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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

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  #261 (permalink)
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Language is far more powerful than logic, whether verbal or visual, for two reasons, framing and secondly because the purpose of recognition is not to recognise things but to infer something about something else. You are a great example of the human brain doing what it does best - using heuristics that computers still haven't approached.

Why can I say this? Because I have just set up a thirty (!) year old Thorens vinyl deck, playing Soft Machine's Third album Slightly All The Time after half a bottle of vodka and making the missus and two cats happy.

Thanks for the posts, TA being done as TA, whatever next?

p.s. you have no idea how many times I had to retype the misspellings in this, I blame the cats.

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  #262 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Hahaha...so you are a cat lover as well as myself. I don't have one right now as I live by myself and travel a bit so it is tough to have to find someone to look after the cat.

One of my other pseudonyms is Lynxear as you may know reading my poetry in the "OFF TOPIC" forum. I love the Lynx and its ears are characteristic of this Canadian wildcat...I think they are also in Russia as well.

Anyway...Glad you like the posts and thanks for the feedback.

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  #263 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Analysis of Chorus Aviation Inc B [TSX:CHR.B]


I would have needed a lot of help from my other tools (charts) if I had found this stock 5 months ago. Would I have had such a problem 9 months ago? Not so much and I will explain why in a bit. Do I have a problem now? absolutely not!!

So lets begin





(1) I have circled a rather wide area here as there is stuff to talk about.

First of all the Slow Sto before the gap gave us a clear message that investors were in love with the stock... (over bought sell signal Phhhttttttt!!!!)...the MACD and BBwidth gave absolutely no clue as to when the gap would happen, both were dead-assed neutral, a carpenter's dream (flat as a board and never been nailed) neutral. And then such a strong response...absolutely ...no-doubt-about-it BUY signal.

(2) I want to point out this Candlestick hammer...this marvelous bullish candle.

Candlesticks are really a short term swing traders tool...day traders too. I use them in this chart but I don't use them for what they are designed for. I use them to judge resistance and support levels in 90% of the time. The are supposed to help you decide the price tomorrow...long term traders don't really care about tomorrow so much.

Why? because all candlestick patterns are 3 or rarely 4 candlesticks and the previous candlesticks are not considered at all, and even then every book I have read on the subject (Steve Nison is the guru on the subject) tell you that you can make a prediction but wait for the next candlestick to confirm it.

People who are introduced to candlesticks are bombarded with patterns to memorize . To my way of thinking this is not what you should do...YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THE STRUGGLE that is going on in that candlestick. Then you know something.

This is not a perfect hammer as there is a shadow on top but that shadow is very small compared to the one below.

this is how I imagined the struggle...the opening price is the bottom of the main body at about $3.15 but during the trading day the buyers beat down the price to about $2.55 when the sellers won and gradually forced the price upward to about $3.25 and it settled back to $3.20... that is an amazing fight...a day trader would have made good coin on that day. That kind of struggle in my opinion does not pullback easily....it is not as if the price just jumped up and stayed there.

(3) This action here breaks my rules. Most of the time...90+% the Slow Sto leads any rise or fall...then comes the MACD and finally the BBwidth becomes the trigger....well that did not happen here...the BBwidth lead the way then the Slow Sto and finally the MACD...that would have puzzled me back in May.

(4) however, I found this stock towards the end of June and by then the pattern was clear...the price staying above the middle BB, Slow Sto above or near 80, MACD and BBwidth are basically fact.

Prediction

It has been due for a major movement for a month now...it could happen any time but right now I think it will march along this current path for a while...the time for a warning is a drop in the Slow Sto below 50 and a MACD that goes definitely negative.

I would stand pat and HOLD until I see the next indication of a change in the indicators...not much bad here...other charts may help but that is not the issue here.

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  #264 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
People who are introduced to candlesticks are bombarded with patterns to memorize . To my way of thinking this is not what you should do...YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THE STRUGGLE that is going on in that candlestick. Then you know something.

Great description.

Also a perfect follow up to my point last night about recognition being for inference rather than recognising things. i.e. it's really re-cognition ...

Of course that understanding comes with big clues for what the wave pattern and profile inside it might look like too, and that's the sort of brain heuristics we take for granted all the time.

p.s. regarding the cats, I do like them but these are a pair of Polish rentals, they should have gone home last week but step-son's mostly smart blonde girlfriend didn't get the injections done in time for their holiday trip. I've had previous wives of cat, dog or horse flavour, although my current fiancée is neutral, could happily stroke them or shave them.

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  #265 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Analysis of EnerCare Inc. [ECI:TSX]

When a stock reaches the end of a run (bullish or bearish) the price usually gravitates to the middle band of the Bollies (usually the 20dayMA in a daily chart). This is usually called the "consolidation period".

Now it can arrive at that point 3 ways:

a) The best is when the stock has a slight positive rise as it travels its way AND the Slow Sto remains in the "HATED" over-bought range...(oh yeah!{sarcasim} you MUST follow what books say when they say to sell in over-bought situations...NOT!!!).

Remember... when a price is in the over-bought zone it is bullish, investors like it...even falling out of this zone is mildly bullish as it can easily reverse and return back there.

b) Next best is is to travel sideways and have the 20dayMA catch up to it. (Slow Sto still around 80)

c) The one to be careful about is during the consolidation the share price falls dramatically toward the 20daySMA and the Slow Sto has a negative slope as it REACHES for that 20daySMA. It is still a natural event (ie. finding the 20daySMA) but it shows a falling interest in the stock...you see this often in stocks that have been in a PUMP/DUMP scenario...(no PUMP/DUMP stock rises or goes sideways in consolidation).

The situation is not full-on bearish just mildly so...it could still recover as the bollies tighten but the odds are not that good and you would be giving up a lot of the gains you made in the last run.

So now lets look at the chart for EnerCare Inc. [ECI:TSX]




Another nice chart which is not hard to interpret.

(1) Look at that stepping stone staircase of Buy signals.... the one at the far right is interesting. It did look like this would have been a sell signal...the share price was falling as was the Slow Sto and MACD....however note how the BBWidth stayed flat...the BBWidth is the trigger....if the trigger moment happened and the Slow Sto and MACD continued negative...then it would be a classic sell signal...but that did not happen...the MACD and SlowSto reversed direction to make it a BUY signal....

You can anticipate the bad things but don't act on it until you see everything...wait for the trigger when BBwidth is at its lowest.

(2) this is the end of the run obviously but you would be foolish to sell at this point. The consolidation is progressing well and the Slow Sto remains over 80... it is not a buy at this point as anything can happen in consolidation... it is a hold until the BBWidth falls back to about 5, ie: when the bb's converge to the maximum....at (2) it is a way too early to make that decision...though things look fine.

(3) Prediction

It is still a hold at this point...look at that BBwidth...it will not get critical til it reaches 5 and that will happen in about 3 trading days, though it may stay at 5 for who knows how long. The MACD is falling and that is normal...the Slow Sto is still over 80 and that is looking fine.

It is a definite hold just sit back and collect the dividends and wait for a decision to buy more or sell...at this point the buy more option looks good....but wait for that trigger

good trading......

PS: cats are very calming to pet and don't demand attention. Dogs and I would guess horses are also soothing but they need you almost 24/7

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  #266 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Analysis of Algonquin Power & Utilities [TSX:AQN]

I don't always show Resistance/Support in a chart like this...probably because I cannot do it directly in a free version of stockcharts.com. I do use P&F charts to show R/S and the trend lines I show here are there...or at least they are easy to see there.

but I jump ahead of myself....here is the chart



Lots of stuff to talk about here

(1) This had all the marks of a price drop of major significance...but it did not happen....was there a clue??? yes, look how weak the BBWidth...it was a mere blip...that was your clue this was a short - head fake.

(2) then the real move was shown a couple of days later. Led by the Slow sto and followed by a stronger MACD and BBWidth it moved....but you might have thought...{merde...I missed it} no...see how high it was over the upper BB...it should pull back and it did.

(3) Is this point a Sell or Hold?? Well it depends if you are looking for a small swing or more money. Let's say you picked it up for $7.50 and sold it for $7.80 (30 cent gain ...about 5%) that is decent I suppose....but there is more money potential.

The Stock is in consolidation now...it moved to the middle band and bounced higher and moving sideways to it....Notice the Slow Sto and MACD...especially the Slow Sto....so tight to the 80 line...both fell a bit and true to form the slow sto leads the way...then the MACD then a decent trigger at (4) to add to your holdings if you wanted too.

(5) months go on we are following a diagonal support...the Slow Sto is great til June then falters a bit...no trigger in the BBwidth...all is fine....Now by July it tries for what soon will be shown as a resistance at about $8.25...it tries 2x more as the triangle tightens and the BBwidth keeps ratcheting lower.

(6) Prediction

this breakthrough could happen any time now...If I looked at other charts I am sure I would see confirmation of a bullish breakout...the Slow Sto looks to be rising a hint in the MACD...and the BBwidth is quiet as a mouse...BUT WAIT FOR THE TRIGGER...that is a strong resistance and it could deny the breakout.

It is a HOLD at this point....but I would be looking around to see if I had extra money to add shares if it breaks out which I am 90% sure it will.

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  #267 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Mid-week status - Aug 13/14

We are having a good week as shown below



We are headed to break the record for this portfolio of 8.36% back in mid April.

Not surprising really if you have been following the posts recently on individual stocks...It looks like I finally assembled mostly winners following that restructuring of the portfolio back at the end of June.

Still one more stock to go in that analysis and that is KLS.TO - Kelso Technologies...I saved the worst performer for last I think it will be an interesting post as I appear to disregard my TA rules on that one. Well, yes I did...but for a damn good reason and I will discuss this in detail tomorrow.

Good trading.....

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  #268 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Analysis of Kelso Technologies Inc. [TSX:KLS]

A lot of chartists will not consider any fundamentals. They believe that everything is revealed in the chart movements themselves. I used to think that too early in my career as a trader.

I thought of it this way.... I would like to consult every person who was holding the stock or was thinking about holding that stock for their opinion as to whether to buy/hold/sell. Obviously that is not physically possible but to a certain extent that is what charting is. Analysis of a chart shows you the sentiment at whatever period of time you want...when the people feel bullish the stock price rises...when the sentiment turns bear it falls...a chart would seem to be a perfect summary of how people feel.

I have come to the conclusion now that I am a more mature trader that there is something to understanding the fundamentals of a company. WHY? Because it can identify companies that are improving their financial situation, alert you to major events ahead which may affect price of the shares...in general it gives you another perspective on a company.

Now my working career is quite diverse, mainly related to health/safety/environment fields but not all the time. I come from a railway family, my father and grandfather worked on the railway (Canadian National Railway). When I was going to university in the late 60's early 70's, I also worked on the railway as a member of EXTRA GANG 101 the largest "relay" gang in western Canada. A relay gang changes out old rail for new and we replaces 78' rail for 1/4 mile rail back in those days...an 80 man gang which in 5 months went through 500 workers...I worked hard physically, once in my life for the princely sum of $1.25/hour for a 12 hour day 6 days a week with free room/board on the work train.

It was a coming of age experience for me. Back then the railway was maintained by "section men". Each man had 10 miles of rail to look after...each 150 miles or so was supervised by a roadmaster. Nowadays, there is no such thing as section men. As I walk along a railway line now I see spikes and splice bolts that are loose, sometimes ties that are not set firm in the gravel...maintenance is done only when there is something grossly wrong IMHO. Yet more and more demands, longer trains are being made on these railway lines. You see mile long trains of hazardous materials dragged through cities...in Calgary last year we had a 100 year flood...a 100 year old bridge with water near the rails was deemed safe enough to drag a 100 unit oil tanker train over it...the rails collapsed and 3 cars almost fell into a raging Bow river...I just shook my head. A year ago a unattended train of crude oil, out of control derailed in a small Quebec town, Lac Megantic and decimated the community when it blew up and it is not the only derailment/fire as it has happened a couple of times in the USA

More and more, oil is being transported by rail instead of pipelines. Pipelines have all kinds of environmental hurdles to pass (as they should) but there has been little attention paid to railway transportation...until these accidents.

Part of the problem is that many of these tanker cars are ancient sometimes 50 years old with no upgrades to hazardous materials tankers.

That is when I noticed a small company called Kelso Technologies Inc who had developed a proprietary tank car service equipment used in the safe loading, unloading and containment of hazardous materials during transport.

Innovative Transportation Technologies | Kelso

What timing...they had just opened a manufacturing plant in Texas and as far as tanker upgrading goes they are basically the only game in town. Can you imagine how many tankers need upgrading or outright replacement.

so I check out their balance sheet.... no debt for the last 5 quarters.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

I check out its income statement... operating revenue is rising...revenue costs and selling admin costs too but the company has a positive net revenue in the range of $1.5Million per quarter. A bit of a decline in net reveue because of increased costs that they have to work on. Do you think their sales are going to fall? Is the demand for their product limited....I don't think so.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

So ..... that is how I found this company....my railway interest, my environment safety background and listening to news.

Technical Analysis of Kelso Industries Inc

here is the chart





there is lots to talk about so let's get started

(1) this area looked bad for the stock....Slow Sto and MACD dropping and the BBwidth trigger seemed to be pulled but look how weak the MACD became and how the Slow Sto reversed direction....this was a head fake as far as a decline was concerned.

(2) the real buy signal occurred here and I jumped into it for my phantom portfolio and in one month it reached (3)

(3) I sold here...it was over 30% gain in less than a month and looked to be falling...I did not want to lose that gain.....I jumped the gun and should have held....but 30+% is 30+% and I forgot about the stock for a while.

I acted a bit irrationally, kicking myself for selling in the first pace and jumped back in on May 6/7...it was late in the rise and actually only a week away from the top of the run at (4)

(4) I did not sell here but I really believed in the company and held the stock all through (5) even though I was in a loss position.

(6) my patience was rewarded when it looked to challenge the resistance at $7.25 but that failed (probably due to that last quarterly report.

Prediction

I am being technically irrational here. Having studied this company, its products and issues in the problems with oil transportation. I believe this company will rise over that resistance at $7.25.

I have not been led astray by Fundamentals...actually I wish I had held at (3) and sold at (4) and waited til another good buy signal was generated. But I did not {shrug} however when (not if) I see that Buy signal I will add to this company.

More and more I find myself involved in looking at fundamentals of a company...not just at a single financial report....it is meaningless to look at ratios in a single report...it would be like looking at a single price and making a decision...I like trending those ratios to find out where they are going... I think FA and TA could be a good marriage.

Good trading

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  #269 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

on Algonquin Power & Utilities


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(6) Prediction

this breakthrough could happen any time now...If I looked at other charts I am sure I would see confirmation of a bullish breakout...the Slow Sto looks to be rising a hint in the MACD...and the BBwidth is quiet as a mouse...BUT WAIT FOR THE TRIGGER...that is a strong resistance and it could deny the breakout.

It is a HOLD at this point....but I would be looking around to see if I had extra money to add shares if it breaks out which I am 90% sure it will.

I wish all my predictions came true so soon


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  #270 (permalink)
Birmingham UK
 
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Underexposed View Post
on Algonquin Power & Utilities

I wish all my predictions came true so soon

Nicely done squire.

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