Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
Updated: Views / Replies:30,047 / 609
Created: by Underexposed Attachments:696

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 696  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #371 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TDWaterhouse
Favorite Futures: stocks (long term)
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 180 given, 777 received


tturner86 View Post
It's paper, not cash.

Of course, the Fantasy portfolio is based on paper gains....I have yet to see a Fantasy portfolio that is based on real money.

This is not Simulated other than the fact the the orders I place in this portfolio are not ACTUALLY executed. I gave my rules to Mike as far as how I decide if a trade was executed. Sometimes I make real purchases of varying size in my REAL portfolio's based on of the stocks that I mention here. The size of such purchases may be bigger or smaller depending on my REAL needs.

I doubt anyone on this website (I cannot see your journal so have no comment on your approach) lays out exactly every trade in the detail I do, and explain why they make such trades at least the day before they are executed.

The object of this journal: Is to display the fact that it IS possible to be a long term trader in today's stock market... the Bank of Toronto in this fantasy portfolio has been there since Feb/14...I have no desire to sell it .... in reality and in this fantasy portfolio...in fact if anything I would add to this solid stock.

the secondary objective is to show HOW I use Technical Analysis combined with how I also use my Limited understanding of Fundamental analysis to make long term investments and swings trades.

Third objective is to discuss the new approach to TA that I have researched and are now bringing to a useful stage.

As can be seen by the twice weekly updates on this as-real-as-possible fantasy portfolio, I am not frightened of blowing an account. I don't use Stop-Loss or Limited Stop-Loss orders UNLESS I want to sell a stock...not to protect myself after buying one. I use those orders strictly to give a stock a chance to make more money (even losers that I give up on) and then I trail (manually) such orders until they are filled.

As can be seen by my twice weekly updates I have made no attempt to camouflage or hide my losses during the last 9 months....this fantasy portfolio is as close to real trading as possible.

One thing that annoys me to no end is in the past when I have been poked repeatedly about my lack of money management or targets. I am not a frightened day trader (no offense to experienced day-traders intended) who have little technical skills and are paranoid about losing their account because they leave their trades active overnight.

I have no targets for my purchases because in a stock held for months/years it is impossible to predict how high a stock price will rise or fall. I may have resistance/support levels that I pay attention too but those are not necessarily targets.

This journal is about mainly TA and how I use it. I am discussing as clearly as possible what I do and it is a lot more than drawing trend lines (trend lines are fine but there is a lot more information available to make decisions).

I welcome questions and discussion of what I do regarding TA. But I will not have this journal hijacked as it was in the past with subjects that have no interest to me.....my journal.....my rules.

I hope this is clear now..... 'nough said on this subject.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Underexposed for this post:
 
  #372 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,354 given, 83,237 received

Why not trade it cash? Are you trading something else cash but not posting it?


Sent from my phone

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #373 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TDWaterhouse
Favorite Futures: stocks (long term)
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 180 given, 777 received



Big Mike View Post
Why not trade it cash? Are you trading something else cash but not posting it?


Sent from my phone

My portfolio(s) in reality are a lot higher than $100,000. This is a trivial amount for me .... you cannot live 10 years with no other income on a poke of $100,000 and live a reasonable lifestyle.... if you disagree with that you live on a side income and not solely on income from stocks.

For the FINAL TIME , this is a fantasy portfolio....I have never hidden this fact at all....the trades made in this portfolio are as close to real as I can make it. Often they are made based on my real decisions though the volumes may be different.

I am tired of this conversation...If my content and style of this journal is a problem...I will leave for good....this is not a satisfying conversation for me, obviously...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Underexposed for this post:
 
  #374 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TDWaterhouse
Favorite Futures: stocks (long term)
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 180 given, 777 received

Ok....now that we have that out of the way...let us discuss something productive.

Those of you that seriously want to understand how I read a chart and how I use indicators will get a lot out of the following discussions.

My goal here is to:

1. Get you to think critically about how a chart/overlay/indicator works
2. Decide whether or not there is information from one indicator that adds to the information of another indicator, thereby making a situation easier to understand
3. (for my benefit) field a discussion each post, that furthers the understanding of the topic. This is done by questions/comments from you, that you want me to comment on. They can be something you see in the charts that might be meaningful or a question where you have found an example that runs contrary to what I am suggesting.

This is positive dialog, I learn as well as you since the best way to really learn something is to teach it.

Another goal is to try to hammer out rules that I can use with my new chart form. As I have said, the purpose of this new chart with the modified Trigger chart and Quad analysis is to be a mega watch list.... something that will draw my attention to a stock or index or commodity... any interesting vehicle that has data consisting of volume/open/hi/lo/close data.... When I am alerted I will do my normal 3-4 full meal chart analysis to arrive at a final decision.

***************************************************************************

Our first discussion will be on the use of BBWidth indicator. Why is this indicator important? For me it is the trigger for many events. But rather than just give you a grocery list of features, I want you to see the thought process that you might use to evaluate charts. This will probably be the only discussion on charting that is not limited to having you memorizing patterns... rather you will hopefully be able to understand patterns.

To start, I will present 4 BBWidth charts. I won't identify them yet. What I want you to do is study them and think of these questions:

1. Can you figure out which stocks are cheap/expensive???
2. Is there significant differences between them that give you a clue as to which country the company is based?
3. Most of all, what are the interesting features common to all charts that you think are worth investigating further?
4. Can you suggest which chart indicates a stock undergoing a major event? Is it Bullish or Bearish

Here are the charts:

Chart 1

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Chart 2


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Chart 3


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Chart 4


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).




You can just think of those questions if you want, comments are welcome too.


I will not make another post here until the evening....about 12 hours from now. Aside from answering any questions, I will be making one or two posts on just these charts...you will see how I have evolved in looking at charts

Good Trading

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Underexposed for this post:
 
  #375 (permalink)
Mate
Budapest, Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: TopstepTrader
Favorite Futures: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 632 given, 1,544 received

Thank you for the challange, and lessons. Great stuff, please keep that in mind I am totally newbie. So here is my observation:
1. Can you figure out which stocks are cheap/expensive???
No way that I can guess. If I have to do it because there is a gun at my hand, I would say, all the stocks are cheap, if the BB width expension is great.:
- Chart 1 aug. I guess it is cheap, november getting very expensive
- Chart 2 mar. Cheap, than getting expensive
- Chart 3 mar. Cheap, than slow trend up with peaks
- Chart 4 big drop at march, than goes up

2. Is there significant differences between them that give you a clue as to which country the company is based?
- No way man I would say It could be guessable based on peak levels. There should be significant news, or data. In chart 3 there is 4 peak, meaning for me it could be the states, with GDP data... but really no experience on this

3. Most of all, what are the interesting features common to all charts that you think are worth investigating further?
- Chart 4 is not nice and steady for me
- Chart 3 giving a lots of decision point, to enter
- Chart 1 after a big correction I guess, and it should be developing now slowly, meaning ranging, so it could be
- Chart 2 I like it it is smooth
For my, chart 2, and chart 3

4. Can you suggest which chart indicates a stock undergoing a major event? Is it Bullish or Bearish
- Chart 1 bullish
- Chart 3 bearish

---
Please dont kill me on sight if it is totally stupidness...

Máté
Full time traderLive journal here
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to matevisky for this post:
 
  #376 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TDWaterhouse
Favorite Futures: stocks (long term)
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 180 given, 777 received


matevisky View Post
Please dont kill me on sight if it is totally stupidness...

I will start with your last statement first. Mate...I applaud your bravery. Your answer and comments are exactly what I had hoped for. You bring up points that I had not considered and you and others reading this will be the benefactors.

You are correct on several observations and clearly you are a beginner at understanding Technical Analysis... but if you continue doing this and studying my comments your learning curve will be quite short.

Let's look at your answers, the bolding is mine for emphasis


matevisky View Post
1. Can you figure out which stocks are cheap/expensive???

No way that I can guess. If I have to do it because there is a gun at my hand, I would say, all the stocks are cheap, if the BB width expension is great.:
- Chart 1 aug. I guess it is cheap, november getting very expensive
- Chart 2 mar. Cheap, than getting expensive
- Chart 3 mar. Cheap, than slow trend up with peaks
- Chart 4 big drop at march, than goes up

You are absolutely correct with your first statement. It is impossible to judge a stock's worth from this indicator.

That is good news...it means that the patterns we will ferret out will apply to all stocks, no matter how expensive. In this group there is a stock in the $1-$5 range and another over $1000 per share... the patterns are the same.

What you did wrong... is that you then placed a gun to your head and took pure guesses. Never do that. It is not that we don't make a guess at the end of an analysis.... But we make an "EDUCATED" guess. We apply out knowledge of past performance to make a decision. Such patterns do repeat...sometimes the are "head-fakes" a sports idiom where a ball carrier looks one way to confuse a tackler and runs in another direction... the same thing happens in Stock prices... indicators don't always give good information but there are ways to decide good information from the bad and ugly.... NEVER DEPEND ON A SINGLE INDICATOR or Chart OVERLAY. I believe this is why many traders dislike indicators. I hope to change that opinion here eventually.


matevisky View Post
2. Is there significant differences between them that give you a clue as to which country the company is based?

- No way man I would say It could be guessable based on peak levels. There should be significant news, or data. In chart 3 there is 4 peak, meaning for me it could be the states, with GDP data... but really no experience on this

Again you are correct. It does not matter what country the company has its chart in.

these examples that I posted include: an American stock, A Canadian Stock, a European Stock and a metal commodity.

Bollinger Band Width (BBWidth) applies to any data set that has an equal time period and a value that changes with time...it does not have to be price, it can be anything... a stock from any country, a commodity intra-day or EOD price even FOREX



matevisky View Post
3. Most of all, what are the interesting features common to all charts that you think are worth investigating further?
- Chart 4 is not nice and steady for me
- Chart 3 giving a lots of decision point, to enter
- Chart 1 after a big correction I guess, and it should be developing now slowly, meaning ranging, so it could be
- Chart 2 I like it it is smooth
For my, chart 2, and chart 3

No you are incorrect here. It is not an easy question to answer, however I will discuss this question in more detail in a few minutes


matevisky View Post
4. Can you suggest which chart indicates a stock undergoing a major event? Is it Bullish or Bearish
- Chart 1 bullish
- Chart 3 bearish

Actually you are correct in that Chart 3 is probably currently undergoing a major event right now.... However BBwidth cannot tell us whether it is a bullish or bearish event.... we need more information to decide that. BUT, just knowing that there is a major change that might take place would be very useful from a watch point of view.

WHAT ARE BOLLINGER BANDS?? and how do they relate to their companion indicator Bollinger Band width (BBWidth)

this is a quote showing how Bollinger Bands are calculatedBollinger Bands.
(Note: I will now call Bollinger Bands by their nicknames BB's or Bollies)

Bollinger Bands [ChartSchool]


Quoting 
SharpCharts Calculation

* Middle Band = 20-day simple moving average (SMA)
* Upper Band = 20-day SMA + (20-day standard deviation of price x 2)
* Lower Band = 20-day SMA - (20-day standard deviation of price x 2)

I strongly recommend reading StockCharts.com Chart School articles... In my opinion this is one of the strongest charting service on the internet.... their free service is excellent and can be enhanced through membership.

Here is an example of a Bollie overlay


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



You can see the dotted blue 20daySMA (simple moving average) and the solid blue lines above and below the dotted line.... each line is 2 standard deviation units from the 20 daySMA. They represent an envelope where one expects about 90% of the numbers used to construct the should lie within those boundries... if the price goes above or below those blue lines this is VERY significant...but we will discuss this further in coming posts.

BBWidth is related to the BB's by means of this calculation:

BBWidth = (UpperBB -LowerBB)/ 20daySMA x 100

So in words BBWidth equals the difference between the upper and lower BB's divided by the 20daySMA (sometimes called "the middle band) and multiplied by 100 to convert the number as a percentage.

SO... the BBwidth is related to the width of the BB's...dividing this number by the 20 daySMA and multiplying it by 100 normalizes the result between 0 - 100%

As the BBwidth gets larger....the bb's are spreading further apart. As the BBwidth gets smaller the bands are getting more narrow.

The Bollies are a measure of price volatility... the further apart the bb's are the more volatile the stock prices... the closer they are the more stable those prices have become.

We will talk about this in further detail later


WHAT ARE THE INTERESTING patterns in the BBWidth charts that I showed you.???? I will show WHAT I see in such a chart, that I would want to investigate further. There are many things to look at. I will use a different chart for each feature but you will see similar features in all the charts.

If I was presented with this type of chart for the first time this is what would go through my mind as I looked at them


Chart #1


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



This is VERY interesting. See how the chart tends to fall back to the same region before it zooms up again....sometimes it stays at this low level for a while...What is going on here? If you look at the other charts they all basically act in a similar manner...some more reproducible than others....can predictions be made on this pattern.

Maybe...maybe know....but this is worth checking out.

Chart #2


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What do these sudden rises mean? Can I use this knowledge?


Chart #3


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What is going on during these up and down slopes???

Chart #4


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What is happening when the tops are rounded like this? Is it bullish or bearish?


As you can see there are 4 major formations that jump out at me....What do they mean? and are they significant? Can I make decisions or draw inference from these observations.

I would then MATE these BBwidth charts to their corresponding main charts. Interesting observations to follow

Conclusion:

This may seem silly to many of you. However it is only by observation of patterns and then investigating what they mean can you really understand what an indicator can do for you.

More on this in the next post.

Comments like MATE's are welcome

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Underexposed for this post:
 
  #377 (permalink)
Mate
Budapest, Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: TopstepTrader
Favorite Futures: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 632 given, 1,544 received

Why is it useful for me?

Thank you for your kind words. I will do the study today, but quick markup from my side. My biggest issue with trading is to wait. So I am grabing every moment and opportunity to teach myself to better to wait, instead of jump in. Every indication, every little piece of advice which is teaching me patient, is helping me to improve. Just a little example. Chart 1 BBWidth testing back all the time the same level. Great observation. Great stuff, and pattern, which is good to observe. Great NOGO decion on that stock till I dont see the stuff what She likes to do.
And overall ofc always good thing to learn, but the purpose the way, how you are selecting, how you are analyzing, and waiting for a perfect moment like a predator, is amazed me! So this is my extra takeaway from this forum! Thank you

Máté
Full time traderLive journal here
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to matevisky for this post:
 
  #378 (permalink)
Elite Member
Mumbai, India
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Favorite Futures: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
 
iqgod's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,659 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,312 given, 2,719 received


matevisky View Post
Thank you for your kind words. I will do the study today, but quick markup from my side. My biggest issue with trading is to wait. So I am grabing every moment and opportunity to teach myself to better to wait, instead of jump in

....


I want to tell you this:

It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.

- Jesse Livermore

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

My July 2017 Challenge Journal Please read and Press Thanks on This Post

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to iqgod for this post:
 
  #379 (permalink)
Mate
Budapest, Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: TopstepTrader
Favorite Futures: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 632 given, 1,544 received


Underexposed View Post
Chart #1


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



This is VERY interesting. See how the chart tends to fall back to the same region before it zooms up again....sometimes it stays at this low level for a while...What is going on here? If you look at the other charts they all basically act in a similar manner...some more reproducible than others....can predictions be made on this pattern.

Maybe...maybe know....but this is worth checking out.

Chart #2


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What do these sudden rises mean? Can I use this knowledge?


Chart #3


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What is going on during these up and down slopes???

Chart #4


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What is happening when the tops are rounded like this? Is it bullish or bearish?


As you can see there are 4 major formations that jump out at me....What do they mean? and are they significant? Can I make decisions or draw inference from these observations.

BBWidth indicator for ninja:
Bollinger BandWidth indicator. - NinjaTrader Support Forum

Chart 1: More down, bigger the explosion. Thus, if we are right with the explosion direction, than we can hold the trade as long as we didnt get a peak. Meaning no need to move the SL, just w8 the outcome...

Chart 2: sudden rise = breakout. It could be fake, this will never tell you it is a fake or not, or the first direction is good or not. Just that it is doing something. Thus we could get better entry if the breakout starting with a fake breakout - pullback...

Chart 3: consolidation will come. Market will not move, tired. Also it could be a good hint: take care after a big trend always a correction is coming. If you dont want to sit through the correction you trend lover bastard, it is a time to scale out

Chart 4: Hey I am doing nothing here just a usual stuff. Most probably slowly trending up or trending down, after a big move. I will not give you great pullback to enter, just small ones. If you looking for an entry here, most probably I will kick you out during the next move... go fish to somewhere else!

(guessing, after some chart reading...)

Máté
Full time traderLive journal here
Reply With Quote
 
  #380 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,638 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,763 given, 11,120 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Underexposed View Post
I will start with your last statement first. Mate...I applaud your bravery. Your answer and comments are exactly what I had hoped for. You bring up points that I had not considered and you and others reading this will be the benefactors.

You are correct on several observations and clearly you are a beginner at understanding Technical Analysis... but if you continue doing this and studying my comments your learning curve will be quite short.

Let's look at your answers, the bolding is mine for emphasis



You are absolutely correct with your first statement. It is impossible to judge a stock's worth from this indicator.

That is good news...it means that the patterns we will ferret out will apply to all stocks, no matter how expensive. In this group there is a stock in the $1-$5 range and another over $1000 per share... the patterns are the same.

What you did wrong... is that you then placed a gun to your head and took pure guesses. Never do that. It is not that we don't make a guess at the end of an analysis.... But we make an "EDUCATED" guess. We apply out knowledge of past performance to make a decision. Such patterns do repeat...sometimes the are "head-fakes" a sports idiom where a ball carrier looks one way to confuse a tackler and runs in another direction... the same thing happens in Stock prices... indicators don't always give good information but there are ways to decide good information from the bad and ugly.... NEVER DEPEND ON A SINGLE INDICATOR or Chart OVERLAY. I believe this is why many traders dislike indicators. I hope to change that opinion here eventually.



Again you are correct. It does not matter what country the company has its chart in.

these examples that I posted include: an American stock, A Canadian Stock, a European Stock and a metal commodity.

Bollinger Band Width (BBWidth) applies to any data set that has an equal time period and a value that changes with time...it does not have to be price, it can be anything... a stock from any country, a commodity intra-day or EOD price even FOREX




No you are incorrect here. It is not an easy question to answer, however I will discuss this question in more detail in a few minutes



Actually you are correct in that Chart 3 is probably currently undergoing a major event right now.... However BBwidth cannot tell us whether it is a bullish or bearish event.... we need more information to decide that. BUT, just knowing that there is a major change that might take place would be very useful from a watch point of view.

WHAT ARE BOLLINGER BANDS?? and how do they relate to their companion indicator Bollinger Band width (BBWidth)

this is a quote showing how Bollinger Bands are calculatedBollinger Bands.
(Note: I will now call Bollinger Bands by their nicknames BB's or Bollies)

Bollinger Bands [ChartSchool]



I strongly recommend reading StockCharts.com Chart School articles... In my opinion this is one of the strongest charting service on the internet.... their free service is excellent and can be enhanced through membership.

Here is an example of a Bollie overlay


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



You can see the dotted blue 20daySMA (simple moving average) and the solid blue lines above and below the dotted line.... each line is 2 standard deviation units from the 20 daySMA. They represent an envelope where one expects about 90% of the numbers used to construct the should lie within those boundries... if the price goes above or below those blue lines this is VERY significant...but we will discuss this further in coming posts.

BBWidth is related to the BB's by means of this calculation:

BBWidth = (UpperBB -LowerBB)/ 20daySMA x 100

So in words BBWidth equals the difference between the upper and lower BB's divided by the 20daySMA (sometimes called "the middle band) and multiplied by 100 to convert the number as a percentage.

SO... the BBwidth is related to the width of the BB's...dividing this number by the 20 daySMA and multiplying it by 100 normalizes the result between 0 - 100%

As the BBwidth gets larger....the bb's are spreading further apart. As the BBwidth gets smaller the bands are getting more narrow.

The Bollies are a measure of price volatility... the further apart the bb's are the more volatile the stock prices... the closer they are the more stable those prices have become.

We will talk about this in further detail later


WHAT ARE THE INTERESTING patterns in the BBWidth charts that I showed you.???? I will show WHAT I see in such a chart, that I would want to investigate further. There are many things to look at. I will use a different chart for each feature but you will see similar features in all the charts.

If I was presented with this type of chart for the first time this is what would go through my mind as I looked at them


Chart #1


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



This is VERY interesting. See how the chart tends to fall back to the same region before it zooms up again....sometimes it stays at this low level for a while...What is going on here? If you look at the other charts they all basically act in a similar manner...some more reproducible than others....can predictions be made on this pattern.

Maybe...maybe know....but this is worth checking out.

Chart #2


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What do these sudden rises mean? Can I use this knowledge?


Chart #3


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What is going on during these up and down slopes???

Chart #4


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What is happening when the tops are rounded like this? Is it bullish or bearish?


As you can see there are 4 major formations that jump out at me....What do they mean? and are they significant? Can I make decisions or draw inference from these observations.

I would then MATE these BBwidth charts to their corresponding main charts. Interesting observations to follow

Conclusion:

This may seem silly to many of you. However it is only by observation of patterns and then investigating what they mean can you really understand what an indicator can do for you.

More on this in the next post.

Comments like MATE's are welcome

Really interesting work on the Bollinger width. I've used it before, but it's been a while, and I'll have to come back to this post when I can read it in more detail. This is a very interesting post. Thanks for it.

Bob.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to bobwest for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
FB2012 Friday Stock Day Trading Journal FB2012 Trading Journals 56 May 4th, 2014 01:03 PM
trading Canadian exchanges ChartTrader175 Stocks and ETFs Trading 11 February 28th, 2014 05:04 PM
PuraVida's Stock Swing Journal puravida Trading Journals 21 April 7th, 2013 10:35 AM
Strider's stock trading journal jmjstrider Elite Trading Journals 9 March 2nd, 2011 05:17 AM
Alex123 Stock Day Trading Journal alex123 Elite Trading Journals 40 October 10th, 2010 03:02 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:13 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-17 in 0.35 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 107.20.115.174