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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #551 (permalink)
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Week end Status Jan 23/15

Well it was a struggle today but I held onto most of the gains this week to stay in the Black for the first time this month.... here is the chart

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As you can see I still have the bid for Northwest Healthcare and it will be active for a while. I think it will drop to the 20daySMA in the near future...so we shall see if I can get the stock there.

I am looking at some very good O&G stocks that look to be bottoming....these are just watches at this point....closely watched by me:

CVE.TO, ERF.TO, CPG.TO, ECA.TO and PGF.TO

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  #552 (permalink)
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i think you're doing great considering the crazy way the markets have been lately. looks like oil is bouncing a bit. might help.

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  #553 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
i think you're doing great considering the crazy way the markets have been lately. looks like oil is bouncing a bit. might help.

Yeah you are right it is a bit crazy out there.... in my real portfolios I have made a bid to get some Crescent Point Energy [TSX:CPG]. This is a solid stock is a mix of Nat gas and Oil...why it is breaking out along with other oil stocks is a bit of a mystery to me...some doing well NOW after falling about 50% but others are still falling and Oil is still in the mid $40's

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But as you see in this chart all my criteria are met in this trigger chart....the Slow Sto having risen nicely above 80, MACD rising and now the BBwidth following suit. I am not putting it into the Fantasy portfolio as I am looking for something <$15 for here and there are several candidates possible.

I really like the dividend which is $0.23/share/month right now

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  #554 (permalink)
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ok.... this one is for the Fantasy portfolio here... and I am seriously considering it for my real holdings

I have noticed lately that some O&G companies are swimming against the tide of falling oil prices after losing about 40-50% of their share price (Most oil companies, with few exceptions, have lost that amount or more since the fall of oil prices)

I mentioned these companies a few days ago and here they are again: CVE.TO, ERF.TO, CPG.TO, ECA.TO and PGF.TO

So the one I am high on at the moment is Pengrowth Energy Corp [PGF:TSX]

Albeit the fundamental data is pre-oil price slide and it will be interesting to see the next quarterly report to see how their bottom line is affected.... but from the research I have done apparently they have hedged their oil to be sold at about $94 and their natural gas is priced at about 10% above current price through contract.

But if this is true the next financial report won't be all that bad

you can see here the operating revenue and net revenue has been increasing til Sept/14

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information


It also has a very good dividend of $0.04/share/month which it has been paying out since 2013 regularly... it has been in debt for a few years now on a "Lindberg project" that is due to come on line in the coming months

So Fundamentally it is not the greatest ... but technically it is recovering a bit.

Here is the TA


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You can see here from about mid-Dec it has started its recovery. It has a triangle quality in its shape... skewed a bit but there is an additional support at $3.35 horizontally which though it failed once recently it rebounded over that line again


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It is not the best "trigger" chart at this point... but not bad either

The 50daySMA is acting as a resistance line since mid-Dec... and it may do so again tomorrow. The Slow Sto is rising againand is above 50... the MACD is very close to having a new high and the BBwidth is approaching the baseline for a breakout soon

As it stands the breakout could go anywhere though it has the smallest of advantage to being Bullish at this moment.... that tiny doji from yesterday probably indicates a pullback tomorrow.


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mixed reviews in this sentiment chart. The CMF is in the mud right now but on a rebound (mildly bearish)
The RSI is basically flat and below 50...I have more faith in the dotted trend than the solid (neutral bearish)
The ADX DI+/- is still bearish...the green line is not reaching for the red at this point (bearish)


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I like this Ichimoku chart. You can see that an attempt is being made to get above the upper red cloud. The distance is getting smaller and smaller with time . You can see in the top circle the thin red line rises above the blue line.... even though share price is rising for last 5 days (bearish but I like the attempt to rise above the clouds.

The onBal Volume is suddenly bullish... the CCI is mildly bullish as well.

All and all if you cancel out bull / bear you well still see a mild bearish leaning

Conclusion

I believe the price will fall lower in the near future but I don't believe another 50% loss is in the offing and recovery is pending .

Here is the daily chart for that last 5 days


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You can see a sort of channel with a secondary support at $3.35....I can see that the share price will pull back to the dotted line.

I have an existing order for NotherWest Health but I will make an order for :

Limit buy order for 2000 shares of Pengrowth Energy Corp (PGF:TSX] @$3.35/share


If there is a breakout above $3.60 (which I doubt)...I will chase it and buy... if I am successful I will reduce the number of shares I would buy on the other stock.

Fingers crossed....

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  #555 (permalink)
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Well that little doji was right and the consensus of being mildly bearish was true


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As you can see the price fell to the $3.35 level for a while and has fallen through it now so I can safely say my order for 2000 shares of Pengrowth Energy Corp has been filled.

I will have to modify my order for NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust [NWH.UN:TSX] to about 800 shares since I don't have the capital to purchase 1500 shares anymore.

First leg of my experiment with PGF is complete...now it just has to rise in price again.... it has advanced toward that apex in the triangle so we should know some time next week.

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  #556 (permalink)
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My order for NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust [NWH.UN:TSX] was due to expire today , so I have cancelled the order and after subtracting the cost of purchasing Pengrowth Energy Corp, I find I have enough cash to purchase 1000 shares of NWH.UN.TO

so I have re-entered an order for

NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT [NWH.UN:TSX] for 1000 shares @ $9.30 valid til Feb 6/15

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  #557 (permalink)
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What a rollercoaster ride!!! the financial world took a dump on the Canadian markets today... I am back into the red again though there are still 2 days til the week end.


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I am happy with my purchases and expect them to perform well in the long term.... but right now I'm getting seasick {sigh}

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  #558 (permalink)
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it's been rocky.

have you considered using options to leverage your portfolio when you're very sure about an upcoming rise?

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  #559 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
it's been rocky.

have you considered using options to leverage your portfolio when you're very sure about an upcoming rise?

I did consider options a couple of years ago. But I discarded the notion after trying to figure out what it was all about for a month. The problem with leverage is that it works both ways... I can win big when I am right...I lose big when I am wrong. As you can see from my status reports I am not always right, especially in the short term. I am good with that as I have a long term view of things.

I am comfortable with that view. It works for me and even though things are unpredictable, with the stocks I own in these bad times there are buying opportunities for me. I am confident that what I pick will win eventually so I hold when many would sell.

I make a decent income doing long term trading...I understand it and it does not stress me out. Jumping into options would not make my life easier or less stressful. I stick to my knitting.

Similarly I was asked once why I did not sell real estate as it was quite lucrative in Calgary...I know very little about real estate, I don't like being on call 24/7 so I don't miss a sale.... there is enough interest and challenge in long term trading... and I understand that challenge.

I just don't like leveraged products on principle.... I don't like debt either....and I have never in my life blown an account...too much tuition to pay.

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  #560 (permalink)
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well the price of NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT [NWH.UN:TSX] fell below $9.30 today to end around $9.26 so my order for 1000 shares @ $9.30 will have filled.

this is a terrible week after having a terrific week last week. I am now basically fully invested now with only something like $64 left in cash in this portfolio.

Nothing to do now but wait for a turn around. Canadian markets seem so much more volatile right now...hardly any degree of predictably it seems as far as recovery goes...I like my choices at present and will stick by them for now anyway.

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