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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #521 (permalink)
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Merry Christmas!!

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  #522 (permalink)
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Well we started off the week on a positive note for the most part.

I have added another limit stop-loss to protect myself against a major decision point that is coming for Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD]

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You can see how the BBWidth is approaching a level where price movements occur (ie. < 12) corresponding to the narrowing of the Bollies.

the Price movement looks fine... It has done the normal thing after recovering from a bottom (note the indication which is the MACD/BBWidth pinch) and that is the price went directly to the 20daySMA and then has wandered along the 20daySMA until it is ready to move again.

What direction??? Look at the Slow Sto and MACD.... they are not giving us a clue at this point. It is critical to watch this...especially if you want to make a buy for long term... this is a pretty neutral chart so far. And if i was looking to add I would look at other charts to get a hint but right now I won't...BUT instead, like I did for TD Bank and Enercare... I will set a limit stop-loss to protect myself in the event this falls suddenly (I would later buy this stock again as I really like this one for long term)

I have set the Limit Stop-loss for [TSX:BAD] at $26.90 - $26.95 which is close to where that bottom occurred

Why $26.95 and not $27.00??? Because in my experience often a stock will fall to a whole number then rebound and I don't want such an action to trip the stop-loss

I have had a good response in TD Bank to the stop loss I set for it... raising it from $52.50 to $53.50 and now the Limit Stop-loss for [TSX:TD] has been raised again to $53.50 - $53.95.... If it keeps on rising I will drop the Limit Stop-loss all together

Enercare is hanging tough so I am leaving the Limit Stop-loss where it currently is.

Good Trading....

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  #523 (permalink)
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the Badger Daylighting limit stop-loss tripped


I wonder what @jackbravo had to say that he deleted. He usually has good questions

Well the price of Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] fell to $26.90 which of course triggered the stop-loss so I am out of that stock and have $14,000 or so to invest somewhere.

this may be due to the recent continued drop to $54.00... with the bulk of its business in the O&G sector I can understand it being in the collateral damage of the oil dive.. But I will follow this stock and look for a bottom ... it is a good company and I look to rebuying the shares later... the loss of this period is trivial at less than $200

I am not sure what I will do with the $14,000 right now. I might just add to the other companies in this portfolio (Enercare would be a good choice if it showed some bullishness.... or I will look for something else... no hurry right now.

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  #524 (permalink)
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I didn't think it was a good question, so I deleted it

I was going to ask...it looks like there's a divergence on the two bottoms on the slow stochastic and the price, with price making higher lows and stochastic making the same low. Does that imply anything to you about future direction?

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  #525 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
I didn't think it was a good question, so I deleted it

I was going to ask...it looks like there's a divergence on the two bottoms on the slow stochastic and the price, with price making higher lows and stochastic making the same low. Does that imply anything to you about future direction?

If you are referring to this chart for Badger Daylighting

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I don't look at the Slow Sto indicator as far as it wanders with respect to Price. It is more of a sentiment indicator to me.

I pay attention to its trend when the Bollies tighten the most.

I also look at its position when the stock is in consolidation after a bull or bearish run.

The Slow Sto usually leads in defining a direction when the bollies are tightening (BBwidth falls to its action level).

you can see this from Oct 14 to Nov 14.... the Slow Sto rises as well as the MACD.... If I had the stock then, which I did not....this would give me confidence to continue holding it... even though the BBwidth just oscillated up and down.

the stage was set for a bullish run on Nov 14ish when the BBwidth suddenly had a positive slope.... that was the trigger (hence the name "trigger chart" to buy more and that was where I did make my purchase.

I played this for a long term hold and probably foolishly ignored the first drop in oil price when Saudi Arabia said NO to production cuts. In retrospect I should have pulled the plug and sold it as a swing...but I did not (Who in his right mind would have predicted $55/barrel oil at that time with the prospect of falling to $5/barrel or less back them???)

there was a MACD/BBwidth pinch which signaled a bottom or perhaps a rest on Dec 15.... As I have often said before... at the end of a bullish or bearish run... the price tends to return to the 20daySMA...which it did and it followed it for a while

HOWEVER, it is not the comparison of the divergence/convergence of the price versus the Slow Sto or MACD that bothered me... rather it was the direction and strength of these indicators as the Bollies were in the last stages of the bollie squeeze that was of concern.

Remember, I said that the Slow Sto gives clues as to direction first and MACD is usually second in this regard.

NOTE: the Slow Sto barely rose above the value of 20 before it turned into a negative trend. Also see how anemic the rise of the MACD looked.

That is a red flag when the bollies are getting tight (BBwidth reaching its normal trigger level (blue line))... this says to me that all is not well for a bullish rise.

So on Monday I issued a statement that I was setting a Limit Stop-Loss for Badger Daylighting of $26.90 - $26.95 and I did this just in time as Tuesday the price fell to $26.90 triggering the sell order which I will assume I would have gotten $26.95 for those shares... My real shares sold at that level so I am pretty confident in that assumption.

So it was the fact that the Slow Sto just barely rose above the so-called "oversold" level and then then reversed direction that bothered me. It may have been nothing but prudence made me apply the Limit Stop-loss. If the slow Sto would have resumed its positive trend I would have looked forward to a bullish breakout in a day or so... but alas, it was not to be.

I will be monitoring the fall of this stock and definitely look to plumbing for the bottom and re-buying the shares as this is a very well run company and the fall in oil prices ... it is caught in the collateral damage of this situation and losing work because of this.

I hope this makes sense to you.... it was not a dumb question at all..... none of your questions are.

Good Trading..........

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  #526 (permalink)
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Status Dec 31/14

this is not a one year status for this portfolio...it is only 11 months as it was started on Feb/2014.

So we are sitting at almost 11% so far and with any luck we will add a few more %... and this is typical of my overall % increase before subtracting expenses... a gross return of about 15% is what I normally get with about 6-9% net % increase after expenses for living are subtracted out....sometimes better...sometimes worse

Here is the status at the end of today's trading

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you will note the sale of Badger Daylighting...there also has been a slight increase in more cash with the addition of a coupe of hundred $ in dividends.

For those following my American journal.... I will start twice weekly status reports starting Wednesday of next week.

Happy New Year and I hope your 2014 trading was good.

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  #527 (permalink)
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well done trading this year!
wish you and your family a happy and safe New Year.

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  #528 (permalink)
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I buy one (american portfolio) and lose one here today.

Looks like I tripped the stop loss for TD Bank [TSX:TD] at $53.95 as shown in this L2 chart

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Now I have over $36,000.00 in cash in this account.

this it financial record for this stock . It was one of the first stock I bought (Feb24/14) and I netted an 11.81% gain as can be seen below

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I am JUST missing out on another $188.00 dividend unfortunately as the ex-dividend date is Jan 10/15. But you cannot hang onto a stock for 4 more days to grab the dividend if it is falling obviously.

The TD bank is a good stock and I would re-buy it if it fell to $50 and showed a bottom there AND of course had some money in the account.

Right now I have about $36000 to reinvest so I will be busy for a while.

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  #529 (permalink)
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well, rather than look for new stocks I decided to first check out stocks that I had previously had in this portfolio

Chorus Aviation [TSX:CHRB] looks really good again

here are the charts


1. P&F Chart


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It looks like it wants to take a shot at breaching the resistance... at $4.60 - 4.65

it deserves a look


2. Trigger Chart


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well ...well... well

look at the Slow Sto.... very bullish rising over 80.... MACD has a nice positive slope
the share price is nicely above the 20daySMA which in turn looks to be recrossing the 50daySMA
the BBwidth has been flat for a while now in a range where breakouts occur.

We sold this in early Sept as it started that plunge... it had risen but fell with many other stocks with the Saudi Oil production non-limit was announced... but that is also good for their operation, something that investors finally realize it seems ... this is not a slam dunk for the conservative player....but.....


3. Sentiment Chart


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This chart is not Bullish but it is not overly bearish either. in the green circle we see improvement in the CMF but it is flirting only with going green... neutral bullish

the blue circle shows the RSI...which is above 50 but a little flat...mildly Bullish

The ADX DI+/- is still bearish though the gap between the red/green lines is narrowing.

Mixed messages though overall neutral as the three cancel out.


4. Ichimoku Chart


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Now this chart is very reveling.

a) in the orange circle...see how the share price is crawling up the upper edge of the green cloud....that upper edge has served as a support... we are approaching the top of that cloud.... mildly Bullish

b) see the thin red/blue lines in that cloud. They are VERY much apart... Bullish

c) the OnBal Vol has a slight positive slope... mildly Bullish

d) the CCI looks Bullish now.... it could fall below 100... but still bullish.


Conclusion

As you can see, each indicator gives a slightly different perspective, A consensus of each is decided to the bullish side

If you are on the conservative side you would wait for the trigger to be pulled. But I think I have seen enough to jump the gun a bit.


here is the intra-day chart for the last few days


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the RSI is rising slightly, the MACD is turning bullish and the BB's are narrowing

I shall enter a Limit to BUY 3000 shares of Chorus Aviation [TSX:CHRB] @ $4.51/ share. If the share price is lower than this value at the bell I will follow it in L2 and get the best price I can.... if it is higher I will leave the bid stand at $4.51

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  #530 (permalink)
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As you can see we have been oscillating above and below $4.51 all morning so my order for 3000 shares of Chorus Aviation [TSX:CHRB] @ $4.51/ share would have filled

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