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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Hi,

My handle is "Underexposed" which makes the title a bit provocative I suppose but I have used this handle for several years now and some people may recognize me because of it.

This is a great site and primarily devoted to American stocks. While I do have a small American stock portfolio as Canadians have unfettered access to American stocks, the reverse is not true. Unless the Canadian company decides to open a listing on an American exchange, the company will be virtually unknown to American investors.

Canadian markets are very much influenced by commodities. For example, in the Oil and Gas and Mining sectors, the Canadian market leads the world in listings of new and established companies.

https://www.tmx.com/en/pdf/Mining_Sector_Sheet.pdf

https://www.tmx.com/en/pdf/OilGas_Sector_Profile.pdf

This especially shows itself in the new listings which can be important as if successful, they either can grow to be substantial companies over time or are takeover targets for larger companies. The NYSE may have a larger market value for their mining stocks but that is simply because they represent more mature, large companies. The junior stocks for O&G and Mining which have more growth potential are better represented in Canada and will be seen by Americans only if they search the OTCB which is the easiest route of entry for Canadian companies into the American market.

The my purpose in creating this journal is to show how I go about selection Canadian stock with side comments at times on how to avoid scams in the Canadian and American market in commodity stocks. I use a mixed approach of Fundamental analysis to identify potential good candidates for investment and the final selection, timing, follow-up is always done with Technical analysis.

I am basically a long term swing (3 to 8 weeks) and long term investor (two months to three years). I don't enter a trade with the idea that it will last x-number of weeks and out. The length of my hold depends on the performance of the stock.

It is my belief that, the longer the hold, the more important Fundamentals play in selecting stocks. I do not "day trade"...that depends on a special skill set to which Fundamental analysis is basically quite useless due to the short duration of the trade making fundamentals not important, as anything can happen in one or two days.

So for my style of trading uses Fundamentals (and I am still learning this type of analysis) picking likely candidates and Technical charting providing market timing and on-going monitoring.

I well set up a spreadsheet where I will allocate myself $100,000 worth of play money. It is not an overly complicated spreadsheet but for the newbie it might give you an idea of how to create one for themselves. I will divide that money into use in 5 sectors ($20,000 each) and select companies in each. I like a minimum of 1000 shares in stocks under $20/share and 500 shares for stocks in the $21-$40/share...I find I don't make money trading for lesser amounts of shares.

By this means we can monitor the good and bad trades I make and comment on them as time goes on. Please make constructive questions and comments as we go...then we can both learn.

My first sector will be Mining - Precious metals

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  #3 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Ok ...here we go {deep breath}

Precious metals include: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium. Contrary to some popular opinion and websites "copper" is not a precious metal.

If you look at websites selling bullion bars, wafers, rounds and coins for the first four metals you will always find a Buy price and a Sell price with generally a 5 or so percent spread in those prices around the current price for the metal. If you look at websites that sell "copper" as bullion you will ONLY see a sell price. That is because they don't want to buy it back as there is no market for resale copper bullion.

I remember talking to a guy on a website who was convinced copper bullion was the way to go. He wanted to invest $10,000 in copper bars. Well first of all, the bars were about $9/lb where the spot price for copper was about $3/lb...but if he still decided to go through with the purchase he would have over 1000 lbs of copper. Where would store this?? in your basement, garage or private storage (the fees outrank its actual worth). If he bought gold he would have had about 6 - 1 troy oz wafers which are safely stored in a safety deposit box. And the only place he could sell his copper stash would have been the scrap market which would give him a 1/3 of what he paid for it.....he did not think it through...

In general, I don't have possession of any physical bullion (other than a couple of oz of gold wafer purchased decades ago). I don't like mutual funds and ETF's that are supposed to have their units backed by gold in their vaults. There are stories that this is not entirely true and if a run were made on these companies they ould collapse like a house of cards.

I stay away from exploration companies as they are dream sellers. It takes a lot of work to find out if their dreams are true. I have done a lot of Due Dilligence (DD) for others in chat areas to find out if they are legit and if you have the tools you can figure it out. The problem with exploration activities is that it can take 10 or more years to bring a discovered deposit into a producing mine. You have to be skilled at looking at their drill results...not only for the quality of their grade but the depth of where it is found...a marginally good grade located 300 meters underground is not as good as they will tout it to be. Before that property is viable as a mine there is infrastructure to build such as roads, power, water, processing facilities if done on-site, housing for its workers (perhaps a town) if the mine is remote from civilization...all of this is time consuming and expensive to do.

I prefer producing mines. There everything is in place and they have operating revenue coming in. They may not be profitable yet if they are a new mine but in their financial quarterly reports you should see increasing operating revenue and decreasing debt if they are a good mine.

But the question is....which precious metal mining stock should I look at?

When you have a company which produces a commodity, look at the price of that commodity as the mining company revenues (hence the share price) rise and fall on their commodity price....so lets look at the price charts of the four real precious metals.









Gold looks like it is emerging from doldrums and decline into a bit of a breakout now...the price has broken through that year-long diagonal resistance (purple line) it continued to just recently break through a horizontal resistance at $1280 (at least for today) and has a nicely defined support line (green)....if it continues its rise I see its next obstacle as being that dotted line at around $1360.

Silver which usually lags Gold appears to be nearing a breakout...the price is appearing to be reaching the apex of that wedge....if it breaks through...it would be a confirmation for gold, for me

Platinum is more of an industrial metal than gold and silver though it has a jewelery function too. Its chart shows a breach of the long term resistance but was stopped by a horizontal resistance at about $1460. It is interesting that the previous resistance is now acting as a support....but the price decline makes it not exciting to me at this point.

Palladuim seems to be content to oscillate down a gently constricting channel. This metal is often called the "poor man's platinium as it has many of the same uses....but that chart is not interesting aat this point to me.

I wonder if someone could explain the bottom chart relating to contracts....it seems to my naive look at them that when the price of gold falls the lines narrow and a price rise in gold widens them... Is that a bullish chart or meaningless?

Of all these metals I will look to choosing a Gold mining stock (or two) for my first purchase attempt(s) for this journal

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  #4 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

It is not easy to choose a Canadian gold stock company. Basically it is sheer number of choices available in Canadian exchanges.

Stock Screener - Overview profitable gold basicmaterials o1 country

{I wish we had a FinViz-type screener for Canadian stocks}

If we select profitable gold companies with share prices above $1 on American exchanges, we get 19 companies total of which 12 are Canadian companies that have elected to list on the NYSE, NASDQ and AMEX. There are more good choices for Canadian companies for Gold mines but they have elected to enter the American market through the OTCB and are considered scams by most American investors....which they are not! For the most part Canadian companies that list BOTH in Canada and the USA are legitimate as it costs money to do this... Scam spotter tip: If a Canadian company lists in the USA but not on Canadian exchanges...it is probably a scam...very high probability IMHO.

Here is a stock screener I like to use on TMX Money which is the company that operates the Toronto Stock exchange. It is simple, free and the information is quite reliable.

This all for fundamental screening for now....I probably will return to fundamentals again in my next post after I use TA to knock down this list of potential candidates down to 4 or 5....the final decision of course will be made by TA considerations

Stock Screener | Search stocks by screener criteria

You can easily add and subtract criteria and I will start with just this simple criteria first

Criteria ........... Condition ............................. Values

Exchange ............... = ............................. all Canadian exchanges
Sector .................... = ............................. Basic Materials
Industry ................ = ............................. Metals and Mining
Sub-Industry .......... = ............................. Gold

Applying this to the above screener gets us 333 Canadian companies to choose from. Now the bulk of those are under $1 and hence are not usually considered good choices. However, if you are skilled at using fundamental analysis you can find some gold nuggets in those under $1 since most mining companies that are start-ups in Canada exchanges start under $1, unlike many USA stocks.

I am not going to look for stocks at those low price levels but I will give you some hints on what I look for to find the nuggets within the crap.

1. I don't like mining exploration companies.

They sell dreams and need to tout those dreams to keep their shares in front of the investing public. They do this through publishing drill results periodically and you must educate yourself as to what are good drill results and what are marginal. For example: if they find decent gold but it is 300 meters (roughly 900 feet) below the surface...you are talking an underground mine...expensive to create so the grade of the ore must be worth it.

They develop a property to a point where it attracts interest then they sell it...take the money and move on. The company itself is not a takeover prospect like producing mines...the share prices of an explorer rise until their good find is sold and then they fall back.

2. I don't like companies (usually explorers again) that have NO Debt AND NO Operating Revenue

It takes money to build a mine...lots of money...a start up mine should have debt and it should have a trickle at least of operating revenue. If they don't have either then they are not actively developing the property IMHO and I would expect scam in a lot of cases.

3. However, I look favourably on a start-up mine that has debt that is reducing on a quarterly basis and have operating revenue increasing...even slightly...they don't have be profitable yet...but they look to be on the way

Anyway...we don't discuss < $1.00 stocks here so we will enter a criteria that the price of the stock be >= $1.

But I also don't want a really expensive Gold stock either...long term if you pick a really good gold stock under $15 it can double or triple or more with time. An expensive gold stock may double in price with time but rarely does it get higher that that (a personal preference)

so here are some more criteria to my screener

Exchange ............... = ............................. all Canadian exchanges
Sector .................... = ............................. Basic Materials
Industry ................ = ............................. Metals and Mining
Sub-Industry .......... = ............................. Gold
Price ................. between ....................... 1 and 15
Market Cap ............ >= ........................... $500 million
Earnings per share > .............................. 0
Total Debt/Equity ... < .............................. 0.3

here is the results of the screen....much more manageable 9 companies with low debt and positive earnings with a decent market cap.



I will use TA to knock this down to 4-5 companies, fundamentals and TA again to make the final choice. But that is a later post.

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  #5 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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Great start to your journal. Looking forward to more.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #6 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well we narrowed the selection down to 9 possibles and the next step for me is to compare the performance of these 9 possibilities. I can take any time period I want but I will limit it to the last 2 months as Gold appears to be breaking out for the last 2 months so I want to see who is grabbing the limelight.

I use BigCharts.com for this comparison...I like the way it presents its results.



Well there appears to be 2 clear winners here, and I had hoped to narrow the choices to 4-5 but I cannot do that on the basis of this comparison in performance over the last 2 months. I will eliminate only three stocks here - Yamana Gold [YRI.TO], IAmGold Corp [IMG.TO] and Argonaut Gold [AR.TO]....a hard decision but we must move on.

At this point I want to have a look at fundamentals again.....this time it is the Income statement. I will reduce this selection before doing the rest of the decision making using TA. This may seem like a waste of time to a day-trader as they don't care about fundamentals ...and with good reason since fundamental analysis is useless to this type of trading....but if you want a stock for long term...then fundamentals become more important in the decision process IMHO.

the following are income statements of two companies that I have rejected after looking at them



Detour Gold Corp was the easiest ....turns out this is a new mine and is just starting production...that is why you don't see Operating Revenue in the first 4 quarters, followed with a decent amount of operating revenue but negative Net Revenue...the EPS is negative here on the last quarter but on the quote page it was positive...I checked at the Globe and Mail website and it was positive there as well....that is the problem with fundamental data....we will probably get the next financial report sometime this month so we are operating a bit blind here. Fundamental analysis is not unlike TA in that you are always trending numbers but where we as chartists try to make decisions on current data...fundamental guys make decisions on financial data that is at least 3 months old or more....from what I read the open pit mine has a low grade gold ore and there is only one property for this company...it would be a little like rolling dice on this one...it is worth a watch and is probably over priced give the ore quality and the expense processing the gold.

Dundee Precious Metals is a little to variable with alternating good and bad quarters for operating and net revenue.

I had to make a choice and these two were the worst IMHO



Of the 4 remaining candidates I am leaning toward Primero Mining but we shall next look at a bit of risk/reward in the TA

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  #7 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

ok...time to make a selection

I use 4 charts to come to a consensus rather than show the graphics in the post I will show the links and then a summary I will show the stocks in order of current closing share price

B2Gold [BTO.TO] $2.79

P&F chart

https://stockcharts.com:443/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=BTO.TO,PLUADANCBO&pref=G

Comment: currently challenging a support at $2.75...diagonal resistance at $2.95(weak)...stronger resistance at $3.15 to $3.25


Breakout chart

BTO.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: I really like this chart. There was a breakout on Jan 11...note the lead in by Slow Stoand MACD (both strong), then the trigger for a purchase with strong positive slope of BBwidth on Jan 11. That run ended on Jan 27 with all three indicators in decline.....the stock price was in consolidation since then and after falling to the 20day SMA (normal) it continued its climb as the Bollinger Bands (BB's) tightened as indicated by the BBwidth falling back to the previous trigger.....it is setting itself up for another breakout to the positive IMHO

Sentiment chart

BTO.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: Another great chart...the share price follows the CMF and that is bullish right now. The RSI has a nice gentle positive slope since early Dec...not extreme excitement yet (mildly bullish)...the ADX is gaining strength with diverging bullish DI+/-

Ichimoku chart

BTO.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: Pretty good chart here too....the share price has blasted above the red cloud this year with nice expanding gap between the thin blue/red lines (I never remember these)...could the On Bal Volume be any more BULLISH and the CCI is solidly green

***************************************************************************


New Gold Inc [NGD.TO] $6.28

P&F chart

https://stockcharts.com:443/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=NGD.TO,PLUADANCBO&pref=G

Comment: Not a good looking chart at all....bearish after falling back from a resistance at $6.55...there are some minor supports below 6.30 but the major one is at $6.05...has a lot of work to do before this is bullish.

Breakout chart

NGD.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: Well this chart looks better than the last....note how low the BBwidth is...the Bollies are ready to pop soon...the Slow Sto is fine but the trend of the MACD looks negative to me....it is a watch only for me in this chart....

Sentiment chart

NGD.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: the CMF is fine but looks topped out....the RSI has been slightly neg since mid January neutrally bearish and the ADX DI +/- looks topped out.

Ichimoku chart

NGD.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: the Ichi looks topped out with the thin red/blue lines converging...On bal Volume looks good but the CCI is very iffy.

***************************************************************************

Primero Gold Inc [p.TO] $7.00

P&F chart

https://stockcharts.com:443/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=P.TO,PLUADANCBO&pref=G

Comment: very bullish chart however it is approaching a resistance at $7.80 and looking at another chart it seems that this stock has had a problem passing $8.20 which was back in 2010. Investors have elephant memories about these things...I would want to see a strong break through $8.00 before I would put money here. Strong support at $6.30

Breakout chart

P.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: On the surface this looks bullish, but the share price has been over the upper Bollie for 3 days ...I think there will be a pullback soon (Feb 13)....the Slow Sto is fine as is the MACD...the BBwidth maybe ok though it is not a strong breakout

Sentiment chart

P.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: note how closely the share price mirrors the CMF...well the CMF plummeted yesterday...will the share price follow as before??? RSI looks fine ADX DI+/- good good too but has that divergence topped out?

Ichimoku chart

P.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: pretty strong Ichi...nothing negative there....On Bal volume is so-so especially after that jump in price in the last few days...CCI looks fine.

***************************************************************************

Eldorado Gold Corp [eld.TO] $7.40

P&F chart

https://stockcharts.com:443/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ELD.TO,PLUADANCBO&pref=G

Comment: very bullish chart however it is quickly retesting a support band from $7.45 to $7.50 so we shall see if it falls further Note it is the second falter this month though a recent recovery. Resistance at $7.70 right now

Breakout chart

ELD.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: what looks to be the beginnings of a breakout seems to be a head fake...Slow Sto is great but MACD might be a lower high...the BBwidth is plumbing a lower point. More consolidation seems to be ahead.

Sentiment chart

ELD.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Comment: I don't really like this chart...the CMF looks topped out and falling, the RSI is flatish and the ADX looks iffy

Ichimoku chart

https://stockcharts.com:443/h-sc/ui?s=ELD.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76266205032

Comment: pretty weak Ichi.......On Bal volume is strong...CCI looks fine. some mixed messages

***************************************************************************


Conclusion

This process is a lot faster than it looks in these posts once you understand it. I would typically do this from start to finish in a couple of hours at most. But thinking how to present this in a logical way has been quite a journey.

these four companies are not bad...they make money but their charts show bull and bear tendencies

I would rank these companies from this analysis as follows

1. B2Gold Corp[BTO.TO]
2. Primero Gold Inc [P.TO]
3. Eldorado Gold Corp [ELD.TO]
4. New Gold Inc [NGD.TO]

So....my pretend order will be for B2Gold Corp. I use an intra day-chart to figure in my entry



the share price is falling as of yesterday but I see a "micro" support at $2.75....

I have allocated $100,000 of capital for this journal of which 1/5th ($20,000) will be allocated to the Mining sector...I won't use all of it on BTO...I will use roughly 50% of that allocation.

I will place a theoretical limit Buy order for: 4000 shares of BTO.TO @ 2.75/share

Consider the order entered at the Bell on Feb 13....if the share price dips to this level consider the transaction completed...if at the end of the day it has not reached this level I may readjust my bid

Hope you enjoyed this process...If there are questions ...fire away

My next purchase may be a base metal mining stock....if that makes sense...I won't go through as much detail as to the basic selection as you now know my approach.....time for some sleep now.

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  #8 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Where are your exits?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #9 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
Where are your exits?

I am a long term swing or hold player....I am not a day trader....I will hold the stock...(my entry choice was not the best but I am patient and may adjust it.)

the exit point will be weeks into the future probably...as long as the Price of gold rises this stock should do well.

EDIT @12:30 MST

it is 90 minutes before the close of the day, Gold has had a great day with it climbing over $1300 today

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC

I am going to readjust my buy-in point to $2.94 for the 4000 shares of BTO.TO

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  #10 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
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What do you do when the trade goes against you?

Do you have a computed uncle point where you take a loss?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
What do you do when the trade goes against you?

Do you have a computed uncle point where you take a loss?

I am very confident in my buy-in...I don't use a stop-loss on buys even if I lose 10% in short order. Remember I don't pick junk...I pick solid companies in a bullish trend so a minor setback usually corrects itself in a day or so.

I do use stop-loss orders when I believe a stock has run its course. I will not sell directly because the stock still might have something in the tank...so I set a stop-loss far enough back that I don't expect it to trigger on the next day....actually I set a Limit Stop-loss. Here I will set a range where I am willing to sell the stock....If it plummets through that range I won't automatically sell and I will then look at the situation as to whether I will sell outright or not....most sudden drops have a pullback so I won't be selling at the bottom.

I have the feeling that you are a day-trader and that requires a different skill set than I really use though. I hope you use TA to enter and exit your trades...not commenting on your trades (as I know nothing about your trading habits) but most day traders don't have much TA skills and they trade scared IMHO...they enter too late and exit too early.

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 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Underexposed View Post

I have the feeling that you are a day-trader and that requires a different skill set than I really use though. I hope you use TA to enter and exit your trades...not commenting on your trades (as I know nothing about your trading habits) but most day traders don't have much TA skills and they trade scared IMHO...they enter too late and exit too early.

Wrong assumption.
Like yourself I use fundamentals to come up with a watch list, then price action to find entries and exits. My trades may be held for a couple days,a couple weeks or in some cases years.

I don't use indicators other than trend lines. My feelings are that indicators just give a visually pleasing picture of what price has done, and if you pay attention to what price is doing you can be one step ahead of the traders who rely on indicators.

I haven't spent much time with mining or Oil&Gas because the fundamentals I look for don't show up. Miners for the most part plow all their profits back into new exploration. They have a terrible record for bringing projects in on budget.

Right now I'm building a position in TCM. Picked some up on Jan 14 on the breakout. Still holding.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Underexposed View Post
Hi,

My handle is "Underexposed" which makes the title a bit provocative I suppose but I have used this handle for several years now and some people may recognize me because of it.

This is a great site and primarily devoted to American stocks. While I do have a small American stock portfolio as Canadians have unfettered access to American stocks, the reverse is not true. Unless the Canadian company decides to open a listing on an American exchange, the company will be virtually unknown to American investors.

Canadian markets are very much influenced by commodities. For example, in the Oil and Gas and Mining sectors, the Canadian market leads the world in listings of new and established companies.

https://www.tmx.com/en/pdf/Mining_Sector_Sheet.pdf

https://www.tmx.com/en/pdf/OilGas_Sector_Profile.pdf

This especially shows itself in the new listings which can be important as if successful, they either can grow to be substantial companies over time or are takeover targets for larger companies. The NYSE may have a larger market value for their mining stocks but that is simply because they represent more mature, large companies. The junior stocks for O&G and Mining which have more growth potential are better represented in Canada and will be seen by Americans only if they search the OTCB which is the easiest route of entry for Canadian companies into the American market.

The my purpose in creating this journal is to show how I go about selection Canadian stock with side comments at times on how to avoid scams in the Canadian and American market in commodity stocks. I use a mixed approach of Fundamental analysis to identify potential good candidates for investment and the final selection, timing, follow-up is always done with Technical analysis.

I am basically a long term swing (3 to 8 weeks) and long term investor (two months to three years). I don't enter a trade with the idea that it will last x-number of weeks and out. The length of my hold depends on the performance of the stock.

It is my belief that, the longer the hold, the more important Fundamentals play in selecting stocks. I do not "day trade"...that depends on a special skill set to which Fundamental analysis is basically quite useless due to the short duration of the trade making fundamentals not important, as anything can happen in one or two days.

So for my style of trading uses Fundamentals (and I am still learning this type of analysis) picking likely candidates and Technical charting providing market timing and on-going monitoring.

I well set up a spreadsheet where I will allocate myself $100,000 worth of play money. It is not an overly complicated spreadsheet but for the newbie it might give you an idea of how to create one for themselves. I will divide that money into use in 5 sectors ($20,000 each) and select companies in each. I like a minimum of 1000 shares in stocks under $20/share and 500 shares for stocks in the $21-$40/share...I find I don't make money trading for lesser amounts of shares.

By this means we can monitor the good and bad trades I make and comment on them as time goes on. Please make constructive questions and comments as we go...then we can both learn.

My first sector will be Mining - Precious metals

Great to see a fellow Canadian making a contribution to futures.io (formerly BMT).

Looking forward to seeing your comments.

VV

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Well I had to chase this stock as it reversed tack at the beginning of the day and did not dip to $2.75 as I expected.

I don't panic and change my order immediately...I was greedy for a nickle off/share...so I ended paying a dime more per share than I had to....but this is not important to me because I feel this stock has a lot more legs. This is a solid company with solid revenues and as I found out, apparently well managed. So as long as the price of gold rises, well the price of BTO's shares will follow.

Futures Gold Chart Daily

Gold is on a bit of a breakout now and its next resistance is around $1360 as I see it...if it makes it there BTO will perform very well

the next resistance I see for BTO is a band from about $3.15 to $3.25...then a break to $3.30 then $3.60

https://stockcharts.com:443/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=bto.to,PWUADANCBO&pref=G

It is when a share price approaches a resistance that I consider (using those 4 charts I showed earlier) as to whether or not to continue to hold, add to my position or sell...the price can oscillate all it wants between support and resistance and I won't touch it....unless I have found a better place for the money, of course.

For the American traders following this thread....B2Gold Corp also exists in an American listing

B2Gold Corp [TSX:BTO]

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=ca%3abto&uf=8&type=4&size=4&sid=8110481&style=320&freq=7&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=18&rand=273588249&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=9,20&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=1024&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

B2Gold Corp [NYSE:BTG]

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=btg&uf=8&type=4&size=4&sid=3086531&style=320&freq=7&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=18&rand=1828886345&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=9,20&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=1024&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

As you can see the charts match except for the latter is in $US so exchange rates show the difference in price. Also look at the volume difference...the American stock has a volume of only about 2 million shares traded, where as on the Canadian TSX about 7 million shares traded. Yep...Canadian companies don't get the attention of most American investors...but they should in some cases.

What interested me in the American listing was there is an after-hours trade of about 0.5 million ....wow!...nice activity.

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Trader Y
Windsor, ON, Canada
 
 
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I'll contribute a case of Blue. I doubt anyone will argue that.

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deaddog View Post
Wrong assumption.
Like yourself I use fundamentals to come up with a watch list, then price action to find entries and exits. My trades may be held for a couple days,a couple weeks or in some cases years.

I don't use indicators other than trend lines. My feelings are that indicators just give a visually pleasing picture of what price has done, and if you pay attention to what price is doing you can be one step ahead of the traders who rely on indicators.

I haven't spent much time with mining or Oil&Gas because the fundamentals I look for don't show up. Miners for the most part plow all their profits back into new exploration. They have a terrible record for bringing projects in on budget.

Right now I'm building a position in TCM. Picked some up on Jan 14 on the breakout. Still holding.

Sorry for the wrong assumption. I do use indicators and they are not just pretty pictures to me. I went through a lot of detail to show the charts I use. Many people try and search for the "holy grail" indicator and it does not exist. I use a selection of non-competing indicators and draw a consensus from them....I have not found anyone else that does this...but I have spent almost a decade developing this idea...it works well for me.

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. [TSX:TCM] [NYSE:TC] an interesting company...you don't run into a molybdenum mine very often and a commercial one at that....I like that it is an American company that also lists in Canada....

It carries a LOT of debt...almost $1Billion total and its net revenue is pretty rocky from quarter to quarter

Molybdenum Prices and Molybdenum Price Charts - InvestmentMine

looking at these charts it looks like the price of the metal is recovering a bit this year. Since its major use is in steel production, perhaps this is an indication that this industry will make a comeback this year.

https://stockcharts.com:443/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=TCM.TO,PWUADANCBO&pref=G

you can see this recovery a bit in this chart but overall it has a long way to go before it turns a bullish trend IMHO

TCM.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this chart shows neutral right now...we are entering a Bollie tunnel...both the MACD and Slow Sto are flat while the BB's get tighter...this chart is not giving a clue yet as to direction...if the MACD and Slow Sto rise when the BBwidth rises...you will be happy....if the MACD and Slow Sto fall (neg slope) you will not be happy.

TCM.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

This is not a bullish chart I am afraid....neutrally bearish in my opinion................Good Luck! I might be wrong...you will know in the next week or so.

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Trader Y View Post
I'll contribute a case of Blue. I doubt anyone will argue that.

I am a Kokanee Gold man myself...but all suds are welcome here

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Trader Y
Windsor, ON, Canada
 
 
Posts: 58 since Dec 2010
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I remember the Kokanee days in highschool, great beer. I think it was mid 90's when it came to Ontario. Never could find the snowboarder who was suppose to be hidden in the emblem on the bottle.

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 deaddog 
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I remember the Kokanee days in highschool, great beer. I think it was mid 90's when it came to Ontario. Never could find the snowboarder who was suppose to be hidden in the emblem on the bottle.

It wasn't a snowboarder it was a Sasquatch. Brewed right in the Creston Valley in BC.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 deaddog 
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TCM: Lots of debt but that money was spent upgrading the mill at the BC Moly Mine and bring the Mt Milligan gold mine into production. I expect rising revenues as they work the bugs out and rising gold price can only help.

As far as the chart goes I see a sell off on volume to a new low then the volume dried up. No more sellers. Since then we have an uptrend with rising bottoms telling me that there is more demand than supply. Volume is drying up but buyers are stepping in with a little higher price each week.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I donít expect it to move a lot but I think I can move in and out if it trades in a range and pick up a few bucks.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
TCM: Lots of debt but that money was spent upgrading the mill at the BC Moly Mine and bring the Mt Milligan gold mine into production. I expect rising revenues as they work the bugs out and rising gold price can only help.

As far as the chart goes I see a sell off on volume to a new low then the volume dried up. No more sellers. Since then we have an uptrend with rising bottoms telling me that there is more demand than supply. Volume is drying up but buyers are stepping in with a little higher price each week.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I donít expect it to move a lot but I think I can move in and out if it trades in a range and pick up a few bucks.

nice chart...are you subscribed to Stockcharts.com?? I just use their free service which is awesome IMHO.

When I look at your chart I see you use 30 and 10 week SMA's....I would like to have seen the 10 week SMA above the 30 week one as a positive sign.

But as I said I think the future will be told in 5-7 business days and I wish you luck on it.

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I have found a decent Base Metal Mining Stock and will place a pretend order for

1500 shares of Lundin Mining Corporation [TSX:LUN} @ $5.34/share

I will discuss this stock in the morning

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 deaddog 
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nice chart...are you subscribed to Stockcharts.com?? I just use their free service which is awesome IMHO.

When I look at your chart I see you use 30 and 10 week SMA's....I would like to have seen the 10 week SMA above the 30 week one as a positive sign.

But as I said I think the future will be told in 5-7 business days and I wish you luck on it.

Yes I have a subscription. well worth the money for the type of trading I do.

By the time the 10 crosses the 30 I'll have missed the move.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 deaddog 
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I have found a decent Base Metal Mining Stock and will place a pretend order for

1500 shares of Lundin Mining Corporation [TSX:LUN} @ $5.34/share

I will discuss this stock in the morning

Going to play the breakout?

LUN.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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This will be my next acquisition for this play portfolio

I wanted to have 2 mining stocks for my $20,000 allocation for the mining sector. I wanted a base metal stock...not a precious metal stock. So I went through a similar procedure as described for B2Gold and I ended up with Lundin Mining Corp [TSX:LUN].

this is an extremely solid Copper, Lead, Zinc, Nickel mining stock. Base metal stocks have not been sterling in the last few years due to bad metal pricing. But this year it seems that there may be a turnaround here



I included the website page where I got the zinc charts. The other charts can be reached from there if you wish to check them out. Kitco.com is the gold standard for metal information IMHO

In all charts there has been decline in prices for these metals over the last 5 years but it seems stabilized and even a slight rise lately to me...at least in my imagination

Lundin Mining recently produced their production levels for these metals for 2013 and in every case the company has met or exceeded their targets.

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

from a financial perspective they have very low debt levels, stable operating revenue of almost $800Million/year , cost of revenue is stable and a positive net revenue for the last 5 years....5 years with not so stellar commodity prices.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

So this is a pretty solid base metal mining company



From a TA perspective I really like its P&F chart....there is that "Berlin Wall" of resistance that the share price is approaching now @ $5.43.... IF the share price rises above this 2 year resistance level we are looking at $6.40 as the next (probably weak resistance level. There is huge reward if this happens.

the upper right chart shows a quite bullish chart that might be in a slowdown....the Slo Sto is in excellent position, the MACD has flattened but not turned negative while the BBWidth is still rising (BB's expanding) I think it is just a resting period preparing for the challenge of the resistance.

the lower left chart is sort of a sentiment chart to me....see how the share price tracks the Bullish CMF, the RSI and ADX DI+/- look excellent.

The lower right Ichimoku chart looks great too...that thin blue line has re-emerged above the thin red line and pulling away...the clouds are far below....the on Bal Vol and CCI look great.


Last night I said I would enter an order at the bell for 1500 shares of Lundin Mining Corporation [TSX:LUN} @ $5.34/share

As happened to me in real life with a real broker/order, my competent imaginary broker noticed the stock had opened at $5.30/share and was able to fill my order at $5.31/share

So now I have complete purchasing my Mining Sector stocks....I will look at Oil and Gas as my next sector.

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I think the resistance will be challenged soon as explained in my last post....I think it is worth the risk and actually made a real purchase today this morning...not just the imaginary one.

this is becoming a fun exercise...giving me discipline by having to explain my reasoning.

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Finished my first week with 2 stocks selected and purchased with the $20,000 of play money I allocated this sector. I have prepared this summary included in the figures is $9.99/trade which is what I pay for my discount broker trades normally.



Working on 2 stocks for O&G industry...have a good weekend!!

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Here is a chart I looked at today and added some trending.




1. I pointed this out in an earlier post but it bears repeating, this was a resistance line that has held up for about a year. It is history now except perhaps as a support line if the price dips south again.

2. Next came a really narrow channel which lasted about 2 months....then the resistance was broken in mid-last week.

3. Not only did it break that resistance line but it has closed above the 200daySMA...something that also has not happened for over a year.

4. Looking at the indicators below shows I I believe is a substantial breakout in price. The Slow Sto has been looking good since the beginning of the year, MACD is having higher highs during the same time, all the time the BBwidth shows the Bollinger bands getting tighter and tighter. Now it has strongly developed a positive slope...signaling the current breakout. This is the first time since Aug 2013 that we have seen this.

We have seen plummets where the slow Sto and MACD have negative slopes before the rise in the BBwidth...this is a signal of a major decline as you see in Mid April and Mid June 2013.

5. The next target I have for the price of gold is now $1350/troy oz....if we pass that level (and I am not so naive that it will be a linear climb but there are supports from the 200day SMA and that mini channel resistance - now turned support to help it along) we will be well on our way to the next resistance level I see which is somewhere around $1410.

But that is fantasy right now...I always look at things from one one support/resistance range at a time.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Another week another round of stock purchases...this time in the O&G sector...a junior oil company - Manitok Energy Inc. [TSXV:Mei]

this company has had some personnel problems which caused its stock to dive at the end of last year but it seems to be well on its way to recovery now.

the FA looks fine with low quarterly debt and increasing operating revenue. It is an Alberta based Oil and Gas company with its activities in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. I am not a fan of companies that use FRACKING. I think this is an environmentally irresponsible way to make money...Manitok appears to be a conventional O&G company.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

From a TA perspective

here are the charts I use

MEI.V - Graphical P&F - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!0.05!!2!20]&pref=G

the above P&F chart shows the recovery of the share price over the last 2.5 months...Note the "low pole reversal" in the upper left P&F Pattern. This indicates from a P&F perspective that this stock is about to turn bullish. In Feb it has broken a resistance at $2.50 and then again at $2.60 which is now the support...the next resistance level is a band between $2.85 - $2.95.

MEI.V - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this above chart shows the strong recovery. The Slow Sto is nicely pegged into the so-called "overbought" range. I don't listen to those that say this is a sell sign...when it trades out of this range I might think about it, look at the beautiful MACD sloping even more positive.

The Bollies has 2 pinches so far and buy triggers were on Jan4 and Feb 11 as shown by the steep rise in the BBwidth.

Note that the share price has closed above the upper BB 3 days in a row....I expect a small pullback to about $2.65.

MEI.V - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

This is a very bullish chart. The share price seems to have a delay before following the CMF...which has been bullish for a month....the RSI has a nice increased slope and the ADX DI+/- is bullishly diverging...

MEI.V - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Another really bullish chart....in the ichimoku you see the share price has emerged a few days ago from a red cloud, the On Bal Volume is beauty and CCI is nice.

These charts have no trace of bear in any indicator,

Let's look at an intra-day chart for the last few days

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=ca%3amei&uf=8&type=4&size=4&sid=8110912&style=320&freq=7&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=3&rand=1369292695&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=3&maval=9,20&lf=1&lf2=2&lf3=4&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

looks like another good day shaping up tomorrow...I don't think it will drop to $2.65 as I suggested in the beginning of this post. Both the MACD and RSI are negative right now so I will try for $2.70

I will enter an order for 4000 shares of Manitok Energy - [TSXV:MEI] at $2.70/share to be entered at the begining of the trading day Tues Feb 18

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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It is 8:25MST right now and again the stock did not dip as expected

I will change my order to 4000shares to $2.75 for Manitok Energy - [TSXV:MEI]

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  #31 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Well, I got the price I wanted for MEI.V so it is in my portfolio now as you will see below.

LUN.TO looks to be failing the task of breaching the $5.43 resistance




I usually don't buy when approaching a resistance as of course the possibility failure to make the breach was there but the risk seemed fine to me...looking at those indicators shows a hint of them all going to negative slope and that might spell a downturn but it is not conclusive yet.

the Slow Sto is still over 80 and that augers well so far. The MACD looks as though it will have a Lower high but it is still a work in progress...the BBwidth has a reduced positive slow but it is still positive hence there is still hope

to protect myself I will place a Limit Stop Loss on LUN.TO of $5.12 to $5.10....

this is the current status of my trades and holdings so far as of Feb 19....I normally do this at the end of the week for comparison sake though.



I am currently looking for another O&G company

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It seems there is a rebound of sorts happening in the natural gas industry you can see this in the following chart

Futures Natural Gas Chart Weekly

I thought I would add a decent energy company with growth and dividend growth.

One such company looks to be Bonavista Energy Corporation [TSX:BNP]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

as you can see from the snapshot summary the stock has performed well since about Nov/2013 and pays a decent monthly dividend with an annual dividend of 5.5%

One criteria for selection of a dividend paying stock is that it has a continuous record of dividend payouts

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

As you can see...even through the crash of 2008-2009 this stock continued to pay a monthly dividend...albeit that the dividend was reduced but that is excusable given the plummet in Natural Gas prices in past years...with prices in nat gas rising we could see eventual rising dividends as well. Buying this stock in this week will get the first dividend payout next month.

Here is my TA charts



There is nothing bearish in any of the charts.

In the P&F chart you see an interesting flag formation...currently using converging resistance and support borders of the triangle you have Support at about $14.90 and Resistance at about $15.40

The Upper right chart shows a nice positive diagonal drift in the share price...without there being a real breakout yet...though the BBwidth looks favourable for a sudden positive jump in slope...the Slow Sto looks great while the MACD is drifting sideways.

if you looked at that fundamental page there is a tight bid/ask range of 15.26/15.27

I will enter an BUY order for the start of tomorrow's trading day for

Bonavista Energy Corporation [TSX:BNP] for 500 shares @ $15.27/share

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Well, I could have gotten this at $15.20 as that is what it opened at but that was a low volume buy that lasted less than 10 minutes so I got it at my price of $15.27...and I am happy with that as the stock continued to rise and now sits at $15.36 and a month from now I can look forward to a dividend of about $0.07 x 500 = $35.00

Had a close call with LUN.V which opened at $5.16 only 4 cents above my stop-loss point but it has rallied to about $5.20 so hopefully it keeps going

Now I have another sector to investigate....Lumber prices are climbing....I will take a look and see what I can find there.

So far looks like it will be a good day today though MEI.V has taken a dip in early trading.,,,not serious though.

Good trading to you....

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First of ....Why Lumber??



You can see the nice rise in Lumber prices since 2009...there seems to be a resistance at about 370....with a huge resistance just short of 400...there is a channel now with support around 350 and resistance around 370.

Can someone comment on the chart of small/large traders and hedgers....it seems the prices of lumber are best when Larger traders rise and hedgers fall...why would this be???

Why interest in Western Forest Products Inc. [TSX:WEF]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Well it does have a quarterly dividend...but that is just bonus money.....you would buy this for the growth...look at the snapshot chart on that page.

From a FA point of view

Balance Sheet: shows no short term quarterly debt and about $88Million long term debt

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

The Income statement: shows pretty solid Operating Revenue of $240Million and Net revenue of between $14-35Million per quarter...yep that $88million debt looks pretty serviceable

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information



What a series of BULLISH CHARTS...look at the P&F Chart....see how it had a HUGE resistance at $2.40...well that has finally been breached so NOW it is a HUGE support...the next serious resistance I think is around $3.40

As I said earlier there is not a Bear bone in those charts....maybe the CMF is falling a bit but that is easily cancelled by other bullish indicator.

It is 12:12MST right now....about 2 hours left before markets close

currently the Bid is $2.60 and the Ask is $2.61 with the last price at $2.60

For the sake of a penny, I will enter a Limit Buy order for $4000 shares at $2.61

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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well I had a good day today...I will post a summary of the end-of-trading-week numbers so as to see the state of the union.

BTO.TO gained $0.19 today
LUN.TO gained $0.01 "
MEI.V lost $0.08 "
BNP.TO gained $0.15 over my purchase price
WEF.TO stayed even til the end of the day from when I bought in at $2.61

Yep...nice day

I don't think I will look for more in the lumber industry...I think I will look in the Financial Sector for a Canadian bank first then another financial type stock next.

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this is the summary of my position as of Feb 21/2014



There are some successes and some losers in this portfolio but the proof to the pudding is that I am moving forward with positive overall returns. In 2 weeks we have gained about 0.5% so far and that is what I look for. I would be naive to expect everything to be a success from the get-go.

I am not worried about Linden Mining...I have a stop loss to protect myself and I could have called the Stop-loss today but it was for a minute or less touching $5.12 on low volume so I will pretend my order did not trip and perhaps it will recover...if not the stop-loss will trip on Monday...no loss...I'll give it a chance.

Manitok Energy is in consolidation now...The problem with that stock pick is that I bought it late in it's run



I should have got it at (#1) arrow in the first week of January or at the pinch on the first week of Feb but I had not started this trading log then.

See how the price was above the upper Bollie for several days (#2)....well that is not normal to be that way for more than 3-5 days without a pullback into the BB envelop .... Now it has fallen to a support at $2.60 (#3)....stock prices in consolidation tend to drift back to its 20daySMA (#4)

I will wait to see what happens at the next BB pinch...though there still is a hope the current one is not over as the BBwidth is not neative slope yet and the slow sto is still over 80...I don't expect it to plummet

The good news is B2Gold....nice gain of almost $1000 so far

BTO.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this stock is still bullish...no reason to sell at this point...as long as the price of Gold continues to inch upward this stock should do fine.

I am half way to spending my seed money...I am happy with these picks so far.

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Basically it comes from my expectations of each company

Manitock Energy [TSXV:MEI] is coming through a reorganization of its upper echelon...and Oil prices have been high since the start of the year.

MEI.V - Graphical P&F - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!.05!!2!20]&pref=G

You can see from this chart that after a long climb the stock faltered at a resistance at $2.85 and fell to a support at $2.60....this is the end of that 3 month run and now we are into consolidation as I showed in the previous post. If you look at that chart again the Slow Sto is still great, the MACD is showing higher highs and the BBwidth may fall showing a tightening of the Bollies. During that tightening the price will drift to the 20daySMA...

It is not definite that the run is truly over yet....this may be a rest...since while the Slow Sto and MACD are definitely in a small negative slope the BBwidth has not changed to negative YET...you need all 3 to be negative to say the run is over...but I fully expect it to be over and the price should move sideways as the 20daySMA climbs to meet it.

Lund Mining [TSX:Lun] is slightly different. First of all, the base metals that are this mine's commodity are not in a bullish price rise....they look to be getting better but not in a bullish way.

LUN.TO - Graphical P&F - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!0.1!!2!20]&pref=G

in this chart the pattern of this company's price is to challenge the resistance at $5.40 - $5.50 then fall back quite a way....in this case it would be to its support at $4.80 - $4.90 or worse.

So why have I picked this stock in the first place??? Because the reward of breaching that resistance is so great...passing a resistance that has been so solid for a few years would certainly be bullish move.

With the stop-loss placed where it is....I am giving the stock another chance at breaching that resistance while protecting myself if it does not.

I use Limit Stop-loss orders every time I am willing to sell a stock. Say I have a 30-50% gain...I want to preserve as much of that gain as possible. However, if the stock is destined for higher gains...I want that gain too....so I will establish a limit stop-loss point about 5% behind a price level and then if the price of the stock advances then I will adjust that stop loss level upward as well. At some point the price will fall and trigger a sale and I will have new money to invest in something else. By doing it this way, I make the sale without any emotional involvement in pulling the trigger.

Why do I use a Limit Stop-loss and not a plain old Stop-loss? Let us say I have a stock at $7.00

In a Stop-loss order (set at $6.70) a margin order to sell the stock at the best price is generated if the stock plummets past this point. The "best price" could be anything....perhaps $5.00. My experience is that drastic price falls are usually followed by a pullback...that "best price" is not necessarily the best price after a plummet.

In a Limit Stop-loss (set at $6.65 - $6.70) I set a range of values that I will sell at. If the stock falls slowly into this range then all my shares will be sold at an acceptable price to me....if it plummets through this range my stock will not sell...I will then have an opportunity to investigate the cause of the drop. I may decide the drop is real and then sell down at the bottom....or I may wait for the pullback then sell....but that is my decision...not something decided for me.

See you Monday

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I have been on this site now for 2 weeks and it is a pleasant chnge from what I am used to, It is nice to present a coherent thought without battling trolls as on other sites I have tried.

I know this is an American site by and large and largely a day trading bunch from the sounds of it and of course as you can see from these posts of mine I am neither. It would be nice if there could be other posters bringing up companies that they are interested in and we could discuss various aspects of the company. As you can see I am not married to just charting (though I believe I have a good suite of charts and use traditional indicators in somewhat non-traditional ways) I am also into doing Fundamental DD on a company to try to explain some of the surges/plummets seen in the charts and anticipate them in the future.

Many in the TA/FA camps adopt an us versus them attitude and I think this is myopic. I believe the more angles that a problem can be viewed, the more chances at deciding the solution. I have learned a lot through this approach and have some experience with this with my brother.

At first he was very anti-charting. He prefered to dig into the news...serious news not fluff media pumps. He has a better grasp of politics of governments/companies and sectors than I do...I paid little attention to this analysis figuring that everything is reflected the current price movement. Well that is true...but I found that his insight was pretty good for the future and I could then look for confirming evidence of his feelings in my charts.

After a while he came to appreciate my charting approach and our weekly 2 hour skype meetings were very interesting...He would dig out stocks that I would never look out and told me to "cast my bones" over them...hahaha....this synergy between the two of us has been quite fruitful.

I would hope that something like that could happen here...many eyes...many approaches with a common goal.

Eventually word of mouth will attract more Canadian traders....Even American traders...I welcome you too if you want a different opinion on an American company not trading in Canada. It is a little more trouble with European stocks as I don't have all my charting tools available to me....but again we all learn something.

Good trading...hope to hear from you...tomorrow I will probably decide on my Canadian bank...Toronto Dominion Band [TSX:TD], Royal Bank of Canada [TSX:RY] and Bank of Montreal [TSX:BMO] and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce [TSX:CM] are in the running so far...all good stocks and available on the NYSE...we shall see how I can arrive at a decision,,,

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 deaddog 
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A good start to your journal.
I haven't contrbuted any thing because I didn't want to hijack your journal by adding a different point of view. It looks like you have a good method that works for you.

I'm looking forward to you completing your porfolio and observing how you manage your trades.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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I like your contributions to date and I appreciate you not wanting to hijack my journal.

I suppose there is a fine line between a hijack and discussion.


Quoting 
It looks like you have a good method that works for you.

Yes I do have a method, I developed it over 20 years of playing around with charts. Then when I "thought" I knew what I was doing I began trading for real a little over 12 years ago....then I retired with investment income was my sole income....still is!!!

I thought this was easy money...then came the crash of 2008-2009 and I lost 45% of my holdings....what a lesson!!!

My approach has seriously changed since those days...my current suite of charts (there are a couple I have not showed yet.) It used to be that I looked only at charts...good for short swings....not so good for longer swings/holds.
I put money into a lot of crap back then...thinking like many chartists do that Fundamentals are useless. Well this is true for daytraders...anything can happen in a couple of days....but longer holds require stable companies so a basic knowledge of company fundamentals is essential to pick long term winners (this is still a work in progress for me but I am getting better.

I do not mind intelligent questioning of my approach.........I only ask that if you disagree and have an alternative approach that it is described....by this we all learn....and if we still disagree or I don't think it fits in with what I do....then we agree to disagree and life moves on.

You will find that I am not afraid to make a prediction of short term movements (1-10 days) based on my charting techniques. My batting average is pretty good IMHO and it is the only way for you to see that what I am doing makes sense.

you will recall that on Feb 13 we were talking about TCM and I made this comment


Quoting 
But as I said I think the future will be told in 5-7 business days and I wish you luck on it.

well that was a 8 business days ago and you see this chart now



Well this stock improved while in consolidation ... see how it tracks the 20day SMA during this time....in this case it literally tracked the SMA more often it oscillates above and below.

Now the BB's are tight and it looks like a breakout is in progress...but is it??? That 200 day SMA looks like it is a resistance...also it is above the upper bollie.

The Slow Sto looks only OK...the MACD has barely moved....usually these 2 indices lead a breakout as it did on Jan 13....so I would be wary if this was the only chart I used that this "breakout" might be a head fake ...not for all time necessarily but this time maybe.

so I look at more charts for evidence





Looking at these charts I see

the CMF is still bearish but improving: Mildly Bearish
the RSI(30) is showing a sign of improving but is basically flat: Neutral
The ADX DI+/- is definitely showing bullish but one bullish move does not establish a trend: Mildly Bullish
in the next chart I see
the Ichimoku has improved considerably since my last comment: bullish
the OnBal Volume has an uptick but is still pretty flat: neutral
The CCI is bullish and looking fine

So cancelling out opposites I end up with a feeling that this is mildly bullish.

So my conclusion would be:

It looks good for a bullish run overall but I would expect a pullback from the current position early next week to within the Bollie envelope....

finally if you look at this final P&F chart

https://stockcharts.com:443/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=TCM.TO,PWUADANCBO&pref=G

Here you see the price HAS risen to a resistance...

So while this is looking more bullish...I would expect a pullback but could attack that resistance again ...if it breaks $3.30...then it would be a clear bullish run....it would be a watch if I did not own...a hold if I did own this stock

We shall see how it unfolds this week

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 deaddog 
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I look at charts differently. Firstly I rely on price action. I have slowly evolved away from using any indicators. In my view indicators are manipulation of price and volume data to give a visually pleasing view of what price has done in the past. Price has to move first before an indicator moves, so I figured I might as well just watch price.

Here is how I look at TCM;
Price had been in a steady decline since September. On Dec. 19 price made a new low but with a bullish candlestick on above average volume.
On Dec 31 price made a higher low and on Jan. 3rd a higher swing high.
Now Iím watching.
On Jan 9 there was a higher swing low and I am planning to initiate a position.
The plan was to enter if price trades above the Jan 9 high.
It did that on Jan. 14 with a violent gap up. I got my fill at 2.75.
Since then I have had no reason to sell as the price has been making higher lows.
Friday there was a couple attempts to break 3.30; both failed but buyers supported the price above 3.10.
I agree there is resistance at the3.30 area and also around 3.60
Weíll see what Monday brings.

TCM.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Hi DD


Quoting 
In my view indicators are manipulation of price and volume data to give a visually pleasing view of what price has done in the past. Price has to move first before an indicator moves, so I figured I might as well just watch price.

Like I said, there ain't just one way to skin this cat. The fact that I developed my method around indicators does not mean some other way is not equally as valid.

So we shall see how things play out. One thing is...that we see resistances and probably supports alike. I agree that $3.60ish is a secondary resistance...I personally see $3.25 as being the stronger one of the two. and there are several other mini-resistances before this stock is really free...that would happen if the stock breaches the wall of China at $4.45

It will be an interesting watch for me.

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 deaddog 
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Yes I do have a method, I developed it over 20 years of playing around with charts. Then when I "thought" I knew what I was doing I began trading for real a little over 12 years ago....then I retired with investment income was my sole income....still is!!!

I thought this was easy money...then came the crash of 2008-2009 and I lost 45% of my holdings....what a lesson!!!

Sounds like we have a bit in common. I've been at it a bit longer (probably made more mistakes), It was the crash of 2000/2001 that woke me up just after I retired; I didn't sell my Nortel because I didn't want to pay capital gains tax. When I did sell I didn't have many capitl gains to worry about. That was my Aha moment. It came down to focusing on protecting my capital rather than making money. Can't make any money when you run out of capital.

I was mainly out of the market in 2008 relying on TA. Smart or lucky I don't know but I still have my capital and have been increasing it since then.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Well I did a performance comparison similar to what I did in Post #6 of this journal

the results showed 4 banks that showed the best potential contenders. Actually any of the big five (ScotiaBank was eliminated here) are pretty solid performers. I look at what happened during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 for guidance.

There was not one Canadian bank or financial institution that had to shut down...no matter how big or how small they all survived. You cannot say that for American or European financial institutions...with their bogus derivative paper many fell or were seriously dealt a blow.

Every Canadian bank had a similar story but I will use the TD Bank to illustrate this

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

First of all, note the quick recovery following the crash of 2008-2009...in less than a year the stock rose back to its previous share price....Hover your cursor over the "D" in the chart....you will find the dividends INCREASING through the crisis period...not declining and they continue to increase with time. Finally note the "S" at the end...hover over that and you will find there was a 2:1 FORWARD split in the stocks so while this stock may appear to be an under performer versus other Canadian bank stocks ...up to a little while ago, before the split the stock was worth about $100/share.

Compare that stock to the American bank - Bank of America [NYSE:BAC]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

this bank lost almost 90% of its value and 5 years later it still has not recovered to more than 1/2 its previous value. Hover over the "D" and you find a dividend payout of $0.64/quarter before the crash and 5 years later it is a measly $0.01/quarter...a shadow of its former self.

If I were to look at an American bank it would probably be Wells Fargo [NYSE:WFC] It has shown a better recover than BAC but only recently has it regained its former dividend rate

SO....my four contenders for a Canadian Bank Stock are: ( I'll show a link to their quarterly financials)

1. Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Short term debt: Nil ............................ Long term debt: about $8 Billion
Net Income: About $1.6 Billion

2. Royal Bank of Canada [TSX:RY]

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Short term debt: $47 Billion ................ Long term debt: about $8 Billion
Net Income: About $2.0 Billion

3. Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce [TSX:CM]

[http://web.tmxmoney.com/financials.php?qm_page=17784&qm_symbol=CM[/URL]

Short term debt: $13 Billion* ................ Long term debt: about $5.8 Billion*
Net Income: About $0.9 Billion

*Short term debt is decreasing but Long term debt is increasing

4. Bank of Montreal [TSX:BMO]

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Short term debt: NIL ................ Long term debt: about $4.4 Billion
Net Income: About $1.0 Billion


I like stocks with less debt...Both BMO and TD have no short term debt and about the same Long term debt. CM has lots of debt...RY has the most income but the highest debt


On this basis I will limit my TA to the Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD] and the Bank of Montreal [TSX:BMO]

I will do that in my next post.

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ok it is 9:00am MST and the markets have been been open for 2 hours now.

LUN.TO was tested AGAIN with low volume for less than a minute at $5.12 but I will choose to ignore such a weak test...it almost seems to be a support level.

Gold is fired up again being up to $1336/oz so I expect a decent day today.

I have finished my evaluation of bank stocks and will present the TA in the next post but I will state that as of 9:10MST

I will place a limit order to buy 400 shares of Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD] at $49.47/share

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Well there was no problem adding TD stock to my portfolio on this site (actually I did it for real too.)

It was not an easy decision between Bank of Montreal [BMO.TO] and Toronto Dominion Bank [TD.TO]. Both of these stocks are pretty good buys...but I must select one only so this is how I did it:

P&F charts

I use these charts for an overall look at the price performance....they are pretty old school but I find that they show macro resistance/support levels very well. here is a side by side comparision of the two companies



I give advantage to TD here...a clear resistance at $50.00 with rising columns which defines a bullish ascending triangle. We are very close to the apex...there is a chance to break downward from here but statistically this is a bullish formation. On the other hand BOM is bearish with a negative resistance diagonal line.... you will see in the upper left side of the chart for BMO shows a "Low Pole Reversal" alert this is because of the recent rise and is moderately bullish but it is an alert...to be taken with a grain of salt...that sloping resistance bugs me.

My trigger chart

I use this chart for buying and selling. I am not really using this properly right now but I want to fill my fantasy portfolio. NORMALLY I like to make decisions when the Bollies are tight and as you can see that is not so right now.



Both of these charts are similar in that they both fell hard in mid-January and recovered strong in February....this severely influenced the shape of the Bollies...they are not tightening but going in a huge tunnel.

NOTE the minor resistance that did not show up in the P&F chart for BMO...I think that will potentially cause that rise for the past month to fail at that point.....TD shows the resistance carrying over from the P&F chart at $50. The difference for me is that the P&F chart shows bull for TD and Bear for BMO...so I think this is stronger for BMO.

Does this mean it is over for both banks....no...I think that their respective resistances will be hard to pass and BMO in particular will retreat and go sideways for a while as the price consolidation continues. TD on the other hand may retreat a little then burst the resistance.

Not that all major movements in both companies take place when the BBwidth is about 3 for both stocks....the BBwidth is much to high right now for both...so we won't see a major movement in the near future IMHO.

My Sentiment Chart

When deciding whether there is enough interest to move forward or back I use this stock chart....especially when approaching a resistance or support.



the Chaikin Money Flow certainly favours BMO...I like putting this indicator behind the share price (dotted line).....it makes the relationship much clearer. Aside that the TD bank CMF is mired in the mud for much of the last 6 months it is kinda moving contrary during this time. the BMO seems to track the CMF with a lag of a few months...on this indicator it is bullish for BMO and certainly bearish for TD

The RSI and ADX DI/- are basically acting the same Mildly bullish

The Ichimoku chart

I think this means "at one glance" or something close to that. It gives an excellent snapshot of the state of the union. The clouds portend the future with the green clouds being a little better than red ones....but they are like molasses when the price is inside them (the borders up and down are resistance and supports.



The BMO chart is certainly much more choppy...crossing and recrossing the clouds. You can see how in the TD chart the borders of the clouds act as supports and I like the cloud formation in the TD chart...green and constantly rising.

The OnBal Vol is certainly in BMO's favour but the TD is not bad either and the CCI is almost identical in both charts.

Conclusion

It was not a clear cut choice though other than the CMF and OnBal Vol the TD charts were better for me.

Both are solid banks and well do well but I fell back on one more Fundamental piece of information.

Canadian banks are heavily criticized for being relatively small internationally. I don't think they can merge within Canada so they look for access to other markets.

26% of TD bank's income comes from the USA...they have a solid foothold buying many smaller banks in the USA since 2008. Bank of Montreal has very little presence in the USA other than in Chicago, I think.

So the TA and stronger expansion outside Canada leas me to choose Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD} for my financial institution in this portfolio.

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Well that trade has not turned out as planned....I purchased it at $2.75 and it is sliding hard to about $2.45 so far

Again in an effort to fill this portfolio quickly I purchased at the top of a run not the beginning. HOWEVER, I still like the company fundamentally.

Oil Futures are taking a bit of a beating and any time you are dealing with a commodity stock....you have to pay attention to its commodity

Futures Crude Oil Chart Hourly

I rarely sell a stock outright whether it is for gain or loss....the reason is that every time I do that the stock climbs ... sometimes I think someone should shadow my sales and buy instead

I don't like the emotion involved when really pulling the trigger....So I set a Limit Stock loss order...this gives the stock a chance for the stock to recover but takes the emotion out of bailing out too early.

You can see that I have done this already with LUN.TO if you look at my pending orders table back in POST #31
So far the price of LUN.TO has touched the level I set for selling twice for less than a minute each time on low volume so I am choosing to ignore these events as triggering my stop loss....who knows they may have triggered in real life...but MY Thread/MY RULES so I don't think they would have.

Well I will do the same for Manitok Energy [MEI.V]



Yes, in looking back I broke several of my "rules" in buying this....

1. I purchased it in what I thought was the middle of a run (turned out to be the end of a run).
2. I ignored the fact that the stock price was above the upper bollie for 5 successive days so it was due for a pullback...but what a pullback {sigh}

now it is in consolidation and as per usual it has fallen back to its 20day moving average, where it should oscillate around it until the BBwidth falls to 8 to 10. I can see a fairly good support at $2.40...hopefully it will hold.

I don't want to set my Limit stop Loss there as I am pretty sure it will be challenged and a spike will trip the order.

So I will set a LIMIT STOP LOSS with an upper value of $2.35 and a lower value of $2.30

Of course a day trade would not think of taking such a loss....but I am thinking long term and this is a decent company...so I will take this risk.

As a side comment...say I had bought this stock at $2.30 on about Jan 8....well $2.80 would have given me a $0.50 or 20% profit in 6 months...In truth I probably would not have sold it there basically because I usually hold for longer times.....BUT IF I wanted to do a swing trade on this then I would have looked at the Slow Sto...see how it leads a fall, then the MACD reversing on Feb 20...and the BBwidth looking like it wanted to reverse...then I would have set a limit stop Loss and probably got out for about $2.70 or so.

But in getting into this trade I am looking for a long term trade...not a swing trade.

So we shall see if my Stop loss plans for MEI work out...if the stock continues its fall I am out of there but I like the company as I said so it would go to a watch list for the future.

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well the price on this stock fell to $2.36 only one cent above my Stop-Loss upper level.

Tomorrow will be interesting to see if it will rebound....it closed at $2.38 so I have 3 cents above my stop-loss at the close...tomorrow will be interesting.

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Well I have almost completed my initial portfolio. I have $30,000 left to spend and will purchase 2 more stocks with it, $15,000 each.

I went through my normal procedure and think I have found a good one.

Nordion Inc. [TSX:NDN]

here is the Balance Sheet where it shows a very stable long and short term debt.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Income Statement show the last 2 quarters making a positive net revenue after a money losing begining to the year

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

The forecast for 2014 is encouraging and probably is what is spurring the current share price movement.

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Technical Analysis

Point & Figure Analysis




This is an interesting chart....You can see it is approaching a huge resistance right now at $11.10. This is a major resistance and passing this one (if you look at a coarse chart) would set a strong support at $11.10 and then we would be looking at pre-2008 prices with a resistance line at $12.50. The current support is around $10.50.



I really like this chart...I am not trying to buy at the top of a run....here we are jumping in at the start of a new run. The Slow Sto has been pegged over 80 for months. The MACD has fallen but looks ready to turn and the BBWidth right where one would expect to see a major price event to happen and it is showing the tiniest of upticks.

The price traveled in a tight channel since the beginning of the year and now has broken above the upper resistance just now.



I like this chart too....the CMF overlay is solidly green and the RSI and ADX DI+/- look to be mildly bullish in that it appears to be turning a positive slope



There is nothing bearish in any parts of the above chart

Conclusion

I am putting a limit buy order for 1500 shares @ $10.90 for the opening bell for Feb 27

I believe this chart will seriously challenge the $11.10 resistance and passing it would be a good thing

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well I filled my order in the first few mins of the trading day at $10.90....I could have got Nordion at $10.80 as it turned out but It will recover,,,,only one more stock to fill my portfolio,,,not sure what sector yet though

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 deaddog 
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I am putting a limit buy order for 1500 shares @ $10.90 for the opening bell for Feb 27

Is this a stop limit order or are you willing to take a lower price at the open? Does the price have to trade at 10.90 to trigger your order?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
Is this a stop limit order or are you willing to take a lower price at the open? Does the price have to trade at 10.90 to trigger your order?

It is a standard limit order...I have tried buy-on-stop orders in the past...this is when I believe that a stock will take off if-and-only-if a stock exceeds a resistance point. This is the only way you can set a a buy order above the asking price. I always wondered why someone would do that...I could understand this if you wanted to protect yourself if you shorted a stock....but then I thought of this application and it made sense to me to do that.

I have not been too successful using a Buy-on-stop order though. I would only do it on stocks where I did not feel confident they would pass the resistance point....and sure enough they did not so and the order timed out.

If I am pretty sure from my charts that it will pass that resistance then I will simply set a Limit order at the price I am prepared to buy at (usually half way between the last Bid/Ask).

the order, since I made it before trading hours, is not entered until the bell and I have found that TDWaterhouse will grab the stock at a lower price at the bell if it is lower than my limit order. I suppose there is risk there as I guess the stock could have plummeted and I would be getting in on a slippery slope. But I am fairly confident that I did not make such a mistake in reading my charts so I like the extra few cents of a lower price.

If I was nervous about it falling I would wait an hour or so before entering my order to confirm all is well. There is risk there too as during that time the stock could have taken off and I would be chasing it as the price climbed. By placing the order early like that then I can get in on the ride early..

There is risk any way you do it.

I have been following TCM and it seems my suspicions that that breakout was a head fake proved right.



I see it doing a negative drift to the 20day SMA over the next 5 or so days...the MACD hardly moved a muscle upward, the BBwidth has plateaued early and the Slow Sto, which often leads a trend, is trending bear. That $3.30 resistance is a tough old bird

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 deaddog 
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I have been following TCM and it seems my suspicions that that breakout was a head fake proved right.


I see it doing a negative drift to the 20day SMA over the next 5 or so days...the MACD hardly moved a muscle upward, the BBwidth has plateaued early and the Slow Sto, which often leads a trend, is trending bear. That $3.30 resistance is a tough old bird

You are probably right.
The trend is still intact,at least so far. I'm hanging in there until I see a close below the prior swing low.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
You are probably right.
The trend is still intact,at least so far. I'm hanging in there until I see a close below the prior swing low.

At this point I am not saying it is a sell...rather it is a Watch if you don't hold and a Hold if you do. The rewards are there if you pass $3.30 but it seems to be a tough resistance to pass. It keeps regrouping though to try again....fingers crossed for you.

Well I seem to have timed the purchase of TD Bank [TSX:TD] right...It has just cracked the $50 resistance today on the feet of a good quarterly financial report

TD.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

LUN.TO and MEI.V are behaving now after I put limit-stop-loss orders on them so all is not lost there ... at least so far.

At the end of today's trading I will update my numbers....it has not been a good week (mainly due to the fall of MEI.V) but my picks seem to be settling in.

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Each week after the trading for the Friday I will post the status of this thread account



As you can see overall we are still in the black though this past week was not too productive. The boat anchor in this group is Manitok Energy [TSXV:MEI]....You will note that I have a limit stop-loss on this stock and if you read previos posts we can within an eyelash of tripping this trigger twice...but it is now in the process of recovery...at least so far it is.

I have a limit stop-loss on another stock Linden Mining [TSX:LUN] and the same thing happened as with MEI...came very close to tripping the sale of the stock but it has recovered a bit.

I like using this method of potentially selling a stock....it takes the emotion out of the sale. I cannot count the number of times where I have made an outright sale only to see it climb higher after that sale.....this way I have a firm line-in-the-sand but if the share price wants to rise...I will it go and if I have a serious intent of selling I will keep the Limit Stop-loss, moving it up as the share price rises, on until it finally sells.

Doing it this way reduces the emotion of selling almost completely as well it give the stock a chance to make more profit (or reduce losses)...

Have a good week end....really cold here -30c (about -28f) so won't be doing much outside this weekend.

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I decided on adding one more stock to this portfolio....into the Industrial sector

After looking for profitable company under $20/ share narrowed me down to two companies...

ADF Group Inc. [TSX: DRX] - A structural steel company with a fabrication plant in Quebec

Questor Technology Inc. [TSXV:QST] - an incinerator manufacturer for the oil industry promarily

This was extremely close to decide...both companies have decent financial fundamentals and the charts look fine to me.

I chose ADF Group Inc. [TSX: DRX] basically because I did not want another Oilfield related stock...but it was a reluctant decision...I will keep an eye on both of them for my real portfolio.

Fundamentals

Balance Sheet - quite low debt of about $3 million which was reduced from a year ago

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Income Statement - Operating for EVERY quarter is increasing over the year. The Net income increases as well and in the last 6 months that company has returned to profitability.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Technical analysis



Starting at the upper Left and going clockwise you first see the Point and Figure chart. I like the look of this chart. Again I would normally not buy at this point, the resistance is a $3.50 and I believe this will be attacked soon...this is an important resistance to pass as that resistance will turn into a pretty good support.

Resistance: $3.50 Support: $3.10- $3.15

next is the "trigger" chart... I like the current position of the price right now....it is right at the 20daySMA rising off the 50 day SMA...the Bollies are pretty tight as you can see in the BBwidth which is falling to a level where past breakouts have occured...I believe there will be a breakout in 5 business days. Both the Slow Sto and MACD has stopped their decline and absolutely flat.

Next chart is the Ichimoku chart...the OnBal Volume is excellent...the CCI is rising again...the Ichimoku looks fine...you can see the upper edge of the green cloud is $3.10...confirming the earlier support...it is a bit iffy but this is the only real uncomfortable chart...worth a watch but I am willing to take a chance

the final chart is my sentiment chart....I like the rising CMF...the RSI and ADX DI+/- are less bullish but bullish all the same.

Conclusion:

I will place a limit order for 4000 shares of DRX.TO at $3.24 which is midway before the last Bid/ask on Friday

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well I got my DRX.to at $3.11/share which is lower than the bid I made but it continued to fall to $3.01 so we shall see what happens there.

Also my Limit-Stop-Loss did finally trip so I sold my LUN.TO 1500 shares @ $5.12/share

Kind of a interesting day with the crisis in the Ukraine...Gold should do well....Oil and Nat is tough over there but how that will be affected here remains to be seen

I thought I filled my portfolio but still have about $8000 to spend after losing Lun.TO

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I know it's a demo protfolio but to be realistic wouldn't you have sold at the open at 5.10?
So far this morning the stock hasn't traded at 5.12.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
I know it's a demo protfolio but to be realistic wouldn't you have sold at the open at 5.10?
So far this morning the stock hasn't traded at 5.12.

true enough...I did just a quick check before I wrote that and saw a high of $5.12 and just assumed it dropped through the zone and not rose up from a lower value....the limit stop range would have prevented the sale at lower values than $5.10 and tripped at $5.10 on the way up....yep...I made 2 cents less/share

nice catch...I looked at your TCM and it has taken a hit too....not a good day for base metals I fear.

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I have not done much in the last few days to this portfolio.

The stop losses I set last week finally tripped for MEI.V and LUN.TO...I still think they are decent companies and in fact they rebounded from the stop-loss trip points but I set those levels and I will look for other stocks to replace them

I thought an update on the state of the portfolio was in order....I took my spreadsheet and carved it up into manageable sections so you can see it all.







the second graphic seems better without expanding it

So...as you can see last week was not so hot but this week looks fine and overall we are still making money. this snapshot was taken one hour into the trading session on today March 7 (I forgot to change the date in the first chart

So I have got $19,612.10 to spend...I am toying with adding more shares to BTO.TO as it is performing well. I don't particularly want to add another gold mine per se. I am thinking of adding a gold royalty stock...Sandstrom Gold Corp [TSX:SSL; NYSE:SAND] as an alternative....or a combination of both.

Still mulling this over for now

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Do you want to discuss your risk control? I notice a difference in the amount you are willing to risk per position.

As a percentage of your capital you risked 0.34% with LUN and 1.62% with MEI
As a percentage of you investment you risked 4.2% (LUN) compared to 14.7% (MEI)

Do you take into consideration either percent of capital at risk or percent of investment at risk when entering a position or setting your stop?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post

Do you take into consideration either percent of capital at risk or percent of investment at risk when entering a position or setting your stop?

I am not anal about % of capital or % of investment.

As far as initial investment goes...I like to have a minimum of 500 shares of a stock worth $20-$40/share...I would never buy less than that number as I don't believe I am making enough money...I will tolerate between a 5-10% loss if the stock starts to dive...this is from the get go...once the stock makes money I will be looser on this requirement or tighter...it depends on how I feel about a down turn.

With a stock in the $10-$20 range, I will purchase 1000 - 1500 shares initially
with a stock in the $1-$9 range, I will purchase 2000 - 5000 shares initially
with a stock in the $0.30 to $1.00 I will purchase 5000 to 20000 shares (yes I do have a couple of low pennies...this is one that I initially purchased at $0.17...several years ago I bought it at $0.20 and sold it at $1.20...that was when it was a mining property in Northern Manitoba then with potential (copper/zinc)...now it is almost a mine into production...I have high hopes for this stock VMS.V - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com ...)

As time goes on and with a successful stock I will add shares as time and spare cash permit.

When I decide to sell a stock...a winner or loser I will take a look at where a support level is and set the stop-loss
Just below that support...I always use stop-losses rather than outright sale of a stock to give it a chance to reverse its trend....If I still do not like the future of the stock I will raise the stop-loss as the stock price rises...there is no formula for this ...it all depends on my feeling at the time...

I have found this way is the best way to trigger sales...it takes a lot of emotion out of the final trigger.

When I sell something worth say over $25,000...I will review my portfolio and sprinkle at least 2/3 of this money among winners in my existing portfolio increasing their share volume. The remaining third I will probably put into a new company.

I am a great believer in increasing my share volume total.

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 deaddog 
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Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to watching you manage this portfolio.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Another comment on Risk Management from my point of view. I think of risk management as the first stage of an investment. I usually pick pretty solid companies...I am confident in making decent choices when starting a run. It is not infallible as you have seen but if I lose between 5-10% after short time following the stock purchase then I will use stop-loss limits to potentially leave a declining situation....But once I show a decent profit, I relax those rules a bit and allow a significant pullback as long as it does not put me into a loss position....it is sort of like playing with the "house money"....If for example a stock has risen and become profitable but encounters a stiff resistance but fails and pulls back then as long as it is still positive I will let it do so and may even add to the holding if I view the risk ok for it to attempt this resistance again....or if I decide that it is time to protect a profit I will set a stop-loss limit below that support line...I may trip it and get a reduced profit but as long as it is a profit I am moving forward.

I just looked at the portfolio this morning and saw that Nordion Inc. [NDN.TO] had a nice 6% jump today....woohoo...
it had an excellent quarterly financial report

NDN.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

My goal for profit on most stocks is at least 30%...I shoot for that number...I don't always reach this amount but it is my normal target...or beyond.

the P&F chart is looking fine

NDN.TO - Graphical P&F - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!0.25!!2!20]&pref=G

As you can see it has burst through a resistance I found at $11.10 in my POST #49 in this journal

I had to use a coarser chart as the price rose off the finer chart and I could not see what was ahead. the next resistance will be at $12.50 and that will be huge!!! if this stock can breach this then we are well onto our goal of at least 30%.

So that is my target now $12.50 and $11.10 is my new support...No stop loss for this company at this point...no point as the news was solid and real.

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Well it was an exciting week....I have lost a couple of losers added a winner and overall recovered from the loss from the previous week.



Since starting about a month ago we are up about 0.61%...we were up a lot more at the beginning of this day as ADF Group surged on news of a good quarterly report to over $12.00 briefly...it burst through a resistance at $11.10 as noted in a previous post but it settled down to $11.20 by the end of the trading day.

NDN.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Am I upset at not latching onto this surge?? No, as I am not an intra-day trader. If I had sold the stock at $12.00 it could have kept on going and I would have to chase it to get back in....losing money in the process. As it stands the $11.10 which was a resistance now is a decent Support level...which was tested and held.

If you look at that chart you will see that the price as it crested $12 was a mile above the upper Bollie...the pullback was natural and expected. One oddity in an otherwise bullish move is the decline of the Slow Sto . But this may be due to that rapid rise then decline of the share price today...The MACD and BBwidth are normal.

NDN.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this is my sentiment chart and all looks fine....maybe the CMF is mildly bearish so it bears watching


I have another worry in Western Forest Products [TSX:WEF]



this has all the look of a real decline...the latest run resulted in about a 100% gain. I can find no bad news so I imagine there is profit taking at work....See how the Stow Sto has been in decline for a while now as well as the MACD but the BBwidth has shown a sole uptick...not enough to really signal a harsh downturn....but then It is not encouraging.

Now you will see I have drawn a support line at about $2.32 or so....this would make a nice place to stop the fall if the move is simply profit-taking.

Looking at the P&F chart you can see this is a huge support now



So that resistance/support line that I see in the Sharpchart also exists in the P&F chart which dates from years ago.

So this suggests to me that $2.30 will be decent support for the stock

As a result I will set a limit-stop-loss for WEF.TO for all the shares at $2.23 to $2.26

This would incur a bit more of a loss if this stock continues to fall but I am willing to take that risk as I believe this to be a pretty decent stock and no bad news...so it must be profit taking after a 100% gain that is driving this correction.

I still have to find a place for the $19k that I have available...I will make that decision over the weekend.

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Underexposed; like I said I donít want to hijack your journal or become a troll. I do like to challenge conventional wisdom. Just let me know, PM if youíd like and Iíll cease and desist.


Quoting 
....it is sort of like playing with the "house money"....

There is no house money. Itís your money. How does losing money you have invested differ from losing money that you are ahead? You look at the total in your account at the end of each day or each week. In reality thatís your money.


Quoting 
If I had sold the stock at $12.00 it could have kept on going and I would have to chase it to get back in....losing money in the process.

Sounds to me that emotions are ruling your investment decisions. The Fear of missing a move is greater than the Fear of losing a few dollars.

Why donít you consider that you could have sold at $12 and now you would have to take $11.20 as losing money? If you had sold at $12 and it had kept going up you would have made money and lost opportunity. You can buy stuff with money; you have trouble buying stuff with opportunity.



Quoting 
If I lose between 5-10% after short time following the stock purchase then I will use stop-loss limits to potentially leave a declining situation

My goal for profit on most stocks is at least 30%...I shoot for that number...I don't always reach this amount but it is my normal target...or beyond.

Better than a 1 to 3 risk/reward ratio. You can afford to lose better than Ĺ your trades and still make a good return.



Quoting 
When I sell something worth say over $25,000...I will review my portfolio and sprinkle at least 2/3 of this money among winners in my existing portfolio increasing their share volume.

Do you use the same risk reward parameters when you add to existing positions? That is do you move your target price up?


Quoting 
I am not anal about % of capital or % of investment.

As far as initial investment goes...I like to have a minimum of 500 shares of a stock worth $20-$40/share...I would never buy less than that number as I don't believe I am making enough money...I will tolerate between a 5-10% loss if the stock starts to dive...this is from the get go...once the stock makes money I will be looser on this requirement or tighter...it depends on how I feel about a down turn.

I guess I am anal about % of capital. I hate to risk more than 1% of my capital on any trade. That doesnít mean that I will only buy $1000 worth of a stock with a 100k portfolio; it means that I will attempt to keep my loss below $1000 on any trade.

If the distance between my entry price and my stop is 50 cents then I will open the trade with 2000 shares ($1000 divided by 50 cents). If the difference is $5 then Iíll only buy 200 shares.

The number or shares I buy is determined by the risk. My minimum risk to reward is 1 to 2.5 although I prefer 1 to 3.

I could care less about percent return on each individual trade. I look to make either 3% of capital or lose 1%. On a 100K account with a 1 to 2.5 risk/reward and winning about 40% of the trades, I only have to make a few trades each week to make a decent return.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
Underexposed; like I said I donít want to hijack your journal or become a troll. I do like to challenge conventional wisdom. Just let me know, PM if youíd like and Iíll cease and desist.

You are not hijacking my journal...at least by this point anyway. I don't mind your questions



deaddog View Post
There is no house money. Itís your money. How does losing money you have invested differ from losing money that you are ahead? You look at the total in your account at the end of each day or each week. In reality thatís your money.

It is not my money at all until I sell the stock...once a stock is showing a positive return, I am not risking my capital...I am risking future profits as I see it. So like a casino gambler I suppose, who sets his initial poke aside once he starts winning he won't risk his initial poke for that run. In stocks I feel the same...I will bail out of an investment that does not go well risking about 10% loss in the process....but once the investment return goes the way I had hoped then it becomes a series of steps...I will re-evaluate the continuing of an investment run as we approach each resistance or falling back to a support. No, it is not my money until I end the investment run.



deaddog View Post
Sounds to me that emotions are ruling your investment decisions. The Fear of missing a move is greater than the Fear of losing a few dollars.

Tell me an investor that does not let emotion influence his decisions...are you cold-hearted in your decisions??? With respect I doubt that. Selling always was the most difficult part of my plans...I have found that using limit stop-losses as I have shown the best way FOR ME to reduce the emotion of the sale...and I am comfortable with that.

As far as the situation with Nordion Inc.....It would have been impossible for me to sell that stock at $12.00...I AM NOT an INTRA-DAY Trader...I can go days without looking at my stocks...I am doing it daily right now because of setting up this phantom portfolio. I basically update the state of the union of my portfolio every weekend and it is the overall gain/loss that concerns me. Having said that though, when a stock approaches the level of risk concern as Western Forest Products is doing right now...then I will investigate and take the action that I have indicated.


deaddog View Post
Why donít you consider that you could have sold at $12 and now you would have to take $11.20 as losing money? If you had sold at $12 and it had kept going up you would have made money and lost opportunity. You can buy stuff with money; you have trouble buying stuff with opportunity.

To repeat...I don't follow a stock on an hourly basis so the opportunity is missed....if I wished to take it. In this case the stock surged on an overreaction to a good quarterly financial report...it has fallen back but I believe the price will rise again in a more rational fashion.....I don't worry about small gains like this that I have no knowledge about. I have not lost those gains as of yet...they will return if that financial report was true...and reading it I believe it to be.



deaddog View Post
Do you use the same risk reward parameters when you add to existing positions? That is do you move your target price up?

MY risk assessments are based on how I see the resistance/support stairway of a chart and the gaps between those levels...I believe I have been quite successful at doing this in the past.


deaddog View Post

I guess I am anal about % of capital. I hate to risk more than 1% of my capital on any trade. That doesnít mean that I will only buy $1000 worth of a stock with a 100k portfolio; it means that I will attempt to keep my loss below $1000 on any trade.

If the distance between my entry price and my stop is 50 cents then I will open the trade with 2000 shares ($1000 divided by 50 cents). If the difference is $5 then Iíll only buy 200 shares.

The number or shares I buy is determined by the risk. My minimum risk to reward is 1 to 2.5 although I prefer 1 to 3.

I could care less about percent return on each individual trade. I look to make either 3% of capital or lose 1%. On a 100K account with a 1 to 2.5 risk/reward and winning about 40% of the trades, I only have to make a few trades each week to make a decent return.

Well, it seems you are not a Long term trader ...from what you say you sound more like a short term swing trader. We have a different set of priorities, you and I.

$100,000 is a very small amount of money...I have been retired for over 10 years with investments in stocks being my sole income...a good year for me is 15-20% gain ... an ok year is 5-7%. On a $100,000 poke that is not a living wage obviously....but it will serve to demonstrate that I can make a decent gain over a year...After about one month I am up 0.6% overall so far...so far I am on tap for an OK year....I expect to do better as time goes on.

Many traders show little respect to longer term traders...I hope to show that we make money too.

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 deaddog 
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It is not my money at all until I sell the stock...once a stock is showing a positive return, I am not risking my capital...I am risking future profits as I see it. So like a casino gambler I suppose, who sets his initial poke aside once he starts winning he won't risk his initial poke for that run. In stocks I feel the same...I will bail out of an investment that does not go well risking about 10% loss in the process....but once the investment return goes the way I had hoped then it becomes a series of steps...I will re-evaluate the continuing of an investment run as we approach each resistance or falling back to a support. No, it is not my money until I end the investment run.

How about when you have an unrealized loss. Do you consider it a loss?

For what itís worth, I track my portfolio by its total value much similar to your system.


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Tell me an investor that does not let emotion influence his decisions...are you cold-hearted in your decisions??? With respect I doubt that.

Why would you doubt it? I attempt to be as cold hearted as I can be. I have a plan and I follow it religiously. I have stops that I honour with out question and have my targets set with limit orders. I have no buyer or seller remorse. If I sell and the position moves further in my favour itís lost opportunity, but as they say opportunities are like trains there will be another along soon.


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As far as the situation with Nordion Inc.....It would have been impossible for me to sell that stock at $12.00...I AM NOT an INTRA-DAY Trader...I can go days without looking at my stocks...I am doing it daily right now because of setting up this phantom portfolio. I basically update the state of the union of my portfolio every weekend and it is the overall gain/loss that concerns me. Having said that though, when a stock approaches the level of risk concern as Western Forest Products is doing right now...then I will investigate and take the action that I have indicated.

I agree. The stock gapped up then filled the gap. The volume shows lots of sellers at that level. If who ever was unloading is finished, price will more than likely continue in the direction of the trend.

I donít think there is anything wrong with your method. It seems well thought out and more importantly itís something you are comfortable with.


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Well, it seems you are not a Long term trader ...from what you say you sound more like a short term swing trader. We have a different set of priorities, you and I.

My Goal: To follow my trading plan.
Number 1 priority: preserve my capital.
I have both long and short term and dividend portfolios. I have different accounts at different Brokers for each style. The long term account is slowly growing my capital, the dividend portfolio gives me a pretty steady dividend income and the short term swing trading account allows me to afford my hobbies and spend the winter in Arizona.


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$100,000 is a very small amount of money...I have been retired for over 10 years with investments in stocks being my sole income...a good year for me is 15-20% gain ... an ok year is 5-7%. On a $100,000 poke that is not a living wage obviously....but it will serve to demonstrate that I can make a decent gain over a year...After about one month I am up 0.6% overall so far...so far I am on tap for an OK year....I expect to do better as time goes on.

15 -20% is realistic and a respectable return. You should do better on a good year and with you cutting losses quickly you wonít be hurt too much in a bad year


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Many traders show little respect to longer term traders...I hope to show that we make money too.

I have the utmost respect for any trader who has a trading plan and the discipline to follow it.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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I don’t think there is anything wrong with your method. It seems well thought out and more importantly it’s something you are comfortable with.

My Goal: To follow my trading plan.
Number 1 priority: preserve my capital.
I have both long and short term and dividend portfolios. I have different accounts at different Brokers for each style. The long term account is slowly growing my capital, the dividend portfolio gives me a pretty steady dividend income and the short term swing trading account allows me to afford my hobbies and spend the winter in Arizona.

15 -20% is realistic and a respectable return. You should do better on a good year and with you cutting losses quickly you won’t be hurt too much in a bad year

I have the utmost respect for any trader who has a trading plan and the discipline to follow it.

those returns that I quote are AFTER I subtract my living expenses which come 100% from the stock market so if you look at GROSS returns the percentages are much higher.

My approach has changed with time....2008-2009 was a real eye-opener for me....I had no clue what to do so I basically did nothing but hunker down and rode out the storm, not selling any stock at all, taking paper losses but not real ones.

I had prepared for such an event by salting away about 5% of my previous gains into TD Money Market and I calculated I could live 3 years on this money If I had to....thankfully it lasted only 1 year. That strategy allowed me to survive intact and my stocks rebounded in 2009 recovering about 1/3 of my losses back then. But that was 5 years ago....I pay more attention to things now and have spent time learning fundamentals....the little I have learned have helped me make better stock choices.


deaddog View Post
Why would you doubt it? I attempt to be as cold hearted as I can be. I have a plan and I follow it religiously.

Well I congratulate you on this...you are one of the few

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 deaddog 
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I pay more attention to things now and have spent time learning fundamentals....the little I have learned have helped me make better stock choices.

Here is a quote from Mark Cuban on Fundaments.
Quoting 
Stocks donít go up because companies do well or do poorly. Stocks go up and down depending on supply and demand. If a stock is marketed well enough to create more demand from buyers than there are sellers, the stock will go up. What about fundamentals? Fundamentals is a word invented by sellers to find buyers.

Price/earnings ratios, price/sales, the present value of future cash flows, pick one. Fundamentals are merely metrics created to help stockbrokers sell stocks, and to give the buyers reassurance when buying stocks. Even the way profits are calculated is manipulated to give confidence to buyers.


"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
Here is a quote from Mark Cuban on Fundaments.

It is obvious that Mr. Cuban is very successful...Warren Buffet is successful too...there are many successful people in the investment communities with philosophies to sell.

Would I blindly follow any one of these ....nopes. In my UNSHAKEABLE opinion, fundamentals of a company and that goes a lot further than look at a few ratios, is more important the longer your investment vision. For a day trader, fundamentals are basically useless..but even there they would be wise to check out the companies behavior when it comes time for the company to make a quarterly report as many of the jumps or falls in share price happen then.

Even the numbers and ratios can be useful IF YOU DON'T LOOK AT INDIVIDUAL NUMBERS. If you look at a companies operating revenue and it is marching higher with each quarter...that is much better than a company with falling operating revenues....If the Operating Revenues rise but Net Revenue falls then the question comes as to why are costs increasing. Checking out a dividend paying stock...a review of its payouts to see if they are continuous and rising...especially through a crisis like 2008-2009 is important. There is a reason why the TD BANK is doing so much better than the Bank of America and it has nothing to do with technical analysis.

All of these things are pretty well useless if you are looking at less than a month investment...but IMHO they are very important if you are looking at a stock that you might consider holding for a longer term.

The viewing of individual TA indicators makes about the same amount of sense. Many think a RSI over 70 is a sell signal....but this is not true in my opinion....it depends on whether it is trending positive into that zone or negative out of it. If trending into or flatlined within that zone the stock is quite bullish....to be trending out of this zone it is only mildly bearish....it could easily turn around and re-enter that zone....similar with a stock with RSI entering the <30 zone...I think it is laughable when some say this is a buy signal...it could stay in that mud for months and if it starts to trend out of that zone it is only Mildly bullish.....that is why I don't depend on on or two indicators....I evaluate each individually and take a consensus and I cancel out opposites...what is left is a decent view of its current situation

I don't like this US versus Them attitude. There are investors that make a ton of money using both analysis systems. The trick is to borrow the good stuff and fit it into your particular investment strategy.

TA is very important to me but I have made some horrible choices in the past on the basis of TA...my batting average is much better employing both methods.....Just my opinion...Quoting other traders will not change my opinion. I have never found any book describing my brand of TA....worked it out myself and it is still a work in progress in fine tuning...I have studied charting for over 25 years.

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 deaddog 
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I don't like this US versus Them attitude. There are investors that make a ton of money using both analysis systems. The trick is to borrow the good stuff and fit it into your particular investment strategy.

I agree with you.
I never buy a stock based on fundamentals because I know from experience the games accountants can play to manipulate the numbers they are required to report. That being said I prefer to have stocks with stellar fundamentals in my watch list. When I buy a stock based on TA I want to be able to find a buyer when it comes time to exit. Good Fundies make that easier.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Ok ... in addition to the limit stop-loss that I have placed on Western Forest Products as mentioned earlier.

I will place a bid for a limit buy within the first hour of trading for 3000 shares of Kelso Technologies Inc. [TSXV:KLS]

I like this stock for several reasons...they manufacture hardware that makes railroad oil tankers safer which is quite timely considering the raft of railroad explosions in the last 4 months. They have recently opened a manufacturing facility in Texas...again quite timely.

They have no debt and increasing Operating revenue with each quarter...however costs have risen so that while they have been in the black on the last 3 reported quarters...they have had expenses with respect to a new valve design and probably the building of that new facility. The increased use of railroad tankers to move oil product and the age of the tankers makes this potentially a nice long term hold.

TA



the P&F chart shows that there is a pretty solid resistance at between $3.50 - $3.60 and the share price is knocking at that door.

the next chart to the right is my "trigger" chart and you can see the Slow Sto has lead the way with the MACD following...The BBwidth is at a nice level where breakouts usually occur for this stock and has flatlined

Moving down a chart show the share price to be a bit contrary to the CFM decline in past month and now this indicator is moving out of the mud it looks mildly bullish...the RSI has a slight positive slope over the past month or so and the ADX DI+/- show indecision with the "chaining" of values though right now it shows mildly bullish with the green above the red

The last chart show the Ichimoku....I like how it fought its way through the green cloud...the Onbal Vol and CCI look favourable as well.

All these indicators are a bit muted in their bullishness, however I like the business and it seems to be timely to me...

So I will place a limit bid for 3000 shares of KLS.V @ $3.47/share within the first hour of trading...or less if I can catch a small dip, we shall see.

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Here is the status of the account since yesterday March 11



As you can see the Stop Loss for Western Forest products tripped and it was sold and at the same time the limit Bid for Kelso Industries was successful. It was pretty rough on Monday but by the end of Tuesday we recovered small losses and so far we have a slight gain for the week.

We still have cash on hand to the tune of $18,000 available so I want to place this in another gold related stock. That would be Sandstrom Gold [TSX:SSL; NYSE:SAND] this company is not a gold mine per se, it is a gold mine financing company. They invest in mines that are in their final stages of development before being a producing mine. Instead of interest the company places the money for a share of the mine's revenue in the form of physical gold or a royalty stream from the life of the mine.



As you can see it has had a jump today and is cresting a resistance at $6.50...



the breakout chart shows this to be just in the starting stages



It looks to be topping out now

I will enter a limit bid of $6.50/share for 2500 shares of SSL.TO ..... effective 8:30 MST

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Well about 30 mins after I made the last post the share price dipped below $6.50 then by the end of the day the price rose to $6.85 to close there...Finally some good timing....still 2 more trading days before week's end so I should have good numbers for the end of the week.

All but about a little less than $2,000 remains un-invested I won't touch that money right now.

We are all green so far....may it continue.

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 deaddog 
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Rolling the dice with TC or TCM.to
Doubled my position today at 2.40 $US; a close below 2.30 will see me gone.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
Rolling the dice with TC or TCM.to
Doubled my position today at 2.40 $US; a close below 2.30 will see me gone.

why would you Double your position on a stock that is declining share price stock???

I think you are trying to catch a falling knife.

I had a great day today on the strength of big gains in SSL.TO, BTO.TO, BNP.TO

well produce a summary of the state-of-the-union tomorrow after the close

I wish you luck on your TC

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this is not a turn around sign to me

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 deaddog 
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why would you Double your position on a stock that is declining share price stock???

I think you are trying to catch a falling knife.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this is not a turn around sign to me

Near the bottom of the trading range.

Was in the plan.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Hmmmm here is your post on how you acquired the stock....the highlights are my own for emphasis


deaddog View Post
Here is how I look at TCM;
Price had been in a steady decline since September. On Dec. 19 price made a new low but with a bullish candlestick on above average volume.
On Dec 31 price made a higher low and on Jan. 3rd a higher swing high.
Now Iím watching.
On Jan 9 there was a higher swing low and I am planning to initiate a position.
The plan was to enter if price trades above the Jan 9 high.
It did that on Jan. 14 with a violent gap up. I got my fill at 2.75.
Since then I have had no reason to sell as the price has been making higher lows.
Friday there was a couple attempts to break 3.30; both failed but buyers supported the price above 3.10.
I agree there is resistance at the3.30 area and also around 3.60
Weíll see what Monday brings.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

well since that time, the stock has failed in attacking those resistances and now is on the slide


deaddog
Near the bottom of the trading range.

Was in the plan.

You and I have a different view of the TA on this stock as I see the halt as nothing more than a rest before sliding further....I certainly would not double my holding on that basis...I suppose you are averaging down.

As you can see from my approach I accept the loss and move on....anyways I hope this works for you but this is not my style.

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Gold is on the move



there is two relevant resistance/support channels as can be seen in the above chart - one horizontal and the other diagonal.

We passed through a rather significant resistance at about 1350 recently...this opens the door to a rise to $1420. The diagonal resistance ie pretty bullish as the spot price of gold keeps bouncing up against the resistance since late Dec.



It is a little easier to see the horizontal resistance/support in the above P&F chart. We have just crashed through the 1360 resistance of a week ago and have turned it into a rather strong support now...Now we can look forward to a rise to $1420....in rising to this point most gold related stocks will benefit and rise as well....If they don not rise then you have proof positive that this is a dud stock.

you can see the world will really open up for gold if it passes the next resistance of $1420....it would then be targeting a huge resistance between $1560 - 1570.



this chart is the one I use for predicting breakouts. For a breakout to be real and predictable the Slow Sto and MACD must have positive slopes to their respective values then the BBwidth must reverse slope to positive in a sharp way.

You can see that in circle #1...now compare it to circle #2...see the MACD and Slow Sto rise but when the BBwidth reverses it is very muted and often means a head fake is happening.

Circle #3 shows another good breakout on Feb 10....the price of gold has been in consolidation until recently as it nudged up against the $1360 resistance.

Is the recent rise above the resistance (now support) a breakout? Well the Slow Sto and MACD are bullish but the BBwidth has not shown it is yet so a headfake possibility exists.



that is why I look to confirmation from other charts. This is a sentiment chart for me....there is nothing bearish about this chart.

the Spot price seems to follow the CMF overlay with a nice reversal following the lowest dive in the CMF....the change in slope of the RSI is dramatic as well . The ADX DI+/- had a bearish cross in early September than now this has changed into a bullish cross at the end of January and are diverging more and more each day.



finally the ICHIMOKU chart could not be more bullish. The red/blue thin lines shown by the arrows are growing further and further apart...the CCI and OnBal volume are also bullish

Conclusion

This all confirms to me that we can confidently look to the spot price of gold rising to about $1420. I cannot predict further than that....beware of those that say that Gold is going to $2000, $3000 or higher per oz troy in 6 months...no one can see that far ahead and they usually have another agenda.

Gold Mines and financial companies dealing with gold mines (Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Sanstrom Gold) should do well .... should you buy many many gold mining stocks??? I would not....they would all do well so I would pick one and ride with it (one mine that is).

I would be cautious about Mine Exploration companies...they sell dreams....they may claim they have X oz of gold in the ground...It is very difficult to verify this and if the mine is in the future (it takes 5 - 10 years to come to production) who knows what the price of gold will be.

With gold mines you have production data in financial data, operating and net revenues, costs...etc verifiable fundamental data....there are many scams that crawl out of the woodwork in good time so watch out.

Good trading!!

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well after weeks of mediocrity finally get a good result



Nice to get a shot in the arm like this....I am not that naive that I expect this every week though it would be nice

I will be pretty well standing pat this next week. I am going on a trip to California to see my son/daughter-in-law/one year old grandson. I will check in on things once in a while but won't do much.

Good Trading

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 deaddog 
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As you can see from my approach I accept the loss and move on....anyways I hope this works for you but this is not my style.

Let me say this is one of my rare fundamental plays.
Mt. Milligan gold mine is still in the start-up stage and will add to the earnings, especially if gold goes higher.

I donít usually double down but since the stock gapped up so much above my buy point I only took a small position. (Fear of missing a move). Actually for this stock that is part of my trading plan. Take a small position if the stock gaps up and add on retracement or add if the stock fills the gap.

The risk is still under 1% of my capital. As a percentage of dollars invested I stand to lose about 12%.

Although Iím rolling the dice the risk is under control.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Let me say this is one of my rare fundamental plays. Mt. Milligan gold mine is still in the start-up stage and will add to the earnings, especially if gold goes higher.

Hmmm....I don't like your fundamental analysis of Thompson Creek Metals if you are basing the share price on solely the Mt. Milligan gold/copper mine.

I will cast my bones on this property and how it fits into the rest of the Thompson Creek Metals mining properties.

I am taking this information from the LATEST financial news and this information is only a month old.

https://www.thompsoncreekmetals.com/i/pdf/nr/2014-02-20_TCM_NR.pdf


Quoting 
The Company also announced financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2013, prepared
in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles (“US GAAP”). All dollar amounts are
in United States (“US”) dollars unless otherwise indicated.

2013 Highlights:

• Consolidated revenues for 2013 were $434.4 million compared to $401.4 million in 2012. Copper and gold sales contributed $14.3 million of additional revenue in 2013. Molybdenum sales volumes were 36.5million pounds in 2013 compared to 28.7 million pounds in 2012. Our average realized sales price for molybdenum in 2013 was $10.97 per pound compared to $13.48 per pound in 2012.

This bullet point has a ton of information and I understand why you are interested in the Mt. Milligan gold mine as it is basically in your back yard...being near Prince George

look at where this company is making its money...IT IS NOT FROM GOLD/COPPER this represents but a small fraction of its total revenues.

$14.3 million / $434.4 million * 100 = 3.29% of total revenues

This company has 3 producing mines: Thompson Creek Mine (100% Molybdenum play), EndaKo Mine (100% Molybdenum play) and Mt. Milligan Mine ( Copper/Gold play we will determine the ratio of each metal later hopefully as it certainly seems there is more copper than gold in the ore a reserve of 2.1 Billion lbs of copper versus 6.0 million of ounces of gold...pretty high reserves albeit.

Let's look at its quarterly reports (I find annual comparisons misleading)

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information



this income statement shows a rather erratic Net Income on a quarterly basis and the last quarter is not particularly encouraging .

I looked up the relative income versus the three metals that were mined in 2013.

this comes from page 15 of that report

Copper : $8.7 million
Gold: $5.6 million
Molybdenum : $400.1 million


from this I see that Gold represents only only about 1.3% of their business...it is only operating at 60% capacity right now and not due to reach capacity until 2015.

Conclusions:

the Mt. Milligan Mine appears to be more of a copper mine than a gold mine. Gold certainly represents a significant amount of the revenue for that mine but Thompson Creek Metals still makes most of its revenue from the mining and sale of Molybdenum and that price has been in decline for a long time...in fact if you read that report on pages 2/3 of the report shows that they are mothballing expansion of phase 7 of their Thompson Creek Mine due to low Molybdenum prices...which says to me they expect lower prices for Molybdenum in the future.

To expect that the mining of gold which represents only 1.3% of the mine's revenue currently to compensate for a decline of the Molybdenum revenues is optimistic for sure.

I think you are deluding yourself to think that the gold in the Mt. Milligan Mine is going to turn around the fortunes of TCM in the short term.

Anyways, my reading of the chart for TCM is not the same as yourself...to me it has only had a rest in the past 3 days and more downside is to be expected.

I see nothing fundamentally or technically to suggest otherwise....I hope I am wrong but that is what I see and why I see it.

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 deaddog 
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Couple things you didn't pick up on.

Mount Milligan just opened for operations. Way over budget but is working out the kinks and hasn't really added to earnings.

Endako Mine just completed a major upgrade, New mill I believe. Again they are having normal strart up problems.

These usually iron themselves out in 6 months to a year.

Thomson Creek Mine has suspended production.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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deaddog View Post
Couple things you didn't pick up on.

Mount Milligan just opened for operations. Way over budget but is working out the kinks and hasn't really added to earnings.

Endako Mine just completed a major upgrade, New mill I believe. Again they are having normal strart up problems.

These usually iron themselves out in 6 months to a year.

Thomson Creek Mine has suspended production.

Yes...all of that is true....the operations at Mount Milligan are only at 60% capacity and not expected to be at full capacity til 2015. The gold makes up only 1/3 of the output of the mine with copper being the main mineral. this company is known as one of the biggest suppliers of Molybdenum in North America if not the world....but it is shutting down aspects of their mining of this metal.

these are not good fundamentals for the present...not in my opinion. The TA reflects this as well. You have a declining price for their major mining commodity, declining production of that commodity...the new mining addition is more of a copper play than a gold play....copper is as common as hen's teeth with large mines elsewhere in mothballs waiting for a rise in that commodity price.

The gold represents less than 5% of its revenue at present and you expect that will turn this company around today??? It won't be into full production until about next year...who knows where the price of gold be at that time...the world problems could be on the mend and the price of gold could fall again.

I can see you standing pat waiting for a reversal in share price direction...but doubling down on such information and TA does not make sense to me....sorry

But I wish you luck...

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 deaddog 
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You're probably right. Like I said rolling the dice.
The risk is under control so I'm not risking more than I had planned on this position.
Every so often I get lucky.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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yeah, I understand and I cross fingers for you. It seems that this company is under a transition...I note they have other gold properties in the works but these are years away from even a commercial evaluation it seems.

If I were doing anything..it would be to add it to my watchlist....but hey, it has a chance to turn around...a small one IMHO be a chance nonetheless .

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this is my last major post for the next 7 days as I am on a trip to the USA starting tomorrow.

As you can see I have settled into a nice suite of stocks for a long term swing. I will show a chart for each and comment on my feelings on each one.



this is doing well as a gold mining company...believe it or not this chart is in consolidation though it is still rising in price. It still looks rather bullish with the Slow Sto above 80...the MACD has a slight neg showing thouh not serious...the BBwidth has fallen almost to a level where breakouts occur (10-15)...With Gold continuing to rise I have no plans to sell this stock.



This is my gold financer stock. the price is above the upper bollie so I expect a mild pullback until it is within Bollie envelope...another stock to leave alone as long as gold is rising. NOTE the beginnings of a bullish 50daysma cross of the 200daysma



This is my only Oil & Gas stock...it is entering a critical period as the Bollies are pretty tight...it looks fine so far for a positive breakout so far .... the slow sto (which usually leads bad news is hovering around 80, the MACD is declining but not severely...the BBwidth is nearing the point where a breakout will occur (4-5)...the price itself has a narrow range, tracking the 20daysma. Also since we purchased this stock before Feb 26, we received our first dividend payment of $35.00 on 500 shares...not much but it adds up eventually the longer you keep it.



this stock is resting...in order to see a bearish decline the Slow Sto, MACD AND BBwidth must all be negative and that is not the case.



I have great hopes for KLS.V as a manufacturer of improvements to oil tanker railway cars...the stock is nicely tracking the upper bollie....no worries so far.

this is my limit as far as embedded charts go.... my only concern left is ADF Group Inc. DRX.TO

DRX.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this is looking bearish....there is a support level at $2.90....so I will set a limit Stop-loss at $2.80 - 2.85 on DRX.TO...this will protect me from a dramatic loss. I still like the company for reasons I stated when I purchased it...but it looks like the times are not right....hopefully the support will hold.

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 deaddog 
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TC. hit stop. Loss of .065% of capital.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #90 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
TC. hit stop. Loss of .065% of capital.

Sorry to see the demise of TCM for you. Looking at the chart below I see it has risen briefly back to $2.30 but fell back.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

The jury is out as to whether this is a rest or a bottom currently. Looking at my other charts I lean to this being a rest and a further decline is coming...at best it will migrate sideways to the 20daySMA for a while.

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  #91 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I am back from my short vacation to California. Had fun relaxing and playing with my one year old grandson. Left Canada with snowflakes falling after weeks of relative warmth....left 80degf weather to return to -9degc in Calgary and lots of snow on the ground....looks like I missed nothing weather-wise...hopefully I dragged some warm weather with me.

I made no adjustments to my portfolio and here is the status as of Friday March 21



Well there is good news and bad news

Bad news first.....

well we lost a bit of profit over that week by losing 0.59% over the week. However, I am not unhappy with this as we had an amazing 3.10% in the previous week.

Secondly, the losses are mainly in the Gold stocks... BTO.TO lost about $1300.00 of profit but still remains over 5% profitable so with the world troubles such as they are I expect a rebound at some point. SSL.TO lost another $1300.00 of profit but remains over 6 % in the black.

Now the Good news..

KLS.V stepped up to the plate with nice gains as well as NDN.TO...DRX.TO which I though was under threat has recovered enough that it looks like it may turn profitable but I will still maintain the limited-stop loss on it for now though it may be raised later in proportion to gains until I feel it will be profitable.

I wonder about the retreat of the price of gold. I would have thought there would be a flight to it given the world situation in the Ukraine...but investors seem to be shrugging it off....for now anyways

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  #92 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well another bad week but it did get better towards the end. Here is the state of the union at the end of this week



As you can see ADF Trading Group (DRX.TO) fell back and tripped the Stop Loss....I still like this stock but this is obviously not its time.

I am still in the black but have been disappointed with the price of gold dropping as it has done over the last 10 days. The problems with Russia don't seem to bother investors it seems.

Futures Gold Chart Daily

I do see a support at about $1270 and I doubt Gold is headed down for long so I won't touch my gold stocks for now.

It did teach me a lesson....I like to get at least 20% for a return...If I had done that I would have captured the BTO.TO before it fell and saved $2000 profit ...then bought in again....the fall of BTO.TO has nothing to do with anything but the price of gold....and the same goes for SSL.TO

So with that in mind I have decided to place a limit Stop-Loss for Kelso Technologies [ KSL.V ]. Again I really like this company being that it manufactures upgrades to rail oil tankers...a problem that will not disappear.

Here is a recent chart for the last 5 days



You can see that it is in a resistance /support channel

I will set the sell stop at $4.33/share....this will hopefully avoid a short term downward spike below the resistance. I do think this will be necessary as I think it will break positive through that resistance....But I RESOLVE to NOT let a 20% gain slip away like that.

Selling is the worst part of my game.

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  #93 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well, I don't read the news very often on any stock I purchase but when something weird happens I want to know why. So imagine my pleasant surprise when Nordion [TSX:NDN] gapped from $11.50 to $12.75 today. over a 10% gain...yippeeee



What the heck is going on??

So I check the news and I find this story out after hours on Friday


Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

here is a quote from the story


Quoting 
Nordion Inc. (TSX:NDN) (NYSE:NDZ), a leading provider of products and services to the global health science market, announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") to be acquired by Sterigenics, a global leader in sterilization services and a portfolio company of GTCR LLC, a leading private equity firm based in Chicago, Illinois, USA. Pursuant to this Arrangement Agreement, shareholders will receive an aggregate cash consideration of US$11.75 per share (collectively, the "Consideration"). Upon closing of this transaction, Nordion will operate as a standalone company within Sterigenics and will continue to operate under the Nordion name.

So...the company is being sold to Sterigenics for $11.75USD.

So...is it time to sell??? No...not yet....at today's exchange rate $11.75 in USD is $13.00 CAD so at $12.75 currently this stock should climb at least another $0.25 cdn and often there is an overshoot...so this will be fun to watch....I am guaranteed $13.00 so I can wait ... that gap will not back fill.

more details on the sale


Quoting 
"Nordion's Board of Directors fully and unanimously supports this transaction", said Bill Anderson, Chairman of the Board of Nordion. "The Management team, with direction from the Special Committee, undertook a comprehensive process to reach an outcome that the Board agrees delivers significant value to our shareholders and serves the best interest of our employees, customers and business."

Transaction Details
The Arrangement Agreement between Nordion and Sterigenics provides for a non-solicitation covenant on the part of Nordion, subject to customary "fiduciary out" provisions. A termination fee of US$12 million would be payable to Sterigenics in certain circumstances, including if it fails to exercise its right to match in the context of a superior proposal supported by Nordion, and a reverse break fee of US$24 million would be payable by Sterigenics to Nordion if the transaction is not completed in certain circumstances.

Ahhhhh....it is not a done-deal yet the action is "unanimously" supported by the Nordion Board....however it still must be ratified by the shareholders.

Note also that having made this agreement, Sterigenics is protecting itself if this deal is not consummated...either by abject rejection by the shareholders OR a competing bid for the company by another company.

So....this price will be AT LEAST $13.00 cdn.....if the shareholders get pissed I have seen the price bid above the bid price for the company since they feel that they are getting ripped off.


Quoting 
Nordion intends to make an application to the Commercial List of the Superior Court of Justice in Toronto, Ontario on or about March 31, 2014 for an order extending the time for calling and holding of the annual general meeting (the "AGM") currently scheduled to take place on April 29, 2014, such that the AGM would be held concurrently with the special meeting of shareholders to consider the transaction. Nordion will update and provide further details in respect of that matter in an upcoming news release.

So there is at least one month until the decision comes down. If the price rises to $13.00 ( or rather whatever the conversion of $11.75 USD comes to in CAD terms and does not rise further at the time of the meeting...I will sell as if there is no competing bid the shareholders will probably approve the sale. But if the share price rises higher or a higher competing bid appears...I will ride the wave a little further.

BTW...this stock has a USA listing of [NYSE:NDZ] for any Americans reading my journal.

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  #94 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

In post #92 here I showed the resistance support channel for KLS.V. It had been bouncing along this channel for 3 days between $4.35 and $4.42 and it was uncertain as to whether the support or resistance line would be broken. Well today the stock rose to $4.55 so that question is answered.



it looks to me that this current run is not over and this last few days was nothing more than a rest. As a result I am removing the stop-loss for now...I may reapply it in a few days at a higher level ....the $4.42 level appears to be a support right now.

I have almost $13,500 burning a hole in my pocket. I have been looking for a good high paying dividend stock and I have found one in the Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NIF.UN]

Here is the quote sheet for the stock

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

If you check the dividend box under the stub yearly chart you will see that it produces a consistent monthly dividend of $0.042 (yield: 9.43%)

I don't consult expert opinion much but I did check out this site for opinion on NIF/UN.TO



this is not a stock to flip for its capital growth....it grows at a snails pace....but a 9+% dividend yield that is stable is not something I ignore for a long term hold

I just looked at my free L2 chart and see the stock has fallen to $5.25....hmmmm....glad I checked first....so...it has been flirting with a high for the last 3 or so years and is pulling back now



It may pull back to between $5.00 to $5.10....

I am going to set a limit bid for $5.10 for 2500 shares of Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NFI.UN] valid til April 14/14

I may adjust the price upward if there is not a continuation of this fall...but that is my bid right now

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  #95 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well this week has been a refreshing change from the last 2...we are back on track and making profits again



Despite the fall in value of Gold which was a major cause for the decline for the previous 2 weeks, this week KLS.V and NDN.TO have stepped up to the plate with impressive gains.

It was touch and go as to whether KLS would rise or fall as see in that previous post I made which caused me to slap on a stop limit loss when the price was floating in a horizontal channel....however since exiting that channel, breaking the resistance the share price has gained almost $0.75 per share....

Is the run over for KLS??? here is one of the charts I use to evaluate that



look at the Slow Sto....still pegged over 80....very flat with even a touch of an upturn. Slow Sto is USUALLY the first indication of stop to the run. When it starts trending with a negative slope I begin to think the end is nigh...but I don't really get concerned until it trends below 80...it depends on what I see in the next 2 indicators.

Look at the MACD....I don't use a signal line as you see....I find that the longer the timeframe the more useless the MACD signal line becomes....daytrading with a 1-5 minute interval....the signal line is very useful....but daily intervals always have late signals....it is much better to trend the MACD itself...As long as it has a non-negative slope it is all good...a zero slope is ok as long as the other indicators are not negative

Look at the BBwidth....see how the trend 3 days ago was pretty flat....and that sparked concern that perhaps the run was over....then looking at the intra-day chart showed the horizontal channel that had formed.

So it was not time to pull the plug unless there was a break on the support....I set the stop-loss as a precaution and was rewarded .

Currently I don't see the target as this stock is rocketing into the stratosphere....there is no past comparison.....So much for useless penny stocks under $5, eh. This is sort of true with American stocks....but Canadian stocks seem a lot different and $1 - $10 is my hunting ground.

An example of an end of the run is in this chart....November 19 shows what happens....see the slight neg slope to the Slo Sto....then the sharp break in the direction of the MACD and BBwidth.....that is a sell sign if you are swing trading....

I know I have some regular readers now

If you want me to discuss the way I evaluate buy/sell charting signals in more detail....just ask.

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  #96 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well there seems no stopping Kelso Industries [KLS.V]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

A gain of over 9% today so far with an hour of trading left.



There is no sign in the indicators that this run has topped out. But I am concerned about a couple of things with this stock.

1.) The closing price today is quite far above the upper bollinger band. It has been above for a couple of days now and I would expect to see a pullback soon. .... This does not mean the run is over as it could move sideways or with a slight neg drift ....however it might plummet...so it is prudent to put in another Stop-loss again.

I am going to set a Limit Stop-loss on this stock at $5.20 -5.25 which is about 7% less than its current price of $5.68

If the price spikes like this tomorrow ....I will seriously consider selling and taking my profits....mainly because of #2 in my concerns.

2.) This stock is LONG over due for a quarterly report.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

We should have seen a quarterly report in February for Dec/13....but we are going into April and no report.....that bothers me. I do like looking at revenue/debt info and it is not there

oooopps!!! I just looked at their website and found the Dec/13 annual report which was issued on March 28/2014.

here it is if you want to read it.

https://www.kelsotech.com/sites/default/files/2013-Q4%20Kelso%20Audited%20Financial%20Statements%20Dec%2031.pdf

And it is a pretty good report as the company is solidly in the BLACK and this report is probably the driving force for the recent run.

I feel much better now....but I will still leave that stop-loss limit order in place and I may rethink selling if it shoots up again.....if it dips below and triggers the sale then I will re-buy at the bottom of a dip....I don't really do this in real life....it would be an experiment if I did.

Happiness is riding a rocket....just have to be careful to bail before the final explosion if it comes.

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  #97 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

If you have looked at my spreadsheet updates...you will see that over the last couple of weeks I lost a fair profit in my gold stocks. BTO.TO and SSL.TO

Why did I not sell them and take my losses...well first of all, I was not losing money overall as KLS.V and NDN.TO stepped up to the plate and performed well.... so I was still in the black. Also I could not believe that the price of gold was going to falter forever given the troubles in the Ukraine...So I held on and crossed my fingers.

Gold related stocks DEPEND on the spot price of gold. There is a very close relationship to the movement of the stock and the spot price of the metal....you will note that I don't like to invest in "exploration stocks" for any metal. These are dream painters, nothing more. They will tout "x" million oz of gold (or whatever metal) and say the property is worth "y" billions of dollars. The fact is that a newly found property...IF IT IS FOUND TO HAVE A COMMERCIAL RESERVE of GOLD....will take at least 5-10 years to become a producing mine...you are investing in dreams until the mine is producing and anything can happen in 10 years.

You can see how the negative resistance/support lines changed slope to positive. and currently the price has broken through the last resistance line.



This is a daily chart with 1) showing the current support line; 2) is the current resistance 3) (dotted) shows a previous diagonal support that was broken 4) now identifies the current diagonal support. 5) is a secondary resistance line if the price of gold were to rise above 2)

this next chart is an hourly chart and shows how the resistance/support lines changed from bearish to mildly bullish



You can see how the negative resistance/support lines changed slope to positive. and currently the price has broken through the last resistance line. I could probably guess at a new support line but it is difficult to guess at the next diagonal resistance...it is not well defined but looks promising.

So...let us look at the spot price of gold



this is an interesting chart. It is forming what I call a "MACD/BBWidth" squeeze. You have to be careful here when after a fall the stock price (or commodity) goes sideways for a couple of days. It could be a bottom or it could be just a rest with further decline to come.... if the MACD makes a complete reversal of direction to the positive AND the BBwidth turns negative slope (along with a rise in Slow Sto) then you will see the pinch or squeeze....It looks promising now but not a surety at this point.

Typically when the price reaches a bottom the price then wanders back to the 20daySMA (dotted green line)....IF this is just a rest the BBWidth will not turn negative and the MACD will continue negative.

Also note the blue 50day SMA...that could act as a resistance in the near future.



the above chart is showing mixed signals.

1. the ADX DI +/- avoided a bearish cross...it is not a definitive avoidance...it could still happen in the near future but it is at least hopeful.

2. The RSI has changed its slope to positive in the last few days (hopeful again but not definite yet.)

3. the CFM on the main chart is still very bearish



this Ichomoku chart is not encouraging.

First the On Bal and CCI that I placed at the bottom are still quite bearish. In the Ichi chart itself you see the price buried in the green cloud...it is like molasses in there...the upper part of that cloud is a resistance and bottom is a support. the current price is $1298 when I last looked so it looks like we will challenge that cloud border but I look at the thin blue/red lines above and they are very bearish and show no signs of a reversal of direction.

Conclusion

I like working my way through these charts on any stock decision...I can come to a consensus which is usually pretty good.

I don't think we have plumbed the bottom yet. We may have the price rise to the 20day SMA (3rd chart) over time but once we do the price will wander above/below this line until the Bollinger bands get really tight... OR ...this could be just a rest before another plummet in price.

At this point I lean to the first scenario...wandering to the 20daySMA/narrowing BBs before a true direction is set.

As a result...I will hang onto my golds.

PS:

KLS marches on....It did fall back to the upper BB and now is tracking it nicely...I will lift that Stop-loss again...I am not afraid of a decline now.


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  #98 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well this has been an excellent week.



up 5.5% in about 7 weeks...let us see if I can hang onto it

I will have to watch KLS.V like a hawk...if gold bounces back it will be another good week.

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  #99 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

{Sigh} I did say in another post that selling is the weakest part of my game...didn't I?

Well KLS.V took quite a dive this morning...dropping to $4.90 before rising back to $5.09 at this time.

here is one chart



It could be just profit taking as it has had such a nice rise in the last month...it is still rising as I watch right now and is currently $5.12.

NOTE how the Slow Sto is beginning to decline but it is still above 80...this is only very mildly bearish. The BBwidth HAS started to reverse its slope to negative. If the MACD show a negative slope (currently it is flat) then this is a signal that the run is over.

Does this mean the price will plummet to lose all gains? Perhaps it will but more likely, though the run is over, the price will search out the 20 daySMA...best case scenario will be it will move sideways until the price meets this average, where it will rise/fall around this average until the Bollinger bands get tight again signaling time for a major movement (this is called a consolidation for newbie readers)...this is shown in the chart with the BBwidth falling to about 20...as you can see all major movements in price happen when the bbwidth falls to this level.



You can see this price recovering...I do see a resistance at $5.15 and it is rising to meet that right now...whether this will be significant remains to be seen.

I am effective 9:15 MST Apr 7 setting a limit-stop-loss at $4.95 - $5.00

Even if I sell this puppy, I will be looking to buy into it again when it finds its bottom (if it falters) as I believe this stock is only just starting to become known and the problem of unsafe rail tankers is not disappearing and they are the one that has the solution.

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  #100 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well....3 hours later it plunged below $5.00 so KLS.V is sold....but not forgotten...I will wait til the Bollinger bands on this stock tighten again and consider a re-buy....nice run

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