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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #31 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well, I got the price I wanted for MEI.V so it is in my portfolio now as you will see below.

LUN.TO looks to be failing the task of breaching the $5.43 resistance

I usually don't buy when approaching a resistance as of course the possibility failure to make the breach was there but the risk seemed fine to me...looking at those indicators shows a hint of them all going to negative slope and that might spell a downturn but it is not conclusive yet.

the Slow Sto is still over 80 and that augers well so far. The MACD looks as though it will have a Lower high but it is still a work in progress...the BBwidth has a reduced positive slow but it is still positive hence there is still hope

to protect myself I will place a Limit Stop Loss on LUN.TO of $5.12 to $5.10....

this is the current status of my trades and holdings so far as of Feb 19....I normally do this at the end of the week for comparison sake though.

I am currently looking for another O&G company

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  #32 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

It seems there is a rebound of sorts happening in the natural gas industry you can see this in the following chart

Futures Natural Gas Chart Weekly

I thought I would add a decent energy company with growth and dividend growth.

One such company looks to be Bonavista Energy Corporation [TSX:BNP]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

as you can see from the snapshot summary the stock has performed well since about Nov/2013 and pays a decent monthly dividend with an annual dividend of 5.5%

One criteria for selection of a dividend paying stock is that it has a continuous record of dividend payouts

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

As you can see...even through the crash of 2008-2009 this stock continued to pay a monthly dividend...albeit that the dividend was reduced but that is excusable given the plummet in Natural Gas prices in past years...with prices in nat gas rising we could see eventual rising dividends as well. Buying this stock in this week will get the first dividend payout next month.

Here is my TA charts

There is nothing bearish in any of the charts.

In the P&F chart you see an interesting flag formation...currently using converging resistance and support borders of the triangle you have Support at about $14.90 and Resistance at about $15.40

The Upper right chart shows a nice positive diagonal drift in the share price...without there being a real breakout yet...though the BBwidth looks favourable for a sudden positive jump in slope...the Slow Sto looks great while the MACD is drifting sideways.

if you looked at that fundamental page there is a tight bid/ask range of 15.26/15.27

I will enter an BUY order for the start of tomorrow's trading day for

Bonavista Energy Corporation [TSX:BNP] for 500 shares @ $15.27/share

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  #33 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well, I could have gotten this at $15.20 as that is what it opened at but that was a low volume buy that lasted less than 10 minutes so I got it at my price of $15.27...and I am happy with that as the stock continued to rise and now sits at $15.36 and a month from now I can look forward to a dividend of about $0.07 x 500 = $35.00

Had a close call with LUN.V which opened at $5.16 only 4 cents above my stop-loss point but it has rallied to about $5.20 so hopefully it keeps going

Now I have another sector to investigate....Lumber prices are climbing....I will take a look and see what I can find there.

So far looks like it will be a good day today though MEI.V has taken a dip in early trading.,,,not serious though.

Good trading to you....

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  #34 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

First of ....Why Lumber??

You can see the nice rise in Lumber prices since 2009...there seems to be a resistance at about 370....with a huge resistance just short of 400...there is a channel now with support around 350 and resistance around 370.

Can someone comment on the chart of small/large traders and hedgers....it seems the prices of lumber are best when Larger traders rise and hedgers fall...why would this be???

Why interest in Western Forest Products Inc. [TSX:WEF]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Well it does have a quarterly dividend...but that is just bonus money.....you would buy this for the growth...look at the snapshot chart on that page.

From a FA point of view

Balance Sheet: shows no short term quarterly debt and about $88Million long term debt

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

The Income statement: shows pretty solid Operating Revenue of $240Million and Net revenue of between $14-35Million per quarter...yep that $88million debt looks pretty serviceable

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

What a series of BULLISH CHARTS...look at the P&F Chart....see how it had a HUGE resistance at $2.40...well that has finally been breached so NOW it is a HUGE support...the next serious resistance I think is around $3.40

As I said earlier there is not a Bear bone in those charts....maybe the CMF is falling a bit but that is easily cancelled by other bullish indicator.

It is 12:12MST right now....about 2 hours left before markets close

currently the Bid is $2.60 and the Ask is $2.61 with the last price at $2.60

For the sake of a penny, I will enter a Limit Buy order for $4000 shares at $2.61

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  #35 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well I had a good day today...I will post a summary of the end-of-trading-week numbers so as to see the state of the union.

BTO.TO gained $0.19 today
LUN.TO gained $0.01 "
MEI.V lost $0.08 "
BNP.TO gained $0.15 over my purchase price
WEF.TO stayed even til the end of the day from when I bought in at $2.61

Yep...nice day

I don't think I will look for more in the lumber industry...I think I will look in the Financial Sector for a Canadian bank first then another financial type stock next.

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  #36 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

this is the summary of my position as of Feb 21/2014

There are some successes and some losers in this portfolio but the proof to the pudding is that I am moving forward with positive overall returns. In 2 weeks we have gained about 0.5% so far and that is what I look for. I would be naive to expect everything to be a success from the get-go.

I am not worried about Linden Mining...I have a stop loss to protect myself and I could have called the Stop-loss today but it was for a minute or less touching $5.12 on low volume so I will pretend my order did not trip and perhaps it will recover...if not the stop-loss will trip on Monday...no loss...I'll give it a chance.

Manitok Energy is in consolidation now...The problem with that stock pick is that I bought it late in it's run

I should have got it at (#1) arrow in the first week of January or at the pinch on the first week of Feb but I had not started this trading log then.

See how the price was above the upper Bollie for several days (#2)....well that is not normal to be that way for more than 3-5 days without a pullback into the BB envelop .... Now it has fallen to a support at $2.60 (#3)....stock prices in consolidation tend to drift back to its 20daySMA (#4)

I will wait to see what happens at the next BB pinch...though there still is a hope the current one is not over as the BBwidth is not neative slope yet and the slow sto is still over 80...I don't expect it to plummet

The good news is B2Gold....nice gain of almost $1000 so far

BTO.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this stock is still bullish...no reason to sell at this point...as long as the price of Gold continues to inch upward this stock should do fine.

I am half way to spending my seed money...I am happy with these picks so far.

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  #37 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Basically it comes from my expectations of each company

Manitock Energy [TSXV:MEI] is coming through a reorganization of its upper echelon...and Oil prices have been high since the start of the year.

MEI.V - Graphical P&F - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!.05!!2!20]&pref=G

You can see from this chart that after a long climb the stock faltered at a resistance at $2.85 and fell to a support at $2.60....this is the end of that 3 month run and now we are into consolidation as I showed in the previous post. If you look at that chart again the Slow Sto is still great, the MACD is showing higher highs and the BBwidth may fall showing a tightening of the Bollies. During that tightening the price will drift to the 20daySMA...

It is not definite that the run is truly over yet....this may be a rest...since while the Slow Sto and MACD are definitely in a small negative slope the BBwidth has not changed to negative YET...you need all 3 to be negative to say the run is over...but I fully expect it to be over and the price should move sideways as the 20daySMA climbs to meet it.

Lund Mining [TSX:Lun] is slightly different. First of all, the base metals that are this mine's commodity are not in a bullish price rise....they look to be getting better but not in a bullish way.

LUN.TO - Graphical P&F - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!0.1!!2!20]&pref=G

in this chart the pattern of this company's price is to challenge the resistance at $5.40 - $5.50 then fall back quite a way....in this case it would be to its support at $4.80 - $4.90 or worse.

So why have I picked this stock in the first place??? Because the reward of breaching that resistance is so great...passing a resistance that has been so solid for a few years would certainly be bullish move.

With the stop-loss placed where it is....I am giving the stock another chance at breaching that resistance while protecting myself if it does not.

I use Limit Stop-loss orders every time I am willing to sell a stock. Say I have a 30-50% gain...I want to preserve as much of that gain as possible. However, if the stock is destined for higher gains...I want that gain too....so I will establish a limit stop-loss point about 5% behind a price level and then if the price of the stock advances then I will adjust that stop loss level upward as well. At some point the price will fall and trigger a sale and I will have new money to invest in something else. By doing it this way, I make the sale without any emotional involvement in pulling the trigger.

Why do I use a Limit Stop-loss and not a plain old Stop-loss? Let us say I have a stock at $7.00

In a Stop-loss order (set at $6.70) a margin order to sell the stock at the best price is generated if the stock plummets past this point. The "best price" could be anything....perhaps $5.00. My experience is that drastic price falls are usually followed by a pullback...that "best price" is not necessarily the best price after a plummet.

In a Limit Stop-loss (set at $6.65 - $6.70) I set a range of values that I will sell at. If the stock falls slowly into this range then all my shares will be sold at an acceptable price to me....if it plummets through this range my stock will not sell...I will then have an opportunity to investigate the cause of the drop. I may decide the drop is real and then sell down at the bottom....or I may wait for the pullback then sell....but that is my decision...not something decided for me.

See you Monday

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  #38 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have been on this site now for 2 weeks and it is a pleasant chnge from what I am used to, It is nice to present a coherent thought without battling trolls as on other sites I have tried.

I know this is an American site by and large and largely a day trading bunch from the sounds of it and of course as you can see from these posts of mine I am neither. It would be nice if there could be other posters bringing up companies that they are interested in and we could discuss various aspects of the company. As you can see I am not married to just charting (though I believe I have a good suite of charts and use traditional indicators in somewhat non-traditional ways) I am also into doing Fundamental DD on a company to try to explain some of the surges/plummets seen in the charts and anticipate them in the future.

Many in the TA/FA camps adopt an us versus them attitude and I think this is myopic. I believe the more angles that a problem can be viewed, the more chances at deciding the solution. I have learned a lot through this approach and have some experience with this with my brother.

At first he was very anti-charting. He prefered to dig into the news...serious news not fluff media pumps. He has a better grasp of politics of governments/companies and sectors than I do...I paid little attention to this analysis figuring that everything is reflected the current price movement. Well that is true...but I found that his insight was pretty good for the future and I could then look for confirming evidence of his feelings in my charts.

After a while he came to appreciate my charting approach and our weekly 2 hour skype meetings were very interesting...He would dig out stocks that I would never look out and told me to "cast my bones" over them...hahaha....this synergy between the two of us has been quite fruitful.

I would hope that something like that could happen here...many eyes...many approaches with a common goal.

Eventually word of mouth will attract more Canadian traders....Even American traders...I welcome you too if you want a different opinion on an American company not trading in Canada. It is a little more trouble with European stocks as I don't have all my charting tools available to me....but again we all learn something.

Good trading...hope to hear from you...tomorrow I will probably decide on my Canadian bank...Toronto Dominion Band [TSX:TD], Royal Bank of Canada [TSX:RY] and Bank of Montreal [TSX:BMO] and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce [TSX:CM] are in the running so far...all good stocks and available on the NYSE...we shall see how I can arrive at a decision,,,

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  #39 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
deaddog's Avatar
Posts: 827 since May 2013
Thanks: 125 given, 2,110 received

A good start to your journal.
I haven't contrbuted any thing because I didn't want to hijack your journal by adding a different point of view. It looks like you have a good method that works for you.

I'm looking forward to you completing your porfolio and observing how you manage your trades.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #40 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I like your contributions to date and I appreciate you not wanting to hijack my journal.

I suppose there is a fine line between a hijack and discussion.

It looks like you have a good method that works for you.

Yes I do have a method, I developed it over 20 years of playing around with charts. Then when I "thought" I knew what I was doing I began trading for real a little over 12 years ago....then I retired with investment income was my sole income....still is!!!

I thought this was easy money...then came the crash of 2008-2009 and I lost 45% of my holdings....what a lesson!!!

My approach has seriously changed since those days...my current suite of charts (there are a couple I have not showed yet.) It used to be that I looked only at charts...good for short swings....not so good for longer swings/holds.
I put money into a lot of crap back then...thinking like many chartists do that Fundamentals are useless. Well this is true for daytraders...anything can happen in a couple of days....but longer holds require stable companies so a basic knowledge of company fundamentals is essential to pick long term winners (this is still a work in progress for me but I am getting better.

I do not mind intelligent questioning of my approach.........I only ask that if you disagree and have an alternative approach that it is described....by this we all learn....and if we still disagree or I don't think it fits in with what I do....then we agree to disagree and life moves on.

You will find that I am not afraid to make a prediction of short term movements (1-10 days) based on my charting techniques. My batting average is pretty good IMHO and it is the only way for you to see that what I am doing makes sense.

you will recall that on Feb 13 we were talking about TCM and I made this comment

But as I said I think the future will be told in 5-7 business days and I wish you luck on it.

well that was a 8 business days ago and you see this chart now

Well this stock improved while in consolidation ... see how it tracks the 20day SMA during this time....in this case it literally tracked the SMA more often it oscillates above and below.

Now the BB's are tight and it looks like a breakout is in progress...but is it??? That 200 day SMA looks like it is a resistance...also it is above the upper bollie.

The Slow Sto looks only OK...the MACD has barely moved....usually these 2 indices lead a breakout as it did on Jan 13....so I would be wary if this was the only chart I used that this "breakout" might be a head fake ...not for all time necessarily but this time maybe.

so I look at more charts for evidence

Looking at these charts I see

the CMF is still bearish but improving: Mildly Bearish
the RSI(30) is showing a sign of improving but is basically flat: Neutral
The ADX DI+/- is definitely showing bullish but one bullish move does not establish a trend: Mildly Bullish
in the next chart I see
the Ichimoku has improved considerably since my last comment: bullish
the OnBal Volume has an uptick but is still pretty flat: neutral
The CCI is bullish and looking fine

So cancelling out opposites I end up with a feeling that this is mildly bullish.

So my conclusion would be:

It looks good for a bullish run overall but I would expect a pullback from the current position early next week to within the Bollie envelope....

finally if you look at this final P&F chart


Here you see the price HAS risen to a resistance...

So while this is looking more bullish...I would expect a pullback but could attack that resistance again ...if it breaks $3.30...then it would be a clear bullish run....it would be a watch if I did not own...a hold if I did own this stock

We shall see how it unfolds this week

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March 21, 2015

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