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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #301 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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Underexposed View Post
-----------------------------------------------------
And finally to @deaddog....you now have my complete history....I know you love to analyze this kind of stuff. But this is NOT what my journal is for. If you are smart you will realize this and not probe me any more on the subject... you would be hijacking my journal purpose and I would be forced to put you on ignore...like I almost did a while ago....OK?

Wow. You're gonna ignore one of the few people taking interest in you.

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  #302 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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tturner86 View Post
Wow. You're gonna ignore one of the few people taking interest in you.

I can live with it...{shrug}

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  #303 (permalink)
 ssimonn 
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Thank you Underexposed for the great work.

I have been studying bollinger bands for a few years but with your added indicators it gives
me more insight.

I do have a question on the bollinger band width, you claim that when the macd and stochastic
are going one direction and the the bollinger moves opposite is a trigger? buy or sell, how about
when all three are running together same direction.
Thank you again

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  #304 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

thank you for your interest...I may have not been too clear of all the signals of the three indicators so let me do it for two scenarios.

#1 - the basic start to end of a Bullish breakout

There are variations on this but this will be the basic swing play....consider the following chart for this discussion:





When you find a situation when the bollies are steadily narrowing and the BBwith is lower than any time in the last 5-6 months....then you know three is a major movement is in the works....THAT IS ALL as far as the BBwidth is concerned. Any time after June 9...you can expect a breakout.

A Bull run will occur if the Slow Sto AND the MACD have a positive slope at the time of the breakout (triggered by the sudden positive slope of the BBWidth.

Now you look for clues as to what that direction might be...bull or bear?

It is my experience that the Slow Sto leads the way with a positive slope...and you see that in this example. The MACD generally follows...in this example it is slightly positive but that is ok...it is not a neg slope.

Now things can change but every thing up to July 7 says BULLISH (note: also just before the breakout that the price is above the 20daysma...another clue all is well)


On July 9 the breakout happens...the trigger is pulled

The rise in price is great, following the upper bollie...occassionally rising above but not so much that there is a seerious pullback.

The end-of-the-run occurs when the Slow Sto AND the macd AND the BBWidth change slope ...this would indicate the end of a swing play (there are other variations but we are talking swing play in this example)

Hints of the end coming....again Slow Sto leads the way especially when it falls below 80, followed by MACD changing slope and then the BBWidth...this occurs on July 28

So you would buy at about $2.60 and sell at about $3.60 for a gain of about $1.00/share in a couple of weeks. Of course you could have anticipated the top and made more or waited for a better signal for less.

Finally in this chart I draw your attention to what has happened now....in that circle

On the surface it looks like another bullish breakout....but is it?

the three indicators have reversed their direction....however....there was no lead up by the Slow Sto and MACD and look at how far above the upper Bollie the share price has risen...it is miles above the upper bollie....this is dangerous to paly and will pullback over the next few days.......look at the share price prior to the gapping....it was drifting strongly below the 20daySMA

This is NOT a bullish breakout (despite what pumpers may say - looks like a pump/dump to me)

#2 - the basic start to end of a Bearish breakout

This could be a shorting opportunity though I do not personally short stocks...consider the following chart





Again....look at the BBwidth....see it down at a level where breakouts occur....but what is happening to the Slow Sto from June 23 to July 10....it is falling ...not rising...the same with the MACD... not a strong fall but it is negative...look at the share price just before the BBbreakout....it is falling below the 20daySMA....all clues to a bear run

the trigger is pulled on July 14...the Slow Sto and MACD rapidly fall and the BBWidth rises fast...the end of this run as with the Bullish run, starts with the Slow Sto...its fall stops soon after the trigger is pulled...but it does not start a rise til Aug 11....the BBwidth reverses direction on Aug 1...but the MACD continues to fall until Aug 11-12.

The end of a bearish fall occurs when ALL three indicators reverse direction

So in this short you could have started it on July 14 at about $33.00 and covered the short on Aug 12 for $27.75 for a nice gain of $5.25

NOW LOOK at what is going on now in the circle

the BBWidth is back to trigger territory...the Slow Sto is rising...the MACD looks very good... looking bullish again but is it coming tomorrow??? probably not as the Slow Sto is not rising fast yet....but definitely a good prospect to watch....doncha think???

Conclusion

I hope this clarifies two scenarios...outright bull/bear swing....what about if you consider holding through a consolidation after a bull run??? what do you look for in this chart? Is a end to a bear run a true bottom or just a rest before further bottoms?

There are many more things that this chart is useful for...then you add other charts to help confirm what you see (my indicator consensus)

ALSO...if you want to test my approach...makes sure you use the same parameters for MACD and Slow Sto as I show in these charts...this is important.

Thanks for your interest.

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  #305 (permalink)
 Sazon 
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The above post is a nice candidate for a sticky in the quick summary of this thread. Thanks.

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  #306 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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ssimonn View Post
Thank you Underexposed for the great work.

I have been studying bollinger bands for a few years but with your added indicators it gives
me more insight.

I do have a question on the bollinger band width, you claim that when the macd and stochastic
are going one direction and the the bollinger moves opposite is a trigger? buy or sell, how about
when all three are running together same direction.
Thank you again

I hope that post clarified things for you

It is not the direction of the Bollinger band that is the trigger.....it is the distance between the upper and lower BBs that is the trigger. BBwidth is not exactly the distance between the upper and lower bollie....it is a "normalized" value depending on the 20daySMA.

that trigger is the sudden divergence of the bands and that is independent of the direction of the Bollie trend at the time....The Slow Sto and MACD slopes determine the bull/bear nature of the breakout at the trigger....If these indicators are not going in the same direction or if one of them is flatlined while the other is rising or falling...then whatever the price is doing, it will probably be a "head fake" and not a real breakout.

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  #307 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Sazon View Post
The above post is a nice candidate for a sticky in the quick summary of this thread. Thanks.

yes it probably would be nice but I have no option button to edit "Quick Summary" for this thread. It may be available to the elite members only I suppose. Feel free to do it if you are able and thanks again for your feedback.

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  #308 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Just a quick followup to the conclusions to #1 - the basic start to end of a Bullish breakout

you will note I said this was a false breakout for reasons given



as you can see the pullback has occurred and the three indicators that looked bullish are now blunted.

It usually is not good to make a decision on just one up-tick

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  #309 (permalink)
 Sazon 
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Underexposed View Post
yes it probably would be nice but I have no option button to edit "Quick Summary" for this thread. It may be available to the elite members only I suppose. Feel free to do it if you are able and thanks again for your feedback.

I have updated the quick summary. Please let me know if you would like any additional verbage placed in there and I'd be happy to do it.

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  #310 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Sazon View Post
I have updated the quick summary. Please let me know if you would like any additional verbage placed in there and I'd be happy to do it.

No I think that identifies it well calling it a Swing trade....this would save someone who is new to my journal from ploughing through all these pages to find it.

I think I will make a similar post where I describe how to identify a stock that has had a bullish or bearish breakout but there is more gas in the tank....in other words. if Bullish the stock price is still bullish but just resting before taking off again...or if it has a bearish fall...is it really over and a bottom found....or is it just resting before another fall.

If you want such a post....say so through giving this post a thank you

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  #311 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Before I make a post on long term Bullish evaluation I want to comment on Gold.




We had a major failure of 2 supports that should have been fairly solid but obviously weren't....they are now resistances...at about $1280....support is now at $1250.

the result here is that it affects my gold stock Lakeshore Gold





not serious yet a rebound in gold will save it...even if Gold goes sideways it will be ok....the stock is so linked to the commodity.

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  #312 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Underexposed View Post
I cannot embed in an edit.)

Yes you can, click edit, then click advanced. Then manage attachments.

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  #313 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

First of all, I will describe what I consider as a long hold. That being at least a 3 month hold. Anything else is a swing trade...a short swing is 1-4 weeks. A long swing is 1-3 months.

The same principles described here are also applicable to a long term swing.

But first before showing an example of a long term hold I should discuss some aspects of evaluating Bollinger Bands as well as a contrary look at Slow Stochastics (at least compared to what most books on the subject talk about)

Bollinger Band

The first consideration would be what happens when the price goes above the upper BBs

We sort of talked about this earlier when I discussed Bollinger Bands in general. The Bollies represents 2 standard deviation units from the 20daySMA, which means that 95% of the prices that make up the 20daySMA should lie within the upper/lower Bollies....in other words, a share price above the upper bollie does not belong here.

A lot depends on high high the closing value is....Just slightly above is not of concern....it is just bullish....the higher the outlying price the more of a concern it becomes.

The prices will rarely be above the upper bollies for 5 days and usually returns within 3 days. What happens on re-entry is important to watch.



See how each example here has the share price above the upper Bollie for 2-4 days...then the share price is pulled back into the bollie envelope...examples 1, 2, 3 are the best ways to do it....the price moves horizontal with a slight positive slope in a couple of cases (the best). Case 4 is the worst case...it entered on a down slope and not only that it passed the 20daySMA. Case 5 is full of indecision flat/up/down/flat

A second consideration would be what happens when the price re-enters the BB envelop

In most cases, at the end of a mini-run, the stock tends to migrate back to the 20daySMA ... you can see that often in this example. This is a natural movement at the end of a run...during this consolidation once it reaches the 20daySMA it twists around this average until the next bollie squeeze when the next major breakout will occur.

Slow Stochastics

Most TA books will tell you that

- above 80 (some say above 30) is "Over Bought" and this is a Sell signal.

- under 20 (some say under 30) is "Over Sold" and that this is a Buy signal.

- 50-80 is bullish while 20 to 50 is bearish.

I don't like this at all it does not make sense to me...to me everything depends on the direction that the share price is moving.

the following chart shows what I mean



A share price can stay over 80 for weeks or even months...why sell??? Similarly the price can be below 20 for the same time period....when would you buy in???

When the Slow Sto falls just below 80 it is still mildly bullish as that direction can easily turn around again...similarly when the Slow Sto rises above 20...it is still mildly bearish as it can easily fall back again.....You will note that for "3" and "7" I call this position both neutral....however 3 has a green line and 7 has a red line....so "3" is actually neutrally bullish, slightly bullish as it is rising through 50) and "7" is actually neutrally bearish, slightly bearish as it is falling through 50.


Conclusion

So these are things to think about when deciding to keep or get rid of a long term play. The next post will look at an example of a long term Bull run.

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  #314 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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Big Mike View Post
Yes you can, click edit, then click advanced. Then manage attachments.

Mike

Thanks Mike...always wondered what that option was for

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  #315 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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Underexposed View Post
Thanks Mike...always wondered what that option was for

It used to be the button marked 'Do not push this button'.

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  #316 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

hahaha.. @ratfink , yeah I am not in the habit of pressing buttons for fun.

As a salesman/sales manager selling scientific instruments, I always had the newest/coolest samples in my office but constantly I had a problem with someone playing with them and screwing them up. One day I found this sign....perfect and I pasted it above my samples...


Quoting 
ACHTUNG!
--------

Das machine is nicht fur gerfingerpoken und mittengrabben.
Ist easy schnappen der sprinngwerk, blowenfusen und
poppencorken mit spitzensparken.
Ist nicht fur gewerken by das Dummkopfen.
Das rubbernecken sightseeren keepen hands in das Pockets.
Relaxen und watch das blinkenlights...

The short week has been pretty neutral so far. We are slightly negative for the week but that is really due to gold prices falling {sigh}

Here is the status so far this week



Next post here really will be about how I use main trigger chart for long term trades. I have been giving this post a lot of thought and it is amazing how many little things that I keep thinking about. This is a good exercise for me.

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  #317 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Having a stock as a long term hold can result from two major reasons:

1. By design: You want to invest in a company because it has a good dividend and you are looking for a good return due to the dividends as well as capital gain.

A good example of this case is in my phantom portfolio....Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]

I am not going to repeat how a good dividend stock is selected here as I already have done so in a previous set of posts starting with this link and continuing:

Initial scan:



Final cut based on past performance:



Final cut after basic Fundamental analysis



Final cut after Technical analysis



When YOU PLAN to hold a stock for long term, you need to go through these steps to select the best candidate IMHO. You cannot just point to a stock and will it to be a long term stock

I offer this chart of Toronto Dominion Bank as a strong fundamental stock, good dividend strong performance as a multi-year hold

TD.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

2. By happy accident: You picked the right stock at the right time for a growth stock. You thought it might be a good swing trade when you bought it and you bought it at a point where is is rising from a strong support and there is a clear resistance ahead which becomes your swing target...

In this case you have set a target at a resistance point...and you hold your breath as it approaches that resistance ....I usually set an appropriate limit stop loss just in case to catch it if it falls from that resistance and save the profits...and lo & behold it passes....then you set your next target at the next resistance point and it makes it there and passes....so what started out as a short swing turns into a long swing and then a long term play.

It just becomes an "energizer bunny" going and going....often (but not too often) contrary to its fundamentals

My example for this kind of stock is Magna International [TSX:MG] a major automobile parts manufacturer in Canada.

I now check out stocks for their ability to make money....debt is a problem for me if it is unreasonable for its revenues...but basically it the company does not make money...I don't really want to invest in it....I am not saying it is not a good intra-day trade or a short swing of a few weeks.... But I am a long term trader...at least a long term swing trader so I like companies that MAKE MONEY....and if the revenues increase in time....so much the better.

I do relax this criteria for start-up O&G and mining companies (which I do like to put money into)....there I do like debt (no debt means they are not doing much) and though they are not earning money yet....they should show at least declining negative Net revenue with increasing Operating revenue...that is a criteria I use for that type of stock





You can see on an annual basis the Operating Revenue has been increasing since 2009 as well as the Net Revenue

let us pretend we are back in Nov of 2012 and we see this chart shaping up





We are a little miffed because we missed that opportunity back in August....but it did not get away on us and perhaps there is a second chance at this....the Slow Sto is getting Bullish (though it fell back a bit recently)...MACD is rising and the BBWidth is showing signs of rising...but is this worth it ???? Is this a risk worth taking???

This is the P&F chart I would be looking at then





Well I like this type of P&F chart VERY MUCH....See that Berlin wall of resistance the bulk of which is at the bottom of that box at $43.00....IF we can pass that resistance, what a great support that resistance becomes...(remember ceiling become floors when you pass through them). IF it passes what would be our initial target?....the next resistance level which is at $47ish...that may be serious but the one after that at $49.00 is weaker and they will be probably progressively weaker, at least based on history.

So what are we waiting for???? Jump in now!!!! really??? Where is the BUY signal...everything looks good in the first Magna chart but the BBWidth trigger has not been pulled and I never buy on the downside edge of a resistance...so we wait for the trigger....and my next post

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  #318 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Here our chart for the next several months





1. Ok ....our patience is rewarded and see the classic buy signal ...rising Slow Sto first....then the MACD and finally the BBwidth triggers...give it a day or so to make sure but actually it broke our huge resistance at $44.00 on Nov 28 so it is not much a leap of faith here.

2. You see the pullback on Dec1 but as you can see the resistance turned support and held... now we monitor and watch a beautiful rise for about 6 weeks .... hugging the upper bollie like this is about as bullish as it gets. That potential resistance at $47ish....smashed...though you can see it act as a support for a couple of days (Jan 19-21)

3.At the tip of the arrow that run gas run out of gas a little. When this happens, in consolidation the price tends toward the 20daySMA and you see this happen along the horizontal line (3). Should you be concerned by Jan 6 or 7???

Not really....look at the Slow Sto...still over 80 (bullish) the MACD is still positive...the BBwidth is falling not rising (not a trigger)...so we wait and hope that line at 3 holds and it won't cross the 20daySMA...the latter may or may not be bad...depends on the 3 indicators and this does not look bad...so we HOLD...you could put a limit stop-loss in but the signs don't seem bad.

4. Well the patience pays off There is a mini break out that phizziles

5. Again we rise above the upper BB...a pullback is expected...

6. Again consolidation and the price tends to the 20day SMA...it runs along it then rises til Mid Feb

7. Before (7) it looks bad....the price has fallen hard...the Slo Sto is fallen below 80, the MACD is plumbing lower lows but the BBwidth is basically flat...at this point we have made about $8 (about 20%)...we hope the (6) resistance holds (you might put a limit stop loss just below the price at the #6 line.

now at (7) we are rewarded yet again with a clear BUY signal...again it rises above the upper BB so a pullback to within the BB envelope.

8. The little run peaks on about March 20ish...see the small reversal of the Slow Sto and MACD and the BBwidth??? Do we sell???

Why? there is no panic here...for the next 2 weeks look at the Slow Sto...it remains over 80 (Bullish) the MACD is going sideways (neutral) and the BBwidth still is falling further...So it is still a hold

Conclusion

9. So here we are....we reached $59.00 for the second time in April....seems like a resistance here....then it drops to $57.00....OH! Oh!

Do we sell and take our profits??? Hint: what do the indicators say...and look at the support...what clues are given ?

Will discuss this in the next post....still with me?

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  #319 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well the last two days were pretty tough...I guess it was too much to ask for 4 good weeks in a row

Here is the end of week status report





I will have to do a review after I finish these posts on Long term trading.

The dive in the price of Gold has hurt me with Lakeshore gold and Kelso Technologies is dragging its heels.

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  #320 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

In the last post on this subject, I left you with this question


Underexposed View Post
Here our chart for the next several months

Conclusion

9. So here we are....we reached $59.00 for the second time in April....seems like a resistance here....then it drops to $57.00....OH! Oh!

Do we sell and take our profits??? Hint: what do the indicators say...and look at the support...what clues are given ?

Will discuss this in the next post....still with me?

I did it to get you to think about what it is I do when I analyze a stock chart.

Let us recap our long play to date

1. Entered the play on Nov 28/2012 at a price of approximately $45.00/share
2. here we are at April 18/2013 and the price is at $57.00

We have gained $12.00 in 4.5 months or 12/45*100 = about 26% which is not bad for a small long term play.

But do we sell at this point and look for another play???

let us take a closer look at that chart leading up to April 18





This has all the earmarks of a sale...look at the bear indications in that Blue rectangle

1. The candlesticks are far below the 20daySMA (dotted green line)
2. the share price has closed below the 50daySMA
3. the Slow Sto has been declining since April 12 and is now below 50...approaching bearish
4. The MACD has been declining since April 1 and 3 lower lows since mid March...bearish
5. the BBwidth show an uptick....the beginning of a bear run???

Based on this chart alone...there is not a court in the land that would condemn you from taking your profit RFN (right now)

You will note in my complete analysis I will use 2 more charts to see what they say and draw a conclusion from the consensus of the indicators.

So let us look at my "sentiment chart"





Not looking good here, is it?

1. The CMF has been declining steadily since April 1 and now is in the mud...Bearish
2. The RSI has been in decline for a similar time....not below 50 yet but as close as damn is to swearing .... Mildly bearish
3. Look at the DI+/-....very close to a bearish cross...not there yet but looks bad...Mildly bearish

Consensus from this chart is very close to full on bearish...

Let us look at what an Ichimoku chart has to say





Well there are some mixed messages here in this chart

1. The price is still above the green cloud...the edge of the green cloud may serve as a support...one could hope anyway...only mildly bearish here mainly due to the fall in share price...not the cloud.
2. I can never remember the Japanese names for these thin red/blue lines where the top arrow is pointing but they show bear when the red is above the blue and bull when blue is above the red....they are lying on top of each other...so I would call this neutral bearish right now, neutral because red lies on top of blue...bear because 2 days ago they were bullish.
3. The OnBal Volume is pretty neutral right now...very flat
4. The CCI is full on Bear

Consensus from this chart is mildly bearish.. to me...we are still above that cloud with a chance to recover but only a chance...everything else is bearish or neutral.

SO....The TA is over....it says SELL....doesn't it?

Well yes, but why has this stock gone down....bad news? the market? why is the price falling?

now I look to Fundamentals to get some idea of what is going on... TA is the main thrust of my judgement of stocks but more and more I appreciate some FA input.

First we look for negative news from before April 18





No news at all from April 18....the latest news was on March 28 ...the 2012 annual report

Let's look at that report ... to get it we go to the company website and download the 2012 Annual Report to Shareholders

https://www.magna.com/investors/financial-reports-public-filings]Financial Reports & Public Filings

Here is a screen shot of the reports operating highlights and outlook





Do you see anything bad here??? I don't. It is all good, including the outlook for the coming year. Maybe a couple of analysts wanted more for some reason .... but all looks well here.

What about market conditions....what was going on with the S&P/TSX Composite index at this time????





AH HAH!!! Here is the answer to the drop in Magna's share price. It is just following the drop in the S&P/TSX composite of which it is a member.

Ok....now we have our answer to the drop in price....it is not the fault of Magna itself...it is suffering collateral damage frfom the market itself

CONCLUSION

Fine....when I see this, I am not so willing to respond to the first uptick on the BBWidth.

I am willing to risk some loss of profit (at 26% gain so far I am "playing with the casino's money" so to speak)

I once said in a post to @Carrerain4 a few weeks ago .


Quoting 
By setting a stop-loss type order you are limiting the downside losses BUT NOT the upside gains.

This is the way I like to sell a stock....there is a finality to a straight Limit Sell order....but a Limit Stop-loss order give the share price a chance to reverse...while protecting us if the fall becomes serious....

Where will I set the Limit Stop-loss??? Well I will take a look at that Green cloud in the Ichimoku chart that I previously showed you.

I will set it just inside the Green cloud at $54.50 with the limit being $54.40 so the limit stop-loss oder will have the range of $54.40 - $54.50.

I will give myself a chance to make more money and not respond to just one BBwidth up-tick.

Post on this subject will be the last

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  #321 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...we set a Limit Stop-Loss at $54.40 to $54.50 and we were lucky and the stock price reversed immediately





then if you look at the BBWidth the Bollies really opened up by the end of April and the MACD and Slow Sto responded positively as well and the stock took off again.

For the next 4 months the share price climbed....as long as it stays above the 20daySMA and below the Upper Bollie....you just watch happily and count your money. There are a couple of buy signals along the way...do you see them...end of June and again end of July....you could use these times to add to your stock holding if you want.

But we hit a dip at the end of August...it has fallen below the 20daySMA....another decision...to sell or not to sell???

Is there a difference between this dip and the last one???

YES...there is...


The April18th situation had a rising BBWidth and falling MACD and Slow STO...a real potential sell signal if the BBwidth continued its rise.

The Aug 27th situation has all three indicators falling...this is not a sell signal....this is consolidation after a bullish rise.

this fall is sort of natural after a bullish rise....however it was rather an abrupt fall to the 20daySMA. Could it continue to fall? Yes of course, it would probably not be a precipitous fall (the BBwidth is too high) but it could be a gradual decline.

SO...TO PROTECT YOUR GAINS...and sacrificing some (after all you gained another 30% in 4 months) you look for a support line...the P&F chart would not help as this is unknown territory for that chart, but examination of this chart shows support at $77.40 - $77.50...so I will set a Limit Stop-Loss here, at this level and see if it recovers....and we are lucky again...it recovers without tripping the stop-loss...and we climb higher





You are faced with a potential sell situation again a couple of months later ... at the end of Nov.

It is a sell signal....but not the most robust one...but it is a sell signal....I would then haul out the other 2 charts for a complex analysis similar to what we did before.

Here they are








the evidence is conclusive...the consensus is BEAR...it is not the strongest sell signal but all indicators are mildly to full on bear.

Do we sell immediately??? I don't....remember...limit your losses but not your gains

where can we set a Limit Stop-loss level





Now this is a SELL signal after the analysis....and a strong one...even though it is taking place in a consolidation phase as ALL indicators were bearish

As you can see I can see 3 different potential supports in the P&F charts with a $4 difference from top to bottom...not much money compared to what we have made on this play so far.

So I would set the Limit Stop Loss order to the bottom support line to give it every chance to recover....that is $79.80 - 79.90 ( I set it slightly below the support just in case a spike goes slightly below the support.

Obviously looking at the Trigger chart (4 charts ago) the price did fall more...from $85.00 to $80 on a spike on mid Dec (never set your stop-loss exactly on a support...always just below

The energizer bunny continues today....See those nice buy signals ... a few spikes downward in price but nothing serious.


So let us summarize how I play a long term stock

1. A long term play can come from two sources....a) a swing play that won't quit. b) a planned long term play for a solid stock

2. A swing play has no particular FA analysis.

3. If you are planning to make a long term play then you do extensive searching for the right play....screening on the basis of FA looking for little or declining debt , rising Operating revenue and a positive increasing Net revenue. With a limited of stocks to choose from you then do a complete TA analysis and choose the best candidate.

4. First buy occurs on a BUY sign in the trigger chart. If there are multiple buy signals as the months go one you can use these to add to your holdings

I don't use stop-loss at the first buy...if you need to do that...you obviously have not done a good job picking a candidate...good buy signals are rarely head-fakes.

5. When monitoring your stock...

- as long as the stock is between the upper bollie and 20day SMA there is nothing to worry about.
- if the price rises above the upper bollie a little this is quite bullish....if it rises pretty high then expect a pullback to the bollie envelope and watch closely...if it rises really high in a spike then seriously consider selling on that spike, then put it on a watch to see what happens when it pulls back (in 3-5 days)...such stocks are more swing plays than long term. Long term plays are steady earners .... not 100% in a couple of weeks.

6. Use Limit Stop Loss orders when concerned about a fall in price...as you make more profit you can afford to be more generous in the setting of the level of the order...remember... limit losses not profits


Conclusion

This was and still is an excellent long term play (frankly I should have found it myself...a long time ago {sigh} ) but we cannot have eyes everywhere. If you look at my fantasy portfolio in this thread you will see Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD] that is an excellent long term play with dividends as well.

Well this has been an interesting exercise .... actually it helped me organize my thoughts. Every chart has its own set of circumstances. I have shown you some of the ways to look at a chart....give me another company to look at and their chart may reveal something new...it is like reading a mystery novel for me....assemble the proper clues and it is solved.

Thanks for your interest

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  #322 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well things are not going too well and I have been quite busy elsewhere and haven't watched this portfolio closely

here is the current status



I will devote the next couple of posts soon to evaluating these stocks.

I live in Calgary and we have had 2 snow storms in 3 days dumping 35cm (about a little more than a foot) of wet snow...{sigh} such is Calgary weather...it is not unusual and we will be nice and sunny again starting tomorrow (Indian Summers are great)...just a little depressing.

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  #323 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
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... (Indian Summers are great)...

We have one. No snow or depression either. August was rubbish though. No change there then.

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  #324 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


ratfink View Post
We have one. No snow or depression either. August was rubbish though. No change there then.

Actually we have had a great July/August...a couple of hard rainstorms with hail but most of that was to the north of us. Airdrie, a small city about 20-30km to the north, had hail stones the size of your fist which pummeled cars with many being written off due to broken windows and dented frame....many house windows and roofs damaged as well. We escaped that damage here though.

I am looking out the window at a clear sky, beautiful sun, melting snow and a temperature that is supposed to rise to +10c...life is worth living again after 3 rotten days. It should stay like this til mid-October when anything can happen.

Sometimes Calgary weather can feel like "8 months of winter and 4 months of tough sledding"

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  #325 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have been not paying enough attention to this portfolio as I should and it shows


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  #326 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well we have taken a bit of a beating in the last two weeks...and lost some profit...no...this account is NOT going to blow up in my face...it is just undergoing a correction. I don't like to lose profit...no one does but I don't get anal about it.

So let us look at the charts for this portfolio

Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]





This chart shows a share price in consolidation after July - mid August run...the BBwidth has fallen to a level where a new major movement will occur soon. The Bollies are pretty tight and the share price is well positioned for a bullish rise as it is consistently above the 20daySMA. The Slow Sto is very bullish...even in that significant drop in price in the first week of August, the Slow Sto remained above 50.... the MACD appears to have a lessened neg slope.

Conclusion: I expect a bullish breakout within 5-7 business days.


Enbridge Income Fund Holdings inc [TSX:ENF]





This is a similar chart to the one above. It has been in consolidation since mid August. The last candle had a bad dip but I do not think that serious as in consolidation the price tends to wind arounf the 20daySMA. The Slow STO is very bullish...the MACD is falling but if you look at the BBwidth it is at about 3.75...it must fall to around 2.5 or less before we can expect a major movement...

Conclusion: I expect a bullish breakout within 7-10 business days.


EnerCare Inc. [TSX:ECI]





This is an interesting chart...it has been traveling down a Bollie tunnel for a long time (4 weeks)...but you see the decline of the Slow Sto over the last 2 weeks...to below 50...the price has hardly wavered....but this is a warning of a potential problem as Slow Sto usually leads an event and MACD is already very neg slope.

However, the Slow Sto has a bit of a flat spot now and that is encouraging...but only a little bit.... The BBwidth has been ready to go at anytime.

Conclusion: I expect a breakout anytime now but there is a good chance it will fall. So I will place a LIMIT STOP-LOSS on this stock with a price range of $13.45 - $13.50


Chorus Aviation Inc [TSX:CHR/B]





Another stock in consolidation but note how the Slow Sto is decidedly plunging along with the MACD... the BBwidth is a bit high for a major movement but it is worrisome but not fatal at this point....

Conclusion: This one can go bad...but like the others...I will give it a chance to turn around. I will place a LIMIT STOP LOSS order with a range of $4.50 - $4.55


Algonquin Power and Utilities Corp [TSX:AQN]





Another consolidation chart... We were going nicely except for that gap...but it appears to have leveled off now. But the Slow Sto is encouraging too but not to be trusted... it will probably be 10-15 days before a major movement comes... maybe.

Conclusion: I believe it is prudent to put a LIMIT STOP-LOSS order on this stock with a range of $8.70 to $8.73


Kelso Technologies Inc [TSX:KLS]





I am pretty stubborn on this stock...I believe in the products of this company...in 20/20 hindsight I should have sold this stock in early august...but that fall stopped and I decided to wait out the consolidation period ending Sept 6 and it fell fast to where it now is.

I looked at its Financial reports to see what is going on





I don't see much wrong here....Operating revenues are pretty stable but costs are eating into its bottom line, and to me that is understandable the new manufacturing facility in Texas is still getting the kinks worked out so one would expect some increased costs.

Conclusion: I will give it one more chance for recovery. I will set a Limit Stop-loss at $5.60 to $5.65


LakeShore Gold Corp [TSX:LSG]


This is a pure gold play and gold is doing badly. Today starting at 7:00PM EST the price of gold has climbed $7 to $1234/oz. so today should be ok





I find it encouraging that the Slow Sto flattened at the point the BBWidth rose...but this could be just a rest...not a bottom.

I looked at how this stock performs against its peers






You can see that this stock out performs all of the including GoldCorp, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle and B2Gold Corp.

Conclusion: I am going to place a Limit Stop-LOSS here as well as Gold is just so damned unpredictable lately and could easily fall to $1200 or lower...or not {sigh} The LIMIT STOP-LOSS range will be $0.97 - $1.00


There you have it....I still have not made up my mind as to what to do with the $12,000 resting in cash but this is enough for now.

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  #327 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Here is the status as of Sept 17....




The Limit Stop-loss of Enercare Inc. [TSX:ECI] tripped later in the day it was applied. It was almost a saw-off as I did get 2 months of dividends.

Now I have about $19,000 to spend and I will have to find a new prospect or add to existing companies in this portfolio....I have not decided yet.

Lakeshore Gold is responding well since I put on the Stop-loss as the price of gold has stopped its slide...I will do an analysis on gold soon....and if I see it rise I will play it as a swing trade, add to my Lakeshore gold and keep the stop-loss as a trailing stop loss until it sells....It is about time I got more active on this stock....it is not a real long term investment...unless you believe Gold to be a good long term investment....right now gold does not look like such an investment

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  #328 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Lost a little ground but compared to the last 2 weeks things are getting better.




Part of the problem is that the Canadian market is not performing as well as the American ones. That is putting a drag on things.




As a result...I am not in a hurry to buy new stocks and may add to existing holdings...specifically [TSX:TD]

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  #329 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well here is the status of the portfolio at this point



We are still losing money though so far we have not sold another stock on the stop-loss.

the problem is that the TSX composite Index is in danger of a severe correction. As can be seen below it is resting on a support right now



If it falls below 15150 it will probably fall to 14800 or beyond.



Two doji in a row...indecision to the max...there is no BBwidth/MACD squeeze to suggest a bottom has been found, yet. The Slow Sto is ugly.



in the above chart the TSX has entered and is threatening to fall through the green cloud....the border below is a confirmation of the support...It always amazes me how ichimoku cloud borders serve as resistance/support levels . the rest of the chart is butt ugly...I have the feeling that support at 15150 will fail.

I have taken action in my real portfolios as I have done here. I have set limit stop loss bids on my holdings and proportionally the same thing has happened with to-date about 30-50% of my holdings now lie in cash. There is no use in buying stock until this correction stabilizes..I do not short stocks.

The one interesting stock I have is Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG] it seems to be contrary to the price fall of gold.



the price of gold is similar to the TSX in that it is poised to fall through yet another support but this stock is contrary to Gold and other gold stocks and is entering a BB tunnel.

if gold recovers even short term this stock will probably have a nice jump and I will add to my current holdings in a swing trade to grab back what I can.

Not a good time for Canadian Stocks in general it seems.

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  #330 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well things got better today Friday but they did not make up for the plummet the previous day ....as a result another stop loss tripped. , Chorus Aviation B

this portfolio echos my real portfolios...I am about 50% in cash and climbing as the Canadian market falls further. I like using the Limit Stop loss for the sales as it takes the emotion out of the sell and gives the stock a chance to rebound (though few are taking that chance)....I will not put this money back into the market until I see a sign this correction is over.



good trading...not so much fun right now though...but have lots of scratch for the rebound if it ever comes.

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  #331 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Nice job journaling @Underexposed.

I want to let you and all your readers know that in October futures.io (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by futures.io (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.

The contest thread is here:



That thread will be open for posting starting Wednesday, October 1. As the author of your journal, you need to make a post in that thread linking to your journal, and then ask users to press the "Thanks" button on that post if they want to vote for your journal to win the contest.

Members can vote for as many different journals as they want. Votes are cast in the Contest thread only, and only on the first post made by the author of the journal that contains a link to their journal. This is done so I can easily count the "Thanks Received" by author/journal, and award the three prizes.

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  #332 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Big Mike View Post
Nice job journaling @Underexposed.

I want to let you and all your readers know that in October futures.io (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by futures.io (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.


Mike

Thank you for your vote of confidence in my journal. I enjoy creating it and I have a few followers that I know of and many that are lurkers and that is fine.

My style of TA is pretty different I know and for the most part does not fit in with most of the trading that goes on here. I am happy to have found this site as the tolerance level of different approaches is very high and participants are quite respectful others.

I will not participate in your contest though. It is not that I am not competitive (I am too much that way in reality) but rather the prizes, were I somehow lucky enough to be in the top 3 journals, are something that I would not be able to use as I do not participate in that type of trading.

So I would ...with respect...not participate in your contest...but thank you for your comments.

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  #333 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I am going to try something that I have never done before but want to test here.

I believe that Kelso Technologies has reached a bottom and is starting to climb. I will show why I think so and then how I intend to use this for at least a swing trade (it would not hurt my feelings it is turned into a long term play





This support seems quite solid to me being the top of an "x" column and the bottom of 2 "o" columns since April at $5.45

there is a pretty strong resistance band from $6.15 to $6.25...there are many many resistance levels after that but it will be tough sledding at that point.





this chart shows the beginnings of what I call a MACD/BBwidth squeeze. See in the circle how the Slow Sto is starting a rise for the last 2 weeks and looks to be breaking over 20. The MACD and BBwidth are reversing direction hence the "squeeze"

Now this is not a done deal...it might be a rest...let's look at the other charts





Not the most bullish chart in the world but the RSI has changed direction and the DI +/- are converging ....not diverging....the CMF is at least stabilized...a bit.





nothing in this chart is particularly encouraging except the CCI is climbing out of the mud. The Ichimoku has a lot of work before it is remotely bullish

Conclusion

This is not a long term play at all...I cannot buy and forget it. But I want to try this as a swing play from $5.45 to $6.15.

I will buy this stock tomorrow at $5.56....unless it drops a bit but not below $5.45 in early morning trading. Once bought I will set a Limit stop-loss from $5.40 - $5.43 to protect myself in the event this rise was a head fake....if all goes as planned I will raise that stop-loss value trailing by about 15 cents until it sells. I think the BB's will tighten though in 7-10days and I may pull the trigger and sell if it looks to fall or add if it looks like it is going to take off.

I will get 1000 shares this way

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  #334 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well it was a good idea...but I never got a chance to really try it.



As you can see the stock opened at $5.62 and rapidly climbed from there to $5.82 then higher. If I entered at that point I would have been 2/3 of the way to my target of $6.15

Not worth the risk any more...I have always liked Kelso Technologies [TSX:KLS] as a long term play but that resistance band above $6.15 discourages me from re-entering at this point.

I don't chase stocks when I miss my entry...so will watch this stock and look for others to try a swing with.

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  #335 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Canadian stocks right now are not doing well in general. In early September I set Limit Stop-loss orders on most of my stocks in this fantasy portfolio and Enercare was one of them. I set the Stop-loss level too tight and it stopped out as can be seen from a record from the spreadsheet that I keep on the portfolio.





I only lost $174.98 on about $6880.00 play...it was a trivial loss all considered but at the time it made sence and using Limit stop-loss orders takes the emotion out of a sale.

I decided to revisit the stocks that I have sold since April and I believe I made a mistake on this one. There is only one other stock which I will talk about in the next post that I think would make a decent swing play.

But this is a long term play for ECI.TO, not only is there potential for long term gain but it also pays a nice $0.06/share/month dividend .... I had only 500 share but it did produce one dividend while I had the stock for $30.00 cutting that loss a bit.

Here is the new look at the charts I use





You can see where I bought the stock and where it was sold...that doji shadow was enough to trip the stop-loss. It was obviously set too tight. The circled area shows you what bothered me about the stock....the declining Slow Sto and MACD that (in my mind) was just waiting for the BBwidth trigger...but that trigger still has not been pulled.

So it was a mistake to sell...not a big one but a mistake none the less.





you can see in the circled area...what looked bearish on Sept 24 now has rebounded for the CMF, the RSI is neutral after declining and MORE IMPORTANT...the DI +/- which looked to be going bearr is now FULL on BULLISH

A very nice chart that one

Now the ICHIMOKU CHART





this chart has recovered as well...the Ichimoku chart shows the price rising above the clouds not falling to them., the CCI is bullish and the Onbal Vol is in recovery

Conclusion

I will make a larger purchase this time as I have more cash now. I will purchase 1000 shares tomorrow at the closing price today of $13.66. I will enter the order at the bell...I may get it a few cents cheaper if the price drops further.


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  #336 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well the Canadian market is still in a funk....Hopefully that latest order for Enercare will change things. Here is the state of the union now





the other stock I am looking at is one that I had before...it is an oil stock...a very junior stock at that on the Canadian Venture Exchange...it is [TSXV:MEI] I had bought it near the beginning of this journal.





you can see the MACD/BBwidth squeeze that I have talked about which shows the end of a fall in price...the MACD is now getting better but the Slow Sto has some work to do.

If I see a rise in the BBWidth and continued rise in Slow Sto and MACD....then I will make a swing trade on this stock


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  #337 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

My order for Enercare [TSX:ECI] filled in early morning trading at $13.66.... it has since fallen but expect a recovery

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  #338 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well as expected ECI.TO has recovered to a small gain overall.



this is not a breakout yet...the BBWidth is still very quiet....still wandering down that BB tunnel

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  #339 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well this is proving to be the longest string of negative weeks, since I started this diary and pretty much represents real life in the Canadian markets.

there is still an overall 2% gain and still 2 months to make the average 7% gain for the year...(actually 8 months since I started this in February)

It is gold that fixed me this week look at the charts below





the drop today brings us to an EXTREMELY IMPORTANT support line. It is pretty strong and one would hope for a pullback from this abyss. How important is this support? Just look at this chart.





this support goes all the way back to 2010....breaking this support would see the price of gold easily fall to about $1150/oz and if that fails...it is difficult to say how far it will freefall. $1000/oz will be a psychological support for what that is worth.




It affects me because I am still loyal to Lakeshore Gold Corp. [TSX:LSG] and it fell 11 cents. I have a limit Stop-loss on this stock at $0.97 and that will stay there...you have to take the emotion out of the sale and it is easy to get caught up in emotion given present circumstances.

My chart does not say sell at this point. The stock is in consolidation...I am amazed how well this stock is holding up. If Gold rises off this support with strength this stock should take off.

EnerCare [TSX:ECI] rebounded after yesterday and I think this contrary stock will perform well..

Here is the Status for this week....



head is still above water...but treading like mad


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  #340 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I made a good choice there so far let's look at my charts





this chart has now turned quite bullish. An ascending triple top breakout is about as good as it gets for P&F charts. Not only is it a triple top breakout but it is also the highest ever so we are headed into the stratosphere so we cannot predict a resistance...there is a broad band of support between $13.50 to $13.90 including a diagonal support line as I show in the chart





Now this is a really interesting chart. In the green circle you see the beginnings of a breakout...See the Slow Sto leading the way? This is normal and it is reaching for 80. The MACD has had a very mild positive slope until today ..now it is accelerated...and the BBwidth is finally turning up.

What is the difference between this rise and the one on Sept 1 , circled in pink. Notice on that one the Slow Sto was sloped negative, as was the MACD though mild and the BBwidth was flat...that rise was going nowhere.





this chart is all bullish....fairly mild at this point with the exception of the ADX DI +/- which is full on bull as the green/red lines are diverging nicely





I like the Ichimoku....the share pric has risen above the green cloud....look how the edge of that cloud acted as a support on Oct 7...it was right after I had purchased it on Oct 6... the Shadow of the candle touched the green cloud and bounced back...always amazes me at that. If you look in that circle at the thin red/blue lines you will see the blue one now above the red one

The CCI is full on Bull and the On Bal Vol is pretty neutral so far.

Conclusion

I like this stock....I like the dividend and the fact it looks bullish now.

I have $44,000 or so in cash.

I will buy with a LIMIT order an additional 1000 shares of ECI.to @ $13.90.... I will place the order immediately at the bell tomorrow...if the price falls at the bell I will grab a lower price...

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  #341 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well sure enough the price dropped at the opening on low volume as can be seen in the attached chart





It rose to stabilize at $13.84 so I placed my Limit Buy order at this level and there was about 2000 shares traded so I assume my order for 1000 shares would have filled at that level.

Now we wait to see that breakout continue ....fingers crossed. Some may wonder why I don't put in a stop-loss at this point. I don't usually do so on breakouts...I am pretty confident about the direction of this stock....I use limit stop losses usually when I want to sell and I give the price a chance to run while trailing a stop-loss as it does....or I use it when there has been a bad fall and I want out but will play a pullback while it lasts. Doing this takes the emotion out of selling....in this case I first of all believe in the direction but secondly I don't want a short term downward spike to sell my shares prematurely.

Good Trading

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  #342 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I still have a lot to learn when it comes to swing trades

I had a great idea for one with Kelso Technologies as can be seen in this post from last week



the problem was that it gapped at the opening and I could not get my order filled and it gapped 2/3 of the way to my target. Well that was too high for me to chase as you can see I thought it was too close to a massive resistance so the reward was not worth the risk.... so I thought





Here is the new chart....so much for not chasing....that massive resistance was jello and it smashed right through it. A significant derailment of hazardous goods in Saskatchewan has not hurt their cause in Canada (I know in the USA you have more problems that this is not on your radar).

You will note that I have still drawn a line red as it is a resistance...well the end of the day has not arrived and the price may fall below this line....if it stays above it then it will really be breached.





Well the Slow Sto/MACD/BBWidth show they are full on bullish

However, now note above that the last 3 candles are above the upper Bollinger band..... they won't stay there. There will be a pullback within the next day or two. July 28 shows what I am talking about.

I see a resistance at $7.00 a little clearer than in the P&F chart.

For long term I would like to see it breach that resistance....I think it will fall back if it is reached.





Well the CMF has improved but considering the rate of the price rise I am not all that impressed...Mildly bullish so far. The RSI is also mildly bullish but the ADX DI+/- is full on bullish as the green is bullishly diverging from the red





The Ichimoku looks great...no problem breaching the green cloud....so far any way ... but even if it pullback as expected...the clouds fall away so it should be fine and the thin blue line so far is outracing the red. The indicators below are bullish

Conclusion

I have always liked Kelso Technologies [TSX:KLS]. I like their product which is a major improvement on railway tanker safety which will be applied eventually to all tankers new and upgraded. This is necessary with the increase of moving oil by rail.

I believe that there is a pullback coming in the next coming days. If it breaches $7.00 it is a definite buy...until then I will wait....Wish I had chased it when I had the chance though. But now I don't buy approaching a resistance...especially in these market times.

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  #343 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well nice to see a turnaround...so far this week anyway.

Enercare Corp [TSX:ECI] certainly has been a good call...this is not a swing....this is long term...making about $700 in the week is a nice start

here is the status for this week so far.


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  #344 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well I was right in the last post on KLS. That red resistance held up and the price pulled back below the line



this chart is based on either closing intra-day values or EOD...at EOD it is cast in concrete.

You can see how you must look for a confirmation before you jump the gun. If I depended only on a P&F chart I would have lost on the pullback.




You also see the warning given by the price being above the upper Bollie....it is still there so I expect a further pullback until it gains the inside of the BB envelope. Once inside the envelope it may catch a second wind and keep climbing...travel sideways as a consolidation phase or drift in a negative consolidation.

I think I have covered the bases so what does this mean??? If you hold the stock I would keep holding or set a Limit stop loss to protect profits if you were luckier than I and caught the stock before the rise. Otherwise it is a watch.... I still like breaching $7.00 before buying back in but now this resistance at $6.70 may cause me to buy back in if it were breached.... but I fully expect $6.70 to hold for now and a further pullback to come.

You don't see this use of Bollinger bands in any published document to my knowledge. I discovered this myself after years of researching charts. It is a VERY useful tool...I share it with you - the reader of this journal

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  #345 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

It is roughly 1/2 way through the trading day and here is the chart for KLS





As predicted the share price is now on the lower BB and trying to breach that $6.70 resistance. But will it be successful on this try or fall slowly in the coming days?

You cannot trust one chart completely on this...so far this chart looks fine...we are back in the BB fold but struggling to rise above it again....the MACD/SlowSto and BBWidth looks fine. I would not worry about the curl of the Slow Sto at this point...it is embedded in the bullish region....you don't ignore that curl but by itself it does not mean much....yet.

Looking at the upper Bollie itself though...despite the fact the BBWidth is so far a powerful rise I see a slight change in slope to the upper bollie itself. Again...nothing to pull the plug on but if I had this stock (and I didn't get it Damn!) I would make sure that Limit Stop-loss probably like $6.40 to $6.45 was in place.

But you need more than just one chart...you need a consensus ere is my sentiment chart





warning signs are....

the CMF is falling back into the mud while the price rises

The ADX DI+/- has a slight convergence for the first time in this run

the RSI has gone flat

Now the Ichimoku chart



See how the upper edge of the green cloud is acting as a support which was tested today
See the down tick in the On bal Vol
the CCI is still fine.

Conclusion

It is on watch still and if I owned it the stop limit loss would be set as a precaution. (see above)

Individually these indicators don't mean much right now....but they are almost all indicating some caution. It is this consensus that twigs you to the fact that maybe....maybe this run is over for now.

the time for long term money comes after it really passes that resistance at $6.70....not before. If you already owned the stock passing $6.70 would be a sign to add more stock...while accepting that it may be over otherwise.

Using a limit stop loss takes the emotion out of the sale if it happens.

Good trading

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  #346 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well so much for a positive week...things were going great until this last 200 point drop for the TSX today.

Sept/Oct is not a good period in general for stock...I hope it turns around soon...not much fun right now




my two stocks of late are performing reasonably as expected though today was a downer for ECI.to with a loss of most of the gains for the week. Whereas KLS.TO after a massive drop recovered to a a mere $0.05 loss...Still stuck below that $6.70 resistance...the recover from the $0.30 drop though is hopeful.

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  #347 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well it does not have the feeling of the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 yet but man it certainly is not fun and could get worse.

Here is the Point and Figure chart for the TSE Composite Index





As you can see the index is dropping like a stone in water...places where I would think of as supports have been breezed by like falling through paper. The dotted green lines are such weak supports in the future...I don't believe they will stop this train wreck.

13500 looks like it might slow the decent but that is only said with fingers crossed. The really strong support comes between 12800 - 12950...Yikes!!!!

look at this "trigger chart"





You see how clear the fall started at the narrow BB squeeze in the upper circle. The dotted green line should have been a solid support but other than a brief 2 day hiccup that support fell easily

The Slow Sto is as low as it can go....zero is zero.

the MACD and BBwidth showed a little lessening in their respective slopes but look at the tips now....they are showing an even steeper slope .... this indicates to me the bottom to this fall is a long ways away....13500 or the lower band of support are not number picked out of the air....they are probably reality.

If you look back at my August posts you will see how I was commenting on poor performance based on the stocks I hold in this portfolio and in real life.... you can see the portends of bad things in the sharp decline in the Slow Sto at the end of August...the steepness of this decline means it was not going to be a slight correction





this is a very bear chart.... the CMF is a saw toothed decline showing no end....
the RSI has dropped from mildly bullish to full-on bear in about 5 weeks and no signs of change
the ADX DI+/- is diverging bearishly and the ADX (black line) shows this is a strong trend





What can I say....it is obvious that this is a BUTT-Ugly chart....everything is BEAR....no redemption hinted yet.


Conclusion

I learned a lesson for the 2008-2009 crash. Back then I did not sell hardly any stock. I held on for grim death until the bleeding stopped. This year I have liquidated 75% of my holdings in real life and up to recently I was almost there in this fantasy portfolio.

But this is a place to try things and so I bought ECI.TO and also took a shot at KLS.TO.

Whereas in 2008 - 2009 I lost 45% of my holdings...in both my real and fantasy portfolios I am still a couple of % into the BLACK.

Here I will experiment with more swing trades here...but in reality I am hunkering down , waiting for this storm to end.

There should be huge opportunities after this severe correction ends.

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  #348 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

another bad day on the Canadian market





See how the index value fell to 14000 then rose back up to about 14100....it smashed that first weak support I showed in the P&F chart in the past post....but stopped at the second one at 14000...So I guess that establishes the 14000 level support as being a bit stronger.

Not fun in Canadian markets compared to those in the USA. Then again the USA dollar is gaining strength now and more which may make them feel better but that will make their goods (the few that they actually manufacture any more) more expensive and our exports of raw materials more profitable as they are priced in $US.

Here is a table of Capped TSX sub-indices

Index....................................................................... Symbol ..... Last .............. Chg ...... % Chg

S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ........................ ^T00C ...... 16,330.18 ... -153.26 .... -0.93
S&P/TSX 60 Capped Index .................................... ^TX6C ............ 901.62 ....... -8.38 .... -0.92
S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index .. ^TTCD ............ 146.60 ....... -1.44 .... -0.97
S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index ............ ^TTCS ............ 364.74 ....... -2.64 .... -0.72
S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index ^TTMN ............ 716.01 ........ 7.06 ..... 1.00
S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index .............................. ^TTEN ............ 252.23 ....... -8.26 .... -3.17
S&P/TSX Capped Financial Index ............................ ^TTFS ............ 244.84 ....... -1.84 .... -0.75
S&P/TSX Capped Health Care Index ....................... ^TTHC ............. 92.62 ....... -0.47 .... -0.50
S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index ......................... ^TTIN ............ 180.34 ....... -0.04 .... -0.02
S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index .... ^TTTK .............. 39.82 ....... -0.09 .... -0.23
S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index ............................ ^TTMT ........... 225.91 ........ 5.30 ..... 2.40
S&P/TSX Capped Real Estate Index ........................ ^TTRE ............ 258.93 ........ 1.23 ..... 0.48
S&P/TSX Capped Telecommunication Services Index ^TTTS ............ 118.93 ....... -0.28 .... -0.23
S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index .............................. ^TTUT ............ 214.19 ........ 0.17 ..... 0.08
S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index .................................... ^RTRE ........... 159.60 ........ 0.35 ..... 0.22

So far it looks like Metals, Utilities and Real Estate look better...but that would take more investigation to be sure

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  #349 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I reproduce this P&F chart on the TSX just to show the stepping down through week supports





and today October 15 we are falling through another level....though it was labeled a weak support on the chart







We are now below that 14000 support and down to 13800 or so.....

Another almost 200 point loss...this is becoming a daily habit....we are no longer looking at a correction...it is rapidly becoming a crash.

The next support at 13500 SHOULD be a more substantial one and may halt the fall. We will know soon as at the rate this thing is falling this support should be tested before the week is out....

So far these weak supports last only a day of trading....the way this thing is falling It would not surprise me if it fell down to what I think is rock bottom





you can see from this chart that the TSX is below the lower Bollie and there is no hit of a reversal of the MACD or BBwidth.

Gold is rising slowly but {shrug} who knows what that means....

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  #350 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

{Sigh} another day another 150+ drop in the TSE....nothing is working....I am still in the black...hanging on with bloody fingernails




At this point there is nothing much to do but wait this out.

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  #351 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well 2 days later things have reversed....now instead of being only $400+ in the black I am now $3000+ to the good.




I learned a long while ago if you pick solid stocks in the first case then they won't go to wallpaper on you.

I am not so naive to think that crisis over...all is well. One up tick does not change a trend so...I will still be on the fence with the cash and won't buy anything more until things sort themselves out.



This chart shows Gold backing away from the abyss at $1180 but it is currently stumbling at passing $1250...no direction there for sure yet.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Yeah I have been wondering about that...I made a nice 2 day gain on Thursday/Friday...not enough to wipe out all the profit losses of the last 6 weeks but breathing room nonetheless.

So let us look at the S&P/TSX Composite index now.





I find it interesting that the two previous weak supports in dotted green lines may be now serving as resistance/supports NOW...they are not perfect .... you have to allow a little slop in those predictions of support/resistance , especially when they are weak. But right now there is a framework there to consider

I have penciled in a new resistance band that is possible if the rise keeps on going between 14400 - 14550... that may seem to be a broad guess but the volatility of this index is such that it could pass through this in a day if we are on a role...I doubt it will though...I would be happy if it got stuck in the middle for now





Now this chart is FINALLY showing some hope for the future. I showed on the chart that a stock/index that stays below the lower Bollie only a short time (3-5 days normally) before reentering the Bollie envelope.

Does that mean all is well when it does??? Not necessarily so....... you have to consult the index charts below.

you can see on Sept 22 when this happened there was no change to the Slow Sto/MACD/BBwidth.... the first two still had declining slopes and the latter's rise was unbroken.

This indicates the fall was simply resting.

Now look at current Slow Sto/MACD/BBwidth trends.... while not 100% established yet the Slow Sto looks to be breaking through 20 soon....the MACD has flatlined and if it rises this will confirm a bottom ....the BBwidth has already showed a solid change of direction.

So... this is the bottom ? Crisis is over?............ not really.....

What usually happens when a run is over (applies to a bullish run too) is that the values will tend to return to the 20daySMA ... once it arrives there...the values will oscillate around the 20daySMA until the BBwidth falls to a level where normal breakouts occur (ie. the Bollies get tight again)... that would be a BBwidth value between 1-3.

Now that would be the normal procedure... but it could happen that the fall catches a second wind and this could be only a rest.... with the MACD only flatlined....that is a distinct possibility.

So this could be just a rest





In this chart things are better but only marginally so.... the CMF is still bearish by being stuck in that mud. The RSI is still mildly bearish as it could easily dive back in the mud again (but it looks a lot better than a couple of days ago. The DI+/- is only mildly bearish as there is a mild convergence between the red and green lines.





This chart is still bearish on all counts. Despite the rise of late the Ichimoku thin red/blue lines are not converging... at least they have flatlined. The OnBal Vol is still bearish as well as the CCI.

Conclusion

the consensus is decidedly bearish at this point. We may drift to the 20daySMA and at this point I would willingly take that.... worse case is we are just resting before further declines....I don't think this will happen...I think we will hopefully drift sideways hopefully with a slight positive slope..... the 20DaySMA well come to us...not the reverse.

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  #353 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have said on occasion that I work on small research projects regarding Stock TA.

I am currently fine tuning a process for updating a WATCH list as well as all of my holdings and create a new type of chart...I have not seen this type of chart used anywhere else so maybe I have invented something.

I use Excel for data collection and processing and currently can gather the data and produce this chart in 2-3 seconds. I have it working for only a single stock currently but know how to change the macro to cycle through multi-stock tickers and fill their appropriate worksheets...eventually having a summary page of everything so I can see it all at a glance.

Here is a sample of my chart that I get for Toronto Dominion Bank. Each arrow is 10 days of data so you can see the values at different points in time. The circle simply indicates the position of the previous last arrow so you know how much the data changed.





Before you ask...no I will not go into details as to how I do this...I hope you understand. But I will entertain questions/comments on its usefulness and if you want a chart for a specific stock I would be happy to do it.

Kind of fun doing this....I have more ideas on what to do with this data.... giving me flashbacks to my programing days of 10-12 years ago.


EDIT: That stock symbol should have been [TSX:TD].... stupid finger/brain fart

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  #354 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

hahahaha...well clearly my new type of chart is underwhelming everyone, from this response

I have never been on a website where there was so many lurkers on my threads.

But that is ok...it makes sense to me

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  #355 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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hahahaha...well clearly my new type of chart is underwhelming everyone, from this response

I have never been on a website where there was so many lurkers on my threads.

But that is ok...it makes sense to me

Talk more about US equities

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  #356 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Big Mike View Post
Talk more about US equities

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

really???....that is not the name of my Journal.

My comment was more on the type of chart I have developed.... I am not complaining about the number of readers...from the looks of it I get almost 50-70 lurkers per day and I would guess most are Canadians or interested in Canadian stocks or love the style of my prose or whatever.

I talk about American stocks on other threads where it is more appropriate ... and where the silence is equally deafening.

Anyway, I really like the look of the chart I have developed and am steadily improving the macro to the point I will be able to update about 30 stocks or more in about a minute. I have not been able to test the limits of EXCEL in this regard...but I will be able to in another week or so....it is a part time thing and I am having to re-educate myself in VBA

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Well I still have a ways to go until this new charting method in Excel becomes automated for updating a multitude of charts simultaneously. My VBA is a bit rusty and I am having to relearn a lot of it.

However, for single stock analysis it is working fine. I have made a minor change or two...mostly in formatting for the data for the chart in a generic way ...paving the way for the multi charts.

But in the mean time, I thought I would show my "trigger" chart and the new chart that I have developed to show you how it pans out.

Lakeshore Gold





The circle at the end of the arrows shows the last update position. This allows you to see how much has changed from one update to another.

the latest data is yesterday Oct 20.....the main trigger chart shows a breakout possibility and does not look too bad. HOWEVER, My new chart suggest bad things to come and advises I apply a Stop Limit Loss order

And I will do so.... setting the Limit Stop Loss from $0.99 - 0.95



Enbridge Income Fund





This is a stock that I should have sold and Sept 18 in the new chart is when I shold of at least set a Limit Stop Loss. If I had updated it last Friday It would have said to probably set that Stop Loss sooner...

But this is now not back then and I did not have this chart developed at that time....it is now in the Falling Star zone and rising so I will leave well enough alone for now.

Toronto Dominion Bank




The label show have been Sept 18/14 not Sept 17

I like how it gave the warning to set a Limit Stop Loss before it actually fell. But like ENF.TO....that was then and this is now...it looks like it will get better.....for now I will leave it alone


EnerCare Inc




I love this....it gave me a indication to buy on Oct 8...just before the jump in price....it looked like a head fake when it fell back but while the Slow Sto fell and the MACD looked sad.....the BBWidth was flatlined and sure enough it caught fire

I should make another buy on this one perhaps...I will think about it for now.


So I am cautiously optimistic on this new chart idea of mine.

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  #358 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have considered EnerCare Inc [TSX:ECI] because of the last post and the chart there and I will show you the chart below.





The stock price is above the upper Bollie for the previous 2 days so one expects that the price will pull back into the BB envelope in the next 1-3 days. In the new chart I created the circle highlighting the last data point is firmly in the bullish quadrant.

Now here is today's offering of the new chart




(Note to self.... add the date so we can tell which date this chart represents)

You can see by comparing the two charts that the Trend has maintained roughly the same height, whereas the Interest has moved further to the right. So we are still in the bullish quadrant but with higher interest.

Now don't be concerned about the fact that the rest of the chart is not exactly the same. These arrow points represent data points that are 7 business days apart. So when you add a new data point you get a whole new chart...the important ones of course are the latest and the movement of them but the others show the route the stock took to get there.

IE: length of time it has been viewed as bullish, has it migrated between quadrants, degree of bull/bear...those are just some thoughts...I am sure I will see more as I examine more charts.





So today you see the price has pulled back into the BB envelope as expected but there is little change to the Slow Sto/MACD and BBWidth

On looking at an intraday chart I see the price has fallen further to about $14.55

I shall now enter a LIMIT BUY for 500 Shares of ECI.TO at $14.50

We shall see how this turns out.

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  #359 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I was on the mark....actually it fell to $14.45 but rebounded to $14.56.




Given the turmoil in Ottawa with the shootings on Parliament Hill it is understandable that the markets would be shaky today. I was well over 1.25% for the last two days but that got knocked back about to 0.34%.

Hopefully this event is a "one of" and we get back to normal tomorrow.

Here is the current status for the portfolio.




It will be interesting to see if I make more money on Enercare

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  #360 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

This seems like an appropriate place to end this journal.

This week and the past one shows a comeback which hopefully would continue...here is the final status of this fantasy portfolio.





If I have accomplished one thing it is to show that it is definitely possible to take a sum of money in an account and LONG TERM trade for a living.

If you are a newbie in trading consider long term trading over day trading... it is not necessarily a way to instant riches... but if it done properly and you choose your stocks wisely... Choosing the good and avoiding the bad and BUTT ugly. In my almost 11 years of trading I have never blown through an account and I lived off the returns of my accounts through the 2008-2009 financial crisis...you learn a lot through such an experience. I can leave my accounts for months at a time and not worry about losing all my investments...it gives you peace of mind IF you learn how to do it properly, that is. It makes me smile to see how paranoid some intra-day traders are about leaving their money in overnight...let alone for a month or more... they are simply gambling IMHO... not investing.

If you read this journal from top to bottom, you will get a feeling as to how I choose stocks, how to look at basic fundamentals, why I like solid dividend paying stocks over the next rocket performers.

Learn how to use Technical Analysis, I have tried to show you what I do to technically evaluate stocks. Is my way the only way....Hell no, there are lots of ways to skin that cat. But I do have a method and I HAVE NOT kept what I do in this regard a secret. IF there had been questions here regarding TA and I I use it, you would have learned a lot more.

I thrive on such interplay, I learn as much from such questions as you would from the answers I give. It is through such interaction on other websites that I have arrived at the TA I use today. The questions from others caused me to revisit beliefs that I long had...sometimes they were reinforced as I reviewed them...often they caused me to rethink what I was doing and I became stronger as a chartist and hence my questioner would benefit as well.

But there was no questions from you, the lurker.

It is like talking to the wall. I have MAYBE 5 people who even acknowledged with a thank you now and then over 9 months... That is nice from them but not satisfying to me.

So read the journal if you are interested...but I don't think many here are interested. I am very much a minority here on this site. I have invested almost 9 months here. One should feel they belong over that time period...But I don't

So those that have read this journal....thank you...it would have been nicer if you spoke up...but thanks for at least reading here.

But it is time to move on.

Good Trading

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  #361 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Hi @Underexposed,

You have 562 posts and 363 thanks received, that's actually a very strong number and it means your posts are well received.

Sorry you didn't get more discussion.

Mike

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  #362 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I guess I I might have made a mistake about viewership. I have been away from this site for a week now but a check if the number of views shows almost a 10% increase over that period.

I returned here to update the status of the portfolio I started here back in Feb/14. The only significant change has been that the stop-loss on Lakeshore gold finally tripped and that stock sold. But without that stock, turned boat anchor I made about a 1% gain this last week.

Gold is falling again...headed for $1000/oz IMHO....Lakeshore gold [TSX:LSG] as well as Sandstrom Gold [TSX:SSL] are tied at the hip to this commodity...I have placed both on a watchlist along with gold itself.

here is the update





In previous posts I said I was working on a spread sheet for which I download and analyze financial data. It is working out really well now.

this is a screen shot of Toronto Dominion Bank. It shows the quadrant chart that I have developed as well as elements of my "trigger chart"... the beauty of this worksheet is that I have complete control in setting up alerts the way I want them...I am at the stage of implementing those procedures now. So far on one spreadsheet I can update 25 worksheets of stocks in 2 minutes....I have not found the limit yet on the number of worksheets I can use....eventually I will have different workbooks for different watch lists....this is very exciting for me and something I wanted to do for years...I just found the key recently.



for comparison here is a sharpchart of TD.to....as you can see the Slow Sto , MACD and BBwidth in my version are pretty close in formation....good enough to make decisions on.




I won't post here regularly. I will answer questions periodically when asked in this journal. Seeing the readership of this journal after I left makes me feel good. I will regularly post every Friday for updates.

Thank you for reading....I find I do need this journal.

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  #363 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

things are moving well with more modifications to the new chart of mine.

I have about $30,000.00 in cash available in my fantasy account

Here are my support charts





Normally I would not pull the trigger and buy until I saw a sharp upturn to the BBwidth but looking at the sharp chart that looks to be possible soon

You will note that in my quadrant chart this stock is bullish for 3 data points, this combined with the trigger setup suggests I buy in now

Effective Monday Nov 3 at the bell I will try to Buy 500 shares of Badger Daylighting [TSX:BAD] @ $27.70/share.

we shall see what happens as a result of this purchase.

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  #364 (permalink)
 matevisky 
Budapest, Hungary
 
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Dear @Underexposed ,

This is kind of thread what keeps me reminding:
- There is a much higher level of trading, what I am right now trying to do
- There is always have a bigger picture, bigger player, bigger perspective
- Great thing to know why the market is moves big

But also because of the topic, and because of a level of your knowing about this topic, it is super hard to create any comment, only to check it what you are doing.

I really hope that I will have a chance some year later to better understand your thread, till that time, I am just checking here regularly, amezed the chart and a level of detail what you are using, and wishing myself to be here one day! Please keep it up, if it is every friday, than it is, if it is every month, than it is... but please continue!

Máté
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  #365 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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that's a very innovative chart type. i wish you success with it. i wonder if you can adapt to other instruments such as options.

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  #366 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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matevisky View Post
Dear @Underexposed ,

But also because of the topic, and because of a level of your knowing about this topic, it is super hard to create any comment, only to check it what you are doing.

I really hope that I will have a chance some year later to better understand your thread, till that time

First of all, thanks for your comment....it is really appreciated

Secondly, it may look like this is hard to understand but it really isn't once you see how the charts can be used. That is why questions are vital to learning. It too me 10 years to arrive at where I am today with charts but that is because I was making my own interpretations on normal charts. I would try things and some would work and some would fail. I would build upon the successes and set the failures aside....I never throw them away 100% since there was a reason why I tried that approach in the first place and somethings I would revisit them to see if there was something I could salvage.

Now... when I look at a chart, important things stand out for me and it only takes a minute or so to come to a decision....whereas when I started I would spend 20-30 mins looking for clues to the mystery of a particular chart. Newbies to looking at charts the way I do would be also looking at charts this way...

Thirdly, your misunderstanding of what I do is NOT YOUR FAULT. It is my fault, as I am usually only highlighting the "important" features that I see in a chart. I am not talking about everything.

This is why questions are important from the reader. A question from a reader is never a dumb question on charting...that question is often in the mid of other readers. Sometimes I miss things in my quick analysis, sometimes the viewer sees something that I have never thought of before. In the past, this is how I progressed in my learning to read charts. People asked questions that sometimes cause me to re-think the way I do things.

That is why I have been frustrated here often....I love charting questions.


jackbravo View Post
that's a very innovative chart type. i wish you success with it. i wonder if you can adapt to other instruments such as options.

I am very excited about using this Quadrant chart. I am keeping how it is constructed under wraps now but I will talk a lot about how I intend to use it and your question is helpful in that regard

This is a swing/long term chart for stocks. The quadrant chart has about 18 months of historical data...I suppose it could be 18 or so hours of minute open/high/low/close/volume but I don't have access to such data. I get my info from Yahoo Financial .

Also since I don't do Options perhaps the chart as it exists could be useful...but you would have to explain what you are looking for.

Let me explain how I am using the charts I showed in the last post

here are the charts for the previous post I made





1. this shows the quadrant chart for the stock or index

2. this is nothing more than a smoothed version of my "trigger chart" as I show below.

3. This is where I will be adding alerts. If you have been following my past posts you will know that I have "rules" with respect to predicting the movement of a share price. Now that I have the raw data I can hard code those rules and create a buy/hold/sell/watch system that I "totally understand" there are many idiot light systems out there but they won't tell you anything that makes those lights go on....I will know exactly what is going on..... this is still a work in progress.




Now....IS THIS A DECISION MAKING SYSTEM????

Not at all....all final decisions will be made on the basis of a normal complete TA that I normally do.

But the trick is....that one the worst times it takes me only 2 minutes to download and process the data for 12 different stocks (I still don't know the limits on Excel on how many pages of stocks I can have). I then present a summary page like the one you see below



This is a summary of indices of the Toronto Stock Exchange and where historical data does not exist I use the numbers of ETFs that are based on the indices.

At a glance, I can see the ones that are currently bullish. I would then have workbooks that are built around a particular index with the stocks associated with that index with a similar summary page to see which stocks are performing.

I can ignore those stocks until I see its sector performing.

The columns between the charts will be used to display the alerts that I will generate on the main sheet.

Using this approach I can watch hundreds of stocks and indices....something that was too tiresome for me in the past.


Anyway, that is the approach and aims I have for this quadrant analysis....it is a watch tool on a mega scale


Good Trading

PS: I did get my Badger Daylight [TSX:BAD] at $27.70 this morning...it is in my fantasy portfolio and my real portfolio as well now at that price.....my first pick on that basis. Badger is a great company, I have owned them in the past....thay have a fleet of vacuum trucks, very useful in the oil patch as well as city use.

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  #367 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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I'm sure you covered this but I can't remember. Are these trades cash or sim?

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Big Mike View Post
I'm sure you covered this but I can't remember. Are these trades cash or sim?

Sent from my phone

I NEVER use simulators...simulators are for beginners and IMHO useless as far as learning how to trade.

Why test or trade in a Simulator mode when you have real data to work with??

As you saw in the post I made on Sunday, I announced why I was putting in a bid for Badgerdaylighting and at what price I would set my limit bid at the bell

Here is the 5 minute chart for today and Friday




As you see the share price opened at $27.85 climbed into the $27.90's before it came down to $27.70 and passed through that level to $28.65 in the first hour....in the next 2 hours it bounced on or around $27.70 several times

I consider in this phantom portfolio that I have had my bid filled if the share price passes at leasr once in the day...in this case it did it several times.

In fact, in reality Some of those transactions were my real transactions as in truth I made some small purchases at that level.

As further proof, I use current charts at the time I make decisions and Sharpcharts and Bigcharts do not do any charts on any simulations to my knowledge.

I shun simulations as they are only based on pseudo-reality IMHO...you cannot devise a stock investment approach on their basis.

The new chart I am working on IS based on real EOD data....not sim

Thanks for asking as I guess many would have that question.

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  #369 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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OK, so cash yes?

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  #370 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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Underexposed View Post
I well set up a spreadsheet where I will allocate myself $100,000 worth of play money. It is not an overly complicated spreadsheet but for the newbie it might give you an idea of how to create one for themselves. I will divide that money into use in 5 sectors ($20,000 each) and select companies in each. I like a minimum of 1000 shares in stocks under $20/share and 500 shares for stocks in the $21-$40/share...I find I don't make money trading for lesser amounts of shares.


Big Mike View Post
OK, so cash yes?

Sent from my phone

It's paper, not cash.

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  #371 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


tturner86 View Post
It's paper, not cash.

Of course, the Fantasy portfolio is based on paper gains....I have yet to see a Fantasy portfolio that is based on real money.

This is not Simulated other than the fact the the orders I place in this portfolio are not ACTUALLY executed. I gave my rules to Mike as far as how I decide if a trade was executed. Sometimes I make real purchases of varying size in my REAL portfolio's based on of the stocks that I mention here. The size of such purchases may be bigger or smaller depending on my REAL needs.

I doubt anyone on this website (I cannot see your journal so have no comment on your approach) lays out exactly every trade in the detail I do, and explain why they make such trades at least the day before they are executed.

The object of this journal: Is to display the fact that it IS possible to be a long term trader in today's stock market... the Bank of Toronto in this fantasy portfolio has been there since Feb/14...I have no desire to sell it .... in reality and in this fantasy portfolio...in fact if anything I would add to this solid stock.

the secondary objective is to show HOW I use Technical Analysis combined with how I also use my Limited understanding of Fundamental analysis to make long term investments and swings trades.

Third objective is to discuss the new approach to TA that I have researched and are now bringing to a useful stage.

As can be seen by the twice weekly updates on this as-real-as-possible fantasy portfolio, I am not frightened of blowing an account. I don't use Stop-Loss or Limited Stop-Loss orders UNLESS I want to sell a stock...not to protect myself after buying one. I use those orders strictly to give a stock a chance to make more money (even losers that I give up on) and then I trail (manually) such orders until they are filled.

As can be seen by my twice weekly updates I have made no attempt to camouflage or hide my losses during the last 9 months....this fantasy portfolio is as close to real trading as possible.

One thing that annoys me to no end is in the past when I have been poked repeatedly about my lack of money management or targets. I am not a frightened day trader (no offense to experienced day-traders intended) who have little technical skills and are paranoid about losing their account because they leave their trades active overnight.

I have no targets for my purchases because in a stock held for months/years it is impossible to predict how high a stock price will rise or fall. I may have resistance/support levels that I pay attention too but those are not necessarily targets.

This journal is about mainly TA and how I use it. I am discussing as clearly as possible what I do and it is a lot more than drawing trend lines (trend lines are fine but there is a lot more information available to make decisions).

I welcome questions and discussion of what I do regarding TA. But I will not have this journal hijacked as it was in the past with subjects that have no interest to me.....my journal.....my rules.

I hope this is clear now..... 'nough said on this subject.

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  #372 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Why not trade it cash? Are you trading something else cash but not posting it?


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  #373 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Big Mike View Post
Why not trade it cash? Are you trading something else cash but not posting it?


Sent from my phone

My portfolio(s) in reality are a lot higher than $100,000. This is a trivial amount for me .... you cannot live 10 years with no other income on a poke of $100,000 and live a reasonable lifestyle.... if you disagree with that you live on a side income and not solely on income from stocks.

For the FINAL TIME , this is a fantasy portfolio....I have never hidden this fact at all....the trades made in this portfolio are as close to real as I can make it. Often they are made based on my real decisions though the volumes may be different.

I am tired of this conversation...If my content and style of this journal is a problem...I will leave for good....this is not a satisfying conversation for me, obviously...

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  #374 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok....now that we have that out of the way...let us discuss something productive.

Those of you that seriously want to understand how I read a chart and how I use indicators will get a lot out of the following discussions.

My goal here is to:

1. Get you to think critically about how a chart/overlay/indicator works
2. Decide whether or not there is information from one indicator that adds to the information of another indicator, thereby making a situation easier to understand
3. (for my benefit) field a discussion each post, that furthers the understanding of the topic. This is done by questions/comments from you, that you want me to comment on. They can be something you see in the charts that might be meaningful or a question where you have found an example that runs contrary to what I am suggesting.

This is positive dialog, I learn as well as you since the best way to really learn something is to teach it.

Another goal is to try to hammer out rules that I can use with my new chart form. As I have said, the purpose of this new chart with the modified Trigger chart and Quad analysis is to be a mega watch list.... something that will draw my attention to a stock or index or commodity... any interesting vehicle that has data consisting of volume/open/hi/lo/close data.... When I am alerted I will do my normal 3-4 full meal chart analysis to arrive at a final decision.

***************************************************************************

Our first discussion will be on the use of BBWidth indicator. Why is this indicator important? For me it is the trigger for many events. But rather than just give you a grocery list of features, I want you to see the thought process that you might use to evaluate charts. This will probably be the only discussion on charting that is not limited to having you memorizing patterns... rather you will hopefully be able to understand patterns.

To start, I will present 4 BBWidth charts. I won't identify them yet. What I want you to do is study them and think of these questions:

1. Can you figure out which stocks are cheap/expensive???
2. Is there significant differences between them that give you a clue as to which country the company is based?
3. Most of all, what are the interesting features common to all charts that you think are worth investigating further?
4. Can you suggest which chart indicates a stock undergoing a major event? Is it Bullish or Bearish

Here are the charts:

Chart 1




Chart 2





Chart 3





Chart 4






You can just think of those questions if you want, comments are welcome too.


I will not make another post here until the evening....about 12 hours from now. Aside from answering any questions, I will be making one or two posts on just these charts...you will see how I have evolved in looking at charts

Good Trading

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  #375 (permalink)
 matevisky 
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Thank you for the challange, and lessons. Great stuff, please keep that in mind I am totally newbie. So here is my observation:
1. Can you figure out which stocks are cheap/expensive???
No way that I can guess. If I have to do it because there is a gun at my hand, I would say, all the stocks are cheap, if the BB width expension is great.:
- Chart 1 aug. I guess it is cheap, november getting very expensive
- Chart 2 mar. Cheap, than getting expensive
- Chart 3 mar. Cheap, than slow trend up with peaks
- Chart 4 big drop at march, than goes up

2. Is there significant differences between them that give you a clue as to which country the company is based?
- No way man I would say It could be guessable based on peak levels. There should be significant news, or data. In chart 3 there is 4 peak, meaning for me it could be the states, with GDP data... but really no experience on this

3. Most of all, what are the interesting features common to all charts that you think are worth investigating further?
- Chart 4 is not nice and steady for me
- Chart 3 giving a lots of decision point, to enter
- Chart 1 after a big correction I guess, and it should be developing now slowly, meaning ranging, so it could be
- Chart 2 I like it it is smooth
For my, chart 2, and chart 3

4. Can you suggest which chart indicates a stock undergoing a major event? Is it Bullish or Bearish
- Chart 1 bullish
- Chart 3 bearish

---
Please dont kill me on sight if it is totally stupidness...

Máté
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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


matevisky View Post
Please dont kill me on sight if it is totally stupidness...

I will start with your last statement first. Mate...I applaud your bravery. Your answer and comments are exactly what I had hoped for. You bring up points that I had not considered and you and others reading this will be the benefactors.

You are correct on several observations and clearly you are a beginner at understanding Technical Analysis... but if you continue doing this and studying my comments your learning curve will be quite short.

Let's look at your answers, the bolding is mine for emphasis


matevisky View Post
1. Can you figure out which stocks are cheap/expensive???

No way that I can guess. If I have to do it because there is a gun at my hand, I would say, all the stocks are cheap, if the BB width expension is great.:
- Chart 1 aug. I guess it is cheap, november getting very expensive
- Chart 2 mar. Cheap, than getting expensive
- Chart 3 mar. Cheap, than slow trend up with peaks
- Chart 4 big drop at march, than goes up

You are absolutely correct with your first statement. It is impossible to judge a stock's worth from this indicator.

That is good news...it means that the patterns we will ferret out will apply to all stocks, no matter how expensive. In this group there is a stock in the $1-$5 range and another over $1000 per share... the patterns are the same.

What you did wrong... is that you then placed a gun to your head and took pure guesses. Never do that. It is not that we don't make a guess at the end of an analysis.... But we make an "EDUCATED" guess. We apply out knowledge of past performance to make a decision. Such patterns do repeat...sometimes the are "head-fakes" a sports idiom where a ball carrier looks one way to confuse a tackler and runs in another direction... the same thing happens in Stock prices... indicators don't always give good information but there are ways to decide good information from the bad and ugly.... NEVER DEPEND ON A SINGLE INDICATOR or Chart OVERLAY. I believe this is why many traders dislike indicators. I hope to change that opinion here eventually.


matevisky View Post
2. Is there significant differences between them that give you a clue as to which country the company is based?

- No way man I would say It could be guessable based on peak levels. There should be significant news, or data. In chart 3 there is 4 peak, meaning for me it could be the states, with GDP data... but really no experience on this

Again you are correct. It does not matter what country the company has its chart in.

these examples that I posted include: an American stock, A Canadian Stock, a European Stock and a metal commodity.

Bollinger Band Width (BBWidth) applies to any data set that has an equal time period and a value that changes with time...it does not have to be price, it can be anything... a stock from any country, a commodity intra-day or EOD price even FOREX



matevisky View Post
3. Most of all, what are the interesting features common to all charts that you think are worth investigating further?
- Chart 4 is not nice and steady for me
- Chart 3 giving a lots of decision point, to enter
- Chart 1 after a big correction I guess, and it should be developing now slowly, meaning ranging, so it could be
- Chart 2 I like it it is smooth
For my, chart 2, and chart 3

No you are incorrect here. It is not an easy question to answer, however I will discuss this question in more detail in a few minutes


matevisky View Post
4. Can you suggest which chart indicates a stock undergoing a major event? Is it Bullish or Bearish
- Chart 1 bullish
- Chart 3 bearish

Actually you are correct in that Chart 3 is probably currently undergoing a major event right now.... However BBwidth cannot tell us whether it is a bullish or bearish event.... we need more information to decide that. BUT, just knowing that there is a major change that might take place would be very useful from a watch point of view.

WHAT ARE BOLLINGER BANDS?? and how do they relate to their companion indicator Bollinger Band width (BBWidth)

this is a quote showing how Bollinger Bands are calculatedBollinger Bands.
(Note: I will now call Bollinger Bands by their nicknames BB's or Bollies)

Bollinger Bands [ChartSchool]


Quoting 
SharpCharts Calculation

* Middle Band = 20-day simple moving average (SMA)
* Upper Band = 20-day SMA + (20-day standard deviation of price x 2)
* Lower Band = 20-day SMA - (20-day standard deviation of price x 2)

I strongly recommend reading StockCharts.com Chart School articles... In my opinion this is one of the strongest charting service on the internet.... their free service is excellent and can be enhanced through membership.

Here is an example of a Bollie overlay





You can see the dotted blue 20daySMA (simple moving average) and the solid blue lines above and below the dotted line.... each line is 2 standard deviation units from the 20 daySMA. They represent an envelope where one expects about 90% of the numbers used to construct the should lie within those boundries... if the price goes above or below those blue lines this is VERY significant...but we will discuss this further in coming posts.

BBWidth is related to the BB's by means of this calculation:

BBWidth = (UpperBB -LowerBB)/ 20daySMA x 100

So in words BBWidth equals the difference between the upper and lower BB's divided by the 20daySMA (sometimes called "the middle band) and multiplied by 100 to convert the number as a percentage.

SO... the BBwidth is related to the width of the BB's...dividing this number by the 20 daySMA and multiplying it by 100 normalizes the result between 0 - 100%

As the BBwidth gets larger....the bb's are spreading further apart. As the BBwidth gets smaller the bands are getting more narrow.

The Bollies are a measure of price volatility... the further apart the bb's are the more volatile the stock prices... the closer they are the more stable those prices have become.

We will talk about this in further detail later


WHAT ARE THE INTERESTING patterns in the BBWidth charts that I showed you.???? I will show WHAT I see in such a chart, that I would want to investigate further. There are many things to look at. I will use a different chart for each feature but you will see similar features in all the charts.

If I was presented with this type of chart for the first time this is what would go through my mind as I looked at them


Chart #1





This is VERY interesting. See how the chart tends to fall back to the same region before it zooms up again....sometimes it stays at this low level for a while...What is going on here? If you look at the other charts they all basically act in a similar manner...some more reproducible than others....can predictions be made on this pattern.

Maybe...maybe know....but this is worth checking out.

Chart #2





What do these sudden rises mean? Can I use this knowledge?


Chart #3





What is going on during these up and down slopes???

Chart #4





What is happening when the tops are rounded like this? Is it bullish or bearish?


As you can see there are 4 major formations that jump out at me....What do they mean? and are they significant? Can I make decisions or draw inference from these observations.

I would then MATE these BBwidth charts to their corresponding main charts. Interesting observations to follow

Conclusion:

This may seem silly to many of you. However it is only by observation of patterns and then investigating what they mean can you really understand what an indicator can do for you.

More on this in the next post.

Comments like MATE's are welcome

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  #377 (permalink)
 matevisky 
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Thank you for your kind words. I will do the study today, but quick markup from my side. My biggest issue with trading is to wait. So I am grabing every moment and opportunity to teach myself to better to wait, instead of jump in. Every indication, every little piece of advice which is teaching me patient, is helping me to improve. Just a little example. Chart 1 BBWidth testing back all the time the same level. Great observation. Great stuff, and pattern, which is good to observe. Great NOGO decion on that stock till I dont see the stuff what She likes to do.
And overall ofc always good thing to learn, but the purpose the way, how you are selecting, how you are analyzing, and waiting for a perfect moment like a predator, is amazed me! So this is my extra takeaway from this forum! Thank you

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 iqgod 
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matevisky View Post
Thank you for your kind words. I will do the study today, but quick markup from my side. My biggest issue with trading is to wait. So I am grabing every moment and opportunity to teach myself to better to wait, instead of jump in

....


I want to tell you this:

It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.

- Jesse Livermore

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 matevisky 
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Underexposed View Post
Chart #1





This is VERY interesting. See how the chart tends to fall back to the same region before it zooms up again....sometimes it stays at this low level for a while...What is going on here? If you look at the other charts they all basically act in a similar manner...some more reproducible than others....can predictions be made on this pattern.

Maybe...maybe know....but this is worth checking out.

Chart #2





What do these sudden rises mean? Can I use this knowledge?


Chart #3





What is going on during these up and down slopes???

Chart #4





What is happening when the tops are rounded like this? Is it bullish or bearish?


As you can see there are 4 major formations that jump out at me....What do they mean? and are they significant? Can I make decisions or draw inference from these observations.

BBWidth indicator for ninja:
Bollinger BandWidth indicator. - NinjaTrader Support Forum

Chart 1: More down, bigger the explosion. Thus, if we are right with the explosion direction, than we can hold the trade as long as we didnt get a peak. Meaning no need to move the SL, just w8 the outcome...

Chart 2: sudden rise = breakout. It could be fake, this will never tell you it is a fake or not, or the first direction is good or not. Just that it is doing something. Thus we could get better entry if the breakout starting with a fake breakout - pullback...

Chart 3: consolidation will come. Market will not move, tired. Also it could be a good hint: take care after a big trend always a correction is coming. If you dont want to sit through the correction you trend lover bastard, it is a time to scale out

Chart 4: Hey I am doing nothing here just a usual stuff. Most probably slowly trending up or trending down, after a big move. I will not give you great pullback to enter, just small ones. If you looking for an entry here, most probably I will kick you out during the next move... go fish to somewhere else!

(guessing, after some chart reading...)

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 bobwest 
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Underexposed View Post
I will start with your last statement first. Mate...I applaud your bravery. Your answer and comments are exactly what I had hoped for. You bring up points that I had not considered and you and others reading this will be the benefactors.

You are correct on several observations and clearly you are a beginner at understanding Technical Analysis... but if you continue doing this and studying my comments your learning curve will be quite short.

Let's look at your answers, the bolding is mine for emphasis



You are absolutely correct with your first statement. It is impossible to judge a stock's worth from this indicator.

That is good news...it means that the patterns we will ferret out will apply to all stocks, no matter how expensive. In this group there is a stock in the $1-$5 range and another over $1000 per share... the patterns are the same.

What you did wrong... is that you then placed a gun to your head and took pure guesses. Never do that. It is not that we don't make a guess at the end of an analysis.... But we make an "EDUCATED" guess. We apply out knowledge of past performance to make a decision. Such patterns do repeat...sometimes the are "head-fakes" a sports idiom where a ball carrier looks one way to confuse a tackler and runs in another direction... the same thing happens in Stock prices... indicators don't always give good information but there are ways to decide good information from the bad and ugly.... NEVER DEPEND ON A SINGLE INDICATOR or Chart OVERLAY. I believe this is why many traders dislike indicators. I hope to change that opinion here eventually.



Again you are correct. It does not matter what country the company has its chart in.

these examples that I posted include: an American stock, A Canadian Stock, a European Stock and a metal commodity.

Bollinger Band Width (BBWidth) applies to any data set that has an equal time period and a value that changes with time...it does not have to be price, it can be anything... a stock from any country, a commodity intra-day or EOD price even FOREX




No you are incorrect here. It is not an easy question to answer, however I will discuss this question in more detail in a few minutes



Actually you are correct in that Chart 3 is probably currently undergoing a major event right now.... However BBwidth cannot tell us whether it is a bullish or bearish event.... we need more information to decide that. BUT, just knowing that there is a major change that might take place would be very useful from a watch point of view.

WHAT ARE BOLLINGER BANDS?? and how do they relate to their companion indicator Bollinger Band width (BBWidth)

this is a quote showing how Bollinger Bands are calculatedBollinger Bands.
(Note: I will now call Bollinger Bands by their nicknames BB's or Bollies)

Bollinger Bands [ChartSchool]



I strongly recommend reading StockCharts.com Chart School articles... In my opinion this is one of the strongest charting service on the internet.... their free service is excellent and can be enhanced through membership.

Here is an example of a Bollie overlay





You can see the dotted blue 20daySMA (simple moving average) and the solid blue lines above and below the dotted line.... each line is 2 standard deviation units from the 20 daySMA. They represent an envelope where one expects about 90% of the numbers used to construct the should lie within those boundries... if the price goes above or below those blue lines this is VERY significant...but we will discuss this further in coming posts.

BBWidth is related to the BB's by means of this calculation:

BBWidth = (UpperBB -LowerBB)/ 20daySMA x 100

So in words BBWidth equals the difference between the upper and lower BB's divided by the 20daySMA (sometimes called "the middle band) and multiplied by 100 to convert the number as a percentage.

SO... the BBwidth is related to the width of the BB's...dividing this number by the 20 daySMA and multiplying it by 100 normalizes the result between 0 - 100%

As the BBwidth gets larger....the bb's are spreading further apart. As the BBwidth gets smaller the bands are getting more narrow.

The Bollies are a measure of price volatility... the further apart the bb's are the more volatile the stock prices... the closer they are the more stable those prices have become.

We will talk about this in further detail later


WHAT ARE THE INTERESTING patterns in the BBWidth charts that I showed you.???? I will show WHAT I see in such a chart, that I would want to investigate further. There are many things to look at. I will use a different chart for each feature but you will see similar features in all the charts.

If I was presented with this type of chart for the first time this is what would go through my mind as I looked at them


Chart #1





This is VERY interesting. See how the chart tends to fall back to the same region before it zooms up again....sometimes it stays at this low level for a while...What is going on here? If you look at the other charts they all basically act in a similar manner...some more reproducible than others....can predictions be made on this pattern.

Maybe...maybe know....but this is worth checking out.

Chart #2





What do these sudden rises mean? Can I use this knowledge?


Chart #3





What is going on during these up and down slopes???

Chart #4





What is happening when the tops are rounded like this? Is it bullish or bearish?


As you can see there are 4 major formations that jump out at me....What do they mean? and are they significant? Can I make decisions or draw inference from these observations.

I would then MATE these BBwidth charts to their corresponding main charts. Interesting observations to follow

Conclusion:

This may seem silly to many of you. However it is only by observation of patterns and then investigating what they mean can you really understand what an indicator can do for you.

More on this in the next post.

Comments like MATE's are welcome

Really interesting work on the Bollinger width. I've used it before, but it's been a while, and I'll have to come back to this post when I can read it in more detail. This is a very interesting post. Thanks for it.

Bob.

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 Underexposed 
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matevisky View Post
BBWidth indicator for ninja:
Bollinger BandWidth indicator. - NinjaTrader Support Forum

Chart 1: More down, bigger the explosion. Thus, if we are right with the explosion direction, than we can hold the trade as long as we didnt get a peak. Meaning no need to move the SL, just w8 the outcome...

Chart 2: sudden rise = breakout. It could be fake, this will never tell you it is a fake or not, or the first direction is good or not. Just that it is doing something. Thus we could get better entry if the breakout starting with a fake breakout - pullback...

Chart 3: consolidation will come. Market will not move, tired. Also it could be a good hint: take care after a big trend always a correction is coming. If you dont want to sit through the correction you trend lover bastard, it is a time to scale out

Chart 4: Hey I am doing nothing here just a usual stuff. Most probably slowly trending up or trending down, after a big move. I will not give you great pullback to enter, just small ones. If you looking for an entry here, most probably I will kick you out during the next move... go fish to somewhere else!

(guessing, after some chart reading...)

You are jumping ahead of yourself....slow down puppy ..... I know you are eager but you cannot make ANY guesses until you see the main chart that EACH belongs with.

What I am doing is taking the readers of this thread, step by step through the thought processes I go through when evaluating an indicator... I have not found every indicator to be useful...it took me 10 years to get to where I am today...you cannot make any judgements by what I have shown so far. I have only shown interesting parts of the indicator's chart that I would want to investigate...nothing more...

There is a rhythm to this indicator's chart...is it random or is there useful areas that can improve your trading. In a soon to follow post you will see some good stuff and as we progress, I will build on those observations...

Watch and learn and if you are confused ask a question but don't make any predictions on charts yet...you are only guessing and Technical analysis is supposed to remove MOST of the guess work... otherwise it would be useless.

I looked at that link to Ninja trader that you posted. The BBwidth indicator is available but this discussion was basically on installation. It referred to the B% indicator which is another variation John Bollinger created. I have looked at this in the past but did not see anything in it that I could use.

Patience my friend...

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bobwest View Post
Really interesting work on the Bollinger width. I've used it before, but it's been a while, and I'll have to come back to this post when I can read it in more detail. This is a very interesting post. Thanks for it.

Bob.

Welcome aboard Bob....as the carnival barker says "You ain't seen nothing yet!"

I am just leading you through the thought processes I go through when evaluating an indicator.

I consider Bollinger Bands and BBwidth to be a key to buy/hold/sell triggers. MACD and Slow Sto are other components of the trigger and they will be added as we go along...of the three indicators the BBwidth is the most important....it is the foundation of this chart... the others are support players.

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 Underexposed 
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Ok...We have looked at the BBwidth charts themselves.... now lets mate them up with their respective Main charts to see what conclusions we can draw based on those patterns


Chart #1





In this BBWidth chart we were focusing on the fact that the BBwidth line seemed to return to a consistent low value.

When you mate it up to the main chart....see at the edges of those dotted boxes, the major movements of a stock price seem to start when the stock price falls to those levels.

We need some help though in predicting exactly when a stock will undergo a major movement and that will come when we add other indicators....but when we are looking at a main chart and we seemed to have missed an entry, wait til the BBwidth falls to this baseline then take advantage of the next major movement (bull or bear)

Actually, I have found that I can guess pretty closely when the next major movement will occur by simply extrapolating how long it will take for the BBwidth will return to baseline. In this case looking at the end of the chart I would say it will be at least 2-3 weeks before the BBwidth returns to baseline

This might not seem earthshaking but if you are a swing player, you want to be in on the play early...not late.

Chart #2





Ah...when you think that a $200,000/share stock is a dead stock....think again

this stock is active...

So... the beginning of these larger peaks represent a start of a price movement of significance... the higher it rises the bigger the movement (of course at the beginning you cannot judge how high it will rise)

Number 3 is interesting....see that small rise a plateau then large rise??? I call that a head fake... the price seems to be going one way then changes direction in a day or so.

These are not easy to judge on the basis of just a Main chart and BBwidth.... but don't worry, later on we will see how we can figure these problems out....

Number 4 shows us two head fakes before the real direction is decided....it would be nice to resolve this and not be sucked in by a head fake.....trust me...we will be able to figure it out.


Chart #3





Yikes!...those BBwidth rises ARE NOT indicators of a Bullish run (shock and surprise)... they are the start of a movement (shown by the green arrows.

The peaks of the rises though indicates the end of a run.... is it an absolute end....not always they could be a just a rest.

You might say "what is the point of judging a rest??" Well, if you are a swing player, you have a reason to sell on a bull run or cover a short....no guessing involved....no take 10% and run....I believe this could be quite useful in intra-day trading though I don't do this kind of trading and some times shorter time intervals can be a problem but I think it is worth testing.

Chart #4





this is our European stock....unilever

Very tight movement in price (candles are small) this is a European company but listed on the NYSE as an ADS (American Depositary Share) This is a description of this type of share

American Depositary Share (ADS) Definition | Investopedia

this is the real chart for Unilever which is on the London Exchange





As you can see they are quite different... it shows you that ADR and ADS stocks are not really what you think they are....they are not representations of a European stock. I would not put money into such a stock ... Why? because it will not respond as the real stock to Fundamental info (I mean the good stuff...not fluff)....but that is me.

Any way that is not the point of this exercise.

look at Chart 4 and see that those areas we thought were interesting they relate to disorganized movement common in consolidation...you cannot make long term decisions here

You can also see that the start of a rise in a major peak is the beginning of a rise or fall....we can see in 20/20 hindsight which direction will dominate (Bull or Bear)....but that is not enough for consistent , good decisions to be made.

Conclusions:

What have we learned so far?

1. the start of major movements takes place at the start of a rise in the BBwidth when it has fallen to its base line.

2. The end of a major movement takes place when a rise has peaked and reversed direction

3. There is nothing in the BBwidth that can predict if the movement will be Bullish or Bearish

4. There can be false alarms (Head fakes) at the beginning that are annoying


so...as with most indicators...you get some info but it is often not enough to make a good decision on.

Can we improve on this.....??? Of course we can or I would not be doing this exercise.

In the next post we will look at MACD another indicator that people swear by and swear at.... it will be an interesting look at how I use it.

Good trading

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  #384 (permalink)
 matevisky 
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Cool. I always would love the behind the scene movies Using the indicator is one thing, getting deeper understand it in different markets, are great. Really great.

Speaking frankly just checking these moves, getting more and more confident about that, dont trade, if the picture is not clear. Really, if there is noise there is no clarity. Love it!

This is good about Stocks. Really. You can check over hundreds of hundreds stock, and simply just selecting it, based on I like it, I dont like it.
My favorit is Chart 1. Really nice and stedy moves. Guessing if we are going to put next to some financial aspect it would be moch more better. I know we are focusing on technical right now

Really looking forward the chart 2 head fake tell... My story in a ranging market was to never bought in a middle. Choose site, and go in at the end of the range, dont think, dont wait comfirmation. So I would be happy to see what is coming next here

Chart 3. No news here. I am intraday trading this was the most similar for me

Chart 4. Not my taste to many zig-zag... but hey, this is what is it...:P

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It has been a rocky week in Canada...it started good on Monday then the TSX lost 147 points yesterday and now it is up nicely today....whew!!!




We are shooting for a 4th positive week. Badger Daylighting is performing fine for 3 days...it should be a good addition...

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  #386 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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Thanks @Underexposed, these kind of interactive learning posts are quite interesting.

Without more indicators or rules It seems really difficult (or not profitable) to trade the breakouts of the bands because of the huge number of head fakes. I'm an intraday trader and I hope we can both benefit from the discussion. I'm looking forward to the next post.

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Malthus View Post
Thanks @Underexposed, these kind of interactive learning posts are quite interesting.

Without more indicators or rules It seems really difficult (or not profitable) to trade the breakouts of the bands because of the huge number of head fakes. I'm an intraday trader and I hope we can both benefit from the discussion. I'm looking forward to the next post.

Yes, head fakes are a problem.

You can solve this problem a little bit by not jumping on a trade prematurely. So many traders take a single uptick as a buy signal. Long term traders usually don't fall prey to these traps as we are not trying to squeeze all the blood out of a trade but occasionally it does happen.

If you look at the trades I have made in this portfolio I have not fallen into that trap on buying too often. My losing trades have been with my obsession with the gold stocks .... I have made small profits on them and then incurred bigger losses by hanging on to when the commodity price falls and falls again.... the other losses occurred simply in September when the Canadian market took a severe correction. That is just being caught in collateral damage and is not a problem with the company per se.

You have not see me lose 10% or so right after the buy has been made. I am confident in my buys...you could look at Badger Daylighting... my last buy here.... I announced a buy @ $27.70 on Monday...Tuesday there was a 145 pt. drop in the TSX dragging the price of BAD.TO down to $27.00 and today we are up to $27.99 at last look... long term this will be a good choice...I have owned this company before buying it at $5.00 ten years ago Selling it at about $25 Two years ago....for a 400% gain...then watched it rise to $100 WTF!.... but I don't chase once I sell. It split forward 3:1 and dropped a little as much of its business is oil service related....but now it looks to rebound to me.

But Head fakes are a curse.....I am taking it slow going through a major chart in my arsenal.... my so called "trigger" chart, where I combine a main chart with Bollies and SMA's Plus 3 indices...

We have basically finished the BBwidth indicator when used by itself and you can see that by itself its usefulness is limited....we will next look at MACD and you will see my comments on its usefulness as a single indicator.

BUT then we will see how "Powerful" the BBWidth and MACD become when I use the two together.

I am taking it slowly because if you understand how this is put together you will be much better at interpreting the chart.... it may be slow but hey! it took me years to put this together...you are getting a fast tracked look at this.

You say that you are an intra-day trader....I am not....But I believe that there are many aspects about what I am talking about that could make your intra-day trades more profitable using the chart that I have developed.

You could help me, as can other such traders by trying my methods in your trades, you don't have to put cash into the trades until you are confident in what you are doing....but see if the charts and comments I make as a long term trader apply to your type of trading. If there are problems, identify them with a concrete example and we can discuss them...same thing that those that do commodities and Forex...I look at Forex and it seems to be a lot of guesswork to me as to entries and exits... but I am certain they can be improved using my chart.

Thanks for your comment....My next post will be on MACD and why I use it without a signal line....and why I think the signal line works better for intra-day trading than long term. Then I will show how it is powerful the way I use it with BBwidth.

Good trading.........

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 Malthus 
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Underexposed View Post
Yes, head fakes are a problem.

You can solve this problem a little bit by not jumping on a trade prematurely. So many traders take a single uptick as a buy signal. Long term traders usually don't fall prey to these traps as we are not trying to squeeze all the blood out of a trade but occasionally it does happen.

Perhaps It would be interesting to study the average length of the move after the breakout (when it's a head fake and when it's not), so that you enter at a worse price but with the relative certainty that it's not a head fake.

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Malthus View Post
Perhaps It would be interesting to study the average length of the move after the breakout (when it's a head fake and when it's not), so that you enter at a worse price but with the relative certainty that it's not a head fake.

It is an interesting thought. However, wait and see what I have in mind.

From my limited experience of Intra-day trading...I think head fakes occur more in longer term trades that intra-day. I have a good way of spotting them....but it is done with the full chart and that will take a few days of posts before we get there.

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For years I have anecdotally hated MACD for long term daily charts...there were too many false alerts and the good ones lagged too much to be optimal.

Ironically, I found for intra-day charts, the traditional MACD was not too bad .... using the signal line.

What the heck was going on....why are shorter term charts better. First I will show you how MACD is calculated, then why I hate how it is traditionally used in long term (daily/weekly) charts compared to a 5 minute chart. Then I will proposed a reason for the poor performance in daily/weekly charts.

WHAT IS MACD

It is a momentum indicator and is defined by the following calculation this comes from StockCharts chartschool and you should read the article

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Oscillator (MACD) [ChartSchool]



Quoting 
Calculation


MACD Line: (12-day EMA - 26-day EMA)

Signal Line: 9-day EMA of MACD Line

MACD Histogram: MACD Line - Signal Line

So traditionally the MACD line is a subtraction of the 12dayEMA from the 26dayEMA. Actually it should say 12intervalEMA and 26intervalEMA, where the interval could be minutes to weeks.

The EMA's are customizable and you see many swear by a a different combination but in my trials I could make some combinations act faster or slower but overall 12/26 seemed to be the best. Same thing with the 9 intervalEMA signal line....sure I could make it react faster or slower but the faster gave too many false alarms and the slower was not fast enough and opportunities were missed.

I found the traditional default to be fine for what it was.


Quoting 
Centerline Crossovers

Centerline crossovers are the next most common MACD signals. A bullish centerline crossover occurs when the MACD Line moves above the zero line to turn positive. This happens when the 12-day EMA of the underlying security moves above the 26-day EMA. A bearish centerline crossover occurs when the MACD moves below the zero line to turn negative. This happens when the 12-day EMA moves below the 26-day EMA.

The bolding is mine. This made no sense to me in daily charts look at the one for BAC below (I like using BAC as it usually shows what I want as it has a lot of action and besides BAC is easy to type )

Here is a daily chart with MACD



Really??? The green lines are when the MACD shows a bullish trend....hahaha it has been bullish for weeks before that

And Bullish (red line) fall below the zero line are equally bad...the lag was completely unacceptable. The dotted red line is a more clear indication than the one to the left of it...but it did not give a clearer indication ...the lag was greater. It reminds me of Cramer's predictions where stocks have been bearish or bullish weeks before he says they are...and then they turn.

So this center line alert is useless....right!!! Well not really ....look at a 5 minute chart





Not bad, eh (now you really know I am Canadian )

Yes there is a lag. But you would clearly have made profits by buying at the Green line and selling at the red... 15 cents the first time and about 17 cents the second time

Funny, eh....so terrible for daily charts but not bad for 5 minute chart......WTF is going on???


Quoting 
Signal Line Crossovers

Signal line crossovers are the most common MACD signals. The signal line is a 9-day EMA of the MACD Line. As a moving average of the indicator, it trails the MACD and makes it easier to spot MACD turns. A bullish crossover occurs when the MACD turns up and crosses above the signal line. A bearish crossover occurs when the MACD turns down and crosses below the signal line. Crossovers can last a few days or a few weeks, it all depends on the strength of the move.

Well let's look at the Daily chart for this buy/sell criteria





Well there is a definite improvement there...you would have made money both times...not the maximum amount but at least a comforting swing trade of about 30 cents in the first interval and a better $1.75 in the second...not bad

let's see what we get on the 5 min chart





WOW...you pretty much squeezed all the juice in each trade...a little early on the sell on both trades but not bad and much better than the daily trades.


I think that if day traders...especially newbies with little TA experience used MACD in their charts...and using this signal line/MACD crossovers (WAITING FOR a nice CLEAR crossover) they would not be afraid of milking a intra-day swing and make more from each trade.

But why are shorter interval MACD charts better than longer term charts

This bothered me for years but in preparing this post I had a bright idea....What are the Standard deviations in the long term intervals versus the short term intervals.

Well I am not sure how to compute a Std Deviation of a EMA (it is really an artificial average....but I looked at SIMPLE MOVING averages (SMA)

And this is what I found



Wow.... the Std deviation at a weekly interval on a % of the average is HUGE compared to that of a 5 min interval by a factor of 30-50.

So there is the reason for me anyway....the smaller the interval....the less error in the calculation of the MACD... now it makes sense to me.


DOES that MEAN that MACD is useless in daily charts?
.....nopes...not the way I use it....I ignore all those buy/sell signs...I get rid of the signal line all together.

But I am getting ahead of myself....that will be my next Major post

Good trading........

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  #391 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok I am back for another post on MACD

I hope what I said about MACD makes sense.... not bad in short term interval (intra-day charts) but less useful in long term charts (daily)...this is true when using traditional methods of evaluation this indicator.

I should stop here for a second and discuss indicator selection.

Are all indicators good? I will give a limited yes if they have been around for a while. I have not evaluated every one I have seen...I don't really have a reason to look further as I have my suite of indicators and spent many years evaluating their use. Some indicators are too wild for me, they fluctuate madly and I don't find them predictable or relating to price.

Should you use/learn every indicator that you find. Even the decent understandable ones have a problem. If two indicators give a very similar look at a chart .... don't pick both indicators...You are not making your analysis better. You are getting false reinforcement.

MACD and TRIX are a good example of this as can be shown in this chart...





As you can see, the two indicators track each other pretty closely, even though they have a very different calculation. TRIX is a bit smoother but I like MACD as it more closely follows the dips and rises of price.

Always choose an indicator for a reason, how it enhances your ability to interpret the chart. I have seen many beautiful ....basically useless charts in my time....this is not an art class.


How I use MACD

I don't use it by itself unless I must do so because of limited selection of other indicators. For example BigCharts.com does not offer a BBwidth indicator.

I have found that the signal line is useless in Daily charts as I have shown ..... but trending the peaks and troughs is better...

Look at this chart of our friend BAC





The first thing you see when you eliminate the signal line is how clean the MACD chart looks...the useless histogram is gone and now you can trend the peaks and troughs.

The early part of this chart has a huge red flag to me. In the dashed blue line see how the share price of BAC is rising .... but the MACD is static then falling. If I were into BAC and saw this I would have slapped a limit stop-loss order on this sucker pretty quick. Suddenly this stock plunged and I suppose it caught many by surprise but you, by observing this contrary behavior had a heads up months in advance.

the breaking of the trend line corresponds reasonably well to major price trend changes

BUT this is not really how I use it.....Let us mate the MACD chart with the Bollinger bands and BBwidth and see what we get.

Put this will be a huge post so we will break here for the time being....the next post IS VERY IMPORTANT. it will be full of neat tips

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  #392 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Okay, you have been patient with me...we still have one more indicator to add but just this pairing of Bollies, MACD and BBwidth will improve your chart reading to no end.

It is impossible to show you everything to look for in one chart. We will find more and more stuff in the charts we look at. So what we will do right now is look at the 4 charts that we started with when we began this exercise... that is Enercare [TSX:eci], Berkshire A [BRK/A], Silver (EOD) and Unilever (UL) as an ADS.

We will look at each chart and create 3 comment sections (Bollies, MACD, and BBwidth) then we will look at the combination of the three....lots of stuff here so let's get started

1) Enercare Inc




This is a pretty sweet chart to read....everything is clear with little complication...But there are still many interesting features to help you in your decisions

a) Bollies

(1)

There is one feature here that is very important and that is where the share price rises above the upper bollie. I don't mean just peaks over but rather it rises high above the upper bollie. The price does not belong this high...over 90% of the values making up the 20daySMA lie between 2 std deviation units of the 20daySMA and that is the upper and lower Bollie.

So Look at how long the price stays above the upper bollie....not long, eh...2 to 5 days max. Then it will pull back into the Bollie envelope. Arrows a & b are absolutely no problem...see how they renter on a neutral or positive slope...this is very bullish. Arrows c and d are more troublesome as there is a severe pullback... could be a head fake or it could be nothing serious....you need help in evaluating this....and it is there!

b) and c) MACD and BBwidth

the two are mated at the hip here.

I used the green lines to show a buy and red to show a potential sell....these would be more of a swing play...not a long play

look at the first green line on the left.....now look at the MACD trend....it has a slight positive slope and the BBwidth is pretty flat with a very slight positive drift....... NOW look at the Price versus the upper bollie and 20daySMA (dotted line)... See how the price stays above the 20daySMA and tight to the upper BB....that is bullish
So it is no surprise when the price takes a jump

look at the red line to the right of the green. Follow it up to the BBwidth...see the reversal of the BBwidth slope...up to the MACD ...its slope has reversed too....IF YOU WERE MAKING A SWING PLAY, this would be where you sell. BOTH indicators have to make the reversal.

You continue to follow the share price and look at the dotted blue box area.... the BBWidth is back down to the level where dramatic changes happen ... the MACD is steeply declining... the share price is in decline too and is now hugging the lower BB....without any more help the only conclusion would be that this is bearish. You would have to be psychic to see that sudden rise... {sigh} you cannot catch every fish.

But if you did the next red line is the sell sign for a swing play...see the reversal of the MACD then a couple of days later the BBWidth reverses BOTH have to reverse before the signal is complete (actually I jumped the gun by a couple of days in drawing that red line

Now we come to the third green line. See how the MACD has increased its positive slope in the previous 2 weeks, see the share price move to the upper BB..this is bullish so when the BBwidth turns ups uddenly (The BBwidth is the trigger) you buy...but merde! the price goes above the upper BB and falls... should you panic? should you sell?

Look at what is going on in the blue box. that is a sudden drop in price.... the BBwidth stays flat...the MACD dips slightly....BOTH indicators are not moving in tandem...So I would set a limit Stop loss around $13.40 to protect myself....Hold my breath and you are rewarded when the stock recovers.

Conclusions

I am going to stop here and to another in the next major post... more stuff would be too hard to digest for you

but what rules did we learn

1. The direction slope of the MACD when the BBWidth is in the "trigger" zone....if it is falling it is bearish...if it is rising it is bullish

2. However...don't be premature in your judgement...wait for the signals to be complete...protect yourself if you are not certain with a limit Stop loss... this allows the price to rise but protects you if it falls.

3. Prices rising above the upper BB or falling below the lower BB don't stay there long. If they are miles above the upper BB and pumpers are yelling...."Man, this is going to the moon, a 3 bagger at least"... don't listen to them and sell and take your profit while the interest is there....YOU KNOW it will pull back in a day or so.

4. If you see a potential head fake, check out the MACD and BBWidth indicator...they will tell you if the reversal is real or not.


Good Trading ..... the next major post will be tognit or early Saturday

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  #393 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Another positive week...this makes 4 in a row. Badger Daylighting has made a positive impact. It seems that Base metal mines are looking more positive...I will have to take a look at Lundin Mines [TSX:LUN] to see if it is moving to the bullish.

Here is the status of the portfolio at the end of today's trading


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  #394 (permalink)
 Malthus 
Madrid Spain
 
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Good Trading ..... the next major post will be tognit or early Saturday

Nice post! I wonder if this could be applied to charts that don't take time into account, like a tick or volume chart.

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  #395 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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I tried this approach on a 2000 tick chart of the ES on Friday. There was a long setup that was a head fake, but it was quickly identified as such by the falling BBwith and MACD. We could have avoided that trade because it was against resistance (previous high of day). Soon after that there was a short setup that was the correct trade.


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  #396 (permalink)
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Thank you very much for your input and example

I have rearranged the chart a bit by putting the BBwidth on the bottom and that MACD on top of it. The reason (and I have not discussed this yet) is that you can more easily see a formation I call "MACD/BBWidth pinch" This is a great predictor of a bottom to a bearish run....it may not be the final bottom, it may only be a rest before falling further but if you were shorting it would give you an excellent "reason" to cover the short.



I have circled the "pinches" in Blue

The same formations that I have shown in a normal daily chart are there in the tick chart BUT they do not seem to be as well defined and I suppose that is because the intervals are not equal.

It would be interesting to see the same interval as a tick chart and then as the corresponding time chart....you could take a shorter time interval for test.

The dotted blue circles surround the MACD/BBWidth Pinches...Ideally one would want to see the MACD turn sharply up and the BBWidth turn sharply down, but with the irregularity of the y-axis I don't know if that is going to be that clear.

For the heck of it I added a trend line as soon as the trend upward was established....the BBwidth trigger (green line ) to me is just a confirmation the trend will continue....see how the red line, which is basically peaks of MACD and BBWidth down turning...showing the end of a bullish run, crosses the trend line when that support is breached. To me that would be the concrete sell point....for a nice gain.

You have given me an idea that I want to look at further....I basically wait for those "trigger" opportunities for buys and sells....the consolidation after the rises and falls if I hold them I wait they out with an eye to see if things will go seriously bad....but there are swing opportunities there and some predictability as you will see.

Can you generate the same chart with a consistent time base for comparison with the Tick chart???? that would be interesting to see.

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  #397 (permalink)
 Malthus 
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5 min chart.


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  #398 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Let us restate the rules we have learned so far


Quoting 
1. Note the direction slope of the MACD when the BBWidth is in the "trigger" zone....if it is falling it is bearish...if it is rising it is bullish

2. Don't be premature in your judgement...wait for the signals to be complete...protect yourself if you are not certain with a limit Stop loss... this allows the price to rise but protects you if it falls.

3. Prices rising above the upper BB or falling below the lower BB don't stay there long. YOU KNOW it will pull back in a day or so...5 days max.

4. If you see a potential head fake, check out the MACD and BBWidth indicator...they will tell you if the reversal is real or not.

Those head fakes often occur when in the "trigger zone" and there is a above or below the Bollies.


Let us look at another chart





For such an expensive stock, it is sure active...which surprised me.

I have circled in Black 3 instances where the price broke above or below the bollies

1.

Note how muted the MACD and BBWidth are after 2 days....aside from the fact price is below the lower Bollie. the real buy trigger came 10 days later. See the MACD strong slope ...it has started to rising strongly now. MACD usually leads a BBwidth trigger.

the pink circle shows a potential top to the bull run for the previous two weeks. It is ONLY a potential top since only the BBWidth has reversed direction...the MACD has basically plateaued.

NOW from a swing could you be faulted from taking a profit??? Buy @$196K sell @$206k...a $10k profit on ONE share...

BUT I rarely sell outright....I much prefer a trailing Limit Stop Loss...this takes the emotion out of the sale. So I might set the Limit Stop-loss at $203-$202. There is no clear reason to sell (we have another indicator to help us but that is discussed later) and we are rewarded as the price continues to rise

2.

It looks like we are in for another nice bounce....but Danger Will....Danger!!!! , a Lost in Space reference

The price is above the upper BB and the BB's are not rising as fast. Look at the MACD and BBWidth...they are reversing direction....NOW is the time to collect that 5 week swing profit.... two bearish signals to me says sell....Buy @$196K sell @$212k... a $16k profit even better.

3.

We are watching the stock looking for another opportunity. We are traveling horizontally in a channel when suddenly the price spikes down. Start of a huge bear run???? NO, look at the BBwidth....it is falling... not rising... the MACD is flat then rising....falling below the lower BB exposes another head fake.

The clear Buy signal comes 2 weeks later. The BBWidth and MACD give you that gut feeling things are going bullish but it is that sudden increase in slope that cements it.

Conclusion

No real new rules here, Just confirmation of our established rules....there is one thing I want you to check out though.

What happens when a bull or bear run is over??? Hint it involves the 20daySMA (dotted middle BB line)

Next major chart this evening.....

PS. I love the response by @Malthus....it is discussions like this that move me in unexpected dirtections

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  #399 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Excellent!!



See how much cleaner the charts for the indicators are.

ALSO look at how well defined the incidents where you are above or below the BB's

In these cases the sell signals come from rising far above the upper BB's

the buy signals so far are more subtle....that should change when we add one more indicator...but I won't talk about that until I discuss 2 more charts.

In the second case where there was that gap...I drew a trend support like... it is another clue to good things as this rising slope was contrary to the drop in MACD/BBwidth.

To me Charting is much like reading a mystery novel....you are collecting clues , looking for a consensus

I assume that the end of the chart is the end of the trading day on Friday

Look at the position of the BBWidth.... ripe for a rise
Look at the position of the MACD... neutral with a slight rise
Look at the position of the prices in the the BB envelope... the last 5 are above the 20daySMA

I would watch closely at the opening on Monday...Not sure when that happens in North America... it looks like a potential bullish swing trade in the offing to me.....but it is a watch...the buy is when the MACD and BBwidth change to a very abrupt +ve slope.

I am sure there are advantages to a tick chart but I find the 5 min chart easier to read... I wonder if a 10 min chart is even better....this may weed out the really short runs

Edit - 6:30PM

I took another look at this chart...especially the time frame between the two charts and I see my thoughts that the time chart showed the end of day trading...and looking at the tick chart I see that was false. My advice of watching the time chart was bang on though....I advised that things looked not bad but to treat it as a watch... not buy and that turned out looking at the times on the tick chart...soon after the price fell.... always wait for that BBwidth trigger...jumping the gun is spinning the one bullet cylinder on a revolver and pulling the trigger...occasionally you get shot

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  #400 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...here is the Silver eod chart





the first buy and sell was pretty straight forward for a 3 weeks swing from mid June to early July. The bearish run starting on July 25 is pretty straight forward....note the drop below the lower bb only slowed the rise of the BBwidth it did not plateau or reverse direction so it was no head fake.... In the region in the big dotted red circle there is no clear bottom...at best there is a weak rest point....but look how tight the price is hugging the lower BB....that is very bearish.

But on Oct 7... there is a very definite bottom indication with the MACD/BBwidth pinch and it is time to cover your short (if you can short a commodity (I don't play commodities) ) ....Is it bullish now?... nopes, it was just resting and on October 28 there is a clear sign the commodity price will fall further...

One new thing to point out

When a run is over...the price tends to return to the 20daySMA...you see two examples of this in the pink circles in a bearish run. If they rise up this may be bullish....sideways not certain....neg slope not so good.

The other thing to see is in the dotted blue circle. Count them...one, two,three, four five times the stock closed below the lower Bollie. Though the drop seems bad... you EXPECT a pullback into the BB envelope




Sure enough...it pulled back big time the next day and the beginnings of a MACD/BBWidth pinch is forming.

That tool of watching the stock fall above/below the bb's is VERY important.

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