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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #441 (permalink)
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Update on Badger Daylighting and Lundin Mining

Both of these stocks were purchased as an experiment as they were identified using my "Quadrant" analysis chart.

I am gaining confidence more and more and it is still under construction....not the chart per se....the essence of the chart is cast in concrete now but rather small touches to help remind me when to add a Limit stop-loss (if the share price is TOO BULLISH or headed to bear country or alerts to buy/add shares...

Also for the past 10 days or so I have outlined how I use my "Trigger chart". Now that I down load the hstorical data to spreadsheets, I have more control over creating MY alerts. I have been frustrated with the limitations of website alerting services in that regard. But this is still a very much work in progress....fun though...

I thought I would show the charts for Badger Daylighting and Lundin Mining and comment on the charts as they stand this morning

Badger Daylighting


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It looked bad at closing yesterday....all profits from the last 10 days were wiped out in a plunge. So imagine my surprise when I woke up this morning and saw the rebound...we are almost $3.00/share to the good so far.

The quad chart showed the share price moving out of the Bull quarter (this chart was generated AFTER yesterday's close...but it still hung in there.... with this jump in price that will have be reversed

note: in the Sharpchart that we are above the upper bollie... so I would expect a pullback to about $30 on Monday...but this run if anything is renewed...the SLow sto is over 80 and both MACD and BBwidth have sharp upticks. I don't know what caused that dip yesterday but obviously investors took it as opportunity..... About 10% gain in 10 days is nice with more to come IMHO


Lundin Mining


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A nice jump in price and we are not over the upper bollie so we shauld keep it. We have crashed through another resistance.... first the 50 daySMA and now the 200daySMA...the Slow Sto is firmly over 80 and the MACD and BBwidth have increased their slopes...this is certainly going to be held for a while.

I don't have a lot of time today. I belong to a recreational choir (not a churchy choir). We do performances 3 times per year the first will be a 3 performance Christmas concert a month from now...Sat evening, Sunday matinee/evening. This is a choir of 64 women and 24 guys and we always sell out every performance.

Well this weekend starting tonight we will be in retreat in Canmore, Alberta in the Rockies (actually on the front edges) at the Canmore Nordic Center....beautiful scenery. Here we will rehearse 3 hours today, 8 hours Saturday and 4 hours Sunday....we love it. We have a social tonight, dinner and dance in costumes Saturday (no spouses or significant others at the retreat)... It is a retreat from trading and normal day to day and is my third year doing this.

I will update the status of the portfolio before I go...but that is it.

Good trading

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  #442 (permalink)
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An Awesome Weekly status Nov 14/14

Well!!! What a week....over 4% gain and it is mostly due to the Rise of Badger Daylighting.

We are at an all time high as far as the return on this portfolio....quite a rebound from a month ago when we were at 20% and falling....now we are within spitting distance of a 10% gain and we still have almost 3 months left to the year for this portfolio.

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I do have a serious decision to make with respect to Badger daylighting....I have owned the stock for 10 days and made 11%.... serious coin as you can see.

this is the intra day

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As can be seen there are no clues in the share price other than to reveal the price has entered a BBtunnel....the MACD has dropped but looks like it may want to rise soon.

In a daily chat that I showed earlier today.... the price is a way above the upper BB...Is this a one day run and pullback ? Should I sell and purchase again on that pullback.

I don't have the time as I leave for that retreat in 45 mins but I will be back Sunday evening and look at this in great detail....it could move sideways and take off again....my other charts may help in the decision.

Lundin Minings also made a great contribution...but that one is just a strong bull.

I have basically similar decisions in my real portfolio's....a lot more fun when in a bull situation

See you...Fa la la la..lalala Yeah! practicing Christmas songs

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  #443 (permalink)
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My bad on this message



Underexposed View Post
Well!!! What a week....over 4% gain and it is mostly due to the Rise of Badger Daylighting.

We are at an all time high as far as the return on this portfolio....quite a rebound from a month ago when we were at 20% and falling....now we are within spitting distance of a 10% gain and we still have almost 3 months left to the year for this portfolio.

the bolding is my own....that should have been 2.0% and falling a month ago...NOT 20%...hahahaha

I was in a rush to get out of the apartment and travel into the mountains for the retreat for my recreational choir and I did not proof the message.

This is a sample of our massed choirs singing. There is our group - UP2Something which is roughly 24 tenor and bass singers (I am a tenor 2 which means I don't have to sing the highest men's notes) and 64 alto and soprano singers. It is quite a ratio actually...attracting men to a choir is a major difficulty and we have a good group of men...you can actually hear us in that mass of singers. There is another all women group of about 60 alto/soprano singers called Up2Christmas which morphs into She'sUp2something after Christmas. We all belong to the same organization and usually sing at the same venues though not always.

Can you imagine the task of organizing such a choir chorally...2 groups singing as one. Here is a sample of a signature Christmas repertoire - O Holy Night. I can tell you as a tenor surrounded by all those female voices when they hit their high notes you get a chill up your spine. I am here...you have about a 1/24 chance to know what I really look like



Each year in September the choir reforms after the summer months. There is about a 80% return rate but always there are new additions. We normally rehearse for 3 hours every Tuesday with workshops on the weekends before a performance. This retreat Fri evening/Sat/Sun morning in the majestic Rocky mountains surrounding Canmore, Ab is a chance for the choir to bond. Aside for 3 hours of rehearsal in Fri evening and Sunday morning with about 7-8 hours on Saturday by a visiting choral director who has been doing this retreat for 10 years and would be hurt if he were not invited back....as if that were a problem ...he is amazing. But while these rehearsals ARE fun...we have a welcome party on Friday night and a costumed Dinner and Dance on Saturday from 6:30pm til 2:00am if you have the stamina (I give out at 11:30).... No Spouses or significant others...nice 3/1 women to men ratio...We do a skit from each table... created and rehearsed for 15 mins before we put it on then dancing the night away.... so much fun

Anyway I am tired, had a nap since getting back and going out to get something to eat (too tired to cook).

I will be back to discuss Badger Daylighting and what I think will happen and what I will do....do sell or not to sell.... that is the question?


Last edited by Underexposed; November 17th, 2014 at 01:07 AM.
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ok...what to do with Badger Daylighting

to evaluate whether to sell or hold (too risky to buy more) Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] I always give a complete 4-5 chart analysis PLUS fundamentals. What I do is consider each significant overlay/indicator.... evaluate if the indicator/overlay on its degree of bullish/bearish quality....cancel out opposite and the result is an overall consensus. All indicators lie a little but not at the same time... so a consensus is usually a good guidance for the future.

Fundamentals

Ok...by now you should understand the basics of this chart....but you can go a little further by thinking about the the recent events affecting the chart.

the recent event has been the sudden drop then the 15% rebound....

nearest I can figure...the drop was in anticipation of a bad financial report and when that did not happen the stock came back with a vengeance

here is the announcement of that report:

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

and here are the highlights as published in that report


Quoting 
Highlights for the three months ended September 30, 2014:

Revenues increased by approximately 29 percent to $113.1 million from $87.5 million for the comparable quarter of 2013 due to a 34 percent increase in Canadian revenues and a 24 percent increase in United States revenues. This is the third full quarter in which Fieldtek, acquired in November 2013, has been part of the financial results. Without Fieldtek, Canadian revenues would have increased by 17 percent.

Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 32% in the third quarter of 2014 from 30% for the same quarter of 2013.

Adjusted EBITDA margins were 27 percent for the nine months ended September 30, 2014 compared to 30 percent for the nine months ended September 30, 2013;

Funds generated from operations increased by 58 percent period-over-period to $30.9 million from $19.6 million in the comparable quarter of 2013;

Canadian adjusted EBITDA margins decreased 1% from 32 percent to 31 percent from the comparable period last year due to the impact of the lower margin Fieldtek business. Without Fieldtek Canadian margins would be the same as the previous third quarter.

U.S. adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 33 percent from 32 percent for the comparable period of last year helped by underlying business improvement.

Badger had 957 daylighting units at the end of the third quarter of 2014, reflecting the addition of 174 daylighting units to the fleet to date in 2014 and the retirement of eight units. Of the total, 405 units were operating in Canada and 552 in the United States at quarter-end. Badger had 340 units in Canada and 408 in the United States for a total of 748 units at September 30, 2013. The new units were financed from cash generated from operations and existing credit facilities.

All good news as I can see it...



Quoting 
Internal preparations for anticipated growth in 2014 will be completed;
As long as overall activity in the economy and the oil and natural gas industry remains essentially constant, Badger will be able to continue to grow the business in 2014;
Badger in 2014 can further develop the organization to position itself to be able to handle the planned future growth;
The new locations opened in the United States will provide an increased contribution to cash flows from operations and net profit during 2014;
The current business development initiative will provide Badger with the additional new customers necessary to grow the business in 2014 and the future;
Eastern Canada will continue with steady growth in 2014, driven by activity in the utility and construction segments;
There will be an increase in Western Canada revenue during 2014 due to anticipated project volume and spending in the oil and natural gas sector;
The expectation that Western Canada EBITDA margins will improve during the remainder of 2014; and,
An increase in Company capital will be required to finance the anticipated capital expenditure program.

more good hard info on how management sees the future.


Trigger Chart


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So...a bad feeling in the market place changes to a bullish backlash.


You can see the whiplash did not cause significant changes to the MACD and BBwidth...the MACD is basically back on track...the BBwidth took off and continued to do so. The Slow Sto remained above 80 throughout the 2 day event..... this situation is Bullish

the negative in this chart is the fact that the stock price closed far above the upper bollie.... and this is significant. It means there could be a pullback, though it is possible to re-enter the BB envelope sideways or with a drifting pos slope.I doubt very much given that financial out look that the stock will plunge bearish.

I drew a micro resistance support lines and from the look of it we are in the center for now.


P&F chart outlook


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it is hard to decide if that dotted red line a support or resistance.... we closed above it so technically it is a support but I think it may be a weak one and could collapse.

A better resistance point is in the solid red line above it.

If it falls then it might be a small loss & sideways .... I think that $30.50 - 31.00 will be a possible pullback zone


Sentiment chart outlook


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This chart is a great companion to the trigger chart when approaching resistance/support.

the CMF overlay shows another higher high... it has rebounded from almost crossing the line into the mud. - Bullish

The RSI looks fine, the hiccup of that drop is putting the RSI on a bullish path.... Bullish

the ADX is indecisive.... it looks like indecision right now though there is a cross with the bullish cross of the DI +/- is there but hard to tell if that is permanent - Neutral


Ichmoku chart outlook

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Interesting how the price has pierced the RED cloud...that upper edge of the red cloud is now a support so perhaps my question in the P&F chart is answered.... that red line should be a green support line now. Look in the orange circle....the space between the red/blue thin lines hardly reacted to that drop/rise and rises with the blue high above the red..this is good news

Ichimoku chart - Bullish

OnBal Volume - Bullish

CCI - very bullish


Conclusion

Here are my evaluations

1.0 very Bullish: 1
2.0 Bullish: 4
3.0 Neutral: 1

this gives me an overall impression of Bullish


As a result I will NOT SELL this stock. a small pullback is expected but not serious... I am hoping for this company's share to re-enter the bb envelope soon. IF there is another huge jump tomorrow I may sell at the top...take the profit and look to re-buy on the pullback.

Finally if you look at Friday's close (back a couple of posts)... the intra-day does not feel like a serious pull back...it looks very positive to me.

It is a watch at this point... at least for Monday

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watching BAD.TO live

this is a almost live streaming chart for BAD.TO that I have captured about 15 mins after the bell

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As you can see we are off to a $0.35 increase already. I am glad I did not use a stop-loss at the start of the day as it would have tripped.

As far as the price movement goes on a Intra-day basis it is is hugging the upper BB which I like ..... but it will be miles above the daily upper BB....it it rises much higher I will follow it with a limited stop-loss and trail it upward... right now standing pat

Time 7:50AM

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8:32 update

well it is about 40 mins later now and the share price is doing what I wanted.... it is moving sideways toward the daily Upper BB.

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This website is also monitoring 3 other stocks in my fantasy portfolio.... Toronto Dominion Band [TSX:TD], Enercare [TSX:ECI] and Lundin Mining [TSX:Lun] are all doing well..... it is a great day so far.

The BB's in this chart are tightening...you can see I am using the MACD with a signal line....I have not got any control over this but as you see in an intra-day chart it seems to work well....with the MACD above the signal line again so far so good.

note: my time updates are my time.... MST

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9:15 update

well we dropped from the last....panic??? Nopes....

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Remember the Ichimoku chart from my complete analysis of BAD.TO .....see the top of that red cloud....the green line on the above chart is above the upper edge of the red cloud....it acts as a support now.

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Still performing as I expected ....the pullback from Friday is normal in my books.

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10:00 update

As I thought the price pulled out of the dive...I have created a line that represents the Upper edge of the red cloud that is the strong support now.


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I would not want the price to fall below this line as it would be a fight to get out of that glue.

Looking good... a BB-pinch is slowly forming... my next post will be when it is tight, since that is where the next big movement will happen.

Good trading

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Update 11:30am

In my previous post where I did a complete analysis of this stock I said


Quoting 
If it falls then it might be a small loss & sideways .... I think that $30.50 - 31.00 will be a possible pullback zone

Well as you can see in this screen shot of the day's action this is exactly what happened.....it just did not stay there long ... it dropped to $30.70 dead-assed middle of that range before rebounding.


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Now note what happened in that purple circle....the price is below the lower for 3 intervals...that to me is indicative of a pullback and potential bottom.... and it is NOT a rest...we have rebounded to a profit.

I have also drawn lines using the peaks and troughs of the MACD....they show the bottoms and top of the price changes better than using MACD signal line crosses....don't you think.

SO on Intra-day basis...the TA we have been applying to daily charts has validity to me here as well. I am limited as to how I create my charts here but there is little lag in the prices...not 15 minutes as usual in a free chart.... and Level2Stock Quotes.com IS a FREE service.

We are rising again....going to the moon??? nopes, I would be pleasantly surprised if it topped $31.50 actually I don't want it to rise too high....I want it to continue its sideways shuffle into the BB envelope... having it done so with a slight pos slope (on a daily chart) is very bullish for the future.

This is my last post on this intra-day thing.... it has been interesting to see predictions happen and see that things I have discovered at the daily basis have validity at the intra-day level.

time to do something else with my day.... I am not worried about the last 2 hours or so left.

Good Trading..........

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well Badger Daylighting has jumped another dollar to $32.00 at the morning's bell.

Believe it or not, as a long term player I am not liking this. Again we are miles above the upper BB. We did not reenter the BB envelope yesterday...came close but but it did not happen. It will re-enter soon and we still don't know how it will be done.

If this closes near here and tomorrow rises like this again, I will slap a limit stop loss to protect that profit as it could pull back severely when it decides to come out of the stratosphere.

As a long term trader I want to see steady gains... not large swings.

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