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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #351 (permalink)
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Recovery at LAST!!!

well 2 days later things have reversed....now instead of being only $400+ in the black I am now $3000+ to the good.


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I learned a long while ago if you pick solid stocks in the first case then they won't go to wallpaper on you.

I am not so naive to think that crisis over...all is well. One up tick does not change a trend so...I will still be on the fence with the cash and won't buy anything more until things sort themselves out.

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This chart shows Gold backing away from the abyss at $1180 but it is currently stumbling at passing $1250...no direction there for sure yet.

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So the TSX is rallying...is the correction over??

Yeah I have been wondering about that...I made a nice 2 day gain on Thursday/Friday...not enough to wipe out all the profit losses of the last 6 weeks but breathing room nonetheless.

So let us look at the S&P/TSX Composite index now.


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I find it interesting that the two previous weak supports in dotted green lines may be now serving as resistance/supports NOW...they are not perfect .... you have to allow a little slop in those predictions of support/resistance , especially when they are weak. But right now there is a framework there to consider

I have penciled in a new resistance band that is possible if the rise keeps on going between 14400 - 14550... that may seem to be a broad guess but the volatility of this index is such that it could pass through this in a day if we are on a role...I doubt it will though...I would be happy if it got stuck in the middle for now


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Now this chart is FINALLY showing some hope for the future. I showed on the chart that a stock/index that stays below the lower Bollie only a short time (3-5 days normally) before reentering the Bollie envelope.

Does that mean all is well when it does??? Not necessarily so....... you have to consult the index charts below.

you can see on Sept 22 when this happened there was no change to the Slow Sto/MACD/BBwidth.... the first two still had declining slopes and the latter's rise was unbroken.

This indicates the fall was simply resting.

Now look at current Slow Sto/MACD/BBwidth trends.... while not 100% established yet the Slow Sto looks to be breaking through 20 soon....the MACD has flatlined and if it rises this will confirm a bottom ....the BBwidth has already showed a solid change of direction.

So... this is the bottom ? Crisis is over?............ not really.....

What usually happens when a run is over (applies to a bullish run too) is that the values will tend to return to the 20daySMA ... once it arrives there...the values will oscillate around the 20daySMA until the BBwidth falls to a level where normal breakouts occur (ie. the Bollies get tight again)... that would be a BBwidth value between 1-3.

Now that would be the normal procedure... but it could happen that the fall catches a second wind and this could be only a rest.... with the MACD only flatlined....that is a distinct possibility.

So this could be just a rest


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In this chart things are better but only marginally so.... the CMF is still bearish by being stuck in that mud. The RSI is still mildly bearish as it could easily dive back in the mud again (but it looks a lot better than a couple of days ago. The DI+/- is only mildly bearish as there is a mild convergence between the red and green lines.


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This chart is still bearish on all counts. Despite the rise of late the Ichimoku thin red/blue lines are not converging... at least they have flatlined. The OnBal Vol is still bearish as well as the CCI.

Conclusion

the consensus is decidedly bearish at this point. We may drift to the 20daySMA and at this point I would willingly take that.... worse case is we are just resting before further declines....I don't think this will happen...I think we will hopefully drift sideways hopefully with a slight positive slope..... the 20DaySMA well come to us...not the reverse.

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  #353 (permalink)
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My research


I have said on occasion that I work on small research projects regarding Stock TA.

I am currently fine tuning a process for updating a WATCH list as well as all of my holdings and create a new type of chart...I have not seen this type of chart used anywhere else so maybe I have invented something.

I use Excel for data collection and processing and currently can gather the data and produce this chart in 2-3 seconds. I have it working for only a single stock currently but know how to change the macro to cycle through multi-stock tickers and fill their appropriate worksheets...eventually having a summary page of everything so I can see it all at a glance.

Here is a sample of my chart that I get for Toronto Dominion Bank. Each arrow is 10 days of data so you can see the values at different points in time. The circle simply indicates the position of the previous last arrow so you know how much the data changed.


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Before you ask...no I will not go into details as to how I do this...I hope you understand. But I will entertain questions/comments on its usefulness and if you want a chart for a specific stock I would be happy to do it.

Kind of fun doing this....I have more ideas on what to do with this data.... giving me flashbacks to my programing days of 10-12 years ago.


EDIT: That stock symbol should have been [TSX:TD].... stupid finger/brain fart


Last edited by Underexposed; October 20th, 2014 at 12:17 AM.
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  #354 (permalink)
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hahahaha...well clearly my new type of chart is underwhelming everyone, from this response

I have never been on a website where there was so many lurkers on my threads.

But that is ok...it makes sense to me

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Underexposed View Post
hahahaha...well clearly my new type of chart is underwhelming everyone, from this response

I have never been on a website where there was so many lurkers on my threads.

But that is ok...it makes sense to me

Talk more about US equities

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  #356 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Talk more about US equities

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

really???....that is not the name of my Journal.

My comment was more on the type of chart I have developed.... I am not complaining about the number of readers...from the looks of it I get almost 50-70 lurkers per day and I would guess most are Canadians or interested in Canadian stocks or love the style of my prose or whatever.

I talk about American stocks on other threads where it is more appropriate ... and where the silence is equally deafening.

Anyway, I really like the look of the chart I have developed and am steadily improving the macro to the point I will be able to update about 30 stocks or more in about a minute. I have not been able to test the limits of EXCEL in this regard...but I will be able to in another week or so....it is a part time thing and I am having to re-educate myself in VBA

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Comparison of established charts to new one.

Well I still have a ways to go until this new charting method in Excel becomes automated for updating a multitude of charts simultaneously. My VBA is a bit rusty and I am having to relearn a lot of it.

However, for single stock analysis it is working fine. I have made a minor change or two...mostly in formatting for the data for the chart in a generic way ...paving the way for the multi charts.

But in the mean time, I thought I would show my "trigger" chart and the new chart that I have developed to show you how it pans out.

Lakeshore Gold


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The circle at the end of the arrows shows the last update position. This allows you to see how much has changed from one update to another.

the latest data is yesterday Oct 20.....the main trigger chart shows a breakout possibility and does not look too bad. HOWEVER, My new chart suggest bad things to come and advises I apply a Stop Limit Loss order

And I will do so.... setting the Limit Stop Loss from $0.99 - 0.95



Enbridge Income Fund


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This is a stock that I should have sold and Sept 18 in the new chart is when I shold of at least set a Limit Stop Loss. If I had updated it last Friday It would have said to probably set that Stop Loss sooner...

But this is now not back then and I did not have this chart developed at that time....it is now in the Falling Star zone and rising so I will leave well enough alone for now.

Toronto Dominion Bank


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The label show have been Sept 18/14 not Sept 17

I like how it gave the warning to set a Limit Stop Loss before it actually fell. But like ENF.TO....that was then and this is now...it looks like it will get better.....for now I will leave it alone


EnerCare Inc


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I love this....it gave me a indication to buy on Oct 8...just before the jump in price....it looked like a head fake when it fell back but while the Slow Sto fell and the MACD looked sad.....the BBWidth was flatlined and sure enough it caught fire

I should make another buy on this one perhaps...I will think about it for now.


So I am cautiously optimistic on this new chart idea of mine.

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I have considered EnerCare Inc [TSX:ECI] because of the last post and the chart there and I will show you the chart below.


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The stock price is above the upper Bollie for the previous 2 days so one expects that the price will pull back into the BB envelope in the next 1-3 days. In the new chart I created the circle highlighting the last data point is firmly in the bullish quadrant.

Now here is today's offering of the new chart

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(Note to self.... add the date so we can tell which date this chart represents)

You can see by comparing the two charts that the Trend has maintained roughly the same height, whereas the Interest has moved further to the right. So we are still in the bullish quadrant but with higher interest.

Now don't be concerned about the fact that the rest of the chart is not exactly the same. These arrow points represent data points that are 7 business days apart. So when you add a new data point you get a whole new chart...the important ones of course are the latest and the movement of them but the others show the route the stock took to get there.

IE: length of time it has been viewed as bullish, has it migrated between quadrants, degree of bull/bear...those are just some thoughts...I am sure I will see more as I examine more charts.


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So today you see the price has pulled back into the BB envelope as expected but there is little change to the Slow Sto/MACD and BBWidth

On looking at an intraday chart I see the price has fallen further to about $14.55

I shall now enter a LIMIT BUY for 500 Shares of ECI.TO at $14.50

We shall see how this turns out.

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  #359 (permalink)
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Well I was on the mark....actually it fell to $14.45 but rebounded to $14.56.


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Given the turmoil in Ottawa with the shootings on Parliament Hill it is understandable that the markets would be shaky today. I was well over 1.25% for the last two days but that got knocked back about to 0.34%.

Hopefully this event is a "one of" and we get back to normal tomorrow.

Here is the current status for the portfolio.

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It will be interesting to see if I make more money on Enercare

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If you like my journal, please give me a "Thanks" at this contest post.

https://futures.io/feedback-announcements/33355-october-trading-journal-contest-w-prizes-2.html#post439290

{Thanks for reading}


Last edited by Underexposed; October 23rd, 2014 at 01:13 AM.
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  #360 (permalink)
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Last post in this thread


This seems like an appropriate place to end this journal.

This week and the past one shows a comeback which hopefully would continue...here is the final status of this fantasy portfolio.


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If I have accomplished one thing it is to show that it is definitely possible to take a sum of money in an account and LONG TERM trade for a living.

If you are a newbie in trading consider long term trading over day trading... it is not necessarily a way to instant riches... but if it done properly and you choose your stocks wisely... Choosing the good and avoiding the bad and BUTT ugly. In my almost 11 years of trading I have never blown through an account and I lived off the returns of my accounts through the 2008-2009 financial crisis...you learn a lot through such an experience. I can leave my accounts for months at a time and not worry about losing all my investments...it gives you peace of mind IF you learn how to do it properly, that is. It makes me smile to see how paranoid some intra-day traders are about leaving their money in overnight...let alone for a month or more... they are simply gambling IMHO... not investing.

If you read this journal from top to bottom, you will get a feeling as to how I choose stocks, how to look at basic fundamentals, why I like solid dividend paying stocks over the next rocket performers.

Learn how to use Technical Analysis, I have tried to show you what I do to technically evaluate stocks. Is my way the only way....Hell no, there are lots of ways to skin that cat. But I do have a method and I HAVE NOT kept what I do in this regard a secret. IF there had been questions here regarding TA and I I use it, you would have learned a lot more.

I thrive on such interplay, I learn as much from such questions as you would from the answers I give. It is through such interaction on other websites that I have arrived at the TA I use today. The questions from others caused me to revisit beliefs that I long had...sometimes they were reinforced as I reviewed them...often they caused me to rethink what I was doing and I became stronger as a chartist and hence my questioner would benefit as well.

But there was no questions from you, the lurker.

It is like talking to the wall. I have MAYBE 5 people who even acknowledged with a thank you now and then over 9 months... That is nice from them but not satisfying to me.

So read the journal if you are interested...but I don't think many here are interested. I am very much a minority here on this site. I have invested almost 9 months here. One should feel they belong over that time period...But I don't

So those that have read this journal....thank you...it would have been nicer if you spoke up...but thanks for at least reading here.

But it is time to move on.

Good Trading

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