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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #581 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
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bobwest View Post
You are wise to take precautions.

However, remember that "A bull market climbs a wall of worry."

Translation: bad news is good; good news is bad. Well, sort of, anyway, some of the time....

And more for the market as a whole, than for an individual stock. But still....

Bob.

well wisdom comes from knocks on the head... I have lost a lot of money in the past by reveling in the glory of great returns early.

One becomes complacent, thinking you have mastered this game.... but then the market corrects a little and you feel it is natural (and it usually is) but you start to not notice small corrections... and a month goes by and suddenly you realize you have lost a lot of your previous gains.

This is mainly a long term trader malady. We can be cursed with the sin of ignoring a stock in a large portfolio for a while... especially if it was doing well. Daytrader has a much better handle on their stocks as there are usually fewer of them.

I have made my decisions on setting of the limit Stop-loss orders.... they will be revealed at the end of the trading day with the Week end financial status report.

BDI has gained $1.60 so far today (about 12%)....I expect a bit of pullback next week as it is over the upper BB... But certainly timed that pick nicely

BDI.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


Last edited by Underexposed; February 20th, 2015 at 02:15 PM.
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  #582 (permalink)
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EDIT: Sorry...fat fingers..... this was a duplicate of the previous post


Last edited by Underexposed; February 20th, 2015 at 01:23 PM.
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  #583 (permalink)
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week end status Feb 20


well another stellar week

Here is the status report

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A nice 2.28% gain this week...As you can see I have set Limit Stop-loss orders to protect these gains. They will be loosely trailing if the prices rise.

Let's see... almost an 8% gain in 2 months... trending for a 46% gain for the year.... Hahahaha...well we can dream anyway.

My record return which happened in 2009 when there was recovery from the crash was 37% after living expenses. Yeah I was higher than a kite then but haven't come close to that mark since.

I think this will be a lot tougher market to navigate this year.... but then by journaling here I have discovered a few techniques and had an attitude change to selling stocks so....who knows...might do it.... worth a try anyway

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  #584 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I noticed the other day that you had hit "Market Wizard" (red name ) status.

This means that you are both one of the more prolific posters on futures.io (formerly BMT), and also, more importantly, one of those with the highest number of "Thanks," compared to the entire population of members. Which is a rough, but reasonably accurate, measure of the value that the community places on your work.

There aren't usually more than 20 or so that are currently active at any one time.

So, congratulations. People like you here. And what you are doing, too.

Bob.

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Big Mike View Post
It's not total thanks received but a formula including number of thanks per post, popularity of thread view, activity on the forum, etc

Hey Big Mike


bobwest View Post
So, congratulations. People like you here. And what you are doing, too.

I agree @bobwest

what does @Big Mike know about it!


Underexposed View Post
I think this will be a lot tougher market to navigate this year.... but then by journaling here I have discovered a few techniques and had an attitude change to selling stocks so....who knows...might do it.... worth a try anyway

",,,,People like you here.,,,,"

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  #587 (permalink)
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@bobwest , @Big Mike , @Cashish ... Thanks for the nice comments on my change of status. I was as surprised as anyone... at first when I saw my name highlighted in red, I wondered what I had done wrong it did not register with me.

My readership in this journal has increased pretty dramatically in the last 4 months which leads me to wonder why it is:

1. my talking about the Canadian market place? (hahaha...I have demonstrated my lack of understanding of the American equities over and over again in my other journal...though I have not lost much money in that fantasy portfolio.

2. My discussion about long term swing and investment trading (I know there is not a lot of discussion about that here.

3. My use of indicators and description of how I choose or reject them as well as interaction inferences between them.

4. My analysis strategy in general....laying out my various charts, mixing in a bit of FA, and more importantly announcing my decisions usually the day before...not 20/20 hindsight

I also wonder about the national make-up of my readers. Am I writing to mainly Canadians, Americans and Europeans... I think I get an equal representation across all countries with a bit of a bias to Canada.

I used to think that TA/FA was TA/FA and it did not matter what country's stock market you chose... the lessons learned in one market could be applied to all. My Struggle all my investment life with American stocks and revelations in my American journal shows me this is not necessarily true... though I do believe my approach to TA would generally apply... but that is only part of the equation.

Anyways...thanks to all who thanked me and brought me to this point...much appreciated

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  #588 (permalink)
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I mentioned earlier that I would post charts and comments on all the fantasy stocks based on my new sentiment chart replacing CMF indicator with the Force Index(100) indicator.

Also you probably notices that I placed the Parabolic Sar in the Trigger chart but never really talked about it... I do look at it occasionally. I think it could be useful in a swing trade by determining when to buy (short) and when to sell(cover) but I have not done a whole lot of study on this. I like it to be in concert with Bollinger bands.... I find that when the Upper Parabolic Sar strikes the price line from above in the throat of a Bollie Squeeze it usually means a positive breakout is near... similarly when the lower Par Sar does the same thing then it is a sign that the stock will plummet.... it is not very reliable otherwise I find.

So along with the replacement of CMF with Force(100) I will migrate the Par sar and add Bollies to the Sentiment chart.

let us see how that works out


Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NIF.UN]


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ok... face it...I did not add this stock to the portfolio because of its growth potential.... this is a zinc refiner whose lucrative contract runs out in a year...now personally I wonder... there are only about 4 smelters of Zinc across Canada... Is this company going to mothball after this contract??? I find it hard to believe as it is the only one in east of Ontario... there are lots of mines out there... but because they are basically committed to a project that is to end next year they have to give a negative view of the future and hence that was the reason for the drop in price.

SO what happened.... nothing to the dividend... it is still $0.04/share/month or a yield of 17.9%

We bought this stock here in mid January.... we get our first dividend next week and for 5000 shares we will score a $200 dividend and it will be collected every month from now on....and in just a little over one month we have made about 7% in capital gain

Look at the chart... a lot of mud there is it not...but that is because of the one event.... an over-reaction in my opinion... YOU BUY IT FOR THE DIVIDEND... and it was a heck of a buy IMHO.

see how that Force(100) indicator is steadily lessening...I view this as bullish.

see the jump in price....high above the upper bollie and see it moving inside the Bollie envelope in a horizontal way...very nice...

See the nice ... again almost linear rise in the RSI(30)...from under 20 to over 50... this is quite bullish to me

See the bullish cross of the DI+ through the DI-.... I wish I could get rid of the ADX black line as I find it basically useless ... so smoothed to death.

NO reason to change anything wrt this stock except buy more but 5000 shares is a pretty decent buy in this size of portfolio.


Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG]


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this is a dicey hold because it is soooooo dependent on the price of Gold.... gold has declined but see how this stock... though ragged is still moving sideways into a BB tunnel...the Par Sar is in the tunnel but so far is not tipping its hand.

the Force(100)looks stable to me..even a slight rise if that means anything ....Bullish neutral right now...bullish for being green.... neutral for basically being flat.

Same for the RSI... mildly bullish but neutral as it is flat

the DI+/- look bullish...the green and red lines have a slight divergence

I have protected all stocks with a limit Stop Loss... this could be one to sell if gold plunges hard.


Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:PGF]


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this is a vulnerable choice and dependent on the price of Oil... Apparently it has hedged its oil and gas sales a near market prices of a couple of months ago and has a new project coming on line... so I think the risk with the stock is justified.

In the blue circle you see the price declining.... BUT that is normal... it is in consolidation for the most of this month... during this time the price usually gravitates to the 20day SMA... and it is doing this in a great way... moving sideways

The Force(100) is fine and reasonably flat though it has a slight decline to it.

the RSI and Di+/- is pretty neutral too as the green/red lines are pretty parallel

This is another vulnerable stock depending a bit on the price of oil to give it a market lift... as I said it seems to be financially fine due to its hedges...but most traders don't think of that IMHO.


Enbridge Income Fund Holdings [TSX:ENF]


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the Chart looks like waves on the ocean... slightly higher highs and except for last Friday the lows were rising as well

the Force(100) could not be stronger unless it was rising

the RSI is mildly bearish because of its decline but it is not under 50... yet

the ADX is mildly bears as the DI+/- are converging slightly.

Again a good oil stock with a good dividend ... in consolidation... vulnerable to oil prices.


Chorus Aviation Inc Class B [TSX:CHR/B]


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could there be a more bullish stock that slight decline just brought the share price back into the BB envelope.

no worries here IMHO.


Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT [TSX:NWH/UN]


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this is the Par SAR I like....both bull and bear as shown by the blue arrows... it is hits in the throat of a BB squeeze that I pay attention to.

the Force(100) has been steadily rising and now peaking into the green.

the RSI has a nice bullish rise and the DI +/- has finally stopped "chaining" (my term for crossing/recrossing) indecision... this is full bullish now

A nice hold now....dicey when I bought it .... back then I liked the \Business... a REIT for medical "malls" so-to-speak... stable clients and growing.


Black Diamond Group [TSX:BDI]


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this was a bit of a gamble on bottoming oil prices, I'll admit but I have liked this company for a long time and it has lost 2/3 of its share price. It provides temporary shelters mainly to the O&G sector.

the Force(100) looks increasingly Bullish... the RSI is now full Bullish

See that tiny bullish cross in the DI+/-... not definitive yet but combined with other indicators I like its looks


Conclusion

I think I have pretty nice suite of long term holds... I think Force(100) belongs in my sentiment chart.... the indicator is sooooo easy to ready and not many (if any) difficulties.

I won't change anything unless I lose a stock to the Stop Limit Loss.

comments welcome.

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  #589 (permalink)
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Just a note to say that I am taking a breather and traveling south to visit my son, daughter-in-law and grandson.

I will be back on this site as of Saturday... it is just a short vacay.

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  #590 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TDWaterhouse
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Posts: 934 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 180 given, 777 received


Well I am back from my short holiday in the USA...the exchange rate on the Canadian dollar was obscene at $1CDN = about $0.80US

Had a nice time in Las Vegas ... My son and daughter-in-law live in California and and brought my grandson with them. It was fun going to events with them though they had to be kid friendly. My grandson is quite a treat and though 2 years old has a pretty good demeanor. Walking through a casino area he as excited by the flashing lights of the slots and attracted several smiles as he did his little dance as he walked... I told people he had just won a jackpot which drew several laughs.

But now it is back to home and it seems like a dream in a way.

But I did not worry about stocks while I was away. Let us see how we fared during my absence from the market.


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We lost a bit over the week but not serious. We should not expect to reel off 2+% profits every week.

We tripped 2 stop losses shown in the above report.

Both are Oil &Gas related. Enbridge Income Fund and Pengrowth Corp. were profitable Pengrowth as a swing trade and Enbridge Income fund @ about 6 months is more of a long term play for me.

Here is the company records for transactions in this portfolio on these companies.

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As you can see we have solid profits as opposed to the loss the first time we tried Pengrowth Energy Corp.

There are also dividends to consider.... Very substantial for ENF too bad we sold before the ex-dividend date or we would have had one more dividend for March... like we have pending for Pengrowth

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Are we going to forget about these stocks??? Nopes... we shall monitor them over time and when there is a nice breakout again...I will look to be getting them again.

Lots of cash generated by these sales.... will be looking for somewhere to park it in the near futre.

Nice to be back

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