Big movement at the open made for a nice trade early in the session. I didn't exit it properly or take the reshort entries as I should have. 125, 0, 4, 0 rounded out the NQ session for me. Notes outlining my entry reasons, stop placements and general thoughts are on the chart.
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CL was a mess today, very choppy and limited trading opportunities for my trading style.
We opened the session within value. Prior to RTH we had pushed under value but it was rejected and on the open price shot higher. I was unable to identify a place to get on that move higher as we were pushing into key levels over and over and I wasn't comfortable so I sat aside. After the move up we simply chopped around between the high of day and the POC, neither willing to give up and let price move any further. Trade ideas listed below
Trade 1 short on Failed A up looking for push back into value. Price moved back down and stalled with volume at the POC giving an exit cue for the short trade. LIS would have been a close back above y'day high.
Trade 2 long on support at POC looking for price to continue the up move and make new highs. LIS was a close below POC. While I was scared out of this trade and took a loss on my account, the trade held the stop area just fine on the deep pullback and eventually worked out but I doubt many traders would have had the courage to stick this trade out so I consider it a failed trade.
After that I wasn't going to look for any more trades unless we got out of the trading range with some conviction, which we never did so my day was done.
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NQ gave a nice trading day with lots of movement and solid respect of the levels i watch each day. Overnight price was much higher on some news from AAPL and overall bullish sentiment.
As always on the open when we are outside of value I look for a push away from value and if that doesn't happen then the expectation is a push back towards value, which happened today with gusto. Price worked down quickly to value stalling and bouncing at POC then pushing down a second time to test through value and stalled at y'day low, pushing higher from there. Price then worked back up but could never get back into the overnight range, stalling at the overnight low. Trade ideas listed below
Trade 1 short on push back towards value. Price moved swiftly and I felt a 5m close below y'day high was necessary to make this trade stick. LIS was y'day high. This move down was accompanied with high volume all the way down so exit cues were a little hard to identify. Exit ideas were either at VAH or POC and price stalled out for a pullback right off of POC, a great area to take profits.
Trade 2 short on pullback and second push into value. LIS was close above VAH. Price pushed again with strength until it failed to find sellers below y'day low and price stalled out. An interesting side note, the 30m and higher time frames never closed a candle body within value, a cue that we were headed back higher for me.
Trade 3 long on bullish 60m candle supported by 30m bullish candles and a 5m higher low/higher high pattern above value. LIS for me was any close below the previous 30m bullish candle body. Price moved up nicely to the overnight low where price stalled and hung around forever giving lots of time to exit this trade idea with a nice profit.
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Newt- my friend. Just remeber we do not count . Try not to ever trade against market internals. I do not care if it's a 30
minutes bullish candle. Something which entire WORLD can see has limited value. Yes, on rotational day but not on a day like
NOTE: This may not be help but 1 year of testing has convinced me not to trade NQ with 20-30 ticks stop loss. I trade differently so it may not apply to you. However, tight stop loss is O.K till method, execution get set in
24K GOLD. That's the limitation of trading Order flow. Order Flow does not come in and out per our STOP LOSS.
Last edited by mfbreakout; April 25th, 2014 at 04:55 PM.
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CL spent the overnight session above y'day value area. At the open price could not make a push back towards value, instead pushing strongly away from value and testing the 102 area. Price could not build conviction above 102 and spent the rest of the RTH session working back down and eventually touching y'day VAH to the tick and then working back up to close near the RTH Opening Print.
This gave us good ranges to trade within and easily identifiable areas to enter with limited risk on each entry.
Trade 1 long after the first 5m bar could not push towards value. Price worked up directly with no pullbacks to the high of the day, where we stalled giving many opportunities to exit with a nice profit on this trade.
Trade 2 short after price stalled and could not hold the 102s. OTF's started getting bearish and the price moved back under 102 giving a low risk short opportunity to try and move back to value or at least give a move lower to then get a pullback long trade. Price moved nicely down to the Opening Print where we had a high volume 1m spike suggesting a good exit point with a nice profit.
Trade 3 short on a pullback and push back below the OP, continuing the move back to value. 15m candle closed bearish under OP to support this idea as well. There was no big volume spike to suggest an exit but when price stalled out directly at y'day VAH and started back up you could exit anywhere along the way with a decent profit.
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NQ gave us a choppy rotational day today testing in and out of yesterday's value area. Early price could not hold outside of value and only after rejecting a move below the IB low could price then gain the buying power needed to get up and out of value for the session.
Today for my trading, I was focusing heavily on limiting my risk by entering as close as I could to the key levels I trade around. Several nice setups presented themselves today as listed here.
Trade 1 short when price could not stay above yDay VAH. Price moved down swiftly but was immediately rejected at the overnight low. For my account I had to scratch this as price rocketed back up to my entry level, so I considered this a failed trade
Trade 2 short after the news when price worked again stalled within value. I considered this a short opportunity as price moved below the OP, continuing the down move of the previous two 5m bars. Price moved down and eventually got below the overnight low but was quickly rejected when the IB low held and price reversed moving higher.
Trade 3 long after the IB low reversal. My trading plan had me waiting until we cleared the overnight low to give a good low risk entry and show some bullish strength. Price moved up through the OP but stalled out at y'day VAH for a long time giving lots of exit opportunities.
Trade 4 long after price broke above y'day VAH and retested. To get correct risk, you had to wait for price to come back near the VAH otherwise it would have required a lot of risk that I wasn't interested in taking. Price then moved on up giving new HOD and time to exit when the bars started getting bearish again.
Price just bounced around after that showing little conviction
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