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COMMON SENSE

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  #1001 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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mfbreakout View Post
Nice. One way i try to put some value in an area for support/resistance, for example for CL if price moves 100 ticks from that area. What will be criteria for 6A support. I have only traded it once so far, so trying to get better feel.

Most of what i post is Not Longer term....but usually Relevant to Intraday Swings...which could turn out to be Larger Ticks....but No Guarantee.

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  #1002 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Typical lunch hour price action. " One way i try to put some value in an area for support/resistance, for example for CL if price moves 100 ticks from that area"

Long 76.30 area . Out some 76.68.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1003 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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@mfbreakout....wanted ask you based on how i Identify Structural set ups with 1,2,3 labels.
How is this Similar to the ACD Structure, as i have Not Studied ACD Method.
But from what i see they are Both following the Failed A up/A down Structure.
I learned this set up 20 years ago this month...it is my 20 year part time Anniversary .......as i have been participating
part time for that long in Futures.
I Love it when i can find this with Divergence, or Divergence is present in the Price Area...but the Structure is mainly
what i like to see....if i am not mistaken Gann Favored this #3 point as Safest place to Enter....it is a Higher Low.
I will Enter and wait to see if it Breaks the #2 Area.....i just found this on NQ....not keeping eye on everything today.

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  #1004 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
NG short not looking good. One can not be just focused on one trade. Waiting for a flush up to add to short. So called pain has a tendency to clear my mind more than gains.


ACD saved the day. If i was just stuck with shorting it could have gotten REAL UGLY. A move like this is slow and steady- up and up. This is where REAL MONEY is made. On the other hand CL has been jerking up and down which requires experience, patience and a whole lot of confidence to make something out of it. I mean 1 hour hold time for 50 ticks with lot of SONG and DANCE in between.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1005 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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For Sandptrader 20th Anniversary,

" it is my 20 year part time Anniversary .......as i have been participating
part time for that long in Futures."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1006 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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mfbreakout View Post
For Sandptrader 20th Anniversary,

" it is my 20 year part time Anniversary .......as i have been participating
part time for that long in Futures."

Thanks....i see a Triple Tap....'''"We are Technical Traders....and you are a Real Good One !...

Full Time in January..as it has been a long Time coming...too long...

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  #1007 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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I have been guilty of picking bottoms and trade against the trend many many times. After a big sell off i always used to think ( and still have not gotten rid of this kind of thinking completely) that i have missed the move. If i wanted to short stop loss was always too wide to have any chance. After getting scared by wide stop loss , i will start looking for longs and get hosed all day long. Looking at charts based off what happened in the past to pick support is OK as long it's with the trend. It's never a good idea to pick support against the trend as lot of traders have been trying to go long in Gold around 1165 area after GOld sell off from 1230 area. We do not have to be the first one to pick reversal points. When it comes it will be very clear to everyone. I am a visual person and like to keep videos like following front and center if ever tempted to pick bottoms or trade against the macro trend.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1008 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Staying long. I am stunned by the move to say the least.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1009 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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API news set up - no follow through. I am buying CL any time it pulls back to 76 to 76.40 area till new selling comes in that area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1010 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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100% risk free trade for day dreamers expecting high returns. Give money to your bank, get peace of mind and let them use your money. Peace of Mind and high returns both comes with cost- one has to select one.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1011 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Out Flat GC around 1140 before 8.15 am news.

One does need to know the reasons but whenever anything reverses it shows up on charts.

Prepare for Gold Rally If Swiss Bullion Referendum Passes.


" There are people in Switzerland who resent that the country sold away much of its gold last decade. They may be a splinter group of Swiss politics, but they’re a persistent bunch.

And if they get their way in a referendum this month, these voters will make their presence known to gold traders around the world.

The proposal from the “Save Our Swiss Gold” proponents is simple: Force the central bank to build its bullion position up to at least 20 percent of total assets from 8 percent today. Holding 522 billion Swiss francs ($544 billion) of assets in its coffers, the Swiss National Bank would have to buy at least 1,500 tons of gold, costing about $56.3 billion at current prices, to get to the required threshold by 2019."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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A short opportunity over last 5 weeks which i completely missed. It was right there for experienced traders to pick up. As Crude was getting sold a trader should be constantly asking " Who else is getting impacted"? I wonder macro traders as they picked up this trade what kind of stop loss they were using?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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For my lady- CL.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1014 (permalink)
 Surly 
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mfbreakout View Post
Out Flat GC around 1140 before 8.15 am news.

One does need to know the reasons but whenever anything reverses it shows up on charts.

Prepare for Gold Rally If Swiss Bullion Referendum Passes.


" There are people in Switzerland who resent that the country sold away much of its gold last decade. They may be a splinter group of Swiss politics, but they’re a persistent bunch.

And if they get their way in a referendum this month, these voters will make their presence known to gold traders around the world.

The proposal from the “Save Our Swiss Gold” proponents is simple: Force the central bank to build its bullion position up to at least 20 percent of total assets from 8 percent today. Holding 522 billion Swiss francs ($544 billion) of assets in its coffers, the Swiss National Bank would have to buy at least 1,500 tons of gold, costing about $56.3 billion at current prices, to get to the required threshold by 2019."

This will rally gold but it might just provide an opportunity for someone like George Soros to come along and break the Swiss National bank. Now that would be a big play!

Short CL from 77.57, expecting rotation down to 77.00-77.20 area. Stop is above 77.80 - if we build momentum above 77.75 I expect we hit at least 78 so I will get out before that.



update: stopped out just before Open.

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  #1015 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
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@mfbreakout, when you mark down the levels from the previous weeks inventory, do you note the high/low of the day of the report or the high/low of just the reaction that takes place from the report?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  #1016 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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madLyfe View Post
@mfbreakout, when you mark down the levels from the previous weeks inventory, do you note the high/low of the day of the report or the high/low of just the reaction that takes place from the report?

I write down both levels. High and low of the day and High and low of DOE report day. Let's say DOE high is 83 but days high is 83.50. CL is bouncing from 81 and is now at 82.50. CL has moved 150 ticks. I can short at 82.50 with stop loss above 83 or 83.50. In this case i will place stop loss above 83 and see what happens.

For today DOE high for me is 79.40 and low is 76.40 ( globex low). Any trade i take long or short is with these 2 refrence points to decide on position size etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1017 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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DOE report can be MOST profitable trading days- if one has RULES and does not deviate from them. Most importantly KEY is to ignore jumping prices. Do not look at DOME. It will scare the hell out of you. After DOE my P&L was up and down quite a bit and then i had to hold for 50 minutes to get paid. If i am looking at P&L, the GAME is over. After DOE report i was counting as to how high CL can go. Low of 75.84 to 79.40- that's 356 ticks. Or if one takes today's globex low of 76.50, it's 290 ticks. On a macro berasih trend, i will short this all day long. Who is to say CL would stop around 79.40? No guarantees. I am just trading probabilities. If CL kept going higher, a trader either needs to get out of short or keep adding to shorts if it makes sense. I would have kept adding to shorts. Today is a good example of reversion to the mean set up. Anyone can draw channels, lines etc. on a chart and then say CL would stop at 79.40 but have tough time to clear 30 ticks. If one does not understand probabilities game, then it's tough to step up during the heat of the moment.

I did not hold entire position till 77.70 but close enough. Now, CL is in a box and one can make some serious dough with it.

NOTE: It helps to do something while waiting for a set up. After DOE report as price was ripping. I liestened to " There she goes " song non step for 30 minutes, drank water etc. till short made sense.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1018 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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No catalyst , NO move. Damn OJ. All the soft commodities needs a catalyst to have nice moves. I thought may be it's about time for OJ to move, but no go. Out flat.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1019 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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1) Holding shorts in CL into Globex session around 78.90 area.

2) Holding shorts in CC and NG.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1020 (permalink)
 robert880 
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What made you decide to start shorting at 78.8 -79.20?


mfbreakout View Post
DOE report can be MOST profitable trading days- if one has RULES and does not deviate from them. Most importantly KEY is to ignore jumping prices. Do not look at DOME. It will scare the hell out of you. After DOE my P&L was up and down quite a bit and then i had to hold for 50 minutes to get paid. If i am looking at P&L, the GAME is over. After DOE report i was counting as to how high CL can go. Low of 75.84 to 79.40- that's 356 ticks. Or if one takes today's globex low of 76.50, it's 290 ticks. On a macro berasih trend, i will short this all day long. Who is to say CL would stop around 79.40? No guarantees. I am just trading probabilities. If CL kept going higher, a trader either needs to get out of short or keep adding to shorts if it makes sense. I would have kept adding to shorts. Today is a good example of reversion to the mean set up. Anyone can draw channels, lines etc. on a chart and then say CL would stop at 79.40 but have tough time to clear 30 ticks. If one does not understand probabilities game, then it's tough to step up during the heat of the moment.

I did not hold entire position till 77.70 but close enough. Now, CL is in a box and one can make some serious dough with it.

NOTE: It helps to do something while waiting for a set up. After DOE report as price was ripping. I liestened to " There she goes " song non step for 30 minutes, drank water etc. till short made sense.


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  #1021 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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robert880 View Post
What made you decide to start shorting at 78.8 -79.20?

The reasons are right within my post you are referring to. When price moves beyond avergae daily range ( ATR) i am looking for shorts for a pullback. It should be obvious from my posts that i am not trading precise levels. I am trading context and probabilities. Lot of traders get confused with precise entries/exits. Short 78.80 then add around 79.20 etc shows that i am trading a rnage not exact levels.

I do not beleive in exact levels since there are none. It's easier to identify a range.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1022 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Draghi on tap tomorrow. Big implications for European markets , Euro $ etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1023 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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Working with TOS Charting for Longer term Analysis...and thought i would draw some lines...not Forecasting just posting Relevant info.
Failed A up on Daily in the form of Pennant ....4H showing the Pennant clearly, and Breakout.
I will start looking at these time frames at End of Day...i been missing out on the Bigger picture...
Support from 5-12-14 @2849....21 Ticks below...then Low from 1-5-14 @2660
Posting 4H and Daily and Weekly Charts.

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  #1024 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
1) Holding shorts in CL into Globex session around 78.90 area.

2) Holding shorts in CC and NG.


For Drd13,

Conviction and patience is a virtue. Try to look at trading landscape from BIG picture point of view just like you ask your students to look at BIG picture. Long refrence points does not mean price has to get exactly in that area to try longs.

NOTE: I never ever hold globex position if a major catalyst is up in the air which can impact Crude price behaviour.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1025 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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what is the Target ?.....CL Short from 78.22 x 5...I am looking at T1 77.68

FLAT....77.84

EARLY...TOO EARLY.

Tried re-entry Short....but looking Bullish so exit for small Profit....Watching...have to leave soon...too many things going on this week.

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  #1026 (permalink)
 Surly 
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Draghi on tap tomorrow. Big implications for European markets , Euro $ etc.

Press conference just finished. I think the biggest take home is that Draghi said very clearly that the ECB balance sheet would continue to expand while "other CB" balance sheets will contract (here he must be referring mainly to the US Fed). Japan is also clearly going to be going through a period of expanding their balance sheet as well. The US will eventually begin to contract their balance sheet and this is likely to occur sometime in the next year or so and Draghi knows this. So I guess I would expect his statement to mean that the ECB will be easing for years to come and this trend in the strength of the USD will continue. Much of the weakness in Oil over the last few months reflects this reality.

I think the implication for the price of WTI on the CME exchange is that it will continue to over- and under-shoot the reaction to the value of the USD but that it will generally be weakened by strength in the dollar (nothing new here). As we know, trends in the currency markets can last for years and I think we are going to see the Euro continue its slide against the dollar over the coming months/years.

FWIW.

edit: And as they say "buy the rumor, sell the fact" or in this case vice versa - Oil has just made a 150 tick rotation down which is a measured move with the move down from yesterday's high. Perhaps this favors longs at these prices (77.50 or so).

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  #1027 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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Shorted below Major Support @ 85.83...Market turn back Higher...so Exit @ 85.75...8 ticks....on this Trade i was not
Watching smaller Chart when Bullish Signal was generated....finish what i was doing and Exit...no time this morning to focus.
I would have been at $ 3500 Area on my Account for today if i had Exited when i should have...but not watching.

See you guys later today....got to go.

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  #1028 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Hi Surly,

" Oil has just made a 150 tick rotation down which is a measured move with the move down from yesterday's high. Perhaps this favors longs at these prices (77.50 or so)."

In my experience highest probability trades as an example for longs this morning needs to have following ;
1) A FLUSH DOWN and then reversal of it. I put on maxium size when this set up lines up. So far, this morning this has not happened.
2) Absent of above condition everything else is an educated guess. With an educated guess one can ONLY use a range as a refrence poinrs, for example 150-200 ticks rotation.
Following are my trades after i covered my shorts around 77.75 area on short from 78.84.

1) After NY open. Short 77.75. Cover 77.30 area. Reason for short= There were no buyers.
2) Long 77.37. Out 77.76. I used smallest position size since there was NO REVERSAL of flush down. Longs made sense on several fronts. Move from Globex high of 78.90 to 77.10, around 190 ticks plus yesterday Opening range low and so on. But price could have easily gone down and test 76.50 area. I am always aware of that when there is NO FLUSH down.
3) Short with size on bounce from 77.10 to 77.80 area. I am thinking of 2 scenarios. Either price will stay within box of 77 to 78 till 1 pm or will test 76.50.

I will keep shorting as price bounces to 78 area without give me a flush down first and cover some of the shorts as price pulls back to 77.30 area while keeping some shorts on. If buyers come in, i will get long even if CL is at 78. Most probably till 1.30 pm CL will be in a box.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1029 (permalink)
 Surly 
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In my experience highest probability trades as an example for longs this morning needs to have following ;
1) A FLUSH DOWN and then reversal of it. I put on maxium size when this set up lines up. So far, this morning this has not happened.
2) Absent of above condition everything else is an educated guess. With an educated guess one can ONLY use a range as a refrence poinrs, for example 150-200 ticks rotation.

...
I will keep shorting as price bounces to 78 area without give me a flush down first and cover some of the shorts as price pulls back to 77.30 area. If buyers come in, i will get long if if price is 78. Most probably till 1.30 pm CL will be in a box.

Thanks for this - after I opened a long from 77.50 area I was just not seeing any buying coming in and bailed. When I saw the market flush below the rth low of yest and bounce back up I took a long there. I waited for the market to clear the open - push through it with force but no go so I closed. Now I'm riding another long from just above 77.50 looking for another test of the open from below...

Thanks again - really appreciate your feedback!

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  #1030 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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I have been trading NG for a year now and i can tell now that it trades very similar to NG.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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I have been trading NG for a year now and i can tell now that it trades very similar to NG.

The 15 minute was a Great set up with Spike Down Candle , and the MACD Signal....i have not been able to keep eyes on all the Charts....Great Trade.

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 mfbreakout 
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The 15 minute was a Great set up with Spike Down Candle , and the MACD Signal....i have not been able to keep eyes on all the Charts....Great Trade.


Post a chart when you get a chance. I do not look at MACD etc. It will be interesting to see how you look at 15 minutes spike and MACD combo. My trade was just based off bullish trend pullback long.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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" I will keep shorting as price bounces to 78 area without give me a flush down first and cover some of the shorts as price pulls back to 77.30 area while keeping some shorts on. If buyers come in, i will get long even if CL is at 78. Most probably till 1.30 pm CL will be in a box."

All shorts today except one small long.

Short 78.16 Out 77.50 into close. Price is back upto 77.97 but i did not take long as long set up never showed up for me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1034 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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Post a chart when you get a chance. I do not look at MACD etc. It will be interesting to see how you look at 15 minutes spike and MACD combo. My trade was just based off bullish trend pullback long.

Here it is.....i am adding 30m also as it shows more Evidence of a Trade set up with the Double Bottom or Bounce
off of 4.145

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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Post a chart when you get a chance. I do not look at MACD etc. It will be interesting to see how you look at 15 minutes spike and MACD combo. My trade was just based off bullish trend pullback long.

As usual i tried to act cute. After getting out from long shorted NG. Luckliy realized it's not the right thing to do and got out with little damage.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Adding this Contract to my watch list , as it seems to move Decent this time of the year.
posting 1H with Bullish Structure....Failed A down present.....do you see it ?
This was a Good Trade set up at just before London Open...i am still a sleep.

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  #1037 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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CL - looks like nice volume came in around 78.30 area this morning. 8.30 am employement numbers due which can set the tone for rest of the day in ES, TF, GC , US $ etc



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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How to reduce pressure while trading? One of the ways i am trying to reduce pressure is not to worry about every twist and turn. My main job is to identify trend and then trade with it. Beauty of trading with the trend is that one does not have to live and die by so called " Perfect Entries and No Heat". I do not like to take heat on my trades but there is no way around it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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GOLD.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I pary every day that instruements within bearish trend bounce.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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6A..Giant Spike up bar on 1H...Bearish bar.
waiting for possible Entry for Short Position....Not sure thing yet for me.
I could be Completely Wrong on this...have to wait.

I think i am Wrong....at least it looks like a No go to be Fully Bearish till we see who is in Control.

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 Surly 
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For now I see CL as triangulating (slowly forming a "triangle" or consolidation) after the big spike down to 76. Because we are well within the range of 2 days ago I am thinking of today as an "inside" day until something exciting happens. I just can't get interested until we get up to 79.50 or down to 77.00 as indicated on this chart. Once OR forms there might be something to do based on how the market reacts around ORH/ORL and the open but I'm not holding my breath.

I thank MFB for helping me to start pulling my head out of my ass and start waiting more and thinking less.


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  #1043 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
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....I thank MFB for helping me to start pulling my head out of my ass and start waiting more and thinking less.
@Surly.......That is the Best Principal to follow.

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 mfbreakout 
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Anyone who is short from 79.10 area can said a THANK YOU check to. The ones who show up everyday but NO THANKS can keep themselves busy with their favourite passtime by scratching their----------.

NO day dreaming allowed,
Patience Blvd,
Indicators free Universe, 90210.

NOTE: By THANKS i do not mean hitting Thanks tab here. This special group do not maintain a journal of their own to learn and help fellow traders or do no contribute to futures.io (formerly BMT) community in general by sharing their knowledge. Lot of traders do not have journals but they share whatever they can by posting within their area of interest. That's all one needs to contribute.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Surly 
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I was a bit late getting into this as I was having trouble with my data connection (not getting realtime for several instruments). The question is, where to take 1 off? My first look will be the open or vwap around 78.50-60 and then I will re-evaluate.


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 mfbreakout 
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The more attempts are made to break 79.50 area- higher the probability of breaking it. But i am holding some shorts and will keep adding to shorts till evidence proves it. Looks like we may be stuck in 79.50 to 78.30 trading box.

By breaking 79.50 area i do not mean price going above it. By breaking i mean that it's such an obvious break that even a NOVICE trader can see it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Gold- betting on some pullback.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I guess Orange Juice futures were waiting for me to get out and then drop 5% over next 2 days. At least i did not try to go long after getting out of short. I am sure on smaller time frame one could have picked some ticks from the long side but it's not worth the effort. All the efforts should be used to trade with the trend and identify short set ups in case of OJ.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Surly 
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I don't want to distract from the thread but I wanted to post a personal observation about my own trading that may help others and hopefully also help me. We are at the top of a clear range in CL today and have been chopping around up by 79 - 79.50 for almost 2 hours. I've also observed that we've stayed above the OR (7:30-8:15 cst) and IB (8:00 - 8:30 CST) for most of the day as well as above the Open and VWAP. So the day seems to be bullish.

Under these circumstances I have a difficult time shorting from the top of the range and I also get sucked into taking a long position looking for the breakout to happen. I often make up reason for why the breakout will happen and generally screw things up as long as I'm thinking in this way. I over-estimate the chance of there being a breakout - why do I do this? I think it is due to "Availability Bias" - this is where you over-estimate the probability of something because the memories you have of that event are more VIVID and emotionally-charged, in other words more available to memory. So you think these rare occurrences (breakouts and trend days) are more common than they are. Breakouts and Trend days are much more rare than Range days and Range behavior - the key is to TRADE in line with this knowledge. I'm working on this.

Availability Bias on Vimeo

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 mfbreakout 
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Surly View Post
I don't want to distract from the thread but I wanted to post a personal observation about my own trading that may help others and hopefully also help me. We are at the top of a clear range in CL today and have been chopping around up by 79 - 79.50 for almost 2 hours. I've also observed that we've stayed above the OR (7:30-8:15 cst) and IB (8:00 - 8:30 CST) for most of the day as well as above the Open and VWAP. So the day seems to be bullish.

Under these circumstances I have a difficult time shorting from the top of the range and I also get sucked into taking a long position looking for the breakout to happen. I often make up reason for why the breakout will happen and generally screw things up as long as I'm thinking in this way. I over-estimate the chance of there being a breakout - why do I do this? I think it is due to "Availability Bias" - this is where you over-estimate the probability of something because the memories you have of that event are more VIVID and emotionally-charged, in other words more available to memory. So you think these rare occurrences (breakouts and trend days) are more common than they are. Breakouts and Trend days are much more rare than Range days and Range behavior - the key is to TRADE in line with this knowledge. I'm working on this.

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This is not distraction. This is what journal is about. I have interacted with many traders over last 4 years. In my experience traders who improve, move to next level share experiences, ask questions etc. Please never feel that you are distracting.

Thx



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 mfbreakout 
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The more attempts are made to break 79.50 area- higher the probability of breaking it. But i am holding some shorts and will keep adding to shorts till evidence proves it. Looks like we may be stuck in 79.50 to 78.30 trading box.

By breaking 79.50 area i do not mean price going above it. By breaking i mean that it's such an obvious break that even a NOVICE trader can see it.


Since 9.30 when pirce got to 79.20 area- i was only interested in shorts. I used to trade breakout and get hosed all the time. Why i kept shorting? A trader needs to ask following questions;

1) What is daily ATR. 2) What is weekly ATR 3) Is there a reason for breakout beyond weekly ATR based upon macro events.

Weekly ATR for CL is around 400 ticks. This week low of 75.84 to 79.40= 356 ticks. I am not aware of any macro reson for CL to break out of weekly ATR on friday afternoon. This is as SIMPLE of analysis and probability based trading i try to do.

MOST IMPORTANT: CL could have easily gone to $80 also. It's not written in bible that CL will saty within weekly ATR etc. A trader should be aware of this and trade accordingly. I simply would have added to shorts if there was no conviction and price was just buzzing upward like a fly. A fly either needs to FLY away or it will keep getting smacked.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ATR based trades do not work all the time. Still holding shorts. Later will do analysis, weigh out risk etc and decide what to do.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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If i had to trade NG today- it was from short side for reversion to the mean set up. Traders who can not embrace risk and have convictions based off their set ups will generally have rough time as a day trader.
Everyone wants perfect entries, low risk, no heat and on and on. I find that if i do not FOCUS so much on perfection and give myself a fighting chance- then the GAME is ON. A discretionary trader can not and should not seek pefection of a computer. Discretionary traders have limitations and one should accept these limitations.

Traders who can not handle imprefections should focus their energies on automated trading. Just make sure your automated trading is at par with GS, JPM etc. Since i do not have any skill set to develop automated trading systems to comptete with GS, MS etc. I am happy with being a discretionary trader and accept limitations of a discretionary trader.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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6A..Giant Spike up bar on 1H...Bearish bar.
waiting for possible Entry for Short Position....Not sure thing yet for me.
I could be Completely Wrong on this...have to wait.

I think i am Wrong....at least it looks like a No go to be Fully Bearish till we see who is in Control.

I was Faked out by what i Thought was a Giant Spiked up Hourly bar on Friday just after Non Farm payroll.
The Fact that we were Under Support from 10-3-14 Low, and that level had been Retested i Thought we were going
to Start another Leg Down, as that Giant 1H bar looked Bearish at the time.
But based on 1H Divergence as well as 4H Divergence it told the True Intention of the Market.
Just wanted to post what the 1H & 4H are showing.
We could be headed to Fill the Gap,.....but first Resistance would be .8686, and then Bottom of Gap .8736....
as you can see from the Charts what Levels of Resistance we are headed toward.
I am Not Currently in this Market...

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 mfbreakout 
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NG just keeps gaping up. Gap got filled this morning.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short KC with weekly/daily trend. I have not taken a long ( and whenever i tried long thinking rubber band is too stretched to the downside i got smacked. It's very difficult to pick a stop loss location when counter trending) in KC in some time.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ATR based trades do not work all the time. Still holding shorts. Later will do analysis, weigh out risk etc and decide what to do.

Not sure if 1150 target for GC will materialize but there were no longs at intra day highs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Ignored Rules of the game and got caught from the long side till i got into my senses. Still holding shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NG just keeps gaping up. Gap got filled this morning.

Added to short around ORH.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Not sure if 1150 target for GC will materialize but there were no longs at intra day highs.

Cover 1164, 1154 and holding rest. There was no reason to cove raround 1164 but flashes of intra day down were on my mind from Friday as i was adding to shorts. I took some off to get pressure off so that i can hold the trades.

I covered CL shorts around 77.50 but there were no longs for me. Cl from Globex high of 79.85 to 77.40( thats 240 ticks) . Break of 77 can open the flood gates to the down side since it's never a good sign when CL can not get a bid after 240 ticks to the down side. It will confirm extreme weakness in CL. Let's all pary that we get a bounce so that we can put on a new short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Surly 
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Ignored Rules of the game and got caught from the long side till i got into my senses. Still holding shorts.

Aarrrgh. I got fooled by this as well. The strong move up in the European session threw me off. Its done that a hundred times before and each time I am somehow thrown off by it. We were struggling with the high of friday and the IB and OR highs and couldn't stay above those references. Even after we failed above all these references and chopped around for 10 minutes around 8:40 cst I was still unable to short the market. My journal entry indicates that I was in wait and see mode because of the low confidence open - choppy, low participation order flow in the first 30 minutes of trading. These are all excuses - the setup was there and I need to be able to see it and put a trade on with a reasonable risk limit. Still learning.

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 mfbreakout 
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Surly View Post
Aarrrgh. I got fooled by this as well. The strong move up in the European session threw me off. Its done that a hundred times before and each time I am somehow thrown off by it. We were struggling with the high of friday and the IB and OR highs and couldn't stay above those references. Even after we failed above all these references and chopped around for 10 minutes around 8:40 cst I was still unable to short the market. My journal entry indicates that I was in wait and see mode because of the low confidence open - choppy, low participation order flow in the first 30 minutes of trading. These are all excuses - the setup was there and I need to be able to see it and put a trade on with a reasonable risk limit. Still learning.

" the setup was there and I need to be able to see it and put a trade on with a reasonable risk limit."

The moment REASONABLE RISK enters in my mind- it makes me weak/doubtful etc. What is reasonable from whose standard? My standard does not count and since we all like to BUILD our own little universe or frame of refrence- it has no value as far as market goes. But one has to pick some refrence point so it's OK to pick one as long it's just not based off what one can afford to risk/loose. Just iamgine what must be going through my mind as i shorted 78.50. I must have cursed my self a dozen times for not waiting price to come higher, i am shorting in the whole, i started remebering something from the past in the same situation when CL bounced 50 ticks against me and then reversed and on and on.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Surly 
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The moment REASONABLE RISK enters in my mind- it makes me weak/doubtful etc. What is reasonable from whose standard? My standard does not count and since we all like to BUILD our own little universe or frame of refrence- it has no value as far as market goes. But one has to pick some refrence point so it's OK to pick one as long it's just not based off what one can afford to risk/loose.

Yes! "reasonable risk" has to be based on market generated information. I'm entering the trade because of market-generated information (can't make it above the OR and hold/follow-through then can't hold above high of yesterday) and so I have to determine my stop based on the same market-generated information.

In this case, if I'm trading a failed A up and also the failure to stay above the HOY then my stop needs to be either above the HOY or above the rth high of day. The reason being that if I'm trading short based on no buy orders coming in above the OR or above the HOY then that's where I'm wrong.

Trading with "reasonable" stops like "oh, I will risk 10 ticks or I will risk 20 ticks" is a losing game. One that I've played long enough to know that its a losing game. Thanks for the reminder.

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 mfbreakout 
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A up when weekly/monthly trend is bearish has no value/little value.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sterling729 
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Hey,

Been looking at your journal and enjoy seeing your breakdown of how you may enter and manage a trade.

Coming from a FX background, I mainly use technical setups with price action bars (i.e. pinbars, engulfing bars, etc.). Seeing your posts, it seem you (and most other equity traders) don't consider them. Only price levels and movements to and from them. Just to clarify, you don't utilize such price action bars, especially on the shorter time frames do you? If you have an answer, what's your opinion of them when analyzing a stock chart in a short timeframe?

Cheers,
Luke

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 mfbreakout 
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sterling729 View Post
Hey,

Been looking at your journal and enjoy seeing your breakdown of how you may enter and manage a trade.

Coming from a FX background, I mainly use technical setups with price action bars (i.e. pinbars, engulfing bars, etc.). Seeing your posts, it seem you (and most other equity traders) don't consider them. Only price levels and movements to and from them. Just to clarify, you don't utilize such price action bars, especially on the shorter time frames do you? If you have an answer, what's your opinion of them when analyzing a stock chart in a short timeframe?

Cheers,
Luke

Hi Luke,

I do look at PRICE ACTION bars. However, i look at them within areas of support/resistance. My intraday support/resistance are based of daily/weekly range. If ADR of CL is around 200 ticks, then i am interested in looking at price action bars once CL has moved ADR or a combination of ADR. Anything in between has little value for me except when out of blue massive buying/selling shows up before ADR is hit. Then that point becomes an important refrence point. Attached 3 charts- weekly, daily and intra day charts are my main charts.

I do not trade stocks. Mostly futures and trying my hand at forex also.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Ended up being a Scalping day for me....Scalps in GC...NQ....CL.
I am posting the one that got away= ZS....i would have traded if i had seen it...not enough monitors ....
Nice set up, and move up.
October USDA Report told of Record Crop, so Fundamentally we should be headed Lower, but not so at least for now.

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 mfbreakout 
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Short ZS yesterday. Held some cars overnight and added to shorts into bounce this morning. On the pain train. Basically gave away gains from yesterday ZS trade. Context for short has not changed so staying short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NG long.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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CL only shorts on my mind.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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CL only shorts on my mind.

76.40 area got tested twice. Once during Globex session and one during NY session. Out flat 76.64 flat. Whenever it breaks with CONVICTION- it wil be worth waiting for it. Otherwise CL will be back up to 80 area at some point.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short ZS yesterday. Held some cars overnight and added to shorts into bounce this morning. On the pain train. Basically gave away gains from yesterday ZS trade. Context for short has not changed so staying short.

stopped out and long 1047. Out some 1064 and holding rest.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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This is what i was waiting for ...the Pull back at Support Area.
Nice Leg up to .6868

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 mfbreakout 
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stopped out and long 1047. Out some 1064 and holding rest.

I can not believe that i traded Crude for 4 years day in and day out and never looked atGC, NG, ZS, KC, CC etc. Looking back i think the main reason was that these beauties require wider stop loss than i felt comfortable with. What a dumb ass reason/logic.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ZS up and up. I am going flat and will wait for a pullback to try long again.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Weekly, Daily, 4 hours and 1 hour all mixed together to put on a short and long trade in ZS. I use same logic/set ups for every instruement and trade. When i do not follow the order or try to make something when things do not line up, -ve surprises come in spades. I use lower time frame to scalp etc but REAL gains are made from following bigger time frame set ups.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ZS up and up. I am going flat and will wait for a pullback to try long again.

Cover some of the shorts around 1071- on reversion to the mean pullback.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Long GC 1161 area.

From Bloomberg

" Gold at a four-year low should find solace after rates at which bullion is lent for dollars turned negative, signaling tighter supply, Natixis SA said.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the three-month gold forward offered rate has turned negative on a weekly basis. Prices rose in three of the past four times this occurred since last year. There’s now a “limited window” to bet on a gold rebound, Natixis economist Evariste Lefeuvre said in a Nov. 10 report.

A form of backwardation, when earlier prices are more expensive than for later dates, the negative GOFO rate signals that dealers are paid to lend metal against cash, rather than paying for the privilege. As bullion slid to the lowest since April 2010 this month on a stronger dollar and outlook for higher interest rates, demand for U.S. Mint coins increased.

“There is clearly an optional pattern since the inversion was almost always followed by a rise in prices,” Lefeuvre wrote in the report. “We would recommend a tactical long position on gold since the recent inversion has been particularly severe. We maintain our bearish view on gold in the medium run though.”

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,156.89 an ounce in London yesterday and is about 40 percent below the record reached in September 2011. Prices will fall below $1,000 by mid-next year, according to the Natixis report."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Surly 
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While I'm waiting for oil to recover from its recent move, here are some pretty pictures. I started late this morning and so saw the failed A down after 8:30 cst. I am reading the current situation as a HL on the "longer term" chart after yesterday's double bottom. For the time being I have a long bias but I want to see Oil stay above the ORH and the Open for me to remain convinced that we are in fact in a trend day up. Otherwise I would favor rotational trades with a bullish bias.




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 mfbreakout 
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KC, CC and ZS are on my mind along with usual CL and NG. short in CC and KC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Had to Short on Divergence set up....took some heat as ZS tried to Test Higher....held on and banked some Profit.

JUMPED OUT WAY TOO SOON AS USUAL.....

Last 2 Charts shows Details Evidence to take Short at Resistance....Several Signs

-Divergence on Daily at Resistance
-Divergence on 15 BR
-Divergence on 12 BR

Large Volume bar formed on this Day...see Daily Chart.
October USDA Report told of Large Crop in Soybeans.
USDA estimated the U.S. soybean crop at a record 3.958 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from October and a hair below trade forecasts averaging 3.967 billion. The crop is inching closer to the once unthought-of 4 billion-bushel mark.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/usda-trims-bin-busting-u-173741727.html

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 mfbreakout 
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Surly says he is bullish- long. 78.20 yesterday high needs to get taken out and then an exhausation bar to the upside will be A+ short set up. Otherwise box trading during lunch hour.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Surly says he is bullish- long. 78.20 yesterday high needs to get taken out and then an exhausation bar to the upside will be A+ short set up. Otherwise box trading during lunch hour.

CL does certian things between 12 and 1 pm on most days. Today is no exception. I traded CL for 4 years straight out- it has some benefits in terms of scalp and knowing what happens on Tuesday VS Wednesday etc. In summary there is nothing going on or has changed as far as CL macro bearish trend is concerned. Never ever take a new position on a 45 minutes OR breakout or any other breakouts in a mcro bearish trend. Always on pullbacks. There is no such thing bullish or bearish within ATR. Macro CL is bearish and daily games being played as usual to hose traders who trade candles , CCI overlay with who knows what etc.

Algos are not taking money from macro traders. They are taking money from me and you. I always try to remeber that. I have lost more money trying to trade breakout than any other set ups. My screen name is a reminder to myself of all the pains i endured during first 2 -3 years and to avoid it at all cost when macro trend is bearish.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Whi i am not touching CC from the long side?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Surly 
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Surly says he is bullish- long. 78.20 yesterday high needs to get taken out and then an exhausation bar to the upside will be A+ short set up. Otherwise box trading during lunch hour.

Thanks for this - I'm starting to see how CL works like this: lunch hour, games (flush above HOY), etc. The mistake I made today was getting scared off of longs by the flush down into 77.25 at 10 am cst. I'm not experienced enough to realize this is just traders (algos, scalpers, whatever) playing games to get the small guys like me thinking short so they can but a bunch and drive it back up to flush out the stops above the next reference above (HOY in this case).

I'm starting to see this sort of thing but not quick enough yet to be crushing it. I'll keep working and keep watching...

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 Surly 
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Never ever take a new position on a 45 minutes OR breakout or any other breakouts in a mcro bearish trend. Always on pullbacks.

I like this rule. I'm writing this down...

Here's some music while I wait.


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 mfbreakout 
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Surly View Post
I like this rule. I'm writing this down...

Here's some music while I wait.


In future you can use following command to post video directly vs link

[yt] paste link here from you tube [/yt]




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I have been watching this for a week now and making notes as not to make same mistake again. I have been busy with other instruements otherwise i would have shorted the damn thing.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ZS up and up. I am going flat and will wait for a pullback to try long again.

Trying long 1048 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Mysterious ways of CL. CL is at critical junction to decide whether next leg down is in order. At the same time there are lot of other interest groups/ traders who seems to want to control CL from next leg down. CL keeps on bouncing from 76.40 area.

In the absence of any visible sell volume i been assuming lows are in till DOE report on Thursday. I covered my short from 77.94 area around 77.50. As CL was buzzing around ORL area- i kept buying with an average price of 77.30. I was looking for test of 78 into the close. CL goes to 77.50 and then reverses to 76.60. I hit market order and out got around 77.84. This reversal took away almost all of days gains as i was pretty loaded.

I am short now from 76.90 area. Took some off 76.70 to recover some gains and holding rest to see if 76.40 gets broken. It will either gets broken or CL is going back up. There are no rewards without risk except in fantasy land.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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How much out of potential gains is one willing to put on line to test set ups is always the question.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Back to Test Support at 2849

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 mfbreakout 
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Back to Test Support at 2849

Rather than support i would call this area where shorts booked profits or were exhausated. For support on which we can count on with confidence to try long will be an area from which a significant turnaround came to change direction of the trend.

It's sure is a good area to cover shorts as daily and weekly ATR had been hit for CC. I am holding some cars to see if next leg down is in order.



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 sandptrader 
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Crude oil futures decline as OPEC supply outlook weighs.
Crude oil futures decline as OPEC supply outlook weighs By Investing.com

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 mfbreakout 
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Do not mess with OR. ZS pulled back more than i expected.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Crude oil futures decline as OPEC supply outlook weighs.
Crude oil futures decline as OPEC supply outlook weighs By Investing.com


Out of this news, i was focused on following this morning

" According to the agency, the decline was led by Saudi Arabia, which cut production by approximately 69,000 barrels per day to 9.6 million."

A production cut by Saudi Arabia- was the reason for my longs this morning. But when CL reversed and did not reacted to this news , i realized maybe something else is underway and therefore shorted 76.90 area. I hope i don't get fooled twice today. Constant flexibility and adjustment is needed to survive. Otherwise traders wonder what happened to bullish/bearish candles they were so closely watching all day long.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Rather than support i would call this area where shorts booked profits or were exhausated. For support on which we can count on with confidence to try long will be an area from which a significant turnaround came to change direction of the trend.

It's sure is a good area to cover shorts as daily and weekly ATR had been hit for CC. I am holding some cars to see if next leg down is in order.

I am looking for this level to Break...waiting to see.
Just a Land Mark to look for trades around the Price level.....Strong Down Trend....i only started watching some other
Futures Markets since i seen you were also following them......i have not traded in these in years....

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 mfbreakout 
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4.30 pm today API news came. I do not know what the report findings are but based upon price action my short set up is not looking good. I was thinking that the way CL reacted today into the close is an early tell sign to API report.

Still holding shorts but cut down the size. All this drama for nothing. Key point is that one has to take all the set ups. One can not cherry pick.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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mfbreakout View Post
4.30 pm today API news came. I do not know what the report findings are but based upon price action my short set up is not looking good. I was thinking that the way CL reacted today into the close is an early tell sign to API report.

Still holding shorts but cut down the size. All this drama for nothing. Key point is that one has to take all the set ups. One can not cherry pick.

Is this the Report....i think this is not.
According to the IEA report, the use of coal and oil will steadily plateau, while natural gas use and consumption of low-carbon fuels like nuclear power and wind and solar will grow the strongest.
IEA: Global Energy Demand Could Outpace Supply By International Business Times

News and Reports are too much to keep up with while Trading.....

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 alejo 
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mfbreakout View Post
I can not believe that i traded Crude for 4 years day in and day out and never looked atGC, NG, ZS, KC, CC etc. Looking back i think the main reason was that these beauties require wider stop loss than i felt comfortable with. What a dumb ass reason/logic.

i can not believe it that before your advice i was strugling if use 10tick or 16tick stop to get ...?
now all in points
in this test i have to reach 450points in 10 days
today i got the half



thanks T

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