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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #531 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
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Well times are tough... Enercare Inc [TSX:ECI] had its stop loss tripped yesterday

here are details of the financial details. It was not a great gain but considering it is only a 3 month hold it is not so bad .... 1.75% is better than bank interest I suppose

I shall file my status report shortly and as you will see I have a lot of money in cash now. It is hard to find good prospects right now width the fall of Oil prices creating a bit of chaos I am not in a position to buy stock until an opportunity presents itself.

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  #532 (permalink)
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Status Jan 7, 2015

Well the fall of oil continues and the drop in share values follow suit... at least any vaguely related to the O&G sector.

There will HUGE opportunities once the slide in Oil price stops...it doesn't even have to reverse direction suddenly...a stop and slow drift positive would suffice.

I have had quite a few decent stocks stop out on me for little reason other than the economic climate of late. I will keep them in mind as I did with Chorus Aviation [CHR/B:TSX]. That stock fell as well but hopefully won't be caught in the vortex of this problem

Here are the details....I have archived the 2014 details and starting anew.

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I find it ironic... OIL prices go sky high and there are financial problems everywhere. Oil prices fall hard and just as many financial problems.

There is some talk of 2008 - 2009 happening again.... Hope not but I am preparing for it again now...

I wonder about whether Enbridge Income Fund [ENF:TSX] will fall further....I am watching that one....I have a lot of money sitting idle ....I would like to double the shares of that company to 1000 if it shows a bottom.

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  #533 (permalink)
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bidding for Noranda Income Fund


this income trust fund is purchased not for its capital gain.... rather it is for its 19% dividend paid in monthly distributions.

Usually such a high dividend stock is pretty dicey but I have off and on had this stock in the past and luckily I dodged the time when the stock lost 50% of its value ... back in Sept there was a decline in price, I was selling a lot of others that were declining and decided to sell one in my real portfolios.

This stock was set up to distribute the income from a Zinc smelter in eastern Canada. The smelter makes money as can be seen in this link

Income Statement quarterly

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Balance sheet

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

no current debt but an increase of a prior stable debt probably due to an upgrade to its process.

When looking at a dividend paying stock, you want to make sure it pays its dividends

Here is a chart showing the payments for the last 5 years

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

Now hover with the cursor over the green "D"'s and you will find that there is no change in the dividend and has made its monthly dividend faithfully ... even with the drop in stock price at the end of Oct. The December is due on Jan 15

So... 50% cut in share price, dividend remains the same.

Why did the price plummet??? Well times were rough...still are... and the the quarterly report referred to the fact that the agreement to process the zinc ore is set to END in 2016 (June I think)...so this negative news is not well received...even though the "news was known for years before that.

This is a buying opportunity to me....the stock is rising albeit slowly. I wish to purchase 5000 shares at $2.57 and I will receive 5000 x 0.04167 = $208.35 dividend each month.

There is risk here from 2 angles....

1. the shares may decline again and wipe out the dividend gain.
2. There may be a decline in share value over time simply because it is approaching the end of the smelter's contracts

Then I ask myself....why does management spend the money to upgrade their process if it only has an 18 month lifetime...sounds like a waste to me.

So to me anyway... the dividends are attractive and I'm betting that within the next year they will find more work.


Here are the charts

1) P&F Chart



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well there is the resistance at $3.30 but getting there alone is a 70% gain +dividends....All right


2) Trigger Chart



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the blue circle shows the price has been above the upper bollie so coming back into the BB envelope is expected. you can also see the 50daySMA might be a resistance here.

the Slow Sto and MACD are fine...and the BBwidth has flatlined but not topped-out yet



3) Sentiment Chart



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All three indicators are still bearish but they are only mildly so and show improvement.




4) Ichimoku Chart



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You can see the two indicators are fine and returning to bullish. The Ichimoku is mixed....you can see the price is baulking at entering the red cloud but the thin red/blue lines are definitely bullish.

I would be happy if it could just find its way into that red cloud for now


Conclusion

As I said ... it is the dividend that attracts me and others.... along with the stability of that dividend.

Tomorrow I will enter a limit bid for 5000 shares of Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NIF.UN] at $2.57... as before I will wait 15 mins to see if I can get a better price or if something unusual will happen

Good trading.....

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  #534 (permalink)
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well the day opened with Noranda Income Fund started the day at $2.55 and then passed through my price of $2.57/share so I will assume that my limit buy would have been executed.

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it is continuing to rise slightly so looks good to go

Good Trading

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  #535 (permalink)
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Placing a limit Buy order to add 500 shares of Enbridge Income Fund [ENF:TSX] @ $38.90/share to add to my existing 500 shares and bring the total to 1000 at 8:45MST

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  #536 (permalink)
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the order was essentially a market order and would have filled immediately.... I always make my orders limit bids as I don't want surprises and have the order filled at a higher price than I want.

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  #537 (permalink)
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I like that trade for its reversion to the mean quality plus the dividends, though reversion to mean trades are always dicey in stocks I feel.

Here's a question for you: Let's say oil continues to plummet to 20$/barrell. How far do you think these oil companies will fall, and if none of them would go out of business, then instead of stopping out of them, why not buy additional shares and average down? I know that's a no-non usually, but I'm learning that all the advice given to the general public is for the population safety rather than good advice for individual circumstances.

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  #538 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
I like that trade for its reversion to the mean quality plus the dividends, though reversion to mean trades are always dicey in stocks I feel.

Here's a question for you: Let's say oil continues to plummet to 20$/barrell. How far do you think these oil companies will fall, and if none of them would go out of business, then instead of stopping out of them, why not buy additional shares and average down? I know that's a no-non usually, but I'm learning that all the advice given to the general public is for the population safety rather than good advice for individual circumstances.

I am not sure what you mean by "reversion" but I like Enbridge Income fund for both the dividend and its high capital gain potential.... if you look back a bit in the posts I made or just check out the history of news on this stock you will see that Enbridge gave the fund $16B in assets of another company (forget the name right now) for more income stream so that will/has boosted its ability to pay the dividend it pays as well as boosted its share price in rather bad times for most O&G companies.

I like O&G but am out of all companies othre than this one right now.... I shudder to think of the consequences of oil falling to $20/barrel. It would devastate Alberta, Canada's economy. We are very oil dependent here. I can see it falling to $40 though before the games the USA and Saudi Arabia are playing by opening the taps on increase in exporting oil to ruin the economy of Russia...which what this nonsense may be about.

Anyway, What you will see is survival of the fittest...and then a feeding frenzy on the weak companies as they are gobbled up by the strong.

Averaging down is not the way to go since they may be bought out and you would be stuck with losses of real money or much of the gains on the rebound would be just making up the averaging down losses .

Much better to wait for the dust to settle when oil prices bottom.... then the action will start on the buyouts and you will be buying companies on the rise... there are lots of companies on the Canadian markets that are looking very attractive now having lost 50% or more...but I don't like to donate money to their cause if they fall further.

Be patient...save cash for the rebound ... it may be slow in coming though....and not as fast as this decline was.

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  #539 (permalink)
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here is the status of the portfolio...the start to the year sucks

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  #540 (permalink)
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mid week status Jan14/15


The downturn in the price of oil is definitely NOT good for Canadian stocks

You can see this in the two fantasy portfolios I have on this site, the second one being an American one.

https://futures.io/trading-journals/34357-underexposed-american-stock-journal-long-term-3.html#post466334

Other than Chorus Aviation...the rest of the stocks have turned severely down


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I seems that I am unable to discuss the oil prices on the poll because the the thread owner has placed me on ignore. There are several Canadian issues that should be addressed since Canadian O&G industries have lost about 1/2 their share prices since the rapid fall in oil price since mid-Sept. It affects Canada much more than the USA.

I am going to open a Canadian thread on the subject...not for futures trading but swing/long term trading specifically for Canadian stocks.

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