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dctrade69 Daily Context Journal


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dctrade69 Daily Context Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: Mirus/Continuum
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With the closing of the great forum thread started by @mfbreakout I feel I still need an outlet to discuss my trading ideas and the context I use each day. I have learned so much from many different traders that have participated in that thread and hope that we can continue the collaboration on here.

My goal is to not focus on trades taken, rather to focus on the context and concepts that I use to make my trading decisions. If you find value in these ideas, please take what you can from them and use them accordingly.

Those of you that I have gotten to know already are aware that I am a full-time trader, I feed my family this way and feel like I have been blessed with the greatest job ever (most days). This did not come quickly or easily and I have a story that is similar to many others of failures, struggles and frustrations. I have wasted money in trading rooms and wasted more time chasing different trading ideas and not given them the chance to succeed.

I was fortunate to gather the help of a couple of trading mentors a few years back who patiently worked with me until I picked up on market profile trading. I spent a lot of time studying in a MP trading room and gathered the info I needed from there and have turned it into the trading style and method that I use today.

From there I added in ACD after reading Mark Fisher's book and then stumbled onto the thread on here where it all made sense and I have been using the ACD concepts now for quite some time in addition to Market Profile ideas.

I'd like to thank @Balanar and @runner along with several other traders who have shared ideas so kindly with me. I would hope that as they have time, the people that I have shared each day with in the now closed forum thread will feel free to participate in this new thread and while it will never be as good as the original, make it a positive place for ideas to be shared.

Lines definitions:

Black dotted- yesterday high and low
Blue dashed - overnight globex high and low
Cyan solid - weekly OR (Monday Asian Session)
Magenta dash dot - Opening Print (OP)
Magenta solid - ACD OR high and low
Red solid - Value Area High
Blue solid - Point of Control and Naked Point of Control
Green solid - Value Area Low
Black dash dot - Previous Swing high or low

I use previous day RTH value only. I do not use developing value. Instead I use ACD OR for current day developing context.

I use the MP Values indicator available here on futures.io (formerly BMT) forum to chart my value areas. Settings are standard TPO set for RTH trading hours of the market being traded.

This will be work in progress so please forgive the mess!

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  #3 (permalink)
 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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Awesome!! Im sure this thread will be very helpful!

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  #4 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: Mirus/Continuum
Trading: CL
 
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CL proved to be a rotational day today. Overnight price shot up quickly and retested the highs from Friday. There was also an older previous swing level I had marked a while back which helped form an area of resistance along with the Friday high.

When price could not establish above Friday high we had a nice sell off pushing price through value and retesting the POC from Thursday, where price stalled and we started some choppy rotation until the open.

Price opened just inside of value and quickly rejected value, closing the first 5m candle bearish. For my style, this setup a potential short on the close of that first bar. Price continued down and we saw a volume spike at the overnight globex low, where price stalled. This would be a good exit spot for shorts.

When price held the globex low that provides another trading opportunity for me, fading the move into a globex high or low. With no follow through past globex, I look for rejection and a move in the other direction. Price did just that and continued higher, pushing back into value and holding when VAL was retested. Price then rotated up to the POC where we had a high volume area shown on the 5m chart, which would have been a possible exit on exhaustion volume.

Price then stood around at POC with no ability to move on higher. Too much standing around with price and this setup for me a possible short scenario, looking for rotation back down to at least VAL. Price eventually did move down but after the RTH had closed so most traders would probably have just scratched this short near the close and called it a day.

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  #5 (permalink)
 Robroyrogers 
Nashville, TN
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: CL,CT
 
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Bout time!!

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  #6 (permalink)
 silver99 
Market Wizard
Mineola, TX
 
Platform: Ninja Trader
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Best of everything to you with your new endeavor @dctrade69 !

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  #7 (permalink)
 ProLeagueTrading 
Victoria British Columbia
 
Experience: Advanced
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This will no doubt be another great thread!

I've just started to get into ACD recently and MFB's thread and the posts from yourself and the many other regular contributors on the thread has really helped me a lot with my trading. Thanks again to you all, you know who you are.

I will definitely be following a long with great interest and trying to contribute where I can but I'm still an ACD newbie.

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  #8 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
Quebec
 
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@dctrade69

Congrats on your journal.

Would you mind providing a definition of the lines that you use (color and meaning). thanks.

Which version of the MP indicator are you using?

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  #9 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
@dctrade69

Congrats on your journal.

Would you mind providing a definition of the lines that you use (color and meaning). thanks.

Which version of the MP indicator are you using?

Thanks @trendisyourfriend, I have added that info back to my post 1 for everyone to find

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  #10 (permalink)
 Robroyrogers 
Nashville, TN
 
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For full disclosure, I am a relative newcomer to trading. I have been sim trading for 1 year this month. I have tried several methods prior to finding the "context" thread and adopting the ACD and Market profile methods combined to fit my needs. It has taken a few months of preparing set ups and learning but I feel I am finally grasping the concepts. Many of the traders in the room have helped me and I won't name them because I do not have their permission to do so. Suffice it to say that if you ask questions and show a willingness to learn there ARE people who are willing to help.

Today I missed several good opportunities but I was fortunate to be able to exit without any damage on my early trades. I caught a late day long off a rejection of VAL that made me some tics on my way back to the barn. I have attached my charts for context. I intentionally removed the results because as I understand DCtrader, results are not the point of this thread, setups and context are.

Thanks DC (or is it snowman now?), and if this is not what you are looking for on your thread PM me and I'll go another route.

RRR

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  #11 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: CL
 
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Overnight Price opened with a test of Friday's low. Price was unable to sustain a move lower and spent several hours bouncing around between Friday low and the VAL. A second attempt was made at making new lows which again was rejected and price then worked methodically higher until the RTH open.

The RTH session proved to be a nice rotational day with a lot of range to trade within. Price strongly respected the value areas starting at POC, working down to VAL then up to VAH and then nice moving back down to test the VAL again only to close the day back right where we started. I identified several areas throughout the day where I considered taking trades, described below

Trade idea 1 was to short at the open when price rejected the POC/Globex high area. Price rejected this area swiftly and moved directly down to the VAL. One exit idea would be to exit on the higher volume present when price reached VAL. I use a line in the sand stop method (LIS) and on this idea it would have been any close of a 5m back above the globex high for a reasonable risk exit. Initial target would have been expecting price to reach at least VAL, a very positive reward to risk possibility.

Trade idea 2 was a long trade at VAL when a double bottom was formed giving us Failed A down as well. Add the higher low on the second push down and I saw four reasons to consider getting long. LIS for this trade would have been a close back below VAL. This trade would require a little higher risk depending on your entry but with the expected first target area of POC it would still fit into my parameters of reward to risk. Secondary exit points would have been when we approached VAH and stalled on the 5m bars or when saw the second test of VAH forming a double top scenario.

Trade idea 3 was long when price pulled back to the OP. Today could have been considered an A up though VAH made it hard to feel totally confident of that idea. I still liked the long concept and it gave a nice buy setup when it swiftly rejected at OP/POC area. Price moved up nicely but then stalled out short of VAH giving plenty of time to exit if you were not comfortable with the long but still leaving you in the money. LIS was below POC and initial target idea was minimum of VAH which it could not achieve.

Trade idea 4 was short when price pushed through OP/POC, retested and then started lower. This setup gave a nice reward/risk LIS of the OP with an initial target of again the VAL. Price pushed past their nicely and gave an ultimate exit opportunity on a volume spike at the low bar of the day, suggesting exhaustion of the down move.

Trade idea 5 was long after price retraced into value again after potential volume exhaustion. LIS was VAL giving low risk entry with target of POC minimum, which we achieved at the close of RTH.

These are the standard setups I am looking for each day to consider entering trades around key levels.

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  #12 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
Quebec
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
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dctrade69 View Post
Thanks @trendisyourfriend, I have added that info back to my post 1 for everyone to find

Thanks to you. Would you mind posting your template of the 5 min. chart in the 1st post. This way i'll be able to replicate your chart and stop annoying you with basic questions.

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  #13 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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@dctrade69, thanks for allowing me to post my views on your thread. I appreciate it.

Since this is a new thread, a brief intro: I have been trading TST combines in order to get funded since the past year or so now (yeah, thats right ). My primary setups are based on what I learnt from traders that posted on @mfbreakout's thread. But, at the core, I have stuck to ACD. I am here and post for 3 reasons: 1) Documenting setups daily and logging my thoughts helps me internalize my own setups, 2) I hope to learn Market Profile/Volume Profile which is what @dctrade69 and several others here trade and 3) I have done extensive research on ACD and by sharing here I anticipate interaction with others that are interested in ACD and hope to learn more from that.

My primary setup is based on the Asian and Euro session action and long term ACD indicators. Simply put, if price has spent time above Euro/Asian OR, I am biased long and vice-versa. Then, I look at where price opens in relation to the Euro A up area. If price opens around/below Euro A up area, I look for a retrace to EOR to get long. If price opens above Euro A up area, then it may not retrace all the way back to the EOR and I will look for longs from the Euro A up area and then from the EOR area. If price opens all the way or close to the ADR, I will consider shorting the open. If price spent time both below and above the Asian/Euro ORs, I am looking for failures to fade a move. Reverse logic for the other way around. I haven't gone beyond the first trade or two but I mark any setups that follow this initial phase after market open because soon, I want to be able to take those 3rd and 4th setups.

CL Today: We opened below the Euro A down. Price retraced to the Euro A down area/WORL and gave a shorting opportunity minutes before the open. It didnt carry much. I thought we would see the US A down area/ADR low area but we reversed from the ORL all the way back to EOR and US A up area. This formed a failed A up against the EOR (my favorite setup) but we ran out of time. Price eventually did break lower but it was after the pit session close.

ES Today: Opposite of CL with 1 difference. Price opened above the Euro A up but right about where my ADR high limits start. Then we got an Anchor Bar (one of the MFB favorites). This was a short setup around 1823 when price broke below the Anchor bar. Since We had a Euro A up, target had to be at the Euro A up area which was also around the 100 day MA around 1816-1817. There were at least 2 more setups today in the ES.

More details in attached charts.

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  #14 (permalink)
 EastCoastTrader 
NoVa, USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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@LogicalTrader Delighted to see you contribute here thru "the lens of ACD" mr. "resident ACD scholar" (as dubbed by @mfbreakout)

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 ProfitableFuture 
Bakersfield, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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DC, many thanks to you for starting this thread. I look forward to collaborating with you and other traders here.

CL Monday:

I was bias short going into the open of the pit session mostly because the over night session tested the Friday highs and failed and when price dropped pretty drastically and quickly off the OP I was thinking bearishly;

#1 I got short at 10359 on a pull back of the down move that was developing. The down move that I thought would be a lot stronger if it could only break through the ONL. I scratched it when I saw the tides turning with a 6 tick loss;

#2 since I had already been bias short (and missed a nice run to the ORH in the process) of course I was looking for that rotation off the failed A-up; I let the market test the highs a couple times, watched the action and worked on a good trade location with an r/r (risk/reward) that suited me. I expected a much bigger move, it sure felt like a rotational day. I was in the trade for over 45 min and when things started to get choppy I bailed with a small +10 ticks;

#3 I began to realize that the OTF buyer that was present in the market was not going to given in to rotating lower. I looked for a good trade location and r/r and went long at 10387 which turned out to be just the right time as priced moved to 10417. But again, it was disappointing that the move lost steam so quickly, I bailed an hour later with only +12 ticks to show for it.

#4 I got short at 10:32 at 10398 looking again for some conviction, but nothing, after a little while, scratched for +5;

Guess what! My expected rotation down move finally came... right after the RTH closed.

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  #16 (permalink)
 Balanar 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NTB / Continuum
Trading: FDAX and CL
 
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Hi dctrade,

thanks for starting a continuation of the old thread.

If I feel I need to post a good setup I will post it here. Apart from that consider myself as a reader.



I hope I am allowed to publish the following message, otherwise send me PM and I will delete it.

Because I am still getting messages about OR, setups, etc.

Please work through the old thread and stay with this new one.

In the old thread you will find everything that is useful and should help you. Everything is explained.


Of course I will answer every PM but my first advice is to read the thread. Not the whole one, as MFB already said, couple of months should be enough.




@dctrade69 I wish you all the best. You are doing a great job.

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  #17 (permalink)
 ness1g 
boston ma
 
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This is great, thank you for stating this thread, I'm sure it will bring a lot of needed value and knowledge.
Looking forward to it.

Robert

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  #18 (permalink)
 runner 
Milan, Italy
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Overcharts,NinjaT, Stage5
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Hi dctrade,
great idea to start a new journal as a continuation of the old thread.

If you think my roadmaps, contexts, templates, homeworks, set-ups could be useful I will post them here when I will see something of particular interest, maybe not only on CL but aslo on different futures as ES, NQ, 6E, etc.

Great job mate!

...Patience is not the ability to wait, it's the ability to maintain the right attitude while waiting....
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  #19 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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The past 4-5 days, CL has been pretty predictable at the open. Today was different. The open was bearish for me, although all long term indicators are bullish with 103 area as the first support area. Short term view always overrides the long term view for me at the open. Trade management varies though.

Depending upon entry technique one may or may not have taken a short from the EOR today. If one did, it was a quick and brutal end. Bias immediately shifted long once price broke above EOR and swift hands could have entered long on the small retrace back to EOR. Price made a US A up after breaking over EOR and hasnt been able to break below it since.

ES opened mixed with price having spent time above and below EOR overnight. During such opens, I look for failures to fade opening moves. Rotational context is established.

Details in attached charts.

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 ProLeagueTrading 
Victoria British Columbia
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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@ LogicalTrader,



I've not been using EOR levels in my trading, but I think it's a good idea and another way to arrive at some meaningful context.

Can you tell me the Euro Session time, and the how much time you let pass to define the EOR, but in EST?

Thanks Logicaltrader for your posts

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  #21 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: Mirus/Continuum
Trading: CL
 
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Posts: 163 since Mar 2011
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CL overnight inventory had all been traded below y'day value. This left two scenarios for me to consider at the RTH open. First would we push on lower and continue the bearish move or two reject the overnight inventory and push back to value.

Today, scenario two played out. On the RTH open sellers were not there to push price lower and the buyers stepped in, driving price directly up through y'day low and directly to the globex high/value low area before taking a breather. Price from there worked on up to the POC and then eventually stalled out at 104 evens. Buyers showed no interest above 104 and from thee we rotated the rest of the day until the close.

Following my trading plan I identified four potential trades as described below

Trade 1 long when the opening 5m bar closed bullish for a push back to value. LIS would have been a close back below the OP. Initial target ideas were to first reach VAL and then POC then eventually VAH and higher. Price failed out before it got to VAH, stalling out at 104 evens. Multiple exit points came along, confirmed by high volume spikes at globex high, POC and 104 even areas.

Trade 2 long after price pulled back to globex high on an ACD A up day. I would hope for a bigger pullback but this trade had the potential to still push up to and eventually through VAH so it fit my trading parameters. LIS would have been a close back below globex high. Exit points could have been when we failed again at 104 or when price closed back below POC signaling a possible push back lower.

Trade 3 short after 30m bar closed bearish back under value and inside globex. This trade would not have worked out. the idea is against the A up day but looking for a bigger push down for another globex long trade. LIS was close above VAL where a reasonable loss could have been taken. Initial target idea was first y'day low and then OP and maybe beyond.

Trade 4 long after we failed out on trade 3 and price started pushing back into value. This would be trying to again push higher one more time before the close. LIS was again VAL, which held and you could have held onto this trade or scratched it at any time before the close with a scratch or small profit.

Overall price greatly respected the key levels I use today and offered one nice trade and then some choppy mess for the rest of the day.

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  #22 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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LoneWolfTrader View Post
@ LogicalTrader,



I've not been using EOR levels in my trading, but I think it's a good idea and another way to arrive at some meaningful context.

Can you tell me the Euro Session time, and the how much time you let pass to define the EOR, but in EST?

Thanks Logicaltrader for your posts

Euro session begins at 3:00 AM.

EOR start time: 2:30 AM
EOR end time: 3:15 AM

All eastern.

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  #23 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Thanks to you all, I have been able to validate that TradeStation can produce Market Profile information accurately. I have been comparing charts for the past few days and looks like I will soon be able to incorporate MP into my trading.

If anyone wants to know, the study (analysis technique) in TS is called a Price Distribution study. I set it up as @dctrade69 described his settings for Ninja - based on 30 minute intervals and I am getting values that are very close if not equal to what you are getting in Ninja.

This is yesterday's RTH profile that I was watching during today's action. I still dont understand quite a bit but I will keep following your charts and eventually get it.



Thanks again.

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  #24 (permalink)
 Robroyrogers 
Nashville, TN
 
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I had a ton of distractions today with my day job so I am satisfied with my results.

Like DC, I was looking for a continuation down or a push back to value today. I was actually a bit biased short but I took what the market gave me when it went up.

Trade 1 I waited until price cleared Y'day low before I entered. exited at the doji when price stalled a bit at globex hi. I am not nearly as good as DC at reading order flow yet so I still have to take my clues from given levels.

Trade 2 After price stalled a bit at globex hi it pushed thru VAL and I entered long with VAL as my line in the sand. Price stalled again at 104 area so I took my profits.

Trade 3 Same trade. Price rejected off globex hi so I entered after price closed 5m bar thru VAL. Danced around for 1 hour so I scratched the trade since we were close to the RTH close and I was unsure what to expect.

Still trying to learn order flow, until then I will take my entries and exits at known levels.

RRR

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  #25 (permalink)
 RoninRounder 
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Had 3 trades today.

#1 - After steadily moving higher pre-market price retraced down to VAL after the bell and I entered long. LIS was below value and I exited when price stalled at POC and globex high.

#2 - Testing a previous swing high near VAH, price reversed and moved back down through POC and signaled me short. Took a very conservative exit at back at VAL given the momentum.

#3- Looked and went for a short after a large retracement back to globex low when price stalled....TF had other plans though, and continued higher scratching me for a small loss.

Was happy with patience but left a lot on the table. Lots too learn and happy after one door closed this new one opened !


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 Robroyrogers 
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I'm not sure I am set up to trade NQ and CL. Too much toggling back and forth and I'm too cheap and lazy to go buy more screens. I will post my ugly NQ trades (sim mode) in the interest of full disclosure.

Trade 1 & 2 5m bar closed under VAH at open so I shorted. immediately ran back up thru VAH long so I reversed. Price then stalled at globex hi but I failed to exit. Exited back at OP for total -39 tics

Trade 3 Price passed thru OP, shorted and exited at globex low. +29

Trade 4 got short on a pass thru POC. Went my direction then turned sharply back up thru POC. I got scared and did not observe my LIS rule and exited before a 5m bar closed above my LIS for -39 tics. Bad mistake, trade was good if I'd of followed my rules.

Trade 5 Long on PB to VAL. Exited way too quickly at POC for +21 tics. Trade was good for another 150+ tics if I'd held.

I have a LOT of work to do on my exits. Livin and learnin!!

RRR

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 dctrade69 
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Today was a very interesting day in NQ. Basically we had two trends. I am sure there is a fancy name for this but for me it gave opportunity to trade on the short side following the trend down and then the markets reversed with strength and trended higher through the close.

Overnight price had traded in a tight range until a couple of hours before the RTH open. Price then broke out pre RTH and went up and tested around y'day high area. At the RTH open price went down and made an attempt to get back into value but was quickly rejected and then pushed higher testing a previous swing high area that proved to be a stopping point for the bulls at that time.

Price then reversed off of the swing high and worked back into y'day range and then back into value and traded strongly lower throughout the morning, eventually pushing through y'day low before price stalled and again reversed when the YM tested and held the 16000 level and NQ was approaching a test of 3400. That was apparently an area the bulls were willing to defend today and stepped in with force moving the markets back up near their highs at the close.

Again, all of the key levels were respected well today giving lots of trading opportunities with low risk entry options and exit points. Same trading ideas that I identified today that could have been considered for entries are listed below

Trade 1 long on rejection of value near the RTH open. Price opened and tried a push into value and was rejected with strength. this gave a nice long opportunity and price pushed up into the previous swing high area where we stalled out and rejected the move higher. My entry idea would have been to enter after the 2nd 5m bar closed just above the globex/y'day high, giving a small risk LIS of close back below y'day high. Initial target would have been a break above swing level where we had some space to move up higher and just see what the trade could give.

Trade 2 short on rejection of swing level and close back under globex/yday high. Again, this gave a small risk with LIS of a close back above globex high and a downside target of POC initially. Price moved swiftly lower and gave a potential exit cue with high volume down near VAL. Or if you were watching the higher time frames they were fully bearish so you could have held on and waited for a bullish exit signal.

Trade 3 short on retest and rejection at POC. Price stalled nicely at POC and again pushed quickly lower. LIS was close back above POC. Initial target idea was y'day low which it didn't quite reach but gave a potential exit cue with volume at the ADR low. Or again, simply ride it out lower with the higher time frames

Trade 4 short on retest of VAL. When this first retested the 30m candle was very neutral so a pause was worthwhile here. Once a 15m candle had closed bearish and price was moving lower again it offered a nice entry lower but required a little different LIS. For me it was a close back above the bodies of the previous three 15m candles, around 3441. To use VAL as LIS would have meant somewhere around 40 ticks and that's more than I will normally want to risk on a trade. Price moved down nicely again and stalled out around y'day low, where you could exit or again try to hold on with the bigger time frames.

Trade 5 short on standing around at y'day low without a push higher. Just looking to see if price could continue the downtrend. Price moved down nicely until the YM tested 16000 where price stalled and then reversed. LIS was a close back above y'day low.

Trade 6 long on reversal off of 16000 YM/3400 area of NQ holding and pushing price back above y'day low. LIS was a close below y'day low. A little higher risk than I like but still worthwhile as the first target would have been back into value and test at POC. Price continued up nicely and could easily have been held until the close of the RTH session

Trade 7 long if you hadn't gotten on earlier when price pushed into value and retested/held VAL. Low risk entry opportunity with LIS close below VAL. With the hold of value the expectation for first target was VAH or higher.

Lots of standard setups available today and more range than I ever expected to trade within.

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  #28 (permalink)
 runner 
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On a big picture (not for intraday trading) I see a developing AB=CD on 1440 min chat

and Balance area support using Market&Volume Profile

...Patience is not the ability to wait, it's the ability to maintain the right attitude while waiting....
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  #29 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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...although all long term indicators are bullish...

Wanted to explain this view earlier but didnt have time. The attached chart explains why long term ACD is bullish. This is one of the long term ACD views I have in my toolbox - all thanks to @mfbreakout. I picked this all up from him but I cannot keep things in my head like he does so I had to program it.

The combination of Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly pivots and EIA ranges factors into my long term bias. Mark Fisher mentioned the importance of price breaking above the Yearly pivot in an interview on CNBC in Jan (I think) and his view since had turned bullish on CL. Hopefully, the attached chart explains that view.

This does not mean there are no shorts. Markets are fractal in nature and trading opportunities (long or short) are determined within the time frame of a particular view. One could have a short term bearish view within a long term bullish context. Nothing wrong with that.

In ACD, there are continuation and fade entry patterns, just like we have intra day. If price spends a certain amount of time above a level, ACD calls for a long and vice-versa for shorts. If price barely touches a level and retreats quickly, ACD terms that as a failure and calls for a fade. These entry patterns exist in the longer term too. Our natural tendency, as retail traders, is to fade moves and this morning, especially with price at the ADR limits, it looks very tempting. I am approaching this very carefully and will be careful shorting this, if at all I do. I am trying to put myself into the shoes of the traders that work for Fisher. I think we will know soon. 105.10-105.30 is key from my ACD point of view today. I want to first see what happens - does price get here and how does it behave if and when it gets here.

EDIT: Typo in chart. Feb 13 should have said Feb 14. Those vertical lines are the 2nd trading day of a month when the monthly pivot is known and traders take a position.


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  #30 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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Off to a great start i see! I have a quick question about dctrades value levels.I was looking at your nq chart, and you reference the poc/val/vah levels.Are these the previous days tpo close levels?And if so, do youy use the developing tpo levels also?
Thanks!

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  #31 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Our natural tendency, as retail traders, is to fade moves and this morning, especially with price at the ADR limits, it looks very tempting.

Wish I was more tempted . This was a mistake on my part. There should be no predictions or strong biases that dont let you trade what you see. Violated my own setup today due to this. Unfortunately, I got stuck on a level and failed to execute but thats not as important.

From before the open, the setups were screaming short. Based on Euro context, price had made it all the way to the ADR and on such days, a continuation of the move is rare. This is similar to the setup in ES a couple of days ago when we opened at the ADR high. So, pre-open, the ADR high was shortable. Then we had a failure to take out the ORH. After the report, we had a 5K anchor bar and from what I have learnt from MFB, the mid point of such bars are shortable and this pattern repeats most of the times on report days. Further, we had pullbacks to the WORH and the US A down area that were shortable. As I write this, we are approaching a critical level that will change the long term analysis I posted earlier today. If 103 fails to hold, 102.30 and 101.50 areas are next in the long term.


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 EastCoastTrader 
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Off to a great start i see! I have a quick question about dctrades value levels.I was looking at your nq chart, and you reference the poc/val/vah levels.Are these the previous days tpo close levels?And if so, do youy use the developing tpo levels also?
Thanks!

Since I use similar levels, taking the liberty to answer on his behalf:

Are these the previous days tpo close levels? Yes

do youy use the developing tpo levels also? No

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  #33 (permalink)
 babba 
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I'm going to post this now because I have to leave early.
Basically these are areas I considered taking trades, in the ovals and area where exits were considered in the rectangle.

1. Short on overall bearish diverge, wait for close below the open to short with a stop at the open. This entry would be a stop out.

2. Short after the report on pullback to the WORH which also happens to be the prior VAH from 3/4. Watched the 15 minute again to manage the trade. On the 15 minute the ADX was climbing and the slow line on the oscillator was showing a steep bearish trend. Exit either at Mon. VAL or wait for the diverge as Gerald Appell would say in his book.


Since this is an A down day I would be looking for a possible pullback to short.

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 dctrade69 
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Oil Report Wednesday, never for the faint of heart! Overnight CL had broken out of value and moved strongly higher, moving up until ultimately rejecting at the 105.00 area. From there price chopped around lower until the RTH open.

On oil report days I am really only looking for one trade during RTH prior to the report and that needs to be close to the open. After that I try to wait for the report and then get back into the action.

The report formed a negative push lower and price continued that move lower the rest of the morning until eventually it stalled out at S1 with good exhaustive volume, signaling that the move for the day might be over. Price then worked higher back up into y'day value for the close very near y'day POC.

There were four areas I considered taking trades, identified below:

Trade 1 long after the open when price could not move lower with conviction. This often leads to a push further away from value. Price managed to push back above the opening print but never found any buyers so if you participated in this trade it would have most likely been at best a very small profit or a loss if you held on for long. LIS for my use on a setup like this is a close back below the OP. Initial upside target was to get back up and test the 105 area and see if price could move on higher with strength.

Trade 2 short after the news release. Price had been standing around after the report and after pushing back up to the WORH, CL rejected and pushed strongly lower, giving us a confirmed A down day. LIS was a close above WORH and initial target idea was a move into value reaching POC at minimum. High volume exit points were at POC and globex low or you could hold on and use Higher time frames to manage the trade lower.

Trade 3 short after price bounced up from VAL and held below POC rejecting POC and pushing lower. LIS was close above POC with initial target of y'day low. Price never made it down that far but a nice high volume exit signal was given right at the daily S1 level.

Trade 4 long as higher time frames started reversing and getting bullish. At 12 my time the 30m closed back above the previous bearish bar and giving a reasonable long opportunity with LIS being a close back below the bullish candle body. Initial target was a move back into value and POC minimum, which it reached and stalled out until the close.

Solid well structured day with nice respect of the key areas I use. Confirmed a down, strong use of y'day value, especially POC.

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  #35 (permalink)
 Robroyrogers 
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Today I learned several hard lessons. 1) Don't breakaway from your rules. 2) Be very careful on Wednesdays.

All sim trades (which I treat very seriously BTW, I will not go live until I can prove myself in Sim)

Trade 1 My intent was to take a short off the rejection of Globex Hi. My DOM was not set up properly so I had to take the time to reset my stop/limit in my DOM. By the time I got set up the trade had run quite a ways and I entered very late. Price turned right around and hit my 40 tic hard stop. Had I entered correctly it would have been a winner. I have my stop/limit locked in correctly now thanks to Silver99. Execution error for -40 tics

Trade 2 this one baffled me a bit. I got short at 3492.25 on a rejection of globex low. Price ran straight down to VAH with some force. I waited for it to clear VAH and it turned against me. I'm not quite sure what I could have done differently since I was watching the 1m for a volume spike at VAH and never saw it. I guess I was daydreaming as MFB would say. -36 tics

My rules say to quit after 2 losers and I ignored them and went into chase mode after this point. That was my worst mistake of the day

Trade 3 Price moved upward with force on the 9:20 5m bar. once the 5m cleared Y'day hi I went long looking for ORH. Price immediately turned down and I exited at ORL for -33 tics

Trade 4 Back to the woodshed! I went long at 11:10 when price had traveled all the way up from VAH to globex hi. I tried to get on board at the end of the line. I held this trade waaay to long daydreaming and eventually got out for -35 tics.

I realize nobody on this thread wants to see my crappy trades today but I need to post it hoping the humiliation will teach me a lesson. Any comments, chastisements, encouragement, teasing, etc.... are welcome.

RRR

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 dctrade69 
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After the big moves of yesterday, today proved to be a more challenging market to trade. Very rotational with a battle between y'days value and a previous NPOC as well as fighting over the 3500 level.

Overnight price had been all above value so at the open as always I was playing two ideas, push back to value or push further away from value. Price could not establish above the npoc area at the open so it was back to value today. Price was pretty choppy on the way down.

Once price reached value it was strongly rejected and pushed back up to retest the area of 3500/yday high before retesting to see if we could get back into y'day value. Price was once again unable to hold within value and from there price moved higher, making a new HOD. Price rotated back down and again checked the 3500 area before again moving up to make new highs just before the NYSE close.

I don't have time tonight to discuss all of the potential trade opportunities from today but there were many, first on the short side until value held and then on the long side on the way back up. I have placed some arrows on the charts where I saw areas worthy of consideration for trades.

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 dctrade69 
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Here are the areas I am focusing on as we move into the RTH session. Currently trading inside y'day value as we approach the news event in a few minutes. We have been within the same range for the last several days (between 104.50 and 103.00) and really would be nice to see a breakout to one side or the other.

NQ is currently testing right at VAH. RTH open will be looking for hold within value or a breakout of value to move higher

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 babba 
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Pre holiday tape today with little volume. The first entry points I observed today were based on a bearish diverge and bearish daily assessment. Got that wrong. The long entry points were seen as A up continuations. At 12:15 est price clearly broke down past the 20 ema on a bearish diverge but it moved too fast for me to consider a short. Mostly what I saw were scalps. After the last setup I called it a day as far as looking for entries.

1 and 2 short on bearish diverge both are stopped outs. First short was too soon with the 20 ema not even broken. Second short there were a couple of 5 minute closes below the 20 ema and the open.

3 long on break of OR, the ADX on the 15 min. was low and the slow line was mildly bullish so exit at the VAH when price stalled with a high volume 1 min. bar

4 long A up continuation, price not was closing below VAH for several bars , exit with bearish diverge.

5 long A up continuation hoping to see it hit yesterday's high exit when price failed to move higher after hi volume 1 minute bar and bearish diverge and volume weakening.

6 short price broke back down through VAH, slow line crossing zero, exit at ORH

7 short price failed to reach VAH, slow line still bearish, exit when price failed break past open on retest , also bullish diverge showing up.

Have a great holiday and weekend everyone.

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  #39 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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It's good to see someone started a new Journal. GREAT & CONGRATULATION- for stepping upto the plate.

I like to tease my friend "Logical trader" - when i read something like following

" From before the open, the setups were screaming short". I always feel or felt like this when i missed or wanted a trade to work really, really BAD. However, shorts were there as ACD mastero pointed out.



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  #40 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
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CL overnight had worked within value and was unable to work below the y'day POC. Once POC supported price, the bigger picture was long with a pullback retest during RTH of the RTH Opening Print.

Several trading opportunities presented themselves as described below

Trade 1 long on Failed A down. Price rotated around OP for the first hour and with the close of the first hour we had all time frames closing above OP with bullish sentiment. Nice low risk entry opportunity with LIS of close back below OP. Exit cues were given with high volume spikes at VAH/WORH and later at R1 if you had held through the stall at VAH. Initial target on this trade was to work to and above value for ultimate target at 105.

Trade 2 long on A up day and price holding at VAH unable to get back into value. Price had stalled and was standing around this area before pushing on up to R1 where high volume appeared offering the chance to safely exit as price stayed around R1 for a good period of time. Initial target was to get back up to 105 area.

Trade 3 short on rejection at R1 for a counter trend push back towards value. LIS was close back above R1 with exit cues given with high volume at VAH retesting and again at the opening Print area. Initial target was to get back into value and then to POC or lower.

Trade 4 long pullback long on A up day with hold at the opening print. LIS was OP/WORL. Initial target was VAH and higher. Exit cues were given either at VAH or simply hold til RTH Close.

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  #41 (permalink)
 Balanar 
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Robroyrogers View Post
Today I learned several hard lessons. 1) Don't breakaway from your rules. 2) Be very careful on Wednesdays.

All sim trades (which I treat very seriously BTW, I will not go live until I can prove myself in Sim)

Trade 1 My intent was to take a short off the rejection of Globex Hi. My DOM was not set up properly so I had to take the time to reset my stop/limit in my DOM. By the time I got set up the trade had run quite a ways and I entered very late. Price turned right around and hit my 40 tic hard stop. Had I entered correctly it would have been a winner. I have my stop/limit locked in correctly now thanks to Silver99. Execution error for -40 tics

Trade 2 this one baffled me a bit. I got short at 3492.25 on a rejection of globex low. Price ran straight down to VAH with some force. I waited for it to clear VAH and it turned against me. I'm not quite sure what I could have done differently since I was watching the 1m for a volume spike at VAH and never saw it. I guess I was daydreaming as MFB would say. -36 tics

My rules say to quit after 2 losers and I ignored them and went into chase mode after this point. That was my worst mistake of the day

Trade 3 Price moved upward with force on the 9:20 5m bar. once the 5m cleared Y'day hi I went long looking for ORH. Price immediately turned down and I exited at ORL for -33 tics

Trade 4 Back to the woodshed! I went long at 11:10 when price had traveled all the way up from VAH to globex hi. I tried to get on board at the end of the line. I held this trade waaay to long daydreaming and eventually got out for -35 tics.

I realize nobody on this thread wants to see my crappy trades today but I need to post it hoping the humiliation will teach me a lesson. Any comments, chastisements, encouragement, teasing, etc.... are welcome.

RRR

Hi RRR,

it is good to see that you are trading sim.

Two "mistakes" that I instantly see in your chart. Actually I do not like talking of mistakes because there is no right or wrong so use them as advices.

First, I see that you have anabettervolume in your chart but you do not USE it.

Second, you are buying highs and selling lows.

Just think about it...

Have a great weekend.

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 bobarian 
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1 trade worth mentioning.Opened on ym intrarange/intra value just above poc/close from fri.Ym failed at hod(fri), got back below value.% min candle close below vah,short down towards poc

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 ProfitableFuture 
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Just a little context on me first...

ACD and MP strike me as achievable and realistic methods for trading futures. I have devoured (and continue to) the available books and materials on the subjects along with the posts of the veteran members on these two threads (this and Trading Futures with Context). I have put these concepts into practice with CL both in SIM and live. However, I continue to struggle to apply the concepts successfully.

The theme of this thread and Trading Futures with Context I know, is the display and explanation of "successful" setups, traders showing what is getting them into a trade initially and then how it plays out for them. My posts here will also be about what gets me into a trade and how it plays out for me, but no guarantees about the "successful" part. My posts here will be my honest application of the MP-ACD-type setups, good, bad or otherwise.

I gain a ton of great information from the posts of the veterans (thank you). But I also learn a lot from the struggles and growth of the rookies. I appreciate the opportunity to post and contribute on DC's thread (Thank you DC).


Today in CL:

The overnight (ON) traded within yVA (yesterday's Value Area). During the Euro session, the yVAL was tested twice and failed to breakdown through it. Premarket rallied a little (probably short covering from ON session) and the OP came in at 103.28 just a little lower than the CP from Friday at 10338. With the ON and OP within yVA, I am thinking rotational day with a slight up bias based on those two failed attempts to break below the yVAL during euro.

Other notes are in the charts...

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 dctrade69 
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Monday was a slow day with Europe in Bank Holiday mode today. I bailed out mid morning with only a few trade attempts and will look for better action tomorrow.

CL opened Sunday night and immediately started a sell off back into value, settling in between VAL and POC most of the overnight session. Two attempts were made to get lower and find sellers below value but they were rejected both times. The second rejection started the move higher for the day, placing us very near POC at the RTH open.

Price bounced around for a bit trying to find some direction away from POC and finally settled on higher about 30M into the RTH session. I considered this to be a long opportunity and price worked up from there until it stalled out at the overnight high and was unable to retest that area the rest of the session.

At that point we had confirmed A Up so I was looking for pullback long opportunities back down within the OR area. Two such opportunities presented with the first push back up stalling out at VAH and the second pushing up until the close of the RTH session.

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 ProfitableFuture 
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CL Tuesday

Overnight drifted lower away from VA and down thru yVAL. At the end of the euro session price broke even lower and traded thru the VAL of the last 6 sessions and hovering at the POC of the 4/10 session into premarket. With all that overnight selling activity, I am thinking there will be a lot of range today. Watching the open to see if there will be a short covering / ON inventory adjustment to the upside before moving lower, I am expecting yes. Looking for long opportunities if the open shows some strength and then short opportunities if/when the short covering peters out.

The buying tail and up movement of the first 5min bar indicate to me that we are going higher before we go lower. Take a long position after the close of the 1st 5min bar is above the OP. LIS is at the bottom of the OR and the low of the opening 5min bar.

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 dctrade69 
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Today on CL we had price moving lower strongly pre RTH. Price had pushed below value overnight and retested prior to the strong push lower. At the RTH open price stalled around for a bit before pushing on lower and giving continuation of the trend day lower. Price continued lower until the euro close where price simply rotated around from that point on until the close.

I identified two trading possibilities based on my trading plan, listed below:

Trade 1 Long at the close of the first 5m RTH bar looking for a push back towards value. Though we were showing the high likelihood of a trend day lower I saw the possibility of a push higher before a pullback short would have sent us lower. This trade did not work out and would have resulted in a stop out. LIS was the OP and initial target was a move back to a minimum of y'day low if the trade would have worked out.

Trade 2 short when trade 1 failed. If you don't push to value then great chance you will push away from value, as happened here. Price continued lower with a big volume spike as it went through globex overnight low and again at the 102 even level and finally into a previous npoc I had marked from a couple of weeks ago. Any of those would have been good exit or scale out points. LIS was OP again.

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 dctrade69 
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NQ was strong overnight and that continued into the RTH with a nice push higher today. Overnight price stayed above value with only one attempt down into value that was rejected setting us up for a move higher. Price worked above y'day high overnight and retested but that held and took us higher into the open.

RTH opened with a little indecision right around the overnight highs. Price tried one time to push back towards value but stalled out before it ever made it to y'day high and from there trend day higher.

I only identified one trade as we never had any pullbacks until late in the session, too late for any more trades for me.

Trade 1 Long after price failed to gain strength lower and closed back above OP and globex high. LIS was OP and a nice low risk opportunity. Price continued higher throughout the session and could easily have been held until around lunch when price action showed stalling and a possible move back lower.

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 dctrade69 
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Yesterday CL made a big move and that was followed today by a tight range day with a lot of chop. Throw in the oil report and it made for a challenging day. Overnight price had been below value but working back up into a testing of value prior to the RTH open.

On the RTH open, price held above y'day low and moved up into value and from there worked up until it failed out at the 102 even area, forming a range that would not be held all session.

I identified four trades today per my plan as described below

Trade 1 long as price moved back into value, targeting minimum of POC and looking for move up to the top of value if the overnight high could break. LIS was the VAL with exit cues given at POC (high volume bar) and at overnight high when price couldn't stay above that 102 even level.

Trade 2 short after the news release looking for a breakout lower. LIS was y'day low. This trade did not work out and price moved back above the exit area pretty quickly without much positive movement.

Trade 3 short on rejection of 102 evens and POC. LIS was the POC looking for price to move back out of value and lower. high volume exit cue given at the VAL or simply when price couldn't get traction outside of value area.

Trade 4 short on third rejection of POC with a lower high this time. LIS again POC. Exit cue high volume given at y'day low or simply hold until close.

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 babba 
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For me, today was mainly about looking at key levels (VAL, POC, Globex high, open) and taking what I could get.
These were the main points of interest for me.

1. long - break of VAL, bullish diverge, really wanted to see it go to the VAH but volume dried up on the one minute at the globex high

2. short - waited for report, bearish diverge with price breaking congestion zone, thought it would reject the open on the retrace but close above the open was enough to exit.

3. long - failed A down, moving above open breaking VAL, exit globex high

4. short - bearish diverge, price closing below POC in 2 previous 5 min. bars exit when price stalled at VAL

5. long - price coming off of VAL, exit globex high

6. short - bearish diverge, break below POC, stopped just above POC

7. short - POC reject , exit at open on high volume 1 min. bar., someone could have held on with the slow line on the 310 steeply bearish or reenter short on the reject of the VAL and exited on the high volume 1 minute bar near the ORL

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 bobarian 
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cl so far for thursday

cl opens in range on top of val and springs above yest hod..Retrace, then close above hod.....1)long here target new highs...Failed aup,cover below line.
2)Below yest hod short..failed aup...cl finds support at poc....scratch trade.

3)possible short candle close below yest hod.
4)possible long green candle close above poc again

I believe these mp levels are correct now

all trades sim until otherwise noted

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 silver99 
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Tight range choppy day didn't make for good trading results today for me. -14, 0, -7 trade results tell the story. Notes outlining trade entry rationale and stops used are on the chart.

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 silver99 
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Big movement at the open made for a nice trade early in the session. I didn't exit it properly or take the reshort entries as I should have. 125, 0, 4, 0 rounded out the NQ session for me. Notes outlining my entry reasons, stop placements and general thoughts are on the chart.

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 dctrade69 
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CL was a mess today, very choppy and limited trading opportunities for my trading style.

We opened the session within value. Prior to RTH we had pushed under value but it was rejected and on the open price shot higher. I was unable to identify a place to get on that move higher as we were pushing into key levels over and over and I wasn't comfortable so I sat aside. After the move up we simply chopped around between the high of day and the POC, neither willing to give up and let price move any further. Trade ideas listed below

Trade 1 short on Failed A up looking for push back into value. Price moved back down and stalled with volume at the POC giving an exit cue for the short trade. LIS would have been a close back above y'day high.

Trade 2 long on support at POC looking for price to continue the up move and make new highs. LIS was a close below POC. While I was scared out of this trade and took a loss on my account, the trade held the stop area just fine on the deep pullback and eventually worked out but I doubt many traders would have had the courage to stick this trade out so I consider it a failed trade.

After that I wasn't going to look for any more trades unless we got out of the trading range with some conviction, which we never did so my day was done.

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 dctrade69 
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NQ gave a nice trading day with lots of movement and solid respect of the levels i watch each day. Overnight price was much higher on some news from AAPL and overall bullish sentiment.

As always on the open when we are outside of value I look for a push away from value and if that doesn't happen then the expectation is a push back towards value, which happened today with gusto. Price worked down quickly to value stalling and bouncing at POC then pushing down a second time to test through value and stalled at y'day low, pushing higher from there. Price then worked back up but could never get back into the overnight range, stalling at the overnight low. Trade ideas listed below

Trade 1 short on push back towards value. Price moved swiftly and I felt a 5m close below y'day high was necessary to make this trade stick. LIS was y'day high. This move down was accompanied with high volume all the way down so exit cues were a little hard to identify. Exit ideas were either at VAH or POC and price stalled out for a pullback right off of POC, a great area to take profits.

Trade 2 short on pullback and second push into value. LIS was close above VAH. Price pushed again with strength until it failed to find sellers below y'day low and price stalled out. An interesting side note, the 30m and higher time frames never closed a candle body within value, a cue that we were headed back higher for me.

Trade 3 long on bullish 60m candle supported by 30m bullish candles and a 5m higher low/higher high pattern above value. LIS for me was any close below the previous 30m bullish candle body. Price moved up nicely to the overnight low where price stalled and hung around forever giving lots of time to exit this trade idea with a nice profit.

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 Robroyrogers 
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This was a tough week in the CL. I have not been posting here because I have posted on another thread.
Today I took three trades and I am likely done for the day.

Trade 1 Short 101.97 on break of Globex low. I realized I had entered right at a big round # (101) so I scratched to wait for a better confirmation of short. 0 tics

Trade 2 Reentry short at 101.93. Exited on 1m volume spike at 101.62. +31 tics

Trade 3 Entered long of 15m bar closing above the previous bullish bar. LIS 100.82. Exited on 5m close above LIS. -13

My prayers for this weekend is for a LOT better action in the CL next week and much patience next Wednesday.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Thanks to our host for this great forum and his willingness to share his thoughts on MP and ACD trading.

RRR

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 silver99 
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Another fun day in the CL. One bone headed, one good, one neutral. Overall a very ugly week in the CL for me.

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 silver99 
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The short at the open really ate me up emotionally today. My take away is to consider much more closely the risk / reward ratio and pass if I have to have a stop that is closing in on 20 ticks.

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 mfbreakout 
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silver99 View Post
The short at the open really ate me up emotionally today. My take away is to consider much more closely the risk / reward ratio and pass if I have to have a stop that is closing in on 20 ticks.


Newt- my friend. Just remeber we do not count . Try not to ever trade against market internals. I do not care if it's a 30

minutes bullish candle. Something which entire WORLD can see has limited value. Yes, on rotational day but not on a day like

today.

NOTE: This may not be help but 1 year of testing has convinced me not to trade NQ with 20-30 ticks stop loss. I trade differently so it may not apply to you. However, tight stop loss is O.K till method, execution get set in

24K GOLD. That's the limitation of trading Order flow. Order Flow does not come in and out per our STOP LOSS.

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 dctrade69 
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CL spent the overnight session above y'day value area. At the open price could not make a push back towards value, instead pushing strongly away from value and testing the 102 area. Price could not build conviction above 102 and spent the rest of the RTH session working back down and eventually touching y'day VAH to the tick and then working back up to close near the RTH Opening Print.

This gave us good ranges to trade within and easily identifiable areas to enter with limited risk on each entry.

Trade 1 long after the first 5m bar could not push towards value. Price worked up directly with no pullbacks to the high of the day, where we stalled giving many opportunities to exit with a nice profit on this trade.

Trade 2 short after price stalled and could not hold the 102s. OTF's started getting bearish and the price moved back under 102 giving a low risk short opportunity to try and move back to value or at least give a move lower to then get a pullback long trade. Price moved nicely down to the Opening Print where we had a high volume 1m spike suggesting a good exit point with a nice profit.

Trade 3 short on a pullback and push back below the OP, continuing the move back to value. 15m candle closed bearish under OP to support this idea as well. There was no big volume spike to suggest an exit but when price stalled out directly at y'day VAH and started back up you could exit anywhere along the way with a decent profit.

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 dctrade69 
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NQ gave us a choppy rotational day today testing in and out of yesterday's value area. Early price could not hold outside of value and only after rejecting a move below the IB low could price then gain the buying power needed to get up and out of value for the session.

Today for my trading, I was focusing heavily on limiting my risk by entering as close as I could to the key levels I trade around. Several nice setups presented themselves today as listed here.

Trade 1 short when price could not stay above yDay VAH. Price moved down swiftly but was immediately rejected at the overnight low. For my account I had to scratch this as price rocketed back up to my entry level, so I considered this a failed trade

Trade 2 short after the news when price worked again stalled within value. I considered this a short opportunity as price moved below the OP, continuing the down move of the previous two 5m bars. Price moved down and eventually got below the overnight low but was quickly rejected when the IB low held and price reversed moving higher.

Trade 3 long after the IB low reversal. My trading plan had me waiting until we cleared the overnight low to give a good low risk entry and show some bullish strength. Price moved up through the OP but stalled out at y'day VAH for a long time giving lots of exit opportunities.

Trade 4 long after price broke above y'day VAH and retested. To get correct risk, you had to wait for price to come back near the VAH otherwise it would have required a lot of risk that I wasn't interested in taking. Price then moved on up giving new HOD and time to exit when the bars started getting bearish again.

Price just bounced around after that showing little conviction

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 bobarian 
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Hi everyone….im away this week, but ive been meanong to ask what LIS stands for?sorry for the newbie question!

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 Sk8ter 
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Hi everyone….im away this week, but ive been meanong to ask what LIS stands for?sorry for the newbie question!

@bobarian, it stands for "line in the sand". Above line in the sand, bullish and below line in the sand bearish

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 mfbreakout 
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I am hoping traders have not forgotton as to how to trade API news. One of the core inputs for CL video game.

Up at NY open , down to Globex low after hitting 102.19 area ,bounce to 101.38 area . API news comes out and

BOOM. I was thinking of going long- one more time wrong on the idea and right on execution.

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  #64 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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bobarian View Post
Hi everyone….im away this week, but ive been meanong to ask what LIS stands for?sorry for the newbie question!


LIS is my stop method. It does indeed stand for Line In Sand. Rather than placing my trades with hard 15-20 tick stops I strive for entries that put me into a position with risk of 15-20 ticks in relation to my LIS. Oh, and I ALWAYS have a hard stop in place, just further away so I can choose when to exit rather than having the market take me out on its own.

If price pushes through the LIS and then closes back on the positive side of my LIS I will hold on to the trade or scratch it at a smaller loss if I feel like I am wrong on my trade idea. If it closes on the wrong side of my LIS I simply exit the trade with the loss.

It is another way of saying if price continues to hold the key level I am using for my trade setup I will hold on until proven wrong by price being breached on the wrong side of the level. It is a method that works quite well for my use but certainly needs much practice too be implemented.

Thanks for participating in this thread, I really appreciate it!

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 ness1g 
boston ma
 
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Hi,
What are the new terms IB and OTF?

Thanks

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  #66 (permalink)
 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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ness1g View Post
Hi,
What are the new terms IB and OTF?

Thanks

IB is short for Initial Balance. Market Profile term for the first sixty minutes on the index futures markets.

OTF is short for Other Time Frames or you often here me say higher time frames.

Hope this helps!

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 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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FOMC day, never much fun.

Overnight we had traded within value, common for the FOMC days. When RTH opened price tried to move below value but was rejected, leading to a move higher the rest of the day, though via the slow grind.

An interesting observation in that the 30m chart could not close a candle body below value, a good key to the move higher. I considered four trading opportunities based on my trading plan, listed below

Trade 1 long on the close of the first 5m candle as we held within value. LIS VAL. Price took a bit to get moving and then moved up nicely but couldn't make it up to overnight high before reversing. This trade offered minimal reward and could easily have been a scratch or small loss if taken

Trade 2 short as price reversed through OP and outside value. LIS VAL. Price couldn't get any traction lower stalling about around the 3540 repeatedly. Again this trade offered minimal profit opportunity and could have been scratched if you saw that sellers were running out of steam or a reasonable loss as price pushed back up into value.

Trade 3 long was the best trading opportunity of the day. 15m chart candle closed bullish just above the OP back inside value after the attempt lower was rejected. LIS OP. Nice swift move higher stalling out at the POC level with lots of time to decide whether to hold or exit with a nice profit.

Trade 4 short as price rejected a move outside of value higher after the news release. Price moved back down nicely but stalled out at the overnight high level and then started a slow grind back higher. LIS VAH. Another limited profit opportunity but plenty of time to scratch the trade or take a small profit.

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 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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CL today featured the oil report and then we had FOMC. I was cautious as we had moved down significantly overnight, well below y'day value area. Price continued moving down after the RTH open and eventually stalled out at a previous swing level and could get no lower after the news report, using the 5m news candle as support and eventually moving price back up.

I saw a couple of trading opportunities today.

Trade 1 short after price moved below the overnight low levels and a previous npoc I had marked. LIS overnight low level. Price worked its way lower and eventually stalled out near the previous swing level prior to the news release.

Trade 2 short after the news release. LIS NPOC level, which was near the top of the news candle. Price stood around quite awhile before moving on down to again test the swing level, where it stalled out.

Neither of these trades were home runs but they were good for a decent profit.

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 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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NQ traded overnight above y'day value all night with yVAH defending any attempts to push down into value. On the RTH open price attempted one push into value that was quickly rejected and after one more retest down price worked solidly up to try the 3600 level. That area was rejected and we spent the rest of the session grinding slowly lower back to the OP. Three trading opportunities according to my trading plan

Trade 1 long on rejection of a push back into y'day value. Price retraced quickly and closed back above the OP giving a low risk long. Price worked up to the overnight high where it stalled and gave a lot of time to take a small profit or scratch the trade if needed.

Trade 2 long same idea as trade 1, rejection of y'day value area. This time it was after the news release and we got some legs on this push up, working to the 3600 level where it stalled out wtih a volume spike signaling a good chance to exit with a nice profit.

Trade 3 short on rejection of the 3600 level. Lower highs signaled a good possibility of this trade working. Price slowly worked down back to the overnight high where we had a volume spike exit opp or you could have held to the OP as well if you were scaling out.

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 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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Overnight CL started at the top of y'day VAH and worked bearish until the RTH open. Price rejected the move lower and pushed back towards value. Price moved up and rejected at yday Value and then pushed on higher to again retest the yVAH. From there price rotated lower finishing the session in the middle of the range.

Normally I would suggest a trade long opportunity at the close of the opening 5m bar but price had moved so far it would have been a high risk entry so I did not consider a long entry at that time.

Trade 1 short on rejection at yVAL, price worked down nicely but reversed back higher not long after the news release. LIS was yVAL with initial target to get back lower through OP and make new lows, continuing the overnight down trend.

Trade 2 short on rejection at Overnight high/yVAH. Price worked back down but stalled out at the yVAL area and it would have been hard to hold on through the chop so probably exit during that chop with a small winner. LIS was VAH and initial target idea was a move back towards the OP or lower.

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 babba 
Fresno California USA
 
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I am trying to get a feel for NQ and am sim trading it for now. These are trade opportunities that I saw today. I'm still too aggressive with my entries especially at the open and need to learn to wait for confirmation. I really didn't feel comfortable shorting it after 12 est thinking that it would come back up after a test of the ORH/R1 but it turned out to be a nice H&S. I completely forgot about the 3600 as a good reference level and I thank DCtrade for reminding me of it in his post.

1. Short break of the London low, break of VAL stopped with a loss after it broke up past the open

2. Long failed to get past the VAL on second test, long on close above open exited when I saw volume drying up

3. Long continuation long looking at the R2 and weekly high as possible exits exit on failure to get past R2

4. Short break of the R2 scratch out

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 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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babba View Post
I am trying to get a feel for NQ and am sim trading it for now. These are trade opportunities that I saw today. I'm still too aggressive with my entries especially at the open and need to learn to wait for confirmation. I really didn't feel comfortable shorting it after 12 est thinking that it would come back up after a test of the ORH/R1 but it turned out to be a nice H&S. I completely forgot about the 3600 as a good reference level and I thank DCtrade for reminding me of it in his post.

1. Short break of the London low, break of VAL stopped with a loss after it broke up past the open

2. Long failed to get past the VAL on second test, long on close above open exited when I saw volume drying up

3. Long continuation long looking at the R2 and weekly high as possible exits exit on failure to get past R2

4. Short break of the R2 scratch out

Hey Babba, nice chart,not cluttered up with too many things!You mentioned the or for the nq.I know for the cl,alot of tradrers that followed mfs thread were using 8:30 to 9:15.I have the ib range up for the cl/nq and ym,which is the opening 1/2 hour of the rth session.What or are you using for the nq?

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 babba 
Fresno California USA
 
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bobarian,

For now, I'm using the first 20 min of the RTH for the NQ OR. My Cl OR is the same as MF's but NQ is still a work in progress for me and the OR for it may still be subject to change. The IB is also an OR that I might look at for myself.

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 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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Overnight CL had worked well outside of previous day value. Price moved up nicely but during the Euro session price stalled out on the upside and started working back down to value prior to the RTH session. On the RTH open, price shot lower into previous day value and then worked lower throughout the session, recovering a bit near the close.

My trading plan did not offer a lot of trades today, first opportunity would have been to try and short off of the open but I never could find a place where I liked the risk so I took no action.

I marked an area prior to the news where I thought of a short entry but had to hold off until the news report came out.

Trade 1 short opportunity was after the news as price worked back up near the yPOC and overnight lows and rejected back lower. Price got back under yday value and when it retested back up and failed it offered a nice low risk short opportunity. Price retested yVAL one more time and then shot down lower to Friday low where we got a nice volume spike exit opportunity or you could have held on a bit to see if it would work on down lower.

Trade 2 long opportunity after the exhaustion volume spike around 12:45 my time. Price moved back above Friday close with momentum and volume supporting the move. Price worked higher until the RTH close which would have been a good exit area as price was hitting yVAL again.

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  #75 (permalink)
 calitrader 
San Jose, CA
 
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Hi
I have been following this journal and also the old mfb journal for a while. I have been trading exclusively CL for about 18 months and was trying to get a workspace setup for NQ. It doesn't seem like the default NT session templates really fit most markets. I was trying to make my own but I ended up a little confused after looking at the CME's site so thought I would ask the group.

Here's what I have so far:


I was wondering if someone could post a capture of their NQ with RTH/EH/O-N template. Maybe Sunday through Wednesday so I can see the pattern? Thank you.

Chris

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  #76 (permalink)
 calitrader 
San Jose, CA
 
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calitrader View Post
Hi
I have been following this journal and also the old mfb journal for a while. I have been trading exclusively CL for about 18 months and was trying to get a workspace setup for NQ. It doesn't seem like the default NT session templates really fit most markets. I was trying to make my own but I ended up a little confused after looking at the CME's site so thought I would ask the group.

Here's what I have so far:


I was wondering if someone could post a capture of their NQ with RTH/EH/O-N template. Maybe Sunday through Wednesday so I can see the pattern? Thank you.

Chris

Sorry for the spam on the thread. I did a little searching and found a thread Fat Tails started that answered the question for all markets. Rather than delete my post I thought put the link up.


Chris

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  #77 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Triple Dose of CL. Neither bullish or bearish but playing video game.

Tuesday special. For an instruement which mostly has ADR of 150 ticks, traders waste more time coming up with various scenarios than one care to count. Every time i think of SWING trading CL, i get reminded of double, triple

round trips of CL and i stick to day trading.

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 dctrade69 
Springfield, MO
 
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CL spent the majority of the overnight session in y'day value. Overnight one attempt was made above value but it rejected and pushed back lower. Prior to the RTH open price moved back above yPOC and found some support at yPOC on the open. Price made a new high before pulling back one more time to the yPOC where it rotated higher again to a new high. Price moved up nicely until it failed out at y'day high and then sold off one more time back down to POC at the RTH close. Big rotational day with lots of range to trade within.

My trading ideas

Trade 1 idea long just after the open on yPOC support. Price moved up nicely until stalling out at the WORH/overnight high area with volume spike for exit cue

Trade 2 idea short when price worked lower back into y'day value area. Price moved down nicely from there but again stalled out at yPOC/OP giving a small win or a scratch on this trade idea at best.

Trade 3 idea long as price again moved out of y'day value. Price moved on up to make new highs reaching a point of exhaustion volume near y'day high

Trade 4 idea short after way too much standing around and OTF's started feeling bearish. 15m chart gave a nice LH/LL setup short and price traded lower until the RTH close.

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