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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #571 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well it came close...selling Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN]... today the price fell to $5.06 before rising to $5.11.





In that orange circle it still looks like that 50daySMA is a resistance and the stock price is positioned for a positive breakout still but that could go sour... the MACD and Slow Sto still look fine... the BBwidth has stopped falling.... It is not really low enough for a normal breakout but it could happen.

So the upshot is that the company's stock could break out any time... However my gut feeling is that it will drop below $5.04 tomorrow and it will sell.

Now...I will show you the trigger chart of the company I want to buy to replace it,

Black Diamond Group [BdI:TSX]

here is the chart





I was going to buy it for real today but it got away from me for a 15% gain today....(@#!!%%) But look at the orange circle..... See how high it is above the upper bollie???.... it should pull back a dollar to about $11.00 tomorrow.... If it does not...then it would be worth chasing it... but I think I could get it cheaper than its current price... I cannot get it in my fantasy portfolio because I don't have the money yet and who knows...Lundin might take off too.

I am patient.

Why do I like Black Diamond Group when the price has dropped from $34.00 to $10.00 in the last 10 months???

This is one of the best companies when it comes to temporary infrastructure with a good portion of its business (but not limited to) coming from the O&G industry.

this is a list of projects from their website

Black Diamond Limited

To me this sudden rise is a sign confirming other signs that the O&G business is reviving and the fall in oil price is at or nearing an end.

So we shall see how things develop with respect to these two companies

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  #572 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well As I expected... the limit stop-loss triggered at $5.01 which is where it opened to large volume. It almost opemed below the lower limit of the stop loss range.



So I have money to spend.


BDI also performed as expected with a $1 pullback. Always look at the position of the price relative to the bollies.... above or below the bollie limits will, withing 3-4 days pull back into the bollie envelope




This may not be a bottom yet...I will monitor BDI to see how low it will go and try to grab it there.... uncertain at present.

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  #573 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Well There is about an hour left in the trading day and I want BDI.to... I have about $15,000 from the sale of Lundin Mines

this is the current status on an L2 intraday chart



I will put in a bid for 1000 shares of Black Diamond Group [TSX:BDI] @ $11.45/share


EDIT (about 20 mins later)

I would have got my bid... I liked the way the price was tailing the upper bollie and as you can see it has a bit of a breakout going... how long it will last but I now own 1000 shares of BDI.TO @ $11.45



Last edited by Underexposed; February 10th, 2015 at 03:25 PM.
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  #574 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

mid week status Feb 11/15

well this is the start of another sterling week if it continues to perform along this trend





Nothing to change for now since buying BDI.TO..... making over 1% in just 2 days is a great start. Not sure what I will do with the change At cash... I could use it to add to Lakeshore Gold but I am not sure Gold will continue to climb and this may be the next stock to be put under the limit stop-loss spotlight until it sells. but it is premature to do that right now.


We shall see how the week plays out.

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  #575 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Week end status... Feb 13/15

Another great week....So far things are ticking over nicely...BDI Corp has been a great addition to this portfolio... Lundin Mining has recovered a bit but it was going nowhere for a long time.

here is the status




I am finding no problems identifying opportunity in the Canadian market...wish I had the same success in the US market.

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  #576 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

mid-week status Feb 18/15

here is the status





We are ticking on all cylinders here... the increase in cash comes from stock dividends. We are on track for another banner week, I am going to have to adjust my Y axis on that chart soon at this rate.

If you have been following my posts in my American portfolio thread you will read that I have replaced the CMF indicator with Force Index(100) I am testing out this indicator and feel it is a keeper (reasons in the other thread.)

I will be testing each stock with the Force Index indicator and note any problems but I am pretty happy with the results here so far.

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  #577 (permalink)
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Trading: YM/Gold
 
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Underexposed View Post
... the increase in cash comes from stock dividends...

Indeed, something I always underestimate the importance of.

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  #578 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


ratfink View Post
Indeed, something I always underestimate the importance of.

Yes, I agree. To me stocks that give good dividends also stand up well during bad times and can be an income source in retirement years.

I have in reality 2 portfolios that are tax sheltered... a Registered Retired Saving Plan (RRSP) and Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA).

These are the 2 accounts in Canada where you can avoid or defer taxes on income.

The RRSP has been around for about 40 years now and is the main reason I was able to retire a little over 10 years ago. You get a tax break on any money deposited into this account and I started in my late 20's and I knew at the time that I would not ever get a company pension as I was changing jobs back then every 2-3 years so I decided that this account would be my pension. I donated the max allowable and for most of that time it was in GIC investment certificates but now it is all equities most of which generate dividends. At age 71 I will convert it to a Registered Income Fund (RIF) which is still tax sheltered but the government requires a drawdown of about 5% initially but increases with age. that drawndown money is taxed ... this does not bother me as I generate well over that in annual gains anyway though it will increase my taxes.

The TFSA is a beauty and only about 6 years old. You can only contribute $5500/year annually and there is no tax break on the deposit.... here I have 100% in high paying dividends and the value of this account has doubled in 5 years.

the unique feature of the TFSA is that you can withdraw the money at any time AND PAY NO TAX on the withdrawn money... also in the next calendar year you can replace that withdrawn money and there is no penalty for doing so.

Let us say you need $1000.00 monthly and your dividends within the TFSA are $1000.00/month. You could withdraw this money each month and because you spend it quickly there is little or no tax on money generated on the withdrawn money. Then in the next year you can contribute $5500 (normal contribution) + $12,000 (Money to replace the withdrawn money). This will be put into high paying dividends as well... increasing the dividends generated... allowing you to take out more money/month if you wish. Pretty sweet.

anyway that is the goal for that account.

Here is the dividend record for this fantasy account... you can see that they represent about 2.7% gains for the year I have had the account in operation.






Yep, I pay attention to dividends

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  #579 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

this is going to be another really great week.... I don't expect it to hold but BDI.TO has jumped from the gate this morning and is up $1.00 so far this morning....nice timing for that one.

All this good news though is a bit worrying. I can count on the fingers of two hands the number of years in the last 10 where I have started the year with great gains....only to watch them disappear in April - June. Then I wait til Fall until the market for my stocks pick up again.

This is not good...I have to change that some how. We have the financial markets being rattled by Greece right now. Oil has plummeted in price. Yet this portfolio (as well as my real portfolios) is performing well. My American fantasy portfolio is trading water but I am just a toddler in understanding the American market so at least I am not losing a lot and have hopes for the future.

I think the solution is one which I have already used....I should protect my gains with a rather generous Limit Stop-loss. I don't want it so tight that it will trip on normal fluctuations ... just there to protect against a plunge. I will also broaden the range of that limit stop-loss.... instead of a 5% of the share price I will make it 10%... most of the time it will not pass through the selling range without stopping but this will give it a better chance to sell in the event of a bad drop.

I will think on this a bit for a while and post what I decide later

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  #580 (permalink)
Super Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,631 since Jan 2013
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You are wise to take precautions.

However, remember that "A bull market climbs a wall of worry."

Translation: bad news is good; good news is bad. Well, sort of, anyway, some of the time....

And more for the market as a whole, than for an individual stock. But still....

Bob.

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