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I'm gonna quit my job tomorrow...one of these days


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I'm gonna quit my job tomorrow...one of these days

  #11 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Memphis TN
 
Experience: None
Platform: ToS
Broker: TDA
Trading: None
 
Pariah Carey's Avatar
 
Posts: 875 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 150 given, 2,566 received

Today was terrible. I talked before about having had success over the last month, but I definitely need more work before going live. Bottom line I just didn't read the price action correctly, at least early on and that is where the damage was done. I actually finished strong--my last four trades were three winners and a break even that I saw as not going anywhere so I bailed before it turned. And I didn't panic. Once the bloodbath was on I just told myself it's ok, you're only practicing here, just go back to the fundamentals and focus on the next trade. Forget the losers and just focus on the next one.

So I feel pretty good about tomorrow. It's a new day. Tonight I'm going to watch Mack's video, get a good nights sleep, and try again tomorrow.

I'm not going to go over each trade because there were a lot, probably too many. 13 to be exact. Seven losers, five wins and a scratch. Wins are in green, losers in red, the scratch is black.

The chart that I have attached is how I think the trend lines should be drawn. I was able to figure out some of these only afterward, in hindsight. Looking at them now I can see the system rules at work, and what I should have done differently. If I'd had these lines in place then I think I would've been ok. For instance in the first move down which started at the high from the 8.30 open, and encompasses trades 2-6, I clearly see a down trend, albeit a choppy one. Then the channel breaks (goes up) and there's a new move down, which is exactly what Mack teaches. You don't want to go long until you get that new move down. And what do you know, once the new low is reached you get an 11-point rally.

My biggest problem is that between about 8.50 and 10, where we were just in a range, I was drawing my lines all wrong. I think I had them too steep and off the wrong swings, and a few times this caused me to sell at the bottom and buy at the top. I have trouble with range trading and I'm just going to have to work on that. I was fine once we rallied, but I got chopped to pieces in the congestion.

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  #12 (permalink)
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I think I'll log back in...

and post my bull$h1t trades from today.

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  #13 (permalink)
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Posted in...


my journal thread as to not cross the line and hijack someone else's thread. Dan

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  #14 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Memphis TN
 
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Much better day today. I feel like I'm really reading the price action good this morning. I quit trading about 11:00 USCST because I've pretty much met my goals and done all I need to do for the day. If I was trading real money I might trade some more in sim for practice or I might just stop. But this is a good way to go into the long weekend.

Six trades today, five winners and one loser. As soon as it happened, even before it happened, I could tell why the loser didn't work. I took a position right in the middle of a bunch of ema congestion. I remember Mack talking about that before and it's something I'm going to have to work on and be aware of. Additionally, right after that losing trade, I noticed an uptrend working across the lows starting with the overnight low. I went short right above that line, so it wasn't a good idea but I didn't see it until afterward.

Here are the trades:

Trade 1: Bought on a 2nd entry long. This too was actually in the middle of a bunch of ema chop, and several times it came within one tick of stopping me out. Again I'm going to have to watch out for that and look for a better entry bar. But we just had a break of an uptrend so I figured we were going to retest the high. Good trade where I scalped four ticks and my runner got a few ticks as well.

Trade 2: already discussed.

Trades 3-4: These were aggressive. Once I drew that up sloping trend line I said let's just wait for the market to come back to it. It did just that shortly after, and when the bar dipped below the line but came right back up and closed above I went long. Didn't even wait on a second or even first entry. I really like the way this line was holding price. Got four quick ticks but the runner died.

In trade 4, right after my runner got taken out, I saw the market once again going up off the line. For a few ticks it really surged forward and you could see some intense buying. I just said go, it's on, get in. It was a purely gut move based off what I was seeing. Sometimes you just gotta say to hell with it and swing away. I got a point off my scalp and about 3 1/2 points off the runner.

Trade 5: Once we broke the short-term trend and reached a new high I figured we were coming back down. Prices stalled out at the high then we got a second entry short. I took just one contract here seeing if I could just scalp a point and I got it pretty easy.

Trade 6: I drew a down trend line and price was holding it well, so I went short. I should've waited on a second entry but it worked, I just had to watch the market go against me for a point or so. Second entries are better but sometimes you just don't get them. Sometimes if you wait on a second entry you're left holding the bag. But this trade worked although that up sloping line once again proved unbreakable so I didn't get anything off the runner.

Total profit of six points and a tick, or $312 before commish.

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  #15 (permalink)
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Thanks: 150 given, 2,566 received

Slow day today but I made a modest profit. I've been watching the screen for five hours and it's just painfully slow. I've got other stuff to do and I'm up for the day so this is going to be it.

Three trades, two winners and a break even that I just lost faith in. Two points profit.

Trade one was a second entry long off the trendline that's still in effect from last week. One point profit, then the runner got taken out, then it proceeded to rally five points of course. I should have gotten back in like I did on a trade last week but I just didn't have that aggressive instinct today.

Trade two is another second entry, this one well below that trend line but I figured we were at least going back to the ema, which we did, and which it then proceeded to once again take out the runner. A point of profit.

After this nothing happened for over an hour. Market was going up but I saw no good setups. Finally had one tick lower below all the even closes at 1861.25. I saw this as a trap, thought maybe we'd catch some shorts, so I went long hoping we would spike up. Took just one contract here because I was just looking for four ticks and then be done for the day. We went up three ticks and I was waiting for those last two to fill my limit order but it never came. We bounced around and after watching for 10 minutes I got out at break even. It was just taking too long and making me nervous. As of this writing 20 minutes later it has yet to get up there, although it looks like it will eventually because the price is hugging the trendline pretty well. On a better day it may have worked faster.



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  #16 (permalink)
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And there it went. We just popped above 1863. Oh well I got to preserve my little profit.

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  #17 (permalink)
Super Moderator
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
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Pariah Carey View Post
Slow day today but I made a modest profit. I've been watching the screen for five hours and it's just painfully slow. I've got other stuff to do and I'm up for the day so this is going to be it.

Three trades, two winners and a break even that I just lost faith in. Two points profit.

Trade one was a second entry long off the trendline that's still in effect from last week. One point profit, then the runner got taken out, then it proceeded to rally five points of course. I should have gotten back in like I did on a trade last week but I just didn't have that aggressive instinct today.

Trade two is another second entry, this one well below that trend line but I figured we were at least going back to the ema, which we did, and which it then proceeded to once again take out the runner. A point of profit.

After this nothing happened for over an hour. Market was going up but I saw no good setups. Finally had one tick lower below all the even closes at 1861.25. I saw this as a trap, thought maybe we'd catch some shorts, so I went long hoping we would spike up. Took just one contract here because I was just looking for four ticks and then be done for the day. We went up three ticks and I was waiting for those last two to fill my limit order but it never came. We bounced around and after watching for 10 minutes I got out at break even. It was just taking too long and making me nervous. As of this writing 20 minutes later it has yet to get up there, although it looks like it will eventually because the price is hugging the trendline pretty well. On a better day it may have worked faster.



Do you have a predefined target when you enter your trades?

Looking at trade #1, I would have been targeting the most recent swing high @ 1862.50. Same with trade #2, I would have been looking for the same area again.

You had two really good entries that could have been well enough to not require trade #3.

Your chart looks like a trading range, and you are doing a good job of buying at the bottom of the range, but it looks like you are not allowing your trade to run to an area where it most likely will go and take profit there.

When I take a trade, I typically have a target area in mind before I place the trade. Then all I have to do is allow the trade to work to my target or to my stop.

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  #18 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Good questions TT. I do look for targets but my first order of business is to get four ticks on contract 1, scalp out, then move the runner to break even. In the first trade yes I probably would have been going to 1862.5 or 63 because that was the high from Thursday. But the market came down and got my runner then only went about two ticks lower. And in trade 2, same thing but I probably would have been going for 1864, or even once we get to 1864 run a tight trailing stop to see if I can get a little more. As I write this it's a 1863.5 so it's probably going to get there.

But when they take out your runner, then turn back around and say so long sucker, what can you do? There's probably a way to read the action to where you can get back in before it takes off, I'm just not there yet.

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  #19 (permalink)
Super Moderator
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
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tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,148 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,427 given, 12,482 received


Pariah Carey View Post
Good questions TT. I do look for targets but my first order of business is to get four ticks on contract 1, scalp out, then move the runner to break even. In the first trade yes I probably would have been going to 1862.5 or 63 because that was the high from Thursday. But the market came down and got my runner then only went about two ticks lower. And in trade 2, same thing but I probably would have been going for 1864, or even once we get to 1864 run a tight trailing stop to see if I can get a little more. As I write this it's a 1863.5 so it's probably going to get there.

But when they take out your runner, then turn back around and say so long sucker, what can you do? There's probably a way to read the action to where you can get back in before it takes off, I'm just not there yet.

I understand now, your going to B/E on the runner and that is what is being stopped out. What stop do you start with? -8 Ticks? You may be able to go to -4 ticks on second contract (This would be a complete b/e on the whole trade if you get your +4 ticks on first contract.)

My biggest gripe with Mack's PAT is the use of runners in a range. In ranges you should set hard profit taking limit orders and exit all there. In a trend you should have a runner and look to add on as price increases.

The way I trade is I exit with limits in a range and stops in a trend. My behavior for each trade is different based on the market cycle and current context.

**These are my opinions and not necessary correct or right for you.

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  #20 (permalink)
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Actual Risk


Also something I just noticed and you may want to think about is Actual Risk.

In Trade #1 you had 7 ticks of heat that you sat through with 2 contracts. So 7 ticks x 2 cars = 14 x $12.50 a tick = $175 of actual risk that you endured to make 4 ticks or $50. To me this is not a very efficient method as your risk to reward is less the 1:1.

Selling both cars @ your first exit would have netted your $100. Better, but still not 1:1.

Exited both at 1862.50 would have netted $300 and been close to 2:1 risk/reward.

**This is hindsight, but just some stuff to think about before, during, and after a trade.

Also I understand Mack's PAT and realize that this thinking is outside of his system.

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