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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #401 (permalink)
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Bidding for another Phantom Portfolio stock

If you look at the status for the thread's phantom portfolio that I posted on Friday..there is $17,000 in cash on hand

I went looking for a new stock to spend it on.

I have still been working on my new chart format. I am getting excited about it now as it is so easy to use. I have a whole workbook devoted to Toronto Stock Exchange and its indices. I cannot find historical data on most of them but there are iShare ETF's that mimic the various indices and I can get historical data for them.

The way I am thinking of using these types of chart, is as a mega watch list.

First all I have to do is update the workbook of TSX indices. If one or more of those show improvement then I take the workbook that is devoted to that particular index... I then run the macro on the stocks that contains the stocks for that index to see which ones are really performing.... Then from there I do my regular complete charting analysis to make my final picks......

Sweet!!! I can leave the worksheets of individual stocks alone until I see an improvement in their sub index. Minimal work as a screener.

*******************************************

So here is the result of my quadrant chart analysis. You see I have improved the look a bit... I have added two yellow lines near the center. If the arrows rise into this area then it is becoming bullish... If it is falling into this area then the stock.index is becoming bearish.

The dark line at the top is a warning that the stock is trending really high. If I have had it long enough then I probably set a limit Stop-loss. A stock cannot rise forever...I have been the victim of profit loss countless times because I held a stock to long. So by setting a limit stop loss about 5% down from the current position then I give it a chance to continue rising but if a failure in the trend occurs I will with no emotion sell the stock and make a nice profit.


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As you can see the arrows for the index (base metals) and the stock, Lundin Mining Corp [TSX:LUN], engaged in mining copper, zinc, lead and nickel are headed into bullish territory


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As you can see from this history, the phantom portfolio has had this stock twice.... losing $335 on the first play but making $1,230 on the second play...

Here is the sharpchart....my "trigger chart" it has the last Indicator in it (Slow Stochastics) which we will discuss in detail tomorrow


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You can see the sharp rise in the Slow Sto, MACD and the BBwidth... it looks like the start of a breakout.

Two problems I can see

1. there is a bearish 50daySMA cross of the 200daySMA...but other charts which I won't show here show bull so that is cancelled out IMHO

2. The share price is far above the upper BB....I will use this to determine the price that I will set my bid. Note the upper BB is at $5.33 and the closing price was $5.40... I will be looking for a pullback to somewhere areound that level on Monday.

Here is the last few days in intra-day


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Even though this chart looks really bullish, and it has been this way for 3 days, the jump over the upper BB makes me pretty confident I can get it cheaper than the last close...there is a support at $5.30...I think it will fall to there.

So...Just after the Bell on Monday morning trading... I will enter a limit Bid for 3000 shares of LUN.TO @5.30


We shall see if I can get it at that price.

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Underexposed View Post
So...Just after the Bell on Monday morning trading... I will enter a limit Bid for 3000 shares of LUN.TO @5.30


We shall see if I can get it at that price.

Since it has yet to break the 50 SMA, wouldn't it be better to wait for the expected pullback and then enter when it breaks the 50 SMA? Just in case the pullback is stronger than expected.

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Malthus View Post
Since it has yet to break the 50 SMA, wouldn't it be better to wait for the expected pullback and then enter when it breaks the 50 SMA? Just in case the pullback is stronger than expected.

yes, it could fall back from the 50 daySMA...one thing I did not check out is the P&F chart that I use which will show major resistance/supports.... not like the intra-day chart which shows micro-supports.

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As you can see...on friday the share price broke out of a small triangle and stopped at a small resistance. There is, over and above the small intra-day support that we found, a support at $5.30 shown in this chart.... so to me this makes $5.30 a decent support...so I don't anticipate a plunge below this level....there may be a spike down to this and perhaps a bit below but I doubt it will close below this level.

Just above the minor resistance at $5.40 I see a stronger band at $5.50 - $5.55....if that is broken then we are golden.

Actually I am testing my new quadrant analysis chart. this is a phantom portfolio, right? It is a place for testing ones ideas. I don't use simulators...I try to make things as close to reality as possible.

The conservative approach would be to wait until the share price broke the 50 and 200 daysma's....if you look at that Sharpchart the broad band of resistance is pretty much similar to the gap between the 50 and 200 daySMA's

from my point of view using this quad chart....the sub index is getting increasingly bullish.... the stock chart is reacting the same....let us see if this is portent of the future.

You will recall I used this chart to make a buy on Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] last week and we are up a couple of % since last Monday.

I guess I seeing if this works again.

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Underexposed View Post

Edit - 6:30PM

I took another look at this chart...especially the time frame between the two charts and I see my thoughts that the time chart showed the end of day trading...and looking at the tick chart I see that was false. My advice of watching the time chart was bang on though....I advised that things looked not bad but to treat it as a watch... not buy and that turned out looking at the times on the tick chart...soon after the price fell.... always wait for that BBwidth trigger...jumping the gun is spinning the one bullet cylinder on a revolver and pulling the trigger...occasionally you get shot

I don't know why there was some missing data. This is the chart until the end of day. As you can see that long was the same head fake we saw in the 2000 tick chart. after that there was the correct short.

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Malthus View Post
I don't know why there was some missing data. This is the chart until the end of day. As you can see that long was the same head fake we saw in the 2000 tick chart. after that there was the correct short.

Well I don't really understand the formation of Tick Charts but this seems to be different X-Axis on each .... unless the tick x-axis is not time stamped and means something else

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I can see a match where the time chart x-axis time data matches the TICK chart X-Axis time.

There seems to be a lot more data in the Tick chart after the Time chart data, am I not right??

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I can see a match where the time chart x-axis time data matches the TICK chart X-Axis time.

There seems to be a lot more data in the Tick chart after the Time chart data, am I not right??

In my previous post I uploaded the time chart with the rest of the data that was missing. This is the correct match:

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In a tick chart time compresses or expands depending on the trading activity (low activity periods are contracted and high activity expanded).


Last edited by Malthus; November 9th, 2014 at 01:50 PM.
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In my previous post I uploaded the time chart with the rest of the data that was missing.

In a tick chart time compresses or expands depending on the trading activity (low activity periods are contracted and high activity expanded).

yes...I understand that but the time numbers of the tick chart go an hour or so beyond that of the Time chart. If anything I would expect the time chart to have its x-axis numbers exceed the tick chart....not the other way around.

The Time chart does not mention any data for after 19:55 but the Tick chart shows data for hours 20:00 and 21:00

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yes...I understand that but the time numbers of the tick chart go an hour or so beyond that of the Time chart. If anything I would expect the time chart to have its x-axis numbers exceed the tick chart....not the other way around.

The Time chart does not mention any data for after 19:55 but the Tick chart shows data for hours 20:00 and 21:00

Look again at the X-axis of the time chart (right half of the last picture I uploaded, remember, the LAST picture I uploaded, not the first one with the missing data).

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Malthus View Post
Look again at the X-axis of the time chart (right half of the last picture I uploaded, remember, the LAST picture I uploaded, not the first one with the missing data).

hahaha....Ok now I see that the time data matches...but in my post (22 hours ago) that I edited the chart that I was working with did not have that extra data.

But my conclusions in that post about the chart looking good but only a watch was correct. Now looking at this extended chart we see


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The dotted funny pink arrow shows the end of the data that I previous saw.... the BBwidth was flat as was the MACD with the price located above the 20intervalSMA

As I said then this looks good for a positive breakout but one should only treat this as a watch as things can change.

Within 20 mins or so the MACD now is declining fast.... the BBWidth is still flat... the price is now below the 20 intervalSMA ....this is looking bearish now but you still wait for the sudden rise in the BBWidth.... that is the "trigger" and it happens at approximately 20:20....NOW you know what is going on....it is a start of a bear run and I suppose a Short opportunity if you are into shorting.

The clear bottom is shown at 21:40...with the MACD/BBWidth pinch.... it is the end of THAT (not necessarily future) Bear run and if you were shorting you had a clear indication to cover that short.

So my advice of a "watch" back then was good and now that you show me the rest of that data you can see that following the BBWidth when it is flatlined and very low will pay off eventually.

Sorry for the confusion but it did result as a nice followup once I saw the additional data.

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the missing trigger indicator - Slow Stochastics


First I will explain what this indicator is and how I interpret its results (I don't use traditional ways at all with Slow Stochastics (SlowSto).

Then I will discuss its role in this chart combination..

As always I direct you to Stockcharts.com ChartSchool for basic information on this indicator and how it is traditionally interpreted.

Stochastic Oscillator [ChartSchool]

I don't like fast responding indicators... they are too whipsaw for me to interpret so I looked seriously at the Slow Stochastics (Slow Sto) as the one I would investigate.

Slow Sto is an oscillating indicator... it is calculated using the following formula


Quoting 
Fast Stochastic

%K = (Current Close - Lowest Low)/(Highest High - Lowest Low) * 100
%D = 3-day SMA of %K

Lowest Low = lowest low for the look-back period
Highest High = highest high for the look-back period
%K is multiplied by 100 to move the decimal point two places

......

Slow Stochastic Oscillator:

Slow %K = Fast %K smoothed with 3-period SMA
Slow %D = 3-period SMA of Slow %K

So the Close price minus the Lowest price of the last number of days (traditionally 14 days) and divided
by the Highest price in the last number of days (traditionally 14 days) minus the Lowest price of the last number of days (traditionally 14 days) and the result is multiplied by 100 to convert it to a percentage

So if Close = the lowest price the result = zero..... If the Close = the highest price the result = 100.

I don't like signal lines....they are meaningless to me....and I am happy to say I found a way not to disable the signal line...set the D% variable to 1 and the line disappears... another benefit for doing these posts for me.

The Slow Sto is smoothed with a 3daySMA (in a daily chart.)

So to compare the two results look at this chart


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The green circle does not show much difference but it is the red circle that I find MUCH better. The share price is rising but the standard 14 day lookback shows the Slow Sto to be less than 50 which is bearish....the 30day lookback shows the Slow Sto to be below 80 but not seriously so.... could this be the indicator I searched months for that would clue me into holding a stock while the price was between major movements???? Obviously you now know the answer is yes , but it took a fair bit of testing to confirm this.

I don't evaluate oscillating indicators like most people. I think they do it wrong frankly.... this includes Slow Stochastics, RSi and CCI.... people get hung up on Overbought and Oversold designations.

Consider the above chart again...just the Slow Sto part. (bottom chart)

1. when the Slow Sto is above 80 is that a Sell sign.... a lot would say so as it is "OVER BOUGHT"

Well if you sold on June 29 @ about $54.00 you would be pissed to watch the price climb til Aug 1 @ about $57.00 . You would have missed $4 of profit on that

2. When the Slow Sto is below 20 is that a Buy aftter all .... a lot would say so as it is "OVER SOLD"

Well if you bought on about Sept 27 @ about $54.00 would you have hung onto this stock til it rose out of the mud on Oct 15 @ about $52 ...you held it 3 weeks for a $2 loss

3. When the Slow Sto is 60 is it bullish or bearish?? How about 40 bullish or bearish??

the single number is meaningless...it is how it got there that is important. On April 24 Slow Sto of 60 is bullish.... On Sept 22 it is bearish....same number different result.

This is how I evaluate Oscillator indicators


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you trend the oscillator chart.... if it is buried in the mud (1) it is VERY BEARISH until it crawls above 20 (2) where it is still mildly bearish as it could return. As it approaches 50...especially if it winds around this level (3) the evaluation is neutral as it could go anywhere from there. If it continues to rise it gets more bullish (4) until it gets above 80 where it is very bullish (5) until it falls below 80 again (6) where it is still mildly bullish as it could well reverse back over 80....then we become neutral (7), bearish (8) then very bearish again at (1)

That is how I evaluate oscillators like Slow Sto, RSI and CCI....makes sense to me.

It is getting late and I have a big day tomorrow so I think I will stop here....next major post on this subject will be late Monday where I will discuss how this fits into the Trigger chart

Powerful stuff

Good Trading tomorrow....

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