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COMMON SENSE


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Updated November 27th 2014 by mfbreakout
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COMMON SENSE

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  #1051 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
The more attempts are made to break 79.50 area- higher the probability of breaking it. But i am holding some shorts and will keep adding to shorts till evidence proves it. Looks like we may be stuck in 79.50 to 78.30 trading box.

By breaking 79.50 area i do not mean price going above it. By breaking i mean that it's such an obvious break that even a NOVICE trader can see it.


Since 9.30 when pirce got to 79.20 area- i was only interested in shorts. I used to trade breakout and get hosed all the time. Why i kept shorting? A trader needs to ask following questions;

1) What is daily ATR. 2) What is weekly ATR 3) Is there a reason for breakout beyond weekly ATR based upon macro events.

Weekly ATR for CL is around 400 ticks. This week low of 75.84 to 79.40= 356 ticks. I am not aware of any macro reson for CL to break out of weekly ATR on friday afternoon. This is as SIMPLE of analysis and probability based trading i try to do.

MOST IMPORTANT: CL could have easily gone to $80 also. It's not written in bible that CL will saty within weekly ATR etc. A trader should be aware of this and trade accordingly. I simply would have added to shorts if there was no conviction and price was just buzzing upward like a fly. A fly either needs to FLY away or it will keep getting smacked.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1052 (permalink)
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ATR based trades do not work all the time. Still holding shorts. Later will do analysis, weigh out risk etc and decide what to do.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1053 (permalink)
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If i had to trade NG today- it was from short side for reversion to the mean set up. Traders who can not embrace risk and have convictions based off their set ups will generally have rough time as a day trader.
Everyone wants perfect entries, low risk, no heat and on and on. I find that if i do not FOCUS so much on perfection and give myself a fighting chance- then the GAME is ON. A discretionary trader can not and should not seek pefection of a computer. Discretionary traders have limitations and one should accept these limitations.

Traders who can not handle imprefections should focus their energies on automated trading. Just make sure your automated trading is at par with GS, JPM etc. Since i do not have any skill set to develop automated trading systems to comptete with GS, MS etc. I am happy with being a discretionary trader and accept limitations of a discretionary trader.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1054 (permalink)
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Faked out


sandptrader View Post
6A..Giant Spike up bar on 1H...Bearish bar.
waiting for possible Entry for Short Position....Not sure thing yet for me.
I could be Completely Wrong on this...have to wait.

I think i am Wrong....at least it looks like a No go to be Fully Bearish till we see who is in Control.

I was Faked out by what i Thought was a Giant Spiked up Hourly bar on Friday just after Non Farm payroll.
The Fact that we were Under Support from 10-3-14 Low, and that level had been Retested i Thought we were going
to Start another Leg Down, as that Giant 1H bar looked Bearish at the time.
But based on 1H Divergence as well as 4H Divergence it told the True Intention of the Market.
Just wanted to post what the 1H & 4H are showing.
We could be headed to Fill the Gap,.....but first Resistance would be .8686, and then Bottom of Gap .8736....
as you can see from the Charts what Levels of Resistance we are headed toward.
I am Not Currently in this Market...

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  #1055 (permalink)
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NG just keeps gaping up. Gap got filled this morning.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Short KC with weekly/daily trend. I have not taken a long ( and whenever i tried long thinking rubber band is too stretched to the downside i got smacked. It's very difficult to pick a stop loss location when counter trending) in KC in some time.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
ATR based trades do not work all the time. Still holding shorts. Later will do analysis, weigh out risk etc and decide what to do.

Not sure if 1150 target for GC will materialize but there were no longs at intra day highs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1058 (permalink)
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Ignored Rules of the game and got caught from the long side till i got into my senses. Still holding shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
NG just keeps gaping up. Gap got filled this morning.

Added to short around ORH.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1060 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Not sure if 1150 target for GC will materialize but there were no longs at intra day highs.

Cover 1164, 1154 and holding rest. There was no reason to cove raround 1164 but flashes of intra day down were on my mind from Friday as i was adding to shorts. I took some off to get pressure off so that i can hold the trades.

I covered CL shorts around 77.50 but there were no longs for me. Cl from Globex high of 79.85 to 77.40( thats 240 ticks) . Break of 77 can open the flood gates to the down side since it's never a good sign when CL can not get a bid after 240 ticks to the down side. It will confirm extreme weakness in CL. Let's all pary that we get a bounce so that we can put on a new short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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November 27, 2014


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