This week was really a text book week ,I will make this post short and divide it on 2 separate parts as the week can be seen as a double distribution week with a large LVN area.
May 12
We start the day with a 5 point gap , this poor structure should be targeted by smart money as the up auction fade. We are now reaching almost 5 months of poor volume on highs , this is something that the market is telling us about the up auction. Now , a strong open that took us from 81 to 88 on the first trading period. POC was established on 89 and a rotation took us up to the high of the day of 93 on the last period of trading.
Now the symmetry is completed
Target from last week 94
High (reached today) 93
MCPOC 74
P Week Low 55
As the target was reached , levels above 94 could be logical spots for beginning short positions, anyhow the close signal a weak high , so we come to the next session keeping in mind the volume traded on this day.
May 13
After Y close , we should go seeking higher prices , the open comes fast and take us to 97.25 , 2 points above our previous 95 target. Period D took us to all times high of 98.50 on the ES , weak volume could not sustain highs and as we approached 98.50 heavy responsive selling came in , I will post the 1 minute chart to you can see the huge volume on this level.
The day ended with a POC on the target we identified on the previous week , at 94.
Now a great trade was in place , how to identified it ? First of all, get the odds , then measure your risk-reward.
Trade Scenario
Long , who would buy at this levels, smart money is not coming in as the poor volume on this session showed, there was no acceptance at all on this levels. Long participants will wait for better prices.
Short
There is poor structure under us , a LVN on May 12 from 88 to 81 , along with a GAP from 80 down to 75, and above all we have a huge magnet on 74 the MCPOC just down of that poor structure , we know that 68 to 60 is a pretty well constructed zone.
Volume is also on our side, pretty low.Some players came in hard on 98 , we should monitor that and take a decision early next day.
You could set your trade with the following risk/reward scenario.
Short at 94-95 zone.
Risk 1900 -5 points
Reward 1874 +20 points
May 14
The open came on the previous day VAL , on 93 , the market spend almost all day establishing a value zone on 91 and 88 . This zone should be a target for future movements to the upside.
On the last 3 periods , the market (after 5 tests at 88.50) attacked the first weak structure from 88 down to 82.25 , market close came on 84.75.
This day confirmed that the weak structure was under attack and a 74 MCPOC will be visited.
May 15
This is an important day , as heavy volume takes place and move the market on a swift strong bias.
The market opened outside value and outside range , a swift strong open from 81 up to 71. Open gap 84-81.
It was very important to notice that the MCPOC was completely ignored and did not slowed trading , HVN almost always slow the market on its zone. Anyway we did experience a bounce from period B low 70.25 to 74.50 on C period. From there a complete break to 59 on period F.
From period F onwards , strong construction of the profile , up to this period a strong trend day was on place, but two periods (12 to 1 pm) gave responsive buying the upper hand , it is not common for a strong trend day to slow for 2 consecutive periods, the first sign was the strong answer on the low , which came on 59 up to 66.
Now rotations should have taken place around 64 and 70 should act as a resistance. The day ended up shy from a trend day and behave more like a normal variation down.
Huge value area , 69 down to 60. This area is presenting itself as a well constructed one.
Odds are next day to chop around this area, smart money should wait for a test of today´s lows.
This day is the confirmation of a good trade scenario, identified on Tuesday. Shorts placed above 88 , yielded a good 20+ points move.
May 16
Open on value , a long scenario is emerging as Y session fell short of a trend day and responsive buying came on 60 levels. Double bottom was established early on the session on period C 61.25 and 61.75 period D. This structure gave us a good setting for target 1 64 and a rotation to 69. The day build up value all day and eventually broke 70 resistance , to look for the 74 MCPOC.
Close was on high of the day , 75.50. Higher prices coming next week.
I am posting the 98.50 all time highs on a 1 minute chart, the spot where a reversal began.
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