Wish I was more tempted . This was a mistake on my part. There should be no predictions or strong biases that dont let you trade what you see. Violated my own setup today due to this. Unfortunately, I got stuck on a level and failed to execute but thats not as important.
From before the open, the setups were screaming short. Based on Euro context, price had made it all the way to the ADR and on such days, a continuation of the move is rare. This is similar to the setup in ES a couple of days ago when we opened at the ADR high. So, pre-open, the ADR high was shortable. Then we had a failure to take out the ORH. After the report, we had a 5K anchor bar and from what I have learnt from MFB, the mid point of such bars are shortable and this pattern repeats most of the times on report days. Further, we had pullbacks to the WORH and the US A down area that were shortable. As I write this, we are approaching a critical level that will change the long term analysis I posted earlier today. If 103 fails to hold, 102.30 and 101.50 areas are next in the long term.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
The following 9 users say Thank You to LogicalTrader for this post:
I'm going to post this now because I have to leave early.
Basically these are areas I considered taking trades, in the ovals and area where exits were considered in the rectangle.
1. Short on overall bearish diverge, wait for close below the open to short with a stop at the open. This entry would be a stop out.
2. Short after the report on pullback to the WORH which also happens to be the prior VAH from 3/4. Watched the 15 minute again to manage the trade. On the 15 minute the ADX was climbing and the slow line on the oscillator was showing a steep bearish trend. Exit either at Mon. VAL or wait for the diverge as Gerald Appell would say in his book.
Since this is an A down day I would be looking for a possible pullback to short.
The following 9 users say Thank You to babba for this post:
Oil Report Wednesday, never for the faint of heart! Overnight CL had broken out of value and moved strongly higher, moving up until ultimately rejecting at the 105.00 area. From there price chopped around lower until the RTH open.
On oil report days I am really only looking for one trade during RTH prior to the report and that needs to be close to the open. After that I try to wait for the report and then get back into the action.
The report formed a negative push lower and price continued that move lower the rest of the morning until eventually it stalled out at S1 with good exhaustive volume, signaling that the move for the day might be over. Price then worked higher back up into y'day value for the close very near y'day POC.
There were four areas I considered taking trades, identified below:
Trade 1 long after the open when price could not move lower with conviction. This often leads to a push further away from value. Price managed to push back above the opening print but never found any buyers so if you participated in this trade it would have most likely been at best a very small profit or a loss if you held on for long. LIS for my use on a setup like this is a close back below the OP. Initial upside target was to get back up and test the 105 area and see if price could move on higher with strength.
Trade 2 short after the news release. Price had been standing around after the report and after pushing back up to the WORH, CL rejected and pushed strongly lower, giving us a confirmed A down day. LIS was a close above WORH and initial target idea was a move into value reaching POC at minimum. High volume exit points were at POC and globex low or you could hold on and use Higher time frames to manage the trade lower.
Trade 3 short after price bounced up from VAL and held below POC rejecting POC and pushing lower. LIS was close above POC with initial target of y'day low. Price never made it down that far but a nice high volume exit signal was given right at the daily S1 level.
Trade 4 long as higher time frames started reversing and getting bullish. At 12 my time the 30m closed back above the previous bearish bar and giving a reasonable long opportunity with LIS being a close back below the bullish candle body. Initial target was a move back into value and POC minimum, which it reached and stalled out until the close.
Solid well structured day with nice respect of the key areas I use. Confirmed a down, strong use of y'day value, especially POC.
The following 13 users say Thank You to dctrade69 for this post:
Today I learned several hard lessons. 1) Don't breakaway from your rules. 2) Be very careful on Wednesdays.
All sim trades (which I treat very seriously BTW, I will not go live until I can prove myself in Sim)
Trade 1 My intent was to take a short off the rejection of Globex Hi. My DOM was not set up properly so I had to take the time to reset my stop/limit in my DOM. By the time I got set up the trade had run quite a ways and I entered very late. Price turned right around and hit my 40 tic hard stop. Had I entered correctly it would have been a winner. I have my stop/limit locked in correctly now thanks to Silver99. Execution error for -40 tics
Trade 2 this one baffled me a bit. I got short at 3492.25 on a rejection of globex low. Price ran straight down to VAH with some force. I waited for it to clear VAH and it turned against me. I'm not quite sure what I could have done differently since I was watching the 1m for a volume spike at VAH and never saw it. I guess I was daydreaming as MFB would say. -36 tics
My rules say to quit after 2 losers and I ignored them and went into chase mode after this point. That was my worst mistake of the day
Trade 3 Price moved upward with force on the 9:20 5m bar. once the 5m cleared Y'day hi I went long looking for ORH. Price immediately turned down and I exited at ORL for -33 tics
Trade 4 Back to the woodshed! I went long at 11:10 when price had traveled all the way up from VAH to globex hi. I tried to get on board at the end of the line. I held this trade waaay to long daydreaming and eventually got out for -35 tics.
I realize nobody on this thread wants to see my crappy trades today but I need to post it hoping the humiliation will teach me a lesson. Any comments, chastisements, encouragement, teasing, etc.... are welcome.
The following 11 users say Thank You to Robroyrogers for this post:
After the big moves of yesterday, today proved to be a more challenging market to trade. Very rotational with a battle between y'days value and a previous NPOC as well as fighting over the 3500 level.
Overnight price had been all above value so at the open as always I was playing two ideas, push back to value or push further away from value. Price could not establish above the npoc area at the open so it was back to value today. Price was pretty choppy on the way down.
Once price reached value it was strongly rejected and pushed back up to retest the area of 3500/yday high before retesting to see if we could get back into y'day value. Price was once again unable to hold within value and from there price moved higher, making a new HOD. Price rotated back down and again checked the 3500 area before again moving up to make new highs just before the NYSE close.
I don't have time tonight to discuss all of the potential trade opportunities from today but there were many, first on the short side until value held and then on the long side on the way back up. I have placed some arrows on the charts where I saw areas worthy of consideration for trades.
The following 7 users say Thank You to dctrade69 for this post:
Here are the areas I am focusing on as we move into the RTH session. Currently trading inside y'day value as we approach the news event in a few minutes. We have been within the same range for the last several days (between 104.50 and 103.00) and really would be nice to see a breakout to one side or the other.
NQ is currently testing right at VAH. RTH open will be looking for hold within value or a breakout of value to move higher
Last edited by dctrade69; April 17th, 2014 at 09:10 AM.
The following 6 users say Thank You to dctrade69 for this post:
Pre holiday tape today with little volume. The first entry points I observed today were based on a bearish diverge and bearish daily assessment. Got that wrong. The long entry points were seen as A up continuations. At 12:15 est price clearly broke down past the 20 ema on a bearish diverge but it moved too fast for me to consider a short. Mostly what I saw were scalps. After the last setup I called it a day as far as looking for entries.
1 and 2 short on bearish diverge both are stopped outs. First short was too soon with the 20 ema not even broken. Second short there were a couple of 5 minute closes below the 20 ema and the open.
3 long on break of OR, the ADX on the 15 min. was low and the slow line was mildly bullish so exit at the VAH when price stalled with a high volume 1 min. bar
4 long A up continuation, price not was closing below VAH for several bars , exit with bearish diverge.
5 long A up continuation hoping to see it hit yesterday's high exit when price failed to move higher after hi volume 1 minute bar and bearish diverge and volume weakening.
6 short price broke back down through VAH, slow line crossing zero, exit at ORH
7 short price failed to reach VAH, slow line still bearish, exit when price failed break past open on retest , also bullish diverge showing up.
Have a great holiday and weekend everyone.
The following 5 users say Thank You to babba for this post:
It's good to see someone started a new Journal. GREAT & CONGRATULATION- for stepping upto the plate.
I like to tease my friend "Logical trader" - when i read something like following
" From before the open, the setups were screaming short". I always feel or felt like this when i missed or wanted a trade to work really, really BAD. However, shorts were there as ACD mastero pointed out.
Last edited by mfbreakout; April 17th, 2014 at 03:44 PM.
The following 8 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
CL overnight had worked within value and was unable to work below the y'day POC. Once POC supported price, the bigger picture was long with a pullback retest during RTH of the RTH Opening Print.
Several trading opportunities presented themselves as described below
Trade 1 long on Failed A down. Price rotated around OP for the first hour and with the close of the first hour we had all time frames closing above OP with bullish sentiment. Nice low risk entry opportunity with LIS of close back below OP. Exit cues were given with high volume spikes at VAH/WORH and later at R1 if you had held through the stall at VAH. Initial target on this trade was to work to and above value for ultimate target at 105.
Trade 2 long on A up day and price holding at VAH unable to get back into value. Price had stalled and was standing around this area before pushing on up to R1 where high volume appeared offering the chance to safely exit as price stayed around R1 for a good period of time. Initial target was to get back up to 105 area.
Trade 3 short on rejection at R1 for a counter trend push back towards value. LIS was close back above R1 with exit cues given with high volume at VAH retesting and again at the opening Print area. Initial target was to get back into value and then to POC or lower.
Trade 4 long pullback long on A up day with hold at the opening print. LIS was OP/WORL. Initial target was VAH and higher. Exit cues were given either at VAH or simply hold til RTH Close.
The following 9 users say Thank You to dctrade69 for this post: