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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #1021 (permalink)
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robert880 View Post
What made you decide to start shorting at 78.8 -79.20?

The reasons are right within my post you are referring to. When price moves beyond avergae daily range ( ATR) i am looking for shorts for a pullback. It should be obvious from my posts that i am not trading precise levels. I am trading context and probabilities. Lot of traders get confused with precise entries/exits. Short 78.80 then add around 79.20 etc shows that i am trading a rnage not exact levels.

I do not beleive in exact levels since there are none. It's easier to identify a range.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1022 (permalink)
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Draghi on tap tomorrow. Big implications for European markets , Euro $ etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1023 (permalink)
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CC


Working with TOS Charting for Longer term Analysis...and thought i would draw some lines...not Forecasting just posting Relevant info.
Failed A up on Daily in the form of Pennant ....4H showing the Pennant clearly, and Breakout.
I will start looking at these time frames at End of Day...i been missing out on the Bigger picture...
Support from 5-12-14 @2849....21 Ticks below...then Low from 1-5-14 @2660
Posting 4H and Daily and Weekly Charts.

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COMMON SENSE-cc-12-14-4h-11-5-14thursday.png   COMMON SENSE-cc-12-14-daily.png   COMMON SENSE-cc-weekly.png  
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  #1024 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
1) Holding shorts in CL into Globex session around 78.90 area.

2) Holding shorts in CC and NG.


For Drd13,

Conviction and patience is a virtue. Try to look at trading landscape from BIG picture point of view just like you ask your students to look at BIG picture. Long refrence points does not mean price has to get exactly in that area to try longs.

NOTE: I never ever hold globex position if a major catalyst is up in the air which can impact Crude price behaviour.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; November 6th, 2014 at 09:22 AM.
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  #1025 (permalink)
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CL Short

what is the Target ?.....CL Short from 78.22 x 5...I am looking at T1 77.68

FLAT....77.84

EARLY...TOO EARLY.

Tried re-entry Short....but looking Bullish so exit for small Profit....Watching...have to leave soon...too many things going on this week.

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COMMON SENSE-cl-short-78.22.jpg   COMMON SENSE-cl-12-14-12-betterrenko-11_6_2014.jpg  

Last edited by sandptrader; November 6th, 2014 at 10:23 AM.
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  #1026 (permalink)
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Draghi and the ECB


mfbreakout View Post
Draghi on tap tomorrow. Big implications for European markets , Euro $ etc.

Press conference just finished. I think the biggest take home is that Draghi said very clearly that the ECB balance sheet would continue to expand while "other CB" balance sheets will contract (here he must be referring mainly to the US Fed). Japan is also clearly going to be going through a period of expanding their balance sheet as well. The US will eventually begin to contract their balance sheet and this is likely to occur sometime in the next year or so and Draghi knows this. So I guess I would expect his statement to mean that the ECB will be easing for years to come and this trend in the strength of the USD will continue. Much of the weakness in Oil over the last few months reflects this reality.

I think the implication for the price of WTI on the CME exchange is that it will continue to over- and under-shoot the reaction to the value of the USD but that it will generally be weakened by strength in the dollar (nothing new here). As we know, trends in the currency markets can last for years and I think we are going to see the Euro continue its slide against the dollar over the coming months/years.

FWIW.

edit: And as they say "buy the rumor, sell the fact" or in this case vice versa - Oil has just made a 150 tick rotation down which is a measured move with the move down from yesterday's high. Perhaps this favors longs at these prices (77.50 or so).

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert

Last edited by Surly; November 6th, 2014 at 10:43 AM. Reason: additional comment
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  #1027 (permalink)
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6A

Shorted below Major Support @ 85.83...Market turn back Higher...so Exit @ 85.75...8 ticks....on this Trade i was not
Watching smaller Chart when Bullish Signal was generated....finish what i was doing and Exit...no time this morning to focus.
I would have been at $ 3500 Area on my Account for today if i had Exited when i should have...but not watching.

See you guys later today....got to go.

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  #1028 (permalink)
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Hi Surly,

" Oil has just made a 150 tick rotation down which is a measured move with the move down from yesterday's high. Perhaps this favors longs at these prices (77.50 or so)."

In my experience highest probability trades as an example for longs this morning needs to have following ;
1) A FLUSH DOWN and then reversal of it. I put on maxium size when this set up lines up. So far, this morning this has not happened.
2) Absent of above condition everything else is an educated guess. With an educated guess one can ONLY use a range as a refrence poinrs, for example 150-200 ticks rotation.
Following are my trades after i covered my shorts around 77.75 area on short from 78.84.

1) After NY open. Short 77.75. Cover 77.30 area. Reason for short= There were no buyers.
2) Long 77.37. Out 77.76. I used smallest position size since there was NO REVERSAL of flush down. Longs made sense on several fronts. Move from Globex high of 78.90 to 77.10, around 190 ticks plus yesterday Opening range low and so on. But price could have easily gone down and test 76.50 area. I am always aware of that when there is NO FLUSH down.
3) Short with size on bounce from 77.10 to 77.80 area. I am thinking of 2 scenarios. Either price will stay within box of 77 to 78 till 1 pm or will test 76.50.

I will keep shorting as price bounces to 78 area without give me a flush down first and cover some of the shorts as price pulls back to 77.30 area while keeping some shorts on. If buyers come in, i will get long even if CL is at 78. Most probably till 1.30 pm CL will be in a box.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 6th, 2014 at 12:39 PM.
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  #1029 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
In my experience highest probability trades as an example for longs this morning needs to have following ;
1) A FLUSH DOWN and then reversal of it. I put on maxium size when this set up lines up. So far, this morning this has not happened.
2) Absent of above condition everything else is an educated guess. With an educated guess one can ONLY use a range as a refrence poinrs, for example 150-200 ticks rotation.

...
I will keep shorting as price bounces to 78 area without give me a flush down first and cover some of the shorts as price pulls back to 77.30 area. If buyers come in, i will get long if if price is 78. Most probably till 1.30 pm CL will be in a box.

Thanks for this - after I opened a long from 77.50 area I was just not seeing any buying coming in and bailed. When I saw the market flush below the rth low of yest and bounce back up I took a long there. I waited for the market to clear the open - push through it with force but no go so I closed. Now I'm riding another long from just above 77.50 looking for another test of the open from below...

Thanks again - really appreciate your feedback!

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1030 (permalink)
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I have been trading NG for a year now and i can tell now that it trades very similar to NG.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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