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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #541 (permalink)
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Gold has been on the rise and is currently breaking out as shown below

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Lakeshore gold has responded well from its bottom and is in a breakout also attempting to pass its 200daySMA

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I am immediately placing a market order for LSG.To 10,000 share @ $0.98/share


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  #542 (permalink)
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Got it....immediately.... it then fell to $0.975 as you can see below

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I was sick lately and now in recovery....or was this just "gold"fever {sigh}... like it or not I am back in again

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  #543 (permalink)
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week end status Jan 16/15


well the week ends much better than it began the mid week loss of about 4.7% was pared back to a loss of less than 1.8%

it is nice to see the rebound of Enbridge Income fund...and the performance of Chorus Aviation is satisfying.
The mining stocks have taken a beating but I am not too concerned there especially Noranda Income fund... that should recover nicely.


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I have been watching Gold prices and that of Lakeshore gold and I feel that Gold is showing potential now


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you will note I don't show a support line here....actually it is piercing it at the moment (rather it is piercing the resistance line that should become the support line. The blue arrows show the bottoms of zero columns I use to form the line. the solid diagonal line was a resistance also that was pierced today so it now is a support.

The current formation is quite bullish in P&F terms as it is a triple top breakout...the magenta arrows show the x columns involved

the dotted red line at 1330 shows the start of serious resistance again... we really don't break into freedom until we get past 1350-1360.... that is a huge resistance band.... making it to 1330 though will result in a surge for gold producing stock...as investor would switch from oil to gold again


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See how bullish the breakout has been... Slow sto anchored above 80 for almost a week now....increased slope to positive MACD and the sharp breakout for the BBwidth 5 days ago

The only real negative is that the price is far above the upper BB...I expect a pullback but hope it will be a sideways motion rather than a plunge down....the sideways motion would confirm this is a serious try to be a bullish commodity.

I won't show the Lakeshore gold trigger chart as it was shown 2 posts ago when I decided to buy it again. Obviously that 200daysma stopped it for today's run...but I thought the P&F chart would be interesting to show as there is a lot of action there


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As you can seethe green support (formerly a resistance was pierced today and it was pretty strong (you assess strength by the number of X column tops and O column bottoms make up the line and how recent they were.... theses are relatively recent and close together.

The next resistance is at $1.02 ... the blue arrows show the columns involved. Alone that would be a decent resistance but you can see 2 diagonal resistance lines crossing in the same column where the price is rising. Individually these lines are not that great...especially the top one... but they are additive when the three cross at the same point. I will have a decision to make when we reach that point.

Good trading


Last edited by Underexposed; January 18th, 2015 at 02:30 AM.
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  #544 (permalink)
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A couple of stocks I am currently watching are

Transforce Inc [TFI:TSX]

this is a trucking company whose fortunes should improve on the expense side with the drop in fuel prices...though that does not mean that they might not lose business to customers as some of their business is to do with the O&G sector

Here is a composite of various charts


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P&F chart

A very strong chart for over 2 years...climbing in steps in an ascending wedge. This pattern is traditionally bearish and we are testing the support line...so one must show prudence

Trigger chart

A curious chart...in the green circle we see a relatively flat BBwidth. The MACD has a very slight +ve slope but not a sharp one... the Slow Sto is flat though very near the real bullish area of over 80.

Over this time the stock price was rising 5% or so but not without some dips. It seems to be a habit with this stock as it nears all time highs...those dips don't seem to have bothered the indicators...perhaps the latest dip can be seen as a positive event ...now at least.

Ichmoku chart

See how the latest dip approaches the upper boundary of the green cloud then beat a retreat upward.... good news or is it going to make another attack???

The thin red/blue lines inside that circle remain bullish though flat...that huge drop did not cause them to move a muscle...good news.

Both indicators are showing a mildly bearish trend.

On just these TA tests....there is potential here... we could be staging for another jump... or not.

It is just a WATCH at this point


***************************************************************************
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (NWH.UN:TSX)

A mouthful in Company name... this is aREIT that specializes in properties that house medical businesses. Rather unique in the REIT world and supposedly little influenced by outside economy issues.

this stock would be purchased by me for two purposes... For one I like the specialty area...building a niche like that makes it different from other REITS and hence less competition for them so there is capital gain potential.

Secondly, is the dividend as shown in this summary link

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

8.5% or $0.067/share/monthly...not a bad return

But has it been sustainable....big question

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

well look at that for the last 5 years it has paid a monthly dividend without fail and the same value of $0.067/share/monthly.... I like that

Here is a composite of various charts


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P&F chart

not a particularly bullish chart though there has been a nice recover since Dec/14. I see a support at $9.20 ... a resistance is harder to spot so I will tentatively go with a diagonal resistance showing currently $9.80

Trigger chart

As you can see in the top blue circle the price is in consolidation following recover from that bottom at $8.40... See how after a run the share price tends to return to the 20daySMA...but it is doing it in a good way....going sideways and letting the 20daySMA come to it.

The indicators are showing the run is over (you also see it in the arc in the upper BB).... again you don't see a drastic fall in the Slow Sto and MACD...they have a lazy -ve slope but remain mildly bullish at this point. The BBwidth on the other hand is falling like a stone...but a major movement in the price won't happen til it reaches near 5 and I would suggest that is 10 business days away.

Ichmoku chart

Nice looking ICHI chart.....see how it has crawled above the red cloud...AND LOOK AT THE DISTANCE BETWEEN the thin red/blue line... it is not going back below any cloud for a long time now.

Those indicators below look pretty good

Again depending on your tolerance for risk...it could be a buy right now (though the run is in consolidation there are no bear indications) or a watch until the BBwidth falls to 5 to see what happens.

I like that dividend but I will wait a few days to see what happens...it is a watch but a good watch.

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  #545 (permalink)
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Do you watch many penny stocks?

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  #546 (permalink)
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Skeptical View Post
Do you watch many penny stocks?

Yes, I do. But we are not allowed to discuss sub-$1 stocks on futures.io (formerly BMT).

I sort of jumped the gun on [LSG:TSX] as I made a fantasy purchase here when it was $0.98/share but I think BM will forgive me as the stock was in this portfolio a few months ago. now it has jumped to $1.06/share and rising. In my real portfolios I have purchased this stock as I like the way it responds to rising gold prices...but as you may have seen in the past...gold is fickle and can turn around in a heart beat so this will be more of a swing trade than long term.

You have to be very careful in choosing a penny stock.

I have rarely made a successful purchase of an American sub-$5 / share stock... I discovered the reason why and talked about it in my American journal here. American investors treat stocks under $5 like they are garbage relatively speaking compared to Canadian stocks there are very few stocks in the under $5/share range.

https://futures.io/trading-journals/34357-underexposed-american-stock-journal-long-term-2.html#post463636

If you look at my American portfolio on futures.io (formerly BMT) I don't seem to consider a stock under $10.

Canadian stocks are a lot different... a stock between $1 and $5 is considered to be a maturing stock....sort of like a young adult in maturity.... when they range over $10 they are a maturing stock.

Low Pennies ($0.15 to $0.50 )are babies in Canada... many many in the TSXV and a lot in the TSX. You don't know which ones will survive as often they are start-ups, or new unproven technologies. There are stocks in this range that are worth buying... but you cannot choose them at random (we are not talking day-trading here... anything can happen in a day) for long term hold. In real life, in my 3 Canadian portfolios I have 2 stocks that are in this range. I won't mention names but they are both mining stocks... both are established and now producing mines..... they make money...

One I bought 8 years ago before it became a mine and I bought it based on its drilling records and the amazing %grade of metal in the cores.... on that info the stock soared from $0.20 to $1.20 but it was a roman candle and flared out after reality set in and the investors realized it would be years before the company made money.... it was a heck of a swing play. I am back into it when it fell and leveled off at $0.18/share and increased my holdings at $0.18, $0.20 and $0.23....it is currently about $0.29 after a little more than a one year period.... I have high hopes for this stock and watch for a break out.

The other was a stock worth as much as $9.00 but fell because of infrastructure issues and lack of demand for their metal. It is a metal not common in NA but without demand as it struggles to regain former glory. It has a pretty good stable operating revenue but the cost of solving the infrastructure and mining issues are still high and the relatively low price for the metal makes it difficult to get into the black.... but I am patient and made a small speculative purchase.

The teenagers are the $0.50 - $1.00/share range..... there is more opportunity there if you are skilled fundamentally and able to separate the good from the bad and butt ugly. This is how I found Lakeshore Gold. Many many start-up O&G companies or mines are here.

Using simply TA ... even the charts I have developed and show here ... have limited success when evaluating sub $1 stocks.... they are often not reliable companies and, if the butt ugly type, they can be manipulated heavily.

If I am hunting in the $0.15 - $1.00 I want to see (but not limited to)

1. Some operating revenue.... this eliminates a lot of exploration companies... I don't like these stocks as they are dream sellers and hope their finds get bought out (but the investor often does not benefit from the buyout).

2. Some manageable debt... these are start-up companies so they don't have a lot of revenue... debt is necessary to develop their property/service/commodity. No debt means no activity they can talk a good fight but are not doing anything ....

Ideally you find a company with a reduced debt load with each quarter and an increasing Operating revenue. They don't have to be in the black yet but they are progressing towards it.

These companies are worth investigating further fundamentally then technically.... but those criteria above will filter out the really bad/butt ugly

NEVER look at a stock under $0.15.... and sub-pennies are the worst and a waste of money.... they are for bottom feeders and those are Suckers in the fish world. Don't be one of those "Born every minute...."

Of course what I have discussed here apply to Canadian stocks in the $0.15 - $1 range.... As I said at the beginning.... I have rarely been successful at American stocks under $5.00...never mind under $1.

I won't promote any sub-$1 stock here or in any PM to me but this is my general approach.

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  #547 (permalink)
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Mid-Week Status Jan 21/15

Well well well.... the sky is not falling along with the price of Oil.

Here is the current status of this fantasy portfolio


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a really nice turn around, not the least due to the rise of Lakeshore Gold [LSG:TSX]. This will be a swing trade that lasts as long as gold rises... once the gain rises above 20% I will protect it with a trailing Limit Stop Loss.

Looking closely at O&G stocks right now. Perhaps we are seeing an end to the fall of oil prices.... there is lots of opportunity in this sector once the price drop stops.

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  #548 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
Yes, I do. But we are not allowed to discuss sub-$1 stocks on futures.io (formerly BMT).

I sort of jumped the gun on [LSG:TSX] as I made a fantasy purchase here when it was $0.98/share but I think BM will forgive me as the stock was in this portfolio a few months ago. now it has jumped to $1.06/share and rising. In my real portfolios I have purchased this stock as I like the way it responds to rising gold prices...but as you may have seen in the past...gold is fickle and can turn around in a heart beat so this will be more of a swing trade than long term.

You have to be very careful in choosing a penny stock.

I have rarely made a successful purchase of an American sub-$5 / share stock... I discovered the reason why and talked about it in my American journal here. American investors treat stocks under $5 like they are garbage relatively speaking compared to Canadian stocks there are very few stocks in the under $5/share range.

https://futures.io/trading-journals/34357-underexposed-american-stock-journal-long-term-2.html#post463636

If you look at my American portfolio on futures.io (formerly BMT) I don't seem to consider a stock under $10.

Canadian stocks are a lot different... a stock between $1 and $5 is considered to be a maturing stock....sort of like a young adult in maturity.... when they range over $10 they are a maturing stock.

Low Pennies ($0.15 to $0.50 )are babies in Canada... many many in the TSXV and a lot in the TSX. You don't know which ones will survive as often they are start-ups, or new unproven technologies. There are stocks in this range that are worth buying... but you cannot choose them at random (we are not talking day-trading here... anything can happen in a day) for long term hold. In real life, in my 3 Canadian portfolios I have 2 stocks that are in this range. I won't mention names but they are both mining stocks... both are established and now producing mines..... they make money...

One I bought 8 years ago before it became a mine and I bought it based on its drilling records and the amazing %grade of metal in the cores.... on that info the stock soared from $0.20 to $1.20 but it was a roman candle and flared out after reality set in and the investors realized it would be years before the company made money.... it was a heck of a swing play. I am back into it when it fell and leveled off at $0.18/share and increased my holdings at $0.18, $0.20 and $0.23....it is currently about $0.29 after a little more than a one year period.... I have high hopes for this stock and watch for a break out.

The other was a stock worth as much as $9.00 but fell because of infrastructure issues and lack of demand for their metal. It is a metal not common in NA but without demand as it struggles to regain former glory. It has a pretty good stable operating revenue but the cost of solving the infrastructure and mining issues are still high and the relatively low price for the metal makes it difficult to get into the black.... but I am patient and made a small speculative purchase.

The teenagers are the $0.50 - $1.00/share range..... there is more opportunity there if you are skilled fundamentally and able to separate the good from the bad and butt ugly. This is how I found Lakeshore Gold. Many many start-up O&G companies or mines are here.

Using simply TA ... even the charts I have developed and show here ... have limited success when evaluating sub $1 stocks.... they are often not reliable companies and, if the butt ugly type, they can be manipulated heavily.

If I am hunting in the $0.15 - $1.00 I want to see (but not limited to)

1. Some operating revenue.... this eliminates a lot of exploration companies... I don't like these stocks as they are dream sellers and hope their finds get bought out (but the investor often does not benefit from the buyout).

2. Some manageable debt... these are start-up companies so they don't have a lot of revenue... debt is necessary to develop their property/service/commodity. No debt means no activity they can talk a good fight but are not doing anything ....

Ideally you find a company with a reduced debt load with each quarter and an increasing Operating revenue. They don't have to be in the black yet but they are progressing towards it.

These companies are worth investigating further fundamentally then technically.... but those criteria above will filter out the really bad/butt ugly

NEVER look at a stock under $0.15.... and sub-pennies are the worst and a waste of money.... they are for bottom feeders and those are Suckers in the fish world. Don't be one of those "Born every minute...."

Of course what I have discussed here apply to Canadian stocks in the $0.15 - $1 range.... As I said at the beginning.... I have rarely been successful at American stocks under $5.00...never mind under $1.

I won't promote any sub-$1 stock here or in any PM to me but this is my general approach.

Thanks for your detailed reply. Some great information.

I actually like those bottom feeding parasites on the ASX, but you need to be careful like always. But if you do good due-diligence and put a bit of work in you can find some high risk plays. Look for low market cap etc. , good management , projects, cash. Allocate 10 or 20k to that portion of the portfolio. If you find 5 potentials trading around 2 cents, buy 200,000 shares in each and if one goes to just 10 cents you have doubled your money , if a couple go bust its doesn't really matter. I know this is not text book investing /trading but it has worked for me every time i do it. Just need patience and to be aware of any changes.

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  #549 (permalink)
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Skeptical View Post
Thanks for your detailed reply. Some great information.

I actually like those bottom feeding parasites on the ASX, but you need to be careful like always. But if you do good due-diligence and put a bit of work in you can find some high risk plays. Look for low market cap etc. , good management , projects, cash. Allocate 10 or 20k to that portion of the portfolio. If you find 5 potentials trading around 2 cents, buy 200,000 shares in each and if one goes to just 10 cents you have doubled your money , if a couple go bust its doesn't really matter. I know this is not text book investing /trading but it has worked for me every time i do it. Just need patience and to be aware of any changes.

this is not a system I would advocate and frankly if you continue to talk about penny stocks like this you will draw the attention of @Big Mike and you will not be on this website long. I talked about this once here and that is all.

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  #550 (permalink)
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I will place a limit bid for NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust [NWH.UN:TSX]

I will place a Limit Buy order for 1500 shares of NWH.UN:TSX @ $9.30 which with commissions be about $13,960... I currently have slightly more than $16,000 available

I like its dividend, I like its niche in the REIT sector and with the Canadian government lowering central bank interest levels a 0.25% this should be ok.... the order will be placed in the first 15 mins of the Bell unless it plummets below $9.30 were I would follow it down and grab it at its bottom.

Having a great week.... so far a record gain of over 5.7% wiping out all the red ink...lets hope I keep these gains and maybe increase them more

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