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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #291 (permalink)
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Well so much for hope...today Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN] fell briefly to $5.94 so I will assume my limit stop loss tripped and sold the stock at $5.95

I now have to make a decision on what to do with $12,400.00. I think I will look for one or two growth stocks in the $1 to $5 range using the same technique I used for finding dividend stocks...I kinda liked that method.

here is the chart for Lundin Mining....looks like it is on a slippery slope now...a $1,200 or so profit or about 10% is fine for a 4 month hold.

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I will put the intra-day posts on hold...I still have things to workout there anyway.

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  #292 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
I guess I am paranoid I am not used to being on a trading website doing what I do and not getting some kind of negative comment. It is a testament to the quality of the participants here and to Big Mike himself.

Well the good results seem to be continuing. The portfolio has passed the $109,000 mark as shown in this graphic.

Well there is not much negative to say about your journal. You are one of the few who puts their trades out in real time. Who shares their methodology freely and is willing to help others without asking anything in return.

However if a little negativity will make you happy it seems to me that for all the time and effort you are putting into this long term portfolio an investor would have done better just buying the Index. Since you started on Feb. 11th the TSX capped composite ETF (XIC) has returned 13.8%

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #293 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
Well there is not much negative to say about your journal. You are one of the few who puts their trades out in real time. Who shares their methodology freely and is willing to help others without asking anything in return.

However if a little negativity will make you happy it seems to me that for all the time and effort you are putting into this long term portfolio an investor would have done better just buying the Index. Since you started on Feb. 11th the TSX capped composite ETF (XIC) has returned 13.8%

that works in good times...a blind monkey can do well in good times...if it were as simple as following an indexed ETF then everyone would be rich....sadly most are not.

But your comments are welcome and thanks for the feedback.

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  #294 (permalink)
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Status of the Portfolio - Aug 29/14

Well Thursday was not so hot and pulled us back a bit but today brought us back a bit. Still looking good and 9.0% looks to be in the rearview mirror soon (fingers crossed)

Here the portfolio status

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As you can see I have almost $12,500.00 jingling in my pocket and I want to buy something.

I suggested in my last post that I might try the way I picked dividend stocks 2 months ago....Well I started to do that and gave up. When looking for a dividend stock, I want consistency, stability in dividend earnings and such.

But I now realize I am looking for a growth stock...looking back further than 1 year is a waste of time I now realize. Some stock that grew nicely 5 years ago may be a has-been now.

So I will shift gears over the weekend and conduct a fundamental search based on debt (low) and earnings(good) and raise my sights on share price from $5 to $10 (I always like at least 1000 shares at this price range)

Wish me luck...I will as always document the process.

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  #295 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
that works in good times...a blind monkey can do well in good times...if it were as simple as following an indexed ETF then everyone would be rich....sadly most are not.

But your comments are welcome and thanks for the feedback.

Letís think about what you just said.

ďIf it were as simple as following an index everyone would be richĒ.

What if it were that simple? What if the secret to being rich was to buy the index and hold it until you needed the money? No trades except to add to a position if you have extra cash. No taxes every year on capital gains unless you pull money out to live on.

Why isnít everyone rich? Human nature. We refuse to believe it can be that easy. We were taught that you have to work hard to accomplish something worth while. We refuse to believe that doing nothing is better than doing something.

Yet the proof is there. Many studies have been done and the results show that the majority of portfolio managers cannot beat an index fund.

Renown investor Warren Buffet advises that the majority of investors would be better off in an index fund.

Quoting 
: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguardís.) I believe the trustís long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors.

The harsh reality is that in good times the blind monkey is significantly outperforming your actively managed portfolio. In bad times, I believe your strategy is to hunker down and wait for good times.

Underexposed, I am not just directing this at you but at everyone who invests/trades in stocks. (Unfortunately there arenít too many of us active here) Step back and look at your performance. Take a long hard look at your goals. Is your goal to get the best return on your money?

Questions every investor/trader should be asking themselves:
If you are not outperforming a simple index then what are the reasons?
What changes do you have to make to your investing/trading strategy to improve its performance?
Is the time and effort you spend researching and actively trading stocks worth the returns you am earning?

Maybe it is as simple as buying the index and we are afraid to try it.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #296 (permalink)
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Your comment is welcome...however, examining one's goals is a personal quest.

I am happy with my goals and performance. I have lived on the proceeds of trading 95% over 10 years of retirement, the other 5% comes from government pensions that cover my rent and nothing else...I don't have a company pension. I make enough money to satisfy my needs and I am not limited in my needs

I don't give a toss about making a ton of money....that goes contrary to my beliefs. What Mr. Buffet advises is fine and is probably useful for those that need advice. I like to figure things out for myself and I am pretty good at what I do. Investing is a sector ETF is boring to me...don't want to do it don't want to discuss it.

Take such discussions to your own journal is you wish and others may discuss it if that is your wish....but it is not a discussion I want to dominate my journal.

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  #297 (permalink)
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Search for replacement stocks

well I have embarked on the first step...a basic scan for potential companies.

At this point the portfolio has been basically stocks from the Toronto Stock Exchange [TSX]. But this go-round I want to look at adding one or two stocks from the TSX Venture Stock Exchange [TSXV]. For those that are unfamiliar with Canadian exchanges the Venture exchange is a place where it is basically a place for start-up commodity companies in the O&G, mining, foresty, etc.... To me it is like the AMEX exchange....it used to be more like the OTCB and grey market but that has changed ....

There is an OTCB type exchange in Canadian markets...it is called Canadian Securities Exchange [CSE] or sometimes it goes by [CNQ]....personally I would never search that place for opportunities.

So I composed a basic search based on being a company that earns money with little debt and I came up with 9 possibilities

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This is a quick look and summary chart for each of the selections. At least half of them look half decent. Next step is to look at fundamentals a bit further to narrow the choice a bit and then on to TA

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The next step is to look closer at fundamentals to narrow the field a bit and then it is on to TA

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  #298 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
I am happy with my goals and performance. I have lived on the proceeds of trading 95% over 10 years of retirement, the other 5% comes from government pensions that cover my rent and nothing else...I don't have a company pension. I make enough money to satisfy my needs and I am not limited in my needs

A very enviable position to be in. Would you be able to share how you go started and how you got to the point you are at now? It would probably be of great interest to the guys starting out with limited capital.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #299 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
A very enviable position to be in. Would you be able to share how you go started and how you got to the point you are at now? It would probably be of great interest to the guys starting out with limited capital.

Frankly, in these days of immediate gratification, I doubt many would follow my path.

I started over 35 years ago....no interest in stocks...the interest was there but back then it was all full service brokers and shrouded in mystery. In the late 1970's and early 1980's you could get 12-18% on a Guaranteed investment certificate (GIC). I have had 5 careers and about 2 jobs within each career. My father encouraged me to start an RRSP (registered retirement savings plan) when I was 25, a tax shelter still ongoing.

I did not like company pension plans since back then they were not portable and locked in until you were 65 and you had no access to the money til then (things are different now though). I also did not believe that many of these companies would be around to pay out on my 1-2 years of contributions.

So I decided to create my own pension plan. I found that I could put away more money into my own plan than I could through company plans so back then you could contribute 18% of earned income to a max of $11,000 yearly into the plan...and deduct it from your taxable so it was like getting a 30% return (the amount of tax you would lose if you did not do this) in the first year....and I put the money in 5 year GIC's which got you that 12-18%. I religiously did this for most of my working life which ended about 10 years ago. This is how I built up my poke.

the mega interest GIC's ended in mid 1980's and toward the end of 1980's the last one collapsed. So that is how I built up my pension and did not fear coming retirement....luckily I never needed to dip into this plan so it just snowballed along.

Interest in stocks started in 1980. I have a strong science background and no financial background so Technical analysis appealed to me more than Fundamentals. Point and Figure charts appealed to me as they seemed exotic compared to line charts so I read a few books from the library and started to charts by hand every Saturday afternoon with the only free financial information at those times - the financial pages of a major newspaper.

I manually charted in P&F on graph paper over 100 companies, was disappointed in the traditional box sizes and worked out my own method (which I still use today). I was fascinated at how resistance/support lines, horizontal or diagonal worked. About then I tried Mutual funds through the bank but quit after a couple of years when they objected to me selling them and buying new ones....they wanted me to buy and do nothing....I never made money that way.

In the late 1990's there was an explosion of information available on the internet...eventually I discovered charting services like Stockcharts.com and Bigcharts.com. I was introduced to indicators and did readings on Moving averages, Bollinger bands, MACD etc. I paper traded for years experimenting with combinations and parameters on indicators.

About that time I also joined a software house and eventually they had a sweet deal. Every quarter you could invest up to 10% of your salary into company stock...they would match your purchase with an equal amount of stock and they would set up a brokerage account for you AND look after the brokerage fees. Also the stocks were immediately vested (meaning I could sell them anytime I wanted to).

Well, that got me into the market....I had a broker now so I went to him to discuss further trading....and that was a hilarious meeting for me.

He was trying to access my tolerance for risk.

Him: "What if I picked a stock for you and it lost money?"
Me: "Well I would check out the stock suggestion and if I liked it the loss would not bother me..."
Him: "What if I picked two stocks for you and they both lost money?"
Me: "Again, if I approved of the purchase I would not like it but I approved them so ... sobeit"
Him: "What if I picked five stocks for you and they all lost money?"
Me: "If you picked five stocks and all were losers....frankly you obviously don't know what you were doing and I would get another broker"

He laughed...I was serious.

I could never figure out the commission schedules and my picks WERE out performing his over the next year. Our group at the software house was chopped and I no longer worked for that outfit. I discovered that I would make money in those couple of years except for the high commission fees.

I discovered discount brokerage in my case TD Waterhouse...switched my account to them...refined my charting ability and when I felt comfortable enough to have it as a sole income I retired and have lived on investment income ever since.

My TA has not been static...through interaction with others on various websites, reading charts and observing how well my readings over the years been...I have developed a pretty good batting average....recently adding basic FA to the mix makes my choices even more reliable IMHO.

So, to those beginning your investing career...I don't think you would follow my path and giving the internet resources today back then my journey would have been a lot shorter. But I learned steadily over this time....my education was not done on the backs of blown accounts. I practiced my thoughts in literal paper trading....Excel spreadsheets and financial data allows you to do your own REAL paper trading .... you don't need a simulator to do it...you learn more doing it manually. Develop a trading style, read books and experiment yourself....this site with all their journals gives you insight to successes and failures of others which will help you.

Long term trading is not the most popular method and if you believe rag media this type of trading is a losing game....in some respects that is my reason for this journal as I want to demonstrate that you can make a decent living in long term trading...it is a lot less pressure when you learn how and you can leave your computer for days at a time an not fear ruin overnight.

But having said that, there are many successful day traders, options and commodity traders...and so that is fine, just not for me.

-----------------------------------------------------
And finally to @deaddog....you now have my complete history....I know you love to analyze this kind of stuff. But this is NOT what my journal is for. If you are smart you will realize this and not probe me any more on the subject... you would be hijacking my journal purpose and I would be forced to put you on ignore...like I almost did a while ago....OK?

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Underexposed View Post
-----------------------------------------------------
And finally to @deaddog....you now have my complete history....I know you love to analyze this kind of stuff. But this is NOT what my journal is for. If you are smart you will realize this and not probe me any more on the subject... you would be hijacking my journal purpose and I would be forced to put you on ignore...like I almost did a while ago....OK?

Fair enough. Iíll ban myself from your thread and save you the trouble.

Itís too bad because youíre about the only poster here who is willing to discuss trading stocks. Then again a system that doesnít beat the index isnít of much value.


I am amazed at how similar our investing paths are. It looks like we started about the same time,(it took me a while to figure out that brokers were just salesmen and only pushed what they were told) used the same discount broker. (I remember placing trades with Greenline over the telephone using the keypad) Had the same opportunity to buy company stock at a discount and had that stock appreciate significantly. (Forest products Company in my case)

I worked mainly contract so although I was paid quite well I was responsible for my own benefits. I didnít buy into the RRSP opportunity. I figured taxes would be higher when I withdrew than when I put money in and I didnít like the fact that the government would eventually dictate how much I had to withdraw. I wish they had had the TFSA in those days.

At 55 I had paid off my mortgage, bought some new toys, pulled the pin and started living the life of leisure. 15 years later itís the best decision I ever made.

Good Luck:
Buy Low; Sell High; Cut your losses short and let your winners run.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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