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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #401 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

If you look at the status for the thread's phantom portfolio that I posted on Friday..there is $17,000 in cash on hand

I went looking for a new stock to spend it on.

I have still been working on my new chart format. I am getting excited about it now as it is so easy to use. I have a whole workbook devoted to Toronto Stock Exchange and its indices. I cannot find historical data on most of them but there are iShare ETF's that mimic the various indices and I can get historical data for them.

The way I am thinking of using these types of chart, is as a mega watch list.

First all I have to do is update the workbook of TSX indices. If one or more of those show improvement then I take the workbook that is devoted to that particular index... I then run the macro on the stocks that contains the stocks for that index to see which ones are really performing.... Then from there I do my regular complete charting analysis to make my final picks......

Sweet!!! I can leave the worksheets of individual stocks alone until I see an improvement in their sub index. Minimal work as a screener.

*******************************************

So here is the result of my quadrant chart analysis. You see I have improved the look a bit... I have added two yellow lines near the center. If the arrows rise into this area then it is becoming bullish... If it is falling into this area then the stock.index is becoming bearish.

The dark line at the top is a warning that the stock is trending really high. If I have had it long enough then I probably set a limit Stop-loss. A stock cannot rise forever...I have been the victim of profit loss countless times because I held a stock to long. So by setting a limit stop loss about 5% down from the current position then I give it a chance to continue rising but if a failure in the trend occurs I will with no emotion sell the stock and make a nice profit.





As you can see the arrows for the index (base metals) and the stock, Lundin Mining Corp [TSX:LUN], engaged in mining copper, zinc, lead and nickel are headed into bullish territory





As you can see from this history, the phantom portfolio has had this stock twice.... losing $335 on the first play but making $1,230 on the second play...

Here is the sharpchart....my "trigger chart" it has the last Indicator in it (Slow Stochastics) which we will discuss in detail tomorrow





You can see the sharp rise in the Slow Sto, MACD and the BBwidth... it looks like the start of a breakout.

Two problems I can see

1. there is a bearish 50daySMA cross of the 200daySMA...but other charts which I won't show here show bull so that is cancelled out IMHO

2. The share price is far above the upper BB....I will use this to determine the price that I will set my bid. Note the upper BB is at $5.33 and the closing price was $5.40... I will be looking for a pullback to somewhere areound that level on Monday.

Here is the last few days in intra-day





Even though this chart looks really bullish, and it has been this way for 3 days, the jump over the upper BB makes me pretty confident I can get it cheaper than the last close...there is a support at $5.30...I think it will fall to there.

So...Just after the Bell on Monday morning trading... I will enter a limit Bid for 3000 shares of LUN.TO @5.30


We shall see if I can get it at that price.

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  #402 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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Underexposed View Post
So...Just after the Bell on Monday morning trading... I will enter a limit Bid for 3000 shares of LUN.TO @5.30


We shall see if I can get it at that price.

Since it has yet to break the 50 SMA, wouldn't it be better to wait for the expected pullback and then enter when it breaks the 50 SMA? Just in case the pullback is stronger than expected.

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  #403 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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Malthus View Post
Since it has yet to break the 50 SMA, wouldn't it be better to wait for the expected pullback and then enter when it breaks the 50 SMA? Just in case the pullback is stronger than expected.

yes, it could fall back from the 50 daySMA...one thing I did not check out is the P&F chart that I use which will show major resistance/supports.... not like the intra-day chart which shows micro-supports.




As you can see...on friday the share price broke out of a small triangle and stopped at a small resistance. There is, over and above the small intra-day support that we found, a support at $5.30 shown in this chart.... so to me this makes $5.30 a decent support...so I don't anticipate a plunge below this level....there may be a spike down to this and perhaps a bit below but I doubt it will close below this level.

Just above the minor resistance at $5.40 I see a stronger band at $5.50 - $5.55....if that is broken then we are golden.

Actually I am testing my new quadrant analysis chart. this is a phantom portfolio, right? It is a place for testing ones ideas. I don't use simulators...I try to make things as close to reality as possible.

The conservative approach would be to wait until the share price broke the 50 and 200 daysma's....if you look at that Sharpchart the broad band of resistance is pretty much similar to the gap between the 50 and 200 daySMA's

from my point of view using this quad chart....the sub index is getting increasingly bullish.... the stock chart is reacting the same....let us see if this is portent of the future.

You will recall I used this chart to make a buy on Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] last week and we are up a couple of % since last Monday.

I guess I seeing if this works again.

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  #404 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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Edit - 6:30PM

I took another look at this chart...especially the time frame between the two charts and I see my thoughts that the time chart showed the end of day trading...and looking at the tick chart I see that was false. My advice of watching the time chart was bang on though....I advised that things looked not bad but to treat it as a watch... not buy and that turned out looking at the times on the tick chart...soon after the price fell.... always wait for that BBwidth trigger...jumping the gun is spinning the one bullet cylinder on a revolver and pulling the trigger...occasionally you get shot

I don't know why there was some missing data. This is the chart until the end of day. As you can see that long was the same head fake we saw in the 2000 tick chart. after that there was the correct short.


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  #405 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Malthus View Post
I don't know why there was some missing data. This is the chart until the end of day. As you can see that long was the same head fake we saw in the 2000 tick chart. after that there was the correct short.

Well I don't really understand the formation of Tick Charts but this seems to be different X-Axis on each .... unless the tick x-axis is not time stamped and means something else




I can see a match where the time chart x-axis time data matches the TICK chart X-Axis time.

There seems to be a lot more data in the Tick chart after the Time chart data, am I not right??

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  #406 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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I can see a match where the time chart x-axis time data matches the TICK chart X-Axis time.

There seems to be a lot more data in the Tick chart after the Time chart data, am I not right??

In my previous post I uploaded the time chart with the rest of the data that was missing. This is the correct match:



In a tick chart time compresses or expands depending on the trading activity (low activity periods are contracted and high activity expanded).

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  #407 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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Malthus View Post
In my previous post I uploaded the time chart with the rest of the data that was missing.

In a tick chart time compresses or expands depending on the trading activity (low activity periods are contracted and high activity expanded).

yes...I understand that but the time numbers of the tick chart go an hour or so beyond that of the Time chart. If anything I would expect the time chart to have its x-axis numbers exceed the tick chart....not the other way around.

The Time chart does not mention any data for after 19:55 but the Tick chart shows data for hours 20:00 and 21:00

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  #408 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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yes...I understand that but the time numbers of the tick chart go an hour or so beyond that of the Time chart. If anything I would expect the time chart to have its x-axis numbers exceed the tick chart....not the other way around.

The Time chart does not mention any data for after 19:55 but the Tick chart shows data for hours 20:00 and 21:00

Look again at the X-axis of the time chart (right half of the last picture I uploaded, remember, the LAST picture I uploaded, not the first one with the missing data).

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 Underexposed 
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Malthus View Post
Look again at the X-axis of the time chart (right half of the last picture I uploaded, remember, the LAST picture I uploaded, not the first one with the missing data).

hahaha....Ok now I see that the time data matches...but in my post (22 hours ago) that I edited the chart that I was working with did not have that extra data.

But my conclusions in that post about the chart looking good but only a watch was correct. Now looking at this extended chart we see





The dotted funny pink arrow shows the end of the data that I previous saw.... the BBwidth was flat as was the MACD with the price located above the 20intervalSMA

As I said then this looks good for a positive breakout but one should only treat this as a watch as things can change.

Within 20 mins or so the MACD now is declining fast.... the BBWidth is still flat... the price is now below the 20 intervalSMA ....this is looking bearish now but you still wait for the sudden rise in the BBWidth.... that is the "trigger" and it happens at approximately 20:20....NOW you know what is going on....it is a start of a bear run and I suppose a Short opportunity if you are into shorting.

The clear bottom is shown at 21:40...with the MACD/BBWidth pinch.... it is the end of THAT (not necessarily future) Bear run and if you were shorting you had a clear indication to cover that short.

So my advice of a "watch" back then was good and now that you show me the rest of that data you can see that following the BBWidth when it is flatlined and very low will pay off eventually.

Sorry for the confusion but it did result as a nice followup once I saw the additional data.

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  #410 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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First I will explain what this indicator is and how I interpret its results (I don't use traditional ways at all with Slow Stochastics (SlowSto).

Then I will discuss its role in this chart combination..

As always I direct you to Stockcharts.com ChartSchool for basic information on this indicator and how it is traditionally interpreted.

Stochastic Oscillator [ChartSchool]

I don't like fast responding indicators... they are too whipsaw for me to interpret so I looked seriously at the Slow Stochastics (Slow Sto) as the one I would investigate.

Slow Sto is an oscillating indicator... it is calculated using the following formula


Quoting 
Fast Stochastic

%K = (Current Close - Lowest Low)/(Highest High - Lowest Low) * 100
%D = 3-day SMA of %K

Lowest Low = lowest low for the look-back period
Highest High = highest high for the look-back period
%K is multiplied by 100 to move the decimal point two places

......

Slow Stochastic Oscillator:

Slow %K = Fast %K smoothed with 3-period SMA
Slow %D = 3-period SMA of Slow %K

So the Close price minus the Lowest price of the last number of days (traditionally 14 days) and divided
by the Highest price in the last number of days (traditionally 14 days) minus the Lowest price of the last number of days (traditionally 14 days) and the result is multiplied by 100 to convert it to a percentage

So if Close = the lowest price the result = zero..... If the Close = the highest price the result = 100.

I don't like signal lines....they are meaningless to me....and I am happy to say I found a way not to disable the signal line...set the D% variable to 1 and the line disappears... another benefit for doing these posts for me.

The Slow Sto is smoothed with a 3daySMA (in a daily chart.)

So to compare the two results look at this chart





The green circle does not show much difference but it is the red circle that I find MUCH better. The share price is rising but the standard 14 day lookback shows the Slow Sto to be less than 50 which is bearish....the 30day lookback shows the Slow Sto to be below 80 but not seriously so.... could this be the indicator I searched months for that would clue me into holding a stock while the price was between major movements???? Obviously you now know the answer is yes , but it took a fair bit of testing to confirm this.

I don't evaluate oscillating indicators like most people. I think they do it wrong frankly.... this includes Slow Stochastics, RSi and CCI.... people get hung up on Overbought and Oversold designations.

Consider the above chart again...just the Slow Sto part. (bottom chart)

1. when the Slow Sto is above 80 is that a Sell sign.... a lot would say so as it is "OVER BOUGHT"

Well if you sold on June 29 @ about $54.00 you would be pissed to watch the price climb til Aug 1 @ about $57.00 . You would have missed $4 of profit on that

2. When the Slow Sto is below 20 is that a Buy aftter all .... a lot would say so as it is "OVER SOLD"

Well if you bought on about Sept 27 @ about $54.00 would you have hung onto this stock til it rose out of the mud on Oct 15 @ about $52 ...you held it 3 weeks for a $2 loss

3. When the Slow Sto is 60 is it bullish or bearish?? How about 40 bullish or bearish??

the single number is meaningless...it is how it got there that is important. On April 24 Slow Sto of 60 is bullish.... On Sept 22 it is bearish....same number different result.

This is how I evaluate Oscillator indicators




you trend the oscillator chart.... if it is buried in the mud (1) it is VERY BEARISH until it crawls above 20 (2) where it is still mildly bearish as it could return. As it approaches 50...especially if it winds around this level (3) the evaluation is neutral as it could go anywhere from there. If it continues to rise it gets more bullish (4) until it gets above 80 where it is very bullish (5) until it falls below 80 again (6) where it is still mildly bullish as it could well reverse back over 80....then we become neutral (7), bearish (8) then very bearish again at (1)

That is how I evaluate oscillators like Slow Sto, RSI and CCI....makes sense to me.

It is getting late and I have a big day tomorrow so I think I will stop here....next major post on this subject will be late Monday where I will discuss how this fits into the Trigger chart

Powerful stuff

Good Trading tomorrow....

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  #411 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Just to confirm the order that I said on Saturday

Entered the order for limit Bid for 3000 shares of LUN.TO @5.30

Edit: I will change the limit price to $5.35...that is the top of the support band, not the bottom. This way I would be more sure to catch a downward spike

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 Underexposed 
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As you can see from this chart that the share price touched $5.35 twice with enough volume that I will consider that my order for 3000 shares has been filled. It may fall again but right now it seems to be returning to the 20 interval SMA for now.

So that buy was complete and shows you that the share price rising high above the upper BB on Friday means pullback

Gotta go now ...will post on the Slow Sto in the evening.

Good trading....

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  #413 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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As I pointed out earlier this morning, I did get my bid for my portfolio here (as well as in reality) It touched the bid price of $5.35 briefly in the morning and at the end of the day it dropped below to $5.33




From the look of it I might have gotten my original bid of $5.30 early tomorrow but a few cents either way doesn't matter much on a long term hold




You can see that we are now comfortably on the Upper BB....that did not have to happen today, it could have taken a few more days. That pattern of pullbacks of share prices that spike above the upper or below the lower BB is VERY useful

You can also see that the chart is still in breakout mode....the BBWidth is still rising as is the MACD and Slow Sto. That resistance we see in the previous P&F chart that I posted about 5 posts ago, appears to be the 50DaySMA

I think this resistance will be severely tested tomorrow and hopefully breached.

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 matevisky 
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Underexposed View Post

You can also see that the chart is still in breakout mode....the BBWidth is still rising as is the MACD and Slow Sto. That resistance we see in the previous P&F chart that I posted about 5 posts ago, appears to be the 50DaySMA

I think this resistance will be severely tested tomorrow and hopefully breached.

I love this. Do what you say, say what you do!

Máté
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 Underexposed 
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matevisky View Post
I love this. Do what you say, say what you do!

thanks...my whole journal has been like that. I do have the advantage of being a long term player so there is no problem documenting the steps. If I was constantly studying a chart for small gains and executing these plays it would not be possible to document thoughts. It is an aspect of long term trading that I like.... it is more relaxed and less stressful once you get the hang of it.

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 Underexposed 
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I have showed you how I set up the Slow Stochastic indicator and how I interpret the patterns which is certainly not the normal way.

This indicator is really useful in helping me to decide whether or not to keep a stock AFTER the end of a bull run. It fills that gap in knowledge.

Enercare Inc [TSX:ECI]





It was not hard to hang onto ECI in that first blue box ....it was never below 50 in the whole time...it was always in the bullish area as the MACD and BBwidth declined.

THe Green box area would have indicated caution but look at the BBwidth...as the Slow Sto was starting to fall....the BBwidth was flat as a board...the trigger was not being pulled...the BBWidth was not rising.

then in the last box the Slow Sto started to rise again... the MACD followed and THEN the BBwidth rose and was the trigger to another bull run.

The dashed pink line shows a potential problem but look at the MACD and BBWidth as the RSI fell....they are flat...no reason to sell .....if the BBwidth kept rising AND the MACD fell that would have been a sign to sell....but that did not happen...the Slow Stow recovered....life is good

Berkshire Hathaway [NYSE:BRK/A]





You have to see how the trigger "group" are acting. Individually they don't give good information all the time but when viewed together it is a different story.

1. the Slow sto is Mildly bullish the whole time....the MACD is pretty flat...the BBwidth is dead-assed flt.... no reason to buy or sell.

2 Before this box, the Slow sto and MACD fall and the BBwidth starts to rise.... Is this a time to sell??? Wait! the price fell below the lower BB...is it a head fake? Yes it is....the Slow sto reverses direction, the MACD does too...the BBwidth resumes its climb....it is the start of a bullish run , confirmed on Aug 11 when the real breakout occurs.

3. the Slow STO starts a severe decline....so does the MACD...if the BBWidth rose suddenly it would be a clear sell sign....but it doesn't react like the others. It ends with the price falling below the Lower BB...another head fake. The Slow sto starts to rise... the MACD halts its fall the small rise in the BBwidth falls back....no reason to sell

4. the Slow Sto and MACCD continue to rise Nov 1 the BBwidth rises suddenly....another bullish rise has begun.


Silver (eod)





1. No reason to buy until June 14 ...see how the Slow Sto leads the way with a rise....the MACD follows then the BBwidth triggers the buy

2. All is bullish with the Slow Sto...no problem in the consolidation stage of the price.

3. trouble on the horizon...Slow Sto falls along with the MACD...Aug 25 the BBwith rises....time to sell then (Aug 25)

4 See how the Slow Sto drops into the mud and stays there... the decline of the MACD...the rise of the BBWidth means nothing on Sept 22...this is still a bear....On Oct 4 there is a MACD/BBwidth Pinch....the fall is over ....If this was a stock and you were shorting it over this period it would be time to cover that short.

5. Is the fall over??? Nopes , it was just a rest the Slow sto Starts to rise but never clears the bearish territory...the BBwidth falls during this time...no trigger, no buy signal. At Oct 29 the BBwidth suddenly rises sharply...the MACD and Slow sto is falling .....another bear run begins


Conclusion

See how you build a story ... how each indicator contributes to the conclusion.

here are some rules I follow in this chart now that it is complete.


1. A bull run start occurs with the rise of the Slow Sto, followed by the MACD rising and triggered by the sudden rise of the BBwidth

2. A bear run starts with the fall of the Slow Sto, followed by the MACD falling and triggered by the sudden rise of the BBwidth

3. the end of a bull run occurs when the MACD and BBwidth BOTH reverse direction and turn negative.

4. The end of a bear run occurs when the MACD turns positive and BBwidth turns negative ( MACD/BBwidth pinch)

5. The decision to hold a stock through the consolidation period following a bull run, depends on the Slow sto remaining above 80 preferably or at least above 50 if the BBwidth remains flat.

6. At the end of a bear run, it will be just a rest if the Slow Sto does not rise

7. Following a bull or bear run...there is a consolidation period....the share price in both cases will tend to gravitate toward the 20daySMA and twist around this line until the BBwidth falls to its "trigger" level

8. Rises above or falls below the Upper/lower BB by share price usually last 2-5 days. If they occur near the end of a bull run they are definite sell signals as the share price will plummet soon after....despite pumpers saying this stock is "going to the moon"

**********************
It is getting late and I am sure I could think of a few more things if I tried.

This is a VERY useful chart...I have 3 others that I use during a consolation period to try to predict the direction when the BB's get tight.

I may talk about those charts in the future but I am going to take a break from lecturing for a while.

If you, the readers, want to have me give a reading of this chart on anything with a price/time chart I enjoy challenges like that. while it sort of worked on tick charts it was not as clear to read though.

Lots to talk about, eh......what you have read in the last 2 weeks took me 3-5 years to figure out...If you like this chart and practice its use I think you will benefit a lot.

Good trading.....

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  #417 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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Very interesting chart. I tried with a 10 min chart of the ES. Correct me if you see something different.

1 - Price breaks the upper Band but BBwidth never triggers and MACD is bearish, so we stay out.

2 - Short setup that quickly reverses, but we keep our short since BB is flat. SMA holds and price starts to fall again.

3 - Another possible short entry but risky since it's against resistance.

4 - BB falling, MACD rising and Sto rising, time to get out of our short.

5 - This was a possible short but BB was not on the trigger zone.

6 - Another short opportunity.

Feel free to comment. Here is the clean chart of the same day.

EDIT: I re uploaded them:



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  #418 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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Malthus View Post
Very interesting chart. I tried with a 10 min chart of the ES. Correct me if you see something different.




1 - Price breaks the upper Band but BBwidth never triggers and MACD is bearish, so we stay out.

2 - Short setup that quickly reverses, but we keep our short since BB is flat. SMA holds and price starts to fall again.

3 - Another possible short entry but risky since it's against resistance.

4 - BB falling, MACD rising and Sto rising, time to get out of our short.

5 - This was a possible short but BB was not on the trigger zone.

6 - Another short opportunity.

Feel free to comment. Here is the clean chart of the same day.


@Malthus, it looks like your charts have succumbed to the dread futures.io (formerly BMT) Disappearing Chart Syndrome .... at least, I can't see them. I've noticed that sometimes they vanish, although I think the person who posted them can still see them.

Could you reload?

Thanks.

Good conversation here, by the way....

Bob.

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 Malthus 
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Bob.

Can you see them now? I could see them so I didn't know the rest of you couldn't

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Malthus View Post
Can you see them now? I could see them so I didn't know the rest of you couldn't

Yes, they are there now.

This happens. I recall that @Underexposed has commented on it also in another thread. -- An un-diagnosed futures.io (formerly BMT) glitch.

Sometimes I get it on a long post, and it's possible that it's the time I keep the edit window open, more than the actual post length in words. I don't know.

I've taken to not uploading charts until I've written everything else, unless it's all short....

Thanks.

These bands/indicators do make for an interesting topic.

Bob.

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Malthus View Post
Can you see them now? I could see them so I didn't know the rest of you couldn't

I can too....yeah that is a pain when you have long posts

Another trick is that I can add back those images through editing

When you see the images disappear, if you catch it soon enough you can edit them back in.

You do that by pressing the edit option but you see no option to add attachments.....but if you press "Go Advanced" then the window turns into a normal window and you will see the original attachments there but for some reason they are not valid....

Now you can simply re-attach those graphics and the erase the bad ones and embed the good ones,


......................................

Keeping the original window open long time does not seem to be the problem for text...only the attachments. I have thought there was tome time constraint on the attachment window but cannot prove it or reproduce it.

so I do the text and inserts like this now



Quoting 
words words words words words words words words word swords words words
words words words words words words words words word swords words words
words words words words words words words words word swords words words

===========> Insert graphic here

words words words words words words words words word swords words words
words words words words words words words words word swords words words
words words words words words words words words word swords words words

After I finish the verbage I go back and upload the attachments and replace the

=========> insert graphic here

With the appropriate attachment.

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Malthus View Post
Very interesting chart. I tried with a 10 min chart of the ES. Correct me if you see something different.

1 - Price breaks the upper Band but BBwidth never triggers and MACD is bearish, so we stay out.

2 - Short setup that quickly reverses, but we keep our short since BB is flat. SMA holds and price starts to fall again.

3 - Another possible short entry but risky since it's against resistance.

4 - BB falling, MACD rising and Sto rising, time to get out of our short.

5 - This was a possible short but BB was not on the trigger zone.

6 - Another short opportunity.

Feel free to comment. Here is the clean chart of the same day.

EDIT: I re uploaded them:



Interesting chart and thanks for your comments on my last post

I looked at the blank one to point out some things but something seemed wrong.

I think you have the wrong "lookback" on the Slow Stochastics chart.... it would appear to me you have a 20 day lookback,,,,,not a 30day look back.

Could you do the 3 charts this time with the proper Stochastics parameter....it really does make a difference

Could you do it in a one hour for a long term hold, 10 min and 5min to see which would be the best short swing chart.

Very interesting stuff

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bobwest View Post

These bands/indicators do make for an interesting topic.

Bob.

yes it is interesting to see my ideas applied to commodities like this

Could you perhaps post a chart here on a different subject than @Malthus

the indicator parameters to use are

Stochastics k%(30), d%(3) and if you have the option of stochastic type use Slow Stochastic .... not Fast Stochastic. The Slow Stochastic is the fast stochastic with a 3 timeInterval SMA applied

MACD (12,26) no signal line

and BBwidth (20,2)

If you can post 3 charts 1hour, 10 min and 5 min interval that would be great

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 bobwest 
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yes it is interesting to see my ideas applied to commodities like this

Could you perhaps post a chart here on a different subject than @Malthus

the indicator parameters to use are

Stochastics k%(30), d%(3) and if you have the option of stochastic type use Slow Stochastic .... not Fast Stochastic. The Slow Stochastic is the fast stochastic with a 3 timeInterval SMA applied

MACD (12,26) no signal line

and BBwidth (20,2)

If you can post 3 charts 1hour, 10 min and 5 min interval that would be great

Sure, but probably tonight or in the morning... trading now, business meetings later.

I'll pick something, though, and put up some charts. I suspect it may not matter too much what instruments you choose; markets are markets.

But we'll see.

Bob.

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 Malthus 
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5 MIN


10MIN


30MIN


60MIN

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Malthus View Post
5 MIN


60MIN

I see an excellent and ongoing long play in the hourly chart





See how the Slow Sto keeps you positive.

the play starts on the right with the rise of the Slow sto then the MACD followed by the BBwidth trigger.

Mid Nov 13 to mid Nov 15 looks like a sell from the look of the Price and and Slow Sto....but look below at the BBwidth and MACD....no dramatic up slope on the BBwith and the MACD stayed basically flat. Also note the fall beneath the lower BB....head fake to me

I would have stayed the course here and continue to hold

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I find it more difficult to see opportunity in the shorter timeframes. I suppose this is due to the rapid changes that occur and the difficulty to respond in a timely fashion



I did see a couple of long opportunities....the one on the left is very short but is preceded by a double bottom in the price. The last one is the bast and has just strated on the right.

There was a reasonable short in the orange box.

I have to say the one hour chart is easier to read.

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 bobwest 
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yes it is interesting to see my ideas applied to commodities like this

Could you perhaps post a chart here on a different subject than @Malthus

the indicator parameters to use are

Stochastics k%(30), d%(3) and if you have the option of stochastic type use Slow Stochastic .... not Fast Stochastic. The Slow Stochastic is the fast stochastic with a 3 timeInterval SMA applied

MACD (12,26) no signal line

and BBwidth (20,2)

If you can post 3 charts 1hour, 10 min and 5 min interval that would be great


bobwest View Post
Sure, but probably tonight or in the morning... trading now, business meetings later.

I'll pick something, though, and put up some charts. I suspect it may not matter too much what instruments you choose; markets are markets.

But we'll see.

Bob.

Sorry to take so much time to get some charts up.

Since you mentioned to try something other than what @Malthus posted, I decided on Crude Oil futures (CL), because:

1. They should have no relationship or similarity to the S&P 500 futures (ES) that @Malthus put up, or to any other equity-based future or chart;
2. I don't a single thing about Crude, so it would be new to me, too.

Before posting the charts, I want to go into the question of time vs. tick charts. (Sorry if this is already well-known to you, but I think it matters here.)

You probably know that futures are essentially traded around the clock. But there are definite periods when the number of people trading, and the size they are trading, is very much higher than other times. Generally, the high-volume times are what are called the "Regular trading hours." This pretty much matches the NY session for equities or the Chicago session for commodities. After that is the Asian session, until the early morning in Eastern time, and the European session, from about 2:00AM ET to about 11:30. The "pit" or regular session overlaps that, usually beginning 9:00 or 9:30 ET.

So basically, for most futures, a pure time chart will have a long expanse of trading hours when not much goes on, and where the trading probably is not actually significant.... and then a short span when all the major activity happens.

OK, so here are some charts, at last .

I had to look up the regular trading hours for Crude, which I marked on the charts. I am also showing the volume, which, I think, tells a story. First, time charts:











Then I took a stab at setting up some tick charts that are roughly comparable to the time charts, in terms of the space given to the regular hours. Tick charts build their bars based only on the number of trades; a 7500 tick chart's bars all have 7500 trades in them. Volume is not exactly the same for each bar, but it will be close. Importantly, the parts of the roughly 23 hours of the trading day that are not too busy get only the chart space that their activity warrants.

At least, that's the way I look at it.... We can look and see how that theory works out with these indicators:












Lastly, here's the daily chart for comparison:






A long post, sorry about that. If these ideas are not new to anyone, I apologize for going on so long about them.

I hope that this post does not suffer from the futures.io (formerly BMT) Disappearing Chart Glitch.... I'm posting all the charts at once after writing the text. You'll have to tell me if they don't make it up.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
Sorry to take so much time to get some charts up.

Before posting the charts, I want to go into the question of time vs. tick charts. (Sorry if this is already well-known to you, but I think it matters here.)

You probably know that futures are essentially traded around the clock. But there are definite periods when the number of people trading, and the size they are trading, is very much higher than other times. Generally, the high-volume times are what are called the "Regular trading hours." This pretty much matches the NY session for equities or the Chicago session for commodities. After that is the Asian session, until the early morning in Eastern time, and the European session, from about 2:00AM ET to about 11:30. The "pit" or regular session overlaps that, usually beginning 9:00 or 9:30 ET.

So basically, for most futures, a pure time chart will have a long expanse of trading hours when not much goes on, and where the trading probably is not actually significant.... and then a short span when all the major activity happens.

From a TA perspective, I see no advantages to Tick charts over Time charts. So I want to address that in your excellent post first.

This increased activity is compressed to compensate for long periods of relative inactivity.

I hear so much on this site that "indicators are useless" and following "price action" is the better approach. It is no wonder, to me that standard TA indicators do not work well under these circumstances. They were designed to work in a constant interval environment.

It is sort of like my comments on MACD where I state that the shorter the interval the less error in the calculation of the averages for the MACD


Quoting 
But why are shorter interval MACD charts better than longer term charts

This bothered me for years but in preparing this post I had a bright idea....What are the Standard deviations in the long term intervals versus the short term intervals.

Well I am not sure how to compute a Std Deviation of a EMA (it is really an artificial average....but I looked at SIMPLE MOVING averages (SMA)

And this is what I found




Wow.... the Std deviation at a weekly interval on a % of the average is HUGE compared to that of a 5 min interval by a factor of 30-50.

So there is the reason for me anyway....the smaller the interval....the less error in the calculation of the MACD... now it makes sense to me.

Well with Tick charts you compound that error, since the averages are based on a variable timeframed closing price in the case of MACD....for Slow Stochastics or Stochastics in general...you select a certain lookback (I use 30 time intervals) but in one case that might be 30...in another it could be 100 due to inactivity and compression

These indicators would not be valid at all. Even Bolliger Bands may also suffer.

It would take a lot of checking to see if that was true or not.


So there should be a whole new types of Indicators that be applied to Tick charts...but I doubt that is done...it would be the same indicators used in equal time charts.


Let me ask another question (excuse my ignorance on the subject as I do not trade these things in reality.

If the market is now displaying Asian market numbers....can you still buy/sell on this market? Is it more difficult due to fewer traders available to accept you buy/sell bids? Or is there sufficient volume for trades but you just don't get the "ACTION" of volatility in the price?

I ask this because when I watch trading here on BM, I am shocked at how traders are scalping such small intervals... trades that last MAYBE 10-20mins.... in and out. Rarely do I see a hold of over 1 hour.

When I look at the North American market charts also, I see a lot of volatility. Charting becomes more difficult the more fluctuations that are occurring within a time period Predictions that I can easily make in the Stock market are not as easy in the commodities market...you have to watch that chart like a hawk as I see it.....very stressful.

Perhaps the quieter Asian market numbers are easier to work with?

So in summary, now that I understand the different between time and tick interval charts...I doubt very much that traditional indicators apply at all AND if they are used may result in incorrect conclusions.

PS: your charts came through fine.... As I have stated before, it is when you insert graphics as you need them as you create a post taking15 or more mins to create that the trouble with disappearing charts occur IMHO. leaving markers in your post where you want the graphics then overwriting those markers with the graphics as a last step seems to be the solution.... a mystery , the problem is.

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 bobwest 
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I'm busy all day today, unfortunately, so I can only hit some high points.

I use the "traditional" indicators in assorted ways, not always traditional in the sense that the elementary books say (I don't think I want to sell just because an oscillator is "overbought" for instance -- it can stay that way a long time ), but I have, and do, use them the same way on tick charts as I would on daily charts. And, over time, I expect I have used most of them. (Bollingers and Bollinger Width too. )

I'll have to pass on a more detailed discussion on that right now; but I did go through a period when I wondered whether not having fixed time periods would mess them up, and I decided it did not.... not that I am asking you to just accept that, of course . At some point that would have to be shown to be right or not. But I did want to say that I'm no stranger to the question. Maybe later we can go further into it....

I agree that many, many who post on futures.io (formerly BMT) are trying to scalp for little tiny moves. This is not necessarily a good idea, because you can be wrong much faster that way. And, of course, it's easy to be wrong in the markets. Also, with futures there is enormous leverage, which can magnify losses as well as gains. And I think most people who try it are going to face disappointment or disaster. Many have never traded live before, and have dreams of endless riches in their heads.

For what it's worth, I have had experience over a period of time doing longer-term trading: stocks, ETF's and options on them. However, right now I am working to become good at trading futures for the "little tiny moves" I just wrote about. So far, I have to say I'm still learning. Slowly.

But it gives me something to do, and I don't have to worry about earning a living, so I am doing it. That does not mean that I have no interest or familiarity with anything else, nor that I am focused on only one thing.

I wanted to put that in, just in the interest of disclosure.

Back to the discussion, I have no beef with indicators. On futures.io (formerly BMT) the fashion shifts now and again, as, I suspect, the naive find out that they lose money with method x, so they try method y. I do not attribute indicators being out of favor to tick charts or any other charts, and I do see people using them on tick charts, and some other fairly odd things, and they work, when the person using them can make them work. Anyway, that may all be for another day.

As to the Asian session, my only point is that the trading that occurs then does not have the power to move the markets much in the sense of where the whole day ends up. In other words, most of the time, if you look at a daily bar, the trading that caused it to do whatever it did probably came from the regular session. If price goes one way with small participation, what the heavy-hitting traders do during the regular hours will have much more real impact, either way.

So, if someone is trading based on daily bars, they are basically seeing and relying mostly on what was done during the regular hours, anyway.

I would not want to trade much during the non-regular hours (sometimes called pre-market hours) because the light activity, in my opinion, makes any move thin and fairly suspect. Sure, you can trade electronically any time over the roughly 23-hour period, but I don't think the low-participation times are that reliable. (If I did, it would be with tick charts.)

There's another way to skin this cat that I see people do, which is chart only the regular hours. So for a stock, that is the NY open to the close. I think that most (almost all) minute or hour-based charts of stocks do it that way, because very few stocks will trade outside the regular close. (I may be out of date on this, it's been a while since I looked at stocks.) But if you chart ES (S&P 500 futures) on a regular hours-only basis, which many people do, then you have exactly the same type of chart.

Does it work? Yeah. Because it just cuts off the less-consequential part of the trading day and focuses on the main part. That is not too different from tick charts compressing the less-consequential part. I do like to know what has happened before the regular session, because it's not completely inconsequential, but I take it as a hint, not much more.

My main beef with only plotting the regular hours is that it can give discontinuous jumps if price gaps up or down from the previous close, which will distort indicators some in early trading. I do think they are robust enough to withstand it, though. Also, I do want to know if the open will have a gap, and the only way to know is to look at the pre-market.

I wish I could go on, but time is not something I ever have enough of, and I will just keep typing unless I stop now.

As to these questions, though, I think there is a potential test case in applying the tools you use to different markets that are sliced up in different ways (tick/time/whatever).

If you can take a look at the charts I put up, I'd be interested in what you think, whether on the time or the tick charts.

Thanks for reading all this (assuming you did ). I do get carried away....

Bob.

Edit: as a PS, all I ever actually trade is the ES (S&P 500 index futures) and sometimes YM (Dow 30 futures), mostly in the regular session. I'm really a stock-market guy still, and I have never traded a traditional "commodity" like Crude oil. They scare the hell out of me....

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bobwest View Post

I use the "traditional" indicators in assorted ways, not always traditional in the sense that the elementary books say (I don't think I want to sell just because an oscillator is "overbought" for instance -- it can stay that way a long time ), but I have, and do, use them the same way on tick charts as I would on daily charts. And, over time, I expect I have used most of them. (Bollingers and Bollinger Width too. )

Well we are on the same page wrt Overbought/oversold as I have posted against that already.

But the interpretation of things like MACD and Slow Sto seem horribly flawed to me...again as I pointed out.


bobwest View Post
I agree that many, many who post on futures.io (formerly BMT) are trying to scalp for little tiny moves. This is not necessarily a good idea, because you can be wrong much faster that way. And, of course, it's easy to be wrong in the markets. Also, with futures there is enormous leverage, which can magnify losses as well as gains. And I think most people who try it are going to face disappointment or disaster. Many have never traded live before, and have dreams of endless riches in their heads.

It is unpredictable to the point it seems like gambling to me.....however, I say this without really understanding "Price Action" trading. I think price action is a system designed for tick charts...it may be the TA for Tick charts, I don't know but I see no reason for me to investigate it as I am fine with what I have developed


bobwest View Post
Back to the discussion, I have no beef with indicators. On futures.io (formerly BMT) the fashion shifts now and again, as, I suspect, the naive find out that they lose money with method x, so they try method y. I do not attribute indicators being out of favor to tick charts or any other charts, and I do see people using them on tick charts, and some other fairly odd things, and they work, when the person using them can make them work. Anyway, that may all be for another day.

Again I think indicator interpretation in Tick charts being the same as that of normal time charts is fraught with danger. They are not calculated properly so how can they give the same interpretation...and I as I previously said the results have a compounded error in that each candle stick contains a different range of time.

Has a study been done on the applicability of time indicators in tick charts? if there is I would love to read it.


bobwest View Post
As to the Asian session, my only point is that the trading that occurs then does not have the power to move the markets much in the sense of where the whole day ends up. In other words, most of the time, if you look at a daily bar, the trading that caused it to do whatever it did probably came from the regular session. If price goes one way with small participation, what the heavy-hitting traders do during the regular hours will have much more real impact, either way.

I am not sure that this is a blanket observation. It may apply to OIL/Gas because there is comparatively little interest in those commodities in Asia. But I think wrt Precious Metals...Gold, Silver and the like....especially Gold where the purchases of Gold is huge in India, China and Asia in general... the effects on trading in these commodities seem to travel world round with influence on the NY market when it opens.


So, if someone is trading based on daily candles, they are basically seeing and relying mostly on what was done during the regular hours, anyway... eliminating the Asian data will have little influence....UNLESS for some reason there was an issue that sparked vigorous activity in Asia...if this happened you would be ignoring something that may have a heavy influence on the NY market.

So... with the action is little Asian markets contribute little to the daily candle but if it is vigourous ti would I think if there was such data I would want to see it in a chart..


bobwest View Post
I would not want to trade much during the non-regular hours (sometimes called pre-market hours) because the light activity, in my opinion, makes any move thin and fairly suspect. Sure, you can trade electronically any time over the roughly 23-hour period, but I don't think the low-participation times are that reliable. (If I did, it would be with tick charts.)

I will agree as far as trading goes....why track data though that you won't use??? Does compressing it make it more valid? I don't think so.

I think you will find my analysis (next post) on some (not all) interesting.


bobwest View Post
There's another way to skin this cat that I see people do, which is chart only the regular hours. So for a stock, that is the NY open to the close. I think that most (almost all) minute or hour-based charts of stocks do it that way, because very few stocks will trade outside the regular close. (I may be out of date on this, it's been a while since I looked at stocks.) But if you chart ES (S&P 500 futures) on a regular hours-only basis, which many people do, then you have exactly the same type of chart.

Does it work? Yeah. Because it just cuts off the less-consequential part of the trading day and focuses on the main part. That is not too different from tick charts compressing the less-consequential part. I do like to know what has happened before the regular session, because it's not completely inconsequential, but I take it as a hint, not much more.

As you will see, I would ONLY trade in OIL/GAS during the NY hours....I would have to see gold charts to have an opinion there.

Agreed... I would not ignore the rest of the world action as it may be a prelude to the NY market.


bobwest View Post
My main beef with only plotting the regular hours is that it can give discontinuous jumps if price gaps up or down from the previous close, which will distort indicators some in early trading. I do think they are robust enough to withstand it, though. Also, I do want to know if the open will have a gap, and the only way to know is to look at the pre-market.

I don't really agree on that...compressing the data does not enhance the interpretation/calculation of indicators in a tick chart...and frankly is normal in a time chart. In a stock chart, there are stocks that often have periods of small activity...nothing is done to compensate for this in interpreting the chart...has not bothered me anyway ... if anything I would probably ignore the stock all together.

Don't forget...indicators take time to ramp up to their true levels... MACD take 26 time intervals or tick intervals to get the first valid number....Slow Sto takes 30 time intervals or 30 tick intervals to get up to speed. If you ignore the Europe and Asian data you are ignoring the normal values... In the case of Tick data from the sounds of it you may be ignoring much more data in the calculation in the NY market simply because one tick may be several times more time than a constant time interval.



bobwest View Post
Thanks for reading all this (assuming you did ). I do get carried away....

Obviously I have ... you have an interesting POV. I may not agree on all points but what you say is interesting to me... this is how I learn my TA ... I have missed such discussions for 9 months on this site.

Next post I will comment on your charts...I have worked on a few already....but this post is long enough as it is

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 bobwest 
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It is unpredictable to the point it seems like gambling to me.....however, I say this without really understanding "Price Action" trading. I think price action is a system designed for tick charts...it may be the TA for Tick charts, I don't know but I see no reason for me to investigate it as I am fine with what I have developed

"Price action" has nothing to do with tick charts as such, nor necessarily short-term charts or trading. It is drawing trend lines and channels, support and resistance, and chart patterns. Usually with no indicators at all, except sometimes a moving average. It is the most traditional technical analysis possible, the original technical analysis of the early chartists.

It was recently popularized, or re-popularized, by Al Brooks, who only uses 5-minute charts of the regular session of the S&P futures, with 15 and 60 minute as context. (And daily/weekly/monthly for long-term perspective.)

By the way, most people probably don't use tick charts, not that it matters. Just wanted to fill in some context.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
"Price action" has nothing to do with tick charts as such, nor necessarily short-term charts or trading. It is drawing trend lines and channels, support and resistance, and chart patterns. Usually with no indicators at all, except sometimes a moving average. It is the most traditional technical analysis possible, the original technical analysis of the early chartists.

It was recently popularized, or re-popularized, by Al Brooks, who only uses 5-minute charts of the regular session of the S&P futures, with 15 and 60 minute as context. (And daily/weekly/monthly for long-term perspective.)

By the way, most people probably don't use tick charts, not that it matters. Just wanted to fill in some context.

Bob.

{shrug} then I do price action without putting a name to it...I should do more trending in the main chart than I do but my success using my charts as they are makes me somewhat complacent. I think using trends is really important but I see many using horizontal trends only....diagonal trends don't appear as often.

I should do a post on trending in short interval (5 min) stock charts.... that combined with normal MACD c/w signal line should be a winner to me for swing trades

I do see a lot of tick charts on this site though.


Anyway let us look at your charts.

I will start by saying I have a much easier time looking at Time interval charts rather than tick charts of any stripe. I seem to get more readable charts with equal time intervals....the tick chart indicators give me mixed signals

Tick Charts

We will start with the CL7500 Tick chart





I only see 3 trades in all of that data and the second one is hardly worth while.

Starting from the left there is a short. I am not sure if we would see such a drop earlier or the bottom faster in a time chart but it seems late to me. As such it would be a reasonable short, I would expect. I don't like the indication in that yellow circle though...mixed messages in the slow Sto and MACD...I cannot decide if it is a "rest" or "recovery"

I see a poor trade later with the dashed lines... the trigger is very late and the peaks come too late making it not a great trade.

Then there is a reasonable trigger for another short... late again but to do it earlier is dicey..... here is the problem....I don't see a MACD/BBwidth pinch so that would not be a very analytical trade. I suppose I should have made it to the left of that thicker grey line but I'd be guessing....

At the end I have little clue as to the direction of the price....mixed messages (slow Sto high, MACD finally playing catch-up (sort of) and no clue what the BBwidth will do)

You will note: I am removing the black background in the indicators 'cause I cannot see the lines well otherwise.


CL1500 tick chart





I don't see anything here I would hazard a trade on.

the Bottom indicated by the MACD/BBwidth pinch did not even skip a beat in the downward plunge of the price


Equal Time Interval Charts


Daily Time Chart

I have a little more confidence on these charts





from the left, there is a clear bottom here.... see the rise of the MACD and the Slow Sto along with the drop of the BBwidth following the "Pinch"... very clear

then the next trade is clear...the proper trigger is the solid green line....personally I would not have used the dashed green line. an Absolutely classic (for my TA) sell sign with the solid red line showing all three indicators in neg slope. I don't know how much you would gain from this but it looks like more than I normally see.

I don't see much that would grab my attention until the blue box.

the left edge of that blue box shows a rising BBwidth with falling MACD and Slow Stop....a better and not much different entry for the short is shown by the Green dashed line just before August.

Either way this is the beginning of a LONG short.... the Slow sto stays low until Oct.....there is no clear sign to cover your short as the BBwidth stays up until the 1st week of October. By the time it rises the Slow Sto and MACD take another plunge....this is where you could start a short if you did not earlier, add to the existing short if you could do that (sorry I don't short ) or just treat this as confirmation that the short you started in July is still viable.

Note the "pinch" in the circle.... it is obviously a rest....the MACD and Slow Sto stay in the mud and the price falls more... not end in sight so far.

So easy to chart

5 min chart





This is an interesting chart. I really see only one play here...and you are right...it takes place during the highly active NY market.... shown by the blue box.

See how well defined that buy signal is...the pinch is a bit late BUT look at that little yellow circle .... the price is driven below the lower BB.... pullback time....there is your clue the bottom is found. I would not necessarily buy on the pinch as I show.... but the dashed green line is definitely a buy(rising slow Sto/MACD/BBwidth)

The sell signal is not as clear HOWEVER note the yellow circle contents....the price is above the upper BB....there is the clue to exit the trade.

now you see that the trade is reduced....but it is still there...activity in the Slow Sto...the BBwidth gets tighter. I would surely pay attention to the opening in Europe and then in NY since a major move is in the offing... on the left side you see the European action heading into the NY time.... significant trading that I would not was to ignore.


Conclusion

Time charts are much easier for me to interpret. It is obvious here

One chart I would like to see is a time and tick chart for one day....with only MACD complete with 9 intervalEMA signal line

that might be even better at getting thos smaller trades.

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 bobwest 
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Conclusion

Time charts are much easier for me to interpret. It is obvious here

One chart I would like to see is a time and tick chart for one day....with only MACD complete with 9 intervalEMA signal line

that might be even better at getting thos smaller trades.

Thanks. It'll take a while to digest and have a comment, but it is interesting.

Basically, it's fine with me whatever you find that works for you. I am interested in these types of indicators (Bollingers, BB pinch, etc.) and it's fun to try things out in new ways.

I didn't realize that to tick or not to tick would ever become an issue.... but, OK, no problem. Different strokes for different folks.

I'll want to go back and do some review of the earlier posts in this thread because I scanned through some of them (my bad). I do like the overall use of the BB's, the pinch and the other indicators.

I like this kind of trying out new ideas to see where they go. I'll do what I can to add something, or at least try to, as soon as I can pry loose some time.

Thanks for the updates.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
Thanks. It'll take a while to digest and have a comment, but it is interesting.

Basically, it's fine with me whatever you find that works for you. I am interested in these types of indicators (Bollingers, BB pinch, etc.) and it's fun to try things out in new ways.

All I am doing is showing what works for me and what doesn't. I am also open to different ideas. If you have an approach that you are willing to share, I am all ears.

I am not trying to convert anyone to my approach. If you like what I do....fine. I think I have presented it in such a manner that it can be used by others. For the newbies that read these posts...there are many ways to skin the charting cat...I obviously like what I do and continually add to my approach as I learn more and more about charting...there is no end to it.


bobwest View Post
I didn't realize that to tick or not to tick would ever become an issue.... but, OK, no problem. Different strokes for different folks.

well I just did not say "I don't like Tick Charts". I think I presented pretty good reasons for not liking Tick charts with indicators


bobwest View Post
I'll want to go back and do some review of the earlier posts in this thread because I scanned through some of them (my bad). I do like the overall use of the BB's, the pinch and the other indicators.

I like this kind of trying out new ideas to see where they go. I'll do what I can to add something, or at least try to, as soon as I can pry loose some time.

Your time, charts and comments are great....this dialog was what I have missed in this website...not only yourself but also @Malthus and @ matevisky and others are making welcome contributions.

Come back whenever you can

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Well this is yet another good week. If this hangs on til Friday we shall have 5 positive weekly returns...a record in this portfolio as you can see.

Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] and Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] recently purchased following help from my new Quadrant Chart are performing very well indeed....The year end for this portfolio is the first week of Feb next year...at this rate we should clear the 10% return for the year.

Here is the current status




Good trading

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 Itchymoku 
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can you show me with some charts and indies of your favorite setup?

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Itchymoku View Post
can you show me with some charts and indies of your favorite setup?

Welcome to the this thread.

I can show you a couple of charts that make up my "Trigger chart" which identifies price breakouts for stocks but to describe how this chart is used has been a major topic of this thread in this journal for the last ten days. It takes time to learn how I do interpret this chart (I will give examples below) that is why I went through each overlay and indicator that I use.



this is the starting point of the discussion. It is a lot to read to get from there to here but Hopefully , it will be understandable if you wade through this and you find it interesting.

I don't do futures, commodities or forex but I believe I have dealt with examples of such charts over the course of this discussion. Recently the subject of "Tick" charts versus normal "time" charts has come up. I find it difficulct to interpret Tick charts...there are a lot of lags and mixed messages in the indicators (Slow Stochastics and MACD especially) and I believe that these indicators are improperly calculated when Tick data is used and so it does not surprice me now when I here traders here say that indicators are useless. These and other indicators were never designed with tick data in mind.

Here are some charts using my "Trigger chart"

Equity Stock - Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]





it is late and I will only give a quick status of this stock.

On about Oct 18 the stock reached a bottom as shown by the MACD/BBwidth "pinch". The drop of the price below the lower Bollinger band is a huge portent of a bottom as well.

The start of the slide in price was on Sept 22 with the rise of the BBwidth and drop of the Slow Stochastics and MACD

After the bottom the stock is in consolidation (typically by rising to meet the 20day SMA) until Oct 29 where the BBwidth rises along with the Slow Sto and MACD.

Currently the stock may be nearing a top as $57.50 looks like a resistance point....the BBwidth is curling at this point but the other 2 indicators are still strong so that resistance will be at least attacked.

I have 2 other charts that have not been discussed yet that might shed light on if the the attack would be successful or not....however that is for another time .... after 10 days of lecturing on this chart I am not ready to start another chart discussion at this point....


Commodity - Gold [$Gold]




Gold has been hard to predict, long term. There are a couple of times it looked like a bottom to this decline has been found only to see the slide continue since July14. Currently there is the start of a MACD/BBwidth pinch but to be complete the MACD must have a positive slope and the BBwidth a negative slope but both are flat. So currently it is only a "rest" and gold could drop further.

Forex - USD/CAD [$USDCAD]





the climb began on July 28 with the rise of the Slow Sto/MACD and finally the BBWidth....the BBWidth is the "trigger" to buy always (or sell).... this came after the MACD/BBwidth Pinch which is clear on July 2.

the reason to hold since July 28 is the look of the MACD and Slow Sto....the MACD is pretty flat with a slight rise...the Slow sto has not dipped below 50 and remains somewhat bullish. Other than the small dips which on a daily basis may be profitable trades there is nothing for a long term trader like me to abandon a position if I had takeken it back on July 28.


So there are 3 charts on a long term basis.

If you read the discussion starting at the link I gave at the beginning you will see How I apply each indicator and why I have chosen the parameters That I have.

Time to sleep.... Night

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 Itchymoku 
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Welcome to the this thread.

I can show you a couple of charts that make up my "Trigger chart" which identifies price breakouts for stocks but to describe how this chart is used has been a major topic of this thread in this journal for the last ten days. It takes time to learn how I do interpret this chart (I will give examples below) that is why I went through each overlay and indicator that I use.



this is the starting point of the discussion. It is a lot to read to get from there to here but Hopefully , it will be understandable if you wade through this and you find it interesting.

I don't do futures, commodities or forex but I believe I have dealt with examples of such charts over the course of this discussion. Recently the subject of "Tick" charts versus normal "time" charts has come up. I find it difficulct to interpret Tick charts...there are a lot of lags and mixed messages in the indicators (Slow Stochastics and MACD especially) and I believe that these indicators are improperly calculated when Tick data is used and so it does not surprice me now when I here traders here say that indicators are useless. These and other indicators were never designed with tick data in mind.

Here are some charts using my "Trigger chart"

Equity Stock - Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]





it is late and I will only give a quick status of this stock.

On about Oct 18 the stock reached a bottom as shown by the MACD/BBwidth "pinch". The drop of the price below the lower Bollinger band is a huge portent of a bottom as well.

The start of the slide in price was on Sept 22 with the rise of the BBwidth and drop of the Slow Stochastics and MACD

After the bottom the stock is in consolidation (typically by rising to meet the 20day SMA) until Oct 29 where the BBwidth rises along with the Slow Sto and MACD.

Currently the stock may be nearing a top as $57.50 looks like a resistance point....the BBwidth is curling at this point but the other 2 indicators are still strong so that resistance will be at least attacked.

I have 2 other charts that have not been discussed yet that might shed light on if the the attack would be successful or not....however that is for another time .... after 10 days of lecturing on this chart I am not ready to start another chart discussion at this point....


Commodity - Gold [$Gold]




Gold has been hard to predict, long term. There are a couple of times it looked like a bottom to this decline has been found only to see the slide continue since July14. Currently there is the start of a MACD/BBwidth pinch but to be complete the MACD must have a positive slope and the BBwidth a negative slope but both are flat. So currently it is only a "rest" and gold could drop further.

Forex - USD/CAD [$USDCAD]





the climb began on July 28 with the rise of the Slow Sto/MACD and finally the BBWidth....the BBWidth is the "trigger" to buy always (or sell).... this came after the MACD/BBwidth Pinch which is clear on July 2.

the reason to hold since July 28 is the look of the MACD and Slow Sto....the MACD is pretty flat with a slight rise...the Slow sto has not dipped below 50 and remains somewhat bullish. Other than the small dips which on a daily basis may be profitable trades there is nothing for a long term trader like me to abandon a position if I had takeken it back on July 28.


So there are 3 charts on a long term basis.

If you read the discussion starting at the link I gave at the beginning you will see How I apply each indicator and why I have chosen the parameters That I have.

Time to sleep.... Night


Thanks, this has convinced me to stay tuned into subscribing to your thread. I honestly haven't read the entire thread so I apologize for my naivete. I have a hard time tackling large threads with lots of content. I can only count a few journals I've read from start to finish on one hand because I'm a slow reader since I have a bad eye. I will try and skim through when I have time.

I've been thinking about that comic picture you used with the king and the salesman which has me thinking. I'm going to follow these setups and perhaps do some of my own research on them. I don't have to trade them in conjunction with my own setups, I can do them apart so they aren't interfering in my head if that makes sense.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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 Itchymoku 
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Welcome to the this thread.

I can show you a couple of charts that make up my "Trigger chart" which identifies price breakouts for stocks but to describe how this chart is used has been a major topic of this thread in this journal for the last ten days. It takes time to learn how I do interpret this chart (I will give examples below) that is why I went through each overlay and indicator that I use.



this is the starting point of the discussion. It is a lot to read to get from there to here but Hopefully , it will be understandable if you wade through this and you find it interesting.

I don't do futures, commodities or forex but I believe I have dealt with examples of such charts over the course of this discussion. Recently the subject of "Tick" charts versus normal "time" charts has come up. I find it difficulct to interpret Tick charts...there are a lot of lags and mixed messages in the indicators (Slow Stochastics and MACD especially) and I believe that these indicators are improperly calculated when Tick data is used and so it does not surprice me now when I here traders here say that indicators are useless. These and other indicators were never designed with tick data in mind.

Here are some charts using my "Trigger chart"

Equity Stock - Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]





it is late and I will only give a quick status of this stock.

On about Oct 18 the stock reached a bottom as shown by the MACD/BBwidth "pinch". The drop of the price below the lower Bollinger band is a huge portent of a bottom as well.

The start of the slide in price was on Sept 22 with the rise of the BBwidth and drop of the Slow Stochastics and MACD

After the bottom the stock is in consolidation (typically by rising to meet the 20day SMA) until Oct 29 where the BBwidth rises along with the Slow Sto and MACD.

Currently the stock may be nearing a top as $57.50 looks like a resistance point....the BBwidth is curling at this point but the other 2 indicators are still strong so that resistance will be at least attacked.

I have 2 other charts that have not been discussed yet that might shed light on if the the attack would be successful or not....however that is for another time .... after 10 days of lecturing on this chart I am not ready to start another chart discussion at this point....


Commodity - Gold [$Gold]




Gold has been hard to predict, long term. There are a couple of times it looked like a bottom to this decline has been found only to see the slide continue since July14. Currently there is the start of a MACD/BBwidth pinch but to be complete the MACD must have a positive slope and the BBwidth a negative slope but both are flat. So currently it is only a "rest" and gold could drop further.

Forex - USD/CAD [$USDCAD]





the climb began on July 28 with the rise of the Slow Sto/MACD and finally the BBWidth....the BBWidth is the "trigger" to buy always (or sell).... this came after the MACD/BBwidth Pinch which is clear on July 2.

the reason to hold since July 28 is the look of the MACD and Slow Sto....the MACD is pretty flat with a slight rise...the Slow sto has not dipped below 50 and remains somewhat bullish. Other than the small dips which on a daily basis may be profitable trades there is nothing for a long term trader like me to abandon a position if I had takeken it back on July 28.


So there are 3 charts on a long term basis.

If you read the discussion starting at the link I gave at the beginning you will see How I apply each indicator and why I have chosen the parameters That I have.

Time to sleep.... Night


Thanks, this has convinced me to stay tuned into subscribing to your thread. I honestly haven't read the entire thread so I apologize for my naivete. I have a hard time tackling large threads with lots of content. I can only count a few journals I've read from start to finish on one hand because I'm a slow reader since I have a bad eye. I will try and skim through when I have time.

I've been thinking about that comic picture you used with the king and the salesman which has me thinking. I'm going to follow these setups and perhaps do some of my own research on them. I don't have to trade them in conjunction with my own setups, I can do them apart so they aren't interfering in my head if that makes sense. Maybe I can do part of it here chartgame.com

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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 Underexposed 
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Both of these stocks were purchased as an experiment as they were identified using my "Quadrant" analysis chart.

I am gaining confidence more and more and it is still under construction....not the chart per se....the essence of the chart is cast in concrete now but rather small touches to help remind me when to add a Limit stop-loss (if the share price is TOO BULLISH or headed to bear country or alerts to buy/add shares...

Also for the past 10 days or so I have outlined how I use my "Trigger chart". Now that I down load the hstorical data to spreadsheets, I have more control over creating MY alerts. I have been frustrated with the limitations of website alerting services in that regard. But this is still a very much work in progress....fun though...

I thought I would show the charts for Badger Daylighting and Lundin Mining and comment on the charts as they stand this morning

Badger Daylighting




It looked bad at closing yesterday....all profits from the last 10 days were wiped out in a plunge. So imagine my surprise when I woke up this morning and saw the rebound...we are almost $3.00/share to the good so far.

The quad chart showed the share price moving out of the Bull quarter (this chart was generated AFTER yesterday's close...but it still hung in there.... with this jump in price that will have be reversed

note: in the Sharpchart that we are above the upper bollie... so I would expect a pullback to about $30 on Monday...but this run if anything is renewed...the SLow sto is over 80 and both MACD and BBwidth have sharp upticks. I don't know what caused that dip yesterday but obviously investors took it as opportunity..... About 10% gain in 10 days is nice with more to come IMHO


Lundin Mining




A nice jump in price and we are not over the upper bollie so we shauld keep it. We have crashed through another resistance.... first the 50 daySMA and now the 200daySMA...the Slow Sto is firmly over 80 and the MACD and BBwidth have increased their slopes...this is certainly going to be held for a while.

I don't have a lot of time today. I belong to a recreational choir (not a churchy choir). We do performances 3 times per year the first will be a 3 performance Christmas concert a month from now...Sat evening, Sunday matinee/evening. This is a choir of 64 women and 24 guys and we always sell out every performance.

Well this weekend starting tonight we will be in retreat in Canmore, Alberta in the Rockies (actually on the front edges) at the Canmore Nordic Center....beautiful scenery. Here we will rehearse 3 hours today, 8 hours Saturday and 4 hours Sunday....we love it. We have a social tonight, dinner and dance in costumes Saturday (no spouses or significant others at the retreat)... It is a retreat from trading and normal day to day and is my third year doing this.

I will update the status of the portfolio before I go...but that is it.

Good trading

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Well!!! What a week....over 4% gain and it is mostly due to the Rise of Badger Daylighting.

We are at an all time high as far as the return on this portfolio....quite a rebound from a month ago when we were at 20% and falling....now we are within spitting distance of a 10% gain and we still have almost 3 months left to the year for this portfolio.




I do have a serious decision to make with respect to Badger daylighting....I have owned the stock for 10 days and made 11%.... serious coin as you can see.

this is the intra day



As can be seen there are no clues in the share price other than to reveal the price has entered a BBtunnel....the MACD has dropped but looks like it may want to rise soon.

In a daily chat that I showed earlier today.... the price is a way above the upper BB...Is this a one day run and pullback ? Should I sell and purchase again on that pullback.

I don't have the time as I leave for that retreat in 45 mins but I will be back Sunday evening and look at this in great detail....it could move sideways and take off again....my other charts may help in the decision.

Lundin Minings also made a great contribution...but that one is just a strong bull.

I have basically similar decisions in my real portfolio's....a lot more fun when in a bull situation

See you...Fa la la la..lalala Yeah! practicing Christmas songs

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Well!!! What a week....over 4% gain and it is mostly due to the Rise of Badger Daylighting.

We are at an all time high as far as the return on this portfolio....quite a rebound from a month ago when we were at 20% and falling....now we are within spitting distance of a 10% gain and we still have almost 3 months left to the year for this portfolio.

the bolding is my own....that should have been 2.0% and falling a month ago...NOT 20%...hahahaha

I was in a rush to get out of the apartment and travel into the mountains for the retreat for my recreational choir and I did not proof the message.

This is a sample of our massed choirs singing. There is our group - UP2Something which is roughly 24 tenor and bass singers (I am a tenor 2 which means I don't have to sing the highest men's notes) and 64 alto and soprano singers. It is quite a ratio actually...attracting men to a choir is a major difficulty and we have a good group of men...you can actually hear us in that mass of singers. There is another all women group of about 60 alto/soprano singers called Up2Christmas which morphs into She'sUp2something after Christmas. We all belong to the same organization and usually sing at the same venues though not always.

Can you imagine the task of organizing such a choir chorally...2 groups singing as one. Here is a sample of a signature Christmas repertoire - O Holy Night. I can tell you as a tenor surrounded by all those female voices when they hit their high notes you get a chill up your spine. I am here...you have about a 1/24 chance to know what I really look like



Each year in September the choir reforms after the summer months. There is about a 80% return rate but always there are new additions. We normally rehearse for 3 hours every Tuesday with workshops on the weekends before a performance. This retreat Fri evening/Sat/Sun morning in the majestic Rocky mountains surrounding Canmore, Ab is a chance for the choir to bond. Aside for 3 hours of rehearsal in Fri evening and Sunday morning with about 7-8 hours on Saturday by a visiting choral director who has been doing this retreat for 10 years and would be hurt if he were not invited back....as if that were a problem ...he is amazing. But while these rehearsals ARE fun...we have a welcome party on Friday night and a costumed Dinner and Dance on Saturday from 6:30pm til 2:00am if you have the stamina (I give out at 11:30).... No Spouses or significant others...nice 3/1 women to men ratio...We do a skit from each table... created and rehearsed for 15 mins before we put it on then dancing the night away.... so much fun

Anyway I am tired, had a nap since getting back and going out to get something to eat (too tired to cook).

I will be back to discuss Badger Daylighting and what I think will happen and what I will do....do sell or not to sell.... that is the question?

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to evaluate whether to sell or hold (too risky to buy more) Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] I always give a complete 4-5 chart analysis PLUS fundamentals. What I do is consider each significant overlay/indicator.... evaluate if the indicator/overlay on its degree of bullish/bearish quality....cancel out opposite and the result is an overall consensus. All indicators lie a little but not at the same time... so a consensus is usually a good guidance for the future.

Fundamentals

Ok...by now you should understand the basics of this chart....but you can go a little further by thinking about the the recent events affecting the chart.

the recent event has been the sudden drop then the 15% rebound....

nearest I can figure...the drop was in anticipation of a bad financial report and when that did not happen the stock came back with a vengeance

here is the announcement of that report:

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

and here are the highlights as published in that report


Quoting 
Highlights for the three months ended September 30, 2014:

Revenues increased by approximately 29 percent to $113.1 million from $87.5 million for the comparable quarter of 2013 due to a 34 percent increase in Canadian revenues and a 24 percent increase in United States revenues. This is the third full quarter in which Fieldtek, acquired in November 2013, has been part of the financial results. Without Fieldtek, Canadian revenues would have increased by 17 percent.

Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 32% in the third quarter of 2014 from 30% for the same quarter of 2013.

Adjusted EBITDA margins were 27 percent for the nine months ended September 30, 2014 compared to 30 percent for the nine months ended September 30, 2013;

Funds generated from operations increased by 58 percent period-over-period to $30.9 million from $19.6 million in the comparable quarter of 2013;

Canadian adjusted EBITDA margins decreased 1% from 32 percent to 31 percent from the comparable period last year due to the impact of the lower margin Fieldtek business. Without Fieldtek Canadian margins would be the same as the previous third quarter.

U.S. adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 33 percent from 32 percent for the comparable period of last year helped by underlying business improvement.

Badger had 957 daylighting units at the end of the third quarter of 2014, reflecting the addition of 174 daylighting units to the fleet to date in 2014 and the retirement of eight units. Of the total, 405 units were operating in Canada and 552 in the United States at quarter-end. Badger had 340 units in Canada and 408 in the United States for a total of 748 units at September 30, 2013. The new units were financed from cash generated from operations and existing credit facilities.

All good news as I can see it...



Quoting 
Internal preparations for anticipated growth in 2014 will be completed;
As long as overall activity in the economy and the oil and natural gas industry remains essentially constant, Badger will be able to continue to grow the business in 2014;
Badger in 2014 can further develop the organization to position itself to be able to handle the planned future growth;
The new locations opened in the United States will provide an increased contribution to cash flows from operations and net profit during 2014;
The current business development initiative will provide Badger with the additional new customers necessary to grow the business in 2014 and the future;
Eastern Canada will continue with steady growth in 2014, driven by activity in the utility and construction segments;
There will be an increase in Western Canada revenue during 2014 due to anticipated project volume and spending in the oil and natural gas sector;
The expectation that Western Canada EBITDA margins will improve during the remainder of 2014; and,
An increase in Company capital will be required to finance the anticipated capital expenditure program.

more good hard info on how management sees the future.


Trigger Chart





So...a bad feeling in the market place changes to a bullish backlash.


You can see the whiplash did not cause significant changes to the MACD and BBwidth...the MACD is basically back on track...the BBwidth took off and continued to do so. The Slow Sto remained above 80 throughout the 2 day event..... this situation is Bullish

the negative in this chart is the fact that the stock price closed far above the upper bollie.... and this is significant. It means there could be a pullback, though it is possible to re-enter the BB envelope sideways or with a drifting pos slope.I doubt very much given that financial out look that the stock will plunge bearish.

I drew a micro resistance support lines and from the look of it we are in the center for now.


P&F chart outlook





it is hard to decide if that dotted red line a support or resistance.... we closed above it so technically it is a support but I think it may be a weak one and could collapse.

A better resistance point is in the solid red line above it.

If it falls then it might be a small loss & sideways .... I think that $30.50 - 31.00 will be a possible pullback zone


Sentiment chart outlook





This chart is a great companion to the trigger chart when approaching resistance/support.

the CMF overlay shows another higher high... it has rebounded from almost crossing the line into the mud. - Bullish

The RSI looks fine, the hiccup of that drop is putting the RSI on a bullish path.... Bullish

the ADX is indecisive.... it looks like indecision right now though there is a cross with the bullish cross of the DI +/- is there but hard to tell if that is permanent - Neutral


Ichmoku chart outlook




Interesting how the price has pierced the RED cloud...that upper edge of the red cloud is now a support so perhaps my question in the P&F chart is answered.... that red line should be a green support line now. Look in the orange circle....the space between the red/blue thin lines hardly reacted to that drop/rise and rises with the blue high above the red..this is good news

Ichimoku chart - Bullish

OnBal Volume - Bullish

CCI - very bullish


Conclusion

Here are my evaluations

1.0 very Bullish: 1
2.0 Bullish: 4
3.0 Neutral: 1

this gives me an overall impression of Bullish


As a result I will NOT SELL this stock. a small pullback is expected but not serious... I am hoping for this company's share to re-enter the bb envelope soon. IF there is another huge jump tomorrow I may sell at the top...take the profit and look to re-buy on the pullback.

Finally if you look at Friday's close (back a couple of posts)... the intra-day does not feel like a serious pull back...it looks very positive to me.

It is a watch at this point... at least for Monday

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this is a almost live streaming chart for BAD.TO that I have captured about 15 mins after the bell



As you can see we are off to a $0.35 increase already. I am glad I did not use a stop-loss at the start of the day as it would have tripped.

As far as the price movement goes on a Intra-day basis it is is hugging the upper BB which I like ..... but it will be miles above the daily upper BB....it it rises much higher I will follow it with a limited stop-loss and trail it upward... right now standing pat

Time 7:50AM

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well it is about 40 mins later now and the share price is doing what I wanted.... it is moving sideways toward the daily Upper BB.




This website is also monitoring 3 other stocks in my fantasy portfolio.... Toronto Dominion Band [TSX:TD], Enercare [TSX:ECI] and Lundin Mining [TSX:Lun] are all doing well..... it is a great day so far.

The BB's in this chart are tightening...you can see I am using the MACD with a signal line....I have not got any control over this but as you see in an intra-day chart it seems to work well....with the MACD above the signal line again so far so good.

note: my time updates are my time.... MST

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well we dropped from the last....panic??? Nopes....




Remember the Ichimoku chart from my complete analysis of BAD.TO .....see the top of that red cloud....the green line on the above chart is above the upper edge of the red cloud....it acts as a support now.



Still performing as I expected ....the pullback from Friday is normal in my books.

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As I thought the price pulled out of the dive...I have created a line that represents the Upper edge of the red cloud that is the strong support now.





I would not want the price to fall below this line as it would be a fight to get out of that glue.

Looking good... a BB-pinch is slowly forming... my next post will be when it is tight, since that is where the next big movement will happen.

Good trading

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In my previous post where I did a complete analysis of this stock I said


Quoting 
If it falls then it might be a small loss & sideways .... I think that $30.50 - 31.00 will be a possible pullback zone

Well as you can see in this screen shot of the day's action this is exactly what happened.....it just did not stay there long ... it dropped to $30.70 dead-assed middle of that range before rebounding.





Now note what happened in that purple circle....the price is below the lower for 3 intervals...that to me is indicative of a pullback and potential bottom.... and it is NOT a rest...we have rebounded to a profit.

I have also drawn lines using the peaks and troughs of the MACD....they show the bottoms and top of the price changes better than using MACD signal line crosses....don't you think.

SO on Intra-day basis...the TA we have been applying to daily charts has validity to me here as well. I am limited as to how I create my charts here but there is little lag in the prices...not 15 minutes as usual in a free chart.... and Level2Stock Quotes.com IS a FREE service.

We are rising again....going to the moon??? nopes, I would be pleasantly surprised if it topped $31.50 actually I don't want it to rise too high....I want it to continue its sideways shuffle into the BB envelope... having it done so with a slight pos slope (on a daily chart) is very bullish for the future.

This is my last post on this intra-day thing.... it has been interesting to see predictions happen and see that things I have discovered at the daily basis have validity at the intra-day level.

time to do something else with my day.... I am not worried about the last 2 hours or so left.

Good Trading..........

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well Badger Daylighting has jumped another dollar to $32.00 at the morning's bell.

Believe it or not, as a long term player I am not liking this. Again we are miles above the upper BB. We did not reenter the BB envelope yesterday...came close but but it did not happen. It will re-enter soon and we still don't know how it will be done.

If this closes near here and tomorrow rises like this again, I will slap a limit stop loss to protect that profit as it could pull back severely when it decides to come out of the stratosphere.

As a long term trader I want to see steady gains... not large swings.

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{sigh} I guess I will have to live with this jump in price...Such a problem!!!

Here is a combined Daily and intra-day look





Is this run ending??? Look at the chart on the left....the daily chart. Look at the MACD and BBWidth charts in the blue circle...there is NO curl at the tips...the run ends when these two indicators reverse their direction. The Slow sto can stay put above 80 for a long time indicating bullish interest even if the other two charts fall.

I still don't like the share price daily candles so high above the upper BB....why? because with them so high the crashing end could be swift and deep. BUT NOT TODAY....

there probably will be a pullback ...you can see that potentially happening right now in the intra-day side. If you are a day trader this is not the time to particularly jump in .... that time was at the bell and followed it while the blue signal line of the intra-day was above the MACD line....yes it went higher but you would need more tools than I show here to figure that out.

From a day trader POV the time to get in is when/if that blue signal line on the MACD recrosses that MACD line...which could happen.

Another good day....from a long term trader POV I again must decide at the end of the day whether there will be a big pullback tomorrow.... if it does this jump again tomorrow, I will probably track it and sell at the top since it cannot be above the upper Bollie too much longer.

Good trading

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 jackbravo 
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As a long term trader I want to see steady gains... not large swings.

that's an interesting perspective
your chart analysis is very interesting. i haven't seen you use the quad chart for intra-day analysis. would it work as well?

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jackbravo View Post
that's an interesting perspective
your chart analysis is very interesting. i haven't seen you use the quad chart for intra-day analysis. would it work as well?

Thank you for the comment and question

You can ask most long term traers about my comment and I think they would agree.

It is an accident when one of our stocks takes off like a rocket. We don't go looking for them. But all rockets hit the ground if they don't escape gravity.... So when one of our stocks takes off like Badger Daylighting making 25% in 3 days if we are not vigilant that gain for 3 days could be lost in 3 more days.

I am not really acting as a long term trader on this website. Because I am journaling here and describing what I do I basically look at all of my stocks on a daily basis....even my real portfolios (of which I also have BAD.TO). Normally I ignore my holdings for most of the week doing a status update (similar to the mid week/ end of week status as I show here) at the close of each week's trading. As a result I could miss such an event if I acted as I normally would have.

I juggle a lot more stocks in the air than the four, I show, here in real life. It is difficult to follow 50 plus watchlists daily and still have a life ... at least the life I want.

The quadrant analysis chart that I have developed came about as a desire to visually see the status of my holdings and watch lists. It only takes 2 minutes to update 20 + stocks this way.

Here is a USA watch list of stocks that are high pennies (above $1 but below $5).... this is only the summary page of 8 of them....the rest of the charts are below.





the circles are an indication of where that chart ended on the last update so you can see how the chart has changed since the last time you checked things out. each arrow is not a simple day on day creation.

After 2 minutes of updates I have this entire watchlist updated as I like it. (you can see at the bottom other stocks but I am only showing the summary of 8 of them here.

Now look at SilverCorp Metals.... see it pegging into the BuLL quadrant.

Here is the page devoted to that stock




You can see the basic data from which all these charts are calculated but I have hidden what I do to get them...I am not prepared to discuss that.

The right contains a stripped down version of a trigger chart that I would use in a detailed analysis. From this simple chart I can see that the stock price has been falling for some time and it has bottomed out (red circle) and is on the rise..... if you have followed how I create my trigger chart (and if you haven't I suggest you do it is good reading ) you will know that this could be just a rest....not a bottom but the green circled area shows a rising MACD and Slow Sto which is encouraging.

So on the basis of this I might want to investigate this stock more with a complete analysis.

I intend to make a workbook of Canadian Indices... then I can shorten my searches something like this


quad Workbook of TSX indices => Index A... Index B... Index C ................
......................................................................... |
......................................................................... |
......................................................................... |
........................................................ quad analysis of Index B => Stock A ...Stock B... Stock C......
......................................................................................................................................... |
......................................................................................................................................... |
............................................................................................................................... detailed analysis

I am not set up that way but that is the idea... an alerting system that rapidly homes in on sectors/stocks that interest me on criteria that I have defined

Back at that last chart next to the "trigger chart" I plan to have idiot light alerts based on my TA criteria. I will be able to have exactly what I want...not make do with something someone else dreamed up that is contrary to what I like to do.

to address that last question of yours

I have never applied this quad analysis to intraday trading. I use about 200 daily records when I do this analysis so if you were using 5 mins charts I would require 200-5 min intervals or 1000 mins or 16 hours of h/l/c vol data. It has to be easily and automatically downloadable using excel and I do not have access to such a data source.

It is an interesting extension of this idea but I am still working on improving this for daily data.... right now.

Thank you for the interest and reading my journal.

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 jackbravo 
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Thank you for the comment and question

You can ask most long term traers about my comment and I think they would agree.

It is an accident when one of our stocks takes off like a rocket. We don't go looking for them. But all rockets hit the ground if they don't escape gravity.... So when one of our stocks takes off like Badger Daylighting making 25% in 3 days if we are not vigilant that gain for 3 days could be lost in 3 more days.

I am not really acting as a long term trader on this website. Because I am journaling here and describing what I do I basically look at all of my stocks on a daily basis....even my real portfolios (of which I also have BAD.TO). Normally I ignore my holdings for most of the week doing a status update (similar to the mid week/ end of week status as I show here) at the close of each week's trading. As a result I could miss such an event if I acted as I normally would have.

I juggle a lot more stocks in the air than the four, I show, here in real life. It is difficult to follow 50 plus watchlists daily and still have a life ... at least the life I want.

The quadrant analysis chart that I have developed came about as a desire to visually see the status of my holdings and watch lists. It only takes 2 minutes to update 20 + stocks this way.

Here is a USA watch list of stocks that are high pennies (above $1 but below $5).... this is only the summary page of 8 of them....the rest of the charts are below.





the circles are an indication of where that chart ended on the last update so you can see how the chart has changed since the last time you checked things out. each arrow is not a simple day on day creation.

After 2 minutes of updates I have this entire watchlist updated as I like it. (you can see at the bottom other stocks but I am only showing the summary of 8 of them here.

Now look at SilverCorp Metals.... see it pegging into the BuLL quadrant.

Here is the page devoted to that stock




You can see the basic data from which all these charts are calculated but I have hidden what I do to get them...I am not prepared to discuss that.

The right contains a stripped down version of a trigger chart that I would use in a detailed analysis. From this simple chart I can see that the stock price has been falling for some time and it has bottomed out (red circle) and is on the rise..... if you have followed how I create my trigger chart (and if you haven't I suggest you do it is good reading ) you will know that this could be just a rest....not a bottom but the green circled area shows a rising MACD and Slow Sto which is encouraging.

So on the basis of this I might want to investigate this stock more with a complete analysis.

I intend to make a workbook of Canadian Indices... then I can shorten my searches something like this


quad Workbook of TSX indices => Index A... Index B... Index C ................
......................................................................... |
......................................................................... |
......................................................................... |
........................................................ quad analysis of Index B => Stock A ...Stock B... Stock C......
......................................................................................................................................... |
......................................................................................................................................... |
............................................................................................................................... detailed analysis

I am not set up that way but that is the idea... an alerting system that rapidly homes in on sectors/stocks that interest me on criteria that I have defined

Back at that last chart next to the "trigger chart" I plan to have idiot light alerts based on my TA criteria. I will be able to have exactly what I want...not make do with something someone else dreamed up that is contrary to what I like to do.

to address that last question of yours

I have never applied this quad analysis to intraday trading. I use about 200 daily records when I do this analysis so if you were using 5 mins charts I would require 200-5 min intervals or 1000 mins or 16 hours of h/l/c vol data. It has to be easily and automatically downloadable using excel and I do not have access to such a data source.

It is an interesting extension of this idea but I am still working on improving this for daily data.... right now.

Thank you for the interest and reading my journal.


Thanks for sharing. Your method is fascinating. I've used MACD but haven't really been able to use it with effectiveness. I'm using stochastics for intraday, and have been watching it after reading your method. There's a lot of nuances to it based on range/trends, so I'm still learning about it. Again, thanks for sharing your methods.

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jackbravo View Post
Thanks for sharing. Your method is fascinating. I've used MACD but haven't really been able to use it with effectiveness. I'm using stochastics for intraday, and have been watching it after reading your method. There's a lot of nuances to it based on range/trends, so I'm still learning about it. Again, thanks for sharing your methods.

well if you are unsatisfied with traditional interpretation of MACD, read my development of my so-called "trigger chart". you may find this very interesting if you have not already done so.



Ask questions if you wish....I have no problem with questions on my charts....they help me as much as they will for you.

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well.... another day and this makes me another almost 5%. It has me worried about a big pullback coming. We are above the upper BB for 3 days...so it could happen anytime now.




today is almost a carbon copy of two days ago.

I WANT this stock to move sideways for 2 days until it is back inside the BB envelope. If it moves sideways or with a very slight positive slope the bull run will probably continue. If it drops suddenly, the run is over with even more declines to come.

So I will watch this like a hawk again tomorrow....if it rises again like today I will use a trailing Limited Stop-loss to follow it. I won't enter it now as I don't want a short spike to sell my stock. I have a lot of "house money" to play with after 3 days of solid gains....I can afford a small pullback especially were it to rise again.

Take care....time to do other stuff now.

Good Trading

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well I slept in and this is the result for Badger Daylighting



As you can see the stock spiked to $33.50 at the bell... I would have never caught that and it has been falling steadily..... time to sell??? Nopes, it has fallen back but is still 11 cents above yesterday and leveling out. time to watch right now

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Several traders ask me about what is my target for a stock. As a long term trader you don't really have one. Who knows how high a bull run will take the price or when the stock will fall in the future?

In lieu of a "target" I look at support/resistance levels. Resistance levels are a target of sorts. It identifies an area where a stock should have difficulty passing. Supports identify a line which crossed would indicate a decline will continue and a reversal is doubtful.

it is a bit like climbing a ladder...do let us see what BAD.to's "ladder looks like





You see the current resistance is right where the stock price is right now near $33.00. Aside for the top of the "X" column to the left we have crossed this line once today already and it pulled back under. I don't think this will be a serious resistance....the band ahead of that $35 - $36 individually these are weak lines but in total this should be reasonably strong.... That dotted line at $38.00 is stronger and if we pass that line....well...life would be good

The level at $31 is a reasonably strong support....I would not sell this stock unless it fell through this level.

That is of course over and above if the Stock price really spiked high....this morning was a nice spike but not enough to sell on.

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Well I got my wish....the share price is moving sideways into the Bollies.





Remember that $33.00 resistance I saw in the P&F chart 2 posts ago.... well I looked at my trigger chart with a 200daySMA and look at that....the freaken' 200day SMA is acting as the resistance. I don't really consider such lines as serious resistance but they can slow things down a bit. See how we are now straddling the upper BB....now look at the Slow Sto....pegged above 80.... the slopes of the MACD and BBwidth are still fine and strong.

So even a few cents more decline won't harm our position here. I would say tomorrow would be another bullish day but I would say we only have a couple more days to go until this share price decides to end the current run and then we will go seriously into sideways consolidation while the BBwidth falls (the BB's tighten) there (when the bb's are tight) we would watch and try to determine a future direction....but that is the future....if we rise above $33.00 and stay there til tomorrow we might reach $35.00 (next resistance) before the consolidation starts.




OMG...look what 15 minutes has done....this is what I don't like about daytrading....look at the action when I take my eye off the chart for 15 minutes while typing this message.

See the price spike above the upper bollies....did not last long, did they? That is why when this happens and if you cannot buy before and take advantage of that spike and sell.... you just say OMG will you look at that and watch.... don't get sucked into buying in when the stock price is a way over the upper BB....they always pull back and you are a loser..... shut your ears if you are on a pumper website and they are screaming "I am backing up the truck and loading up!" "this puppy is headed for a 3 bagger!!!" this are guys that purchased the stock BEFORE the jump and want action to unload their holdings before it falls...DON'T be one of those that are Born Everyday

That applies to daily charts as well as intra-day.

Does this mean nothing to me though....not at all....makes me feel good about tomorrow......that's me for the day.

Got more things to do

Good trading

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Well as you will see this is another great week started. We are far above the last high for this fantasy portfolio of almost 9% to its present value of almost 11%





Overall I am happy with this suite of stocks but I am getting concerned about Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN]

when I run my quadrant analysis on this stock I see a trend forming to move out of the bullish zone





the price has had a sudden down turn as you can see. But it could be nothing more than a consolidation phase following a bull run....what typically happens there is the share price tends to the 20daySMA. But this would put us in a negative situation and now I have the tool to avoid this....in the past I did not.

Here is a look at the intra-day chart





the price dipped to about $5.40.... I will tolerate a penny less. The 50daySMA is providing some support at this level

I will set a Limit Stop Loss order for the 3000shares in the range of $2.37 - $2.39

I am giving it a chance recover....I have better places for that money if it trips the sell orderl


Good trading

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Well as you can see from this current sharpchart....Badger Daylighting is exactly where we want it to be.




See how we are straddling the upperBB today.....see the Slow Sto firmly over 80 and the Slope of the MACD and BBwidth is still strong, with no curl

We are attacking that 200daySMA resistance.... I would expect it to fall some time today

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well the stock has not tripped my limit stop-loss @ $5.37 - $5.39



No guarantees though, it is basically going sideways at present... fingers crossed

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well it took a while but the expected attack at $33.00 resistance is going on right now





Look in that red circle and what do you see??? The price rose high above the upper BB and then pulled back into BB envelope.

If I day traded I would ALWAYS have Bollinger bands in my chart.... when they are tight you know there is action coming...depending on the position of the price versus the 20intervalSMA you can get a clue as to direction.... the MACD may be slow on the uptake but it helps in deciding the direction of the break and the maximum as shown in this chart helps tell the end of a run.

The same principles I have shown you in daily charts also apply in intra-day charts.

We are hanging on now....if we can clear that level that $33.00 will start acting as a support.

Lundin mining [TSX:LUN] is moving around like a blind man with no dog in an unknown place.... it is pacing back and forth around $5.45.... no serious threat to trip the stop-loss but no comfort that it is walking away from it either.

Back to watching...

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 jackbravo 
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great analysis, and thanks for your continued posts. i've started to use both bb and bb% on my charts as well, though not the macd. i have a macd slope indicator that i built in tradestation, that i've been using instead. i think there's too much going on with the macd as it is.

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Well BAD.TO is back under $33.00




you can see in the red circle the price bounce off $33.00 as a support once but could not handle the second one. Am I disappointed....Hell no....so far it is a $0.41/share gain though it looks like it will fall back to a lower value....maybe not...it could make another try.

What I do like is that now we are within that BB envelope and the indicators don't show a decline...the run continues





I am giving up for the day now...at this point LUN.TO has gained $0.05 to $5.50 so we have another 5 cent cushion...no worries...looking forward to tomorrow though as this is the day when that surprisingly strong resistance at $33.00 may fall for Bad.to

Good trading........

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jackbravo View Post
great analysis, and thanks for your continued posts. i've started to use both bb and bb% on my charts as well, though not the macd. i have a macd slope indicator that i built in tradestation, that i've been using instead. i think there's too much going on with the macd as it is.

you are welcome.

I looked at %B in the past and for those not familiar with it here is a discussion about this indicator

%B Indicator [ChartSchool]

I passed on this indicator as it returns information that I can see for myself in the chart....there is no added value to me.

Reread what I discussed about MACD and its relationship with Slow Stochastics and BBwidth...you may change your mind.... I am glad you are using BB's there is a lot on information to milk from those bands.... essentially that is all I am using in that intra-day discussion on BAD.TO... that and resistance with "un soupcon " of MACD

Good luck....

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well at my last post The price of BAD.TO was falling after having stayed above $33.00 for a while but it fell back and I thought it would fall back a little further .... Well I was wrong hahaha




it came back in the last hour or so to snuggle up to the $33.00 resistance. This is very bullish and as you can see we have breached that $33.00 resistance big time and now that is a $33.00 support




We might fall back to $33.00 later today but I doubt we will breach it again.....we are headed for the next resistance...( next step of the ladder at around $35.00)

the red circles on the left show a very bullish start....the price looks like it wants to re-enter the BB envelope and that normally signals the end of a fine start....but look at the MACD the signal line shows no bearish cross so this puppy has more legs. That is typical of a breach of a difficult resistance...think of it like a dam bursting.

And look at the red circle at the top.... that is the price of LUN.TO where we had set a limited Stop Loss..... NICE GAIN there too. to repeat this is how I like to sell now.... set a limited stop loss which would trip if the stock fell but lives it open to further gains.

My next post will be on Lundin [TSX:LUN] to decide where I will set the trailing stop loss.... don't think I will cancel it totally.

Good trading.........

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Lundin Mining certainly has improved....here is a 5 days intra-day look





it is hard to see but the share price is near the upper high for at least a month. I am going to move the limit stop-loss up significantly to where I show on the chart..... the range will be $5.55 - $5.57 This will give me almost $1,000 profit if it trips but leaves room for further gains.

This is how the stock stands now.




Badger Daylighting has fallen a bit as can see in the box where I had the red circle in the previous post. Still looks fine though. The next resistance at $35 looks tougher to me as it is spread out til $36.00...the real strong resistance comes higher in reality


Having another great day....hope you are too.....good trading

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  #469 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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well so much for wishful thinking...Bad.TO is being bad and dropped back below the $33.00 resistance again {sigh}

When you look at the sharpchart there a signs that this run is starting to end





you can see that the positive slope of both the MACD and BBwidth are losing strength....not severely you but they are now getting less robust.





this stock might rally yet and crawl back to that pesky resistance of $33.00 , looking at all my holdings thre seem to have been a general downturn in prices over the last hour so this really has nothing to do specifically with Badger Daylighting and more to do with the market.

From a daytrader perspective I missed an opportunity to grab that profit this morning. and I suppose that is true but such trading is not for me and I feel that will come back my way again. I have raised that Limit Stop Loss of Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] to $5.55 - $5.57/share as previously announced so that I will bow out with a decent profit if it trips...that will leave me with the fun prospect of re-assigning that money elsewhere if it happens


These last few days of posting during the day has interfered with my daily routine but it hopefully has been as instructive to you as it has been for me. Unlike Buffalo, NY and areas in eastern Canada and the USA...we have relatively nice weather here for the last few days.... in fact the snow that fell two weeks ago is a day or two from melting away and we are having a pleasant highs of +5c - +6c (42F - 44F) during sunny days which is to continue to the beginning of next week.








look at that....we have the same temp as Arizona or New Mexico and beat most of all of the mid USA.... so much for the cold Canada

And snow depth??? Look at this







now our measurements are in Centimeters (2.54 cm = 1 inch) so my area has 5 cms or about 2 inches of snow

but it is hard to tell from that map if it is 0-5 inches or 50-100 inches..... looking at the news from Buffalo, ny I'd say that region was in the 50-100 inch range

As you can see we have very little snow by comparison....another misconception that we get more snow that the USA...

Now I am not saying it is great everywhere in Canada...the east side is getting worse weather than here...and this weather in Calgary won't last forever....but I am missing it indoors.

A quick look at the charts shows that BAD.TO has recovered a bit and is knocking on the door of the $33 resistance

Anyway....time to enjoy the nice weather....see you in the evening....... Good trading..

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  #470 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Here is the status report for the end off this week





we are on a roll now with 6 straight positive weeks. Lundin mining {TSX:LUN] has recovered now and even if it turns around suddenly on Monday and trip the raised Limit stop loss we will generate a decent profit. If it continues to rise I will trail the stop-loss after it and eventually it will trip the sale.

Why do I not do this with Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD]??? Well I see a lot more potential in Badger Daylighting, they own quite a bit of the business in their field (pressure/vacuum trucks) in the oil patch and I see them more and more in cities as well. Lundin Mining is a pretty good stock for a BASE METAL company (Lead, Zinc, Nickel) but demand for these metals is not strong right now so it is a swing trade for me....Badger Daylighting is long term.

the eagle eyed among the readers of this journal, might see an increase in the Cash segment of the portfolio. Where did that come from if we did not sell anything??

Well we are collection dividends....here is the dividend record for this fantasy portfolio





We have collected a total of $1660 and change so far....Some like Algonquin Power which we sold earlier will still give u s a dividend in December since we held it past its ex-dividend date. Dividends represent a significant part of this portfolio. In reality I have a portfolio that is solely made up of high return dividend stocks...it is a tax free account (TFSA) and every dime snowballs.

See you Monday

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  #471 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Ok....more thoughts on these two stocks

Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN]

As I explained earlier.... this is a swing trade for me. There are no dividends associated with this stock so there is no "compensation" when the stock is in decline due to consolidation after a run... also this is a base metal mining company (Zinc, Lead, Nickel) the demand for these metals is not huge at the moment... so to me this is a wonderful mine to play....I am going to make a decent profit for the second time in the last 8 months and will continue to watch for another opportunity later... as base metal mines go this seems to be a good one.

When investing in a company that has a commodity as its major product, it is prudent to watch the price of that commodity(s)...if the price of the commodity rises then your company's stock should follow....ditto if the commodity price falls. If the price rises significantly for the commodity but your stock fails to respond..... time to find a better stock for that commodity





As you can see...Nickel prices are rising, lead prices also but less and Zinc has been in a rise for a while and declining slightly. The big demand is not there but at least there is some demand.

Here is the intra-day on Lun.TO





You can see that we started the day with a pullback but it is fighting back and almost back to Friday's close.... If the price breaks over $5.85, I will raise my limit stop-loss range by $0.10 to a range of $5.65 to $5.67. I am going to eventually sell this stock but I am giving it a chance to rise more.....if it does not rise to $5.85 I leave the stop-loss alone, no matter what it falls to.

Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD]


This pesky resistance around $33.00 is a pain in the ASSets Here is my trigger chart





We are comfortably within the BB envelope but that 200daySMA at $33.00 is becoming a formidable resistance.

The red circle shows the struggle there. The blue circle shows the MACD and BBwidth to be still strong but especially the BBwidth seems to be weakening a bit. These two must reverse direction before it can be shown that the run is over and it is certainly premature to say that. Staying above $33.00 for most of the day and closing above would be great....always when a strong resistance is permanently breached the rise is very nice.

the Slow Sto is 100% bullish and no matter what happens to the MACD and BBwidth , if the Slow Sto stays over 80 all is well..... this indicator staying over 50 during a consolidation is a main reason technically to hang onto the stock until the next BB squeeze.

Here is the intra-day chart





As you can see we have a nice gain so far of $0.21 from Friday's close and battling that $33.00.... this constant attack leads me to believe the resistance will fall.... I think of it as a battering ram on a door....eventually the door breaks.

Good trading

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  #472 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Bad.to has fallen to about $32 , so is licking its wounds.....Lun.to is around $5.70

Today looks like a losing day all around....nothing more to do....I'll be back tomorrow

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  #473 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok....the drop yesterday in BAD.to and others was just collateral damage because of the 100+ drop in the TSX. The American exchanges were slightly positive at the end of the day but not the TSX.

I thought I would look at the TSX while waiting for the intra-day charts to settle down.





You can see in the top right corner where the 100+ drop occurred...not serious but it does affect Canadian stocks. We are recovering this morning so some of those losses should be recovered.

When I see, that drops in share price are due to a decline in the exchange index and not due to the company itself, I just shrug and do nothing. Not the company's fault...just nervous investors.

I thought I would reinforce some of the things we talked about over the last 6 weeks. A very nice shorting opportunity if you were shorting the index. A very clear start to the short (Slow Sto falling below 50, MACD with neg slope and BBwidth turning positive slope. The index value hugged the lower BB and the end could not be clearer with a MACD/BBWidth pinch with a rise in the Slow Sto later.

I actually drew that green line prematurely by a day or 2 but why did I do that???? Well the plunge below the lower BB by the index value , have the heads up that the formation of the pinch, which looked to be happening, would in fact happen.... we have seen such a bottom finding ending quite often now.

So that is probably a decent short...(though I do not short )

ALSO note what happens after the end of a run.... beit Bull or Bear... it marches back to the 20daySMA.... so typical.

One day I may capitalize on this brief swing trade.... right now I do not... I generally want larger gains and look for a stock in a break out situation... but I might here as an experiment when I have a bit of cash lying doing nothing in my Fantasy account.

right now... quickly looking at my L2 chart....BAD.TO is being bad but LUN.TO is doing fine.....more about that in an hour or so.

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  #474 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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if the stock's down but nothing wrong with the company, do you buy more shares at that point?

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  #475 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
if the stock's down but nothing wrong with the company, do you buy more shares at that point?

I could if I had:

1. Extra money lying around in cash in my portfolio (if you back up to Friday's post you will find I am basically "all-in" the dollars I have in the cash portion of the account are not worth investing in a $30 stock( the $1000 or so in the account would by about 30 shares.

2. A feeling that there was a significant rebound in the offing.... right now if I look at BAD.TO, though I really like the stock overall.... I think there is a lot of profit taking going on, so while I will hang onto this stock long term... right now is NOT the time to add to the holding.

here is the chart as it stands now




See the shape of the MACD and BBWidth.... they are reversing direction.... this bullish run is over... the $33 resistance won for the time being.

Now see the red arrow I drew.... this is where I see the stock headed now.... towards the dotted green line, the 20daySMA. Look at the Slow Sto... currently it is fine where it is as it it is above 80...so this stock is not going to plummet and lose all profits for me. If it were in steep decline I would sell and take my money and wait it out to see how far it will fall. But I expect it to fall to that 20daySMA then go sideways as the BB's get tight.... at that point if I have significant money and things look good I would add to the holdings....if they look bad I would sell.

I know this runs contrary to a day trader's philosophy but my philosophy is longer term. I accept some losses as I view them temporary .... it is what the portfolio in general is doing rather than an individual stock that is undergoing temporary difficulty due to profit taking.

This is an extremely solid company that underwent a 3:1 forward split about a year ago. I owned this company's stock a long time ago when it first got its feet under it.... I bought it 2004 when it was about $5/share and sold it (foolishly as it turned out) when it start falling from $26/share in 2012.... I made a lot of money off of it especially when you add in the accumulated dividends over those 8 years.... but then I stared at it as it rose to over $100/share before the split. I did not think the rise would last and I have a philosophy of not chasing a stock after I sold it.

Also back then I did not like buying stocks at prices greater than $10/share.... so I waited and the stock price has fallen (due to the split and downturn of the O&G industry) to an affordable level. I since have changed my philosophy regarding buy-in prices for stocks and routinely buy in the range of $10 - $50 now if I see the solidity of the company.

But to answer your question.... it is not the time to Buy Badger Daylighting I would wait until this downturn ended and the stock showed signs of another bullish run. If this blight on the Oil and Gas industry turned around....yeah yeah I know you are swimming in the stuff in the USA with advent of Fracking... but the down turn in oil prices is hurting Canadain O&G industry and this dithering over the various pipelines (Keystone is only one of them) is hurting Canada's ability to serve world markets. Were it not for these problems BAD.TO would soar again...

But I can wait.... here as well as in my real holdings.

BTW....thanks for your comment/question

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  #476 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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I was going to quit for the day and leave to do other things but before I did I decided to play around a bit on Level2StockQuotes.com

look at what I did



this site is pretty cool as I can monitor about 8 charts at one time (there are six more like the small one in the upper left hand corner). the little ones and the one at the bottom left are basically rel time whereas the one on the right has a 15 minute delay...however I can reproduce my complete "trigger" chart here... it has to be a 5 min chart as a 3 min chart is not an option.

Notice in the chart on the left the sudden drop in price in that purple circle on the left....Where did it drop to.....yep, below the Lower Bollie.... is it a head fake??? well you can see it was a head fake as the price reversed to $31.74 minutes later.

But look at the 5 min chart with the 15 minute delay.

The Slow Sto started a severe decline... if that is all you were following you would probably bail at that point.... But all indicators lie to you.... that is why a consensus is soooooo important.

Look at the MACD when that drop finally occurred....hardly moved a muscle
Look at the BBwidth..... barely a ripple

So if you were following this stock in "real time" using the complete trigger chart, you would recognize that drop for what it was... "a head fake" and not sold prematurely.

It is so important that you watch for the completion of the sell signal.... falling Slow Sto, Falling MACD AND rising BBwidth

Without all three it is not a sell.... consensus is the key when using indicators.... that and discovering how your selected indicators interact....not all combinations are useful....however even though they don't play well together if you choose indicators that don't give the same chart look...then a consensus of those indicators is a good "sentiment test"

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  #477 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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thanks for your explanation.

you know, i've noticed that the longer a stock is in consolidation, the MACD will go towards 0 just because the averages converge, yet the stock is not really dropping (or rallying). That's why I don't trust it, sometimes it drops because the stock is dropping, sometimes it drops because it's consolidating. It does seem to help to have the BB in there to look at consolidation. Are you familiar with the BB squeeze indicator?

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  #478 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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jackbravo View Post
thanks for your explanation.

you know, i've noticed that the longer a stock is in consolidation, the MACD will go towards 0 just because the averages converge, yet the stock is not really dropping (or rallying). That's why I don't trust it, sometimes it drops because the stock is dropping, sometimes it drops because it's consolidating. It does seem to help to have the BB in there to look at consolidation. Are you familiar with the BB squeeze indicator?

Are you talking about a NinjaTrader BB squeeze indicator???

I don't use Ninjatrader so I am not familiar with it.

I found this description but other than being a pretty, colorful chart they don't really show how to use it or what settings to use

BB Squeeze Indicator For NinjaTrader | Great Trading Systems

I see that it is a combination of a Kelter envelope and Bollinger bands

Let us see if that is possible to use in a SharpChart

https://stockcharts.com:443/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67690439573

I had a look at a NinjaTrader video and it seemed quite complicated to set up and when you boil down the purpose of this indicator in Ninjatrader it seems to be nothing more than identifying places of breakout

TD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


My trigger chart is a lot easier to read and I can easily recognize the "head fake" on about Aug 11 by the muted response of the BBwidth to that drop in price for the previous 10 days and the drop below the lower BB.

No problem breakout on May 21 with the rising Slow Sto and MACD followed by the trigger the sudden rise of the BBwidth....

I would have not any trouble holding that stock until Sept 23 when there is a clear sell sign I might have even pulled the plug on Sept 8 with the sudden drop of the BBwidth with the fall of the MACD/ Slow Sto...which begins a short opportunity with a clear end on Oct 15 with my BBWidth/MACD squeeze (including a price that dived far below the lower BB)

I am not saying that this NinjaTrader indicator is not a useful tool...but it is doing nothing that I cannot do with my "trigger chart" and I think I can draw a few more inferences using my approach. I don't really like Kelter channels over Bollies...I made that decision years ago and having them both on a chart makes them very messy and hard to read.

Just read and test what I have discussed starting here



I don't think you have taken the time to go through all the detail and examples that I have show....Once you play with that chart and use the simple rules I developed you will see how well the Slow Sto/Macd/BBwidth indicators work together...and SMAs and BB overlay and you have a really powerful chart for predicting stock price movement.

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  #479 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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Are you talking about a NinjaTrader BB squeeze indicator???

The Bollinger Squeeze is not bad, but all it does is try to show when the Bollinger width has gotten narrow enough to be significant. That's what the comparison to the Keltner, which is slower to change, is supposed to tell you. I think that a person should have no particular trouble seeing that just by observing the BB width, or the pinch in the Bollinger itself. I don't think it would add to what you are doing, which combines a number of things together.

As an indicator, with a plot of the difference between the Bollinger and the Keltner, it has been done here and there for different charting platforms. A version, with a momentum indicator incorporated into the design, was promoted by a vendor who likes to sell very expensive indicators on the web. The funny thing is, it's so simple you don't have to pay a nickel for it, just plot the two bands on a chart. Oh well....

Bob.

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  #480 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
The Bollinger Squeeze is not bad, but all it does is try to show when the Bollinger width has gotten narrow enough to be significant. That's what the comparison to the Keltner, which is slower to change, is supposed to tell you. I think that a person should have no particular trouble seeing that just by observing the BB width, or the pinch in the Bollinger itself. I don't think it would add to what you are doing, which combines a number of things together.

Bob.

Thanks Bob for confirmation of my quick search of this method.

My approach to charting is simplicity in look without removing information from which further inferences can be made.

In looking at overlays for the main chart, Bollinger Bands stood out head and tails above the Keltner channels. ATR and BBwidth are both measures of volatilty...the ATR is used in Keltner Channels and of course BBwidth is part of Bollies. The next chart is a comparison of the two methods with Bollies/BBwidth on the left and Keltner/ATR on the right



I created 5 areas of comparison to discuss here

(1) Here is a breakout of this stock. It does not take much discussion to show that BBWidth and Bollies are superior in revealing the breakout.... the bollies are tighter at the breakout and explode out faster than the Keltner/ATR combination

(2) here the share price is on the outside of the Keltner channels showing bullishness...which is fine as such but I get just as much info from the share price hugging the inside of the upper Bollie.

What I am missing in the Keltner chart though is the nuance that I get when a share price moves above the upper Bollie...when that happens I KNOW a pullback is coming soon (rarely beyond 5 days usually in 2-3 days) and by watching how that pullback occurs I can judge the continued bullishness. of the rise.

Note the BBwidth action compared to the ATR under area 2.... YOU GET Nothing from the ATR as to the status of the bullish breakout.... the bollies show a much longer pos slope diminishing as the max of the run occurs..... much more information on the Bollie side. You could use the max of the bollie slope to predict the end of the run. If you used the ATR you would have sold a way too early

(3) See how one can anticipate the next volatile move of the price with the BBWidth. The BBwith is returning sharply to its low point and then suddenly reverses..... the ATR is flat throughout until the breakout...no warning of a potential breakout ....basically the same reading from the middle of the bull run until the negative breakout

(4) Well I will say the ATR gives a better indication to the end of the negative breakout. But I would have predicted that with the degree to which the share price was below the lower Bollie... the Keltner channel almost covers this important piece of information.

(5) Is there much of a squeeze in the Keltner chart showing the most recent breakout...the ATR is flat. there is a definite pinch of the bollies and rise in the BBwidth.

This is only one chart comparision.... I made many many more in my study of overlays and indicators and rejected the Keltner and ATR in favour of Biollinger bands and BBwidth.

I see absolutely no advantage to my ability to read the chart by wrapping the BB's inside the Keltner channel.... doing so just clutters my chart making it harder to read.

I am not knocking the indicator for NinjaTrader and the Price Action method....it just does not fit in with what I do.

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  #481 (permalink)
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In an earlier post I said I would raise the trailing limit stop-loss for lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] if the price closed above $5.80.

Well it did yesterday so now the limit stop-loss has the range $5.65 - $5.67 and will remain there unless it is tripped or the share price rises over $5.90 and closes above that point.

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  #482 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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Good posts on the BB's, fwiw I still have JB's original training VHS.... (now that's clearly an age thing!)

The three most important takeaways for me were always:

a) The pinch before explosion or larger move, usually with small headfake/flip first.
b) Hugging bands is strength to be followed, not faded.
c) Look for more serious trend changes only after price has made a new extreme inside the bands after it's progression along them and/or a lesser extreme outside them.

Seems to fit with what you say, just nowhere near as sophisticated as the totality of your methods.

In the end I had to stop using them as they were becoming part of a 'let's ring a bell at tops and bottoms' approach that demonstrated the massive naivete of my early trading, as opposed to the more wrinkled approach that I use now. Maybe I'll revisit them in some form, but I just have this nagging doubt that they work better for stocks than futures, or maybe it's a longer timeframe thing. Dunno mate.

Cheers

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  #483 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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I just brought it up for discussion,m rather than for use. It confers a similar idea, by setting an arbitrary range around price of 2 ATRS for the standard deviation plot. But like was said above, it's easy to just eyeball when the BB pinches. I've read your discussion a few times, but probably need to dissect it a little bit more. Here's a question for you:

In the following daily chart, a location where the BBwidth is flat (previously rising) and the macd and stochastic are both heading down - this should be a headfake in previous upward trend. But really, the upward trend was a headfake in a previous downward trend.



My second question is regarding when the BB width is decreasing, yet the macd and stoch are increasing



While both are increasing, it looks to my eyes that the stock is just pulling back into consolidation, but hasn't turned into an uptrend yet. It is somewhat concerning that there seems to be a divergence between the BBwidth peaks and price. This was my question earlier - the MACD rising when under 0 may mean an uptrend, or may just mean the stock is going into a period of consolidation (BBwidth decreasing).

Here's a similar situation where both the macd and sto are increasing, while BBwidth is decreasing. In this instance, the consolidation was brief in a upward trend.


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  #484 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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Thanks Bob for confirmation of my quick search of this method.
...
I see absolutely no advantage to my ability to read the chart by wrapping the BB's inside the Keltner channel.... doing so just clutters my chart making it harder to read.

I've used both. I pretty much agree that the pinch in the Bollingers is very valuable, and the Keltner won't ever do that. You could use Keltners as a substitute for traditional hand-drawn straight-line channels, and they can be good for that. The Bollies are much more responsive to price changes, and give you a different kind of information. I also would not bother putting the BB's inside the Keltner's -- just eyeball them, they're clear enough.

I do like what you've done with them, by the way.

Bob.

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  #485 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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I am not knocking the indicator for NinjaTrader and the Price Action method....it just does not fit in with what I do.

Since you occasionally mention "price action," and it's apparently kind of a new term for you, I thought I would, for illustration, just show you a price action chart. This is a style of chart reading, very bare-bones, no indicators at all except, sometime, a moving average. Just trend lines and support and resistance. Buy or sell decisions are based on what price, and price alone, is doing.

It's not really my cup of tea. It does keep you very focused on just the action of price.... hence the name .

You would act on breaks of support or resistance, or of trendlines or channels, or if price bounces off the lines, and stay with the trend until it changes. Although this became somewhat a fashion a few years ago, it is actually a very old way of charting. It is basically from before the days that anyone had the computing power to calculate indicators, or had even thought of them. Sometime you see this done with a time chart, sometimes a tick chart. The "price action" method has nothing to do with the chart style -- time, tick or the more exotic ones; it's a type of chart reading and trading. When it was revived and made popular in recent years, mainly by a guy named Al Brooks, it was with 5-minute charts of the regular session.

You have to recognize where the lines should go and draw them in by hand with a line-drawing tool. That obviously depends on judgment and can be hard to master.

Here's a sample, a 5-minute chart of the S&P stock index. This is literally all that goes on a price action chart:






This can be hard to trade, which is why people often give it up after a while and try some indicators to give them a handle beyond what pure price shows. I do keep one of these around, and it has helped me identify trends and trend changes, but I like having a little more to go on, too.

This is just FYI, no particular relevance to your method, and certainly it's not my main preference, either. But that's what it is, anyway.

Bob.

PS, hope I didn't lose that chart to that futures.io (formerly BMT) bug while I was editing the text -- I may have taken too long. Let me know if it didn't come through.

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 Silver Dragon 
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bobwest View Post
Since you occasionally mention "price action," and it's apparently kind of a new term for you, I thought I would, for illustration, just show you a price action chart. This is a style of chart reading, very bare-bones, no indicators at all except, sometime, a moving average. Just trend lines and support and resistance. Buy or sell decisions are based on what price, and price alone, is doing.

It's not really my cup of tea. It does keep you very focused on just the action of price.... hence the name .

You would act on breaks of support or resistance, or of trendlines or channels, or if price bounces off the lines, and stay with the trend until it changes. Although this became somewhat a fashion a few years ago, it is actually a very old way of charting. It is basically from before the days that anyone had the computing power to calculate indicators, or had even thought of them. Sometime you see this done with a time chart, sometimes a tick chart. The "price action" method has nothing to do with the chart style -- time, tick or the more exotic ones; it's a type of chart reading and trading. When it was revived and made popular in recent years, mainly by a guy named Al Brooks, it was with 5-minute charts of the regular session.

You have to recognize where the lines should go and draw them in by hand with a line-drawing tool. That obviously depends on judgment and can be hard to master.

Here's a sample, a 5-minute chart of the S&P stock index. This is literally all that goes on a price action chart:






This can be hard to trade, which is why people often give it up after a while and try some indicators to give them a handle beyond what pure price shows. I do keep one of these around, and it has helped me identify trends and trend changes, but I like having a little more to go on, too.

This is just FYI, no particular relevance to your method, and certainly it's not my main preference, either. But that's what it is, anyway.

Bob.

PS, hope I didn't lose that chart to that futures.io (formerly BMT) bug while I was editing the text -- I may have taken too long. Let me know if it didn't come through.

@bobwest,

Price action trading also depends on perspective. I marked up your chart with what I saw. As you can see I have many more false positives. You are correct; knowing what lines to draw and where to draw them is the hardest part. By far, your chart is how is how it should have been traded.

It should be noted that Price Action always looks easy to trade in hindsight, however, trading the far right edge in real time is a very different story.

Robert


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jackbravo View Post
I've read your discussion a few times, but probably need to dissect it a little bit more. Here's a question for you:

I like questions regarding what I do from a charting perspective as it often causes me to pause and reconsider some things that I do.... more often they reinforce what I do :>

I use these charts not just for signals but also to draw out inferences from those signals. The former are somewhat easier to teach than the latter.


jackbravo View Post

In the following daily chart, a location where the BBwidth is flat (previously rising) and the macd and stochastic are both heading down - this should be a headfake in previous upward trend. But really, the upward trend was a headfake in a previous downward trend.





I redrew the chart using my own Trigger chart




the head fake is not really where you show it.... all that was was a very short bull break out that following a long uptrend from a bottom. The sudden rise in the BBwidth after that plateau showed its new direction which was hinted at by the fall of the SlowSto below 50 and sudden slope increase of the MACD.... that was your clue that things had changed....the BBwidth sudden rise just amplified that

There is a head fake earlier though.... that was in the purple circle.... Se how it gapped down for one day...which if you were just following the main chart would lead you to believe the downward direction of the price had continued and the weak bottom shown by the MACD/BBwidth pinch was only a rest not a bottom.

But look at the SloSto and MACD.... barely a movement.... look at the BBwidth.... it is still moving down...NOT reversing direction...so THAT is a head fake. "Head fakes" are reversals that happen the next interval or so....not 5 - 10 days later.

I note that you have added the Ninja Bollie Squeeze at the bottom and the red bars seem to define the downturns fairly well...except I defined the end of that downturn better...it got sucked in by the head fake I showed you. It is defining the last week or so as an uptrend with the same intensity as in mid-October...I would never make a long play on that data...I would wait until the Bollies got tighter...it is going to wander in the wilderness for at least 7-14 days before that happens.

You have also added a bunch of stuff to those charts that I would clean up. In the main chart I see "a diamond line" that makes no sense to me, you appear to use a 20dayEMA.... a 20daySMA makes more sense as it is the center line of the Bollies and I guess that is a 9dayEMA which oscillates around the candle sticks....telling you What???... it is useful maybe in an intraday chart but no much in a daily chart.

I have no clue what you have added to the BBwidth chart but is it helping the decision? Don't think so....finally I would eliminate the signal line and histogram from the MACD...they don't help much...... Just suggestions to make signals easier to read



jackbravo View Post
My second question is regarding when the BB width is decreasing, yet the macd and stoch are increasing


While both are increasing, it looks to my eyes that the stock is just pulling back into consolidation, but hasn't turned into an uptrend yet. It is somewhat concerning that there seems to be a divergence between the BBwidth peaks and price. This was my question earlier - the MACD rising when under 0 may mean an uptrend, or may just mean the stock is going into a period of consolidation (BBwidth decreasing).

You arrived at the right conclusion.... until the BBWidth reaches its normal trigger point, which, in this case is, about 5.0 - 2.5.... so the uptrend is encouraging for a positive breakout coming but no guarantee. it is in Consolidation.

I have ignored as a play these plays after a bottom has been found.

so far the only thing that I am confident about after finding a bottom.... is that the price tends to go to the 20day SMA...As you can see this has happened twice in this chart (another reason to have the middle band in the Bollinger band) but these are rather short swings and I tend to want swings lasting 2- 4 weeks not 1-2 weeks.

But I do watch them...and wonder about placing a large trade with a limit stop-loss to protect myself.... But so far I resist



jackbravo View Post
Here's a similar situation where both the macd and sto are increasing, while BBwidth is decreasing. In this instance, the consolidation was brief in a upward trend.


Hmm...well that is basically 2 consolidations butt up against eachother... you would not possibly have gotten in on that jump if you waited for it....but you would have had it if you played the movement from the bottom....

For me this is a dicey play.... there are so many plays where the signals are much clearer...I just would avoid these kind of plays. But if you are stuck on milking just one stock/etf I guess you play what you find.

But I look for others which was the reason for me developing that quad chart.


Great questions...you are on the right track in thought.

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ratfink View Post
Good posts on the BB's, fwiw I still have JB's original training VHS.... (now that's clearly an age thing!)

The three most important takeaways for me were always:

a) The pinch before explosion or larger move, usually with small headfake/flip first.
b) Hugging bands is strength to be followed, not faded.
c) Look for more serious trend changes only after price has made a new extreme inside the bands after it's progression along them and/or a lesser extreme outside them.

Seems to fit with what you say, just nowhere near as sophisticated as the totality of your methods.

In the end I had to stop using them as they were becoming part of a 'let's ring a bell at tops and bottoms' approach that demonstrated the massive naivete of my early trading, as opposed to the more wrinkled approach that I use now. Maybe I'll revisit them in some form, but I just have this nagging doubt that they work better for stocks than futures, or maybe it's a longer timeframe thing. Dunno mate.

Cheers

Thanks for this comment, appreciated.....

I don't know either as to whether or not this would work on futures or not

But if you create a futures chart using my "trigger setup and post a screen shot (an eod or intra-day or both) we can discuss what works and what may not.

My gut says there are possibilities there as in the precious metals forum I have made some posts on gold prices


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  #489 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Since you occasionally mention "price action," and it's apparently kind of a new term for you, I thought I would, for illustration, just show you a price action chart. This is a style of chart reading, very bare-bones, no indicators at all except, sometime, a moving average. Just trend lines and support and resistance. Buy or sell decisions are based on what price, and price alone, is doing.

It's not really my cup of tea. It does keep you very focused on just the action of price.... hence the name .

You would act on breaks of support or resistance, or of trendlines or channels, or if price bounces off the lines, and stay with the trend until it changes. Although this became somewhat a fashion a few years ago, it is actually a very old way of charting. It is basically from before the days that anyone had the computing power to calculate indicators, or had even thought of them. Sometime you see this done with a time chart, sometimes a tick chart. The "price action" method has nothing to do with the chart style -- time, tick or the more exotic ones; it's a type of chart reading and trading. When it was revived and made popular in recent years, mainly by a guy named Al Brooks, it was with 5-minute charts of the regular session.

You have to recognize where the lines should go and draw them in by hand with a line-drawing tool. That obviously depends on judgment and can be hard to master.

Here's a sample, a 5-minute chart of the S&P stock index. This is literally all that goes on a price action chart:

you did not lose the chart

I do this type of charting sometimes and it is very valid as I see it. I have used it myself on occasion especially when discussing Gold eod prices as can be seen in this discussion I did



what puzzles me most of price action charts is that most users restrict themselves to horizontal resistance/support lines when there are equally valid diagonal ones and they use only channels not wedges or triangles. Then of course you throw in "ticks" and the wheels fall off for me.

I still remember early in my posting here criticizing a chart for having an inconsistent x-axis and being told it was a "tick chart".... still don't like how indicators designed for normal time charts, are casually used in tick charts...makes little sense to me.

I use this "price action" but usually in the P&F charts that I use in a complete analysis.

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Silver Dragon View Post
@bobwest,

Price action trading also depends on perspective. I marked up your chart with what I saw. As you can see I have many more false positives. You are correct; knowing what lines to draw and where to draw them is the hardest part. By far, your chart is how is how it should have been traded.

It should be noted that Price Action always looks easy to trade in hindsight, however, trading the far right edge in real time is a very different story.

Robert


Yes, I agree that @bobwest 's chart is easier to understand.... the one you posted has too many short buy/sell signals in it and perhaps of you looked at each situation in an intra-day mode and expanded the look it may make more sense...but for a long play his chart is easier to read and play AND causes less in broker fees

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  #491 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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Silver Dragon View Post
@bobwest,

Price action trading also depends on perspective. I marked up your chart with what I saw. As you can see I have many more false positives. You are correct; knowing what lines to draw and where to draw them is the hardest part. By far, your chart is how is how it should have been traded.

It should be noted that Price Action always looks easy to trade in hindsight, however, trading the far right edge in real time is a very different story.

Robert

Sure, I agree with everything you said. Everything is easy in hindsight, after all, and this is actually not so easy to do in real time. People do start out with high hopes, and then find things are not all that easy. (And not just with this method, either.)

I put up the chart only to show what "price action," as a trading method, is all about, in a general way. My little post is not meant to either be a detailed exposition of the method, nor the "right way" to do it, nor a recommendation, one way or the other.

There are people who are very good at this stuff. There are people who are less so, as with everything else. I certainly am not an expert, nor is it really my thing. I have tried to learn something from it, and it can be useful. In fact, the chart I posted is one I currently maintain, along with others. I use it for perspective and, no, the lines I draw are not always that perfect until afterwards. But again, my point was simply to show what it is.

No endorsement, no criticism either.

Bob.

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 bobwest 
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Underexposed View Post
you did not lose the chart

I do this type of charting sometimes and it is very valid as I see it. I have used it myself on occasion especially when discussing Gold eod prices as can be seen in this discussion I did



what puzzles me most of price action charts is that most users restrict themselves to horizontal resistance/support lines when there are equally valid diagonal ones and they use only channels not wedges or triangles. Then of course you throw in "ticks" and the wheels fall off for me.

I still remember early in my posting here criticizing a chart for having an inconsistent x-axis and being told it was a "tick chart".... still don't like how indicators designed for normal time charts, are casually used in tick charts...makes little sense to me.

I use this "price action" but usually in the P&F charts that I use in a complete analysis.

That's funny, I don't think I ever, or hardly ever, see a price action chart on futures.io (formerly BMT) that only has horizontal s/r lines.... I do read a lot of the threads in the Elite section (I read and post in both), so we may not be seeing the same things....

I do see more channels than wedges and such. One of the people who have helped popularize price action, by the name of Mack, and who has inspired a lot of posters here, uses mainly channels. Not horizontal ones, though. Regular trendlines. What I drew on my chart could have been posted on any number of threads, or by Mack for that matter.

Brooks has said that a "channel" doesn't have to only have parallel lines, and cheerfully draws them however they connect up. He's also very keen on wedges, flags, and all the other "classical" (non-indicator) charting formations.

I have noticed that you use P&F charts sometimes, a definite and welcome blast from the past for me, which I also agree can be very useful. It's the same mindset.

Anyway, all that was just to show simply what "price action" is.

Sometime or another we will have to re-visit the tick chart thing. Not today, though.

Bob.

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  #493 (permalink)
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well that is it for me this afternoon. Markets are almost closed and I will post a small loss for the week so far but the week is not over and my streak of positive weekly gains may not be over yet.... or it could be worse

I will post the status in this evening.


I enjoyed the conversation and examples shown this morning...it keeps me sharp and looking at things I don't think about often.

To my American friends....Happy Thanksgiving and Good Friday... may it go well.

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  #494 (permalink)
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here is the status after 3 days this week




It has been a pretty good run for the past 6 weeks and so far it does not look like it will continue. In Canada we are not in the Holiday situation as they are in the USA .... Our markets will be open.

The stocks of concern for the last week or so has been Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] and Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN].

I view Badger as a long term hold which is the reason why I have no limit Stop Loss on it. Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] on the other hand I view as a swing trade which last week was on the verge of going real bad but after placing a Limit Stop-loss on it and trailing it behind, it has performed quite well. I raise the Limit stop Twice to $5.65 -$5.67.

let us look at the charts as they stand after today.

Badger Daylighting

Here is the trigger chart





My suspicions that the run was over a couple of days ago have proven true. Now it is in consolidation and I have pointed out several times it is reaching for the 20 daysma... from the looks of things there is another $1 worth of loss expected.... but that does not bother me with this stock as I believe in the stock and its drop has more to do with the Canadian market conditions, falling oil price (it is a service industry to Oil) and not to anything bad that it is doing to my knowledge. I don't really expect a recovery for about 5-10 days.

The MACD/Slo Sto and BBwidth all give a sign as to the end.... I would like the Slow Sto to stay above 50 though





This chart is showing something I have not seen before and I circled it. The ichimoku looks fine as far as the clouds are concerned...unless the stock plummets we will not hit a cloud....but look at the thin blue/red lines. The share price HAS had a decent drop .... a bearish drop... but instead of the red line reaching for the blue and trying to make a bearish cross.... the red line is dead-assed flat along the border of that red cloud while the blue is racing for the sky. I truly don't know what to make of it other than to think of it as a positive sign.

the other two indicators are mildly bearish but not serious at this point


Lundin Mining





this looks like my raise of the limit stop loss might have been a tiny bit premature But it is done and if there is a downward spike the order could be tripped....

Actually the chart looks better than the one for Badger. there is no sing of an upward curl to the lower BB and the MACD and BBwidth charts show a staggered but positive slope.... the Slo Sto is nicely over 80





This is a much better Ichimoku chart than that for Badger...we have recently cleared the red cloud and the thin blue/red lines are appropriately bullish as well as the indicators below.

Perhaps it will surge tomorrow and continue... when I raised the limit I stated I would raise it again if we closed over $5.90....fingers crossed it will do it tomorrow...or at least pull away from the abyss...if it does not I will have made almost $1000 and I will have to decide what to do with the total money then available

so.... hunker down with Badger....cross fingers for a rise in price on Lundin and no tripping of the stop-loss.

A nice run...not necessarily over yet this week.

Good Trading tomorrow.......

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  #495 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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It is rough in the markets.... especially the Canadian markets which are commodity driven... with the OPEC oil decision to not cut production.

Lundin Mining opened at about $5.50/ share today.... so many might feel my Limit stop-loss would have tripped today. But not so



The red line in the upper left chart shows the previous day's close so we plummeted right through my position. If it was a normal Stop-loss My order would have been filled somewhere less than $5.60 and I would have no control.

My order is still valid between a range of $5.65-$5.67 if it rises there today..... I will leave it for now to see what happens .... I may cancel it and sell at some point, or cancel it all together .... it all depends on how things work out. Suffice it to say I will have a pretty big negative for this week {sigh}

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  #496 (permalink)
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I am canceling the Limit Stop-Loss order for Lundin Mines effective now 11:39am MST





As can be seen in this chart confirming what I posted earlier.... the price opened far below the limit range of $5.65 -$5.67 that I had set for the sale of the stock. There was no reason for this plummet attributable to Lundin Mines itself. In fact this last bit of news I can find is rather good

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

It shows production numbers for a new Nickel/Copper mine in Michigan meeting or exceeding their targets for the past 2 months since it opened.

This last drop for everything is oil related and nervous investors.... nothing top do with mining... in fact if anything it would lower their fuel costs in production... a benefit.

This is why I prefer Limit Stop-Loss over simple Stop-loss.... It gives the control to me if I don't get my target.

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  #497 (permalink)
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I suppose my recent actions look weird to many day traders. It looks like I am ignoring profits, perhaps not following the stocks close enough to make good choices. They may also feel that TA failed in its ability to anticipate these sudden reversals. Well, no one can predict such reversals with any accuracy...TA follows patterns and what happened yesterday and today was not a foreseeable pattern.

OPEC (rather Saudi Arabia) decided NOT to cut production of oil in order to raise the price of oil. As a result, of this decision the price of oil plummeted on the futures market and nervous investors created a run on many stocks.

The decision might have gone the other way too, no one was certain what would happen.... if Saudi Arabia (through OPEC) decided to cut production there would probably been a huge bullish response....

TA cannot accommodate either scenario... so to my way of thinking you just ride out the result.... nothing more to do.... if you panic you lose real money....not have paper losses if you sell.

Ironically, Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] actually after a fall today in early trading, gained on their last closing... and they are an oil patch service company.

Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] fell hard and did not recover much.... and they have nothing to do with the O&G sector as they mine Nickel, Lead, Zinc and Copper...Base metals... it had decent production news....I pulled the plug on the failed Limit Stop-loss order after it failed to trigger since the stock opened far below the limit price range....Why??? because I fully expect it to rise back to those previous levels, recovering those losses.

To those that say "Why not sell and rebuy at the lower price???" Long term traders don't do that, we don't try to squeeze blood from a stone. When the future looks bleak for a real reason, I will pull the plug. However, I do not respond to the panic of a nervous investing climate.... That is how I survived 2008 - 2009... back then nothing made sense to me....I had enough money set aside to ride out the downturn.... and I did...taking massive paper losses during that period but gaining most of them back in the years following when the stocks rebounded.

This week was a rough week totally....I sort of expected it coming as I had 6 great +ve weeks prior to that. It could not be positive forever as much as I would have liked it. I am still in great shape to have a decent 12 months with 2.5 months to go til I will have had this fantasy portfolio for a year (having started it on Feb 14/14)

Anyway here is the status of this end of week



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  #498 (permalink)
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Well as you can see I have not been too active on the site for this week.

I have been rehearsing for a three performance Christmas concert coming up on Sunday (two performances) and Monday evening .... Sunday matinee is sold out, the evening performance is 80% sold out and the Monday is 50% full. We added a third performance as an experiment as we were (and would be today) turning away patrons when 2 performances sold out and we cannot get a larger venue with the acoustics we have in the current facility (a church with a huge stage and a 500 seat sanctuary.

So it is a big deal for us and we are going to raise the roof on that church .... no this is a recreational choir not a church choir.... of 65 women and 25 men give or take a couple on a given day.

Last week was terrible with the Oil announcement by the Saudi's that they were not cutting production and the drop in the price of oil continues...who would have guessed oil would be in the $67/barrel range today??? One wonders if this is a geopolitical move to starve out the Russians as the drop in price must be hurting them big time??

The week started bad but the last 2 days we have recovered most of those losses.

here is the status as of the close of the day today





What about Lundin Mining???





Here is the chart and as you can see it is in consolidation... The price has fallen to the 20daySMA as I expected and now hopefully it goes sideways until the BBwidth gets to its trigger level.... the Slow Sto and MACD are falling and were that to continue and the BBwidth reverses direction...well down we go again .... the Slow Sto is hesitating at 50 and MACD drop is slowing down ... that 50daySMA may be helping us.

Gold????





Actually this is looking promising...but I would wait til I see a real breakout before going back into gold mining stocks...tired of being jilted.

Conclusion

As you can see I am quite busy to think of developing a new thread in this journal for now.... but I will answer questions as best I can if any of you have any... it is nice to see a continued readership and I thank you.

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  #499 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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yea, i thought gold was going back down for sure, and looks like MACD turned back up. it's strange since the dollar is continuing to rally.

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jackbravo View Post
yea, i thought gold was going back down for sure, and looks like MACD turned back up. it's strange since the dollar is continuing to rally.

yes, that certainly looks good but the only thing bothering me is the weak Slow Sto.... it is hanging around 50 and it is usually the leader in a breakout.

here are other charts to develop the consensus of indicators that I usually use to see if there will be something happening.

P&F Chart





You can see we are butting up against not one but two resistances.... a diagonal one AND a horizontal one. The diagonal one is weak but the horizontal is stronger...the two together are additive.

Sentiment chart





here the messages are mixed

The CMF is in the green and bullish though it only MILDLY bullish as the price is not responding with the same vigour as the CMF

The RSI is neutral only ... see how it is flattening out at 50

The DI+/DI- is still bearish but there is some hope the two will reach for eachother


Ichimoku chart





This is another mixed message chart

the price is still under those red clouds and they are significant resistance...both borders and the glue in between. the thin blue line is still under the thin red line so this is still Bearish but we are approaching those clouds s anything can happen

The onBal vol mildly bullish as it has reversed direction and has a nice pos slope

the CCI is bullish now as it is entering the green


Conclusion

So what is the consensus??

1. P&F show price up against a reasonably strong resistance
2. The trigger chart has the price above the 20daySMA and the indicators suggest a try at a breakout

Kind of a saw off there.

the other indicators are

Bullish........... : 1
Mildly bullish.. : 2
Neutral ......... : 1
Mildly bearish. :
Bearish ......... : 2

cancelling out opposites leaves us ever so slightly on the bullish side of neutral

So entering into gold plays is only a WATCH at this point.... an interesting watch but a watch nonetheless.

See how you use non-conflicting indicators to arrive at a consensus??? individually you could be set astray....


EDIT: It was late when I wrote this.... by "non-conflicting" I really meant indicators that do not give the same look to their charts. For example TRIX and MACD, though calculated differently, give similar charts when MACD is not used with a signal line. So if you used both indicators you would get a false IMHO reinforced signal of the market.

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