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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #211 (permalink)
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Well I got my order for 1300 shares Lakeshore Gold [TSX:lsg] for $1.11/share right at the morning bell

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If you broke the time into minute intervals you would have seen about 50,000 shares traded in the first minute so 1300 would have been filled early.

Overall though this has been a rough start to the week...I will be updating the portfolio tomorrow for mid-week status...hopefully we rebound a bit.

LSG.TO looks great though so far

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  #212 (permalink)
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Glad to see futures.io (formerly BMT) up again...I missed it yesterday and did not have a chance to post my mid week status so here it is

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it looks bad for this week but really it was worse last Monday. If things keep going as they did yesterday we may escape the week with a profit

GOLD is breaking out

it is becoming decidedly bullish as shown in this chart

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Remember months ago we had triangle resistance/support lines but they were descending triangles and we saw the price of gold hammering on the support lines until they broke ....just the opposite is happening now. The triangles are ascending and the resistances are being hammered til they fail.

$1350 should be a stumbling block... but that is breached and we head on to $1400 that will be exciting.

For the time being I have parked my scan for more study...so far I have not found a keen prospect except that diamond mine in Africa [TSX:LUC] which has had a run for too long and I fear profit taking. [TSX:HWO] looks promising too but it has a huge resistance to pass at $5.65 and it was denied just recently.

But with gold climbing like this a much better prospect is to add again to my existing holdings of Lakeshore Gold Corp [TSX:LSG]...this has gained 10% since buying it a feww weeks ago...I added 1300 shares at the beginning of this week and I am trying to add 3000 more this morning....I won't chase it if it skyrockets far above the upper Bollinger band as it should pull back if it does.

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Right now the chart is showing me a beginning of another bullish run....and given its past performance and the rise in gold price yesterday evening...I think this augers well.

I am not diversifying among gold stocks....there is no point to it as all gold producing stocks shoul perform similarly and LSG has done well so I will ride this horse.

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  #213 (permalink)
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We did not get LSG at the opening as it opened at $1.20 and climbed to $1.23....but it is starting back down slowly and is currently at $1.21 so it may well fall back to $1.19 before the day is out.

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  #214 (permalink)
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Well I got my price of $1.19/share for Lakeshore Gold Corp as can be seen by the following chart

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Now we have a decent share volume to make some real coin. The price fell at the end of the day, perhaps day traders where grasping profits at the end of a nice early run...

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Gold itself had a downward trend once the markets opened this morning....LSG hung onto its early gains then (and it is only a guess on my part) the daytraders did not feel confident in their positions and the price pulled back....I'll take the gift....here as well as in my real portfolios.

I truly believe we are headed for at least $1350...and if it is struck with force we stand a good chance to breach that resistance and head to $1400

So...how do I see the movement of LSG for the forseeable...I look at P&F charts for that and I don't use traditional box sizes. I personally think the charting method was devised in the first instance for stocks over $20...the box sizes when looking at sub-$10 are too large to show meaningful movements.

My rule of thumb is to use "User Defined" box sizes as in the following:

Share Price ......................... Box Size

$0.01 to $0.50 ..................... $0.01
$0.51 to $1.00 ..................... $0.02
$1.01 to $5.00 ..................... $0.05
$5.01 to $10.00 ................... $0.10
$10.01 to $20.00 ................. $0.20
$20.01 to $35.00 ................. $0.25
$35.01 to $50.00 ................. $0.50
$50.01 to $100.00 ............... $1.00
$100.01 to $200.00 ............. $2.00
$200+ .................................. $5.00

These are guesstimates...depending on the volatility of the share price I might go to the box size above or below the one suggested above...you want a clear readable chart. Here is the chart for LSG with a box size of $0.05 as it is at $1.18/share now

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Currently we are straddling a support between $1.15 - $1.20 looking at this chart...sometimes when I want a bit better look at a chart in the $1 range...I will drop the box size to $0.025

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See how that makes a difference....NOW you can see clearly that we have breached a pretty strong resistance between $1.15 and $1.175 (rounded to $1.18) to the left we have 2 tops of "X" columns and one Bottom of "O" column...we rose significantly above today to $1.24 before falling back to above what is now a strong support.

Good...the first P&F shows a bit of a struggle of minor resistances til we get to $1.35 ... that is our target right now...IF we pass that we are headed for $1.70....that is enough targets for the present...each one is a step or wall along the way.

Wish the rest of the portfolio had such a good day

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  #215 (permalink)
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Portfolio status July 11/14

Well this was a pretty rotten week overall but there is a bright spot.

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considering the losses in this portfolio this early week we came out of it not too bad. The real bright spot is Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG]....three weeks and we have over 12% and the price of gold is only slowly moving.

If these other laggards get moving...this will be fine

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  #216 (permalink)
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Gold fell 2% so far today...is the sky falling?

Well, it had to come sometime, didn't it?

We had almost $100/oz rise in price in the last 6 weeks, the first real positive run in Gold price since Jan-Mar this year....so it is all over???

http://www.kitco.com/reports/Commodities_Daily_20140714_132832447.pdf


Quoting 
In our view, from a tactical perspective gold is moving into overbought territory, especially if read in conjunction with demand from Asia and China. With the rally in the gold price over the past two weeks, the SGE premium in Shanghai has come under pressure, with the premium trading as low as -$3.04 last week. This morning it edged marginally higher, registering a low of -$1.86 and a high of $0.99. Our tactical view remains that gold is a sell into rallies. Go ld support is at $1,305 and $1,296. Resistance is at $1,332 and $1,349.

the bold italics are mine... I don't really understand what they are saying here...are they saying gold is going to plummet more but wait for rallies and do your selling then??? Personally I think this is a pretty premature advice.

I do agree with their resistance/support levels (horizontal) though and I will show that in a minute.

The above analysis makes it sound like North American markets caused the decline. Well here is a 5min chart of the latest prices for gold.

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As you can see that decline started in the weekend when North American markets were closed. To me the final drop at the bell was just a reaction to the Asian markets nothing more...an that "panic" lasted all of 2 hours or so and now there is a definite plateau.

They comment on the market for gold being overbought... Other than 20/20 hindsight on the fall, I fail to see how from a charting point of view that the market was overbought...unless they are faithful followers of Slow Stochastics.

Here are my charts

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there is nothing here to indicate the market was overbought...the Slow Stochastic is the only indicator showing it in that range and it has been there for almost a month...where was the "overbought" warning from the media prior to this.

these are still good looking charts the current price of Gold has been in CONSOLIDATION since that last bounce on June 23...a very nice consolidation with a positive drift and the FALL to $1307.00 has just brought it to the neighbourhood of the 20day SMA (around $1313 on Friday) WHICH IS A NORMAL EVENT after the peak of a rise and consolidation.

We shall have to see the effect on the Slow Sto, MACD and BBwidth after today's trading but UNLESS the Slow Sto and MACD take a severe dive and the BBwidth rises sharply there is nothing to worry about.

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Looking at this chart...you can see the price has fallen to a pretty strong support....the horizontal $1307ish support PLUS the diagonal support line as well

So what caused this drop over the weekend...well India is a large consumer of the metal and I found this article from an Indian source.

Gold price crashes, witnesses biggest single-day fall in 2014 - Business Today


Quoting 
Gold prices plummeted by up to Rs 800, the biggest fall in a day this year, to 10-month low levels in major bullion markets of the country after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) eased import restrictions on the precious metal.

Traders attributed the sharp fall gold prices to the central bank's decision to ease import restriction on the metal which triggered heavy sell-off by stockists.

The RBI allowed select trading houses, in addition to already permitted banks, to procure the precious metal to boost exports.


.................................


Traders said there are expectations that RBI's move would increase supplies and reduce prices in the domestic market.

NOW THAT MAKES SENSE to me....no hand waving "overbought" nonsense...the Reserve Bank of India made a major decision that effects the price of Gold in their country... increasing supply there.

I have to wonder if India - a major consumer of Gold - increasing its purchases of the metal will be bad for the world price??? I don't know...but it is not like they are dumping Gold onto the world market.

*****************************************************

So how has this affected my one Gold stock, Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG]

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well even this chart show a normal price pullback....on Friday the price rose above the upper Bollinger band ...it had been at or above that BB for 4 days...that is a rarefied atmosphere to be in...prices are rarely above the Upper BB for more than 3-5 days....the next day or so will tell the tale but the Slo Sto is still over 80 this drop showing only a minor down tick, the MACD is showing a plateau at a higher high and the BBwidth still shows a positive slope albeit reduced.

Conclusion

Is the sky falling for the price of Gold....I doubt it

Has peace broken out in the Ukraine, Iraq or Syria?

Has the Bank of Portugal (one of the death watch banks) turned it around and is resolving its debts...just the contrary from what I read.

Nothing in the world has changed other than India lifting restrictions on importing Gold making it cheaper in that country and creating more demand in the rest of the world

Unless something dramatic happens to further lower the price of gold...this could be a buy-on-dip opportunity IMHO

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  #217 (permalink)
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Mid week status Plus comment on gold

Well all things considered with respect to the 2%+ drop in Gold price we are not doing too bad.

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You will note that we lost Bellatrix BXE.to and that is really too bad as I had high hopes for that stock before they pulled that stunt with the private placement. They are using this money for debt paydown and reinvestment and they apparently have great O&G properties....so they will be definitely on my watch list.

But on the other hand...I am very happy with Lakeshore Gold...it is holding its own when other gold stocks are failing as can be shown by this chart

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Gold Corp [TSX:G], B2Gold Corp [TSX:BTO] (which I used to think the world of) and Argonaut Gold [TSX:AR] all performed in a similar manner over the last 10 days...but Lakeshore gold really out stripped them all.

Gold's plunge has halted, at least for now...if it takes off again or just continues its positive slope...we will see LSG.TO continue its rise....I am temped to add a few more thousand shares to this stock.

We collected some dividends....I am really thinking hard about what I do with dividends...currently I just throw them into common cash....but I don't know if you are following my discussion on High Dividend stock plays

https://futures.io/stocks-etfs-trading/21831-high-dividend-stock-plays-2.html

this tool which I will discuss more has opened my eyes as to what Dividend Reinvestment accomplishes. I don't like DRIPS as done by the Broker...yes you save commissions but they did not appear in my normal portfolios regularly whereas dividends do and if I manually do the reinvestment then I have control...I feel much better that way.

More on that in future posts.

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  #218 (permalink)
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Portfolio status July 18/14

Well thing were basically no change tough we suffered a small loss it is not serious.

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I am sitting on a sizable amount of cash and not sure what to do with it...that screening I did a while ago has not resulted in me finding a good stock to put money in...O&G stocks are failing me and I am in no hurry to do anything with Gold....just when you think it has a direction it seems to reverse. As pointed out in an earlier post...I am happy with Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG] or [AMX:LSG]...I have a sizable investment so far and perhaps I will add to it if freak'n gold would show a direction.

I am pursuing the analysis of dividend paying stocks....I want high dividend paying stocks that grow slowly. Why slowly? because I want the dividends (and reinvestment...compounding) to be the driving force to the stocks overall performance...not the capital gain.

Why do I want this??? because if the stock is a high flyer then the losses due to the downturn in the share price outstrip the gains through dividend payout.

I may be looking for a holy grail here but now I have a tool to help me. So far the tool (talked about in previous posts) is showing me nice stocks that have had great year over year performances....but when you look at them it is not the dividends doing this...I haven't looked a Canadian stocks...yet and there may be a difference between Canadian /US dividend stocks.

I looked at Vanguards Dividend Appreciation ETF VIG. On the surface it looks like this should be a high dividend ETF but it is not...it looks at stocks with a history of constant dividend increases for its component stocks.

As itself the ETF only pays a 1.92% dividend...combining the reinvestment of dividends with capital gain of this ETF gives it a gain of 25.08% in the previous year and 11.12% in YTD so far.

For fun, I decided to look at the top 20 stocks that made up this ETF...none of these stocks had Dividend yields over 3% but many had great previous calendar and YTD performances

Ticker.................. YTD performance ............... Last year performance

JNJ ........................... 27.57% ................................ 32.39%
MMM ........................ 13.84% ................................ 49.01%
WAG ........................ 57.13% ................................ 52.40%
EOG ........................ 93.85% ................................. 34.11%

but there were some interesting ones too

NKE ........................ -2.01% ................................. 53.01%
WMT ....................... -2.53% ................................. 16.77%
CAT ........................ 53.00% ................................. -1.91%

So part of me says....hey! you don't need to be in that ETF...you can make more money sorting out the good performers...but we are back to sorting out good capital gain companies....not good dividend payout companies....hence the potential wild swings in overall performance

In a way it belies the statement that dividend stocks are not decent capital gain stocks, eh?

I am going to continue this investigation and report on my findings in the future.

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  #219 (permalink)
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doing a stock scan using dividend analysis

Ok...I have started my in-depth analysis using that Dividend Reinvestment Calculator that @deaddog brought to my attention last week. I truly think this will revolutionize how I chose stocks for the future. I am most encouraged by the results I am getting so far.

so here is how I source and process the data....I should point out this is a long labour intensive process...but once every thing is set up I will do this process with the original data set...the reason being the first cast of the net catches many losers with the winners...but today's losers can be next year's winners so this is data collection is not a one shot deal.

So for the first cut of data I do a scan With the Globe and Mail free globeinvestor filter. The settings I use are pretty simple as shown below:

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notice my share price range starts at $1.00 and ends at $60.00. Do I expect to get a good dividend stock at $1??? not sure but it is worth a try. At over $60 the share price is too expensive for me to have a decent number of shares.

I want high dividend stocks...not ones that pay a trivial 1% to 4%...there are lots to chose from...I limit the return to 20% ... I doubt I will find a good stock with a 20% dividend...a company with that high of a dividend is probably using its dividend yield to attract investors where they cannot do so in any other way.

it must look funny to see a Revenue lower limit of $0.00...but I want companies that make money to be selected

So I run the filter and collect 114 potential companies

Now comes the labour...I set up a spread sheet to record the data and now plow through checking each company for the YTD return, last calendar year and past 5 calendar years. I have a rank system for each analysis result...it is simple...if the result is a positive value the rank is "1" if not it is a "0". I do this so that later I can use these numbers to sort the data.

Here is a sample of one stock analysed for YTD return...I start on Jan 2 as Jan 1 is a holiday and no data.

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Not a bad return, eh....now that is not due to dividends alone....this is mainly due to capital appreciation.

now I test from Jan 2/13 to Jan 2/14 (1 year) and again Jan 2/09 to Jan 2/14 (5 years)

What I want to see is positive returns in all three results and not simply a high result for one year.....if a result is high the company had a good year...but not a consistent result...year after year.

As I work through the list...If I like a stock's results I highlight it green....the blue ones were great except for the YTD result....I want to look at those as well...why...because they may recover from the bad times this year...I want to understand why they are in trouble before I reject them totally

This work is on-going at present...I am about half way through...here is the result

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So this is what it looks like after the sort....bear in mind I am only 1/2 way through this spreadsheet.

I am very encouraged...here are charts for 3 of these less expensive stocks.

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Of these three I like the Student Transportation stock the best...a steady climb over 5 years and is at a resistance level at $7.00 which if passed will be nice...that requires further study.

Second I like Supremex...very inexpensive...has recovered from its fall nicely and also is poised to pass a resistance

Coast Wholesale is a little too volatile for me on first blush...had a pretty good year but is it due for a fall??? more study is required.

This is just a sampling of what I am doing....but the results so far are such that they will be a definite reason to rebalance my tax free accounts (TFSA and RRSP)

That Dividend Reivestment tool really helps evaluating stocks. The stocks that filter out are good dividend stocks and ALSO good for capital gains...those that say buy and holding dividend stocks is foolish have rocks in their heads IMHO.

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  #220 (permalink)
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Hmmmm........I am wondering about the accuracy of the data I get from that Dividend Reinvestment calculator

I still like it from the point of finding potential stocks for investment but I question is accuracy.

Consider this pic

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Here you see three potential investments in JP Morgan [JPM]

If you look at the value after the time period the Annulaized total Return % is the same if you invest $1,000 or $10,000 or $100,000 and the NOW WORTH numbers for the $10,000 or $100,000 are simply 10 or 100 times the $1,000 investment.

This should be impossible. With $1,000 initial investment does not generate enough dividend dollars in one year to buy a single share of JPM

But by my calculations $100,000 should generate enough money each quarter to buy about 14 new shares and thereby reinvest them

so reinvesting the dividends should give something like the following yields:

$1,000 ============> $1,312.30 or a gain of 31.23%

$100,000 ===========> $133,591.95 or a gain of 33.59%

and this is what you would expect....put more money in get out proportionately more money in return...it is only a few thousand dollars but hey I think it could be a lot more if you had a $10 stock with say $10% return.

I have addressed my concerns to the website...we shall see how they respond.

Having said that however...whatever or however the numbers are calculated...I still like the stocks that it revealed as potential good pics. I have finished the initial cut and now I will look at the good ones in detail to see which ones make the final cut.

EDIT: Well I am not wrong in questioning the data...they responded almost immediately only saying..."This is weird"

I hope they are more forth coming....ahhhh takes me back to my QC days as a programmer 15 years ago...


Last edited by Underexposed; July 20th, 2014 at 09:23 PM. Reason: got a response from the website
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