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COMMON SENSE
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Created: by mfbreakout Attachments:812

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COMMON SENSE

  #1011 (permalink)
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Trading

Out Flat GC around 1140 before 8.15 am news.

One does need to know the reasons but whenever anything reverses it shows up on charts.

Prepare for Gold Rally If Swiss Bullion Referendum Passes.


" There are people in Switzerland who resent that the country sold away much of its gold last decade. They may be a splinter group of Swiss politics, but they’re a persistent bunch.

And if they get their way in a referendum this month, these voters will make their presence known to gold traders around the world.

The proposal from the “Save Our Swiss Gold” proponents is simple: Force the central bank to build its bullion position up to at least 20 percent of total assets from 8 percent today. Holding 522 billion Swiss francs ($544 billion) of assets in its coffers, the Swiss National Bank would have to buy at least 1,500 tons of gold, costing about $56.3 billion at current prices, to get to the required threshold by 2019."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1012 (permalink)
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A short opportunity over last 5 weeks which i completely missed. It was right there for experienced traders to pick up. As Crude was getting sold a trader should be constantly asking " Who else is getting impacted"? I wonder macro traders as they picked up this trade what kind of stop loss they were using?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-11-05_0807_6a.png  
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  #1013 (permalink)
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For my lady- CL.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 5th, 2014 at 09:38 AM.
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  #1014 (permalink)
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A new Soros


mfbreakout View Post
Out Flat GC around 1140 before 8.15 am news.

One does need to know the reasons but whenever anything reverses it shows up on charts.

Prepare for Gold Rally If Swiss Bullion Referendum Passes.


" There are people in Switzerland who resent that the country sold away much of its gold last decade. They may be a splinter group of Swiss politics, but they’re a persistent bunch.

And if they get their way in a referendum this month, these voters will make their presence known to gold traders around the world.

The proposal from the “Save Our Swiss Gold” proponents is simple: Force the central bank to build its bullion position up to at least 20 percent of total assets from 8 percent today. Holding 522 billion Swiss francs ($544 billion) of assets in its coffers, the Swiss National Bank would have to buy at least 1,500 tons of gold, costing about $56.3 billion at current prices, to get to the required threshold by 2019."

This will rally gold but it might just provide an opportunity for someone like George Soros to come along and break the Swiss National bank. Now that would be a big play!

Short CL from 77.57, expecting rotation down to 77.00-77.20 area. Stop is above 77.80 - if we build momentum above 77.75 I expect we hit at least 78 so I will get out before that.

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update: stopped out just before Open.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert

Last edited by Surly; November 5th, 2014 at 10:13 AM. Reason: update
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  #1015 (permalink)
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@mfbreakout, when you mark down the levels from the previous weeks inventory, do you note the high/low of the day of the report or the high/low of just the reaction that takes place from the report?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #1016 (permalink)
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madLyfe View Post
@mfbreakout, when you mark down the levels from the previous weeks inventory, do you note the high/low of the day of the report or the high/low of just the reaction that takes place from the report?

I write down both levels. High and low of the day and High and low of DOE report day. Let's say DOE high is 83 but days high is 83.50. CL is bouncing from 81 and is now at 82.50. CL has moved 150 ticks. I can short at 82.50 with stop loss above 83 or 83.50. In this case i will place stop loss above 83 and see what happens.

For today DOE high for me is 79.40 and low is 76.40 ( globex low). Any trade i take long or short is with these 2 refrence points to decide on position size etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1017 (permalink)
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DOE report can be MOST profitable trading days- if one has RULES and does not deviate from them. Most importantly KEY is to ignore jumping prices. Do not look at DOME. It will scare the hell out of you. After DOE my P&L was up and down quite a bit and then i had to hold for 50 minutes to get paid. If i am looking at P&L, the GAME is over. After DOE report i was counting as to how high CL can go. Low of 75.84 to 79.40- that's 356 ticks. Or if one takes today's globex low of 76.50, it's 290 ticks. On a macro berasih trend, i will short this all day long. Who is to say CL would stop around 79.40? No guarantees. I am just trading probabilities. If CL kept going higher, a trader either needs to get out of short or keep adding to shorts if it makes sense. I would have kept adding to shorts. Today is a good example of reversion to the mean set up. Anyone can draw channels, lines etc. on a chart and then say CL would stop at 79.40 but have tough time to clear 30 ticks. If one does not understand probabilities game, then it's tough to step up during the heat of the moment.

I did not hold entire position till 77.70 but close enough. Now, CL is in a box and one can make some serious dough with it.

NOTE: It helps to do something while waiting for a set up. After DOE report as price was ripping. I liestened to " There she goes " song non step for 30 minutes, drank water etc. till short made sense.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-11-05_1126_doe.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; November 5th, 2014 at 02:48 PM.
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  #1018 (permalink)
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No catalyst , NO move. Damn OJ. All the soft commodities needs a catalyst to have nice moves. I thought may be it's about time for OJ to move, but no go. Out flat.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-11-05_1331_oj_short.png  
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  #1019 (permalink)
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1) Holding shorts in CL into Globex session around 78.90 area.

2) Holding shorts in CC and NG.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1020 (permalink)
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What made you decide to start shorting at 78.8 -79.20?


mfbreakout View Post
DOE report can be MOST profitable trading days- if one has RULES and does not deviate from them. Most importantly KEY is to ignore jumping prices. Do not look at DOME. It will scare the hell out of you. After DOE my P&L was up and down quite a bit and then i had to hold for 50 minutes to get paid. If i am looking at P&L, the GAME is over. After DOE report i was counting as to how high CL can go. Low of 75.84 to 79.40- that's 356 ticks. Or if one takes today's globex low of 76.50, it's 290 ticks. On a macro berasih trend, i will short this all day long. Who is to say CL would stop around 79.40? No guarantees. I am just trading probabilities. If CL kept going higher, a trader either needs to get out of short or keep adding to shorts if it makes sense. I would have kept adding to shorts. Today is a good example of reversion to the mean set up. Anyone can draw channels, lines etc. on a chart and then say CL would stop at 79.40 but have tough time to clear 30 ticks. If one does not understand probabilities game, then it's tough to step up during the heat of the moment.

I did not hold entire position till 77.70 but close enough. Now, CL is in a box and one can make some serious dough with it.

NOTE: It helps to do something while waiting for a set up. After DOE report as price was ripping. I liestened to " There she goes " song non step for 30 minutes, drank water etc. till short made sense.


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