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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #221 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

OK....finally after 3 emails they admit the "state secret"...they sum partial shares

In my experience with DRIPS...and it is a TDWaterhouse/Canadian experience (I am not sure it applies to other Canadian brokerages), we don't get fractional shares. The shares are not held for me at the company, rather they are delivered to my brokerage account. I first get the entire dividend in cash...that is what I pay taxes on. 3-10 business days...the nearest whole number of shares based on the dividend is delivered to my brokerage account and ,as if I bought them, my account is debted based on the closing price on the day of the dividend less on occasion a discount of 0.5% - 1% and NO commission charges for the transaction.

So...I have an accurate value of cost for the shares for capital gain purposes later when I sell them. and the dividend taxation is straight forward.

Now I can move on...I am ticked that it took so long to get this basic information...financial calculations should not be a mystery...not if you are going to make decisions based on them.

[off my soapbox now]

I have finished my initial cut and have now to do normal TA and FA to arrive at the final cut

Student Transportation [TSX:STB]
Pengrowth Energy Corporation [TSX:PGF]
Dividend Select 15 Corp. [TSX: DS]
New Flyer Industries Inc. [TSX:NFI]
EnerCare Inc. [TSX:ECI]
Whitecap Resources [TSX:WCP]
Gamehost Inc. [TSX:GH]
Morneau Shepell Inc. [TSX:MSI]
Veresen Inc. [TSX:VSN]
Enbridge Income Fund Holdings [TSX:ENF]
Algonquin Power & Utilities [TSX:AQN]
Can-Financials Income Corp. [TSX:FIC]
Contrans Group [TSX:CSS]
Whistler Blackcomb Holdings [TSX:WB]
Russel Metals [TSX:RUS]
National Bank of Canada [TSX:NA]
BCE Inc. [TSX:BCE]
TD Bank [TSX:TD]

All of these are pretty good choices

some quite cheap : Student Transportation [TSX:STB] share price $7.13 yield: 7.85%

some quite expensive : TD Bank [TSX:TD] share price $55.67 yield: 3.39%
(it was 4% when I started this...it is already in my play portfolio so I will probably keep it as it is a good performer)

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  #222 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Status July 23/14

I still have not made up my mind on trades but this week is starting out right anyway


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  #223 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


well I applied my limited and admittedly subjective Fundamental Analysis regarding only debt and income to the list I showed 2 posts ago.

I eliminated 6 of the stocks and show the winners of this cut in the following table



the selection had to have at least a green income....I believe you cannot ignore debt but income will overcome the debt issue especially rising income.

Now comes the final selection...I want 3 to 4 final choices....

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  #224 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Dividend Reinvestment Calculator ?????

Well I still have not made my decision yet because I got distracted by that website with the Dividend Reinvestment Calculator.

Since it worked on shares only including partial shares...and not the Dividends and residuals when adding up total shares after the dividends are issued and waiting for at least a sum of money over the share value before adding a complete new share....I wondered if they IN FACT test to see if they we actually dealing with a dividend stock???

Apparently they do not.... but don't tell them as I have found this a decent way of filtering out stocks...I certainly came up with a nice selection of dividend potential stocks using their website.

To test my hypothesis I decided to use my Gold stock in my fantasy portfolio Lakeshore Gold corp [TSX:LSG]

to get a full year of test data (a partial set would be "annualized") from Jan 2/2013 to Dec 31/2013

and...lo and behold it seems to work.

Here is the summary page for the stock

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

As you can see no dividend is issued...I checked back 5 years just to make sure.

Here is the Dividend Reinvestment Calculator result



no problem generating the one year investment return of -36.52%

here is the chart for that time period



Well the negative sign looks right...the Jan2/13 opening price is hard to pick off so I went to Yahoo/finance/historical records for this stock to get the closing prices

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=LSG.TO&a=00&b=2&c=2013&d=11&e=31&f=2013&g=d


Jan 2/2013 opening price: $0.78
Dec 31/2013 closing price: $0.49

Percent gain/loss = ($0.49 - $0.78)/$0.78 x 100 = -37.18%

As close as "damn" is to "swearing" as my father used to say.... or as my brother would say "Good enough for the girls I go out with!"

Does it surprise me that this works for non-dividend stocks??? Not really considering their reluctance to discuss anything about their application....but I am not going to tell them about it as I am not aware of any other software that makes such a calculation....so let it be our secret

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  #225 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

dividend stock final selection

Well I have made my final decision...here is the table of my final evaluations



the stronger the green color the more favourable the stock. As you can see I like the banking stocks...both banks percolated to the top. I already have TD Bank in the portfolio so I won't be adding National Bank of Canada...I venture to say I could put any Canadian bank in there and get much the same result...I like TD Bank so I may add another 100 shares of stock...I won't do that now ... only if I have money left over.

The stock I like most is Enbridge Income Fund Holdings inc [TSX:ENF]..

I have placed a Limit Buy order for ENF.TO : 500 shares at $29.50/share



As you can see I have placed orders to sell FP Newspaper and Pengrowth Energy ..... this will allow me to purchase 2 more stocks ....probably 2 of the following 3 stocks...either Enercare [TSX:ECI]. Gamehost [TSX:GH] or Algonquin Power [TSX:AQN]...currently I lean to ECI and AQN

Having a good week with one more day for the week...let's see if we can hang onto these gains.

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  #226 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well that was fast...I got my prices...I could have made a few cents more or paid a few cents less as the case may be but that is not the issue here as we play long term

So I now own in this portfolio a total of 500 shares of Enbridge Financial Holdings @ $29.50/share

I sold 2000, shares of Pengrowth Energy @ $7.26/share

I sold 2000, shares of FPNewpapers @ $4.25/share.

the Enbridge purchase killed my existing cash on hand...the sale of the above gives me about $24,000. At least my brokerage (TDWaterhouse), will allow me to use those funds right away since if i make a purchase today the settlement of the sales will be finalized the same day as the settlement of any purchases...and they know I don't daytrade.

in the previous post I said I leaned to the purchase of Enercare [TSX:ECI] and Algonquin Power [TSX:AQN] so let us do it

At the time of this post AQN.TO is priced at $8.15 and ECI.TO at $13.76



So I will purchase 2000 shares of AQN @ $8.15 as I think it will rise


that will leave about $24,000 - $16300 = $7,700 for ECI.TO



I think this will ....Geeze! that can go any way...I will buy it at $13.76

I will buy 500 shares of ECI @ 13.76

that will leave a slush of $50 or so on hand after everything

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  #227 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Status July 25/14

Well I lost a few cents on those guesses but it does not matter...here is the status of the portfolio as of closing today



Had a great week gaining 2.84% and raising the gain to almost a high...I expect the changes I made will keep the trend running

Have a good weekend

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  #228 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

future posts

Well the week has started well...the portfolio gained almost 0.50% for the day...may this continue

I think this portfolio will stay the course for several weeks...barring a disaster of course.



gold is currently rising above yesterday's market numbers but it is so fickle (manipulated??) who knows...LSG.TO certainly has responded well to the last rise...looks like a fine pick.

My interpretation of charts is a lot different than most. I have, over my studies, worked out some unique relationships...at least I have not seen them touted anywhere else.

Now that I think things are settled in I will describe how I use indicators, overlays and what I think is a bullish or bearish position. I am not 100% different from the traditional but I do depart from the conventional in many ways.

I think the reason is that most people who write books on Charting do so without defining the type of trading that they are targeting.

For example: you note that I do not use a signal line in my MACD chart...I don't find the signal line to give a timely alert in a daily chart...it is my belief that too much goes on within a daily result to give a meaningful result....ditto to the crossing of the zero line of a MACD chart...what does matter is HOW YOU ARRIVE at that point.

However, in a very short interval...say 5 minute intervals...while I still favour the interpretation without the signal line, it does give a visual that can prepare you for a change coming....so from a daytrading viewpoint or in my case timing an entry/exit in real time I would keep the signal line.

I will discuss this indicator in far more detail in future with many examples to support my positions.

Should be fun.

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  #229 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

indicators/overlays introduction

I am going to talk about more traditional ways of charting...I use a typical chart with an X-axis of evenly timed intervals....1 minute, 5 minute, hourly, daily or weekly intervals.

My discussion does not specifically relate to TICK charts. I never knew such charts existed and embarrassed myself when I first saw one here You may see something in my approach that you might want to try in your own indicators...I know from reading here that many develop their own indicators and I suppose sell them. By reading my posts you may find a new approach and if you do GREAT...it would be nice to know I helped but that is all I will get out of it.

For the most part my discussion will be aimed at the newbie to TA...it may be too basic for many...it gets better as I go along when I discuss using indicators as a group consensus...I am certain that there is something for everyone.

I know that the use of indicators are not held with high respect and I can understand why. I think that many newbie investors spend time in the fruitless search for the absolutely perfect indicator but in my experience there are many indicators that when used in ways that make sense to you...give very good information...But I am here to tell you that all indicators lie or give a head fake that screws up your trade.

However, they don't all lie at the same time!!! And this is important to know. The object of the game is to find a suite of indicators that do not give the same look .

For example: you should choose ONLY ONE of the following indicators: ROC, TRIX and MACD in your indicator mix.



See how you are basically getting the same look even the signal lines on the MACD and TRIX cross at about the same place.I prefer MACD myself and will talk later about its use. See how the dips and dives of each indicator are basically in sync...ROC is too choppy for my taste. If you used all three or two of these indicators in your analysis...even though they are calculated differently...you would get the impression that these are confirmations of an action to come.

A combination I use over and over again and will devote a whole post or two to eventually is Slow Stochastics, MACD and BBwidth...look at this chart:



You can see that this combination of indicators (with modifications...the reasons why to come...such a tease ) gives different information at different times...it may seem that the BBwidth tracks the MACD...but you will see these indicators go in opposite directions in this chart... see at the beginning of this chart months of August to Oct...this combination is very significant as to what is going on.

I will discuss the subject of Resistance/Support in the next post. The reason is that resistance/support applies to more than just price...it can (should) be applied to indicators as well. So it is important newbies to use this in their bag of tricks

Here is a table of contents of what I will be talking about for the next little while:

1. Resistance/support (one post)
2. Bollinger bands and BBwidth (2-3 posts)...yes there is that much to talk about. Most charting books devote a page at most to this important overlay and its equally important Indicator
3. MACD (1 post)
4. Slow Stochastics(1 post)
5. How to interpret posts 1-4 as a unit (2-3 posts)...I will show how they can be used for long or short positions

Then I will take a break as that is a lot of information to digest

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  #230 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Mid week status July 30/14


Things are perking along nicely...our portfolio is almost at an all-time high




Next post will be on use of support and resistance trends...one complete post for sure....perhaps 2 now that I have thought about what I will say.

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