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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #201 (permalink)
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commercial and industrial

Just 3 stocks left to analyze....FP Newspapers [TSX:FP], Choral Aviation Inc [TSX:CHR.B] and Kelso Technologies Inc [TSX.KLS]

FP Newspapers [TSX:FP]

This is one of the "boat anchors" in the portfolio. If you recall, I set a limit Stop Loss at $4.10 back in mid June but removed this order with the positive drift to the share price.

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the share price has certainly returned to a positive trend and there is no concern on my part that the share price will plunge at this point. The price has now performed normally after a run (positive or negative) .... that is that it tends to return to the 20daySMA.

NOW you look at the indicators below....both MACD and Slow Sto have a nice positive slope...the BBwidth has dropped another notch. I like the position of today's share price which is flirting with the upper Bollinger band (BB). This is not a breakout yet....the trigger for a breakout is the rapid positive slope to the BBwith...and that is flat at the moment.

That trigger is present both in bear and bull situations....and is usually lead by a decline in MACD/Slow Sto (bear) {see may 2-12) or increase in MACD/Slo Sto (bull) and here we find those indicators rising which is making this look decent for a bit of a bullish spike.

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The Ichmoku looks fine...at least for a small bullish run. The thin red/blue lines by the price hint at a bullish cross. The OnBal Volume is decidedly neutral (at least the decline has stopped) and the CCI has a bullish look.

Why do I say the run will be a "small" bull run??? Well we are currently under red clouds and they present strong resistances...it will be a tough slog to get through the range of $4.40 - $4.50.

Conclusion

This is a HOLD for now With any kind of luck at all we will recover some of those losses.



Choral Aviation Inc [TSX:CHR.B]

This is a small aviation company with a fleet of small aircraft that they contract to Air Canada under JAZZ for regional flights as well as other airline services.

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Very bullish chart...there is not a breakout at this point (the BBwidth is still tightening....but Slow Sto are very bullish, the MACD is neutral and the price is flirting with the upper BB...a major share price movement is only a few days away.

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This is a totally bullish chart

Conclusion

This is a HOLD ...if I had extra money in this portfolio I would reserve it for this stock


Kelso Technologies Inc [TSX:KLS]


I have discussed this stock at length in a previous post and why it is a very good long term hold. To summarize, this is the only company that makes modifications to rail oil tankers to make them safer to transport oil by rail.

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On the surface...looking at the portfolio spreadsheet this stock looked like a dog. In retrospect I suppose I could have sold at its peak in early May and consider the repurchase now. But I did not ...I don't think given the circumstances again that I would do any different. That decline was basically profit-taking IMHO and I liked the company for its products and future potential.

right now it has recovered and is in consolidation following its share price drop. The 50daySMA seems to be acting as a support right now and I like the position above the 20daySMA. It will be a week to 10 days before the break up or down will happen....the BBwidth is still getting tighter, the SlowSto while looking not bad is not very bullish as yet and the MACD looks to be topping out for now

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you see the problem in the Ichimoku...the price is fighting its way through the molasses of the Green Cloud. You can see how the upper border of the cloud is a serious resistance. Yes, it will take a a week to 10days to clear this cloud as I said earlier. The CCI is failing now slightly and the OnBal Vol is neutral.


Conclusion

This is a HOLD also ...if I had extra money in this portfolio I would reserve it for this stock. If one or both of the oil companies that I have placed Limit stop-losses are sold I would add to this stock...I think this is just the beginning for this stock....not the end as they have hardly begun retrofitting old tankers with the safer valves as well as applying their technologies to newer tankers.


Well that is a complete look at the fantasy portfolio....for the most part I am happy with its performance.

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  #202 (permalink)
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Status June 30/14

Here is the status for the end of the month with the pending stop-loss orders.

I really don't think these stop losses will be tripped...the are just there for the worst case scenario....already the share prices are beginning to recover. Why don't I sell them??? No reason now as they are in recovery.

I like this suite of stocks but will make adjustments if I see something I like better.

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Well tomorrow is July 1 so it is Canada Day here and the markets are closed in Canada.....see you Wednesday


Last edited by Underexposed; July 1st, 2014 at 10:02 AM.
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well we appear to be headed back to previous highs of 8% or so....today we are now back to 5%+ as of the close of today.

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Overall I am happy with how the current suite of stocks are performing. Previous boat anchor stocks have begun a turnaround as I had hoped/predicted so all is well for now

However, I take a lesson from my old salesman days. It is said that 20% of your clients contribute 80% of your sales...but you would be pretty stupid if you did not look for another client or two with potential to enter this coveted 20% client club.

If you wait until a client no longer produces to start looking for a replacement, well your overall sales suffer in that gap

Similarly, I should be looking for stocks on the verge of a breakout NOW so that I will be ready either to have the problem of which current stock to abandon for a better one or simply to plug in an alternate if one seems to fall with no hope of redemption.

So as a heads up as to posts to come I will go slowly through my procedure for identifying potential long term plays. I will say that the procedure is very different from looking for daytrading plays. For long term plays you are looking for solid stocks in an acceptable price range, perhaps you look for a particular sector..or evaluate sectors to find a good performer, once you narrow down your initial cut to say 15-20 possibles...then you look at fundamentals...then you look at relative performance and finally TA to establish whether or not a breakout is pending and the risk/potential of making an investment now.

It is not a short procedure at all...done right it takes a few days...I intend to walk through the steps I take and arrive at new potentials.

this is opposed daytrading where you are looking for liquidity, volatility, news "BUZZ" and almost no consideration of share price or fundamentals at all...however, the winning daytraders I have been associated with in other forums had at least a firm grasp of basic TA.

It is always instructive to me as when I write it on something like this it causes me to think more about what I am doing...and it generates new ideas....

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  #204 (permalink)
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Screening for stocks - selecting criteria

Actually I am going through a new screening procedure for me. I have tried most screeners on the internet but none have been perfect for me as I have criteria that most Canadian screeners don't consider.

IF I was looking for American stocks I would use Finviz.com...no contest there...it is the best free scanner on the internet for American stocks...but sadly it does not include Canadian stocks unless they are also listed on American exchanges and that cannot include stocks on OTCB,Pink and Grey markets which makes this tool not very useful for Canadian stocks.

Free Stock Screener

Most other web screeners for Canadian stocks do not allow creativity...they are limited in the criteria they use and I have been unhappy with their results.

I use TDWaterhouse as my discount broker and it is curious that I never considered using their screening services. They have many preset screeners but I would like to do it my way...and sure enough you can.

I am not particularly endorsing TDWaterhouse...it just happens to be my brokerage company...I am sure that other Canadian banking discount brokerage services as well as other Canadian discount services offer similar screeners. I encourage you to investigate your broker for their services.

Search Criteria

1. Exchange

In Canada, of course, we have 2 major stock exchanges - The Toronto Stock Exchange [TSX] and the Toronto Venture Stock Exchange [TSXV]. The TSX of course is the major exchange and here you will find your non-commodity bases companies...at least you will not find the lesser commodity based stocks...the start-up companies in the mining/O&G sectors generally start here and "graduate" to the TSX when they achieve a certain level of maturity.

The TSXV is usually considered to be riskier compared to the TSX but since I like start-up mining and O&G companies. If you can find the good over the bad and ugly...you can find stocks of companies who have great capital growth and later can be the object of takeovers. If you are looking for mature dividend paying companies, you won't find them on this exchange.

So I like all companies from both the TSX and TSXV for consideration.

2. Share Price

At first blush, Share price might not seem important...in fact most would shun the $1 to $5 price range by calling them penny stocks. I don't agree with that for Canadian stocks...with US stocks I tend to agree with that sentiment though. There are many financially viable mining and O&G stocks that are past development stage and earning good coin now....debts are disappearing and these are excellent candidates for capital growth.

I shake my head at some American IPO for mining and O&G stocks that start at $20+ per share when they are little more than moose pasture leases but they successfully paint wonderful pictures of future wealth...and Americans buy into these dreams...we seem to be more conservative (I am certainly that way) when it comes to these type of stocks...you gotta show me the money before I think of putting money of my own into them...I have been burned severely by purchasing dreams in the past

There are opportunities at all levels of share pricing. but often you are limited by your free cash as to what you can buy.

I like buying a lot of shares .... let us say I have only $20,000 of free cash to spend

Lets compare sample of stock from our existing portfolio and how much they gained from Jan 1 - June 30

@$50/share : 400 shares......... TDBank [TD]................ 49.80 - 55.00 = 5.80 x 400 = $2080.00
@$20/share : 1000 shares....... Bonavista Res [BNP] .. 13.40 - 16.20 = 2.80 x 1000 = $2800.00
@$10/share : 2000 shares....... Bellatrix Ltd. [BXE] ...... 7.70 - 9.50 = 1.80 x 2000 = $3600.00
@$5/share : 4000 shares...... Choral Aviation [CHR/B].. 3.85 - 4.19 = 0.35 x 4000 = $1400.00
@$1/share.. : 20000 shares.... Lakeshore Gold [LSG] .... 0.54 - 0.98 = 0.44 x 20000 = $8800.00

now this is not exact as we are looking at stocks in a range of the share values so the real numbers of shares would be different hence the totals would be different...also this is a cherry picked group.....by and large fundamentally sound companies (after all I picked them )

but the trends are there....

the higher the price...the gains tend to be smaller [sure we can latch onto the tail of a TELSA and rocket to the moon (100% gain in a year) on a stock that has never netted a nickle in the last 3 years but that is a swing trade prospect...not a long term hold IMHO)

the lower the share price the less the risk....I don't mean on the individual stock...I mean diversification. You only have $20,000 to spend.....you can go all-in on 400 shares of one company @ $50/share...or... buy 2000 share of 2 companies @ $5/share ... or ... buy 4000 shares of 5 companies @ $1/share.....or some combination thereof

to my way of thinking a bare minimum number of share one should buy should be 1000....the reason being is that you really are not making any money if you have less....now at $50/share most cannot buy 1000 shares and have a diversified portfolio in my real port folio I have a couple in that range but those were bought from the proceeds of a nice gain from the sale of a stock...and that happens less than I would like

My major hunting ground is in the $1 - $5 range for a capital growth stock where I would buy 1000 - 5000 shares. If I was looking for a good dividend/capital gain stock I would be looking in the $5 - $20 range for 1000 -2000 shares. If I were looking for a solid dividend paying stock I would look at $20+ stocks but I would still want to buy at least 500 shares but I don't go there much lately.

*************************************************************
Seems I got more to talk about on Criteria but it will have to be in another post.

These are my own personal feelings of a long term trader who has been doing this as sole income for 10 years. {shrug} if you don't particularly agree with these observations...that is fine since it works for me and I am not about to change.

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  #205 (permalink)
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Screening for stocks - selecting criteria - Cont'd

Too continue and bear in mind....these search criteria apply to a long term trade possibility search....looking for short term swings and day trade flips require a different criteria.

#3 Daily trade volume

This is less of an issue for long term traders as it is not necessary to get in or out of a trade in a heart beat. As long as you can buy the stock at the price you want and sell it for your price eventually...it does not matter if it takes an hour or a day to sell...it is all the same.

You do want activity on your stock though otherwise it is not going to move forward smoothly...erratic trading does not chart well so it is not easy to make decisions based on TA.

My criteria is that the stock trades at least 20,000 shares per day on a 90 day average....preferably 100,000 shares but for the right stock I would accept down to 20,000.

#4 Debt to Equity ratio

for most companies debt is a fact of life...but I do not wish to have a long term investment in a company saddled with prohibitive debt...so the range I am going to use for the ratio 0 to 0.2 as my range here....this upper limit is arbitrary but seems right to me.

Having no debt for an commodity company such as in the O&G or mining sector IF there is revenue to back it up. I actually like a little debt in O&G and mining start-ups ... it indicates that there is activity...a lot of exploration companies have no debt and no revenue....I avoid this combination like the plague....they are selling dreams only.

#5 Return on Equity (ttm)

my long term investments must be in companies that turn a profit...I use the "ttm" (trailing 12 months) as at least this has some basis in fact. I don't want to base my analysis on future earnings which frankly are just best "guesses" by analysts that are unknown.

the range of values I chose was over 1%

#6 Price to Earning ratio (ttm)

My range is 5 to 30...this gives me a nice range of companies without including exceptional expectations by investors and at least have a pulse

So there are my criteria and I will do a search and see what shakes out.....later

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July 4 status

Well, short week that it was (Canada exchanges open today...were closed on Tuesday) it was quite satisfying in that it was almost a 2% gain for the week

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highlights for the week are the rise of FP Newspapers from $4.24 last week to $4.43 or almost 5% in 4 days and still rising. Bellatrix Exploration is reviving as well rising from $9.09 last week to $9.64 or about 6% in the same time period.

it was only a couple of weeks ago they were boat anchors...well the anchors are weighing...still a way to go but a couple more weeks like this and we are back to the profitable side...of the two though I think I will be selling FP Newspaper at the first significant decline...I would be doing this with a trailing stop-loss as I am currently using...I will probably raise the value on Monday.

the surprise today was the sale of Bonavista [BNP] today...it was a close call but recovered yesterday but by the end of the day it fell hard and tripped the sale. Here is the history for this stock while in the portfolio

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Well adding the dividends in with the capital gains realizes a decent return for 6 months...I could have got more a month or more earlier but I am happy with this return as is...

********************************

Well now, I have decisions to make as I have about $8000 of cash lying around.

I am toying with a couple of options

#1 I am currently scanning for a new prospect....I should have that scan completed by Monday...(I have done the scan based on the criteria in the last 2 posts and have 38 companies to evaluate...I will be showing those steps in the next couple of posts...if I find a slam dunk in these I will spend some or all of the money.

#2 The TD Bank stock is doing very well...I would like to add another 100 shares to boost it to 500 shares that will cost about $5600

Lakeshore gold is breaking out and I should then add the balance of the money (about $2500 or about 2300 shares).

A lot will depend on the results of that scan....nice options to have though....

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Scanning for a stock cont'd - Scan results

Well I completed the scan and came up with 38 possibles. Bare in mind I have made this scan across all sectors. There are times when I want to select from a specific sector and I would probably vary my selection criteria.

For example, If I were looking for a high tech computer stock I would not limit my P/E range to 5-30...a computer stock with a P/E of 5 would be a pretty dead stock

So here is a screen shot of my scan results in Excel

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the parameter results are shown and the scan results are sorted by share price high to low.

What you are looking at is the first tests I do which are mainly Fundamental in nature. I want to know the business, its website for more info in future. A subjective look at the company's debt and revenue and comments.

This is laborious but I don't mind doing it...I want to find a stock that will be one that I want to hang onto for at least a few months. If you were daytrading this is a waste of time....anything can happen in a day, you need another way to find those candidates. But I have a long term view...I don't want to be frightened of dips in price simply because the market is nervous...those would be buying opportunities. I don't want to be glued to a computer screen trying to read nuances in every dip, rise and fall of the share price...SO I want to find a fundamentally sound company...at least as far as I can determine it (still learning that aspect).

this is the site where I do this kinda work

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

this is the main page and shows TAG Oil [TSX:TAO]....this gives a summary of the company including chart. The chart does not look encouraging but that is not of interest right now...I want to understand its quartrely report data

Balance sheet (quarterly)

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

despite the bad chart....you will note that the company is debt free! No short term debt...no long term debt. This is encouraging but if it has no revenues then this is a dead stock...so it is just 1/2 the story

Income Statement (quarterly)

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Well...well...well....look at that....it HAS a nice rising Operating Revenue AND the Net Revenue is trending up as well. See how it was losing money a year ago...but now it is in the Black

As a result you see I have given it a double A rating in my spreadsheet.

That is as far as I will go right now....later I will resort the companies to show the "A" for debt and revenue and the Double "A"'s will get more attention...if there is only one of them I will look at "AB" and "BA" companies but will discard any that are less than that.

Debt and revenue are that important to me as a long term trader....other long term traders may have different criteria and I would be interested in hearing them....

Back to work

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Scanned stocks go through first cut

OK...several hours later I have arrived at several sets of stocks following a basic Fundamental Analysis

Here is the result

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You can see I have divided them on the basis of Debt/Revenue first...then by share price in each section.

Revenue trumps debt load in my opinion so you can see I favour "BA" stocks over "AB" ones but all will be looked at.

As you can see, we have a nice selection across sectors with O&G stocks leading the way followed by mining....that is because Canadian stocks are dominated by commodities.

you will also note that about half of the "winners" are between $1 - $5....the hated penny stocks

BUT...these stocks have solid fundamentals with respect to debt and revenue. I have not found that stocks in this price range to be very reliable in USA stocks...but it would be a mistake to ignore such stocks in Canada IMHO

Now I will sort through these stocks in the first 3 sections....I have some biases...for example I HATE drug companies and diamond mine companies have burned me in the past....there will have to a pretty compelling reason for me to keep these in the race.

But I am tired now and it is sunny and it is the time of the world famous Calgary Stampede...the heat of the day has gone....time to get out and do something

I hope you find this interesting....comments are welcome

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screening...next step

well you have to pare down the list somehow....so I took each section (not the bottom one) and ran a comparison of performance over the last 2 months and chose the picks that scored over 20% here are the results

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In general I picked only those stocks that ranked over 20% except in the first graphic where I chose HWO.TO which was only 18% in the comparison but look at the sudden rise in the last few weeks .... so I kept it.

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I kept HWO.TO for the last comparison but it lost out to the others in the final comparison.

This is a new procedure for me. I have never been this systematic before...but that is what a fantasy portfolio and Journal is for. Basically I think any of these four could be a choice for long term....But I have to make only one choice so someone has to be the winner

the next step is to look at their charts .... that come next.

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well I have come to one decision

I am entering a limit Buy order for Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG] for 1300 shares @ $1.11/share

This stock is taking off ...or let us say I am extending the gamble that Gold will show some positive movement.

I am stuck on the fence on the new stock to buy from that scan. In the previous post I had written off High Arctic Energy services [TSX:HWO] but on closer examination I am not so sure I should pass it up

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#1 The P&F shows a lot of potential IF the share price can breech the resistance at $5.65...this event will trigger another nice run

#2 You can see the resistance/supports here very easily in this chart. You also see the Slow Sto and MACD rising which usually happens before a bullish outbreak....the BBWidth is still falling so a breakout is not guaranteed until it is rising along with the other 2 indicators

#3 there are mixed messages in this chart...the CMF is not in good shape (Bearish), the RSI is rising (Bullish) and the ADX DI+/- is mildly bullish with the green above the red but the two lines are converging...not diverging...so the bull cancels bear leaving an overall of mildly bullish

#4 the Ichimoku is a little better.... the share price crawled above the cloud and an attempt to return into the cloud was denied, the CCI and OnBal Vol look fine

SO....I will wait to see whether this resistance breech occurs.


Another potential stock is Lucara Diamonds [LUC:TSX]

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CHART #1 This has been an amazingly bullish stock for 2 years now rising from $0.55 to $2.80 falling back to $2.72. There is Nothing wrong with these charts....nothing at all...you have a diamond mine that has suddenly broken out 2 years ago and it has not looked back.

My gut bothers me though...at some point there should be some profit taking...doncha think so???

I am not bothered by the so-called over bought indications of the RSI in Chart #3.... it could stay like that for months...falling below 80 would be mildly bearish...but while it is above it is still bullish to me. The ADX DI +/- is mildly bullish now...it has had a good run but there is a sign that those green/red lines might start converging. The CMF is bullish as it is rebounding from a fall

Chart #2 shows a stutter step in June where the price started in consolidation but it took off again...the indicators are all Bullish...that goes for the Ichimoku chart #4...everything is bullish!!!!!

But this is a diamond mine...I have not had good luck with such mines, though it is South Africa which admittedly has a good history....

Looks like they are finding big diamonds

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

I guess that is it....but my gut bothers me for long term...in a way I would like to see a pullback and consolidation for a while then another breakout....this sounds too-good-to-be-true....but maybe it is my paranoia seeping through {sigh}

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