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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #71 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
Here is a quote from Mark Cuban on Fundaments.

It is obvious that Mr. Cuban is very successful...Warren Buffet is successful too...there are many successful people in the investment communities with philosophies to sell.

Would I blindly follow any one of these ....nopes. In my UNSHAKEABLE opinion, fundamentals of a company and that goes a lot further than look at a few ratios, is more important the longer your investment vision. For a day trader, fundamentals are basically useless..but even there they would be wise to check out the companies behavior when it comes time for the company to make a quarterly report as many of the jumps or falls in share price happen then.

Even the numbers and ratios can be useful IF YOU DON'T LOOK AT INDIVIDUAL NUMBERS. If you look at a companies operating revenue and it is marching higher with each quarter...that is much better than a company with falling operating revenues....If the Operating Revenues rise but Net Revenue falls then the question comes as to why are costs increasing. Checking out a dividend paying stock...a review of its payouts to see if they are continuous and rising...especially through a crisis like 2008-2009 is important. There is a reason why the TD BANK is doing so much better than the Bank of America and it has nothing to do with technical analysis.

All of these things are pretty well useless if you are looking at less than a month investment...but IMHO they are very important if you are looking at a stock that you might consider holding for a longer term.

The viewing of individual TA indicators makes about the same amount of sense. Many think a RSI over 70 is a sell signal....but this is not true in my opinion....it depends on whether it is trending positive into that zone or negative out of it. If trending into or flatlined within that zone the stock is quite bullish....to be trending out of this zone it is only mildly bearish....it could easily turn around and re-enter that zone....similar with a stock with RSI entering the <30 zone...I think it is laughable when some say this is a buy signal...it could stay in that mud for months and if it starts to trend out of that zone it is only Mildly bullish.....that is why I don't depend on on or two indicators....I evaluate each individually and take a consensus and I cancel out opposites...what is left is a decent view of its current situation

I don't like this US versus Them attitude. There are investors that make a ton of money using both analysis systems. The trick is to borrow the good stuff and fit it into your particular investment strategy.

TA is very important to me but I have made some horrible choices in the past on the basis of TA...my batting average is much better employing both methods.....Just my opinion...Quoting other traders will not change my opinion. I have never found any book describing my brand of TA....worked it out myself and it is still a work in progress in fine tuning...I have studied charting for over 25 years.

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  #72 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
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Underexposed View Post

I don't like this US versus Them attitude. There are investors that make a ton of money using both analysis systems. The trick is to borrow the good stuff and fit it into your particular investment strategy.

I agree with you.
I never buy a stock based on fundamentals because I know from experience the games accountants can play to manipulate the numbers they are required to report. That being said I prefer to have stocks with stellar fundamentals in my watch list. When I buy a stock based on TA I want to be able to find a buyer when it comes time to exit. Good Fundies make that easier.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #73 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Ok ... in addition to the limit stop-loss that I have placed on Western Forest Products as mentioned earlier.

I will place a bid for a limit buy within the first hour of trading for 3000 shares of Kelso Technologies Inc. [TSXV:KLS]

I like this stock for several reasons...they manufacture hardware that makes railroad oil tankers safer which is quite timely considering the raft of railroad explosions in the last 4 months. They have recently opened a manufacturing facility in Texas...again quite timely.

They have no debt and increasing Operating revenue with each quarter...however costs have risen so that while they have been in the black on the last 3 reported quarters...they have had expenses with respect to a new valve design and probably the building of that new facility. The increased use of railroad tankers to move oil product and the age of the tankers makes this potentially a nice long term hold.

TA



the P&F chart shows that there is a pretty solid resistance at between $3.50 - $3.60 and the share price is knocking at that door.

the next chart to the right is my "trigger" chart and you can see the Slow Sto has lead the way with the MACD following...The BBwidth is at a nice level where breakouts usually occur for this stock and has flatlined

Moving down a chart show the share price to be a bit contrary to the CFM decline in past month and now this indicator is moving out of the mud it looks mildly bullish...the RSI has a slight positive slope over the past month or so and the ADX DI+/- show indecision with the "chaining" of values though right now it shows mildly bullish with the green above the red

The last chart show the Ichimoku....I like how it fought its way through the green cloud...the Onbal Vol and CCI look favourable as well.

All these indicators are a bit muted in their bullishness, however I like the business and it seems to be timely to me...

So I will place a limit bid for 3000 shares of KLS.V @ $3.47/share within the first hour of trading...or less if I can catch a small dip, we shall see.

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  #74 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Here is the status of the account since yesterday March 11



As you can see the Stop Loss for Western Forest products tripped and it was sold and at the same time the limit Bid for Kelso Industries was successful. It was pretty rough on Monday but by the end of Tuesday we recovered small losses and so far we have a slight gain for the week.

We still have cash on hand to the tune of $18,000 available so I want to place this in another gold related stock. That would be Sandstrom Gold [TSX:SSL; NYSE:SAND] this company is not a gold mine per se, it is a gold mine financing company. They invest in mines that are in their final stages of development before being a producing mine. Instead of interest the company places the money for a share of the mine's revenue in the form of physical gold or a royalty stream from the life of the mine.



As you can see it has had a jump today and is cresting a resistance at $6.50...



the breakout chart shows this to be just in the starting stages



It looks to be topping out now

I will enter a limit bid of $6.50/share for 2500 shares of SSL.TO ..... effective 8:30 MST

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  #75 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well about 30 mins after I made the last post the share price dipped below $6.50 then by the end of the day the price rose to $6.85 to close there...Finally some good timing....still 2 more trading days before week's end so I should have good numbers for the end of the week.

All but about a little less than $2,000 remains un-invested I won't touch that money right now.

We are all green so far....may it continue.

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  #76 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
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Rolling the dice with TC or TCM.to
Doubled my position today at 2.40 $US; a close below 2.30 will see me gone.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #77 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
Rolling the dice with TC or TCM.to
Doubled my position today at 2.40 $US; a close below 2.30 will see me gone.

why would you Double your position on a stock that is declining share price stock???

I think you are trying to catch a falling knife.

I had a great day today on the strength of big gains in SSL.TO, BTO.TO, BNP.TO

well produce a summary of the state-of-the-union tomorrow after the close

I wish you luck on your TC

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this is not a turn around sign to me

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  #78 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
why would you Double your position on a stock that is declining share price stock???

I think you are trying to catch a falling knife.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this is not a turn around sign to me

Near the bottom of the trading range.

Was in the plan.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #79 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Hmmmm here is your post on how you acquired the stock....the highlights are my own for emphasis


deaddog View Post
Here is how I look at TCM;
Price had been in a steady decline since September. On Dec. 19 price made a new low but with a bullish candlestick on above average volume.
On Dec 31 price made a higher low and on Jan. 3rd a higher swing high.
Now Im watching.
On Jan 9 there was a higher swing low and I am planning to initiate a position.
The plan was to enter if price trades above the Jan 9 high.
It did that on Jan. 14 with a violent gap up. I got my fill at 2.75.
Since then I have had no reason to sell as the price has been making higher lows.
Friday there was a couple attempts to break 3.30; both failed but buyers supported the price above 3.10.
I agree there is resistance at the3.30 area and also around 3.60
Well see what Monday brings.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

well since that time, the stock has failed in attacking those resistances and now is on the slide


deaddog
Near the bottom of the trading range.

Was in the plan.

You and I have a different view of the TA on this stock as I see the halt as nothing more than a rest before sliding further....I certainly would not double my holding on that basis...I suppose you are averaging down.

As you can see from my approach I accept the loss and move on....anyways I hope this works for you but this is not my style.

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  #80 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Gold is on the move



there is two relevant resistance/support channels as can be seen in the above chart - one horizontal and the other diagonal.

We passed through a rather significant resistance at about 1350 recently...this opens the door to a rise to $1420. The diagonal resistance ie pretty bullish as the spot price of gold keeps bouncing up against the resistance since late Dec.



It is a little easier to see the horizontal resistance/support in the above P&F chart. We have just crashed through the 1360 resistance of a week ago and have turned it into a rather strong support now...Now we can look forward to a rise to $1420....in rising to this point most gold related stocks will benefit and rise as well....If they don not rise then you have proof positive that this is a dud stock.

you can see the world will really open up for gold if it passes the next resistance of $1420....it would then be targeting a huge resistance between $1560 - 1570.



this chart is the one I use for predicting breakouts. For a breakout to be real and predictable the Slow Sto and MACD must have positive slopes to their respective values then the BBwidth must reverse slope to positive in a sharp way.

You can see that in circle #1...now compare it to circle #2...see the MACD and Slow Sto rise but when the BBwidth reverses it is very muted and often means a head fake is happening.

Circle #3 shows another good breakout on Feb 10....the price of gold has been in consolidation until recently as it nudged up against the $1360 resistance.

Is the recent rise above the resistance (now support) a breakout? Well the Slow Sto and MACD are bullish but the BBwidth has not shown it is yet so a headfake possibility exists.



that is why I look to confirmation from other charts. This is a sentiment chart for me....there is nothing bearish about this chart.

the Spot price seems to follow the CMF overlay with a nice reversal following the lowest dive in the CMF....the change in slope of the RSI is dramatic as well . The ADX DI+/- had a bearish cross in early September than now this has changed into a bullish cross at the end of January and are diverging more and more each day.



finally the ICHIMOKU chart could not be more bullish. The red/blue thin lines shown by the arrows are growing further and further apart...the CCI and OnBal volume are also bullish

Conclusion

This all confirms to me that we can confidently look to the spot price of gold rising to about $1420. I cannot predict further than that....beware of those that say that Gold is going to $2000, $3000 or higher per oz troy in 6 months...no one can see that far ahead and they usually have another agenda.

Gold Mines and financial companies dealing with gold mines (Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Sanstrom Gold) should do well .... should you buy many many gold mining stocks??? I would not....they would all do well so I would pick one and ride with it (one mine that is).

I would be cautious about Mine Exploration companies...they sell dreams....they may claim they have X oz of gold in the ground...It is very difficult to verify this and if the mine is in the future (it takes 5 - 10 years to come to production) who knows what the price of gold will be.

With gold mines you have production data in financial data, operating and net revenues, costs...etc verifiable fundamental data....there are many scams that crawl out of the woodwork in good time so watch out.

Good trading!!

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