You can find some short info about my strategies & tactics here.
Let's start from cotton. Market demand for cotton was pretty high starting from last November & price was getting higher all the time because of a limited supply too. But currently, cotton ICE future prices depends mostly from weather conditions at so called USA "cotton belt" plantations of Texas, Arkansas, California, Mississippi & Arizona states. In this states cotton planting begins in the end of February & continues until the beginning of April. So prices move according to this cycle - they reach maximums of the year somewhere in the middle of March. During this period cotton seeds in the ground are very vulnerable, so traders are concerned with a future crop. But after this period of concerns usually weather stabilizes, pollination begins & prices go down. And average seasonal chart shows this fact. Below is an average May-July spread chart during last 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. All lines go down until the beginning of April.
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According to messages, weather conditions in other parts of a world where cotton grows are stable & good. In Brazil weather is warm & rains are expected in the end of this week.
There was a good opportunity to sell this calendar spread today at 2.00 price. But my margin is exhausted because I made a mistake when opened a crude oil sell position at 0.99. So I'll just keep in mind this cotton seasonal. This cotton position has to be closed in the beginning of April or with a $450 profit.
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I would be concerned about the track record for trading "seasonals". I seem to recall a Wall Street Journal article some time ago about the dismal track record for Jake Bernstein's Seasonal Trading recommendations. Is it so simple and obvious I wonder ?