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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #341 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well sure enough the price dropped at the opening on low volume as can be seen in the attached chart





It rose to stabilize at $13.84 so I placed my Limit Buy order at this level and there was about 2000 shares traded so I assume my order for 1000 shares would have filled at that level.

Now we wait to see that breakout continue ....fingers crossed. Some may wonder why I don't put in a stop-loss at this point. I don't usually do so on breakouts...I am pretty confident about the direction of this stock....I use limit stop losses usually when I want to sell and I give the price a chance to run while trailing a stop-loss as it does....or I use it when there has been a bad fall and I want out but will play a pullback while it lasts. Doing this takes the emotion out of selling....in this case I first of all believe in the direction but secondly I don't want a short term downward spike to sell my shares prematurely.

Good Trading

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  #342 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

KLS....{sigh}

Well I still have a lot to learn when it comes to swing trades

I had a great idea for one with Kelso Technologies as can be seen in this post from last week

https://futures.io/trading-journals/30636-underexposed-canadian-stock-journal-34.html#post439226

the problem was that it gapped at the opening and I could not get my order filled and it gapped 2/3 of the way to my target. Well that was too high for me to chase as you can see I thought it was too close to a massive resistance so the reward was not worth the risk.... so I thought





Here is the new chart....so much for not chasing....that massive resistance was jello and it smashed right through it. A significant derailment of hazardous goods in Saskatchewan has not hurt their cause in Canada (I know in the USA you have more problems that this is not on your radar).

You will note that I have still drawn a line red as it is a resistance...well the end of the day has not arrived and the price may fall below this line....if it stays above it then it will really be breached.





Well the Slow Sto/MACD/BBWidth show they are full on bullish

However, now note above that the last 3 candles are above the upper Bollinger band..... they won't stay there. There will be a pullback within the next day or two. July 28 shows what I am talking about.

I see a resistance at $7.00 a little clearer than in the P&F chart.

For long term I would like to see it breach that resistance....I think it will fall back if it is reached.





Well the CMF has improved but considering the rate of the price rise I am not all that impressed...Mildly bullish so far. The RSI is also mildly bullish but the ADX DI+/- is full on bullish as the green is bullishly diverging from the red





The Ichimoku looks great...no problem breaching the green cloud....so far any way ... but even if it pullback as expected...the clouds fall away so it should be fine and the thin blue line so far is outracing the red. The indicators below are bullish

Conclusion

I have always liked Kelso Technologies [TSX:KLS]. I like their product which is a major improvement on railway tanker safety which will be applied eventually to all tankers new and upgraded. This is necessary with the increase of moving oil by rail.

I believe that there is a pullback coming in the next coming days. If it breaches $7.00 it is a definite buy...until then I will wait....Wish I had chased it when I had the chance though. But now I don't buy approaching a resistance...especially in these market times.

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  #343 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

mid week status Oct8/14


well nice to see a turnaround...so far this week anyway.

Enercare Corp [TSX:ECI] certainly has been a good call...this is not a swing....this is long term...making about $700 in the week is a nice start

here is the status for this week so far.


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  #344 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

KLS pullback

well I was right in the last post on KLS. That red resistance held up and the price pulled back below the line



this chart is based on either closing intra-day values or EOD...at EOD it is cast in concrete.

You can see how you must look for a confirmation before you jump the gun. If I depended only on a P&F chart I would have lost on the pullback.




You also see the warning given by the price being above the upper Bollie....it is still there so I expect a further pullback until it gains the inside of the BB envelope. Once inside the envelope it may catch a second wind and keep climbing...travel sideways as a consolidation phase or drift in a negative consolidation.

I think I have covered the bases so what does this mean??? If you hold the stock I would keep holding or set a Limit stop loss to protect profits if you were luckier than I and caught the stock before the rise. Otherwise it is a watch.... I still like breaching $7.00 before buying back in but now this resistance at $6.70 may cause me to buy back in if it were breached.... but I fully expect $6.70 to hold for now and a further pullback to come.

You don't see this use of Bollinger bands in any published document to my knowledge. I discovered this myself after years of researching charts. It is a VERY useful tool...I share it with you - the reader of this journal

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  #345 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

KLS pullback

It is roughly 1/2 way through the trading day and here is the chart for KLS





As predicted the share price is now on the lower BB and trying to breach that $6.70 resistance. But will it be successful on this try or fall slowly in the coming days?

You cannot trust one chart completely on this...so far this chart looks fine...we are back in the BB fold but struggling to rise above it again....the MACD/SlowSto and BBWidth looks fine. I would not worry about the curl of the Slow Sto at this point...it is embedded in the bullish region....you don't ignore that curl but by itself it does not mean much....yet.

Looking at the upper Bollie itself though...despite the fact the BBWidth is so far a powerful rise I see a slight change in slope to the upper bollie itself. Again...nothing to pull the plug on but if I had this stock (and I didn't get it Damn!) I would make sure that Limit Stop-loss probably like $6.40 to $6.45 was in place.

But you need more than just one chart...you need a consensus ere is my sentiment chart





warning signs are....

the CMF is falling back into the mud while the price rises

The ADX DI+/- has a slight convergence for the first time in this run

the RSI has gone flat

Now the Ichimoku chart



See how the upper edge of the green cloud is acting as a support which was tested today
See the down tick in the On bal Vol
the CCI is still fine.

Conclusion

It is on watch still and if I owned it the stop limit loss would be set as a precaution. (see above)

Individually these indicators don't mean much right now....but they are almost all indicating some caution. It is this consensus that twigs you to the fact that maybe....maybe this run is over for now.

the time for long term money comes after it really passes that resistance at $6.70....not before. If you already owned the stock passing $6.70 would be a sign to add more stock...while accepting that it may be over otherwise.

Using a limit stop loss takes the emotion out of the sale if it happens.

Good trading

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  #346 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Status Oct 10/14

Well so much for a positive week...things were going great until this last 200 point drop for the TSX today.

Sept/Oct is not a good period in general for stock...I hope it turns around soon...not much fun right now




my two stocks of late are performing reasonably as expected though today was a downer for ECI.to with a loss of most of the gains for the week. Whereas KLS.TO after a massive drop recovered to a a mere $0.05 loss...Still stuck below that $6.70 resistance...the recover from the $0.30 drop though is hopeful.

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  #347 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

the fall of the TSX composite Index

Well it does not have the feeling of the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 yet but man it certainly is not fun and could get worse.

Here is the Point and Figure chart for the TSE Composite Index





As you can see the index is dropping like a stone in water...places where I would think of as supports have been breezed by like falling through paper. The dotted green lines are such weak supports in the future...I don't believe they will stop this train wreck.

13500 looks like it might slow the decent but that is only said with fingers crossed. The really strong support comes between 12800 - 12950...Yikes!!!!

look at this "trigger chart"





You see how clear the fall started at the narrow BB squeeze in the upper circle. The dotted green line should have been a solid support but other than a brief 2 day hiccup that support fell easily

The Slow Sto is as low as it can go....zero is zero.

the MACD and BBwidth showed a little lessening in their respective slopes but look at the tips now....they are showing an even steeper slope .... this indicates to me the bottom to this fall is a long ways away....13500 or the lower band of support are not number picked out of the air....they are probably reality.

If you look back at my August posts you will see how I was commenting on poor performance based on the stocks I hold in this portfolio and in real life.... you can see the portends of bad things in the sharp decline in the Slow Sto at the end of August...the steepness of this decline means it was not going to be a slight correction





this is a very bear chart.... the CMF is a saw toothed decline showing no end....
the RSI has dropped from mildly bullish to full-on bear in about 5 weeks and no signs of change
the ADX DI+/- is diverging bearishly and the ADX (black line) shows this is a strong trend





What can I say....it is obvious that this is a BUTT-Ugly chart....everything is BEAR....no redemption hinted yet.


Conclusion

I learned a lesson for the 2008-2009 crash. Back then I did not sell hardly any stock. I held on for grim death until the bleeding stopped. This year I have liquidated 75% of my holdings in real life and up to recently I was almost there in this fantasy portfolio.

But this is a place to try things and so I bought ECI.TO and also took a shot at KLS.TO.

Whereas in 2008 - 2009 I lost 45% of my holdings...in both my real and fantasy portfolios I am still a couple of % into the BLACK.

Here I will experiment with more swing trades here...but in reality I am hunkering down , waiting for this storm to end.

There should be huge opportunities after this severe correction ends.

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  #348 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

The continued decline of Canadian indices

another bad day on the Canadian market





See how the index value fell to 14000 then rose back up to about 14100....it smashed that first weak support I showed in the P&F chart in the past post....but stopped at the second one at 14000...So I guess that establishes the 14000 level support as being a bit stronger.

Not fun in Canadian markets compared to those in the USA. Then again the USA dollar is gaining strength now and more which may make them feel better but that will make their goods (the few that they actually manufacture any more) more expensive and our exports of raw materials more profitable as they are priced in $US.

Here is a table of Capped TSX sub-indices

Index....................................................................... Symbol ..... Last .............. Chg ...... % Chg

S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ........................ ^T00C ...... 16,330.18 ... -153.26 .... -0.93
S&P/TSX 60 Capped Index .................................... ^TX6C ............ 901.62 ....... -8.38 .... -0.92
S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index .. ^TTCD ............ 146.60 ....... -1.44 .... -0.97
S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index ............ ^TTCS ............ 364.74 ....... -2.64 .... -0.72
S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index ^TTMN ............ 716.01 ........ 7.06 ..... 1.00
S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index .............................. ^TTEN ............ 252.23 ....... -8.26 .... -3.17
S&P/TSX Capped Financial Index ............................ ^TTFS ............ 244.84 ....... -1.84 .... -0.75
S&P/TSX Capped Health Care Index ....................... ^TTHC ............. 92.62 ....... -0.47 .... -0.50
S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index ......................... ^TTIN ............ 180.34 ....... -0.04 .... -0.02
S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index .... ^TTTK .............. 39.82 ....... -0.09 .... -0.23
S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index ............................ ^TTMT ........... 225.91 ........ 5.30 ..... 2.40
S&P/TSX Capped Real Estate Index ........................ ^TTRE ............ 258.93 ........ 1.23 ..... 0.48
S&P/TSX Capped Telecommunication Services Index ^TTTS ............ 118.93 ....... -0.28 .... -0.23
S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index .............................. ^TTUT ............ 214.19 ........ 0.17 ..... 0.08
S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index .................................... ^RTRE ........... 159.60 ........ 0.35 ..... 0.22

So far it looks like Metals, Utilities and Real Estate look better...but that would take more investigation to be sure

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  #349 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I reproduce this P&F chart on the TSX just to show the stepping down through week supports





and today October 15 we are falling through another level....though it was labeled a weak support on the chart







We are now below that 14000 support and down to 13800 or so.....

Another almost 200 point loss...this is becoming a daily habit....we are no longer looking at a correction...it is rapidly becoming a crash.

The next support at 13500 SHOULD be a more substantial one and may halt the fall. We will know soon as at the rate this thing is falling this support should be tested before the week is out....

So far these weak supports last only a day of trading....the way this thing is falling It would not surprise me if it fell down to what I think is rock bottom





you can see from this chart that the TSX is below the lower Bollie and there is no hit of a reversal of the MACD or BBwidth.

Gold is rising slowly but {shrug} who knows what that means....

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  #350 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

portfolio status Oct 15


{Sigh} another day another 150+ drop in the TSE....nothing is working....I am still in the black...hanging on with bloody fingernails




At this point there is nothing much to do but wait this out.

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March 21, 2015


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