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I'm gonna quit my job tomorrow...one of these days
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I'm gonna quit my job tomorrow...one of these days

  #21 (permalink)
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Another good day today. Three trades, all winners. We started off kind of rangy but there was a definite upward bias. That trend line from last week I keep talking about is still there, and the market could not get below it overnight. For the first hour I didn't see any good signals. At first I saw what I thought was an up trend that broke and moved to a new high, so I was looking to go short maybe down to that trend line. But then we reached a new NEW high so I just watched and waited.

Trade one was a short off the highs. It was a gutsy move but I was looking for a correction. I liked it because of that bearish bar that closed on its low after three failed attempts to go higher. It worked, just barely, filling my scalp then pretty much reversing. Four ticks.

Trade two was an immediate reversal and a second entry long. Once prices turned around at the ema then the next bar closed on its high I figured we were going higher. As soon as my runner on trade 1 got cut I took two longs. This was a good trade that hardly went against me. I got four ticks then started looking to see how far I could take the runner. I used the previous leg up, which was about five points (1863-68). From the bottom of this newly forming leg that would have put me up to about 1870.5, so that was my target. I got out at 1870.25 but as you can see the market has moved much higher. In hindsight I could have just sat on that runner and be up about 10 points, but all you can do is go with the information you've got at the time.

After that I watched as we went to a new high then kind of stalled out. We had a break of the trend line, the one I rode up in trade 2, so I was looking for a move to a new high. I didn't want to go long unless we could get down to the ema. We had a second entry long that actually failed near the top, and I didn't take it because 1) we were too close to the high, and 2) there was too much chop and too many dojis in the area. A month ago I would have taken that trade but now I feel like I'm getting better at reading the price (and it actually did work if you used a 2-point stop, but it got warm).

So now I'm thinking maybe a short, but when prices went down to the ema, couldn't close below it, then turned around and closed up in a nice bullish bar I said now it's time to go long. This was trade 3. I got a little heat on it but not too bad, and when it couldn't even get back down to the ema I knew I would be ok. Unfortunately they did it to me again--taking out my runner to the tick then moving higher. I'd still be in this trade and probably be in for at least a couple more points profit.

Ah well, I'm done for the day. It's still early but I wonder if price is just going to hug the ema all day, maybe finish up 20 points. It's looking like that kind of day.

Six points and a tick of profit today. Good trading.

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  #22 (permalink)
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Good job today. It will take time, but once you can let that runner go you will do very well.

I like trades #1/2 because you had targets in mind before you took the trade and you stuck to them. Sometimes that is the hardest thing to do is see your trade to your target.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Ugly day today. I'm guessing all markets are low volume, low movement like the ES today which has just sucked since about 10 am. Things started off good with two winners, then I was away from the screen for an hour, and when I came back I drew some quick lines and saw what I thought was a solid up trend that had formed off the lows. A second entry long came up so I took it. Unfortunately I drew my lines wrong, not off the early bars, and I failed to see that we'd already broken that trend and moved to a new high. Now I was buying right below that high.

This was trade 3 and I got smoked, never moved in the green for even a tick. Then we moved into this range of nothingness but I failed to see it for two hours. I could see that prices were moving above and below the ema, never staying on one side, but it never occurred to me that we were in a range and I didn't see the support and resistance points. I was all over the place with my lines, first seeing downtrends then up trends. Twice I bought at the highs.

Finally toward the last trade I saw the range and when closed below it and couldn't get back into it, with the highs of each bar bouncing off the ema, I went short. Got four ticks but nothing else and now we've moved back into the range. Just a slow sucky day with little to work with over the last couple hours.

I really need to get better at seeing ranges. Something told me early on that it wasn't right, the way we were closing above and below the ema, but I didn't put it all together. Just have to keep trying.

I lost about 5 points today. Not terrible. I was able to keep my focus, see what was going on, and finish with a win.

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  #24 (permalink)
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First trade today was a loser. It was an aggressive move but I thought I had good lines drawn and several reasons for it. It was a buy as prices were coming up off the low.

I saw an overnight down trend that broke the channel around 1870.5. Then there was a move to a new low so I figured that move was over. What really made me go long here was that we'd had a failed second entry short, plus I saw (maybe I was wrong here) a second entry long forming off the high just before the close yesterday, plus I saw what was an upward trend line forming off several bars at the bottom.

But when we hit the ema it reversed and never had a chance after that. Took me out for I think 7 ticks. I really don't think I have that down channel drawn wrong. I think there really was a break, but I guess the market isn't ready to go higher yet. Probably should have waited until we got above the ema. This was an aggressive trade and I got my hands slapped for it. It does now look like we're forming a double bottom, so I'm thinking prices will be going up.

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  #25 (permalink)
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Well I was dead wrong about it going up. Took two more trades, small winners, both just playing off the ema. I think that's basically what our trend line is right now. That thing is offering some stout resistance. All you have to do is hit sell when prices touch it.


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  #26 (permalink)
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Three more trades this afternoon, two winners and a loser. 4-2 overall and about -$87. I'm not even worried about profit and loss right now, just trying to find good setups and learn from and avoid the mistakes.

There was a setup or two this morning that I missed because I was away from the screen.

One big thing I think I learned today is watch the ema. I'm really starting to think that ema price action trumps everything else. What prices do when they get there will tell you what they're going to do next.

If prices are heading toward the ema, don't do anything until it gets there then see what happens. This was the mistake in trade one.

Be aware of everything. There's so much information to manage and process. Draw your lines. Sometimes you have to go back to the morning high or low from four hours earlier to do this. You have to always be looking at the big picture as well as what's going on right in front of you. It wasn't until almost 11 that I saw that the morning high and the later, lower swing high matched up and formed a perfect channel line that the market stayed within almost all day. You can then drag this line to the bottom and it fits perfectly there too. This was why trade 4 failed, because I was buying right into that top channel and didn't even realize it. That and it was a first entry which I did realize. The second entry worked a few bars later but I'm not sure I would've taken that.

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  #27 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
when you are embarrased by the trades you took...that is exactly the chart you want to publish. You learn from mistakes not from victories.
DB

Great post, this is exactly what most people miss. And what separates those traders that develop in the caeers and those that don't.

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