned in that list except ONE and they are still spinning the wheels and will continue to spin the wheels. In my experience item #4 is the missing link for traders who have everything else mentioned on that list. I will rewrite item #4 as following

4) An understanding of the level of risk one needs to undertake on every trade to avoid random nature of price movements and take something out of someone else's pocket.

The way item #4 is written in the list is a wrong way to approach the markets. Everyone has an understanding of the level of losses one can deal with mentally and emotionally. But how one feels about level of losses has NO MEANING and MARKET does not care. One trader can say based upon his account size, his personal financial situation and his technical analysis etc. that he can only handle 15 ticks stop loss vs. another trader who can handle 40 ticks stop loss and so on. When i have discussion like this with traders they almost come to tears, they curse me (not in my face but i know they do because i used to curse when other traders tried to guide me) and throw up their hands by saying " Well mfbreakout i do not have your trading account size and i have no way to get money from anywhere else".

I have never told anyone about my trading account and i am not in a position to tell anyone what's the proper trading account size one needs to trade full time for a living. A trader should be able to figure out that on his own. What i can tell is to FOCUS on "An understanding of the level of risk one needs to undertake on every trade to avoid random nature of price movements and take something out of someone else's pocket" and everything else will fall in place. Without item #4, items 1-10 can be a recipe for disaster because words like hard work, belief, stubbornness, perseverance, faith, love and passion etc. needs a foundation to build upon. We all know traders full of passion, love, faith etc for trading but going nowhere. One does not need to work on their passion, love, hard work etc. for trading. You either have it or you do not. Work on #4.

NOTE: The post is not about whether 15 ticks stop loss is better than 50 ticks or if one can make a living off a $5K vs $50K trading account.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 13th, 2014 at 08:23 AM.
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  #1103 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Whi i am not touching CC from the long side?

Another 32 points drop to 2823 or 1.25% drop this morning.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1104 (permalink)
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Trading

Example of day dreaming at it's finest.

By Bloomberg

" It’s a Saturday afternoon in March, and more than 500 people have tuned in for a two-hour webinar that tells them they can become rich trading foreign currencies.

“Success in trading is not a fantasy; it’s a formula,” Jared Martinez, founder of Market Traders Institute Inc., the oldest and largest such school in the U.S., tells his audience. “We have that formula.”

The Lake Mary, Florida, company that Martinez founded in 1994 says it has educated 30,000 amateur foreign-exchange investors.

“How many people would like to learn a skill where, within two days, they could make a thousand dollars?” Martinez asks that afternoon. “I’m here to tell you I can teach you how to trade consistently.”

He introduces Jose Tormos, his son-in-law, who echoes Martinez’s advice, Bloomberg Markets will report in its December issue."

Full article at Leverage as High as 50 to 1 Lures Amateur Forex Traders. They Lose - Bloomberg



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1105 (permalink)
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6A

Price finally reached Gap Area....I figured 6A would try and reach this Gap Area after the Non Farm report.
Although i was Faked out by the Large Spiked down bar on that 1H......There were Good set ups off of the Higher Low Structure up to the Gap.
where will 6A head to now?...i do not know....we will let Price give us a clue....and see if there is Evidence/Set up
we can trade.
On the Chart if you notice we are Diverged at current time...i did not draw a line to show this last Divergence.
I am just aware of it...i wait for Conformation, and other Evidence before Deciding what to do.

Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-6a-11-13-thurs1h.png  
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  #1106 (permalink)
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sandptrader View Post
Price finally reached Gap Area....I figured 6A would try and reach this Gap Area after the Non Farm report.
Although i was Faked out by the Large Spiked down bar on that 1H......There were Good set ups off of the Higher Low Structure up to the Gap.
where will 6A head to now?...i do not know....we will let Price give us a clue....and see if there is Evidence/Set up
we can trade.
On the Chart if you notice we are Diverged at current time...i did not draw a line to show this last Divergence.
I am just aware of it...i wait for Conformation, and other Evidence before Deciding what to do.

I am short from .8725 area on a premise that every bounce is shortable within a macro bearish trend. Stop loss above last 2 weeks high. Not sure about timing, location of the trade but pretty sure about direction of the trend. Being right 1 out of 3 is good enough. Important point is out of 3 which one is most important- Timing, location or Context. I beat myself for years to get all 3 right, i just could not do it on a consistent basis. So i looked for easy way out and settled on context.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 13th, 2014 at 08:52 AM.
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  #1107 (permalink)
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4.30 pm today API news came. I do not know what the report findings are but based upon price action my short set up is not looking good. I was thinking that the way CL reacted today into the close is an early tell sign to API report.

Still holding shorts but cut down the size. All this drama for nothing. Key point is that one has to take all the set ups. One can not cherry pick.

Come on CL- break down.

CORRECTION= chart should read cover some 76.20



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-11-13_0758_doe_break.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 14th, 2014 at 04:51 AM.
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  #1108 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Whi i am not touching CC from the long side?


Cover some. Added to shorts in KC into the bounce.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1109 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Come on CL- break down.

Added to shorts and there she goes.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1110 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Cover some. Added to shorts in KC into the bounce.


CC down and down. Stopped out on KC as she ripped 2.71%. Looking for shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 13th, 2014 at 01:01 PM.
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