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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #321 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Playing a stock for Long Term - Part 4 (last post)

Ok...we set a Limit Stop-Loss at $54.40 to $54.50 and we were lucky and the stock price reversed immediately





then if you look at the BBWidth the Bollies really opened up by the end of April and the MACD and Slow Sto responded positively as well and the stock took off again.

For the next 4 months the share price climbed....as long as it stays above the 20daySMA and below the Upper Bollie....you just watch happily and count your money. There are a couple of buy signals along the way...do you see them...end of June and again end of July....you could use these times to add to your stock holding if you want.

But we hit a dip at the end of August...it has fallen below the 20daySMA....another decision...to sell or not to sell???

Is there a difference between this dip and the last one???

YES...there is...


The April18th situation had a rising BBWidth and falling MACD and Slow STO...a real potential sell signal if the BBwidth continued its rise.

The Aug 27th situation has all three indicators falling...this is not a sell signal....this is consolidation after a bullish rise.

this fall is sort of natural after a bullish rise....however it was rather an abrupt fall to the 20daySMA. Could it continue to fall? Yes of course, it would probably not be a precipitous fall (the BBwidth is too high) but it could be a gradual decline.

SO...TO PROTECT YOUR GAINS...and sacrificing some (after all you gained another 30% in 4 months) you look for a support line...the P&F chart would not help as this is unknown territory for that chart, but examination of this chart shows support at $77.40 - $77.50...so I will set a Limit Stop-Loss here, at this level and see if it recovers....and we are lucky again...it recovers without tripping the stop-loss...and we climb higher





You are faced with a potential sell situation again a couple of months later ... at the end of Nov.

It is a sell signal....but not the most robust one...but it is a sell signal....I would then haul out the other 2 charts for a complex analysis similar to what we did before.

Here they are








the evidence is conclusive...the consensus is BEAR...it is not the strongest sell signal but all indicators are mildly to full on bear.

Do we sell immediately??? I don't....remember...limit your losses but not your gains

where can we set a Limit Stop-loss level





Now this is a SELL signal after the analysis....and a strong one...even though it is taking place in a consolidation phase as ALL indicators were bearish

As you can see I can see 3 different potential supports in the P&F charts with a $4 difference from top to bottom...not much money compared to what we have made on this play so far.

So I would set the Limit Stop Loss order to the bottom support line to give it every chance to recover....that is $79.80 - 79.90 ( I set it slightly below the support just in case a spike goes slightly below the support.

Obviously looking at the Trigger chart (4 charts ago) the price did fall more...from $85.00 to $80 on a spike on mid Dec (never set your stop-loss exactly on a support...always just below

The energizer bunny continues today....See those nice buy signals ... a few spikes downward in price but nothing serious.


So let us summarize how I play a long term stock

1. A long term play can come from two sources....a) a swing play that won't quit. b) a planned long term play for a solid stock

2. A swing play has no particular FA analysis.

3. If you are planning to make a long term play then you do extensive searching for the right play....screening on the basis of FA looking for little or declining debt , rising Operating revenue and a positive increasing Net revenue. With a limited of stocks to choose from you then do a complete TA analysis and choose the best candidate.

4. First buy occurs on a BUY sign in the trigger chart. If there are multiple buy signals as the months go one you can use these to add to your holdings

I don't use stop-loss at the first buy...if you need to do that...you obviously have not done a good job picking a candidate...good buy signals are rarely head-fakes.

5. When monitoring your stock...

- as long as the stock is between the upper bollie and 20day SMA there is nothing to worry about.
- if the price rises above the upper bollie a little this is quite bullish....if it rises pretty high then expect a pullback to the bollie envelope and watch closely...if it rises really high in a spike then seriously consider selling on that spike, then put it on a watch to see what happens when it pulls back (in 3-5 days)...such stocks are more swing plays than long term. Long term plays are steady earners .... not 100% in a couple of weeks.

6. Use Limit Stop Loss orders when concerned about a fall in price...as you make more profit you can afford to be more generous in the setting of the level of the order...remember... limit losses not profits


Conclusion

This was and still is an excellent long term play (frankly I should have found it myself...a long time ago {sigh} ) but we cannot have eyes everywhere. If you look at my fantasy portfolio in this thread you will see Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD] that is an excellent long term play with dividends as well.

Well this has been an interesting exercise .... actually it helped me organize my thoughts. Every chart has its own set of circumstances. I have shown you some of the ways to look at a chart....give me another company to look at and their chart may reveal something new...it is like reading a mystery novel for me....assemble the proper clues and it is solved.

Thanks for your interest

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  #322 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Sept 10 status

Well things are not going too well and I have been quite busy elsewhere and haven't watched this portfolio closely

here is the current status



I will devote the next couple of posts soon to evaluating these stocks.

I live in Calgary and we have had 2 snow storms in 3 days dumping 35cm (about a little more than a foot) of wet snow...{sigh} such is Calgary weather...it is not unusual and we will be nice and sunny again starting tomorrow (Indian Summers are great)...just a little depressing.

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  #323 (permalink)
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Underexposed View Post
... (Indian Summers are great)...

We have one. No snow or depression either. August was rubbish though. No change there then.

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  #324 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


ratfink View Post
We have one. No snow or depression either. August was rubbish though. No change there then.

Actually we have had a great July/August...a couple of hard rainstorms with hail but most of that was to the north of us. Airdrie, a small city about 20-30km to the north, had hail stones the size of your fist which pummeled cars with many being written off due to broken windows and dented frame....many house windows and roofs damaged as well. We escaped that damage here though.

I am looking out the window at a clear sky, beautiful sun, melting snow and a temperature that is supposed to rise to +10c...life is worth living again after 3 rotten days. It should stay like this til mid-October when anything can happen.

Sometimes Calgary weather can feel like "8 months of winter and 4 months of tough sledding"

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  #325 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

status Sept 12/14

I have been not paying enough attention to this portfolio as I should and it shows


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  #326 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

portfolio charting update

Well we have taken a bit of a beating in the last two weeks...and lost some profit...no...this account is NOT going to blow up in my face...it is just undergoing a correction. I don't like to lose profit...no one does but I don't get anal about it.

So let us look at the charts for this portfolio

Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]





This chart shows a share price in consolidation after July - mid August run...the BBwidth has fallen to a level where a new major movement will occur soon. The Bollies are pretty tight and the share price is well positioned for a bullish rise as it is consistently above the 20daySMA. The Slow Sto is very bullish...even in that significant drop in price in the first week of August, the Slow Sto remained above 50.... the MACD appears to have a lessened neg slope.

Conclusion: I expect a bullish breakout within 5-7 business days.


Enbridge Income Fund Holdings inc [TSX:ENF]





This is a similar chart to the one above. It has been in consolidation since mid August. The last candle had a bad dip but I do not think that serious as in consolidation the price tends to wind arounf the 20daySMA. The Slow STO is very bullish...the MACD is falling but if you look at the BBwidth it is at about 3.75...it must fall to around 2.5 or less before we can expect a major movement...

Conclusion: I expect a bullish breakout within 7-10 business days.


EnerCare Inc. [TSX:ECI]





This is an interesting chart...it has been traveling down a Bollie tunnel for a long time (4 weeks)...but you see the decline of the Slow Sto over the last 2 weeks...to below 50...the price has hardly wavered....but this is a warning of a potential problem as Slow Sto usually leads an event and MACD is already very neg slope.

However, the Slow Sto has a bit of a flat spot now and that is encouraging...but only a little bit.... The BBwidth has been ready to go at anytime.

Conclusion: I expect a breakout anytime now but there is a good chance it will fall. So I will place a LIMIT STOP-LOSS on this stock with a price range of $13.45 - $13.50


Chorus Aviation Inc [TSX:CHR/B]





Another stock in consolidation but note how the Slow Sto is decidedly plunging along with the MACD... the BBwidth is a bit high for a major movement but it is worrisome but not fatal at this point....

Conclusion: This one can go bad...but like the others...I will give it a chance to turn around. I will place a LIMIT STOP LOSS order with a range of $4.50 - $4.55


Algonquin Power and Utilities Corp [TSX:AQN]





Another consolidation chart... We were going nicely except for that gap...but it appears to have leveled off now. But the Slow Sto is encouraging too but not to be trusted... it will probably be 10-15 days before a major movement comes... maybe.

Conclusion: I believe it is prudent to put a LIMIT STOP-LOSS order on this stock with a range of $8.70 to $8.73


Kelso Technologies Inc [TSX:KLS]





I am pretty stubborn on this stock...I believe in the products of this company...in 20/20 hindsight I should have sold this stock in early august...but that fall stopped and I decided to wait out the consolidation period ending Sept 6 and it fell fast to where it now is.

I looked at its Financial reports to see what is going on





I don't see much wrong here....Operating revenues are pretty stable but costs are eating into its bottom line, and to me that is understandable the new manufacturing facility in Texas is still getting the kinks worked out so one would expect some increased costs.

Conclusion: I will give it one more chance for recovery. I will set a Limit Stop-loss at $5.60 to $5.65


LakeShore Gold Corp [TSX:LSG]


This is a pure gold play and gold is doing badly. Today starting at 7:00PM EST the price of gold has climbed $7 to $1234/oz. so today should be ok





I find it encouraging that the Slow Sto flattened at the point the BBWidth rose...but this could be just a rest...not a bottom.

I looked at how this stock performs against its peers






You can see that this stock out performs all of the including GoldCorp, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle and B2Gold Corp.

Conclusion: I am going to place a Limit Stop-LOSS here as well as Gold is just so damned unpredictable lately and could easily fall to $1200 or lower...or not {sigh} The LIMIT STOP-LOSS range will be $0.97 - $1.00


There you have it....I still have not made up my mind as to what to do with the $12,000 resting in cash but this is enough for now.

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  #327 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Status Sept 17/14

Here is the status as of Sept 17....




The Limit Stop-loss of Enercare Inc. [TSX:ECI] tripped later in the day it was applied. It was almost a saw-off as I did get 2 months of dividends.

Now I have about $19,000 to spend and I will have to find a new prospect or add to existing companies in this portfolio....I have not decided yet.

Lakeshore Gold is responding well since I put on the Stop-loss as the price of gold has stopped its slide...I will do an analysis on gold soon....and if I see it rise I will play it as a swing trade, add to my Lakeshore gold and keep the stop-loss as a trailing stop loss until it sells....It is about time I got more active on this stock....it is not a real long term investment...unless you believe Gold to be a good long term investment....right now gold does not look like such an investment

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  #328 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Status Sept 19/14

Lost a little ground but compared to the last 2 weeks things are getting better.




Part of the problem is that the Canadian market is not performing as well as the American ones. That is putting a drag on things.




As a result...I am not in a hurry to buy new stocks and may add to existing holdings...specifically [TSX:TD]

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  #329 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Status Sept 24 and the TSX composite Index

Well here is the status of the portfolio at this point



We are still losing money though so far we have not sold another stock on the stop-loss.

the problem is that the TSX composite Index is in danger of a severe correction. As can be seen below it is resting on a support right now



If it falls below 15150 it will probably fall to 14800 or beyond.



Two doji in a row...indecision to the max...there is no BBwidth/MACD squeeze to suggest a bottom has been found, yet. The Slow Sto is ugly.



in the above chart the TSX has entered and is threatening to fall through the green cloud....the border below is a confirmation of the support...It always amazes me how ichimoku cloud borders serve as resistance/support levels . the rest of the chart is butt ugly...I have the feeling that support at 15150 will fail.

I have taken action in my real portfolios as I have done here. I have set limit stop loss bids on my holdings and proportionally the same thing has happened with to-date about 30-50% of my holdings now lie in cash. There is no use in buying stock until this correction stabilizes..I do not short stocks.

The one interesting stock I have is Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG] it seems to be contrary to the price fall of gold.



the price of gold is similar to the TSX in that it is poised to fall through yet another support but this stock is contrary to Gold and other gold stocks and is entering a BB tunnel.

if gold recovers even short term this stock will probably have a nice jump and I will add to my current holdings in a swing trade to grab back what I can.

Not a good time for Canadian Stocks in general it seems.

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  #330 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Status Sept 26


well things got better today Friday but they did not make up for the plummet the previous day ....as a result another stop loss tripped. , Chorus Aviation B

this portfolio echos my real portfolios...I am about 50% in cash and climbing as the Canadian market falls further. I like using the Limit Stop loss for the sales as it takes the emotion out of the sell and gives the stock a chance to rebound (though few are taking that chance)....I will not put this money back into the market until I see a sign this correction is over.



good trading...not so much fun right now though...but have lots of scratch for the rebound if it ever comes.

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