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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #271 (permalink)
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Gold prices

I woke up this morning and looked at the price of gold and shook my head....What is happening here??

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You try to find out stuff reading the published discussion, so I go to Kitco which to me gives the best discussions but this is the only one that made sense to me.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/Commodities_Daily_20140814_121415097.pdf

I will quote a bit from this discussion


Quoting 
Standard Bank - Daily Report
Standard Bank Global Commodities
14 August 2014

Precious metals

Precious metals are range-bound. Gold is caught in the $1,300 – $1,315 range, while option open interest for the September contract is still straddling gold around the $1,300 level. While technical indicators are holding gold firm, other market forces we believe should continue to cap upside.

.....

Gold support lies firmly within the $1,384 – $1,300 range and, until there is a clear break below this range, we believe shorting the metal holds little value from a risk/return perspective. Tactically, we see the risk to the downside for the metal.

Everyone else says China/India is buying/selling....blame China/India {shrug} Long term their purchasing power certainly affects the price but not that sudden drop and rise again...I am sure the analysts will conjure up some reason in 20/20 hindsight but they don't seem to see it in advance.

Here is a daily chart as of a few minutes ago

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What amazes me is how the drop stopped at that solid green support and is now rising again leaving a shadow behind.

This is why I don't like following "news". You can go crazy following speculation. Hard news (mergers, financial reports, major corporate events either positive or neg) aside the rest is just verbal crap. I would much rather trust my charts

What I see is that the price of gold is bouncing within a solid line triangle of R/S....to my way of thinking there will be a decent move in gold which is coming and will break those solid lines....the dotted lines are secondary supports for R/S.... those must be broken before a real direction to the price of gold can be determined.

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week end status Aug 15/14

This was another decent week we came close to an all time high for portfolio value and we would have been there if it were not for the fall of gold {sigh}

I have added a small chart to the spread sheet to show how the portfolio is faring...you can see how well the rebalance of the stock mix since the end of June.

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I have finished my series on discussion of that "Buy/Sell Trigger" chart.

If you have a company you want me to look at let me know and I will do its chart here..... or perhaps you have a topic that you think I can comment on....feel free to mention it .

Good Weekend!

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  #273 (permalink)
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Well this week has started well so far...We are up a little over 0.5% so far and are riding an all time high for the value of the portfolio... but then I will show details on Wednesday...hope those gains hold

Gold is continuing playing its silly games...here is the chart

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As you might expect by now, the price is crawling forward within that triangle...nothing has changed except a few dollars.

However I think I will do a full-meal-deal analysis on the charts.....keep in mind that these following charts are based on EOD data so today's data is not included

I will show you how I use multiple charts to arrive at a consensus of "Indicator/Overlay" opinion....

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(1) This chart is not the best....See how the price has flirted with the 50daySMA and retreated...I can see from the chart above that the shadow from the previous day is being duplicated with a more convincing solid candle body...it is still above the middle band (20daySMA) ... however the 20daySMA looks to be crossing the 50daySMA from above...This is Bearish to me

(2) We haven't really talked about Parabolic Sar but see how the upper ParSar hit the share price right in the throat of the narrow BBwidth on Aug 8...this is a sign that I find reasonably bullish (otherwise I don't really like this overlay's signals though it can be useful in determining the lenght of a run)....This is mildly Bullish to me

(3) Look at that Slow Sto .... very strong a week or so ago then it hit a wall and has gone flat ever since... This is Neutral to me...neither bullish or bearish as this indicator could go any direction to me.

(4) Look at the MACD ... it started to follow the Slo Stow getting hopes up but now right around a zero value it has flattened out.... this is also Neutral to me for the same reasons as the Slow Sto

(5) Look at the BBwidth ... it fell dramatically to a level where a breakout would occur....but then it said uh...uh...I am not pulling the trigger...it won't tip its hand as to when... This is Neutral to me

We are getting a lot of mixed messages....next chart


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More mixed messages..........

(6) The CMF looks bad for a while....I like using this as an underlay to the closing price... See how the rise and fall of the closing price generally follows the rise and fall of the CMF. The CMF is currently stuck in that mud and we cannot see the effect of today's drop in price .... I would say this is Mildly Bearish right now...I don't see the CMF climbing out very quickly right now for sure but I don't think it will fall to great depths...yet...any way.

(7) The RSI is dead-assed Neutral... the slope of the best line through the points since mid-July is VERY close to zero

(8) The DI +/- is Bearish looking to me....the red/green lines are a heartbeat away from a bearish cross so one must call a spade a spade here. The actual ADX black line is declining showing weakness in the trend this suggests to me a change from Bullish green-side-up to Bearish red-side-up is imminent.

Here is the last chart....an Ichimoku chart + 2 more indicators (unrelated to the Ichimoku chart)


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(9) Look at the share price entering the green cloud...this is not good...at the best we can hope for a prolonged struggle through this green goo... the upper edge is a resistance the lower edge is the support... the only saving grace about this is that it is not a much more difficult red cloud....This is Mildly Bearish ... if it was below the cloud would be full on Bearish

However, even there, there is a glimmer of hope for a bullish rise... Look at those thin red/blue lines at the last candle....see how the thin blue one looks to be climbing to cross the thin red one....it is a faint hope hearing to get a pardon out of this green cloud prison and is another reason the above evaluation is only mildly bearish

(10) The on Bal volume is rising and above(for now) the red moving average.....this is mildly bullish

(11) the CCI is Mildly Bearish... it never made it over 100 and is soon to fall below zero...it is only mildly as it could turn around quickly and be bearish

Conclusion

As you can see we get a lot of mixed messages here...that is life with indicators...but that does not bother me....I seek a consensus...so lets look at the totals

Very Bullish ........... 0
Bullish ................... 0
Mildly Bullish ......... 2
Neutral ................. 4
Mildly Bearish ....... 3
Bearish ................. 2
Very Bearish ......... 0

now you cancel out opposites and look at what you have left

Neutral ................. 4
Mildly Bearish ....... 1
Bearish ................. 2

So looking at this....because of the number of "neutral" indications I would conclude that the price of gold...at this point is Mildly Bearish.... mildly bearish to me means that it is only a watch but I am not hopeful of a turnaround...Were this a stock I might keep it on my watch list but in reality I would probably discard it in favour of a better opportunity

Let us see if this prediction will be born out.

I think this is the first time I took you through a complete analysis...now you see how even though each indicator gives a slightly different (even opposite) look at the future of a price...If you select a good set of indicators/overlays that do not give the same look...You can get a reasonable assessment.

Hope this was interesting to you

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Well here it is a day later and this is the 5 minute chart for Gold

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I hope this fall is caught by the secondary (green dotted in the previous chart) support...yep it is definitly mildly bearish now ....poised to go full on bearish. But as we have seen in past months...it seems to be able to change quickly...after all, it is not like there is peace and contentment in the world, is there?


Last edited by Underexposed; August 19th, 2014 at 01:36 PM.
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Underexposed View Post

I hope this fall is caught by the secondary (green dotted in the previous chart) support...yep it is definitly mildly bearish now ....poised to go full on bearish. But as we have seen in past months...it seems to be able to change quickly...after all, it is not like there is peace and contentment in the world, is there?

Sadly the Fed's balance sheet is still miniscule compared to the amount of debt outstanding. I don't think the value of gold will mean much until we have a complete new monetary system.

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How to spot a pumper and a stock being pumped

I thought this might be a good subject to introduce to the newbie traders...and not so newbie .

I will show you later what to look for in a stock chart....but first I want to show you a discussion from another website where they describe a PUMPER in better terms than I ever could

Here is a link to that discussion...it is worth a complete read to understand the beast I just took a section to whet your appetite

Dominican Rock: Stock pumper's Manual


Quoting 
PUMPERS DO THE FOLLOWING:
1. Be anonymous
2. Use 10% fact. 90% suggestion. The facts will lend credibility to your suggestions.
3. Let others help you learn about the stock. Build rapport and a support base before initiating your pumping routine.
4. Enter w/ humor and reply to all who reply to you.
5. Use multiple ISP's, handles and aliases.
6. Use two (2) or more aliases to simulate a discussion.
7. Do not start with an all out pump of the stock. Build to it.
8. Identify your foes (bashers) and the boards "guru" Use them to your advantage. Lead them do not follow their lead. Ideally, you will become the board’s guru.
9. Only pump until the tide/momentum turns. Let doubt carry it the rest of the way.
10. Give the appearance of being open minded.
11. Be bold in your statements. People follow strength.
12. Write headlines in with catchy statements.
13. Pour it on as your position gains momentum. Not your personality.
14. Don't worry about being labeled a "pumper". Newbies won't know your history, and you are supporting their choice to purchase the stock in the first place.
15. When identified put up a brief fight, then back off. Return later unless your foe is a weak in reasoning powers.
16. Your goal is to limit the momentum of the drop. Not to make the company blast off; be subtle and consistent.
17. Kill the fears of losses, promote the company and the stock.
18. Use questions to create critical thinking. Statements to reinforce facts. THAT CAN BE PROVEN, NAME CALLING AND PROFANITY AGAINST SHORTS IS ENCOURAGED.
20. Tell people that you have called the company. They'll take your word for claims made. If they do call to verify you can always find something that is missing from their response.
21. Encourage people to take the companies word for everything. Encourage them to call the company. They won't out of laziness.
22. If the companies history/PR's are positive constantly point to that. Compile a list of this data prior to beginning your efforts.
23. If the price falls blame it on temporary outside influences, temporary mass reaction, the market, etc. Anything but the stock / company itself.
24. If other posters share your thoughts, play on that and share theirs too.
25. Always cite high volume, even when it's not.
26. Three or four aliases can dominate a board.
27. Bait the bashers with personal attacks putting their focus/efforts on you and not the stock or facts. Divert their attention from facts. Show them the facts from a "different angle."
28. Bash other stocks that would-be investors can turn to instead of the one you’re pumping.
30. Do not fall for challenges on the "values" of what you are doing, it's a game and you are playing it with your own rules.

I have seen all of that and more in the chat rooms I have been associated with over the years.

Some of what I will add to the above is:

1. A really good pump often starts with "some good news" (usually unspecified) that will revive an ailing company and make it a real winner. Maybe it is a loser biotech that looks to be getting FDA approval soon...or perhaps they lost the approval test but never fear they are challenging the result and have the data to reverse the decision.

or it could be a mining company with a drilling report to end all drilling reports.

or it could be a merger with or buy-out by a huge company (unknown so cannot verify) and the announcement will be very soon!

2. They often get this into media rags that feed the pump....they usually print anything they are paid to print (to know that the print is not honest journalism look at similar "news" and you will find it word for word identical...it is a script.

3. The pumper will quote this "news" as proof that this stock is hot.

4. They use language like " I'm going to back up the truck and get me some", "this is a 1 bagger (2 bagger, 3....)" a bagger being a 100% gain, " you gotta get in early so you don't miss it....this stock is on fire".

As the stock rises a little...."man, gonna ride this stock to the moon", (for a stock worth $0.10) "this stock will be $1.00 by the end of the year" yeah right!

the stock starts to fall ... "here is your chance to get a bargain...buy on this dip!"

I hate pumpers

they prey on the newbie, uninformed and yes....greedy. I have been asked to leave a couple of websites because I was interfering with their pumps by giving negative readings on the stock. I like futures.io (formerly BMT) because there is no pumping from what I have seen here in the last 6 months...I doubt Big Mike would tolerate it at all.

Now...what if you don't patronize chat sites where pumpers lurk...how do you recognize a pumped stock from a chart???

here is an example of a pumped stock's chart

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this is an amazing pump as it truly made a lot of money for some.

Note....

1) prior to the pump there was almost no trading of the stock....this is a huge red flag

2) some pumps last only a few days .... this is an exception lasting about 20 days

3) look at the volume history....rockets to a maximum and falls thereafter eventually back to what it was prior to the pump.

4) the price shoots above the upper bollinger band (in this case often).

If you stumble across a stock that seems to be taking off and you see this profile forming....be very careful.

Can you make money off of a pumped stock?

Well yes...as long as you recognize the stock for what it is.

But that is a subject for the next POST (such a tease )

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ratfink View Post
Sadly the Fed's balance sheet is still miniscule compared to the amount of debt outstanding. I don't think the value of gold will mean much until we have a complete new monetary system.

yeah...not just the USA but Europe as well. I find it odd that the fear factor of the present is not working...then again I doubt the Chinese or Indians care a lot for the mid-east or Ukraine problems.

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Well on futures.io (formerly BMT) we disallow OTC penny stocks from being discussed at all, so that eliminates virtually all the "pumping".

Mike

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Big Mike View Post
Well on futures.io (formerly BMT) we disallow OTC penny stocks from being discussed at all, so that eliminates virtually all the "pumping".

Mike

Yes that would eliminate most of those pumps for sure...but they do exist elsewhere...like AMEX or NASDAQ... Actually a lot of the IPO's I see in the past year seem like pumps to me.

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Mid week portfolio Status - Aug 20/14


Here is a summary of the portfolio as of the closing prices for Aug 20/14

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As you can see we have started a great week with us being 1.48% to the good...and this without the benefit of a surge in Gold.

I thought I might upload the spreadsheet I use. This is not a very complicated one...the one I really use is much more complicated that this but it serves this journal quite well.

This attachment is a workbook of three pages inside.

The pages are interactive ... data entered on one page might be transferred automatically to suitable cells. It is not rocket application...feel free to use it if you don't already have a good record keeping system....this could be a starting point.

Just to show how it works let use say I completed 3 transactions

a) I bought 1000 shares of ABC company [TSX:ABC] @ $10/share (new company)

b) I bought 2000 shares of XYZ company [TSX:XYZ] @ $20/share (existing company)

c) I sold 2000 shares of JKL company [TSX:JKL] @ $20/share (existing company)


A) bought 1000 shares of ABC company (new company)

1. Go to the second sheet
2. the quick way is to
---- copy and paste a company eg: TD Bank (rows 22 to 28)
---- Go to A77 and paste the rows in duplicating the record for TD Bank then over-write the info for the transaction into the appropriate boxes...note the calculations will be done automatically
---- this creates the company record for all transactions
3. Go to the third sheet
---- Add the details of the transaction (insert more rows when you run out.) at the bottom of the list....this updates the available cash which is automatically copied over to the first sheet under Canadian Stock Summary - Cash on hand
4. Go to the first page
----- create the new company name and ticker in the current position area and add the currenbt price
----- simply copy and paste the Total Shares to Gain/Loss% from another record to fill out the rest of the record
----- Edit the cells for Total Shares and COST to link the cells to the proper cells in the new record you created in step 2

B) bought 2000 shares of XYZ company (existing company)

1. Got to the second sheet, find the company, copy a transaction record to the next row under the previous one and fill in the information that you did in part (a)
2. Add the transaction info in sheet 3 ..... and you are done...the rest of the information up dates automatically.

C)sold 2000 shares of JKL company (existing company)

1. Got to the second sheet and find the company's record
2. the simple way and way to make the least changes is copy a partial record from an already since all the formulas are there
eg.
---- insert lines so that there is at least 6 rows between the last purchase record and the totals rows.
---- copy rows for the last redemption/totals/residual and paste them into the inserted space (eg. copy rows 157 to 162 from the inactive stock Nordion inc.
---- change the date and overwrite the details of the transactions on the redemption side....all of the totals update
(be careful to make the sums match if there were several Buy transactions)
---- cut the company record and paste it again at the bottom of the inactive stock list.
3. go to sheet 3 and add the transaction details
4. Go to sheet 1 and you will see zeros for the calculations for the company....simply erase the company information.

Adding dividend information

---- Go to sheet 3 to the top create a new record modeled after those already there... the dividend are automatically to the cash on hand...nothing more to do.

a new week for the Summary information

---- go to sheet 1
---- make sure the date is set properly ...then copy the record and paste it on the line below
---- then paste/values (special paste) to the row that you just copied to remove the formulas
---- change the date to a new date on the copied record and also in the title Current Position as of:
---- the chart will update automatically for several weeks.

This is not the most exotic workbook...I do a lot more in my real record keeping because of the multiple portfolios involved there but for those that do long term or swing trading it can be a nice start...I doubt it would be suitable for day trading but it might. I find this handy for maintaining the status of my holdings as well it is useful come tax time.

Hope you like it....good trading

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: xlsx test Stock worksheet.xlsx (73.9 KB, 5 views)
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