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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #191 (permalink)
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Gold again

Gold took a huge tumble a while ago and now it has fought back a bit

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But as you can see the rise was stopped by the diagonal resistance so that rise cannot be take seriously at this point.
It has to pass that resistance diagonal to get me excited...tired of that metal teasing me.

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  #192 (permalink)
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Is this Gold Price Rise Real??

Well there has been a bounce in the price of gold and it is currently in the $1290/oz range. This is a significant improvement over its fall to $1200/oz a few weeks ago....the rise may be due to troubles in Iraq...not the Ukraine really as it fell during that initial crisis...there was threat to Europe there but the threat in Iraq is potentially threatening North America more in the spike in oil prices. It is hard to see that being resolved in a hurry unless the USA re-invades that country to put out that fire .... something they are reluctant to do for obvious reasons...

But is this rise in the price of gold sustainable??

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well there is a serious attempt to breach 2 resistances. Today we have breached the diagonal resistance...the day has not finished so it could retrace that gain and it is threatening the dotted resistance at about $1290 but again could fall back from there....if it is successful then IMHO this would be serious ONLY if it passes the dash-dot resistance at $1360.

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this is the outlook of the spot price yesterday...as you can see we breached that resistance line today (assuming it closes above it today....that $1360 resistance is pretty solid and would really signal a true up-trend.

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This chart shows additional resistance in the form of the 50 day SMA which is almost $1290

as far as the price position goes I see it still in consolidation...note the Slow Sto is still under 50 the MACD has yet to be a higher high and the BBWidth is still falling. The BB's are getting tighter and the price is positioned nicely. above the 20daySMA....but it does not suggest breakout to me yet.

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This chart confirms the cautionary note. It has some positive notes in the CMF almost climbing out of the mud and the RSI has a positive slope but the values are not bullish yet...the RSI is only 50 and the ADX is "chaining" in the DI+/- indicating indecision to me.

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The Ichi chart shows there is still a lot of work to do before this rise can be considered to be bullish and sustainable. It is still under that RED cloud, the lower border is at $1300ish confirming other resistance set points, the CCI is positive but weak and the OnBal vol looks better but not earth shaking.

Conclusion

While encouraging, this is not a done-deal...I think there will be a fall back in the next day or so....with the BB's getting more tight...hopefully the price will stay above the 20daySMA as they tighten...then there should be a bounce towards that $1300 resistance.

I don't invest in gold directly, rather in gold mining stocks and these whipsaw under this scenario....I want to see a sustainable trend before I return to my gold stocks....been burned too often by getting in early.

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  #193 (permalink)
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Well now....this surge in the price of gold is for real it seems....Smashing 2 resistances like that is nothing to sneer at....I still want it to pass $1350 before I get back in but it is on the way to challenging that level.

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  #194 (permalink)
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portfolio status June 20/14

Well we are back into the black this week.

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The big winner this week was Kelso Technologies [KLS:TSX] ... it gained $0.69 today (11%)

BNN - Watch TV Online | It's a crude, crude world: why pipelines won't displace rail

Check out the above video link to BNN Business News Network.

This video gives an excellent discussion on the use of rail lines to transport crude oil AND it gives a very positive view of the company - Kelso Technologies Inc and what unique products they have for transportation/retrofit to rail tankers. At minute 4:30 the analyst discusses Kelso Technologies specifically and gives his target of $8/share...

THIS IS A MUST WATCH VIDEO if you are remotely interested in the transportation of Oil in Canada and the USA

this is the only new news on this company and is the reason for the 11% gain in price today and I submit they have the right product for the right time. It is a Canadian company with their manufacturing location in Texas, operations in Illinois and head office in British Columbia

In Canada you would buy [KLS:TSX] and it trades about 200,000 - 300,000 shares per day

In the USA they have a much smaller presence being in the OTCQX...that is a common way small Canadian companies enter the US marketplace. Kelso Technologies Inc. [KEOSF:OTCQX] but it trades small volumes right now .... typically < 50,000

IMHO....this company is an excellent long term play for the future gains....

**************************************************************

I have taken off the stop-loss on FPnewspapers [FP.TSX]

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I no longer fear it falling below $4.10...if it drifts to that level again then I will sell it immediately .... right now I see it going sideways ...the BBwidth has flatlined and is low...the MACD show some positive slope as does the Slow Sto...I believe the worst is over now.


Last edited by Underexposed; June 21st, 2014 at 01:01 AM.
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  #195 (permalink)
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Maybe this Gold price rise is real!!!??

Well the last time I commented on the direction of the price of gold I was completely wrong. Two resistances were broken and the price climbed.

Why am I focused on gold prices...I don't play commodity futures or invest in physical gold (though I admit to having a couple of ounces in 1 oz wafers lying in a safety deposit box...24kt gold chain would have been better but I knew not much 30 years ago...yeah they have been there that long {sigh} )

I follow gold prices because a slight rise in gold prices results a pretty decent price rise in GOLD MINING Stocks. It actually affects anything gold but I like producing mines because the are more predictable.

Here is evidence to what I believe

I am going to compare the price of 4 producing mining stock to the price of gold over the last 6 months.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd [TSX:AEM] current share price: $40.12/share CDN
Gold Corp [TSX:G] ............................current share price: $29.17/share CDN
B2Gold Corp [TSX:BTO] ....................current share price: $ 3.11/share CDN
Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG]................current share price: $ 0.99/share CDN

All of these companies are producing mines and all of them make money...despite the overall drop in the price of Gold since the glory days of $1800+/oz gold. Lakeshore gold is a very weak company in the past that appears to be coming around to being profitable.

I am not a great fan in Sub-$1 shares but it is from there that you can find winners....BUT they must have little or declining debt and increasing Operating Revenues and especially if they are emerging into being profitable.

Here is LSG's balance sheets and income statements

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

this had a huge cost of revenue charge in the 12/2013 quarter which was an Impairment charge relating to lower gold prices, lower Canadian dollar value and reduced reserves/grades.

it is discussed here : Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

LSG is risky but appears to be in recovery and has potential IMHO

Let us look at performance of these companies versus the price of gold

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This chart compares the performance of the above companies versus the price of Gold.

At the beginning of this year Gold started a 2.5 month rise in value...you can see the dramatic rise in all these gold stocks...interesting the rise seems to be the inverse of the share price (more about that later).

But look at what happens at position 2 when the price of Gold falls gradually .... ALL of the share prices fall dramatically...the smaller the share price....the greater the fall....this is important to realize and something I am trying to hammer into my brain .

In April (Pos 3) gold prices rise again...the big mines response was muted (the rise in gold price was smaller) but the lower priced shares responded better....but note the fall of the price of gold (pos 4) as small as it was dramatically affected ALL of the mining stocks.

Now we come to the beginning of this month (Pos 5)...gold is on the rise again....the stock prices of these mines are again on the rise

I think you will agree....there is a relationship between the Mining stock and its commodity...it only makes sense to me.

Let us see how much we make on these small gold price swings.... Let us invest $10,000 in each company on Jan1 and sell on March 15

Ticker ........................... AEM................. G .............. BTO ............... LSG

Jan1 price/share:........ $28.40 ........ $24.00 ......... $2.30 ............ $0.54
Shares bought:............. 352 ............ 417 ............. 4347 ............. 18518
Mar 15 price/share:.... $38.40 ......... $31.50 ........ $3.50 ............ $0.96
profit/share:................ $10.00 ......... $8.50 ......... $1.20 ............ $0.42
overall profit:.............. $3520 ......... $3544 ......... $5216 ............ $7777
% gain:......................... 35% ............ 35% ............ 52% .............. 77.8%

Well this is not an extensive comparison and I took the prices off a chart in a consistent manner but they are not 100% accurate (I was in a hurry.)

It does show though....if you pick a lower priced gold mining stock...a profitable (rising profit) company with low or lowering debt ...the reward is certainly worth the risk...BUT you must be vigilant in watching the trend in the price of gold and sell when it falls.

I am still learning on this point and that is why I am still out of gold stocks at this point. I don't trust this rise and have been burned in the past by jumping on the band wagon too late and not paying attention when it fails.

But if the price rises above $1340....I will be in with both feet...

Hope you find this post interesting.

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  #196 (permalink)
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taking a gamble

Ok...this play depends on the price of Gold continuing to rise. From the previous post you see that Lakeshore Gold Company [TSX:LSG] responds in a very volatile way to the price of Gold. I am buying this stock based on the belief that the price will rise.

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It was not hard to get this stock at $0.99/share today as there was about 1 million shares traded and the day has not ended with the price varying between $0.97 and $1.01

I have enough money in cash to purchase 1750 shares...if it takes off as I hope I will probably sell a loser then add to the shares of LSG and set a stop-loss to trail the gains....I don't set a stop loss now because 1. I don't expect the of gold price to plunge 2. if it does I have no illusions that the price will correct and will pull the plug on LSG.

$1700 is not a major portion of my portfolio and it will not go to wallpaper if it declines....based at my look at their fundamentals

EDIT: I was a little carried away and "math challenged"...I don't have the money for 1750 shares...My phantom broker gave me hell and limited my purchase to 1700 shares...would my real broker was so understanding...hahaha....I will correct that graphic in the next post.


Last edited by Underexposed; June 23rd, 2014 at 03:29 PM.
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  #197 (permalink)
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Status June 27

Well we eked out a positive week...$50 but I'll take it

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You will note that I have not changed things much....the addition of Lakeshore Gold Corp [TSX:LSG] is the only really major play this week and that has done NOTHING , for the reason that the price of Gold has been flat all week. I see good things for this stock but without the help of an increase in the price of Gold....nothing will happen.

I well discuss the status and future of each stock in this portfolio over the weekend....until then

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  #198 (permalink)
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Portfolio review and comments

Well, it is time I did a comprehensive review of the stocks in my play portfolio. I will not do a fundamental review since for some stocks they do not have their first quarter reports in. That is the nuisance of historical fundamental data...you are always working on information that is at least 3 months old at best.

Fundamental data , for me is an information source for long term...charting is basically real time decisions as a result.

I am going to just follow the list in my spreadsheet in the previous post

Lund Mining Corporation [TSX:LUN.TO]

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As can be seen here in circle #1 the share price was in an extended consolation after a nice rise ending on the last week of May. When you add in the indicator data of circle#2 this di not look good since the share price stayed below the 20daySMA ...the Slow Sto and MACD were in a long decline...the BBwidth was encouraging though as despite this decline in the Slow Sto and MACD the BBwidth had a muted response.

NOW, you see an uptick in price which is pretty strong and firmly above the 20daySMA...there are nice upticks in the slow Sto and MACD as well...the BBwidth is still muted but this reversal of the MACD and SLo Sto is encouraging

the circle #3 in the Ichimoku chart shows that the price had dipped into the green cloud but has successfully fought out of this glue...the OnBal Volume indicator has resumed a positive slope after being basically flatlined during the May/June decline...the CCI is mildly bullish too.

Conclusion

There is a possibility that this is a head-fake but I believe this to be a low probability. The chart looks to me to be setting up for a positive breakout......HOLD


Lakeshore Gold Corporation [TSX:LSG.TO]

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I am not going to spend much time on these charts as I just added LSG a few days ago.

This is a Gold play...you can see by comparing the LSG chart to that of the spot price of Gold that the two charts follow eachother. A breakout in the price of gold will trigger a similar response in LSG.

Conclusion

Watch the price of Gold like a hawk...for now....HOLD


That is all for this post....I will add the other stocks in stages as the weekend progresses.

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  #199 (permalink)
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Oil and gas stocks

The previous post evaluated the Mining stocks in this portfolio and now we will look at the Oil and Gas stocks.

Bonavista Energy Corp [TSX:BNP]

This is one of the first stocks chosen for this portfolio and contributes a dividend of $0.04/share

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this stock has been limping sideways for about 6 weeks now. The BB's are narrowing as shown in the main chart as well as the lowering of the BBwidth. Currently this chart is mildly Bearish...but that still could change for the better with the narrowing BB's. The hopeful signs are that the MACD and Slow Sto may be stopping their declines and are not really in bearish territory...yet. Also note the 2 doji in the prices...this is indecision IMHO and could be the start of a reversal.

The Ichimoku chart is bearsh as well...both indicators are not looking good and the price is below the junction of the red/green clouds. The only saving grace here is the clouds are currently quite thin at this point.

Conclusion

It may be time to take the small profit and dividends gained here and move onto another stock. BUT I will give it a chance to recover and reverse its trend as the indications are not strong at this point.

But I don't trust it right now....there is a support at $16.00....So this will be a hold with a Limit STOP-LOSS set at $16.00 - $15.95

Bellatrix Exploration [TSX:BXE]

Frankly this stock has been a disappointment for me. I like the company fundamentally but they went and made that "announced bought deal offering of 18,170,000 common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares") at a price of $9.50 per Common Share". This was quite the dilution and set the price for a while at around $9.50 while these shares get absorbed.

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You can see that decline in the above chart as well there appears to be the possibility of a double bottom at the $8.90...so perhaps we have reached a point of recovery. the BBWidth does appear to be as low as it will go....the Slow Sto is about as low as it can go and the MACD basically flat for a month or so.

The Ichimoku is not the greatest looking...the indicators are full on bear and the share price is far below the red/green clouds.

Conclusion

I am on the fence here...it does not look good chartwise but there IS a reason for the drop to this level and that is that stupid "bought deal offering" dropping the price and diluting the shares. On the other hand...perhaps there is a double bottom here at $8.90....This is a hold right now until this squeeze of the bb's is resolved....I will set a LIMIT STOP-LOSS @ $8.85 - $8.90 I am accepting a potential greater loss here but I will keep this stock in a watchlist as I do like it long term.

Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:BNP]

This company is a money earner on the dividend side with a 6.29% yield...but it also is doing pretty well as a capital gains as well. From the analyst point of view there have been less than excited following

Viewing Company Pengrowth Energy | StockChase

but the stock climbs slowly and has never defaulted on its dividend.

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the share price is in consolidation right now after a nice run....it did what normally happens after a run...dropping to the 20daySMA but rebounded nicely off of that. The MACD and Slow Sto remain in bullish territory...the BBWidth is falling reflecting the tightening of the BB's...it will be at least 10-15 days before there will be a major surge/decline.

The Ichimoku could not be better...High above Green clouds and the indicators below are full on bullish

Conclusion

this is a strong HOLD...IF the other two oil stocks fail and the stop-losses are tripped I will buy at least 1000 more shares of PGF...this will be a winner for quite a while IMHO

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  #200 (permalink)
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Canadian Banking Stock


Canadian Banking stocks are pretty solid. There are the "Big 5" being the Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD], Royal Bank of Canada [[TSX:RY], Bank of Montreal [TSX:BMO], Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce [TSX:CM] and Scotia Bank (Bank of Nova Scotia) [TSX:BNS]

These banks are also on the NYSE for Americans viewing this journal.

To show you the performance of Canadian banking stocks versus major American financial institutions ,Bank of America[BAC], JP Morgan [JPM], Wells Fargo Corp [WFC] and CitiGroup [C] consider the following chart which follows the fortunes of these banks through the financial crisis of 2008-2009 through to today.

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the only American bank to outperform the Canadian banks is Wells Fargo Corp with JP Morgan at the bottom of the Canadian group of banks...Bank of America and Citigroup are far down the list.

Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]

I guess I am a bit biased in choosing this bank stock...after all I have dealt with TDWaterhouse their discount brokerage for the last 10 years with no complaints and have banked with them for over 30 years. But that aside, as can be seen in the above chart it has been a solid performer.

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this is a Bullish stock that has been in consolidation for the past 3 weeks or so. The BBwidth is tight, the Slow Sto is in Bullish territory with an uptick, the MACD has stopped its decline....a breakout is in the offing any day now

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The Ichimoku chart is bullish too though a bit more subdued...it needs that boost in Share price to clear the clouds on the horizon....the OnBal Vol is clearly bullish the CCI appears to be rising.

CONCLUSION

This is a HOLD. It is an expensive stock so it is difficult with limited funds to add to this stock in a significant way but I would add another 100 shares probably if one of the oil companies with stop losses tripped a sale. It is not a glamourous rocket in share price but it has a decent quarterly dividend and a nice slow capital gain. This will be an extremely long time hold.

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