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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #501 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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very interesting analysis. i'm going to take some time to digest that.
Thanks!

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  #502 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well the price of this stock has rocketed off into the stratosphere as can be seen in the chart below





the purple line shows the head fake that the stock was going to plummet.

See the decline in the MACD and Slow Sto were omens of a huge decline.... within the BB envelop the stock price was rocketing down... but look at the BBwidth... barely a ripple. If that drop was real then you would have seen a rapid rise in the BBwidth as the Bollies expanded...

But now the MACD , Slow Sto and BBwidth are sharply positive reflecting the bullish jump.

And what a jump it has been... What has caused this beautiful response???

well it is spelled out in this news release

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

this is the the basics


Quoting 
Enbridge Income Fund to Receive Large Scale Drop Down Proposal From Enbridge

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Dec. 3, 2014) - Enbridge Income Fund (EIF or the Fund) and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX:ENF) (EIFH) were advised today that Enbridge Inc. (TSX:ENB) (NYSE:ENB) (Enbridge), which is the sponsor of the Fund and of EIFH, intends to make a proposal to transfer its Canadian Liquids Pipelines business, as well as additional renewable assets, to the Fund (the Proposal). The transfer would be part of a broader financial restructuring plan announced today by Enbridge. Enbridge has indicated that, under the terms of the proposal, EIFH is expected to acquire an increasing interest in the business through investments in EIF over a period of several years in amounts consistent with its equity funding capability. Enbridge expects that the investments by EIFH will result in an average growth rate in the dividend on EIFH's common shares of 10% per year from 2015 through 2018.

........

The assets proposed to be transferred to EIF include $16 billion of combined carrying value of Liquids Pipelines assets with an associated secured growth capital program of approximately $15 billion, plus $1 billion of renewable energy assets. These assets are described more fully in Enbridge's news release.

this is great news...there is a 10% increase in the dividend + $16 billion assets generating revenue.

NORMALLY, I would be suspicious of such a large leap in price....far above the upper bollie. But this is great hard news. I can see this going higher and hopefully at a positive slope to re-enter into bollie envelope.

One must be vigilant when such a high jump over the upper bollies...but there is a good reason for it....

Exciting to watch and hold

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  #503 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
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NORMALLY, I would be suspicious of such a large leap in price....far above the upper bollie. But this is great hard news. I can see this going higher and hopefully at a positive slope to re-enter into bollie envelope.

One must be vigilant when such a high jump over the upper bollies...but there is a good reason for it....

Exciting to watch and hold

Nice one.

Bollies become meaningless if either real 'hard news' or real 'herd news' takes over. If it's real a future mirror will show clear Elliott 3rd wave type behaviour, the main reason I dropped Bollies from my TA. From your fundamental analysis you already know when to discount them so you don't have that problem.

Great to watch.

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  #504 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


ratfink View Post
Nice one.

Bollies become meaningless if either real 'hard news' or real 'herd news' takes over. If it's real a future mirror will show clear Elliott 3rd wave type behaviour, the main reason I dropped Bollies from my TA. From your fundamental analysis you already know when to discount them so you don't have that problem.

Great to watch.

Thank you for your comment.

Yes, normal TA usually falls apart when there is a sudden change in the fundamentals, pro or con. I have in the past received a criticism that..."well your TA could not have predicted, such and such!"

The answer is no, nobody's TA could predict sudden rises or falls. Sometimes in 20/20 hindsight you can see small changes leading up to the event that look to support the change but in real time these changes are too subtle to act upon.

I do like fundamental analysis when searching for solid stocks to play long term. I wasted many years in the past playing weak stocks with the only thing going for them was the bullish run that they were in at the time I became aware of them. You can get trapped there as those gains can suddenly reverse FOREVER. Financially stable stocks have those reversals too but they usually are driven by sector or market influences beyond their control and they recover strongly as those market influences correct themselves.

I strongly believe there should be a marriage of the two types of analysis.

As far as Elliott Wave Theory goes, I have never been able to grasp how that works. The books I have tried to read on the subject were not very easy to read and at first when I started learning TA there was no charting service that method.

I use Stockcharts.com for most of my charting and found this basic description of Elliot Wave theory...Something I never looked at before

Elliott Wave Basics [ChartSchool]

I don't know if it is overly simplistic or not.

I have also discovered that there is an Elliot Wave tool in their "Annotated" version of their charts. I tried to play with it but so far (too early in the morning ) cannot figure how to use it... here is a graphic showing the chart and the tool location.





Perhaps you could shorten my learning curve and get me started on using this tool. then I can see how I can use it in my analysis... I am always open to adding arrows to my quiver

I can understand your initial aversion to Bollies they can be deceptive at times but hopefully I have been able to demonstrate their use...and yes...gapping, for whatever reason, renders Bollie use pretty much useless until things settle down again.

As always, your comments are appreciated

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  #505 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Here is the end of week status for this portfolio

Despite the great increase in the share price of the Enbridge Income Fund there has been an equally bad response of TD Bank. As a result we have a second negative week in a row...though it is 50% less than last time...if TD had not fallen and just stayed the same we would have had a positive result.

I will look at the charts for the components in this portfolio in my next post





NOTICE: the previous Excel mid week status show the results were for the Friday but that was just me getting ready for the weekend and forgetting to set the time to Dec 3

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  #506 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I am not going to to a detailed analysis on these chart...except a bit more devoted to the Toronto Dominion Bank which deserves a bit more analysis

Lundin Mining

You might recall a comment I made that is you choose solid companies financially then you don't have to worry too much about them going to wallpaper on you. If you invest in risky stocks on the rise and they plummet they may never recover....I have lost a lot of money chasing the latter before I learned that lesson.



you recall near mid of November I set a stop loss to protect profits that looked to be disappearing if the price fell further ... I set the limit stop loss with a range about $5.37 - $5.39... it worked like a charm to start with I raised the stop loss as the share price rose....willing to have it sold at any time there was a drop. I was at $5.65 -5.67 and then the stock tanked...it gapped lower than my Limit stock loss range so it did not trigger a sale. I prefer this as usually there is a pullback from a bottom and I don't want to sell at the bottom. It continued to fall for a couple of days.

I could have sold at any time but this fall had nothing to do with oil... nervous investor were selling anythin that had a profit..... so I cancelled that Limit Stop-loss and am please to see the share price rise...you can see a support at about $5.25.

the Sto Sto has not fallen below 50 and even has an uptick, the MACD has flattened and the BBwidth is continuing to fall...looking at the Slow Sto it will be 3-5 days until the "trigger zone will be gained...the price should move sideways til then.... no reason to sell.


Enbridge Income Fund

this is the star of the week....



this is a real jump as I pointed out earlier based on Enbridge placing additional assets into the income fund.

See the share price drop to the upper BB then bounce higher... early next week the upper BB may catch up to the price....but so far no decline... the three indicators below scream Bullish.

You note I sometimes add Parabolic Sar.... I believe its signal when the above price Par Sar hits the share price in the throat of a BB pinch....July 15 is a good example of that. Some people use this as a indicator overly to show when a rise is over (eg Aug 27)... but I tend to focus on the three indicators below and use the parbol Sar as just a confirmation. I believe this will be a winner for some time to come due to that acquisition.

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  #507 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

the Toronto Dominion Bank price drop is the mirror image of the Enbridge Income Fund rise

Here is the chart




Another massive change that came as of the bolt from the Blue. Another stock in the collateral damage of the OPEC decision not to cut oil production levels.

There is news though on TD Bank in the form of a financial report

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

It is the time all banks report I believe and this was not a particularily damaging but it did not meet analyst expectations and the results were less than the previous quarterly report...here are on the yearly and last year quarterly comparisons


Quoting 
FOURTH QUARTER FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS, compared with the fourth quarter last year:

Reported diluted earnings per share were $0.91, compared with $0.84.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.98, compared with $0.95.
Reported net income was $1,746 million, compared with $1,616 million.
Adjusted net income was $1,862 million, compared with $1,815 million.

FULL YEAR FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS, compared with last year:

Reported diluted earnings per share were $4.14, compared with $3.44.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $4.27, compared with $3.71.
Reported net income was $7,883 million, compared with $6,640 million.
Adjusted net income was $8,127 million, compared with $7,136 million.

Are they bad results??? Nopes, but investors are nervous and not meeting expectations caused the plunge of about 3%

Let's look at the P&F chart before looking at the Trigger chart again




Okay what was it's crime??? It attempted for an all time adjusted share price high (it has had a couple of forward splits in its time)

It is hardly going to wallpaper based on the financial report and this chart.

Now let's get back to that "Trigger chart"

the drop is real....the indicators did not give much of a warning....actually NONE worth acting on, before the drop. Yes the MACD was in a bit of a decline and the Slow Sto dropped a bit but that is normal in consolidation and the Slow sto was still over 80 before the drop....you would have had to be psychic to pick that time to sell hopping it would drop.

Now look at the last 2 days...FAR below the lower BB...and the last candle a doji that pulled back from even lower levels...I don't expect a sudden rebound but that bleeding should stop soon...not a magic rebound ...rather a sideways movement with a bit of a positive slope. A rebound like on Oct 15 is a bit much to ask for but it should trend back to the 20daySMA again soon.

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  #508 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...Let us do the last 2 stocks in the portfolio.


EnerCare Inc

This is stock that has performed quite well in a rather quiet way....this is its chart





It may seem like it is an energy stock, so why did it not fall earlier because of the of the OPEC Oil production announcement???

Well names can be confusing some times.... this company makes its money through rentals and metering of water heaters of all things... obviously by the chart they are pretty good at it

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Its last quarterly report look pretty darn good.


Quoting 
Q3 2014 Financial Highlights

Quarter ended September 30, 2014 versus quarter ended September 30, 2013

(in thousands of Canadian dollars except per unit amounts)(1)

Total revenues increased by 4% to $80,469
Rentals attrition improved by 8% with nine consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement in attrition
EBITDA(2) increased by 0.5% to $38,740: EBITDA would have improved by 8% to $41,926 after adjusting for Acquisition related costs
Payout Ratio - Maintenance(2) improved to 49%
Sub-metering sales activities were strong with 3,000 contracted units

.............


"It has been a tremendous year so far," said John Macdonald, President and CEO. "At the beginning of the year specific strategic priorities were established. We have stayed the course and good progress is being made on all levels. As a result, going into the last few months of the year, our operating segments have good momentum."

Macdonald continued, "Now that the acquisition of Direct Energy's Ontario home and small commercial services business is complete, we have taken our first successful steps towards integrating the two businesses. We continue to achieve our goals of a seamless transition with no impact on our sales or services levels."

Well now, Absorbing Direct Energy's Ontario home and small commercial services portends well for the coming year... and a nice Monthly 4.56% dividend

No reason to jump ship....it is in consolidation now for at least 5-10 days until the next BB squeeze.


Badger Daylighting

here is the chart





we are in consolidation after that downward fall as shown by all three indicators declining.... the Slow sto looks to be flattening just below 50 and that is encouraging...the MACD is still negative....the BBwidth is very slowly closing...it will probably be a month before the bollies tighten enough for another major ris or fall there looks like a support at about $28.75 or so... I can see it rising up to and twining around the 20day SMA

Conclusion

The effect of that OPEC (read Saudi) announcement not to cut oil production levels and resulting oil price drop, hit the Canadian market harder than those of the USA... we are a commodity nation...especially oil and other than the USA we cannot service foreign markets.... and the USA could not careless as they are flush with the black stuff.

You can see it in this 6 month comparison chart... how badly that announcement affected us




Well that is all for today and I won't be available until Tuesday due to my concert commitments


Good trading

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  #509 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Just a short note to say that the Concerts are almost over. We had two performances yesterday to sold out audiences of 500 people each performance. We have one more performance tonight and it will be all over til our next show at the end of February.

The markets are not co-operating with the TSX down about 360 points as I type. the stock that is most affected in this portfolio is TD Bank [TSX:TD] is is taking another huge hit of over $1 and remains under the lower BB.

the drastic fall has nothing to do with ACTUAL revenues which had a rise...it has everything to do with analyst expectations were not met.... which to me is not much of a reason at all. There is also a discussion about future expectations that don't sound too dire to me.

Here is a Financial Post on the subject of the TD Bank

Toronto-Dominion Bank profit misses expectations, warns of challenges ahead | Financial Post

here is a quote on those bad times ahead


Quoting 
Chief Executive Bharat Masrani said in the earnings statement that looking to 2015, he expects the operating environment to be more challenging and the bank would focus on organic growth.

Those challenges include slow economic growth in Canada and sustained low interest rates, said Colleen Johnston, TD Bank’s chief financial officer.

She noted the bank’s 2014 results were also boosted by acquisitions, a weaker Canadian dollar that increased the value of U.S. earnings, and a decline in credit losses.

“Next year we would expect credit losses to rise in line with volume growth,” she told Reuters.

“We are very focused on organic growth and we know we have lots of opportunities there. That’s not to rule out M&A (mergers and acquisitions), but we don’t have anything coming to fruition at this point.”

She also said that while the Canadian housing market appears to be overvalued, the bank does not expect a hard landing given low rates and a still expanding economy.
“We actually think our growth in that business will be slightly higher in 2015 than it was in 2014, our lending growth,” she said.

Oh yes, DARK days ahead based on these statements!!!!! NOT!!!

This is an opportunity to add to holdings when this dust settles, IMHO


Future topics

I think I have beaten my trigger chart to death for now though I will still use it a lot and reinforce features when I do use it.

I would be interested to get some feedback on a future topic that is of interest.

I could discuss other charts I use such as P&F, Sentiment (with ADX, RSI,CMF), Ichimoku plus( Onbal volume, CCI).

I would like to try Elliot wave charts... this is new for me but I know little about them so a discussion there would be interesting to me.

I would like a discussion on use of my trigger chart on forex and commodity futures to see if they work there but I don't have the software to generate the type of charts so would be needing some example charts from others to comment on.

Finally if you have companies that you wish a reading of a trigger chart, I am open to that too....especially if you are attempting to use my "trigger" chart but having difficulty doing so.

So I will leave the future direction open right now. After tonight my time will be my own again for a while.

Good trading.......

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  #510 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
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awesome. i'll take you up on that. i trade some bonds (TLT), eurusd (EC) and airlines (LUV), so I'll bring up some of those charts a bit later on. It still confuses me when teh BB width decreases and what that means...because sometimes , the macd/stochastic are decreasing as well, and it's a true drop rather than a headfake. anyway, i'll bring that stuff up later. good luck with the rest of the shows!

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  #511 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


jackbravo View Post
awesome. i'll take you up on that. i trade some bonds (TLT), eurusd (EC) and airlines (LUV), so I'll bring up some of those charts a bit later on. It still confuses me when teh BB width decreases and what that means...because sometimes , the macd/stochastic are decreasing as well, and it's a true drop rather than a headfake. anyway, i'll bring that stuff up later. good luck with the rest of the shows!

I just have time to answer this excellent question. First of all, BBwidth is an indicator that is related to the distance between the upper and lower Bollinger bands in the main chart. When the BBwidth is falling it means the Bollies are getting tighter...in other words the prices are becoming less volatile...when they are less volatile then they can take off in any direction suddenly (we use the Slow Sto and MACD to give us clues as to the direction)

Lets use our BAC Chart





1. We will work left to right and start with the large blue circle. If you look at the Slow Sto and MACD they have been drifting lower and lower to the end of July...then the price takes a dive on Aug 1.

If this was a REAL BEARISH DIVE... then one would see the BBWIDTH suddenly rise indicating increased volatility.

RULE with a falling Slow Sto and MACD a sudden rise in the BBwidth with a continuing decline of the Slow Sto and MACD indicates a bearish run has started

But look at the BBwidth...not a ripple in movement....this is a Head Fake sign...it is reinforced by the fact the price has closed below the lower BB

RULE when share price suddenly falls...especially if it falls below the lower BB.... look at the BBwidth little or no response (ie . little or no rise in value) usually means this is a head fake and can be disregarded.

The small circle to the left of the large one shows a small head fake of a bullish price breakout .... again the price is above the upper BB, MACD and Slow Sto have solid pos slope... but the up tick on July 7 for the BBwidth died the next day...another head fake.

2. On Aug 20 we had another jump above the upper BB .... head fake?? ... the Slow Sto and MACD looks fine and the BBWidth is right behind it... so this is a real bullish .... The price stays above the upper BB for 3 more days....

RULE a share price that moves above the upper or below the lower BB will re-enter the BB envelope in 2-5 days....and will tend to go to the 20daySMA.

And this did so in the second best way possible...a sideways drift. IS THIS THE END OF THE BULL RUN???

3. Well this requires some judgement calls in careful look at this and other charts to evaluate.... just looking at this chart alone... look at the next blue circle.... SEE how the Slow Sto remains over 80 until Oct 10?? The MACD rises until Sept 25 or so.... it does not matter what the BBWidth does here....hopefully it is dropping back down lower but it does not matter... it is still a hold..... THAT IS it does not matter until ALL THREE INDICATORS are showing a negative slope ... the BBwidth drops then rises then starts to fall again... I like to see the Slow Sto drop lower than 80 and pay little attention to minor rises/falls above 80.

On Oct 8 All three are are falling.....time to sell.... the price will not rise further in the near future.... of course this applies to a swing trade mostly.

4. On oct 10.... the Slow Sto AND the MACD continue falling.... the BBwidth rises..... This is a bear signal

5. it did not last long but it was hard.... but note the MACD/BBwidth.... they are changing direction.... look at the share price ... A way below the Lower BB.... this is a sign of a potential bottom.... it could be only a rest though...if the Slow Sto does not rise strongly above 20.... it is a rest..

6. the dotted green line is a potential bullish rise but I don't like it. The trigger for the BBwidth is a way too high right now, when it falls to 2.5 to 5 for this stock then a major price movement will happen.... if waiting to buy in or add to a holding wait for that major movement when the BBwidth is low... after all it could take a dive further at that point and you don't want to buy until you know for sure it will be a good run.

7. So you are patient and wait til the BBwidth falls to below 5 and sure enough on Dec 5 the bullish trigger is pulled

I hope this helps.

the region between bbwidth trigger signals gives you information that you need to decide weather to sell/hold... when the BBwidth falls to a certain level (different for every stock) then it becomes necessary to watch it closely especially if you are swing trading.... long term depends on other stuff like fundamentals for me.

I hope this answers most of your questions... if not ask again

Good trading....

Gotta go.... curtain at 7:00pm and it is 4:00pm now ....

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Here is a sample of Christmas choir singing at our concert. I am one of the men in this video. I am a tenor 2 ... I am supposed to hit the high notes but not the highest ones for tenors...I'd need an atomic wedgie to hit those.

Singing in a choir is intensive in work but very satisfying when you get it right. It is a team building exercising too. If your voice stands out and you are not a soloist... you are doing it wrong.

After working at your desk for several hours of the day, the ability to mix with others in such an event and the rehearsals leading up to it adds a measure of balance to one's life. Also as you can see, the ratio of male/female is nice too. Lots of gorgeous women in the group

Christmas Time




We need a little Christmas




Lo, How a Rose E'er Blooming



It takes a long time to rehearse then it is over in 3 performances. Our next performance is at the end of February when we have a "Talent Show". This is a fund raiser for the Choir and gives members a chance to display their individual singing talents. We had 38 singing acts last year in a show that ran non-stop from 7:00pm to 11:00pm and no one left the pub where it is held. The SAIT Gateway pub holds about 450 people and it is sold out every year. Me and another guy sang 2 songs in duet there and one (of a total of 4 chosen) was selected to be sung in the finale for the year in the first week of June ... It was Beatles "Saw her Standing There" (the theme was British invasion.) Everyone had a blast at the pub in this party atmosphere.

I find this recreational hobby grounds me and gives me a balance from the market..... Hope you like the videos they are quite professionally done.

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  #513 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well the bleeding has not stopped.

Here is the status report.





As you can see, it is another negative week so far but there are 2 days to go so we will be further negative or in recovery.

I laugh at people here that say that my picks are somehow not real.... I certainly don't hide my losses and pretend all is fine.....(just an idle rambling)

Other than the price of oil dropping in a linear fashion there is no fundamental reason for it. Having Canadian banks tank because of the oil price is ridiculous.

Here is the WTIC chart for light oil





No sign of an end to that drop.





All Canadian banks are falling...they are not weak companies...they certainly have outperformed their American counterparts since 2009....that is until now.

The Canadian markets are so commodity driven that solid companies like banks get caught in the collateral damage.

Sell now??? Nopes...too late for that now. These are solid companies and should rebound...when I am not sure. If I was into financially weak companies that would be another story.


I am a little tired of teaching what I do.... I thrive on questions but either I have done an excellent job of outlining the Trigger chart and/or other than a few thank you's that don't really direct my actions, most are content to stay quiet. So I will simply update this portfolio twice weekly for a while and concentrate on other things in my life.

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  #514 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
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i think that's fair. we'll ask questions as they come. happy Holidays!

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  #515 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Another bloody week....still hanging tough.... To sell at this point is not in the cards for me I will make decisions on an upturn....Just playing with profits right now...If I was smart enough to catch the fall in the beginning that is another thing but I never thought the decline in Oil price would affect other sectors as much as this has....won't last forever.


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  #516 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well as the man said falling off the bridge...."so far, so good"

there has been a bit of a rebound but whether it will last or not is debatable. Here is the status report.




A nice mid-week result but nothing much has changed



this is the West Texas Light sweet crude chart and there is little here that suggests the fall has stopped.... so far it looks like a rest for me with the barest hint of a upturn in the MACD and Slow Sto still stuck in the mud. There is no slope change in the BBwidth

a bottom would be shown when the MACD and BBWidth pinched and both indicators go in opposite directions... so far it looks like a rest with further bleeding to come.

Gold is not looking much better.

Not only Russia is hurting and the ruble is falling but the same is happening to Canada.... just a far less extent.

And frankly it will happen to the USA...things seem very tentative right not....the house of cards is getting rather shaky IMHO

you can see here the effect of the global situation on Canada...there may be a recovery...I will wait for it since I believe the next fall will be greater.... maybe not but it does not feel good....spydie nerves tingling...


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  #517 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well it was as good week... I made back almost all of the losses from the previous week.





I am jaded as to my thoughts if this is sustainable. I am going to have to revisit these stocks...but my opinion of these stocks has not changed much. I really like the Enbridge Income fund and Toronto Dominion Bank I will take a closer look at Lundin Mining especially and Enercare to a lesser extent.

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At the time of posting this update it is Monday Dec 22 @6:54 AM MST about 30 mins before markets open here.

I have reviewed this portfolio and have decided that I should set limit stop-loss orders on Toronto Dominion Bank and Enercare Inc.

I changed my mind about Lundin Mining and feel that is ok for now.... TD Bank seems more vulnerable to me hence I will add this order.

ORDERS effective at the start of today's trading

Limit stop-loss for TD Bank [TSX:TD] 400 shares @ price range $52.25 - $52.50
Limit stop-loss for Enercare Inc [TSX:ECI] 2500 shares @ price range $13.70 - $13.80

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  #519 (permalink)
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the last two business days have been pretty good for the portfolio as you will see tomorrow

I am raising the trailing stops on TD Bank and Enercare as follows:

Limit stop-loss for TD Bank [TSX:TD] 400 shares @ price range $53.45 - $53.50
Limit stop-loss for Enercare Inc [TSX:ECI] 2500 shares @ price range $13.95 - $14.00

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  #520 (permalink)
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The trading is over for the day and even though it is a little over 2.5 days the gains have been pretty respectable since that stupid fall at the end of November.

I look at that drop and I wonder if I could take advantage of that dip. To do so, I would have caught it early in the drop and I am not sure I want to play that game.....why? because it takes a lot more continuous vigilance than I am prepared to do.

I do confess to own these stocks in my personal portfolios. Not in the quantities shown some like Enbridge income fund I have much more exposure and am reaping the benefit of that choice others I have about the equivalent exposure.

They are pretty solid stocks and I don't worry about them going to wallpaper on me. So I can pursue other interests in addition to trading.

As a long term trader you have to have a different mindset. If I worried nightly about whether or not I was going to blow my account overnight .... I would be a basket case. I make mistakes in choosing stocks and not every week is a winner as can be seen in the graphic below...but my batting average is pretty good and it is the collective movement of the portfolio that is important to me... not necessarily that of an individual stock. I seem to have a larger tolerance for risk than some here.... and I let a few stocks run longer than I probably should. But I let them run because I believe they will bounce back so that even though individually they have lost money, when they turn around they add to the collective.... in the mean time if I am really concerned of their future, I begin looking for a replacement as I put a trailing limit Stop-loss on the bad guy's tail. As you see, I have done so right now.

If they recover sufficiently I sometimes remove the limit stop-loss as it is not necessary.

Here is the status of this portfolio as of Dec 24





I hope that you can see that Long term trading has merit... but you must choose solid stocks... I prefer dividend paying solid stocks to get double bubble of capital gain + dividends.... also patience is required.

January 1 is not one year for this portfolio...I started this in the first week of February. So I will treat Feb 1 as my fiscal year end..... with any luck I will be 14-15% or so up and that is pretty good considering the rocky road the TSX has had since our Canadian markets are so dominated by energy and mining.

I would imagine some may think that this is luck... What I think I will do is at the end of January I will liquidate this entire portfolio and start again with $100,000.00 ... choosing another suite of stocks.

Then I will demonstrate that my approach is NOT a one year fluke.

Anyway, Have a great holiday season. Rest and comeback with purpose.

Merry Christmas and best wishes
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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
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Merry Christmas!!

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Well we started off the week on a positive note for the most part.

I have added another limit stop-loss to protect myself against a major decision point that is coming for Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD]



You can see how the BBWidth is approaching a level where price movements occur (ie. < 12) corresponding to the narrowing of the Bollies.

the Price movement looks fine... It has done the normal thing after recovering from a bottom (note the indication which is the MACD/BBWidth pinch) and that is the price went directly to the 20daySMA and then has wandered along the 20daySMA until it is ready to move again.

What direction??? Look at the Slow Sto and MACD.... they are not giving us a clue at this point. It is critical to watch this...especially if you want to make a buy for long term... this is a pretty neutral chart so far. And if i was looking to add I would look at other charts to get a hint but right now I won't...BUT instead, like I did for TD Bank and Enercare... I will set a limit stop-loss to protect myself in the event this falls suddenly (I would later buy this stock again as I really like this one for long term)

I have set the Limit Stop-loss for [TSX:BAD] at $26.90 - $26.95 which is close to where that bottom occurred

Why $26.95 and not $27.00??? Because in my experience often a stock will fall to a whole number then rebound and I don't want such an action to trip the stop-loss

I have had a good response in TD Bank to the stop loss I set for it... raising it from $52.50 to $53.50 and now the Limit Stop-loss for [TSX:TD] has been raised again to $53.50 - $53.95.... If it keeps on rising I will drop the Limit Stop-loss all together

Enercare is hanging tough so I am leaving the Limit Stop-loss where it currently is.

Good Trading....

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  #523 (permalink)
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I wonder what @jackbravo had to say that he deleted. He usually has good questions

Well the price of Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] fell to $26.90 which of course triggered the stop-loss so I am out of that stock and have $14,000 or so to invest somewhere.

this may be due to the recent continued drop to $54.00... with the bulk of its business in the O&G sector I can understand it being in the collateral damage of the oil dive.. But I will follow this stock and look for a bottom ... it is a good company and I look to rebuying the shares later... the loss of this period is trivial at less than $200

I am not sure what I will do with the $14,000 right now. I might just add to the other companies in this portfolio (Enercare would be a good choice if it showed some bullishness.... or I will look for something else... no hurry right now.

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 jackbravo 
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I didn't think it was a good question, so I deleted it

I was going to ask...it looks like there's a divergence on the two bottoms on the slow stochastic and the price, with price making higher lows and stochastic making the same low. Does that imply anything to you about future direction?

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jackbravo View Post
I didn't think it was a good question, so I deleted it

I was going to ask...it looks like there's a divergence on the two bottoms on the slow stochastic and the price, with price making higher lows and stochastic making the same low. Does that imply anything to you about future direction?

If you are referring to this chart for Badger Daylighting



I don't look at the Slow Sto indicator as far as it wanders with respect to Price. It is more of a sentiment indicator to me.

I pay attention to its trend when the Bollies tighten the most.

I also look at its position when the stock is in consolidation after a bull or bearish run.

The Slow Sto usually leads in defining a direction when the bollies are tightening (BBwidth falls to its action level).

you can see this from Oct 14 to Nov 14.... the Slow Sto rises as well as the MACD.... If I had the stock then, which I did not....this would give me confidence to continue holding it... even though the BBwidth just oscillated up and down.

the stage was set for a bullish run on Nov 14ish when the BBwidth suddenly had a positive slope.... that was the trigger (hence the name "trigger chart" to buy more and that was where I did make my purchase.

I played this for a long term hold and probably foolishly ignored the first drop in oil price when Saudi Arabia said NO to production cuts. In retrospect I should have pulled the plug and sold it as a swing...but I did not (Who in his right mind would have predicted $55/barrel oil at that time with the prospect of falling to $5/barrel or less back them???)

there was a MACD/BBwidth pinch which signaled a bottom or perhaps a rest on Dec 15.... As I have often said before... at the end of a bullish or bearish run... the price tends to return to the 20daySMA...which it did and it followed it for a while

HOWEVER, it is not the comparison of the divergence/convergence of the price versus the Slow Sto or MACD that bothered me... rather it was the direction and strength of these indicators as the Bollies were in the last stages of the bollie squeeze that was of concern.

Remember, I said that the Slow Sto gives clues as to direction first and MACD is usually second in this regard.

NOTE: the Slow Sto barely rose above the value of 20 before it turned into a negative trend. Also see how anemic the rise of the MACD looked.

That is a red flag when the bollies are getting tight (BBwidth reaching its normal trigger level (blue line))... this says to me that all is not well for a bullish rise.

So on Monday I issued a statement that I was setting a Limit Stop-Loss for Badger Daylighting of $26.90 - $26.95 and I did this just in time as Tuesday the price fell to $26.90 triggering the sell order which I will assume I would have gotten $26.95 for those shares... My real shares sold at that level so I am pretty confident in that assumption.

So it was the fact that the Slow Sto just barely rose above the so-called "oversold" level and then then reversed direction that bothered me. It may have been nothing but prudence made me apply the Limit Stop-loss. If the slow Sto would have resumed its positive trend I would have looked forward to a bullish breakout in a day or so... but alas, it was not to be.

I will be monitoring the fall of this stock and definitely look to plumbing for the bottom and re-buying the shares as this is a very well run company and the fall in oil prices ... it is caught in the collateral damage of this situation and losing work because of this.

I hope this makes sense to you.... it was not a dumb question at all..... none of your questions are.

Good Trading..........

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  #526 (permalink)
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this is not a one year status for this portfolio...it is only 11 months as it was started on Feb/2014.

So we are sitting at almost 11% so far and with any luck we will add a few more %... and this is typical of my overall % increase before subtracting expenses... a gross return of about 15% is what I normally get with about 6-9% net % increase after expenses for living are subtracted out....sometimes better...sometimes worse

Here is the status at the end of today's trading




you will note the sale of Badger Daylighting...there also has been a slight increase in more cash with the addition of a coupe of hundred $ in dividends.

For those following my American journal.... I will start twice weekly status reports starting Wednesday of next week.

Happy New Year and I hope your 2014 trading was good.

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 jackbravo 
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well done trading this year!
wish you and your family a happy and safe New Year.

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  #528 (permalink)
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I buy one (american portfolio) and lose one here today.

Looks like I tripped the stop loss for TD Bank [TSX:TD] at $53.95 as shown in this L2 chart




Now I have over $36,000.00 in cash in this account.

this it financial record for this stock . It was one of the first stock I bought (Feb24/14) and I netted an 11.81% gain as can be seen below



I am JUST missing out on another $188.00 dividend unfortunately as the ex-dividend date is Jan 10/15. But you cannot hang onto a stock for 4 more days to grab the dividend if it is falling obviously.

The TD bank is a good stock and I would re-buy it if it fell to $50 and showed a bottom there AND of course had some money in the account.

Right now I have about $36000 to reinvest so I will be busy for a while.

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well, rather than look for new stocks I decided to first check out stocks that I had previously had in this portfolio

Chorus Aviation [TSX:CHRB] looks really good again

here are the charts


1. P&F Chart





It looks like it wants to take a shot at breaching the resistance... at $4.60 - 4.65

it deserves a look


2. Trigger Chart





well ...well... well

look at the Slow Sto.... very bullish rising over 80.... MACD has a nice positive slope
the share price is nicely above the 20daySMA which in turn looks to be recrossing the 50daySMA
the BBwidth has been flat for a while now in a range where breakouts occur.

We sold this in early Sept as it started that plunge... it had risen but fell with many other stocks with the Saudi Oil production non-limit was announced... but that is also good for their operation, something that investors finally realize it seems ... this is not a slam dunk for the conservative player....but.....


3. Sentiment Chart





This chart is not Bullish but it is not overly bearish either. in the green circle we see improvement in the CMF but it is flirting only with going green... neutral bullish

the blue circle shows the RSI...which is above 50 but a little flat...mildly Bullish

The ADX DI+/- is still bearish though the gap between the red/green lines is narrowing.

Mixed messages though overall neutral as the three cancel out.


4. Ichimoku Chart





Now this chart is very reveling.

a) in the orange circle...see how the share price is crawling up the upper edge of the green cloud....that upper edge has served as a support... we are approaching the top of that cloud.... mildly Bullish

b) see the thin red/blue lines in that cloud. They are VERY much apart... Bullish

c) the OnBal Vol has a slight positive slope... mildly Bullish

d) the CCI looks Bullish now.... it could fall below 100... but still bullish.


Conclusion

As you can see, each indicator gives a slightly different perspective, A consensus of each is decided to the bullish side

If you are on the conservative side you would wait for the trigger to be pulled. But I think I have seen enough to jump the gun a bit.


here is the intra-day chart for the last few days





the RSI is rising slightly, the MACD is turning bullish and the BB's are narrowing

I shall enter a Limit to BUY 3000 shares of Chorus Aviation [TSX:CHRB] @ $4.51/ share. If the share price is lower than this value at the bell I will follow it in L2 and get the best price I can.... if it is higher I will leave the bid stand at $4.51

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  #530 (permalink)
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As you can see we have been oscillating above and below $4.51 all morning so my order for 3000 shares of Chorus Aviation [TSX:CHRB] @ $4.51/ share would have filled


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Well times are tough... Enercare Inc [TSX:ECI] had its stop loss tripped yesterday

here are details of the financial details. It was not a great gain but considering it is only a 3 month hold it is not so bad .... 1.75% is better than bank interest I suppose

I shall file my status report shortly and as you will see I have a lot of money in cash now. It is hard to find good prospects right now width the fall of Oil prices creating a bit of chaos I am not in a position to buy stock until an opportunity presents itself.


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Well the fall of oil continues and the drop in share values follow suit... at least any vaguely related to the O&G sector.

There will HUGE opportunities once the slide in Oil price stops...it doesn't even have to reverse direction suddenly...a stop and slow drift positive would suffice.

I have had quite a few decent stocks stop out on me for little reason other than the economic climate of late. I will keep them in mind as I did with Chorus Aviation [CHR/B:TSX]. That stock fell as well but hopefully won't be caught in the vortex of this problem

Here are the details....I have archived the 2014 details and starting anew.




I find it ironic... OIL prices go sky high and there are financial problems everywhere. Oil prices fall hard and just as many financial problems.

There is some talk of 2008 - 2009 happening again.... Hope not but I am preparing for it again now...

I wonder about whether Enbridge Income Fund [ENF:TSX] will fall further....I am watching that one....I have a lot of money sitting idle ....I would like to double the shares of that company to 1000 if it shows a bottom.

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  #533 (permalink)
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this income trust fund is purchased not for its capital gain.... rather it is for its 19% dividend paid in monthly distributions.

Usually such a high dividend stock is pretty dicey but I have off and on had this stock in the past and luckily I dodged the time when the stock lost 50% of its value ... back in Sept there was a decline in price, I was selling a lot of others that were declining and decided to sell one in my real portfolios.

This stock was set up to distribute the income from a Zinc smelter in eastern Canada. The smelter makes money as can be seen in this link

Income Statement quarterly

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Balance sheet

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

no current debt but an increase of a prior stable debt probably due to an upgrade to its process.

When looking at a dividend paying stock, you want to make sure it pays its dividends

Here is a chart showing the payments for the last 5 years

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

Now hover with the cursor over the green "D"'s and you will find that there is no change in the dividend and has made its monthly dividend faithfully ... even with the drop in stock price at the end of Oct. The December is due on Jan 15

So... 50% cut in share price, dividend remains the same.

Why did the price plummet??? Well times were rough...still are... and the the quarterly report referred to the fact that the agreement to process the zinc ore is set to END in 2016 (June I think)...so this negative news is not well received...even though the "news was known for years before that.

This is a buying opportunity to me....the stock is rising albeit slowly. I wish to purchase 5000 shares at $2.57 and I will receive 5000 x 0.04167 = $208.35 dividend each month.

There is risk here from 2 angles....

1. the shares may decline again and wipe out the dividend gain.
2. There may be a decline in share value over time simply because it is approaching the end of the smelter's contracts

Then I ask myself....why does management spend the money to upgrade their process if it only has an 18 month lifetime...sounds like a waste to me.

So to me anyway... the dividends are attractive and I'm betting that within the next year they will find more work.


Here are the charts

1) P&F Chart





well there is the resistance at $3.30 but getting there alone is a 70% gain +dividends....All right


2) Trigger Chart





the blue circle shows the price has been above the upper bollie so coming back into the BB envelope is expected. you can also see the 50daySMA might be a resistance here.

the Slow Sto and MACD are fine...and the BBwidth has flatlined but not topped-out yet



3) Sentiment Chart






All three indicators are still bearish but they are only mildly so and show improvement.




4) Ichimoku Chart






You can see the two indicators are fine and returning to bullish. The Ichimoku is mixed....you can see the price is baulking at entering the red cloud but the thin red/blue lines are definitely bullish.

I would be happy if it could just find its way into that red cloud for now


Conclusion

As I said ... it is the dividend that attracts me and others.... along with the stability of that dividend.

Tomorrow I will enter a limit bid for 5000 shares of Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NIF.UN] at $2.57... as before I will wait 15 mins to see if I can get a better price or if something unusual will happen

Good trading.....

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  #534 (permalink)
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well the day opened with Noranda Income Fund started the day at $2.55 and then passed through my price of $2.57/share so I will assume that my limit buy would have been executed.



it is continuing to rise slightly so looks good to go

Good Trading

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  #535 (permalink)
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Placing a limit Buy order to add 500 shares of Enbridge Income Fund [ENF:TSX] @ $38.90/share to add to my existing 500 shares and bring the total to 1000 at 8:45MST

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  #536 (permalink)
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the order was essentially a market order and would have filled immediately.... I always make my orders limit bids as I don't want surprises and have the order filled at a higher price than I want.


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  #537 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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I like that trade for its reversion to the mean quality plus the dividends, though reversion to mean trades are always dicey in stocks I feel.

Here's a question for you: Let's say oil continues to plummet to 20$/barrell. How far do you think these oil companies will fall, and if none of them would go out of business, then instead of stopping out of them, why not buy additional shares and average down? I know that's a no-non usually, but I'm learning that all the advice given to the general public is for the population safety rather than good advice for individual circumstances.

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jackbravo View Post
I like that trade for its reversion to the mean quality plus the dividends, though reversion to mean trades are always dicey in stocks I feel.

Here's a question for you: Let's say oil continues to plummet to 20$/barrell. How far do you think these oil companies will fall, and if none of them would go out of business, then instead of stopping out of them, why not buy additional shares and average down? I know that's a no-non usually, but I'm learning that all the advice given to the general public is for the population safety rather than good advice for individual circumstances.

I am not sure what you mean by "reversion" but I like Enbridge Income fund for both the dividend and its high capital gain potential.... if you look back a bit in the posts I made or just check out the history of news on this stock you will see that Enbridge gave the fund $16B in assets of another company (forget the name right now) for more income stream so that will/has boosted its ability to pay the dividend it pays as well as boosted its share price in rather bad times for most O&G companies.

I like O&G but am out of all companies othre than this one right now.... I shudder to think of the consequences of oil falling to $20/barrel. It would devastate Alberta, Canada's economy. We are very oil dependent here. I can see it falling to $40 though before the games the USA and Saudi Arabia are playing by opening the taps on increase in exporting oil to ruin the economy of Russia...which what this nonsense may be about.

Anyway, What you will see is survival of the fittest...and then a feeding frenzy on the weak companies as they are gobbled up by the strong.

Averaging down is not the way to go since they may be bought out and you would be stuck with losses of real money or much of the gains on the rebound would be just making up the averaging down losses .

Much better to wait for the dust to settle when oil prices bottom.... then the action will start on the buyouts and you will be buying companies on the rise... there are lots of companies on the Canadian markets that are looking very attractive now having lost 50% or more...but I don't like to donate money to their cause if they fall further.

Be patient...save cash for the rebound ... it may be slow in coming though....and not as fast as this decline was.

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here is the status of the portfolio...the start to the year sucks


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The downturn in the price of oil is definitely NOT good for Canadian stocks

You can see this in the two fantasy portfolios I have on this site, the second one being an American one.



Other than Chorus Aviation...the rest of the stocks have turned severely down





I seems that I am unable to discuss the oil prices on the poll because the the thread owner has placed me on ignore. There are several Canadian issues that should be addressed since Canadian O&G industries have lost about 1/2 their share prices since the rapid fall in oil price since mid-Sept. It affects Canada much more than the USA.

I am going to open a Canadian thread on the subject...not for futures trading but swing/long term trading specifically for Canadian stocks.

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Gold has been on the rise and is currently breaking out as shown below




Lakeshore gold has responded well from its bottom and is in a breakout also attempting to pass its 200daySMA




I am immediately placing a market order for LSG.To 10,000 share @ $0.98/share


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Got it....immediately.... it then fell to $0.975 as you can see below



I was sick lately and now in recovery....or was this just "gold"fever {sigh}... like it or not I am back in again

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  #543 (permalink)
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well the week ends much better than it began the mid week loss of about 4.7% was pared back to a loss of less than 1.8%

it is nice to see the rebound of Enbridge Income fund...and the performance of Chorus Aviation is satisfying.
The mining stocks have taken a beating but I am not too concerned there especially Noranda Income fund... that should recover nicely.





I have been watching Gold prices and that of Lakeshore gold and I feel that Gold is showing potential now





you will note I don't show a support line here....actually it is piercing it at the moment (rather it is piercing the resistance line that should become the support line. The blue arrows show the bottoms of zero columns I use to form the line. the solid diagonal line was a resistance also that was pierced today so it now is a support.

The current formation is quite bullish in P&F terms as it is a triple top breakout...the magenta arrows show the x columns involved

the dotted red line at 1330 shows the start of serious resistance again... we really don't break into freedom until we get past 1350-1360.... that is a huge resistance band.... making it to 1330 though will result in a surge for gold producing stock...as investor would switch from oil to gold again





See how bullish the breakout has been... Slow sto anchored above 80 for almost a week now....increased slope to positive MACD and the sharp breakout for the BBwidth 5 days ago

The only real negative is that the price is far above the upper BB...I expect a pullback but hope it will be a sideways motion rather than a plunge down....the sideways motion would confirm this is a serious try to be a bullish commodity.

I won't show the Lakeshore gold trigger chart as it was shown 2 posts ago when I decided to buy it again. Obviously that 200daysma stopped it for today's run...but I thought the P&F chart would be interesting to show as there is a lot of action there





As you can seethe green support (formerly a resistance was pierced today and it was pretty strong (you assess strength by the number of X column tops and O column bottoms make up the line and how recent they were.... theses are relatively recent and close together.

The next resistance is at $1.02 ... the blue arrows show the columns involved. Alone that would be a decent resistance but you can see 2 diagonal resistance lines crossing in the same column where the price is rising. Individually these lines are not that great...especially the top one... but they are additive when the three cross at the same point. I will have a decision to make when we reach that point.

Good trading

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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A couple of stocks I am currently watching are

Transforce Inc [TFI:TSX]

this is a trucking company whose fortunes should improve on the expense side with the drop in fuel prices...though that does not mean that they might not lose business to customers as some of their business is to do with the O&G sector

Here is a composite of various charts





P&F chart

A very strong chart for over 2 years...climbing in steps in an ascending wedge. This pattern is traditionally bearish and we are testing the support line...so one must show prudence

Trigger chart

A curious chart...in the green circle we see a relatively flat BBwidth. The MACD has a very slight +ve slope but not a sharp one... the Slow Sto is flat though very near the real bullish area of over 80.

Over this time the stock price was rising 5% or so but not without some dips. It seems to be a habit with this stock as it nears all time highs...those dips don't seem to have bothered the indicators...perhaps the latest dip can be seen as a positive event ...now at least.

Ichmoku chart

See how the latest dip approaches the upper boundary of the green cloud then beat a retreat upward.... good news or is it going to make another attack???

The thin red/blue lines inside that circle remain bullish though flat...that huge drop did not cause them to move a muscle...good news.

Both indicators are showing a mildly bearish trend.

On just these TA tests....there is potential here... we could be staging for another jump... or not.

It is just a WATCH at this point


***************************************************************************
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (NWH.UN:TSX)

A mouthful in Company name... this is aREIT that specializes in properties that house medical businesses. Rather unique in the REIT world and supposedly little influenced by outside economy issues.

this stock would be purchased by me for two purposes... For one I like the specialty area...building a niche like that makes it different from other REITS and hence less competition for them so there is capital gain potential.

Secondly, is the dividend as shown in this summary link

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

8.5% or $0.067/share/monthly...not a bad return

But has it been sustainable....big question

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

well look at that for the last 5 years it has paid a monthly dividend without fail and the same value of $0.067/share/monthly.... I like that

Here is a composite of various charts





P&F chart

not a particularly bullish chart though there has been a nice recover since Dec/14. I see a support at $9.20 ... a resistance is harder to spot so I will tentatively go with a diagonal resistance showing currently $9.80

Trigger chart

As you can see in the top blue circle the price is in consolidation following recover from that bottom at $8.40... See how after a run the share price tends to return to the 20daySMA...but it is doing it in a good way....going sideways and letting the 20daySMA come to it.

The indicators are showing the run is over (you also see it in the arc in the upper BB).... again you don't see a drastic fall in the Slow Sto and MACD...they have a lazy -ve slope but remain mildly bullish at this point. The BBwidth on the other hand is falling like a stone...but a major movement in the price won't happen til it reaches near 5 and I would suggest that is 10 business days away.

Ichmoku chart

Nice looking ICHI chart.....see how it has crawled above the red cloud...AND LOOK AT THE DISTANCE BETWEEN the thin red/blue line... it is not going back below any cloud for a long time now.

Those indicators below look pretty good

Again depending on your tolerance for risk...it could be a buy right now (though the run is in consolidation there are no bear indications) or a watch until the BBwidth falls to 5 to see what happens.

I like that dividend but I will wait a few days to see what happens...it is a watch but a good watch.

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  #545 (permalink)
Skeptical
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Do you watch many penny stocks?

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Skeptical View Post
Do you watch many penny stocks?

Yes, I do. But we are not allowed to discuss sub-$1 stocks on futures.io (formerly BMT).

I sort of jumped the gun on [LSG:TSX] as I made a fantasy purchase here when it was $0.98/share but I think BM will forgive me as the stock was in this portfolio a few months ago. now it has jumped to $1.06/share and rising. In my real portfolios I have purchased this stock as I like the way it responds to rising gold prices...but as you may have seen in the past...gold is fickle and can turn around in a heart beat so this will be more of a swing trade than long term.

You have to be very careful in choosing a penny stock.

I have rarely made a successful purchase of an American sub-$5 / share stock... I discovered the reason why and talked about it in my American journal here. American investors treat stocks under $5 like they are garbage relatively speaking compared to Canadian stocks there are very few stocks in the under $5/share range.



If you look at my American portfolio on futures.io (formerly BMT) I don't seem to consider a stock under $10.

Canadian stocks are a lot different... a stock between $1 and $5 is considered to be a maturing stock....sort of like a young adult in maturity.... when they range over $10 they are a maturing stock.

Low Pennies ($0.15 to $0.50 )are babies in Canada... many many in the TSXV and a lot in the TSX. You don't know which ones will survive as often they are start-ups, or new unproven technologies. There are stocks in this range that are worth buying... but you cannot choose them at random (we are not talking day-trading here... anything can happen in a day) for long term hold. In real life, in my 3 Canadian portfolios I have 2 stocks that are in this range. I won't mention names but they are both mining stocks... both are established and now producing mines..... they make money...

One I bought 8 years ago before it became a mine and I bought it based on its drilling records and the amazing %grade of metal in the cores.... on that info the stock soared from $0.20 to $1.20 but it was a roman candle and flared out after reality set in and the investors realized it would be years before the company made money.... it was a heck of a swing play. I am back into it when it fell and leveled off at $0.18/share and increased my holdings at $0.18, $0.20 and $0.23....it is currently about $0.29 after a little more than a one year period.... I have high hopes for this stock and watch for a break out.

The other was a stock worth as much as $9.00 but fell because of infrastructure issues and lack of demand for their metal. It is a metal not common in NA but without demand as it struggles to regain former glory. It has a pretty good stable operating revenue but the cost of solving the infrastructure and mining issues are still high and the relatively low price for the metal makes it difficult to get into the black.... but I am patient and made a small speculative purchase.

The teenagers are the $0.50 - $1.00/share range..... there is more opportunity there if you are skilled fundamentally and able to separate the good from the bad and butt ugly. This is how I found Lakeshore Gold. Many many start-up O&G companies or mines are here.

Using simply TA ... even the charts I have developed and show here ... have limited success when evaluating sub $1 stocks.... they are often not reliable companies and, if the butt ugly type, they can be manipulated heavily.

If I am hunting in the $0.15 - $1.00 I want to see (but not limited to)

1. Some operating revenue.... this eliminates a lot of exploration companies... I don't like these stocks as they are dream sellers and hope their finds get bought out (but the investor often does not benefit from the buyout).

2. Some manageable debt... these are start-up companies so they don't have a lot of revenue... debt is necessary to develop their property/service/commodity. No debt means no activity they can talk a good fight but are not doing anything ....

Ideally you find a company with a reduced debt load with each quarter and an increasing Operating revenue. They don't have to be in the black yet but they are progressing towards it.

These companies are worth investigating further fundamentally then technically.... but those criteria above will filter out the really bad/butt ugly

NEVER look at a stock under $0.15.... and sub-pennies are the worst and a waste of money.... they are for bottom feeders and those are Suckers in the fish world. Don't be one of those "Born every minute...."

Of course what I have discussed here apply to Canadian stocks in the $0.15 - $1 range.... As I said at the beginning.... I have rarely been successful at American stocks under $5.00...never mind under $1.

I won't promote any sub-$1 stock here or in any PM to me but this is my general approach.

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Well well well.... the sky is not falling along with the price of Oil.

Here is the current status of this fantasy portfolio





a really nice turn around, not the least due to the rise of Lakeshore Gold [LSG:TSX]. This will be a swing trade that lasts as long as gold rises... once the gain rises above 20% I will protect it with a trailing Limit Stop Loss.

Looking closely at O&G stocks right now. Perhaps we are seeing an end to the fall of oil prices.... there is lots of opportunity in this sector once the price drop stops.

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Skeptical
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Yes, I do. But we are not allowed to discuss sub-$1 stocks on futures.io (formerly BMT).

I sort of jumped the gun on [LSG:TSX] as I made a fantasy purchase here when it was $0.98/share but I think BM will forgive me as the stock was in this portfolio a few months ago. now it has jumped to $1.06/share and rising. In my real portfolios I have purchased this stock as I like the way it responds to rising gold prices...but as you may have seen in the past...gold is fickle and can turn around in a heart beat so this will be more of a swing trade than long term.

You have to be very careful in choosing a penny stock.

I have rarely made a successful purchase of an American sub-$5 / share stock... I discovered the reason why and talked about it in my American journal here. American investors treat stocks under $5 like they are garbage relatively speaking compared to Canadian stocks there are very few stocks in the under $5/share range.



If you look at my American portfolio on futures.io (formerly BMT) I don't seem to consider a stock under $10.

Canadian stocks are a lot different... a stock between $1 and $5 is considered to be a maturing stock....sort of like a young adult in maturity.... when they range over $10 they are a maturing stock.

Low Pennies ($0.15 to $0.50 )are babies in Canada... many many in the TSXV and a lot in the TSX. You don't know which ones will survive as often they are start-ups, or new unproven technologies. There are stocks in this range that are worth buying... but you cannot choose them at random (we are not talking day-trading here... anything can happen in a day) for long term hold. In real life, in my 3 Canadian portfolios I have 2 stocks that are in this range. I won't mention names but they are both mining stocks... both are established and now producing mines..... they make money...

One I bought 8 years ago before it became a mine and I bought it based on its drilling records and the amazing %grade of metal in the cores.... on that info the stock soared from $0.20 to $1.20 but it was a roman candle and flared out after reality set in and the investors realized it would be years before the company made money.... it was a heck of a swing play. I am back into it when it fell and leveled off at $0.18/share and increased my holdings at $0.18, $0.20 and $0.23....it is currently about $0.29 after a little more than a one year period.... I have high hopes for this stock and watch for a break out.

The other was a stock worth as much as $9.00 but fell because of infrastructure issues and lack of demand for their metal. It is a metal not common in NA but without demand as it struggles to regain former glory. It has a pretty good stable operating revenue but the cost of solving the infrastructure and mining issues are still high and the relatively low price for the metal makes it difficult to get into the black.... but I am patient and made a small speculative purchase.

The teenagers are the $0.50 - $1.00/share range..... there is more opportunity there if you are skilled fundamentally and able to separate the good from the bad and butt ugly. This is how I found Lakeshore Gold. Many many start-up O&G companies or mines are here.

Using simply TA ... even the charts I have developed and show here ... have limited success when evaluating sub $1 stocks.... they are often not reliable companies and, if the butt ugly type, they can be manipulated heavily.

If I am hunting in the $0.15 - $1.00 I want to see (but not limited to)

1. Some operating revenue.... this eliminates a lot of exploration companies... I don't like these stocks as they are dream sellers and hope their finds get bought out (but the investor often does not benefit from the buyout).

2. Some manageable debt... these are start-up companies so they don't have a lot of revenue... debt is necessary to develop their property/service/commodity. No debt means no activity they can talk a good fight but are not doing anything ....

Ideally you find a company with a reduced debt load with each quarter and an increasing Operating revenue. They don't have to be in the black yet but they are progressing towards it.

These companies are worth investigating further fundamentally then technically.... but those criteria above will filter out the really bad/butt ugly

NEVER look at a stock under $0.15.... and sub-pennies are the worst and a waste of money.... they are for bottom feeders and those are Suckers in the fish world. Don't be one of those "Born every minute...."

Of course what I have discussed here apply to Canadian stocks in the $0.15 - $1 range.... As I said at the beginning.... I have rarely been successful at American stocks under $5.00...never mind under $1.

I won't promote any sub-$1 stock here or in any PM to me but this is my general approach.

Thanks for your detailed reply. Some great information.

I actually like those bottom feeding parasites on the ASX, but you need to be careful like always. But if you do good due-diligence and put a bit of work in you can find some high risk plays. Look for low market cap etc. , good management , projects, cash. Allocate 10 or 20k to that portion of the portfolio. If you find 5 potentials trading around 2 cents, buy 200,000 shares in each and if one goes to just 10 cents you have doubled your money , if a couple go bust its doesn't really matter. I know this is not text book investing /trading but it has worked for me every time i do it. Just need patience and to be aware of any changes.

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Skeptical View Post
Thanks for your detailed reply. Some great information.

I actually like those bottom feeding parasites on the ASX, but you need to be careful like always. But if you do good due-diligence and put a bit of work in you can find some high risk plays. Look for low market cap etc. , good management , projects, cash. Allocate 10 or 20k to that portion of the portfolio. If you find 5 potentials trading around 2 cents, buy 200,000 shares in each and if one goes to just 10 cents you have doubled your money , if a couple go bust its doesn't really matter. I know this is not text book investing /trading but it has worked for me every time i do it. Just need patience and to be aware of any changes.

this is not a system I would advocate and frankly if you continue to talk about penny stocks like this you will draw the attention of @Big Mike and you will not be on this website long. I talked about this once here and that is all.

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I will place a limit bid for NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust [NWH.UN:TSX]

I will place a Limit Buy order for 1500 shares of NWH.UN:TSX @ $9.30 which with commissions be about $13,960... I currently have slightly more than $16,000 available

I like its dividend, I like its niche in the REIT sector and with the Canadian government lowering central bank interest levels a 0.25% this should be ok.... the order will be placed in the first 15 mins of the Bell unless it plummets below $9.30 were I would follow it down and grab it at its bottom.

Having a great week.... so far a record gain of over 5.7% wiping out all the red ink...lets hope I keep these gains and maybe increase them more

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Well it was a struggle today but I held onto most of the gains this week to stay in the Black for the first time this month.... here is the chart




As you can see I still have the bid for Northwest Healthcare and it will be active for a while. I think it will drop to the 20daySMA in the near future...so we shall see if I can get the stock there.

I am looking at some very good O&G stocks that look to be bottoming....these are just watches at this point....closely watched by me:

CVE.TO, ERF.TO, CPG.TO, ECA.TO and PGF.TO

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 jackbravo 
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i think you're doing great considering the crazy way the markets have been lately. looks like oil is bouncing a bit. might help.

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i think you're doing great considering the crazy way the markets have been lately. looks like oil is bouncing a bit. might help.

Yeah you are right it is a bit crazy out there.... in my real portfolios I have made a bid to get some Crescent Point Energy [TSX:CPG]. This is a solid stock is a mix of Nat gas and Oil...why it is breaking out along with other oil stocks is a bit of a mystery to me...some doing well NOW after falling about 50% but others are still falling and Oil is still in the mid $40's



But as you see in this chart all my criteria are met in this trigger chart....the Slow Sto having risen nicely above 80, MACD rising and now the BBwidth following suit. I am not putting it into the Fantasy portfolio as I am looking for something <$15 for here and there are several candidates possible.

I really like the dividend which is $0.23/share/month right now

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ok.... this one is for the Fantasy portfolio here... and I am seriously considering it for my real holdings

I have noticed lately that some O&G companies are swimming against the tide of falling oil prices after losing about 40-50% of their share price (Most oil companies, with few exceptions, have lost that amount or more since the fall of oil prices)

I mentioned these companies a few days ago and here they are again: CVE.TO, ERF.TO, CPG.TO, ECA.TO and PGF.TO

So the one I am high on at the moment is Pengrowth Energy Corp [PGF:TSX]

Albeit the fundamental data is pre-oil price slide and it will be interesting to see the next quarterly report to see how their bottom line is affected.... but from the research I have done apparently they have hedged their oil to be sold at about $94 and their natural gas is priced at about 10% above current price through contract.

But if this is true the next financial report won't be all that bad

you can see here the operating revenue and net revenue has been increasing til Sept/14

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information


It also has a very good dividend of $0.04/share/month which it has been paying out since 2013 regularly... it has been in debt for a few years now on a "Lindberg project" that is due to come on line in the coming months

So Fundamentally it is not the greatest ... but technically it is recovering a bit.

Here is the TA





You can see here from about mid-Dec it has started its recovery. It has a triangle quality in its shape... skewed a bit but there is an additional support at $3.35 horizontally which though it failed once recently it rebounded over that line again





It is not the best "trigger" chart at this point... but not bad either

The 50daySMA is acting as a resistance line since mid-Dec... and it may do so again tomorrow. The Slow Sto is rising againand is above 50... the MACD is very close to having a new high and the BBwidth is approaching the baseline for a breakout soon

As it stands the breakout could go anywhere though it has the smallest of advantage to being Bullish at this moment.... that tiny doji from yesterday probably indicates a pullback tomorrow.





mixed reviews in this sentiment chart. The CMF is in the mud right now but on a rebound (mildly bearish)
The RSI is basically flat and below 50...I have more faith in the dotted trend than the solid (neutral bearish)
The ADX DI+/- is still bearish...the green line is not reaching for the red at this point (bearish)





I like this Ichimoku chart. You can see that an attempt is being made to get above the upper red cloud. The distance is getting smaller and smaller with time . You can see in the top circle the thin red line rises above the blue line.... even though share price is rising for last 5 days (bearish but I like the attempt to rise above the clouds.

The onBal Volume is suddenly bullish... the CCI is mildly bullish as well.

All and all if you cancel out bull / bear you well still see a mild bearish leaning

Conclusion

I believe the price will fall lower in the near future but I don't believe another 50% loss is in the offing and recovery is pending .

Here is the daily chart for that last 5 days





You can see a sort of channel with a secondary support at $3.35....I can see that the share price will pull back to the dotted line.

I have an existing order for NotherWest Health but I will make an order for :

Limit buy order for 2000 shares of Pengrowth Energy Corp (PGF:TSX] @$3.35/share


If there is a breakout above $3.60 (which I doubt)...I will chase it and buy... if I am successful I will reduce the number of shares I would buy on the other stock.

Fingers crossed....

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Well that little doji was right and the consensus of being mildly bearish was true





As you can see the price fell to the $3.35 level for a while and has fallen through it now so I can safely say my order for 2000 shares of Pengrowth Energy Corp has been filled.

I will have to modify my order for NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust [NWH.UN:TSX] to about 800 shares since I don't have the capital to purchase 1500 shares anymore.

First leg of my experiment with PGF is complete...now it just has to rise in price again.... it has advanced toward that apex in the triangle so we should know some time next week.

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My order for NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust [NWH.UN:TSX] was due to expire today , so I have cancelled the order and after subtracting the cost of purchasing Pengrowth Energy Corp, I find I have enough cash to purchase 1000 shares of NWH.UN.TO

so I have re-entered an order for

NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT [NWH.UN:TSX] for 1000 shares @ $9.30 valid til Feb 6/15

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What a rollercoaster ride!!! the financial world took a dump on the Canadian markets today... I am back into the red again though there are still 2 days til the week end.





I am happy with my purchases and expect them to perform well in the long term.... but right now I'm getting seasick {sigh}

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 jackbravo 
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it's been rocky.

have you considered using options to leverage your portfolio when you're very sure about an upcoming rise?

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it's been rocky.

have you considered using options to leverage your portfolio when you're very sure about an upcoming rise?

I did consider options a couple of years ago. But I discarded the notion after trying to figure out what it was all about for a month. The problem with leverage is that it works both ways... I can win big when I am right...I lose big when I am wrong. As you can see from my status reports I am not always right, especially in the short term. I am good with that as I have a long term view of things.

I am comfortable with that view. It works for me and even though things are unpredictable, with the stocks I own in these bad times there are buying opportunities for me. I am confident that what I pick will win eventually so I hold when many would sell.

I make a decent income doing long term trading...I understand it and it does not stress me out. Jumping into options would not make my life easier or less stressful. I stick to my knitting.

Similarly I was asked once why I did not sell real estate as it was quite lucrative in Calgary...I know very little about real estate, I don't like being on call 24/7 so I don't miss a sale.... there is enough interest and challenge in long term trading... and I understand that challenge.

I just don't like leveraged products on principle.... I don't like debt either....and I have never in my life blown an account...too much tuition to pay.

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well the price of NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT [NWH.UN:TSX] fell below $9.30 today to end around $9.26 so my order for 1000 shares @ $9.30 will have filled.

this is a terrible week after having a terrific week last week. I am now basically fully invested now with only something like $64 left in cash in this portfolio.

Nothing to do now but wait for a turn around. Canadian markets seem so much more volatile right now...hardly any degree of predictably it seems as far as recovery goes...I like my choices at present and will stick by them for now anyway.

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 jackbravo 
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that's great that you've never blown a live account! beat me!

I've started to get into options recently with my ira account, just basic stuff, selling puts, etc. i've decided to never sell naked calls, which are the very risky strategies that blow people's accounts. it's definitely a different dimension learning options. tastytrade.com has helped a lot. i feel like with options, there's a chance to grow the account 20-50%, using the leverage. we'll see.

i've learned a lot from your analysis in this journal, especially using the BBwidth, which I never knew about before, and wanted to say thanks!

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that's great that you've never blown a live account! beat me!

I've started to get into options recently with my ira account, just basic stuff, selling puts, etc. i've decided to never sell naked calls, which are the very risky strategies that blow people's accounts. it's definitely a different dimension learning options. tastytrade.com has helped a lot. i feel like with options, there's a chance to grow the account 20-50%, using the leverage. we'll see.

i've learned a lot from your analysis in this journal, especially using the BBwidth, which I never knew about before, and wanted to say thanks!

Thanks for the positive feedback on my TA. I wish you luck with your venture into Options. It takes years to get really good at doing something... and I am not prepared or willing to spend that time when I already am comfortable with my current trading approach.

But that is me... I like to specialize in one aspect of anything I do.

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What a rocky week!!!!

By midweek I was down about 2.7% ... I was even further down yesterday... but today I am still down but at least by a normal amount instead of disaster.




I am fully invested now in this portfolio....we shall see how things progress

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Well now....the price of oil jumps up and Canadian Stocks take off

I have not posted mid-week status yet but it is looking like a record week. I am up over 2% now instead of down a bit. Pengrowth Energy [PGF:TSX] purchased with great timing.... I am up over $1500.00 on this stock in 2 days

Wheeeeeeee......... (well at least it is not YIKES....not yet anyway)

In the stock Canadian stock market most Oil companies getting a shot in the arm.

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well such a roller coaster....Today was a bit of a down day but overall this week looks to be positive.

The price of oil has fallen back to just south of $50. I find it curious in Calgary that in the last 3 days the price of gasoline has jumped from about $0.74/litre to $0.92... a more than 20% jump in price today in a couple of days. I am not sure how to read this .... if it means anything at all.... there will be howls of protests over price gouging...so I don't know if this portends higher oil prices or if this is some kind of marketing ploy....I believe it to be the latter as I believe North America is awash with supply.

Anyway, this week in the Canadian market has been pretty good and should continue to Friday .... after that who knows but the trend in the graph below, though choppy, is going in the right direction



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  #566 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well we keep the mid week gains and even added another $100 in the last 2 days...Our gains were much better actually but for a pull back in the Enbridge Income fund (not serious) of about $2000 over the week





The big gainers this week has been Lundin Mining which has seen its losses cut nicely by regaining about $2000 this week.... actually this is probably one which I would soon be selling (next week or so) because I could use that money elsewhere.

Pengrowth Energy Corp has proved a nice recent buy gaining about $2500 this week and Chorus Aviation gained another $800.

hopefully this trend continues...looking good so far.

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  #567 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

right now I am fully invested as far as this fantasy portfolio is concerned. But this does not mean I am complacent about it.

I am constantly looking for better opportunities. I must free up some cash and as you have seen in my twice weekly updates the weakest company in the portfolio is Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN]





this chart is very revealing and I wish I paid attention to it on in early January. The blue arrow shows where the bottom fell out of this stock for a while... we shall look at my trigger chart in a minute but let us disect this chart for a while as there is lots of stuff in it.

I have had lots of hopes for this stock for quite a while... after all it is a profitable base metal mine (lead, zinc, copper) ... in times of bad metal prices ... and bad economy where manufacturing struggles. What goes through my mind is... wow... just this about how this stock will rise in good times.... rising base metal prices

So even though I was losing money on the stock I held onto it because I am always looking long term.

It is like a comment Wayne Gretzy made when asked why he was so successful as a hockey player... this is the essence of his comment... he said that he did not go to where the puck current was, he would go to where the puck was going to be.

I think this has to be your mindset if you are into long term trading.

That does not mean you hang onto a sinking ship forever believing that the stock will recover... odds are you should not have bought that stock in the first place.

So looking at this chart you might say... why in Hockey pucks did you hang onto this stock when it fell so hard???

Good question it will be answered later when I discuss the trigger chart.

Looking at this chart several things jump out at you....On early January when the fall began that broad resistance line looked like a solid support... we were above that support so it did not look like a bad situation.. it just looked like a normal pullback after testing the dotted resistance with support from the diagonal resistance.

But the roof fell in (rather the floor collapsed and the stock fell through that support ...now a resistance.

As I said we will discuss why I did not make a panic sale of the stock later.... I hung on and the stock has recovered.

It has passed through a resistance (now support) at $4.90ish the dotted line represents a minor resistance (now support) at $5.15.... NOW we are facing the monster resistance range from $5.45 to $5.50

We are in a bullish run currently... notice the upper Left "P&F pattern" ... An ascending triple top breakout is pretty bullish all right... the computer that Stockcharts uses predicts a rise to $6.75.

It may reach that level BUT I see at least 3 clear resistance levels AFTER the monster on that would have to be negotiated before that would happen.... I doubt it will be a linear rise.

I do expect the share price to attack the broad ranged resistance... if it were to pass that, it has tough sledding to get to $5.85 and it can fail any place in between $5.55 to $5.85.

But I expect it to get to and challenge $5.45........................

So what do I do???? That will be discussed after the "trigger chart" in the Conclusion

Let's look at the Trigger chart (never...NEVER... make decisions on the basis of a single chart... look for confirmations)





The Blue arrow shows the point of the decline....January 1.

Did I expect a breakout there to the positive.... NO!!! I hoped it would be .... if you look at the Slow Sto and MACD they were quite bullish until then... the BBwidth was pretty flat...a slight rise over the holidays but not sharp.... so No. it would have been nice but the BBwidth showed no sharp positive move to compliment the MACD/Slow Sto (that is why I name it my trigger chart... the BBWidth is the trigger)

So the share price did the normal thing after that failure...it fell back to the 20day SMA. the red circle show clues to the fall in the decline of the MACD and Slow Sto.... but things still looked fine... the 50daySAMlooked like a support too.

then the bottom fell out... I missed the first decline but the following drop was not something I would have responded to....Why??? Look at the green circle...

See the plummet BELOW the lower Bollie... that is over reaction to whatever caused the fall...the share price should pullback into the bollie envelope.... and it did as expected 3 days later.

Now is this a guaranteed bottom...heck no.... it could be just a rest and fall further.... so you watch your indicators

the Slow Sto climbs a bit... as does the MACD later...and the stock starts its march to the 20daySMA which is normal in a bottom recovery... the clincher is in the Blue circle... see the BBwidth/MACD "pinch"

Is the stock now bullish now.... nopes... it is in a decent positive consolidation phase but look at the BBwidth it has to fall to about 10-15 before you can get a break up or down... It is uncertain at this point.

Things look good...Slow Sto and MACD rising...but unpredictable at this point.

Conclusion

Ok...this is the situation as it stands now.

I need to free up money to buy a different stock (I will talk about that one in another post).

So do I sell outright??? I could do that but I would hate to see it rise further after the sale.
Do I hang onto it still?? Not really, potentially I could lose all the recovery gains.

the way I deal with this problem is to use a limit Stop Sell order and if it rises I will follow it UNTIL it drops into range and is sold. This way I give a chance for future profits while protecting myself from losing most of the gains I have made (or in this case protecting it from increasing losses)

You will note that I don't us any form of stop loss when I buy a stock.... I am pretty confident (not infallible but confident) in my purchases for the long term.

where do I set the limit stop loss range.... I use an intra-day chart for that





you can see on an intraday chart there is a resistance at about $5.20... it is being challenged now. I see decent support around $5.05... but nickels bother me... often a sipke will fall to the nickel level and bounce back... so I will set my stop a cent below and range down to $5.00

SO I will enter at Monday's bell a Limit Stop loss Sell order for 3000 shares of Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] valid in the price range of $5.00 to $5.04


there won't be a time limit in reality but most orders have a life of one month in reality... I doubt it will take a month to decide to sell ... if it breaks that $5.20 current resistance we will trail it by about $0.10-0.15 as it rises.

Now you know what I propose doing .... AND WHY....

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  #568 (permalink)
 mdsvtr 
Memphis,TN
 
 
Posts: 232 since Sep 2010

Good evening Underexposed and other traders following this thread,
a fellow member made the following comment...
" i've decided to never sell naked calls, which are the very risky strategies that blow people's accounts. it's definitely a different dimension learning options "

And I was wondering if someone could please elaborate on the reason why selling " Naked " Calls is so much more risky then it is to sell ' Naked ' Puts ?

My thinking behind it is because a stock can go to $0 , and because of this, the risk is that much greater, since selling Naked Calls is a Bearish strategy and you are expecting the stock to drop ?

I have also noticed that the Margin to sell naked calls vs naked puts is a lot higher as well


Thank you Underexposed for this thread,
Learning a lot and enjoy following your trade/commentary

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  #569 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


mdsvtr View Post
Good evening Underexposed and other traders following this thread,
a fellow member made the following comment...
" i've decided to never sell naked calls, which are the very risky strategies that blow people's accounts. it's definitely a different dimension learning options "

And I was wondering if someone could please elaborate on the reason why selling " Naked " Calls is so much more risky then it is to sell ' Naked ' Puts ?

My thinking behind it is because a stock can go to $0 , and because of this, the risk is that much greater, since selling Naked Calls is a Bearish strategy and you are expecting the stock to drop ?

I have also noticed that the Margin to sell naked calls vs naked puts is a lot higher as well


Thank you Underexposed for this thread,
Learning a lot and enjoy following your trade/commentary

Hmmmm.... I do NOT discuss or want to discuss options or anything regarding naked calls or whatever in this thread. Please take such a discussion to a more appropriate thread.

My journals are strictly for discussion the buying/selling of equities for long or short terms.

I have no expertise in the area of Puts or Calls... naked or otherwise and don't want a discussion on this in my journals...

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  #570 (permalink)
 mdsvtr 
Memphis,TN
 
 
Posts: 232 since Sep 2010

no problem at all,
I will post in a different thread the question

thank you for responding, and I look forward to continuing to follow your thread

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  #571 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well it came close...selling Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN]... today the price fell to $5.06 before rising to $5.11.





In that orange circle it still looks like that 50daySMA is a resistance and the stock price is positioned for a positive breakout still but that could go sour... the MACD and Slow Sto still look fine... the BBwidth has stopped falling.... It is not really low enough for a normal breakout but it could happen.

So the upshot is that the company's stock could break out any time... However my gut feeling is that it will drop below $5.04 tomorrow and it will sell.

Now...I will show you the trigger chart of the company I want to buy to replace it,

Black Diamond Group [BdI:TSX]

here is the chart





I was going to buy it for real today but it got away from me for a 15% gain today....(@#!!%%) But look at the orange circle..... See how high it is above the upper bollie???.... it should pull back a dollar to about $11.00 tomorrow.... If it does not...then it would be worth chasing it... but I think I could get it cheaper than its current price... I cannot get it in my fantasy portfolio because I don't have the money yet and who knows...Lundin might take off too.

I am patient.

Why do I like Black Diamond Group when the price has dropped from $34.00 to $10.00 in the last 10 months???

This is one of the best companies when it comes to temporary infrastructure with a good portion of its business (but not limited to) coming from the O&G industry.

this is a list of projects from their website

Black Diamond Limited

To me this sudden rise is a sign confirming other signs that the O&G business is reviving and the fall in oil price is at or nearing an end.

So we shall see how things develop with respect to these two companies

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  #572 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well As I expected... the limit stop-loss triggered at $5.01 which is where it opened to large volume. It almost opemed below the lower limit of the stop loss range.



So I have money to spend.


BDI also performed as expected with a $1 pullback. Always look at the position of the price relative to the bollies.... above or below the bollie limits will, withing 3-4 days pull back into the bollie envelope




This may not be a bottom yet...I will monitor BDI to see how low it will go and try to grab it there.... uncertain at present.

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  #573 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well There is about an hour left in the trading day and I want BDI.to... I have about $15,000 from the sale of Lundin Mines

this is the current status on an L2 intraday chart



I will put in a bid for 1000 shares of Black Diamond Group [TSX:BDI] @ $11.45/share


EDIT (about 20 mins later)

I would have got my bid... I liked the way the price was tailing the upper bollie and as you can see it has a bit of a breakout going... how long it will last but I now own 1000 shares of BDI.TO @ $11.45


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  #574 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well this is the start of another sterling week if it continues to perform along this trend





Nothing to change for now since buying BDI.TO..... making over 1% in just 2 days is a great start. Not sure what I will do with the change At cash... I could use it to add to Lakeshore Gold but I am not sure Gold will continue to climb and this may be the next stock to be put under the limit stop-loss spotlight until it sells. but it is premature to do that right now.


We shall see how the week plays out.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Another great week....So far things are ticking over nicely...BDI Corp has been a great addition to this portfolio... Lundin Mining has recovered a bit but it was going nowhere for a long time.

here is the status




I am finding no problems identifying opportunity in the Canadian market...wish I had the same success in the US market.

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  #576 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

here is the status





We are ticking on all cylinders here... the increase in cash comes from stock dividends. We are on track for another banner week, I am going to have to adjust my Y axis on that chart soon at this rate.

If you have been following my posts in my American portfolio thread you will read that I have replaced the CMF indicator with Force Index(100) I am testing out this indicator and feel it is a keeper (reasons in the other thread.)

I will be testing each stock with the Force Index indicator and note any problems but I am pretty happy with the results here so far.

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  #577 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
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Underexposed View Post
... the increase in cash comes from stock dividends...

Indeed, something I always underestimate the importance of.

Travel Well
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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


ratfink View Post
Indeed, something I always underestimate the importance of.

Yes, I agree. To me stocks that give good dividends also stand up well during bad times and can be an income source in retirement years.

I have in reality 2 portfolios that are tax sheltered... a Registered Retired Saving Plan (RRSP) and Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA).

These are the 2 accounts in Canada where you can avoid or defer taxes on income.

The RRSP has been around for about 40 years now and is the main reason I was able to retire a little over 10 years ago. You get a tax break on any money deposited into this account and I started in my late 20's and I knew at the time that I would not ever get a company pension as I was changing jobs back then every 2-3 years so I decided that this account would be my pension. I donated the max allowable and for most of that time it was in GIC investment certificates but now it is all equities most of which generate dividends. At age 71 I will convert it to a Registered Income Fund (RIF) which is still tax sheltered but the government requires a drawdown of about 5% initially but increases with age. that drawndown money is taxed ... this does not bother me as I generate well over that in annual gains anyway though it will increase my taxes.

The TFSA is a beauty and only about 6 years old. You can only contribute $5500/year annually and there is no tax break on the deposit.... here I have 100% in high paying dividends and the value of this account has doubled in 5 years.

the unique feature of the TFSA is that you can withdraw the money at any time AND PAY NO TAX on the withdrawn money... also in the next calendar year you can replace that withdrawn money and there is no penalty for doing so.

Let us say you need $1000.00 monthly and your dividends within the TFSA are $1000.00/month. You could withdraw this money each month and because you spend it quickly there is little or no tax on money generated on the withdrawn money. Then in the next year you can contribute $5500 (normal contribution) + $12,000 (Money to replace the withdrawn money). This will be put into high paying dividends as well... increasing the dividends generated... allowing you to take out more money/month if you wish. Pretty sweet.

anyway that is the goal for that account.

Here is the dividend record for this fantasy account... you can see that they represent about 2.7% gains for the year I have had the account in operation.






Yep, I pay attention to dividends

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  #579 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

this is going to be another really great week.... I don't expect it to hold but BDI.TO has jumped from the gate this morning and is up $1.00 so far this morning....nice timing for that one.

All this good news though is a bit worrying. I can count on the fingers of two hands the number of years in the last 10 where I have started the year with great gains....only to watch them disappear in April - June. Then I wait til Fall until the market for my stocks pick up again.

This is not good...I have to change that some how. We have the financial markets being rattled by Greece right now. Oil has plummeted in price. Yet this portfolio (as well as my real portfolios) is performing well. My American fantasy portfolio is trading water but I am just a toddler in understanding the American market so at least I am not losing a lot and have hopes for the future.

I think the solution is one which I have already used....I should protect my gains with a rather generous Limit Stop-loss. I don't want it so tight that it will trip on normal fluctuations ... just there to protect against a plunge. I will also broaden the range of that limit stop-loss.... instead of a 5% of the share price I will make it 10%... most of the time it will not pass through the selling range without stopping but this will give it a better chance to sell in the event of a bad drop.

I will think on this a bit for a while and post what I decide later

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  #580 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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You are wise to take precautions.

However, remember that "A bull market climbs a wall of worry."

Translation: bad news is good; good news is bad. Well, sort of, anyway, some of the time....

And more for the market as a whole, than for an individual stock. But still....

Bob.

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  #581 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


bobwest View Post
You are wise to take precautions.

However, remember that "A bull market climbs a wall of worry."

Translation: bad news is good; good news is bad. Well, sort of, anyway, some of the time....

And more for the market as a whole, than for an individual stock. But still....

Bob.

well wisdom comes from knocks on the head... I have lost a lot of money in the past by reveling in the glory of great returns early.

One becomes complacent, thinking you have mastered this game.... but then the market corrects a little and you feel it is natural (and it usually is) but you start to not notice small corrections... and a month goes by and suddenly you realize you have lost a lot of your previous gains.

This is mainly a long term trader malady. We can be cursed with the sin of ignoring a stock in a large portfolio for a while... especially if it was doing well. Daytrader has a much better handle on their stocks as there are usually fewer of them.

I have made my decisions on setting of the limit Stop-loss orders.... they will be revealed at the end of the trading day with the Week end financial status report.

BDI has gained $1.60 so far today (about 12%)....I expect a bit of pullback next week as it is over the upper BB... But certainly timed that pick nicely

BDI.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

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  #582 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

EDIT: Sorry...fat fingers..... this was a duplicate of the previous post

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  #583 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well another stellar week

Here is the status report




A nice 2.28% gain this week...As you can see I have set Limit Stop-loss orders to protect these gains. They will be loosely trailing if the prices rise.

Let's see... almost an 8% gain in 2 months... trending for a 46% gain for the year.... Hahahaha...well we can dream anyway.

My record return which happened in 2009 when there was recovery from the crash was 37% after living expenses. Yeah I was higher than a kite then but haven't come close to that mark since.

I think this will be a lot tougher market to navigate this year.... but then by journaling here I have discovered a few techniques and had an attitude change to selling stocks so....who knows...might do it.... worth a try anyway

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  #584 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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I noticed the other day that you had hit "Market Wizard" (red name ) status.

This means that you are both one of the more prolific posters on futures.io (formerly BMT), and also, more importantly, one of those with the highest number of "Thanks," compared to the entire population of members. Which is a rough, but reasonably accurate, measure of the value that the community places on your work.

There aren't usually more than 20 or so that are currently active at any one time.

So, congratulations. People like you here. And what you are doing, too.

Bob.

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 Big Mike 
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It's not total thanks received but a formula including number of thanks per post, popularity of thread view, activity on the forum, etc

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 Cashish 
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Big Mike View Post
It's not total thanks received but a formula including number of thanks per post, popularity of thread view, activity on the forum, etc

Hey Big Mike


bobwest View Post
So, congratulations. People like you here. And what you are doing, too.

I agree @bobwest

what does @Big Mike know about it!


Underexposed View Post
I think this will be a lot tougher market to navigate this year.... but then by journaling here I have discovered a few techniques and had an attitude change to selling stocks so....who knows...might do it.... worth a try anyway

",,,,People like you here.,,,,"

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

@bobwest , @Big Mike , @Cashish ... Thanks for the nice comments on my change of status. I was as surprised as anyone... at first when I saw my name highlighted in red, I wondered what I had done wrong it did not register with me.

My readership in this journal has increased pretty dramatically in the last 4 months which leads me to wonder why it is:

1. my talking about the Canadian market place? (hahaha...I have demonstrated my lack of understanding of the American equities over and over again in my other journal...though I have not lost much money in that fantasy portfolio.

2. My discussion about long term swing and investment trading (I know there is not a lot of discussion about that here.

3. My use of indicators and description of how I choose or reject them as well as interaction inferences between them.

4. My analysis strategy in general....laying out my various charts, mixing in a bit of FA, and more importantly announcing my decisions usually the day before...not 20/20 hindsight

I also wonder about the national make-up of my readers. Am I writing to mainly Canadians, Americans and Europeans... I think I get an equal representation across all countries with a bit of a bias to Canada.

I used to think that TA/FA was TA/FA and it did not matter what country's stock market you chose... the lessons learned in one market could be applied to all. My Struggle all my investment life with American stocks and revelations in my American journal shows me this is not necessarily true... though I do believe my approach to TA would generally apply... but that is only part of the equation.

Anyways...thanks to all who thanked me and brought me to this point...much appreciated

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  #588 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I mentioned earlier that I would post charts and comments on all the fantasy stocks based on my new sentiment chart replacing CMF indicator with the Force Index(100) indicator.

Also you probably notices that I placed the Parabolic Sar in the Trigger chart but never really talked about it... I do look at it occasionally. I think it could be useful in a swing trade by determining when to buy (short) and when to sell(cover) but I have not done a whole lot of study on this. I like it to be in concert with Bollinger bands.... I find that when the Upper Parabolic Sar strikes the price line from above in the throat of a Bollie Squeeze it usually means a positive breakout is near... similarly when the lower Par Sar does the same thing then it is a sign that the stock will plummet.... it is not very reliable otherwise I find.

So along with the replacement of CMF with Force(100) I will migrate the Par sar and add Bollies to the Sentiment chart.

let us see how that works out


Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NIF.UN]





ok... face it...I did not add this stock to the portfolio because of its growth potential.... this is a zinc refiner whose lucrative contract runs out in a year...now personally I wonder... there are only about 4 smelters of Zinc across Canada... Is this company going to mothball after this contract??? I find it hard to believe as it is the only one in east of Ontario... there are lots of mines out there... but because they are basically committed to a project that is to end next year they have to give a negative view of the future and hence that was the reason for the drop in price.

SO what happened.... nothing to the dividend... it is still $0.04/share/month or a yield of 17.9%

We bought this stock here in mid January.... we get our first dividend next week and for 5000 shares we will score a $200 dividend and it will be collected every month from now on....and in just a little over one month we have made about 7% in capital gain

Look at the chart... a lot of mud there is it not...but that is because of the one event.... an over-reaction in my opinion... YOU BUY IT FOR THE DIVIDEND... and it was a heck of a buy IMHO.

see how that Force(100) indicator is steadily lessening...I view this as bullish.

see the jump in price....high above the upper bollie and see it moving inside the Bollie envelope in a horizontal way...very nice...

See the nice ... again almost linear rise in the RSI(30)...from under 20 to over 50... this is quite bullish to me

See the bullish cross of the DI+ through the DI-.... I wish I could get rid of the ADX black line as I find it basically useless ... so smoothed to death.

NO reason to change anything wrt this stock except buy more but 5000 shares is a pretty decent buy in this size of portfolio.


Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG]





this is a dicey hold because it is soooooo dependent on the price of Gold.... gold has declined but see how this stock... though ragged is still moving sideways into a BB tunnel...the Par Sar is in the tunnel but so far is not tipping its hand.

the Force(100)looks stable to me..even a slight rise if that means anything ....Bullish neutral right now...bullish for being green.... neutral for basically being flat.

Same for the RSI... mildly bullish but neutral as it is flat

the DI+/- look bullish...the green and red lines have a slight divergence

I have protected all stocks with a limit Stop Loss... this could be one to sell if gold plunges hard.


Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:PGF]





this is a vulnerable choice and dependent on the price of Oil... Apparently it has hedged its oil and gas sales a near market prices of a couple of months ago and has a new project coming on line... so I think the risk with the stock is justified.

In the blue circle you see the price declining.... BUT that is normal... it is in consolidation for the most of this month... during this time the price usually gravitates to the 20day SMA... and it is doing this in a great way... moving sideways

The Force(100) is fine and reasonably flat though it has a slight decline to it.

the RSI and Di+/- is pretty neutral too as the green/red lines are pretty parallel

This is another vulnerable stock depending a bit on the price of oil to give it a market lift... as I said it seems to be financially fine due to its hedges...but most traders don't think of that IMHO.


Enbridge Income Fund Holdings [TSX:ENF]





the Chart looks like waves on the ocean... slightly higher highs and except for last Friday the lows were rising as well

the Force(100) could not be stronger unless it was rising

the RSI is mildly bearish because of its decline but it is not under 50... yet

the ADX is mildly bears as the DI+/- are converging slightly.

Again a good oil stock with a good dividend ... in consolidation... vulnerable to oil prices.


Chorus Aviation Inc Class B [TSX:CHR/B]





could there be a more bullish stock that slight decline just brought the share price back into the BB envelope.

no worries here IMHO.


Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT [TSX:NWH/UN]





this is the Par SAR I like....both bull and bear as shown by the blue arrows... it is hits in the throat of a BB squeeze that I pay attention to.

the Force(100) has been steadily rising and now peaking into the green.

the RSI has a nice bullish rise and the DI +/- has finally stopped "chaining" (my term for crossing/recrossing) indecision... this is full bullish now

A nice hold now....dicey when I bought it .... back then I liked the \Business... a REIT for medical "malls" so-to-speak... stable clients and growing.


Black Diamond Group [TSX:BDI]





this was a bit of a gamble on bottoming oil prices, I'll admit but I have liked this company for a long time and it has lost 2/3 of its share price. It provides temporary shelters mainly to the O&G sector.

the Force(100) looks increasingly Bullish... the RSI is now full Bullish

See that tiny bullish cross in the DI+/-... not definitive yet but combined with other indicators I like its looks


Conclusion

I think I have pretty nice suite of long term holds... I think Force(100) belongs in my sentiment chart.... the indicator is sooooo easy to ready and not many (if any) difficulties.

I won't change anything unless I lose a stock to the Stop Limit Loss.

comments welcome.

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  #589 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Just a note to say that I am taking a breather and traveling south to visit my son, daughter-in-law and grandson.

I will be back on this site as of Saturday... it is just a short vacay.

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  #590 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I am back from my short holiday in the USA...the exchange rate on the Canadian dollar was obscene at $1CDN = about $0.80US

Had a nice time in Las Vegas ... My son and daughter-in-law live in California and and brought my grandson with them. It was fun going to events with them though they had to be kid friendly. My grandson is quite a treat and though 2 years old has a pretty good demeanor. Walking through a casino area he as excited by the flashing lights of the slots and attracted several smiles as he did his little dance as he walked... I told people he had just won a jackpot which drew several laughs.

But now it is back to home and it seems like a dream in a way.

But I did not worry about stocks while I was away. Let us see how we fared during my absence from the market.





We lost a bit over the week but not serious. We should not expect to reel off 2+% profits every week.

We tripped 2 stop losses shown in the above report.

Both are Oil &Gas related. Enbridge Income Fund and Pengrowth Corp. were profitable Pengrowth as a swing trade and Enbridge Income fund @ about 6 months is more of a long term play for me.

Here is the company records for transactions in this portfolio on these companies.



As you can see we have solid profits as opposed to the loss the first time we tried Pengrowth Energy Corp.

There are also dividends to consider.... Very substantial for ENF too bad we sold before the ex-dividend date or we would have had one more dividend for March... like we have pending for Pengrowth




Are we going to forget about these stocks??? Nopes... we shall monitor them over time and when there is a nice breakout again...I will look to be getting them again.

Lots of cash generated by these sales.... will be looking for somewhere to park it in the near futre.

Nice to be back

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  #591 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have ignored this journal for a while and spent most of my time over in the American version of my journal.

Here is the status in this mid week



As you can see we have a big chunk of money to invest as a result of the stop-loss trips last week. I may have set those stops to fine so I will review those tickers before looking elsewhere.

Small loss so far but hardly serious.

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  #592 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well this has not been a good week on Canadian markets. We lost about 207 points on the week the majority of which happened today.

But the limited stop - losses did their job and we lost our holdings in Lakeshore Gold and Chorus Aviation as can be seen in the following charts









As you can see from my company transaction records you can see that as far as LSG is concerned this swing trade basically recovered the losses of the first time we purchased shares in this company.

As far as Chorus Aviation is concerned... this is also the second time we have played this stock... successful not only in capital gain each time but also we have gained about another $300 in dividends ... we get one more payment of $114 in a couple of weeks





So now you will see we have a substantial cash balance in this account We are over 50% in cash at the moment. This actually reflects my real portfolios as well. I have learned to do this by posting in this journal. In the past I have rode out losses after early month gains. I will be reviewing all stocks now as well as the TSX to judge when to spend this cash...I am not in a hurry to do so at present.



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  #593 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have been thinking about this current market. As a long term trader, you like the market in general to be bullish. It has been such until the latter half of 2014 when the price of oil started its fall.

This has not had the effect on the American markets as much as it has on the Canadian stocks. Canada is basically commodity driven and right now commodities are not doing so hot. The metals/mining sector suck (I cannot understand why gold price is doing what it does.) , the price of oil is half of what it was 6 months ago, another crisis in the beef industry with 2 cattle found to have mad cow disease (though it was found before the cattle made it into the food chain, the forestry sector is in a downturn.... the list goes on.... with the service sector to these commodities suffering as well.

This of course will not last forever and buying opportunities for long term trading will abound in the future.... but not right now. In the past I tended to hunker down with my stocks ... not selling and deciding that it may turn around... losing gains I had made earlier.... and then some.... I am getting tired of this




you can see the instability in the TSX with the rapid advance / declines in the last 3-4 months. Right now we seem to be between two large resistance/support bands and I have an over active imagination to visualize them in this chart.... they are more bands than lines. The dotted green line is a potential support but I doubt it will hold for long.





This chart shows the beginnings of a bearish dive.... the 200day SMA seems to be a support but I doubt that will hold long. The value of the TSX is below the lower bollie so there may be a pullback but don't be fooled this index is in for a fall for the near future..... See the Slow Sto/MACD they are falling but the BBwidth is rising... the fall has just started





this chart is pretty neutral in a bearish way for both Force(100) and RSI(30)... the DI+/- shows the beginnings of a bearish cross





the Ichimoku chart looks potentially bad.... the thin red line has crossed the thin blue one... not serious yet but just starting.... the share price will probably challenge the green cloud below soon and that edge is a support that corresponds to that in the P&F chart..... the Onbal vol is neutral bear... the CCI is full on bear.


Conclusion

The TSX is in for a fall this week and perhaps longer. I am in no rush to buy new shares and have the stocks that are left protected with limit stop-loss orders.

My future plays in this portfolio will be swing trades and BY THAT I define these trades as lasting 1-4 weeks at most.

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  #594 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

ok...so I have decided to make 1-4 week swing plays.... NOTE: this would be a swing trade as defined for a long term trader. The term swing trade is tossed about on this site often but is usually not defined by the writer.

A swing trade to a day trader could be a trade that lasts 2-4 hours ... a long term investment could be one that lasted the whole day to the same trader. Then you have those that consider a swing trade one that lasts a day or two.

It can mean anything to anyone but when they talk about it they should define its time frame IMHO. To any trader a swing trade is just a shorter time frame than their normal long term hold. In my case my long term holds are of the order of 2 months to a year or more...you can see that in the history of this journals.

I don't mean trades that you bail out of because they did not proceed as planned and you get out of them to preserve your capital before the losses are too great... those are just corrections of a bad trade. A swing trade is is a shorter trade that results in a smaller than normal profit... somewhere between 3-10% would be about right for me.

I am not good at such trades at present... I prefer developing longer term trades but I do know what I would be looking for. You don't just enter a trade at random and hope it works out to make a swing trade. That is a recipe for losses IMHO.

To me there are 2 situations that I want to find:

1. the share price is approaching a bollie squeeze.

This is the same as I use to find a long term trade as described in previous posts in this journal.

The difference is that I do not give a toss as to whether or not the target stock is financially stable or not. You will note that most if not all of my previous picks are biased to stocks with increasing revenues and zero/reducing debt. I don't care about such a criteria in a swing trade. Any stock can rise or fall on some kind of news and are independent of its financial stability.

Such stocks may be entering a merger, have a product potentially being approved (drugs are great for this), have a product viewed as innovative or be the right product for the right time. This attractions may wear off with time.... or not (many short term swing prospects can develop into long term holds... you just don't know at the time.

here is an example of what I would be looking for





here you look for the "trigger" the same as I have touted here for a year now... rising MACD and Slow Sto and then the "trigger" of the sudden positive slope to the BBwidth.... that is the easy part for me.

The more difficult is the sale (emotional issues).... but the way to do it is when the MACD, Slow STO AND BBWidth plateau... in the above example the dotted red line is probably were I would think about exiting and the solid red line is where I would do it. and you make about 18% on a 12 day swing.... pretty good for the girls I go out with

Here is another example.... same entry but different exit criteria. This happens when you find the price above the upper Bollie





I have talked before about how it is unusual for a share price to be above the upper Bollie for more than 5 days. So in the example above you watch for the normal exit as described in the previous chart....but when the price hangs above the upper bollie for 5 days it is time to get out of the pool.... if you wait for the normal exit (dotted red line) you gain very little and could lose profit.... this would be a very nice 5 day trade at 15.5%


1. the share price has fallen hard and you get a MACD/BBwidth squeeze

Here we are predicting a bottom...or at least a solid rest.... here is an example





it is my experience that when you find this MACD/BBwidth squeeze that the share price moves toward the 20daySMA afterward.... often as in the larger featured one in the chart... the share price also falls below the lower Bollies....

This MACD/BBwidth squeeze happens more often than you think but I have been reluctant to act on it as I don't do such short swings normally.

here is another example with TD Bank... a long term play from the past in this portfolio.






See the completed example in the pink circle.... almost exactly the same as the first example.... NOW look at what is going on right now!!! The set up is there for another MACD/BBwidth swing.

It is not perfect...yet...... I would want to see the Slo Sto rise a bit....

let's watch this another day and I may try this out in this portfolio... it is an expensive stock but I have the coin to try it out... and I would use a limit stop-loss after purchase to protect myself if it was just a rest.


EDIT: that last chart is NOT recent .... it was from Dec /14

Here is how it worked out later in the month





It did work as I described and happened again a few weeks later.

{sigh} I was goinf to play the swing until I suddenly realized the chart was not current and is the reason for the deleted post below....I will look for a current possible now.....sorry about that...

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  #595 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

hmmmmm, At this rate I will be 100% cash in this portfolio by Wednesday. Monday was another bad day on the TSX losing just short of 100 points today.

In the process, it took out 2 of the last 3 stocks in this portfolio... Black Diamond Group [BDI:TSX] and NorthWest Healthcare REIT [NWH.UN:TSX]

we took a profit on both trades which are swing trades lasting less than 2 month. Here is the history for the trades for these companies





we still have dividends to collect later this month to add to their totals as they were purchased before the ex-dividend date for Feb.

Here are the intra-day charts that tripped the stop loss orders for both these companies








As I described earlier the TSX has not finished its downward slide.... If you look at my American journal you will find that it is so far up over 1% this week (status will be reported Wednesday)....go figure!!!

This is not a fun time to trade for me...I do not trade in shorts...perhaps I should look at bear ETFs and trade shorts that way... not something I like to do.

I think it will be better to look for swing plays but not easy given the decline in prices to find these plays.

BUT I have preserved capital...which is something I have struggled with for years. Using these limit stop-loss orders take a lot of the emotion out of the sales for me...I have tons of money now for future investments where in past years I would have frittered it away on downturns and frankly it has come about through maintaining this journal and has carried over to my real portfolios as well where I am 80% in cash now.

Anyway, I will look for swing plays and devote more attention to my American journal where I think I finally have a grasp on American stocks now

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  #596 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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nice work improving your method. always satisfying. I was thinking about a trailing stop loss for you. Do you think something like a 30 ma to use as a stop loss would work? Since most pullbacks occur to the 20 MA, maybe trailing a stop just outside of that can become a perfunctory way of maintaining your trailing stops.

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  #597 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


jackbravo View Post
nice work improving your method. always satisfying. I was thinking about a trailing stop loss for you. Do you think something like a 30 ma to use as a stop loss would work? Since most pullbacks occur to the 20 MA, maybe trailing a stop just outside of that can become a perfunctory way of maintaining your trailing stops.

IF you had such a stop-loss based on a 30daysma might work. I did at one time use a 9daySMA as a stop-loss for when I wanted to sell. The Stop-loss trip point was based on the previous day's value.

if the previous day has a 9 daySMA of "X" this will be the stop-loss for the present day

if the previous day has a 30 daySMA of "Y" this will be the stop-loss for the present day

here is a chart trying out this idea. Let us say we are going to try a swing trade in Toronto Dominion bank [TSX:TD]





So initially we set a manual stop-loss at $53.90.... Now I have it static but in reality I would manually adjust it as the share price ros and would be really concerned when the share price plateaued and the BBwidth looked weaker... so I would reset the manual Stop-loss to $55.00.... by doing so I guarantee myself a profit for the swing yet still give it a chance to continue to rise.

the 9daySMA stop which is trailing would have tripped the same day but at a lower price of about $54.75... you are still giving it a chance to increase in value but the price plunged on that day for some reason

I don't really like your 30daySMA stop loss... it is not tight enough and by the time it trips you have lost basically all that you gained... Now TRUE you gave it every chance to climb higher but it did not do it for long and in consolidation it has fallen back losing your gains.... though it has protected you from an even bigger loss.

Conclusion

Trailing stops based on sma's are fine if you are doing it automatically through software... I don't has a platform that automatically links to my discount broker as I imagine some of these platforms on this site can do.

Therefore it would be a pain in the ASSets to have to update my trailing stops manually, based on a SMA of the previous day, on a daily basis. (can you imagine doing this if you had 25-50 stocks???) . If you look at my status updates I only make the stop-loss updates intermittently... usually making them really tight when I want to capture the most profit I can while still giving it a chance to move higher.

From this albeit one test...I think a 30daySMA is too lax... a 9daySMA may be too tight... though it worked here... Perhaps a 11 daySMA might be better. However, since I cannot do this automatically, I think I will stick to doing it manually...judging when by looking at the indicators for guidance.

Nice question though....

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  #598 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...I think I found an interesting swing play.

It is Algonquin Power [TSX:AQN]

Sound familiar??? Yep we made a little money on this puppy 6 months or so ago in a swing play as shown from my record archive





Here is the chart dating back to that time




ok... this was a not designed as a swing play but after that nice jump the stock did nothing as it marched down that BB tunnel for a couple of weeks. I did not like the way the Slow Sto and MACD were declining and though there was no bad indication from the BBWidth (did not rise as others fell) I pulled the plug and took a decent profit for the 6 weeks we had the stock.

A few weeks later the stock plunged and I forgot about the stock with a satisfied feeling of grabbing a nice profit.

But the stock recovered nicely which would have been hard to see at the time...and rose to $10.30 4 days ago.

the stock was becoming interesting then as a financial report were due soon... but on the day they were to be announced the company announced that there were some accounting problem and there was a huge bailout as people took massive profits.

And that is where we are today.... Are there problems with this stock? Is this an over reaction??

you can see it tried to recover to the lower BB but failed....

We have the makings of a MACD/BBWidth pinch..... why not buy in now? I am not convinced the bottom has been found yet....Slow Sto is falling still and there is no hint of a reversal in the MACD and BBwidth.

It is a stock to watch... I wonder what the accounting problem is.....??????????

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  #599 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I said earlier that when making a swing play I would not care about financials too much... but that is when you see the opportunity happening... not beforehand.

In the case of Algonquin Power, as you can see in the previous chart... it has had a nice steady rise over at least the last 8 months... the company should be doing well financially.... right??? well let us look at the summary of the last 5 quarterly reports




Hmmm not really, since March of last year the operating revenue, net revenue and hence the EPA has severely declined.

One has to wonder what has given investors optimism for this stock. One has to wonder what this accounting problem can be.

1. Is the year end quarter a disaster??? If it is the profit taking is certainly justified if this proves the case when the financials are announced on March 26

2. Did the accountants do something wrong for an entire year and the situation is better than analysts think??

either way I don't think the bottom has been found yet .... it is still a watch but I am not hopeful at this point without more clues as to what is going on.

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  #600 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Underexposed View Post
hmmmmm, At this rate I will be 100% cash in this portfolio by Wednesday. Monday was another bad day on the TSX losing just short of 100 points today.

well that was prophetic... I just had the last stock in this portfolio trip its stop-loss setpoint today...Wednesday

Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NIF.UN]

here is today's intraday chart so far





massive sell off in early morning with a rebound later on.

Here is the company record





Did we make only $80 and change on this swing trade?? No... if you dig back into this journal you will find that we were after the monthly dividend of $0.042/share or annual yield of 17%. We collected one dividend last month and have another pending in a couple of weeks.





So we will have made a total of about $500 for the two months ($80 + $210 + $210)... not a fortune but no loss either.


Sooooo.... I am 100% cash now.... no further losses at least.... what do I do now???

I wait...I will monitor the market for the turnaround that has not shown its face yet (one up-tick does not change a trend)

I will dig through previously owned stocks in this portfolio as they are by-and-large decent stocks to begin with and look for swing opportunities and who knows what I might find could turn into something long term.

This is a weird market for a long term trader.... the rise and fall of the TSX is not conducive to long term holds... only swings as I see it right now.

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