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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #431 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post

I use the "traditional" indicators in assorted ways, not always traditional in the sense that the elementary books say (I don't think I want to sell just because an oscillator is "overbought" for instance -- it can stay that way a long time ), but I have, and do, use them the same way on tick charts as I would on daily charts. And, over time, I expect I have used most of them. (Bollingers and Bollinger Width too. )

Well we are on the same page wrt Overbought/oversold as I have posted against that already.

But the interpretation of things like MACD and Slow Sto seem horribly flawed to me...again as I pointed out.


bobwest View Post
I agree that many, many who post on futures.io (formerly BMT) are trying to scalp for little tiny moves. This is not necessarily a good idea, because you can be wrong much faster that way. And, of course, it's easy to be wrong in the markets. Also, with futures there is enormous leverage, which can magnify losses as well as gains. And I think most people who try it are going to face disappointment or disaster. Many have never traded live before, and have dreams of endless riches in their heads.

It is unpredictable to the point it seems like gambling to me.....however, I say this without really understanding "Price Action" trading. I think price action is a system designed for tick charts...it may be the TA for Tick charts, I don't know but I see no reason for me to investigate it as I am fine with what I have developed


bobwest View Post
Back to the discussion, I have no beef with indicators. On futures.io (formerly BMT) the fashion shifts now and again, as, I suspect, the naive find out that they lose money with method x, so they try method y. I do not attribute indicators being out of favor to tick charts or any other charts, and I do see people using them on tick charts, and some other fairly odd things, and they work, when the person using them can make them work. Anyway, that may all be for another day.

Again I think indicator interpretation in Tick charts being the same as that of normal time charts is fraught with danger. They are not calculated properly so how can they give the same interpretation...and I as I previously said the results have a compounded error in that each candle stick contains a different range of time.

Has a study been done on the applicability of time indicators in tick charts? if there is I would love to read it.


bobwest View Post
As to the Asian session, my only point is that the trading that occurs then does not have the power to move the markets much in the sense of where the whole day ends up. In other words, most of the time, if you look at a daily bar, the trading that caused it to do whatever it did probably came from the regular session. If price goes one way with small participation, what the heavy-hitting traders do during the regular hours will have much more real impact, either way.

I am not sure that this is a blanket observation. It may apply to OIL/Gas because there is comparatively little interest in those commodities in Asia. But I think wrt Precious Metals...Gold, Silver and the like....especially Gold where the purchases of Gold is huge in India, China and Asia in general... the effects on trading in these commodities seem to travel world round with influence on the NY market when it opens.


So, if someone is trading based on daily candles, they are basically seeing and relying mostly on what was done during the regular hours, anyway... eliminating the Asian data will have little influence....UNLESS for some reason there was an issue that sparked vigorous activity in Asia...if this happened you would be ignoring something that may have a heavy influence on the NY market.

So... with the action is little Asian markets contribute little to the daily candle but if it is vigourous ti would I think if there was such data I would want to see it in a chart..


bobwest View Post
I would not want to trade much during the non-regular hours (sometimes called pre-market hours) because the light activity, in my opinion, makes any move thin and fairly suspect. Sure, you can trade electronically any time over the roughly 23-hour period, but I don't think the low-participation times are that reliable. (If I did, it would be with tick charts.)

I will agree as far as trading goes....why track data though that you won't use??? Does compressing it make it more valid? I don't think so.

I think you will find my analysis (next post) on some (not all) interesting.


bobwest View Post
There's another way to skin this cat that I see people do, which is chart only the regular hours. So for a stock, that is the NY open to the close. I think that most (almost all) minute or hour-based charts of stocks do it that way, because very few stocks will trade outside the regular close. (I may be out of date on this, it's been a while since I looked at stocks.) But if you chart ES (S&P 500 futures) on a regular hours-only basis, which many people do, then you have exactly the same type of chart.

Does it work? Yeah. Because it just cuts off the less-consequential part of the trading day and focuses on the main part. That is not too different from tick charts compressing the less-consequential part. I do like to know what has happened before the regular session, because it's not completely inconsequential, but I take it as a hint, not much more.

As you will see, I would ONLY trade in OIL/GAS during the NY hours....I would have to see gold charts to have an opinion there.

Agreed... I would not ignore the rest of the world action as it may be a prelude to the NY market.


bobwest View Post
My main beef with only plotting the regular hours is that it can give discontinuous jumps if price gaps up or down from the previous close, which will distort indicators some in early trading. I do think they are robust enough to withstand it, though. Also, I do want to know if the open will have a gap, and the only way to know is to look at the pre-market.

I don't really agree on that...compressing the data does not enhance the interpretation/calculation of indicators in a tick chart...and frankly is normal in a time chart. In a stock chart, there are stocks that often have periods of small activity...nothing is done to compensate for this in interpreting the chart...has not bothered me anyway ... if anything I would probably ignore the stock all together.

Don't forget...indicators take time to ramp up to their true levels... MACD take 26 time intervals or tick intervals to get the first valid number....Slow Sto takes 30 time intervals or 30 tick intervals to get up to speed. If you ignore the Europe and Asian data you are ignoring the normal values... In the case of Tick data from the sounds of it you may be ignoring much more data in the calculation in the NY market simply because one tick may be several times more time than a constant time interval.



bobwest View Post
Thanks for reading all this (assuming you did ). I do get carried away....

Obviously I have ... you have an interesting POV. I may not agree on all points but what you say is interesting to me... this is how I learn my TA ... I have missed such discussions for 9 months on this site.

Next post I will comment on your charts...I have worked on a few already....but this post is long enough as it is

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Underexposed View Post
It is unpredictable to the point it seems like gambling to me.....however, I say this without really understanding "Price Action" trading. I think price action is a system designed for tick charts...it may be the TA for Tick charts, I don't know but I see no reason for me to investigate it as I am fine with what I have developed

"Price action" has nothing to do with tick charts as such, nor necessarily short-term charts or trading. It is drawing trend lines and channels, support and resistance, and chart patterns. Usually with no indicators at all, except sometimes a moving average. It is the most traditional technical analysis possible, the original technical analysis of the early chartists.

It was recently popularized, or re-popularized, by Al Brooks, who only uses 5-minute charts of the regular session of the S&P futures, with 15 and 60 minute as context. (And daily/weekly/monthly for long-term perspective.)

By the way, most people probably don't use tick charts, not that it matters. Just wanted to fill in some context.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
"Price action" has nothing to do with tick charts as such, nor necessarily short-term charts or trading. It is drawing trend lines and channels, support and resistance, and chart patterns. Usually with no indicators at all, except sometimes a moving average. It is the most traditional technical analysis possible, the original technical analysis of the early chartists.

It was recently popularized, or re-popularized, by Al Brooks, who only uses 5-minute charts of the regular session of the S&P futures, with 15 and 60 minute as context. (And daily/weekly/monthly for long-term perspective.)

By the way, most people probably don't use tick charts, not that it matters. Just wanted to fill in some context.

Bob.

{shrug} then I do price action without putting a name to it...I should do more trending in the main chart than I do but my success using my charts as they are makes me somewhat complacent. I think using trends is really important but I see many using horizontal trends only....diagonal trends don't appear as often.

I should do a post on trending in short interval (5 min) stock charts.... that combined with normal MACD c/w signal line should be a winner to me for swing trades

I do see a lot of tick charts on this site though.


Anyway let us look at your charts.

I will start by saying I have a much easier time looking at Time interval charts rather than tick charts of any stripe. I seem to get more readable charts with equal time intervals....the tick chart indicators give me mixed signals

Tick Charts

We will start with the CL7500 Tick chart


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I only see 3 trades in all of that data and the second one is hardly worth while.

Starting from the left there is a short. I am not sure if we would see such a drop earlier or the bottom faster in a time chart but it seems late to me. As such it would be a reasonable short, I would expect. I don't like the indication in that yellow circle though...mixed messages in the slow Sto and MACD...I cannot decide if it is a "rest" or "recovery"

I see a poor trade later with the dashed lines... the trigger is very late and the peaks come too late making it not a great trade.

Then there is a reasonable trigger for another short... late again but to do it earlier is dicey..... here is the problem....I don't see a MACD/BBwidth pinch so that would not be a very analytical trade. I suppose I should have made it to the left of that thicker grey line but I'd be guessing....

At the end I have little clue as to the direction of the price....mixed messages (slow Sto high, MACD finally playing catch-up (sort of) and no clue what the BBwidth will do)

You will note: I am removing the black background in the indicators 'cause I cannot see the lines well otherwise.


CL1500 tick chart


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I don't see anything here I would hazard a trade on.

the Bottom indicated by the MACD/BBwidth pinch did not even skip a beat in the downward plunge of the price


Equal Time Interval Charts


Daily Time Chart

I have a little more confidence on these charts


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from the left, there is a clear bottom here.... see the rise of the MACD and the Slow Sto along with the drop of the BBwidth following the "Pinch"... very clear

then the next trade is clear...the proper trigger is the solid green line....personally I would not have used the dashed green line. an Absolutely classic (for my TA) sell sign with the solid red line showing all three indicators in neg slope. I don't know how much you would gain from this but it looks like more than I normally see.

I don't see much that would grab my attention until the blue box.

the left edge of that blue box shows a rising BBwidth with falling MACD and Slow Stop....a better and not much different entry for the short is shown by the Green dashed line just before August.

Either way this is the beginning of a LONG short.... the Slow sto stays low until Oct.....there is no clear sign to cover your short as the BBwidth stays up until the 1st week of October. By the time it rises the Slow Sto and MACD take another plunge....this is where you could start a short if you did not earlier, add to the existing short if you could do that (sorry I don't short ) or just treat this as confirmation that the short you started in July is still viable.

Note the "pinch" in the circle.... it is obviously a rest....the MACD and Slow Sto stay in the mud and the price falls more... not end in sight so far.

So easy to chart

5 min chart


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This is an interesting chart. I really see only one play here...and you are right...it takes place during the highly active NY market.... shown by the blue box.

See how well defined that buy signal is...the pinch is a bit late BUT look at that little yellow circle .... the price is driven below the lower BB.... pullback time....there is your clue the bottom is found. I would not necessarily buy on the pinch as I show.... but the dashed green line is definitely a buy(rising slow Sto/MACD/BBwidth)

The sell signal is not as clear HOWEVER note the yellow circle contents....the price is above the upper BB....there is the clue to exit the trade.

now you see that the trade is reduced....but it is still there...activity in the Slow Sto...the BBwidth gets tighter. I would surely pay attention to the opening in Europe and then in NY since a major move is in the offing... on the left side you see the European action heading into the NY time.... significant trading that I would not was to ignore.


Conclusion

Time charts are much easier for me to interpret. It is obvious here

One chart I would like to see is a time and tick chart for one day....with only MACD complete with 9 intervalEMA signal line

that might be even better at getting thos smaller trades.

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Underexposed View Post
Conclusion

Time charts are much easier for me to interpret. It is obvious here

One chart I would like to see is a time and tick chart for one day....with only MACD complete with 9 intervalEMA signal line

that might be even better at getting thos smaller trades.

Thanks. It'll take a while to digest and have a comment, but it is interesting.

Basically, it's fine with me whatever you find that works for you. I am interested in these types of indicators (Bollingers, BB pinch, etc.) and it's fun to try things out in new ways.

I didn't realize that to tick or not to tick would ever become an issue.... but, OK, no problem. Different strokes for different folks.

I'll want to go back and do some review of the earlier posts in this thread because I scanned through some of them (my bad). I do like the overall use of the BB's, the pinch and the other indicators.

I like this kind of trying out new ideas to see where they go. I'll do what I can to add something, or at least try to, as soon as I can pry loose some time.

Thanks for the updates.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
Thanks. It'll take a while to digest and have a comment, but it is interesting.

Basically, it's fine with me whatever you find that works for you. I am interested in these types of indicators (Bollingers, BB pinch, etc.) and it's fun to try things out in new ways.

All I am doing is showing what works for me and what doesn't. I am also open to different ideas. If you have an approach that you are willing to share, I am all ears.

I am not trying to convert anyone to my approach. If you like what I do....fine. I think I have presented it in such a manner that it can be used by others. For the newbies that read these posts...there are many ways to skin the charting cat...I obviously like what I do and continually add to my approach as I learn more and more about charting...there is no end to it.


bobwest View Post
I didn't realize that to tick or not to tick would ever become an issue.... but, OK, no problem. Different strokes for different folks.

well I just did not say "I don't like Tick Charts". I think I presented pretty good reasons for not liking Tick charts with indicators


bobwest View Post
I'll want to go back and do some review of the earlier posts in this thread because I scanned through some of them (my bad). I do like the overall use of the BB's, the pinch and the other indicators.

I like this kind of trying out new ideas to see where they go. I'll do what I can to add something, or at least try to, as soon as I can pry loose some time.

Your time, charts and comments are great....this dialog was what I have missed in this website...not only yourself but also @Malthus and @ matevisky and others are making welcome contributions.

Come back whenever you can

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Mid week status report Nov 12/14

Well this is yet another good week. If this hangs on til Friday we shall have 5 positive weekly returns...a record in this portfolio as you can see.

Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] and Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] recently purchased following help from my new Quadrant Chart are performing very well indeed....The year end for this portfolio is the first week of Feb next year...at this rate we should clear the 10% return for the year.

Here is the current status

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Good trading

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can you show me with some charts and indies of your favorite setup?


Last edited by Itchymoku; November 13th, 2014 at 03:19 AM.
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Itchymoku View Post
can you show me with some charts and indies of your favorite setup?

Welcome to the this thread.

I can show you a couple of charts that make up my "Trigger chart" which identifies price breakouts for stocks but to describe how this chart is used has been a major topic of this thread in this journal for the last ten days. It takes time to learn how I do interpret this chart (I will give examples below) that is why I went through each overlay and indicator that I use.

https://futures.io/trading-journals/30636-underexposed-canadian-stock-journal-38.html#post450804

this is the starting point of the discussion. It is a lot to read to get from there to here but Hopefully , it will be understandable if you wade through this and you find it interesting.

I don't do futures, commodities or forex but I believe I have dealt with examples of such charts over the course of this discussion. Recently the subject of "Tick" charts versus normal "time" charts has come up. I find it difficulct to interpret Tick charts...there are a lot of lags and mixed messages in the indicators (Slow Stochastics and MACD especially) and I believe that these indicators are improperly calculated when Tick data is used and so it does not surprice me now when I here traders here say that indicators are useless. These and other indicators were never designed with tick data in mind.

Here are some charts using my "Trigger chart"

Equity Stock - Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]


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it is late and I will only give a quick status of this stock.

On about Oct 18 the stock reached a bottom as shown by the MACD/BBwidth "pinch". The drop of the price below the lower Bollinger band is a huge portent of a bottom as well.

The start of the slide in price was on Sept 22 with the rise of the BBwidth and drop of the Slow Stochastics and MACD

After the bottom the stock is in consolidation (typically by rising to meet the 20day SMA) until Oct 29 where the BBwidth rises along with the Slow Sto and MACD.

Currently the stock may be nearing a top as $57.50 looks like a resistance point....the BBwidth is curling at this point but the other 2 indicators are still strong so that resistance will be at least attacked.

I have 2 other charts that have not been discussed yet that might shed light on if the the attack would be successful or not....however that is for another time .... after 10 days of lecturing on this chart I am not ready to start another chart discussion at this point....


Commodity - Gold [$Gold]


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Gold has been hard to predict, long term. There are a couple of times it looked like a bottom to this decline has been found only to see the slide continue since July14. Currently there is the start of a MACD/BBwidth pinch but to be complete the MACD must have a positive slope and the BBwidth a negative slope but both are flat. So currently it is only a "rest" and gold could drop further.

Forex - USD/CAD [$USDCAD]


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the climb began on July 28 with the rise of the Slow Sto/MACD and finally the BBWidth....the BBWidth is the "trigger" to buy always (or sell).... this came after the MACD/BBwidth Pinch which is clear on July 2.

the reason to hold since July 28 is the look of the MACD and Slow Sto....the MACD is pretty flat with a slight rise...the Slow sto has not dipped below 50 and remains somewhat bullish. Other than the small dips which on a daily basis may be profitable trades there is nothing for a long term trader like me to abandon a position if I had takeken it back on July 28.


So there are 3 charts on a long term basis.

If you read the discussion starting at the link I gave at the beginning you will see How I apply each indicator and why I have chosen the parameters That I have.

Time to sleep.... Night

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Underexposed View Post
Welcome to the this thread.

I can show you a couple of charts that make up my "Trigger chart" which identifies price breakouts for stocks but to describe how this chart is used has been a major topic of this thread in this journal for the last ten days. It takes time to learn how I do interpret this chart (I will give examples below) that is why I went through each overlay and indicator that I use.

https://futures.io/trading-journals/30636-underexposed-canadian-stock-journal-38.html#post450804

this is the starting point of the discussion. It is a lot to read to get from there to here but Hopefully , it will be understandable if you wade through this and you find it interesting.

I don't do futures, commodities or forex but I believe I have dealt with examples of such charts over the course of this discussion. Recently the subject of "Tick" charts versus normal "time" charts has come up. I find it difficulct to interpret Tick charts...there are a lot of lags and mixed messages in the indicators (Slow Stochastics and MACD especially) and I believe that these indicators are improperly calculated when Tick data is used and so it does not surprice me now when I here traders here say that indicators are useless. These and other indicators were never designed with tick data in mind.

Here are some charts using my "Trigger chart"

Equity Stock - Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]


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it is late and I will only give a quick status of this stock.

On about Oct 18 the stock reached a bottom as shown by the MACD/BBwidth "pinch". The drop of the price below the lower Bollinger band is a huge portent of a bottom as well.

The start of the slide in price was on Sept 22 with the rise of the BBwidth and drop of the Slow Stochastics and MACD

After the bottom the stock is in consolidation (typically by rising to meet the 20day SMA) until Oct 29 where the BBwidth rises along with the Slow Sto and MACD.

Currently the stock may be nearing a top as $57.50 looks like a resistance point....the BBwidth is curling at this point but the other 2 indicators are still strong so that resistance will be at least attacked.

I have 2 other charts that have not been discussed yet that might shed light on if the the attack would be successful or not....however that is for another time .... after 10 days of lecturing on this chart I am not ready to start another chart discussion at this point....


Commodity - Gold [$Gold]


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Gold has been hard to predict, long term. There are a couple of times it looked like a bottom to this decline has been found only to see the slide continue since July14. Currently there is the start of a MACD/BBwidth pinch but to be complete the MACD must have a positive slope and the BBwidth a negative slope but both are flat. So currently it is only a "rest" and gold could drop further.

Forex - USD/CAD [$USDCAD]


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the climb began on July 28 with the rise of the Slow Sto/MACD and finally the BBWidth....the BBWidth is the "trigger" to buy always (or sell).... this came after the MACD/BBwidth Pinch which is clear on July 2.

the reason to hold since July 28 is the look of the MACD and Slow Sto....the MACD is pretty flat with a slight rise...the Slow sto has not dipped below 50 and remains somewhat bullish. Other than the small dips which on a daily basis may be profitable trades there is nothing for a long term trader like me to abandon a position if I had takeken it back on July 28.


So there are 3 charts on a long term basis.

If you read the discussion starting at the link I gave at the beginning you will see How I apply each indicator and why I have chosen the parameters That I have.

Time to sleep.... Night


Thanks, this has convinced me to stay tuned into subscribing to your thread. I honestly haven't read the entire thread so I apologize for my naivete. I have a hard time tackling large threads with lots of content. I can only count a few journals I've read from start to finish on one hand because I'm a slow reader since I have a bad eye. I will try and skim through when I have time.

I've been thinking about that comic picture you used with the king and the salesman which has me thinking. I'm going to follow these setups and perhaps do some of my own research on them. I don't have to trade them in conjunction with my own setups, I can do them apart so they aren't interfering in my head if that makes sense.

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Underexposed View Post
Welcome to the this thread.

I can show you a couple of charts that make up my "Trigger chart" which identifies price breakouts for stocks but to describe how this chart is used has been a major topic of this thread in this journal for the last ten days. It takes time to learn how I do interpret this chart (I will give examples below) that is why I went through each overlay and indicator that I use.

https://futures.io/trading-journals/30636-underexposed-canadian-stock-journal-38.html#post450804

this is the starting point of the discussion. It is a lot to read to get from there to here but Hopefully , it will be understandable if you wade through this and you find it interesting.

I don't do futures, commodities or forex but I believe I have dealt with examples of such charts over the course of this discussion. Recently the subject of "Tick" charts versus normal "time" charts has come up. I find it difficulct to interpret Tick charts...there are a lot of lags and mixed messages in the indicators (Slow Stochastics and MACD especially) and I believe that these indicators are improperly calculated when Tick data is used and so it does not surprice me now when I here traders here say that indicators are useless. These and other indicators were never designed with tick data in mind.

Here are some charts using my "Trigger chart"

Equity Stock - Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]


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it is late and I will only give a quick status of this stock.

On about Oct 18 the stock reached a bottom as shown by the MACD/BBwidth "pinch". The drop of the price below the lower Bollinger band is a huge portent of a bottom as well.

The start of the slide in price was on Sept 22 with the rise of the BBwidth and drop of the Slow Stochastics and MACD

After the bottom the stock is in consolidation (typically by rising to meet the 20day SMA) until Oct 29 where the BBwidth rises along with the Slow Sto and MACD.

Currently the stock may be nearing a top as $57.50 looks like a resistance point....the BBwidth is curling at this point but the other 2 indicators are still strong so that resistance will be at least attacked.

I have 2 other charts that have not been discussed yet that might shed light on if the the attack would be successful or not....however that is for another time .... after 10 days of lecturing on this chart I am not ready to start another chart discussion at this point....


Commodity - Gold [$Gold]


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Gold has been hard to predict, long term. There are a couple of times it looked like a bottom to this decline has been found only to see the slide continue since July14. Currently there is the start of a MACD/BBwidth pinch but to be complete the MACD must have a positive slope and the BBwidth a negative slope but both are flat. So currently it is only a "rest" and gold could drop further.

Forex - USD/CAD [$USDCAD]


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the climb began on July 28 with the rise of the Slow Sto/MACD and finally the BBWidth....the BBWidth is the "trigger" to buy always (or sell).... this came after the MACD/BBwidth Pinch which is clear on July 2.

the reason to hold since July 28 is the look of the MACD and Slow Sto....the MACD is pretty flat with a slight rise...the Slow sto has not dipped below 50 and remains somewhat bullish. Other than the small dips which on a daily basis may be profitable trades there is nothing for a long term trader like me to abandon a position if I had takeken it back on July 28.


So there are 3 charts on a long term basis.

If you read the discussion starting at the link I gave at the beginning you will see How I apply each indicator and why I have chosen the parameters That I have.

Time to sleep.... Night


Thanks, this has convinced me to stay tuned into subscribing to your thread. I honestly haven't read the entire thread so I apologize for my naivete. I have a hard time tackling large threads with lots of content. I can only count a few journals I've read from start to finish on one hand because I'm a slow reader since I have a bad eye. I will try and skim through when I have time.

I've been thinking about that comic picture you used with the king and the salesman which has me thinking. I'm going to follow these setups and perhaps do some of my own research on them. I don't have to trade them in conjunction with my own setups, I can do them apart so they aren't interfering in my head if that makes sense. Maybe I can do part of it here chartgame.com

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