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COMMON SENSE
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Created: by mfbreakout Attachments:812

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COMMON SENSE

  #1041 (permalink)
Elite Member
Valdosta, GA. U.S.A
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra ,NT, TOS
Favorite Futures: 6E, 6J, CL, GC
 
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6A

6A..Giant Spike up bar on 1H...Bearish bar.
waiting for possible Entry for Short Position....Not sure thing yet for me.
I could be Completely Wrong on this...have to wait.

I think i am Wrong....at least it looks like a No go to be Fully Bearish till we see who is in Control.

Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-6a-1h-bear.png  

Last edited by sandptrader; November 7th, 2014 at 10:13 AM.
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  #1042 (permalink)
Elite Member
denver, colorado
 
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CL 8:15 am cst

For now I see CL as triangulating (slowly forming a "triangle" or consolidation) after the big spike down to 76. Because we are well within the range of 2 days ago I am thinking of today as an "inside" day until something exciting happens. I just can't get interested until we get up to 79.50 or down to 77.00 as indicated on this chart. Once OR forms there might be something to do based on how the market reacts around ORH/ORL and the open but I'm not holding my breath.

I thank MFB for helping me to start pulling my head out of my ass and start waiting more and thinking less.

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Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1043 (permalink)
Elite Member
Valdosta, GA. U.S.A
 
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....I thank MFB for helping me to start pulling my head out of my ass and start waiting more and thinking less.
@Surly.......That is the Best Principal to follow.

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  #1044 (permalink)
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Trading

Anyone who is short from 79.10 area can said a THANK YOU check to. The ones who show up everyday but NO THANKS can keep themselves busy with their favourite passtime by scratching their----------.

NO day dreaming allowed,
Patience Blvd,
Indicators free Universe, 90210.

NOTE: By THANKS i do not mean hitting Thanks tab here. This special group do not maintain a journal of their own to learn and help fellow traders or do no contribute to futures.io (formerly BMT) community in general by sharing their knowledge. Lot of traders do not have journals but they share whatever they can by posting within their area of interest. That's all one needs to contribute.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-11-07_0748_cl_long.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 7th, 2014 at 11:53 AM. Reason: chart
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  #1045 (permalink)
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trading from resistance

I was a bit late getting into this as I was having trouble with my data connection (not getting realtime for several instruments). The question is, where to take 1 off? My first look will be the open or vwap around 78.50-60 and then I will re-evaluate.

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Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1046 (permalink)
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Trading

The more attempts are made to break 79.50 area- higher the probability of breaking it. But i am holding some shorts and will keep adding to shorts till evidence proves it. Looks like we may be stuck in 79.50 to 78.30 trading box.

By breaking 79.50 area i do not mean price going above it. By breaking i mean that it's such an obvious break that even a NOVICE trader can see it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 7th, 2014 at 12:15 PM.
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  #1047 (permalink)
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Trading

Gold- betting on some pullback.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-11-07_1125_gc.png  
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  #1048 (permalink)
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Trading

I guess Orange Juice futures were waiting for me to get out and then drop 5% over next 2 days. At least i did not try to go long after getting out of short. I am sure on smaller time frame one could have picked some ticks from the long side but it's not worth the effort. All the efforts should be used to trade with the trend and identify short set ups in case of OJ.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-11-05_1331_oj_short.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-11-07_1209_oj.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 7th, 2014 at 01:21 PM.
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  #1049 (permalink)
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Availability Bias and Breakouts

I don't want to distract from the thread but I wanted to post a personal observation about my own trading that may help others and hopefully also help me. We are at the top of a clear range in CL today and have been chopping around up by 79 - 79.50 for almost 2 hours. I've also observed that we've stayed above the OR (7:30-8:15 cst) and IB (8:00 - 8:30 CST) for most of the day as well as above the Open and VWAP. So the day seems to be bullish.

Under these circumstances I have a difficult time shorting from the top of the range and I also get sucked into taking a long position looking for the breakout to happen. I often make up reason for why the breakout will happen and generally screw things up as long as I'm thinking in this way. I over-estimate the chance of there being a breakout - why do I do this? I think it is due to "Availability Bias" - this is where you over-estimate the probability of something because the memories you have of that event are more VIVID and emotionally-charged, in other words more available to memory. So you think these rare occurrences (breakouts and trend days) are more common than they are. Breakouts and Trend days are much more rare than Range days and Range behavior - the key is to TRADE in line with this knowledge. I'm working on this.


Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1050 (permalink)
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Trading



Surly View Post
I don't want to distract from the thread but I wanted to post a personal observation about my own trading that may help others and hopefully also help me. We are at the top of a clear range in CL today and have been chopping around up by 79 - 79.50 for almost 2 hours. I've also observed that we've stayed above the OR (7:30-8:15 cst) and IB (8:00 - 8:30 CST) for most of the day as well as above the Open and VWAP. So the day seems to be bullish.

Under these circumstances I have a difficult time shorting from the top of the range and I also get sucked into taking a long position looking for the breakout to happen. I often make up reason for why the breakout will happen and generally screw things up as long as I'm thinking in this way. I over-estimate the chance of there being a breakout - why do I do this? I think it is due to "Availability Bias" - this is where you over-estimate the probability of something because the memories you have of that event are more VIVID and emotionally-charged, in other words more available to memory. So you think these rare occurrences (breakouts and trend days) are more common than they are. Breakouts and Trend days are much more rare than Range days and Range behavior - the key is to TRADE in line with this knowledge. I'm working on this.



This is not distraction. This is what journal is about. I have interacted with many traders over last 4 years. In my experience traders who improve, move to next level share experiences, ask questions etc. Please never feel that you are distracting.

Thx



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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