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Journal of trading price levels/zones


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Journal of trading price levels/zones

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  #1 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Hi,

Few things about me: As of 22. Feb. 2014 I'm not consistently profitable yet. I trade live mainly eur/usd spot forex but I make my trading decisions off futures charts only.

I will keep this journal flexible and I welcome you to participate in it.

I'm trying to keep my trading and charts as simple as possible. Read more why: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/21/magazine/do-you-suffer-from-decision-fatigue.html?_r=3&smid=fb-share&pagewanted=all&

I'm excited to keep journaling here and become a better trader after lurking many years.

It's now or never!

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  #3 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received


Yesterday I had one trade. I sold eur/usd at 1,3751 with sl at 1,3766 and took profit at 1,3725. The entry was little early but the outcome was good and I made it according to my plan.

Some things about my 6E charts. Dark gray is Asian session from daily open to Frankfurt open (7AM GMT). Gray is European session from 7AM GMT till NY open 1PM GMT. Maroon is European-NY overlap from 1PM GMT till European close 5PM GMT. Brown is late NY session till daily close. Vertical lines are daily open. Horizontal lines are 1,3750, 1,3725, 1,3700, 1,3675 etc.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Lately I have been learning about human's cognitive biases and fallacies which affect trading and decision making. For example most of us know about hindsight bias: "Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable at the time those events happened." Now that I truly understand it, it's easier not to get too much emotional and do stupid trades after missed trade because I can't be sure if I could have been able to trade it as it happened. I just accept it and move on.

Another example is wishful thinking – "a specific type of appeal to emotion where a decision is made according to what might be pleasing to imagine, rather than according to evidence or reason." When I realize that I'm thinking wishfully, I know that I'm not trading as I should be and for example I have missed to take profit and the trade keep going further against me if I can't close it because of wishful thinking.


What do you think about those human mind "limitations"?

Read more:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuroeconomics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrationality

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  #5 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

At Monday I shorted eur/usd at 1,3750 and the trade just closed at breakeven. The trade had been two times more than 30 ticks in profit but I couldn't close it and that made me wondering which entry and exit points I could trust more and I also came to the conclusion that I shouldn't hope for home runs, just take the profit that is available.

So I asked myself where could I enter trades that would be constant no matter what instrument, timeframe, (regular) bartype, volatility or anything else? Prior to my new method, I used round numbers to enter my trades but I had a feeling that they aren't that good and I can't trust them enough.

Session/daily/weekly etc. high, low, median etc. are maybe only constant levels no matter what tf, volatility etc. so I wrote two indicators to plot session and daily high, low and 50%(median) and 25% levels (if session range is big enough). I was thrilled to see them on my charts (see the attachement). I don't need to adjust them for changing market conditions or instrument by instrument. Those levels seems to be great levels and colors should help me to pull the trigger. Sure that is still all about discrection and experience in the end but that's the way I want it to be.

I can't remember how many times I have been saying "this is it" only to change things shortly after and I'm sure you can relate that with me. I'm going to keep my charts as they are now for two weeks and only then change something if necessary. If I can't trade them, charts are certainly fine and I should look in the mirror.


Good trading to all!

BTW this is it.

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  #6 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

One trade today and I'm done for the day. Sold eur/usd at 1,3745 after it failed to move higher and took profit at 1,3695 for 50 ticks. I really like this new chart setup.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Shorted eur/usd this morning at new daily low at 1,3677 and took profit at 1,3657 for 20 ticks. I was about to sell 10 ticks higher at median level but missed it and then I was quite nervous to short new low but R:R was still there and yesterday's big move down was helping the decision. London kept selling so the trade went fine.

Let's see what the rest of the day brings. It could go lower, who knows.. I trade the market, nothing else.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

OMG. I still trade spot fx because lack of funds and I only have one broker (Oanda). They have been really good for many years but today few minutes after I bought eur/usd at 1,3663 their trading platform, website and everything went down! My trade size isn't that big so I didn't try to reach them by phone, I just waited and read discussion on twitter what was going on. Well they were over two hours down (they said there was problems with their internet service provider) and luckily my trade was going well even I couldn't manage it anyway..

I decided to close my trade after the trading platform started to work without much thought and to put end for this episode.

That is fellow traders why backup plans needs to be in check, anything can happen.. And I'm moving to several futures brokers as soon as I have enough funds.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

This is what Oanda said about today's downtime..


Update - On February 27th, OANDA's primary Internet Service Provider (ISP) experienced an outage and as a result our platform lost internet connectivity. We want to assure our clients that at no time was any confidential information breached.

At this time, we would like to report that through the outage our clients were protected in several ways:

-The platform continued to function throughout the network outage and executed stored client orders (Take Profit, Stop Loss, Margin Calls, etc.)
-Client orders triggered on these prices

We take this matter very seriously and are working with our network providers to add additional resiliency to our network connections, to ensure our clients have uninterrupted access to fxTrade. We are also working with our ISPs to evaluate their existing infrastructure as several of their other customers were also affected by this outage.

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  #10 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received


Simple bad decisions were made on Friday and I made two losing trades and one small profit. When London opened price crossed daily median line and I sold at 1,3710 and later eurozone CPI number came and my SL was hit at 1,3739 for -29 ticks. I wasn't flexible enought to reverse my trade at new daily high before the news and I took a little bit bigger loss because I didn't want to get shaked out unnecessarely. The price was moving so fast that I completely missed the train to the north.

Then I still wanted to short but daily 25% line was 30 ticks from the daily high and I thought that when daily range gets big like today, R:R-ratio for reversal trades becomes small so I added 12,5% reversal line to my levels which activates when range is big enough. 12,5% line was there when I shorted eur/usd again at 1.3800 and my SL got hit at 1.3822 for -22 ticks. Then I shorted one more time again at 12,5% line at 1.3809 but reversal never happened and I managed to get out at 1.3804 for 5 ticks.

At the start of the week when I tried to hold my short two days from 1,3750, I ended up breakeven. Wednesday's and Thursday's trades were great but I couldn't hold them further even they had the potential to move. Losing trades for me happens when I miss a big move and I try to trade against it for a big reversal which seldom happens. I need to be more focused to trade the market, nothing else like p/l, fear/greed, what I think about economic numbers or previous trades.

I started to trade those session/daily levels at Wednesday and I like them a lot. They give me clear levels to concentrate. I tweaked settings for them a little bit at Friday evening, added 12,5 % level, current week high/low and I wanted to see five complete trading days on my chart but the method stayed the same. When big daily range like yesterday happens, 12,5 % and 25 % levels should only be used for tp or just let a trade running, shouldn't try to short at them hoping for reversal.

Monday: 0ticks
Tuesday: -
Wednesday: 50 ticks
Thursday: 20 ticks and 47 ticks
Friday: -27 ticks, -22 ticks and 5ticks

total: 73 ticks

Even the Friday was bad, the week was positive and I'm encouraged to keep trading those levels. Great weekend to everyone!

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  #11 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

It would be nice to hear from you any comments about the way I'm trading and does anyone know anyone who is trading similarly?

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 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

One trade today: sold eur/usd at Asian session low 1,3772 and took profit at 1,3737 for 35 ticks. That took a long time to move but I'm glad that I hold it and didn't put my sl to breakeven because lower highs and no reason to buy that high.

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  #13 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Only one trade today also. I sold eur/usd at 1,3757 and hours later I was very close to being stopped out in NY session but the trade worked finally and I just took profit at 1,3730 for 27 ticks. When the trade came back from closely being stopped out to be, the entry level was still ok and the price was more likely to go down, so I didn't close it at be or took small profit - the decision was hard but that's the thing in trading..

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 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Bought eur/usd at 1,3718 and the trade is still open. Let's see if it survives Asian session or not. Tomorrow and Friday are going to be volatile..

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 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received


Peke5 View Post
Bought eur/usd at 1,3718 and the trade is still open. Let's see if it survives Asian session or not. Tomorrow and Friday are going to be volatile..

I made a mistake to put this trade to BE at the time of ECB rate decision (unchanged as expected) and usual stop hunt went 1 pip beyond my breakeven SL and later Draghi's press conference shot eur/usd high.. Then I wasn't as ready to trade press conference as I should have been, and managed to make two losing trades before I got the direction right and bought eur/usd but I couldn't hold it the whole move up and ended up making two losing trades more (sold after take profit) in that day. I don't have chart to show those trades anymore as I changed them after that shitty day.

I have sold or bought almost all weekly highs or lows past several weeks and few times managed to make nice profit but too many times I have ended up breakeven or little profit and then I have missed big moves and usually also made losing trades on them (see attachement). My previous chart with session and daily levels had five trading days on it and that's way too few, so I have now two charts: one long term (about 6 weeks of trading days and days are divided at NY open to two trading sessions) and one short term. I'm looking for good levels from long term charts where I want to make trades, which direction and how long I should hold them that I won't tp or be too early (based on short term or anything else, for example fear) when I could have bought weekly low etc. Short term chart has levels which I'll use to take entries and exits. If I see high probability level at long term chart but the price just ignores it and goes further without going past any of those entry levels, I won't make trades "blindly" at those longer term levels.

Third attachement shows my short term chart and my only trade at Friday when I sold eur/usd at the break of the first line and made 38 ticks profit. I made 26 ticks total this week.


Profitable trading is all about making as few mistakes as possible and if a mistake is made, it should be fixed asap.

Another thing that I need to concentrate on is that when strong order flow is going on like at Thursday, price usually goes the same direction the whole session or longer so I should not fight against it.

My next week's goal is to not make any mistakes (losing trades aren't always mistakes). Well that goal is going to be always one of my trading goals, it's that important!

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 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

A lot has changed again. I'm going to write about my latest epiphanys and this weeks trades here the next weekend. I'm currently short eur/usd from 1,3949 and euro could weaken even more tomorrow. Let's see what happens.

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 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

I coded few months ago an indicator which paints bars based on bar's time to complete it (see previous post's attachment). Then I coded an indicator to paint different sessions (many examples earlier in this thread). I really like that option to paint bars how you want them to look like and it's more easily to read charts when all of the information (background/context) is on bars than on bars and different price panels.

In recent days I coded more of those paintbar indicators: to paint volume on minute-based bars, to paint volume/time on non-minute-based charts, to paint cci on any chart, to paint maspread on any chart. All of them are really great but the maspread seems to be the best for my style (see the attachement for one of my chart I'm trading off now). Beautiful isn't it?

There is some psychology stuff (it's hard for me to take profits) which holds me back at the moment and that's now what I'm working on. Enough about charts..


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 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

What a ride, again.. As I said, taking profits has been hard for me and the last trade wasn't exeption. I sold yesterday eur/usd daily high and I should have taken profits for 50 ticks at daily support but I couldn't. Luckily the trade worked finally and I was able to tp it for 120 ticks.

Earlier trades this week have been small loses, winners or breakevens, nothing worth talking about expect exit's have been bad. Last weeks short trade from weekly high was 100 ticks in profit but ended up breakeven on Monday.. If I miss "optimal" take profit level, I still need to act according to probabilities and close or open a trade little higher/lower, no wishful thinking!


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  #19 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

I should not fight against strong trends and just go for a home-run... 1000 vol chart is now my only chart, I need to see bigger picture all the time, lower timeframes makes me see countertrends much bigger than they really are..


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  #20 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

I'm definitely going to use this! This week was ok, one big trade and few small winners and losers. The next week I'm going to trade more often and see how it goes..


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  #21 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

4 trades today (eur/usd): +27 ticks, 0 ticks, 0 ticks and +22 ticks=+49ticks. Good day, I had much more confidence with my trading now and I really can see and analyze my charts better and act according to probabilities, my vizualization is helping a lot!



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  #22 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Now I feel like shit Basic support trailing of my stop could have yielded 75 ticks more.. And I was basically expecting move up but I didn't have patience for it.

Well I can't do anything about it, just try to manage trades better in the future, I just had to share this.


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  #23 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Okay I'm starting this journal again. I'm going to share every trade I take from now on.

The first entry of the day gbp/usd:



GBP is very high atm and I think some profit taking is due after that PMI report and piercing of round number.

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  #24 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

Still short GBP/USD with stop at breakeven. For now I let it run till tomorrow, the potential for a bigger down move is still there.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

If you take a look at above and below volume charts, my indicator paints bars based on how fast they are completed, so it highlights white/light gray areas that are high volume bars on time-based charts. Then I simple ask if it's going to make a reversal or continuation and then a follow up question reversal/continuation now or later and take as good entry as possible (or do nothing) and manage the trade based on context etc. just like I'm taking those entries. Maybe first time that method is something I truly believe in.




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  #26 (permalink)
 Peke5 
Tampere/Finland
 
 
Posts: 90 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 287 given, 91 received

I couldn't babysit my gbp/usd short trade after PMI report, so I put limit tp order which got triggered while I was away and I got 31 pips from it. Trade was ok. GBP is still under pressure but NFP is around the corner so it's good to be flat anyway. It was also refreshing to trade other currency pair than eur/usd which I had trade many months exclusively.

Let's see how NFP shakes the markets in a few hours.

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