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I wasn't expecting big things today, as there was a jobs number at 11:30am. However it turned into a pretty nice trading day.
I've been trying to take a more cautious - longer term approach to my SPI trades. As a result I've been missing fills a bit. So today I tried something a little different.
There was a really nice MP level that formed at 46.
The first time it traded there it was bid 46 and a little size traded and it quickly snapped back to bid 47s.
Now I've been missing this type of spot quite a bit so today I just bid 47s and got filled. It turned into a nice trade as it went and tested the highs.
The next time it came back down I did a similar thing. Price didn't snap back so fast and I had to sit on it for a while as you can see from the chart.
I trailed this one up and we ran into some selling at the MP level at 53-54 which is to be expected.
In the same manner that you look to enter at these levels, you can also use them as a good point to exit.
The big advantage of this type of trade is that if it can push through that level it will likely hit the highs as we saw the first time around.
There was another chance later but we were nearing the number so I stood aside. After that there wasn't anything I was looking for.
I've been monitoring some bond spreads today so that's been quite interesting post the jobs number.
Another good day of trade in the SPI - I can assure you it isn't always this rosy - it just seems we're in a decent patch at the moment.
The first thing I really wanted to highlight is the excellent example of selling on a pullback.
Price broke down after the open and pulled back into a bit of a range at 43.
There was excellent selling on the offer and it just couldn't get up. It might have ticked up to get bid at 44 but kept getting whacked back down.
If you look on the chart it's almost a straight line across which is a super indicator of selling. This would have been even clearer on a tick chart if you use those (I don't) and it was clear as day on the DOM.
The other great thing about this type of spot is the risk/reward.
I'm short at 43 with 3 tick stop.
If we reach the lows thats 4-5 ticks away and I expect to see that happen around 75% of the time.
However if we run the lows - which might happen 50% we stand to make something like 10 ticks.
As it turned out this turned into a 16 tick winner with barely a back tick down to 27. Great stuff for only risking 3 ticks.
I got a small piece of the next one followed by a stop out when I tried it again.
Keep hitting it until the end I say.
We ran into some data and RBA stuff so I stayed out for a bit.
It might be boring as hell, but I suggest you read the Reserve Bank statements and get an understanding of the type of language they like to use. It can give you some insights and is a must if you trade bonds or STIRS.
We got a bit of a pullback later but I missed it, before volume died down a bit.
Interested in your Bund, ZN thoughts/trades if you have any to post. Bund is my main market and aussie bund traders are rare. Also who are you using as a broker to get SPI, BUND ZN 6A etc in Oz? I defunded my account after the Mirus balls up so looking for someone when I'm back in the markets (i.e not studying full time)
I love the Bund as a market to trade. Just the hours can be a bit of a killer like many markets for Aussies unfortunately. I don't trade the ZN as much anymore because the timezone is just too much for me.
I'll be sure to post any trades when I get back into the Bund though. SPI has been good lately but it's not always the case.
In terms of retail brokers I think AMP is probably your best bet if you need SPI. IB also has a good range of products but comms are high. AMP are reasonably priced and don't underestimate how important that is. I'm not sure if Deep Discount still offer SPI - but they'd definitely have all Eurex. They are great with customer service while the others aren't so good. DD would be my choice for a Bund trader.
Feel free to contact me anytime and best of luck with the trading and study!
@trentcroad how do you like Australia, could you describe what life is like out there? I've always considered taking a trip there once I save up enough.
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
I don't mean to digress, but I like this beach called Ipanema that kronie posted on big mikes ecuador thread not for the sexiness but it just looks awesome (I posted the link below). Only problem is English isn't the native language like in Australia
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
The beaches here in the Tri state area from New york, New Jersey, and even Delaware have nice board walks, casinos, restaurants etc. but when it comes to the actual water it's mediocre. The water is very cold and dark dark blue. There's usually no waves and there are also many jelly fish and guidos. This is a somewhat accurate picture
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
