After a test to 76.75 and a normal balance , the market needs to auction and build up the structure , I found it good for the open short that I had at 81, but as you can see on the chart I posted there were 4 things that did not help the short case.
1. The IB LVN was not strongly tested , we didn't see 75 or 74, we also should have forgotten the open GAP at this point, this weak structure is perfect for sellers , the IB LVN was defended , so we should wait and look for confirmation of a possible back to 81 move.
2. Volume on the rotation downwards after the first bounce, the volume was very low , showing fading interest from sellers, this was a signal that made me want to get out of my open position.
3. Volume showing support and auction taking place on the upper side of this momentarily balance.
4. The TPO profile showed that 80-81 had high odds for becoming today POC.
Market structure show odds in favour of buyers , I got my emotions to do the trades after the minutes , I have posted a chart that clearly shows volume going higher. I made 4 short trades , only one yielded a profit , and this trade was the original short I have forecast for today´s symmetry.
The three shorts before the short at 86.25 were really shorts made from a gut sense which I have not perfected as you can see , anyway I end up the day profitable and knowing that the last trade behaved as expected and following my triggers.
Anyhow I also considered that this levels (83-87) are in the area of this month LVN , buyers have set its target to 92 where a VPOC is waiting.
Trading is not about losing money or winning money, all there is to trading is understanding yourself, once you let the red dog out all comes natural. I have identify my mistakes , and as I use this journal as a written record I will not do the same mistakes twice, do not fight the market putting your own perspective ahead.
I will not post nor trade this final two days of this week , I am closing the week today and it is a profitable week.
After a final test on Tuesday , all the MCPOC area between 1880-1860 was auctioned , now this area is heavily constructed and will be a future magnet and target for short OTF participants, this area is quite important.
Now the high and low of this may accumulated area is
Now , I am aiming for a new MCPOC forming in the area between 1895-1820 , with the extremes on a possible 1932 and 1880. We have already posted that buyers would be looking after the VPOC at 1892 , which was reached on Thursday , now we have 3 VPOC , one on Thursday , Friday and now on Monday , this are not far from each other and are unfolding a future structure we can trade with , a VMPOC is being created.
Now we have poor volume on the last three sessions , and right now an open Gap at 01-97 , the auction up is young and the OTF sellers is absent , again market generated info is telling us the whole story.
I started the day with attention on some presence of responsive selling , which came just before the open. I was looking for a day with some overlapping , I however did not anticipate that an overlapping day would establish higher value , which this day did , however the first sign of some responsive selling came in today.
I was looking for a short early on I was looking for the market to unfold, my first two trades which yielded 2 and 4.5 points were made on a simulation mode , for the first trade:
Short 11.50 Simulation Mode , I was looking for a 12 with the real account , I made this mistake on the open and on the close , at the close I was 1 tick shy for a 5 point strong down move. So the short on the open followed the responsive move that came overnight , my first goal was YPOC , I did offset pretty quickly because I was looking for an entry on the real account.
After the move I took a long at 06 , playing a symmetry that fulfilled during the day. The offset was at 10.50.
Now after the down move I was looking for acceptance on YPOC and YVA , however there was a part in the auction which I have encircled , the low 05.25 was touched 3 times before it broke, but just before the brake there was fading interest in the selling side, a reversal ensued . I have to say that I was not looking for a long on this levels , I was not comfortable with the open GAP below us. Now, there is an important part of the auction that one must always look after , acceptance , the lows of today were rejected quite quickly. We did not reached Y lows and the 04.75 double buttom from Y provide support.
Now, my first trade idea was a short on Y VAH , roughly on 09.77.
Short Trade 09 11:15 Offset -2 points
I did not like how I entered the trade , there was no volume or auction finishing up and after responsive buying touched this levels there was a balance , rotations of 2 or 3 ticks , I came in early on and learn afterwards that the 11 level was my level. So after touching the HOD at 12 pm , there was the reversal I was to impatient to wait for , the trade gave me 2 or 3 ticks , not much really. I monitored the trade and I was too slow to reverse this trade because there were clear signals of trade looking up , the period between 13:20 and 13:50 was the one that made me take a reversal at 11 , I have already identified stops at HOD and a break of IB was likely , value was established on 10-11.
Long 11 13:33 Offset 12.25 1.25 points
I placed the offset 3 tick from IB , considering today's participants and stops located on 11.50, after or on this offset a trade opportunity arrived , I was slow to take it in , however it provided a valuable signal on the reversal.
Now , after the reversal , a period on 14:04 showed volume coming in to the downside , higher volume that the one that established the new highs, this came in on 12.25 to 11. I was now on the hunt for a short on this levels.
Short 10.75 14:18 Offset 09.50 14:31 1.26 points
I took this trade going along with the volume that just entered, 09.50 was a level that was defended all the session so I chose it even before I was filled.
At the end of the session there was a good opportunity on thr 15:00 to 15:30 period , Why? Because the volume that entered on the reverse was important and POC was established at 10 , however the end of the session was near so I was cheap enough to place it on 12.25. This move broke 09.50 and went to 07.25 . This break looks like an inventory adjustment , the movement was swift and fast.
First signs of responsive selling, however value was established up again.