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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #411 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Just to confirm the order that I said on Saturday

Entered the order for limit Bid for 3000 shares of LUN.TO @5.30

Edit: I will change the limit price to $5.35...that is the top of the support band, not the bottom. This way I would be more sure to catch a downward spike

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  #412 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014




As you can see from this chart that the share price touched $5.35 twice with enough volume that I will consider that my order for 3000 shares has been filled. It may fall again but right now it seems to be returning to the 20 interval SMA for now.

So that buy was complete and shows you that the share price rising high above the upper BB on Friday means pullback

Gotta go now ...will post on the Slow Sto in the evening.

Good trading....

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  #413 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


As I pointed out earlier this morning, I did get my bid for my portfolio here (as well as in reality) It touched the bid price of $5.35 briefly in the morning and at the end of the day it dropped below to $5.33




From the look of it I might have gotten my original bid of $5.30 early tomorrow but a few cents either way doesn't matter much on a long term hold




You can see that we are now comfortably on the Upper BB....that did not have to happen today, it could have taken a few more days. That pattern of pullbacks of share prices that spike above the upper or below the lower BB is VERY useful

You can also see that the chart is still in breakout mode....the BBWidth is still rising as is the MACD and Slow Sto. That resistance we see in the previous P&F chart that I posted about 5 posts ago, appears to be the 50DaySMA

I think this resistance will be severely tested tomorrow and hopefully breached.

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  #414 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post

You can also see that the chart is still in breakout mode....the BBWidth is still rising as is the MACD and Slow Sto. That resistance we see in the previous P&F chart that I posted about 5 posts ago, appears to be the 50DaySMA

I think this resistance will be severely tested tomorrow and hopefully breached.

I love this. Do what you say, say what you do!

Máté
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  #415 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


matevisky View Post
I love this. Do what you say, say what you do!

thanks...my whole journal has been like that. I do have the advantage of being a long term player so there is no problem documenting the steps. If I was constantly studying a chart for small gains and executing these plays it would not be possible to document thoughts. It is an aspect of long term trading that I like.... it is more relaxed and less stressful once you get the hang of it.

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  #416 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have showed you how I set up the Slow Stochastic indicator and how I interpret the patterns which is certainly not the normal way.

This indicator is really useful in helping me to decide whether or not to keep a stock AFTER the end of a bull run. It fills that gap in knowledge.

Enercare Inc [TSX:ECI]





It was not hard to hang onto ECI in that first blue box ....it was never below 50 in the whole time...it was always in the bullish area as the MACD and BBwidth declined.

THe Green box area would have indicated caution but look at the BBwidth...as the Slow Sto was starting to fall....the BBwidth was flat as a board...the trigger was not being pulled...the BBWidth was not rising.

then in the last box the Slow Sto started to rise again... the MACD followed and THEN the BBwidth rose and was the trigger to another bull run.

The dashed pink line shows a potential problem but look at the MACD and BBWidth as the RSI fell....they are flat...no reason to sell .....if the BBwidth kept rising AND the MACD fell that would have been a sign to sell....but that did not happen...the Slow Stow recovered....life is good

Berkshire Hathaway [NYSE:BRK/A]





You have to see how the trigger "group" are acting. Individually they don't give good information all the time but when viewed together it is a different story.

1. the Slow sto is Mildly bullish the whole time....the MACD is pretty flat...the BBwidth is dead-assed flt.... no reason to buy or sell.

2 Before this box, the Slow sto and MACD fall and the BBwidth starts to rise.... Is this a time to sell??? Wait! the price fell below the lower BB...is it a head fake? Yes it is....the Slow sto reverses direction, the MACD does too...the BBwidth resumes its climb....it is the start of a bullish run , confirmed on Aug 11 when the real breakout occurs.

3. the Slow STO starts a severe decline....so does the MACD...if the BBWidth rose suddenly it would be a clear sell sign....but it doesn't react like the others. It ends with the price falling below the Lower BB...another head fake. The Slow sto starts to rise... the MACD halts its fall the small rise in the BBwidth falls back....no reason to sell

4. the Slow Sto and MACCD continue to rise Nov 1 the BBwidth rises suddenly....another bullish rise has begun.


Silver (eod)





1. No reason to buy until June 14 ...see how the Slow Sto leads the way with a rise....the MACD follows then the BBwidth triggers the buy

2. All is bullish with the Slow Sto...no problem in the consolidation stage of the price.

3. trouble on the horizon...Slow Sto falls along with the MACD...Aug 25 the BBwith rises....time to sell then (Aug 25)

4 See how the Slow Sto drops into the mud and stays there... the decline of the MACD...the rise of the BBWidth means nothing on Sept 22...this is still a bear....On Oct 4 there is a MACD/BBwidth Pinch....the fall is over ....If this was a stock and you were shorting it over this period it would be time to cover that short.

5. Is the fall over??? Nopes , it was just a rest the Slow sto Starts to rise but never clears the bearish territory...the BBwidth falls during this time...no trigger, no buy signal. At Oct 29 the BBwidth suddenly rises sharply...the MACD and Slow sto is falling .....another bear run begins


Conclusion

See how you build a story ... how each indicator contributes to the conclusion.

here are some rules I follow in this chart now that it is complete.


1. A bull run start occurs with the rise of the Slow Sto, followed by the MACD rising and triggered by the sudden rise of the BBwidth

2. A bear run starts with the fall of the Slow Sto, followed by the MACD falling and triggered by the sudden rise of the BBwidth

3. the end of a bull run occurs when the MACD and BBwidth BOTH reverse direction and turn negative.

4. The end of a bear run occurs when the MACD turns positive and BBwidth turns negative ( MACD/BBwidth pinch)

5. The decision to hold a stock through the consolidation period following a bull run, depends on the Slow sto remaining above 80 preferably or at least above 50 if the BBwidth remains flat.

6. At the end of a bear run, it will be just a rest if the Slow Sto does not rise

7. Following a bull or bear run...there is a consolidation period....the share price in both cases will tend to gravitate toward the 20daySMA and twist around this line until the BBwidth falls to its "trigger" level

8. Rises above or falls below the Upper/lower BB by share price usually last 2-5 days. If they occur near the end of a bull run they are definite sell signals as the share price will plummet soon after....despite pumpers saying this stock is "going to the moon"

**********************
It is getting late and I am sure I could think of a few more things if I tried.

This is a VERY useful chart...I have 3 others that I use during a consolation period to try to predict the direction when the BB's get tight.

I may talk about those charts in the future but I am going to take a break from lecturing for a while.

If you, the readers, want to have me give a reading of this chart on anything with a price/time chart I enjoy challenges like that. while it sort of worked on tick charts it was not as clear to read though.

Lots to talk about, eh......what you have read in the last 2 weeks took me 3-5 years to figure out...If you like this chart and practice its use I think you will benefit a lot.

Good trading.....

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  #417 (permalink)
Madrid Spain
 
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Very interesting chart. I tried with a 10 min chart of the ES. Correct me if you see something different.

1 - Price breaks the upper Band but BBwidth never triggers and MACD is bearish, so we stay out.

2 - Short setup that quickly reverses, but we keep our short since BB is flat. SMA holds and price starts to fall again.

3 - Another possible short entry but risky since it's against resistance.

4 - BB falling, MACD rising and Sto rising, time to get out of our short.

5 - This was a possible short but BB was not on the trigger zone.

6 - Another short opportunity.

Feel free to comment. Here is the clean chart of the same day.

EDIT: I re uploaded them:



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  #418 (permalink)
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Malthus View Post
Very interesting chart. I tried with a 10 min chart of the ES. Correct me if you see something different.




1 - Price breaks the upper Band but BBwidth never triggers and MACD is bearish, so we stay out.

2 - Short setup that quickly reverses, but we keep our short since BB is flat. SMA holds and price starts to fall again.

3 - Another possible short entry but risky since it's against resistance.

4 - BB falling, MACD rising and Sto rising, time to get out of our short.

5 - This was a possible short but BB was not on the trigger zone.

6 - Another short opportunity.

Feel free to comment. Here is the clean chart of the same day.


@Malthus, it looks like your charts have succumbed to the dread futures.io (formerly BMT) Disappearing Chart Syndrome .... at least, I can't see them. I've noticed that sometimes they vanish, although I think the person who posted them can still see them.

Could you reload?

Thanks.

Good conversation here, by the way....

Bob.

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  #419 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post

Bob.

Can you see them now? I could see them so I didn't know the rest of you couldn't

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  #420 (permalink)
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Malthus View Post
Can you see them now? I could see them so I didn't know the rest of you couldn't

Yes, they are there now.

This happens. I recall that @Underexposed has commented on it also in another thread. -- An un-diagnosed futures.io (formerly BMT) glitch.

Sometimes I get it on a long post, and it's possible that it's the time I keep the edit window open, more than the actual post length in words. I don't know.

I've taken to not uploading charts until I've written everything else, unless it's all short....

Thanks.

These bands/indicators do make for an interesting topic.

Bob.

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