Trading Journal May 7-9 Es
|May 19th, 2014, 08:20 PM||#1 (permalink)|
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: ES
Posts: 15 since Apr 2014
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Trading Journal May 7-9 Es
Ok so I posted on May 6 and stop short of posting for nearly two weeks , so long for the discipline side, which is fundamental , nevertheless I got all my records on pen , I will give a quick summary of the days of May 7 to may 9.
This day was one of those days one loves to be a trader , this day was what Dalton refers to as a neutral day, except for the IB down side, which did not got broken as the IB low was quite aggressive and was met with heavy responsive buying.
So on the open I was short looking for 64 to hold, we should remember that on May 6 a late down push closed and leaved a POC at 64 after spending almost all day on 71. This moved , should hold and go for the previous session low of 61.75 , I was short on the open.
Important: When trading a counter trade ( trade that goes against main trend) one must be extra careful and very quick.
Now , it is important to play the odds, I was expecting 64 and a test of 60 which came pretty early and aggressive at 10:00 AM , expanding to 54.50 , this was a symmetrical move
PDay High 75.25
Late POC PDay 65-64
Strong buying tail to 58 , for the rest of the session the construction was quite strong , establishing POC AT 64 and going for the upper POC of previous session at 70 at the close.
The close at 74 and its construction on all the session made a case for a push up for may 8.
So on Y session the market closed with an upside imbalance , Y profile suggested a target of 84.
Y High and close 74
Y POC 64
This symmetry does not come from only adding points , it has a powerful base on the natural distribution curve, obviously the great payoff of understanding it is not as easy at it may seem, and it is not difficult either , it is natural.
The open was just on Y session VAH , 72. The open had a quick test to 69 and initiative buying on this area , Dalton states that any activity on previous value areas is considered initiative as in this case buyers precipitate to it expecting or considering it to be a good spot , responsive activity would wait for it to go out of value in this case longs would have jump in on 60-59 levels.
A quick on the open to 81 , which is another fundamental level , now we should consider previous day activity , OTF selling was present, so smart money could jump in on high levels above 81 , always consider acceptance of new levels, volume is fundamental. We know construction on 64 is strong , so a seller could make 65 or 64 its target, an now that buyers made their move it is all about volume (acceptance).
84.75 level reached at F period , 8:30 period is my A period, I use 30 minutes TPO (time price opportunities). After that volume was really not facilitating trade to the upside , we could consider 84 as a target from previous day move , so odds are a little sided for sellers on this higher levels , as smart buying money will wait for 64 or lower levels.
As the day develops period I made an important move to 80, this was a fundamental sign as , after an strong open IB high was 81, if OTF selling came in on 84 , this value could be challenged which sets on the alarm for any long , there is a LVN created by B period that went from 77 to 72 , this is an area that is pure bread for sellers.
In one hour sellers pushed the POC to 77-76, the LVN is being filled , as a trader if one has a long bias , the logical spot comes at previos day POC 64 , smart money waits for a test even to 60.
Period L and M go in fast , the move begins at 75 and ends on 65 , just on previous day POC, longs jump in , in this case responsive buying and get the POC established at 70-71. We are on for a choppy open tomorrow.
After an almost neutral day on the previous day , today we got a textbook neutral day. IB broken early to the upside and late to the downside.
Anyway we should be ready for a break any day now , as OTF are playing hard and a winner could emerge.
This day was the end of the week long face off.
This kind of days ( bracketing-choppy) are best traded waiting and gathering odds with previous days relationships, the open came just on previous day close , in value and in range. The next move will be aggressive , aggressive moves come when the market is on balance.
The open was choppy enough to open on 72 and fall to 62 , just to recover on the next period to 70. And fell once again on E period , breaking IB low by one tick. This is a huge long signal in the ES a double bottom and a shy IB low break , just one tick. Nevertheless this low is also a weak long term low , as buyers did not enter at this level in a landslide , the prove is that sellers manage to touch it twice , so it is not a level that buyers consider that unfair.
Buyers established value at 68 , and coming from 62 a rotation to the upper side of 74 was on the table . 75 was touched on H period , just to fall of to POC 68 on the next 3 periods. OTF activity that created 5 points rotations , this day was quite the day traders want to trade. The close was strong and ended on the upper side of the profile.
There are big chances next day open tries higher prices as we reach 3 days of strong construction on 74 to 60 levels.
The weekly profile :
MCPOC 71-74 (Macro Composite Point of Control)
Target is set to 1894-1895.
This week ended with strong construction , establishing a strong MCPOC at 74.