Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal - futures io
futures io



Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Underexposed with 471 posts (344 thanks)
    2. looks_two deaddog with 41 posts (11 thanks)
    3. looks_3 jackbravo with 20 posts (10 thanks)
    4. looks_4 bobwest with 16 posts (23 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one bobwest with 1.4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two ratfink with 0.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Underexposed with 0.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 deaddog with 0.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 49,203 views
    2. thumb_up 433 thanks given
    3. group 23 followers
    1. forum 609 posts
    2. attach_file 688 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

(login for full post details)
  #101 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have been away for a couple of days so this is the time to catch up. The major issue this week was the sale of Kelso Technologies KLS.V.



As you can see this is the first sale for a capital gain...but a nice one it was as it wiped out the other losses. Though this is a one month hold, KLS was a swing trade for me...I really feel this company (which upgrades railway oil tankers) is a long term hold. In my real holdings (as opposed to this fantasy one) I sold as well. It is a huge experiment for me as I don not normally sell after a run and rebuy on a dip....



So far this stock is not behaving as though this run is over. It should be headed back to the 20daySMA but it is not. As far as consolidation goes it is acting still pretty bullish as the Slo Sto is still high and the MACD is not declining. I will kick myself around the block if it does not dip enough to buy it again cheaper than I sold it for. My relationship with this company is not over...but I do not chase stocks...I will wait for a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands.

Here is the cash transactions for this account to date.



As you can see I have $28k, jingling in my pocket. I will have to decide what to do with it ...I will probably do this over the weekend. You will note at the top there is a spot for dividends. Bonavista Energy [TSX:BNP] is responsible for the entry there for $35.00. I will get another dividend for the same amount in a week or so....I will also get a dividend from TD Bank this month as well.

As you can see, BNP is performing very well



It is at 11+% gain so far not including dividends....there are more gains to come.

Is Gold on the move??



Well the plummet of last month has halted and the spot price has done as expected in that it has risen to the 20daySMA. Today (not shown here) the price is breaking through that 20daySMA but the next real serious resistance is at $1350 as discussed in my Apr 4 post.

The Slo Sto and the MACD are trending positive now which is good but a breakout is not there until the BBwidth falls to around 5....so I expect the price to wander sideways for a while as this happens. Having said this though my Gold stocks are recovering .

More tomorrow......

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #102 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Back in February when I first started this journal I discussed this company



We put play money into it at that time but it did not work out and in Early March I sold it taking a 5% loss. (see the company history table in the previous post.



Well the stock has recovered as can be seen above ...It is challenging that solid resistance at $5.40...as I discussed in that previous post...IF it passes this resistance we will see a bullish run and this continued attack looks good to me.



the signs are all there for the breakout....see the rising Slo Sto...the rising MACD and in the last 2 days the sudden rise in the BBwidth (the Bollinger bands expansion.) there is our buy signal



this is a confirming chart...note the rising slope to the RSI...the bullish divergence of the ADX DI+/- and the improved CMF.

It is April 11 9:50 MST and I will enter a limit bid at $5.38 for 2000 shares of LUN.TO

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #103 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Oooops I jumped the gun on that bid

I checked a L2 chart with a 5 min interval on LUN.TO



So it has dropped to $5.33...so this will be my limit bid price

2000 shares at $5.33 for Lundin Mines [TSX:LUN]

NOTE: Always check real time in L2 before placing your bid....I try to do this

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #104 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I got my Lundin Mining at $5.33 as I said....in reality I also added it to my REAL portfolio as well.

I have explained my reasoning earlier but I thought I would reinforce it with a look at an more coarse P&F chart



Yes I know that we have approached this $5.40 resistance before...but this coarser view shows you how important this resistance is. See how long this resistance level has been in existence...it dates back to Jan/2012...2 years!!!! It is like the Great wall of China, IMHO

This is not a money losing pump and dump...this mining company MAKES money and has a reasonable debt

Balance Sheet

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

You can see that this company carries very little debt at a combined Short and long term debt of $4 million

Income Statement

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

You can see that over that past 3 quarters a steady increase in operating revenue, gross profit and net revenue (net revenue increase from $17Million to $44Million.

Not too shabby for a base metal mine of Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel

So what has been holding this company's price back....well, when you are considering a mining stock you have to consider the price of the commodity(s) it mines and the prices of these metals have been depressed for the last few years.



See how the metal prices are still depressed over the past 5 years...all of them.

Look at the 6 month charts....see how there was a spike in Lead Zinc Nickle prices in February...that is where we made Our first purchase in this blog....then the prices for all metals except Nickel fell hard....and the price for LUN.TO did as well.

Now look at the 60 day charts...all of the metals are rising again...so this company will get more money for their efforts..(or at least that is the theory )

SO .... for me anyway....the risk of this resistance causing another failure is worth the reward for the potential gain if we pass and close above $5.40.

I could sit back and wait for that closure over $5.40...if I was conservative that is what I would do...it is depends on your tolerance for risk.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	apr11 status.png
Views:	35
Size:	67.0 KB
ID:	143707  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #105 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I meant to do this in the last post but got carried away discussing Lundin Mining

Here is the status of the play money account



We lost a bit of ground this week but then the DJI, NASD, TSX and TSXVenture indices have not been going gang busters either.

Nordion [TSX:NDN] is a bit of a puzzle. I would have expected to see the price edge to selling price ($13.00 CDN) of the company since it was announced to be sold a week or so ago....but instead it has been falling back a little.

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Hmmm...there seems to be a change in plan....they have postponed the meeting to vote on the sale until June from the planned date of April 29....this may not be the slam dunk they thought it would be. I will still hang on.

The price of Gold edges higher but seems to have trouble with a minor resistance at $1320...it will be interesting to see if it rises higher as the stock indices fall.

I have given up for now chasing Noranda Income Fund...instead of falling to $5.10 it has risen and I don't expect it to fall to that point any more....I will study to see if the timing is right to buy at the current price over the weekend. Otherwise I will look for another stock

Have a good weekend

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #106 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have various sources for finding stock. I use various screeners provided by my trading platform, TD Waterhouse. They have quite a few...most of them I don't think of very much but if they return stocks with prices between $1-$10 which is my usual hunting range

then I will check out their fundamentals...My rules here are pretty simple:

when looking at their balance sheets/income statements.

- If they have no debt but no income...I reject them..this happens often in exploration companies for metals and oil....they are selling dreams and I am not much of a dreamer.

- If they have some debt but have at least operating income (they don't have to make a profit...yet) I will check them out further. If they are losing money then I want to see less and less loss with each quarter, this indicates to me anyway that the company is struggling to become profitable.

this is common with startup mines and Oil and Gas operations...there are debts incurred from building infrastructure while developing a mine or suite of O&G wells...it takes time to pay this debt off and you can find some nice $1-$5 so-called pennies this way.

- If they have increasing debt...even though they are making good coin, I want to dig deeper to find out why...If it is not due to expansion or some other good reason that is easy to find I reject them. If their net income can service that debt...I might do a TA on their shares.

I also look at expert opinion, primarily from this site that takes excerpts of expert comment from a number of business news sources.

Viewing Expert Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI | StockChase

Jeff Parent is a TA type of guy, so I like looking at his comments but there are several others that I like. As you can see these people comment on a number of companies...I don't really like their most recent comments...I like predictions they have made a couple of months earlier....then I first check out to see how their predictions went with reality...if they are pretty consistent with what really happened then they join my list of trusted experts on this site

But I don't just take that one expert opinion and act on it...I click on the company name or ticker and read all the other expert opinions commenting on this company and arrive at a consensus

Once I find a stock in the range I like and if it passes the fundamental sniff test....then I will do a full suite of technical charts that I have developed and take a consensus of the indicators/overlays and if the timing looks right...I will make a purchase or put the stock on a watch list til the the true colors of their direction is revealed.

I am looking at a couple of stocks now

Essential Energy Services Ltd [TSX:ESN] - an oilfield services/drilling company.
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE} - An Alberta natural gas company

Both are liked by Mr. Parent and they pass my fundamental sniff test...I will make a decision by trading day Monday and show the charts of the winner..

Edit: I guess my title for this post jumped the gun a bit....I have narrowed it down to two stocks...but not picked one yet.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #107 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

ok...time to make a decision on which to put this fantasy money into.

First, fundamentally it is hard to choose a winner

Essential Energy Services Ltd [TSX:ESN]

Balance sheet...the company is carrying about $40million in debt but they have done so for about a year now

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Income Statement - Operating revenue, Gross profit and Net revenue are rising nicely over the last 3 quarters.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE]

Balance sheet...the company is carrying about $40omillion in debt...ten times more than ESN.TO

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Income Statement - Operating revenue, Gross profit and Net revenue are also rising nicely over the last 3 quarters but the Net revenue looks to be higher and more stable.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

TA

Here are side by side comparison of their respective charts



BXE is on a very bullish run since Jan 2013...there is support at $8.60 and now the resistance target is $12.00 which could be weak a stronger resistance can be found around $13.00.

By comparison ESN is recovering from a drop in price in Dec/Jan...but note the announcement of a Low Pole Warning this is a hint but not a definite that the stock will turn bullish soon. I take such computer announcements with a grain of salt but it is comforting to see such a prediction. Support is solid between $2.65 - $2.70...resistance is first at $3.05 (weak) and then $3.15 (stronger)



Nothing bearish in either of these charts, both are on a bullish breakout.



Things are bullish for the above chart too. Both charts have a positive slope to the RSI. The ADX DI+/- divergence is more pronounced in BXE than ESN. The CMF is better looking in the BXE but the CMF in ESN is pulling out of the mud...not a bad sign here



Again...there is little to choose between these stocks in this Ichimoku chart and Onbal vol and CCI....

Conclusion:

I am going to go with Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE]....the P&F chart is what tips the scales for me....the price is above a resistance and looks forward to about a 20% gain before it reaches the next resistance.

Essential Energy Services Ltd [TSX:ESN] On the other hand must fight through some resistances in the short term before it can really start performing.

The income in BXE looks good to me..a higher debt than ESN but it looks fine from an outside view.

So at the opening on Monday Apr 14/14, I will make a limit bid for

1500 shares of Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE] @ $9.92

we shall see how this decision will go....ESN goes on my watch list to see if it passes that final resistance at $3.15

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #108 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

{sigh} I picked the right stock but it took off like a shot gaining 16 cents at the bell. I don't like chasing stocks. Iwill leave my bid open for the week...if the price falls back to near $10 or less I will consider purchasing it.

This is not the only stock around ESN has stayed flat...I will watch that one to see if it passes at least that first resistance I saw...If it does I will consider buying it as it will have a nice shot at a decent breakout.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #109 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well not chasing is working out so far....the price is approaching $10 again



I am following it in L2 here and it looks like it will go below $10....here kitty, kitty,kitty

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #110 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

It looks like I will get my bid at $9.92



I just took a quick look at this L2 chart and it is at $9.92 right now...Yippie!!!

the benefits of L2 chart monitoring and not falling to emotion and chasing a stock....Since this is a long term journal I have the luxury of taking my time...It could still fall further but I don't mind as I got the stock at a price of my choosing....this is a good stock and will rise in the future.

Nnnnniiiiiiccceee kitty

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #111 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well that was quite a fall to about $9.64. the good news is

1. that I got my bid price at $9.92
2. that I did not yield to emotion and chase that stock in early morning to buy it at the HOD of $10.11

the bad news is that it kept falling to eventually halt at $9.64



It could be that this run since the end of Feb may be entering a consolidation phase but this does not bother me long term. I can find no news explaining this fall and I note that most other O&G stocks also suffered a dip today so my analysis is the same...for what it is worth ESN.TO suffered a similar drop down over 5% today whereas BXE.to dropped half that percentage.

Life goes on.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #112 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

a) BXE.TO

well BXE.To rebounded to end today at $9.96....so fater this roller coaster ride of the last 2 days we are back where we almost started...we are in the black to the tune of a nickel on this stock. as you can see the chart looks good again.



You can see how the MACD and BBwidth have resumed their positive slopes and the Slow Sto remains above 80

And this is important to observe...simply the fact that the share price plummeted is not a reason to panic if the indicators give a muted response.

See how the Slow Sto remains in the so-called "overbought" region. It has been there for about a month...If you were a follower of a Slow Sto with these parameters and nothing else...this would have been a month long sell signal traditionally. But wanting the other indicators in this chart to arrive at a consensus is important.

Normally the Slow Sto, leads the way whether it is a bullish or bearish situation...the fact that the Slow Sto remains stuck above the value of over 80 in the Slow Sto is good....I would be more worried if the value of the Slo Sto dropped under 80.

So I believe this is the start of higher share prices

b) Gold

Well Gold stalled again and so has my gold stocks as can be seen in the following chart



The recent fall of the share price allows us to draw a diagonal resistance line...as well as showing us a primary support line (which seems strong due to the number of touches and rebound.



you can see the support and resistance levels in the above chart....there is a pinch coming and there should be a break up/down coming.

NOTE the position of BBwidth right now.....it is poised above 4 which is where breakouts occur...with the slope of the line it is clear to me that the break/up/down of this spot price of gold will occur in the next 5-10 business days

c) KLS.V

Keep an eye on this stock....it is making its way through the current consolidation in a very strong manner. as can been seen here.



Keeping in mind what I had said about the BBwidth and spot price of Gold.... the break up/down of KLS.V will not happen for 2-3 weeks right now....I hope it makes a dip below $5.00 where it was last was before we sold it, If it does then I will scratch up some fantasy money (probably by selling NDN.TO)

But we shall wait.

Underexposed

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #113 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...I am pretty pat with my fantasy portfolio right now...

there are some issues with the stocks in this group but it will be a week or so before a real decision needs to be made...Specifically with my gold stocks (BTO.TO and SSL.TO) which depends on the rise of the price of gold and my health services stock Nordion Inc (NDN.TO) which is supposed to be going to be sold at about $13cdn/share but the stock retreated to $12.42 from $12.75 AND the stockholder vote on the sale was to be two weeks from now and is now postponed to some time in June (this smells rotten to me)

So...I am building a watch list for this portfolio.

As I mentioned above I have Kelso Technologies [TSXV:KLS] on watch while it goes through consolidation.

But I need a few others....

I know there are members that regularly read my posts as I see the numbers of views rise with each new post.

I wonder if anyone would like to suggest a stock to keep a watch on...it can be American or Canadian. Only Canadian stocks would be considered for the fantasy portfolio here but in reality I do also have a small USA dollar account so I do have interest in American stocks as well.

So...If you have a stock that you wish to suggest have an opinion. I would love to do a complete reading...looking at basic fundamentals of the stock as well as the full monty on the charts that I use. I think that would be instructive and it helps me as well.

Why does it help us? Well beyond the obvious that we find a really good opportunity to invest, it also improves my stock analysis (and hopefully yours as well). I have done this in other websites many many times with pretty good results. Also when I do these readings I find new and better ways of looking at things...this is how my analysis has evolved to the state it is today.

So feel free to offer a stock ticker for us to look at...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #114 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

the following table shows that we are very slightly negative for the week at this point.



The major problem is the price of gold affecting B2Gold and Sandstrom Gold. Where it rising these stocks would be rising as well.. I don't feel worried about them at present.

No takers on my offer to do a chart reading??? What have you to lose to test me???

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #115 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received

Here's a penny that worth a look.

Tree Island Steel. TSL.TO

Recovering from the housing crash. Not much market for nails when no one is building houses. The cut their dividend a few years back and are slowly digging there way out of debt.

Revenues are increasing and debt is decreasing.

I own this one as a semi long term play.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #116 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
Here's a penny that worth a look.

Tree Island Steel. TSL.TO

Recovering from the housing crash. Not much market for nails when no one is building houses. The cut their dividend a few years back and are slowly digging there way out of debt.

Revenues are increasing and debt is decreasing.

Thanks DD...Tree Island Steel used to be a Investment Trust it seems under the name Tree Island Wire Income Fund and I suppose it discontinued its distribution shortly after 2007 when such trusts were converted to normal companies when Harper flip flopped on his promise to allow such companies to continue.

Fundamental Analysis

I looked at its balance sheet and I find that their debt load has suddenly shifted from long term to short term. It is still the same amount for the last year (total debt of about $30million but now $16M is short term...I don't see a great reduction in the last year though annually it has reduced for the last 3 years.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

From an income POV here is a summary of their income statements for the last year on a quarterly basis

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

their operating income seems to be fairly constant at about $35-40Million. this last reported quarter sees them hit with a pretty high "interest expense". This affected their bottom line severely sending them into the red. Is that because of the re-alignment of half of their debt to short term...I don't know without digging more into their last report.

in their news there is an announcement of a reverse split coming

https://www.treeisland.com/sites/default/files/news-release/2014-03-14%20Tree%20Island%20Steel%20Announces%20Share%20Consolidation.pdf

this split has not been ratified yet...that will be done on May 14th.

While it is true that a reverse split does not change your holding equity in the company other than having fewer shares...I am not a great fan of being in a stock that has such an announcement. personally speaking.

I do see what you mean about the company retiring debt now....this has come in the new year and is not reported in any quarterly report yet.

News Releases | Tree Island Steel

Technical analysis

1) Point and Figure chart

I usually start with P&F chart...this gives a good overview of the stock's performance and is useful in establishing support/resistance levels.



this stock certainly has given itself a rebirth since 2012 and recently it has performed well since August of 2013 when it was $0.55

Right now however, it is dancing on the horizontal support line at $1.10 and March has seen a rise to $1.38 and the price has fallen to its present level at $1.10... If this support fails then the next support will be at $0.93 and that looks to be a very solid support. The resistance above its current position is between $1.20-1.23

Note the computer generated warning in the upper left (Double bottom breakdown). this is because the share price breached that $1.10 support in April though it has recovered since.

Conclusion: mildly bearish current support $1.10, secondary support $0.93 / resistance $1.20 - 1.23

2) Trigger Chart

I call this a trigger chart because it tells me when a break up/down will probably occur as well as when a rise or fall in a current run may end.



you can see the drift in that sales price...that 50daySMA acted as a support for a while but that appears to be breaking down...the price has fallen below the 50daySMA and now it seems to be a resistance line.

The Slow Sto is as low as it can go almost....it has been in decline since early March ...... Bearish

The MACD has also been in decline for the same period of time and now fallen below zero ...... Bearish

The BBwidth is interesting....if you look at previous lows the current position of the BBwidth is as low as it has ever been....I am amazed that a breakout has not occurred yet....it this case it would be a bearish breakout

Right now...if the BBwidth turned positive there would be a sudden drop in price...you can see that secondary support at $0.93-0.95....that may catch a fall as it is strong but it could fall further to around $0.85 too.

Conclusion: Bearish

3) Sentiment chart

I call this my sentiment chart as it gives me an idea of whether a future move may be positive or negative.



My immediate impression looking at this chart is neutrality

the swings of the CMF have settled down there are no extremes any more for a couple of months...either good or bad..... Neutral

The RSI slope has settled out at 50 and flatlined there...but it was negative in getting there so.... Neutral Bearish

The ADX DI +/- is slowly tightening....it is still bullish but that strength is declining daily ... it is not showing a bearish cross YET where the red crosses green...but it could happen in a heartbeat..... Neutral Bullish

Conclusion: Neutral

3) Ichimoku chart plus

By plus, I mean I added two more indicators at the bottom.

The On Bal Volume is dead-assed neutral

The CCI is bearish neutral...it is not into the mud but flirting with it.

The Ichimoku chart itself shows the price mired in a green cloud... the lower border is a support and if it falls below that cloud it would not be good as the fight to rise above that cloud would be rough....Look at the thin red and blue lines...the red is at the top of the green cloud while the blue is buried in the green and diverging. This is quite bearish suggesting to me that the price will soon break through the bottom of the cloud. ....Bearish

Conclusion: Bearish

Overall Conclusion

This is a company that requires a real turnaround in the economy to reach its pre-2008 levels. However, in Canada construction is on the rebound but it is tenuous....you can see that in their operating revenue which is pretty consistent quarter to quarter. But in looking at their website then certainly have a great construction product mix...it is not just nails...it is wire for fencing, rebar ties and meshes...etc. They will always make money and as a long term bet it is probably not bad.

However, on a short term basis...there is a correction coming. It could be profit taking....it could be negative reaction to the proposed 2:1 reverse split in May...Personally I hate reverse splits but I can see them wanting to stay afloat above $1.00 now that they battled there.

To me this is not a Buy right now as I think there is a correction coming.....long term it might be fine and perhaps you could use the dip to add to your position....If it were me I would take my profits and then watch them for the eventual turnaround and buy in again.

There is a correction coming IMHO and it could happen any day.

I hope this analysis helps you.

PS: I see that TCM.TO has staged a nice recovery from a low of $2.35 and it will challenge that resistance at $3.20- 3.25...I think it will stop there...again though.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #117 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

the following table shows our status as of Good Friday Apr 18 (no trading today)



We basically broke even this week. The boat anchor in this portfolio are the gold stocks - BTO.TO and SSL.TO.

So why don't I sell them?? Answer: I have not given up on the price of gold...consider the following chart.



You can see the resistance/support triangle that has formed. We are hugging the support line right now but we are approaching the apex of this triangle so the price can break up or down at any time



This chart shows the Bollinger Bands (BBs) are finally getting tight to the point that a breakout can happen. The previous rise in price happened during consolation time....during this time it aims at the 20daySMA In this case it overshot it but as you can see it now has fallen back to this point. The On Bal Vol is basically neutral...the CCI is bearishly neutral but it is being in that cloud that is a nuisance

Is it not prime for a breakout??? No, it is not!!!

The slow Sto and MACD must lead the way first....if the BBs were to diverge now (BBwidth suddenly rises) this would not be good as the Slow Sto and MACD are currently negative slope. The spot price is in a decent position right now as it is right near the 20daySMA...if it were hugging the lower BB I would be more anxious



this is a pretty neutral so far....the CMF is improving from the depths of the mud....the RSI is very flat on the 50 line and the ADX DI+/- avoided a bearish cross at the last minute but all these indicators could change in a heartbeat...either way.



The Ichimoku chart shows the real problem....We are stuck in that green cloud.

Going back to that FinViz chart you see I created a dotted blue line....in the event we get a bullish breakout I see that line as a resistance to be passed $1350....well the top of that green cloud is also $1350 confirming that resistance point....this constantly fascinates me how 2 completely different charts arrive at a similar conclusion. The borders of any cloud are resistance/support levels depending on the direction of the price. Green clouds are better than red ones...but you want to be above all clouds.

I am encouraged by the thin blue/red lines...the blue is rising to the flat red one...it is a long way to being bullish but at least the two lines are not diverging anymore.

So...the upshot of this is....I have not given up on the Golds....especially with the situation with Russia right now. Amazing how the media controls our focus on world events...you hardly hear of anything about the Middle East lately.

Have a good long weekend

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #118 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I am redoing this analysis with an update...I don't know what happened to my charts in that previous post...somehow they disappeared or I never embedded them in the first place ({sigh} alzheimer's is a terrible disease

I will start with my previous conclusion


Underexposed View Post
However, on a short term basis...there is a correction coming. It could be profit taking....it could be negative reaction to the proposed 2:1 reverse split in May...Personally I hate reverse splits but I can see them wanting to stay afloat above $1.00 now that they battled there.

To me this is not a Buy right now as I think there is a correction coming.....long term it might be fine and perhaps you could use the dip to add to your position....If it were me I would take my profits and then watch them for the eventual turnaround and buy in again.

There is a correction coming IMHO and it could happen any day.

Well as I predicted that correction did not take long to happen....today is the day it starts for real as you will see in the following charts.

1) P&F chart

the first is my P&F chart which I use to establish support/resistance on a macro level



Here is my previous conclusion on this chart


Underexposed View Post

Right now however, it is dancing on the horizontal support line at $1.10 and March has seen a rise to $1.38 and the price has fallen to its present level at $1.10... If this support fails then the next support will be at $0.93 and that looks to be a very solid support. The resistance above its current position is between $1.20-1.23

Note the computer generated warning in the upper left (Double bottom breakdown). this is because the share price breached that $1.10 support in April though it has recovered since.

Conclusion: mildly bearish current support $1.10, secondary support $0.93 / resistance $1.20 - 1.23

Well as you can see that tenuous support at $1.10 has really broken now...this now becomes the resistance...it should be a tough support as we were dancing on the edge of $1.10 for a long time as a support...we are headed now toward the $0.93 support now

2) Trigger Chart



here is my previous conclusion on this chart that I use to show a break up/down.


Underexposed View Post
The Slow Sto is as low as it can go almost....it has been in decline since early March ...... Bearish

The MACD has also been in decline for the same period of time and now fallen below zero ...... Bearish

The BBwidth is interesting....if you look at previous lows the current position of the BBwidth is as low as it has ever been....I am amazed that a breakout has not occurred yet....it this case it would be a bearish breakout

Right now...if the BBwidth turned positive there would be a sudden drop in price...you can see that secondary support at $0.93-0.95....that may catch a fall as it is strong but it could fall further to around $0.85 too.

Conclusion: Bearish

well the bearish conclusion has proven itself....see the Slow Sto has flattened out (cannot go much lower) the negative slope to the MACD has accelerated now and there is a slight upturn to the BBwidth slope

this is the beginnings of the bearish slide

3) Sentiment chart




Underexposed View Post
I call this my sentiment chart as it gives me an idea of whether a future move may be positive or negative.

My immediate impression looking at this chart is neutrality

the swings of the CMF have settled down there are no extremes any more for a couple of months...either good or bad..... Neutral

The RSI slope has settled out at 50 and flatlined there...but it was negative in getting there so.... Neutral Bearish

The ADX DI +/- is slowly tightening....it is still bullish but that strength is declining daily ... it is not showing a bearish cross YET where the red crosses green...but it could happen in a heartbeat..... Neutral Bullish

not much change in the CMF but the RSI has dipped below 50 and shows a new neg slope and in the ADX DI +/- is now showing the beginning of a bearish cross...the red has now crossed the green so it is mildly bearish now...if the red keeps rising and green keeps falling the sentiment will be increasing bearish.

3) Ichimoku chart plus




Underexposed View Post

The On Bal Volume is dead-assed neutral

The CCI is bearish neutral...it is not into the mud but flirting with it.

The Ichimoku chart itself shows the price mired in a green cloud... the lower border is a support and if it falls below that cloud it would not be good as the fight to rise above that cloud would be rough....Look at the thin red and blue lines...the red is at the top of the green cloud while the blue is buried in the green and diverging. This is quite bearish suggesting to me that the price will soon break through the bottom of the cloud. ....Bearish

Well the OnBal Volume is unchanged for now but the CCI has bearishly retreated into the mud.

The Ichimoku chart really changed....it is full on bear now....it has broken through the lower border of the green cloud. Being under a green cloud is better than being under a red one but not by much IMHO

Conclusion

well, there you have it...one for one so far...though I am sorry that it is bearish for Deaddog. Of course this could be a head fake and it could turn around but I don't think so. I definitely think it will challenge the $0.93 level. At that point one would take a look to see if the fall will stop there....

Would it reverse at that point? Not necessarily so. Usually (as with a positive run) at the end of a run the price will drift back to the 20daySMA where it will wander around it until the BBWidthget low again (ie. Bollinger bands tighten) and we must then evaluate if this would be a rest and further fall or a reversal.

If anyone else has a ticker to look at feel free. Though I don't have all my tools available for European charts I do have alternate charting available to try non-North American stocks though they present more of a challenge to me....I like challenges though

PS: In taking the quotation I find that the charts were there but not displayed...so I did not forget. Perhaps there were too many...I don't know

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #119 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

If you look at my "State of the Union" for this phantom portfolio you will see that I have $2800 or so in cash on hnad.

I was screening for stocks in the $1 - $3 range and Kinda like Silvercorp Mining [TSX:SVM]

I won't do a complete analysis here right now due to time constraints but I will do later. I will say that this is a bottomfeeding play on a silver/gold mining stock in China which has no debt and makes money but with the depressed prices on Silver/Gold and production issues that may be resolved it looks to be recovering.

I will show this "trigger chart" of mine and it looks ripe for a positive breakout



the MACD has been rising steadily, the Slow Sto looks to be breaking out, the BBwidth is VERY LOW...the BBs are tighter than ever and a breakout or down is pending RFN.

This is a bit of a flyer and probably will be a swing trade of a few weeks at most but who knows

I will enter an order for 1000 shares of Silvercorp Mining [TSX:SVM] @ $2.20/share valid for this week

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #120 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I caught the Silvercorp Mining order at the opening...it closed at $2.26 so we are off to a good start.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #121 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I have been doing this for about 2 complete months now and IMHO this is typical of long term trading. At least it is typical of my experience.

There are ups and downs in individual stocks and as long as they are not out of line you tolerate dips and in some instances you even may add to them on the dips if you believe that whatever caused the dip is an overreaction. For the most part though I prefer to ride out the dips just in case the fall is real and continuing.

I prefer to add shares to a stock that is rising in price. It is usually safer that way.

the objective is to move forward as collective effort...it is slow steady gains. Personally I am happy with a gain of 5 - 7 percent on the year....After paying off my living expenses of food/shelter/clothing and entertainment

As you can see we have about a $5700 (5.7%)gain after 2 months...if this trend continues we will make about $35,000 for the year. So I guess what I am saying if you want to live on the money you make from the Market you would have to make a much larger return. In other words, $100,000 while it sounds like a lot of money...it is small potatoes if you are using the returns from this initial poke to live off of.

Now don't get me wrong....this is a very healthy nest egg to build upon for retirement....but If you are wise you will let this nest egg grow untouched until you earn a lot more money in returns. I know I am preaching to the converted here but there are a lot of 20-somes that think they can make a fortune in the Market and I suppose a few do but most don't....so to those just starting out....establish your career, earn your money, learn HOW TO INVEST and build your retirement nest egg. It took me 20 years of study to get to the point where I felt I could abandon working for a living at 54 and retire....never regretted that learning process....Still continuing actually If you are smart the only time you stop learning is when you are dead

Here is a complete reveal of the transactions and status over the last 2 months. I have carved the spreadsheet into pieces for this purpose.







Actually I noticed I did not update the date on the sheet which is Noon MST Apr 23/14

Sorry about the sermon.....just feeling pensive today

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #122 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have 2 gold stocks in this portfolio....B2Gold which is a pretty decent gold mine and Sandstorm Gold which is a financial company which invests in mines that are going into final pre-production, taking a revenues stream from the new mines.

Both stocks rise and fall with the price of gold and that has been frustrating for me. The psychology of gold baffles me at times...it is not exactly the best of times economically and world tensions are high in Europe and the gold price continues to fall. WTF!!!



right now we have seen a test of the support at $1280...all of the diagonal supports I have shown before have tumbled we only have a bearish diagonal resistance left.

I am not that confident that the $1280 support will hold but even if it does that red diagonal support will reach the support by early May and a descending triangle is not the most bullish wedge

As a result I am going to put Limit Stop Losses on BTO.TO and SSL.TO as follows:

B2gold Corp [TSX:BTO] set limit stop-loss for 4000 shares with a limit range from $3.14 - $3.16 per share
Sandstorm Gold [TSX:SSL] set limit stop-loss for 2500 shares with a limit range from $5.75 - $5.77 per share

currently BTO.TO is $3.20 and SSL.to is $5.92 per share so there is a little wiggle room for them to recover...I have some O&G stocks in mind if they do sell.

I am fed up with gold...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #123 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well that did not take long...B2Gold [TSX:BTO] fell by the end of the day.



not too bad....at least we showed some profit for the 2 months we had the stock. If Gold ever takes off....IF!!!... then I will re-buy B2Gold again as I feel it is the best gold mine for the money.



As can be seen there is about $13,000 in available cash, I have an O&G stock in mind but also I like the 6% rise of Silvercorp Mining in the last few days.

I am thinking it would be fine to add another 1000 shares to SVM.TO in addition to the O&G stock....I shall think on this for a while and probably come to a decision tomorrow.

It would not surprise me if Gold took off now....would serve me right. The share price of B2gold fell exactly to where my stop loss limit was set....very tough to gauge the direction of the price of gold and most gold mine stocks depend on that price.

I like the performance of Lundin Mining [TSX:Lun]...I am glad I bought back into this stock....as can be seen from this chart the share price has cleared and closes above a MAJOR resistance which should result in a MAJOR support now



My target price for this stock NOW is something around $6.90 - $7.00...if it reaches that level then a further analysis would be made then to see if further gains are possible.

later

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #124 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,651 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 17,422 given, 8,403 received


Underexposed View Post
I am fed up with gold...

Sadly the prospect of debt-destruction-deflation still remains in the wings until they can either legislate it away or replace it with blood, usual story. Could be a long haul.

Appreciate the posts, cheers.

Travel Well
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ratfink for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #125 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


ratfink View Post
Sadly the prospect of debt-destruction-deflation still remains in the wings until they can either legislate it away or replace it with blood, usual story. Could be a long haul.

Appreciate the posts, cheers.

Thank you for the feedback.

It never fails...you stand by a stock/commodity to the bitter end expecting a turnaround then you set a limit ...draw a line in the sand....the price falls to that limit and triggers a sale then rebounds again. This time it did it to a phantom portfolio {sigh}...though I did take the same decision in my real portfolio too.

B2Gold is up 6 cents to $3.20 at this moment and the price of Gold has risen to $1302....so if you look at that FinViz graphic in my post #122 it is now approaching the diagonal resistance line...it is approaching the apex of that triangle...a big move is lurking there soon.

Edit: Actually I just checked my real holdings on B2Gold...I actually set my limit 5cents lower than this phantom portfolio so I still own the stock...hah! Maybe I should make decisions like this more often It does not really matter here as I have a good O&G stock to go to here...will talk about this shortly

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #126 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,651 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 17,422 given, 8,403 received


Underexposed View Post
Thank you for the feedback.

It never fails...you stand by a stock/commodity to the bitter end expecting a turnaround then you set a limit ...draw a line in the sand....the price falls to that limit and triggers a sale then rebounds again. This time it did it to a phantom portfolio {sigh}...though I did take the same decision in my real portfolio too.

B2Gold is up 6 cents to $3.20 at this moment and the price of Gold has risen to $1302....so if you look at that FinViz graphic in my post #122 it is now approaching the diagonal resistance line...it is approaching the apex of that triangle...a big move is lurking there soon.

You're welcome. I hold and always will hold some physical, but feel like a tosser for not dumping half of it above 1800. Got 600 drop to my original buy price spare left, in which case it definitely stays in the box for the kids. My fear is that the deflation scenario is still ultra-real and we're only around the end of an abc W2, in which case a large drop is still more likely than a large rise. I hope (eugh, tells you what I really think) that I'm dead wrong and we get another Gann cycle breakout, but remain unconvinced either way and still feel the need to hedge with something in addition to cash. Have a good weekend.

Travel Well
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #127 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


ratfink View Post
You're welcome. I hold and always will hold some physical, but feel like a tosser for not dumping half of it above 1800.....

Well I'll join the tosser club with you. I have 2 x 1 oz wafers in a safety deposit box than I bought over 25 years ago for about $300/oz...I sit on them like you...just in case everything falls apart in the financial world.

But I am rethinking this a bit...

If the unmentionable happens what do I do with a one oz wafer worth something like $1500 or more Who Knows how much???

How do I take this one oz wafer to the market to buy groceries etc... Take along a file or hack saw and carve it up to pay for stuff??? Makes no sense to me. Am I going to cash it in for some worthless script or purchase $2000 plus of goods?? See what I mean it is awkward.

I like the Asian idea of buying 24kt gold chain which is 97% pure gold...this makes more and more sense the longer I think about it.

Now if you want to buy something after an apocalyptic financial collapse then you just snip off a few links of the chain at a time...easy peasy. You would be negotiating the weight of the gold links for the price of the goods

It is one thing to save for a potential apocalypse...but one must think about how you would use those gold savings after the event...I do believe in having physical gold though ... in my possession. Purchasing shares in a company like SPDR Gold Trust [NYSE:GLD] and expecting the gold to be there when/if the apocalypse hits is being pretty naive to me.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #128 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I just thought I would post this chart of spot price of gold



going to be exciting next week....now at the resistance level....that triangle apex is getting closer and closer daily. a breakout coming very soon.

$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Pretty neutral right now though the Ichimoku chart shows the spot price rubbing the lower border of the green cloud which suggests that the spot price will fall back to support or worse early next week

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #129 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well I will have to renege on the promised O&G stock.

I have found an interesting consumer goods stock FP Newspapers [TSX:FP]

here is a couple of charts with comments

the Winnipeg Free Press newspaper [TSX:FP] makes a significant amount of revenue from advertising in his newspaper which it offers up monthly in its distribution dividend of a 11% yield

this company has a solid history of dividend, no debts and makes money

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

TA



Shows support at $4.85 and a resistance level first at $5.45 then $5.70



this chart shows a breakout in the offing. The Slow Sto and MACD are already reaching high...the BBwidth is flat in the range to breakout. The share price is nicely positioned above the 20daySMA...the 50 daySMA may prove to be a small challenge but that is acceptable



the ADX is very weakly bullish but the CFM and Onbal volume look fine



this above chart is great....the share price has crawled above the Red Cloud

Conclusion:

I will enter an order for the stock to begin when the market opens....

I will place an order 2000 shares FP @5.12/share valid til May 1/14

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #130 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I got my order filled....FP Newspaper closed at $5.07/share.

I bought this stock for its dividend which is monthly with a yearly 11.65% and is $0.05/share/month

as you can see here this company has not missed a beat with its dividend in at least the last 2 years (actually dividends began Jan/11

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

We got it on the ex-dividend date so can look forward to the dividends starting next month.. This is not a company to make money in the short wing type trading....it is not very volatile.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #131 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Here is a chart on the spot price for Gold.



Wow...such strong resistance and support lines. The price is just days away from the apex of that triangle.

A look at my other charts show mixed messages



this chart shows the price is in a long Bollinger Band tunnel...

What I will do is look at various components of each Sharpchart and try to arrive at a consensus

1) Moving averages

- the 50daySMA cut through the 200daySMA back in mid March...they are running parallel for now though there is the tiniest indication that the 200daySMA is moving toward the 50daySMA but it is not significant... Bullishly neutral

- the 20 daySMA (dotted green line) is bearish as it has fallen through the 50day and 200day SMA's. however it has flattened out and looks as though it wants to rise above the 200 day SMA...Bearishly neutral

2) Slow Sto

- this indicator generally leads a run before it starts. It will plunge first if it is bad news or rise first if things go bullish. Currently it is on the rise...not a strong way but a rise nonetheless.... Mildly Bullish

3) MACD

- this indicator is the next one to show its colors and it is pretty flat with a small positive slope...if this was a higher high it would be full on bullish but it is weakly positive.... Bullishly neutral

4) BBWidth

- this is not a bullish/bearish indicator....this is the trigger and as such the value is extremely low....it is a hair trigger which could be pulled any time now.

Overall Consensus: Very slightly bullish but not decidedly so




5) CMF

- This indicator is quite bullish right now. Since April 14 it has climbed out of the mud and is firmly in the green. You can see that the spot price basically follows the shape of the CFM. One would hope that this trend continues... Bullish

6) RSI

- This indicator is very flat and right now is running right down the middle (50)....Neutral

7) ADX DI+/-

- This indicator is bearish as the red DI- is above the green DI+ and it seems to be diverging


Overall Consensus: Bear cancels Bull so this chart is neutral in sentiment



8) On Balvol and 9) CCI

- both the On Bal vol and the CCi are mildly bearish as they have a negative slope

10) Ichimoku

- the Ichimoku chart to me is bearish as well. See how it has flirted with the lower border of that Green cloud and then it has recently given up trying and fallen back. If you look closely the thin blue line is lower and stronger in slope that the thin red line...Bearish

Overall Consensus: This chart is overwhelmingly Bearish

Final Consensus

the first two charts don't show much more than a neutral sentiment...the last Ichimoku chart though is overwhelmingly bearish

On this basis, it looks like the gold price will fall below the support soon and hopefully be caught somewhere near $1250 as I see support there....failing that $1200 is the next support after that.

Not looking good as I see it.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #132 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well here is the status of this portfolio as of April 30



Well we still have not made money on FP Newspapers but that is not a problem in the long run....this has not been a particularly good week but we are so far about $500 to the black so far this far.

I have extended the Limit Stop-loss on Sandstorm Gold. the situation with the price of gold is more and more tenuous. If you look at the previous post charts you will find the price of gold for the last 2 days is simply inching down that upper resistance line.

I hope there is a positive breakout but am not so sure that will be possible...I am considering a stop loss on Silvercorp Mining as well though will wait a bit there...this is probably silly to wait but it is neg karma to me to do it

My TD Bank stock is progressing well...a slow and steady riser.

I am considering selling Noridon Inc. It SHOULD inch its way to $13/share as the time for that general meeting to vote on the sale of the company approaches (sometime in late May) but I have to weigh the current price which is decent with a potential purchase of one or two other stocks with more potential...still have not made up my mind there.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #133 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

That is the question for the day. It looks like my bearish sentiment from a couple of days ago is being tested. (currently 8:00am MST) the spot price has briefly pierced the $1280 support to $1279.50 but pulled back.

I am going to put a stop-loss on Silvercrest mining at $2.25 with a limit at $2.23



As you can see from my L2 chart the current price is $2.26 with a rising MACD for now but I doubt it will last as while I have been typing this post the price of gold dipped below the $1280 slightly again.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #134 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well that did not last long...SVM.TO is at $2.22/share right now so the stop-loss was tripped and the shares sold.

Well I got money to spend again...I don't think I will look to a mining stock this time again...especially precious metals EXCEPT for Palladium

here is a link to its spot price

Futures Palladium Chart Daily

the only problem is in North America there are only 2 companies that have legitimate Palladium mines..... North American Palladium [TSX:PDL] and Stillwater Mining Company [TSX:SWC.U] Both companies are money losers currently but Stillwater's shares are doing will at $15.52 and climbing (because of the price of Palladium) whereas North American Palladium is a true penny stock at about $0.30 and falling...PDL.TO was at one time worth $9.00/shares but a depressed market and production problems have driven the stock down...it is a decent company with problems...I watch it as if it turns things around it will be an excellent buy....but right now I would not touch it.

You will see by my choices lately I am gravitating to dividend paying stocks. A lot of so-called pundits say dividends are useless....It may be so in the USA but not in Canada. Most dividend stocks if you choose wisely hold their value better in hard times than non-dividend stocks...There are criteria for choosing these good stocks and cautions to look for since if you choose badly just because the dividend payout is high...if the dividend is cut because it is not sustainable...then the stock will plummet...you don't want those stocks....

I will talk about dividends in more detail in another post.

The stupidest thing you can do with dividend paying stocks is buying them just before the ex-dividend date and then selling the stock just after that date so you capture that dividend....dumb...dumb...dumb....dividend stocks are long term investments...in reality I have held a couple of such stocks for 5-10 years and gained both the dividends Plus capital gains....more about this in another post.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #135 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Wow...today may be the day for the breakout/down

look at this early morning 5 min chart



This on the surface looks like the price of gold is going bullish. But is it??



When you look at the daily chart...it has just reached the resistance point.....the financial gods are just coloring the triangle between the lines but we are at the apex now....probably by the end of the day, certainly Monday we will know the future direction...still looking bearish to me though as it has penetrated the support briefly twice....but there is always hope.

Such Drama!!!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #136 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Wow...on the surface it would seem like a breakout occurred on Friday...



But look at the chart....the dotted line is the former resistance and now is irrelevant except as a possible support line. It has been replaced with a new resistance line at around $1300...looking higher I can see a ladder of these small resistances that may or may not be important. The really important one next though after this current one is just below $1350...about 1325 is a minor one.

But currently we have replaced a diminishing triangle with a horizontal channel. ...which I frankly doubt will last much longer.



Compare this chart to the previous similar one and you will find little has changed....instead of the Bollinger Bands diverging they ratcheted a small notch closer (BBwidth falling a little more. The MACD is still flat and the Slow Sto has a very small uptick.

The share price stopped at the 20daySMA...it could not pass it yesterday. Being that the spot price is less than the 20daySMA...which shows to me that this rise was nothing special.



The CFM is more positive and the DI +/- converged a little both of which are a tad more positive but the RSI continues flat.



Little has changed here too...the Ichimoku shows the price further under the cloud despite the pullback. NOTE the thin red/blue lines by the price...they did not respond to the increased price at all.

Conclusion

Still a dicey situation for gold pricing...the bounce in the spot price and breakthrough of the triangle resistance had little effect on the other charts. We are testing that new horizontal resistance...a continued rise as we saw on Friday would probably be indication of a breakout in progress...but I am not seeing it yet. I am still mildly bearish, until I see a decent change in those stocks.


Portfolio Status May 1



Well you can see we had a reasonably successful week with another 2% gain in value raising our 2.5 month portfolio gain to a little over 6%. Silvercorp Mining was sold on the stop-loss order which was a shame as I had high hopes....we did not lose money on the brief time we held that stock as we had a capital gain of about $30 after subtracting commissions....woooohoooo!!! the hamburgers are on me

Well I got money to spend again...I have not made up my mind yet as to how to spend it..

You will note that I have raised the stop loss limit on Sandstorm Gold SSL.TO...I did this to take advantage of the rise in the price of gold...which I still feel is vulnerable to a bearish fall...if it sells at this new level I will even score a small capital gain which is fine when you compare that the the huge loss that I would have had 4 weeks ago....I did not panic and am now about to reap the rewards of that decision.....if the price of gold does break out positively I will follow it by raising the loos limit until I don't fear a fall in Gold price.

This is how I sell a stock...I allows it to rise but when it sells there is no emotion involved in pulling the trigger.



As you can see the dividends are now starting to be significant. BNP and FP will be monthly contributions whereas TD is quarterly. I could use a DRIP to add more shares to each stock but after trying that once for real I have decided that I want the ability to be able to allocate the funds as I see fit so they are added to general revenues.

I will discuss dividends and dividend paying stocks and how to pick them in the future when I have more time.

See you Monday....good trading

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #137 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well, it has taken its time but Nordion has finally moved toward $13.00

NDN.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Actually it has blown past that point and reached $13.54CAD/ share a rise of 6.6%!!!! Perhaps the shareholders are not happy with the $11.75USD/share offer for the company...

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Ahhhh!!! that is the reason .... they sweetened the deal to $12.25USD which at today's exchange rate of $1USD = $1.098 means the new Canadian price would be $13.44....

But we are at $13.54 so there is some pressure that the shareholders want more for this company. As I mentioned earlier I had a feeling things were not the best when they pushed back the vote on this acquisition from late April to late May.

I am going to set a limit stop loss bid for this portfolio's share NDN.TO @ $13.44 - $13.42

If it rises much further I will raise this stop-loss position higher until it does sell. Nice acquisition but I feel it is time to take profits soon.

Gold

Well those bear feelings were wrong...it seems



that resistance I showed last week fell easily....We are now headed for a small resistance at $1325.00...a more substantial resistance is around $1350.

Sandstorm Gold [TSX:SSL]will finally make money for us....I wish I had been able hang onto B2Gold...should I buy it back...or look for another gold mine??? Will make my mine up in the next 24 hours.

Interesting start to the week.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #138 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I wish I had set the stop loss for BTO a little lower but a profit was a profit...as small as it was.

I decided to check gold stocks again to see of I should rebuy B2Gold Corp.

So I did what I usually do in my searches by running a simple screener



this is a simple screener to eliminate the obvious bad boys

the screener returned the following for consideration



I then run a 6 month comparison to see which stock is the best performer over the last 6 months




Well B2Gold ranks up with the best but Oceania Gold is tops ... it has a lot of expectations riding on it from the P/E of over 100.

But I liked this piece of news

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

So NOW I look at the charts for this stock



Wow....look at that resistance at $2.95....this is worth a risk to me....breaking this resistance would be huge and Gold looks to be on the recovery.



OK perhaps you are now familiar with this chart and can recognize the bullish trigger....the Slow Sto moved positive first ....followed by the MACD and now the BBwidth has a positive slope....at the worst we will test that $2.95 resistance

Final chart today is the Ichomoku...let's look at it



That seals the deal...the share price has strongly risen above the clouds and the CCI and On Bal volume are also bullish...in the Ichmoku chart look at the thin blue/red lines near the price....see the rise and separation of the blue line....very nice.

I will set a limit bid for 1500 shares of OceanaGold Corp [TSX:OGC] for $2.85/share which is the current asking price at the time of writing

When NDN.TO sells I will have more money and will probably add to this holding.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #139 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I am pulling the trigger on Nordion[TSX: NDN] with a market order which yielded 13.48/share which is the last price at the bell.

I am going to take that money and buy 2000 shares Kelso Technologies Inc [TSXV:KLS] at $6.70/share

Kelso is the company that makes refits to oil tanker railway cars to make them safer and is virtually the sole company doing this

U.S., Canada tightening oil tanker rules - Spokesman.com - April 26, 2014

This news HAS to spur this company's growth.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #140 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received


Underexposed View Post
I am pulling the trigger on Nordion[TSX: NDN] with a market order which yielded 13.48/share which is the last price at the bell.

A great trade!! I would have been out on the day the deal was announced. Just part of my trading plan that I bail on the first offer. I wouldn't have made the return you did but I've been burned enough times when the deals fell through that I incorporated that rule into my plan.

A very interesting, well written and educational journal. I thank you for the time and effort you are putting into it. Thanks for sharing your methodology and thought process for choosing stocks and managing your portfolio.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to deaddog for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #141 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...I made a number of changes so here is the status of the portfolio

NOTE: on the post of the state of the portfolio last Friday I had mistake in the spreadsheet for the overall % gain ...it should have been over 8% not over 6%....nice to make a mistake in that direction



The reason for jumping on Kelso Industries as I did was a TV news report as I was working on my post.

Apparently the president of Burlington Northern in the USA said that the Canadian rules for tightening of oil tanker railcar improvement/replacement should be followed in the USA as well. Apparently the Canadian rules are to replace outdated rail-tankers in 3 years....whereas in the USA the rules are to replace them in 7 years.

I does not make sense to have two sets of regulations and Burlington Northern is in favour of adopting the Canadian schedule. As this railway is the largest mover of oil by rail in the USA this will be a great shot in the arm for Kelso.

Since we sold the shares back in early April (for a nice profit the share price has risen another $1.50 or so...I set that Stop-loss too tight I guess...

I still have over $7000 to spend...it may be put onto another 1000shares of Kelso....we shall see.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #142 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
A very interesting, well written and educational journal. I thank you for the time and effort you are putting into it. Thanks for sharing your methodology and thought process for choosing stocks and managing your portfolio.

I thank you for the kind comment...It seems I have a different approach to trading...especially on this site. Hopefully I am showing that long term trading can be as successful as short term swings....it certainly is a lot less stressful when done properly.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #143 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Gold has take another plunge this morning...not far ...down to about $1296....I am tired of these fluctuations. They are amplified on the gold stocks and as a result my stop-loss on Sandstorm Gold [TSX:SLL] tripped and I sold the 2500 shares for $6.25 resulting in a loss of $644.98 which was much better than a month ago when the loss would have been a couple of $K...so I gained back some ...but now I am frustrated with Gold...I still have OceanaGold Corp so there is a finger in gold but but not a fist.

Kelso Industries that I bought yesterday has gained 4% since that buy....so I am going to add another 1000 shares to this stock. Replacing those rail cars over the next X-years will be a huge shot in the arm for this company.

I have about $23K to play with since the sale of SSL shares.

I am going to buy another O&G stock that I have been fond of for a while in my real portfolio.

Pengrowth Energy Corp. [TSX:PGF]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

this is another monthly dividend stock with a yield of 6.575%





These are both bullish charts for me

So today's orders are

it is 10:10 MST currently

Kelso Technologies Inc [TSXV:KLS] Buy 1000 shares @ $6.95/share
Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:PGF] Buy 2000 shares @ $7.35/share

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #144 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well it was quite an active day....here is the mid-week status of the portfolio



Well unless things pick up it will not be a huge week like the past two but we are at least on the right side of the daisies

Note the reduced emphasis on gold stocks....gone are B2Gold [TSX:BTO] and Sandstorm Gold [TSX:SSL] gold is boring me now...it is showing no real lasting trend and those stocks whipsaw with every fluctuation in gold pricing. It has not disappeared entirely...I added OceanaGold Corp [TXS:OCG]...it is a cheaper stock and not as volatile in comparisons with the price of gold. So I still have a finger there and will follow the spot price of gold AND if there is a real Bullish trend...I will move to reinstate these companies into the portfolio again.

I have added a new stock Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:PGF] This stock is well known to me...I have had this stock in my real portfolio for a couple of years now. I enjoy the regular dividend as well as the capital growth...double bubble. I expect this trend to continue.

I have also re-added Kelso Technologies [KLS.V] it was sad that the dip stopped out my previous holding though it was my first real profit of note. I added 2000 shares and then an additional 1000 shares with a 3% gain in 2 days. I think it is the right industry (making oil rail tankers safer) at the right time....an excellent long term hold.

I have spent most of the money resulting from the sale of Nordion [TSX:NDN] shares...I am happy with the selection...Bellatrix Exploration is the strong stock it looked when I bought a few weeks ago.

Writing this journal has changed my approach a bit...I used to wait for 50-100% profit before selling and often this resulted in a loss of 10-20% gains...now I am not so reticent about taking smaller gains...this is a good exercise.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #145 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well we lost about 1% of value in this portfolio on Thursday with the biggest losses in the Oil and Gas industry sector.




If you look at the previous post we were working on a nice gain of 0.24% as of Wednesday afternoon and at 10:00am MST yesterday we were well over 1% to the good for the week but that died. I still don't understand what happened...profit taking? Maybe in some cases but every stock saw some loss....I did see news that Canada as a whole had a net job loss which was responsible for wiping out a 6/10 of a cent of the $CAD versus $US...that might have been the trigger.

You can see how severe the drop was by looking at this chart for BXE.TO



Damn near linear loss.

What to do? Sell everything and go to cash??? If it were one stock then there would be some event that caused the drop....bad financial report, production losses due to accident, loss of market share overnight....something like that...but this is a global thing.

The company's stock was just hit by a drive-by shooting...nothing else has changed. This would be a buying opportunity if I had more cash but with less than $2000 I don't really have enough cash to take advantage of this...I might buy 100-200 shares of something but that would have little impact on this portfolio.

No, when such events happen out of the blue...I simply sit back and wait to see what happens today....should be a pullback as bargain hunters move in.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #146 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well to say I am surprised is an understatement. Thursday morning I was up over 1% for the week and a day and a half later we are down 2% for the week...quite a sudden drop!!!



I am not unhappy about the portfolio at this point. This drop is not company specific as I see it...rather it is a general response to indices both in Canada and the USA...we had bad job numbers nationally but that will be forgotten quickly IMHO



I thought I would see what happened to the TSX Composite index.

As you can see from the P&F chart above this so far is nothing more than a pullback approaching a support at 14500. It this support fails then there are a number of minor reports until it reaches 14400 which at this point I doubt will break...actually I think 14400 to fail.



This chart just shows the end of a bullish run and an entry into consolidation...As typically happens at the end of a run the values tend to return to the 20daySMA. Note today's doji for the last candle...indicates indecision to me and implies the plunge may be over....there is nothing scary in this chart



Similarly there is nothing outrageous in the last chart either....the CFM remains bullish, the RSI is mildly bearish while the ADX is fairly neutral considering the fall.



the Ichimoku cart is fine...well above the clouds, Note the thin blue/red lines....though the index fell over the last 4 days the Blue line continues to diverge from the red line...this is NOT bearish...the On Bal Volume is mildly bullish while the CCI is mildly bearish

Conclusion

I would be pretty naive if I said that 100% this is the end of the fall/correction...it could get worse, for sure...but so far it does not look serious enough to sell all and go to cash.

But let us look at USA indices...as they say "when the USA sneezes, Canada catches a cold". Our Canadian economy, like it or not is joined at the hip with the USA in most ways...though it is not like the USA cares much about that {sigh}





there is an interesting difference here...I chose the SPX index instead of the DJAI because generally the two indices track each other.

Looking at the SPX things don't look too bad...both the Slo Sto and MACD are quite neutral at present and the BBwidth is shoing signs of going lower indicating a tightening of the BB's so a movement in the next 2-3 weeks is implied though it cannot be guessed at its direction.

The Nasdaq is of course a Hi-Tech index while the SPX is more business oriented....things have not gone well for Nasdaq the last few weeks but not that the BBwidth is going lower...while the Slow Sto and MACD are going sideways with a slight neg drift. There is a major move coming in that index too....it is not auspiciously placed right now being less than its 20daySMA...but I see lots of time for that being bettered.

Things don't look desperate in the USA...so I would say that the economy of the USA will not negatively affect Canada for now.

USA is a Hi-Tech and Business oriented economy whereas the TSX in Canada is more commodity based...we always seem to be waiting on other parts of the world to get there act together so we can sell our commodities. At this time as far as Canada is concerned I think this correction will be over soon.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #147 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

As I surmised, the drop in pricing on last Thursday/friday has corrected itself with probably bargain hunters flooding back in...here is the status of this portfolio as of early morning trading today



As you can see we have almost made up the losses from the end of last week....let us hope this continues. My days of panicking at every drop in price across the board died a long time ago...If the drop had of price had continued a third day then I would have pulled in my bigger sellers snd sit tight for a while but the index analysis did not show a imminent collapse to me so we just ride it out.

Gold is making a small comeback.



Such a tease....you see another triangle forming and that I ignored the peak on early March....that peak has no bearing anymore on the diagonal resistance anymore IMHO....it will be significant if the price rises to the peak height but that is all....the dotted red line is where I see secondary resistance.

Looking at my cash-on-hand you will see that I have about $1900 available. I will place a limit bid for OceanaGold Corp [TSX:OGC] for 500 shares @ $2.85 to bring the total holdings of this stock to 2000 shares. I wish I had been on the mark earlier as I could have gotten this stock cheaper but getting this lot for the same price as the initial holding is fine.

I would only re-invest in Sandstorm Gold and B2Gold if the price rose to break that dotted red line resistance...Gold is such a fickle tramp I don't trust it too much right now.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #148 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well nothing new on Gold....at $1297 it is just painting the inside of that triangle I showed in the above graphic for gold.

We had a great day yesterday in the portfolio...the one day gain of 2.50 % wiped out last week's loss and then some.



Now it remains to be seen whether we can keep or better yet add to the gains.

The boat anchor in this portfolio is FPnewspapers Inc [TSX:FP]



I do like this stock. It is a newspaper out of Winnipeg Manitoba...Manitoba is sort of isolated in Canada and this newspaper dominates here. The attraction is the dividend that is generated by the advertising revenue it receives which is over 12% annually or $0.05/share monthly this has been a very consistent dividend paid reliably for years.

As can be seen in the above chart, the stock has fallen to a support level band from $4.75 - $4.80...this support appears to be quite strong...the secondary support is at $4.50



This chart shows the dramatic fall today but it is curious that the BBWidth indicator hardly acknowledges the drop. The share price is far below the lower Bollinger band so I would expect a pullback soon to bring the price back into the BB envelope. You can see that such plunges have happened before and the response was to rise afterward.

Not worried about the drop and may use it to buy more shares later...though I have no spare cash to buy more shares....I NEVER use margin dollars...I like to sleep at night

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #149 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well that support that was ooohhhh so solid fell apart like a deck of cards and was caught by the second support I mentioned $4.50 actually it is a band I suppose from $4.45 - $4.50.



Ok...that muted response of the BBwidth is now strong...but if I thought the share price of the stock was under the lower BB before...it is insanely lower now. To Sell now would be to panic and take a huge loss. My days of panic in trading went away after the 2008-2009 crash. You lose real money by panicking.

Why has this fall from grace happened....that is the question....NOT the world is falling SELL...SELL!!

Technical analysis cannot help you there. Fundamental analysis will investigate the damage...that is why, those that say one should follow TA or FA and never the twain should meet, are totally wrong.

So let's look at those fundamentals.

Balance Sheet

Annually

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Quarterly

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

this company has NO DEBT LOAD...none...the cash is pretty consistent every quarter


Income Statement

Annually

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Quarterly

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

you will note that the Operating Revenue is consistent every second quarter...up/down/up/down there is a seasonality to the revenue...It is a newspaper one would expect the advertising revenue in the quarter leading to Christmas would be far greater than the following quarter.

Well here is the most recent quarter

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

well true to form the quarter following Christmas was low...it was half of that of the same quarter in 2013 so of course there is panic in the streets.

this is a company that has seasonality to its revenues, I fully believe this next quarter will be better than this last one. In retrospect, if I had thought about it I should have waited for this quarterly announcement before buying the stock...but having made that mistake I will not compound the error by selling now and taking a real loss.

they announced their dividend is unchanged...if they did something like 1/2 their dividend then there would be something seriously wrong and I would bail in a heartbeat...but that constant dividend is untouched.

To sell now is a panic reaction and converting a paper loss to a real one. Looking at the chart, this stock has suffered previous falls like this and recovered...this is an extreme over reaction IMHO...if I had cash I would probably take advantage of this but I don't and my other stocks are doing well....so I will just watch for now.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #150 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received


Underexposed View Post

this is a company that has seasonality to its revenues, I fully believe this next quarter will be better than this last one. In retrospect, if I had thought about it I should have waited for this quarterly announcement before buying the stock...but having made that mistake I will not compound the error by selling now and taking a real loss.

they announced their dividend is unchanged...if they did something like 1/2 their dividend then there would be something seriously wrong and I would bail in a heartbeat...but that constant dividend is untouched.

To sell now is a panic reaction and converting a paper loss to a real one. Looking at the chart, this stock has suffered previous falls like this and recovered...this is an extreme over reaction IMHO...if I had cash I would probably take advantage of this but I don't and my other stocks are doing well....so I will just watch for now.

I agree that you shouldnít panic on a sell off. Do you have an exit strategy in place for FP if it keeps falling?

Fundamentally itís a newspaper. Advertisers are spending their money on social media. I donít see much of a growth opportunity.

Normally a dividend yield of 13% is a red flag. They havenít cut this month but Iím guessing itís a matter of time. Their history shows cuts in 2011 and 2012.

If they do announce a dividend cut then there will be another panic sell off. When do you take your loss.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #151 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
I agree that you shouldnít panic on a sell off. Do you have an exit strategy in place for FP if it keeps falling?

Fundamentally itís a newspaper. Advertisers are spending their money on social media. I donít see much of a growth opportunity.

Normally a dividend yield of 13% is a red flag. They havenít cut this month but Iím guessing itís a matter of time. Their history shows cuts in 2011 and 2012.

If they do announce a dividend cut then there will be another panic sell off. When do you take your loss.

that dividend has been paid for years...

Dividend Summary - FP Newspapers Inc.

In 2009 it has paid a dividend of $0.06/share...then since 2010 to the present it has regularly...every month paid $0.05/share which right now is a 12% annual yield.

If this were a company that was inconsistent in its dividend payment or suddenly raised its dividend to that level, I would agree with the red flag scenario.

But this is not the case....you purchase this stock for its dividend which in Canada is taxed at roughly 1/2 that of normal interest income and there is no other simple , non-dividend investment that can touch that return.

Do I have an exit plan for this stock.....no...if anything I would probably increase my holding for the dividends

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

As you can see here the stock has its ups and downs...but the dividend over those years was consistent and religiously paid.

This stock is purchased for that dividend...not growth. I intend to show that dividends are worthwhile collecting.

To sell now would not be advisable in this case as

1. I would forgo those dividends.
2. I would incur a real loss rather than a paper loss.

I do not expect the Winnipeg Free Press to disappear...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #152 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received


Underexposed View Post
that dividend has been paid for years...

Dividend Summary - FP Newspapers Inc.

In 2009 it has paid a dividend of $0.06/share...then since 2010 to the present it has regularly...every month paid $0.05/share which right now is a 12% annual yield.

In 2009 the distribution was 9.5 cents per month.
In 2010 they paid a special distribution in stock of 30 some odd cents then did a share consolidation so that every one had the same number of shares.

Here are a couple comments that scare me from the quarterly report.


Quoting 
FPI declared dividends of $0.600 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 95.1%.


Quoting 
In response to the declining advertising revenue FPLP has experienced over the recent quarters, we are completing a review of our operating costs at all our business units and have and will continue to implement cost reduction actions wherever this makes business sense.

Somebody is dumping

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #153 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
In 2009 the distribution was 9.5 cents per month.
In 2010 they paid a special distribution in stock of 30 some odd cents then did a share consolidation so that every one had the same number of shares.

You cannot base judgements today on happenings over three years ago that is prehistoric history. Look at the dividend payouts for the years from 2010 to the present....very consistent...monthly payouts of $0.05 on share prices worth between $4 - $6/share.

to me there are no red flags ....that quarterly report was based on advertising revenue following Christmas....this is a typically low advertising period. It is My opinion that this is a huge over reaction. The company has no debt, It is not going to disappear, it is the dominant newspaper in the region that it services....it will bounce back.

My only regret in this play was not waiting for the March financials before purchasing this stock.....THAT WAS MY MISTAKE...but I am not going to compound that mistake by taking a huge REAL loss when I am confident of a rebound.



this stock is ridiculously low IMHO...it is $0.30 below its lower Bollie....to sell now would be to sell a day or so before recovery and if that happened you would kick yourself around the block for panicking.

I am going to purchase more of this stock at the right moment and that moment has not arrived.

Look at the above chart during the previous fall on May 15...see the formation of the indicators below the main chart....there is a MACD/BBwidth squeeze there...about the same time as that squeeze happens you note that the Slow Sto starts to recover its value.

The time to buy this stock will be when BOTH the MACD and BBwidth reverse direction to form that squeeze look.....that will be the end of the down turn...I will be buying for capital gain as well as dividends.

Here is the status of my portfolio here as of 10:30am MST



Despite the fall of this stock....I am still on the plus side for gains for the week....I am currently wondering what I will sell in order to have cash to buy more FP and I am thinking BXE.TO at the moment though that may change...the decision won't happen for at least 2-3 days.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #154 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well, let us look at gold again as it has been a week or so since I last did a full comment.



Not much has changed...we seem to go from one triangle of resistance/support to another. I find it fascinating that this process is as slow as it has been. Notice the constant lower highs since mid-March as well as the consistent higher lows for the same period. This to me reflects the indecision as to where the price will ultimately go. That support line has been really tested 3 times (the shadows below the support) but each day this attack is thwarted. A breakout/down could happen at any time now but cetainly something major should happen before the end of May.



the price IS looking a tad bullish at this point. In that blue circle see Slow Sto has been slowly climbing, as well the MACD also has higher highs (muted though they be) and the BBwidth has taken a significant jog downward...to a point not seen for 6 months.

the BBWidth indicator is the trigger and it is a hair trigger now. The fact that the Slow Sto and MACD are rising gives us the direction.



Early morning today saw the price fall suddenly to about $1290 which is the near bottom of the lower Bollinger Band but it quickly popped up $1297 which is pretty much where the 20day SMA is located...so another attacked directed toward the Support line was denied.



this is my "sentiment chart" Look at the area circled in the ADX chart at the bottom. I call this cross and recross of the DI+/- lines "chaining" and this shows indecision...currently it is looking a bit on the bullish side as it is green line up.

the RSI is very neutral though right now it looks to rise over 50. The CMF in the main chart is trending bullish.

So this chart gives hope for a bullish move though it is only a very mild indication



the Ichimoku chart here is slightly bearish...the CCI is mildly bullish, while the On Bal Volume is bearish. In the Ichimoku the price of Gold has been bearish for a while as it is below the clouds. However the clouds have a small window of the next week or so where they are very thin. So a push in the price of gold may result in it rising easing above the clouds....if this does not happen though then that thick red cloud on the horizon will make things difficult for a long while afterward. Mixed messages here.

Conclusion

The results of this look are mixed but I would say it looks a tad bullish now .... but this tart has teased us before and change her mind very fast.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #155 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well this seems like a bit of a Simon Says game...one step forward 2 steps back.

Here is the status to date for this portfolio



Two days of bad losses but overall we are still in the black overall. If this were a loss due to one stock I would be worried about that stock and would probably have bailed on it. However this seems to be a general malaise, most stocks had losses based on profit taking and general sentiment...not the least being the sentiment there should be a correction in the USA markets.

We have collected some dividends this week to compensate some to the losses



As you can see, this is starting to accumulate and next month dividends from FP.TO will be added. The money is added to CASH to be reinvested.

And what has happened to FP.TO



Well it has stated its recovery and is now back into the Bollinger Band envelope as I predicted. Look at the indicators....see how the MACD and BBwidth are hinting at a reversal of their respective trends....thus forming this MACD/BBWidth "pinch"....it is not there yet and until it is the stock price can fall again (this rise could only be a rest).

But I don't think it is a rest as the Slow Sto is rising nicely as well.

Will it rise back just as fast as it fell...could happen but I doubt that very much. The first step of the recovery is to return to the 20daySMA (dotted green line)....this could take 2-5 days...from there it will wander above/below this average until the Bollinger Bands tighten....from that point it could breakupward or down...right now that is not apparent...but as I said earlier, that rapid fall was an over-reaction to the financial report + the double whammy of the view of the economy by many.

Hopefully things settle down next week.

Oh yeah....gold....that tart is just a tease...the price getting tighter and tighter between resistance and support.
Well most like it tight but then it can be a mess when the sentiment explodes :P That may happen in the next week...Something has to happen there soon



It is a long weekend in Canada this week....see you in the next couple of days

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #156 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well I am back from the long weekend holiday...no snow for a couple of weeks now finally!! Weather is weird everywhere I suppose I should not complain about a little snow off and on...{sigh}

I was looking for some change in Gold but the ratchets just get tighter with no breakout...up or down....this cannot go on forever.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC

We are almost at the apex of that triangle now...amazing

The price tested that resistance line today but failed to cross it. There is some mild positives in the indicators below but they are far from being definitive...the best line through the Slow Sto is still positive for the last month but the last peak was lower than the previous on...however the it has not fallen below the last low in that chart. The MACD has a slight positive slope for the same time period AND (you need a magnifying glass ) the last high is a higher high.



As shown above...the CCI and On Bal Vol cancel eachother out. but looking closely at the thin red/blue lines they are converging...not diverging...you want the blue line above the red. the commodity's price has about 8 days to rise otherwise it will be stalled under that red cloud.

Conclusion

Still too close to call but I still think the bullish side wins over the bear by the smallest of margins...when I look at that first chart showing the triangle...I would say it would not be unreasonable for this situation to resolve itself within the next 1- 5 days...Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

So far I have looked at nothing but TA for a judgement. It is hard to find unbiased news on gold...but I will see if I can find some and see what they predict.

Nothing much has changed in this chart...the CMF is still green side up, the RSI is dead-assed neutral but there is a glimmer of positive in the ADX DI +/-....see in the circle...the green DI+ is diverging from the red DI-...it isn't rocketing away but it is not converging....this is more and more looking like a bullish signal...not indecision.


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #157 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...Gold spot prices get tighter and tighter. The maximum price a buyer will pay (resistance price) is getting very close to the minimum price a seller will accept (support price). This cannot go one forever....sooner or later one or the other has to blink.

So...I think I have a pretty good handle on the TA for the spot price of Gold. To me it is clear that something will significantly happen this week...earlier I predicted 1-5 days which would take us to next Monday...a window of 5 business business days.

I thought I'd look at some news and see if there was any insight there

The best place to start in my opinion is on Kitco.com...most of the news is free of hype. Here is the URL

Kitco Precious Metals News Headlines - Gold News, Silver News, Platinum News

it is here you should find decent news to choose from..and that is where I went. The most unenlightening in that list is MarketWatch...the reason I say so is that most of their analysis is 20/20 hindsight. I do go there occasionally if something major has happened...they will analyze that to death IMHO. Here is their discussion on gold prices

Demand data fail to give gold much of a boost - Metals Stocks - MarketWatch

here are a couple of quotes:


Quoting 
A break below $1,283 is possible, and this could see gold quickly fall to test longer term support at $1,200, he said. adding thatís likely to happen if the technical traders continue to dominate. ďHowever, should physical demand pick up on rising geopolitical tensions and Indian demand return with the easing of [import] duties, gold could quickly challenge resistanceĒ at $1,385 and $1,418, he said.

Tell me something I haven't already figured out...Technical traders looking for a break in the support???? Not this trader. {sniff}


Quoting 
Traders looked to the weekís speeches from various Fed officials. On Monday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said it will likely be more than a year before the central bank begins raising interest rates. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher also appeared with Williams, while former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke at a separate event.

ďWilliams did caution about the diminishing improvement in housing, and suggested that the continued tapering and subsequent rate hikes ahead should not be expected to offer an environment of totally smooth sailing,Ē said Erik Gebhard, co-founder of Altavest Worldwide Trading.

This has little to do with the current price of gold and is more about filler for the article. There is some talk about diminished demand...well yes...that is why the price has fallen so much....but it offers nothing about the mexican standoff happening now.


the next news source is BullionVault

Gold Bar & Coin Demand Hits 4-Year Low | Gold News

this is a little better. It at least discusses the #1 and #2 buyer of gold bullion...China and India. The world does not revolve around US interest rates IMHO for everything.


Quoting 
Bar and coin demand in No.1 gold buyer China and No.2 India Ė where import restrictions to try and boost the Rupee's value have forced inflows to the less visible "grey market" Ė more than halved in Q1 2014, dropping 54% and 55% by weight respectively and falling well over 60% by value from Q1 2013.

India's year-on-year drop in legal gold imports then worsened in April, notes the latest Precious Metals Update from gold bar refining giant Heraeus, dropping 74% from 2013's record levels, sparked last spring by the 2013 crash in world gold prices and finally leading the Congress-led government Ė defeated by a landslide in this month's national elections Ė to impose a de facto gold import ban from July.

ok...there are good reasons why the price of gold has dropped...nothing to do with US interest rates....the major players in the game decided to reduce imports...that makes sense to me.


Quoting 
Flows of gold from Western vaults to satisfy the demand of eastern consumers," says the World Gold Council, "have slowed as global gold markets have gradually returned to a more 'normal' state of affairs" Ė evidenced by the drop in Asian gold premiums over and above London's prevailing large-bar price, taken as the benchmark by bullion dealers worldwide"]"Flows of gold from Western vaults to satisfy the demand of eastern consumers," says the World Gold Council, "have slowed as global gold markets have gradually returned to a more 'normal' state of affairs" Ė evidenced by the drop in Asian gold premiums over and above London's prevailing large-bar price, taken as the benchmark by bullion dealers worldwide.

hmmmm....this reinforces my dislike of gold ETF's that claim to be backed by gold in their vaults.

this is a website that offers comment and data on where gold is going.

Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report

this is a comment that would scare me a bit..


Quoting 
The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

..................

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

No this may be a little alarmist...but still...to me if I wanted Gold I would stick to bullion or coin....though if I really thought the financial apocalypse was coming I would be like Asians and buy 24kt gold chain....WHY? what are you going to do with a single 1 oz gold coin or wafer worth say $1000 - $3000 when you want to buy groceries or services? Get out your file and rasp off a bit??.... 24kt gold chain is 97% gold and you take out a link or two and go shopping....makes sense to me.

Here is a chart showing the depletion of gold by companies that are supposed to back their investors with gold bullion



it seems to agree with what the previous blogger, Harvey Organ, was talking about though it is COMEX not GLD or SLV. Paper gold is not worth the paper it is written on...you are fooling yourself IMHO.

Lastly is an article written by Kitco itself

May 20 Afternoon Gold Report With Jim Wyckoff

another good source of good info.


Quoting 
It was a very light day for U.S. economic data Tuesday. Traders are awaiting Wednesday afternoonís release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That report is arguably the most important world data point of the week.

I will add another quote from Harvey Organ....lots of stuff to plow through in his blog...is it gospel? I am not sure but he seems to back up his assertions with data.


Quoting 
Tomorrow, Putin visits China set to sign the huge "holy grail" deal. This will be the start of the huge waterfall in the uSA dollar.

Conclusion

Well we read the reason for the decline in gold price (reduced demand of China and India) and it appears that tomorrow, Wednesday, is an important event be it the Fed Reserve announcement or Putin inking a deal with China

It falls in line with what I am seeing in the charts.....like I said....this triangle cannot narrow to the apex forever....someone will have to blink.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #158 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well, the bleeding has stopped and some of the losses were reclaimed. Here is the status as of today.



FP.TO is still the big loser...but there has been a recovery there



The share price is within the Bollinger Band envelope, however, is this a bottom recovery or is it just a rest before falling again in a serious way.

the first clue that this might not be over is the fact that the MACD/BBWidth "pinch" is not complete. Also the share price seems reluctant to aim at the 20 daySMA...this looks very much like the pattern that happened on mid-March. However the Slow Sto looks promising so PATIENCE is required there will not be a rapid recovery with this stock...But then I bought it for the dividends long term

Gold??? well it is getting tighter again between resistance and support....if that is possible



nothing much to do but sit tight for now

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #159 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I cannot stand it!!! Never have I seen such a triangle filled to the apex before



Look at it....the range narrows and narrows



{sigh} I keep hitting the submit instead of preview button....too excited I guess

Note in the above chart the widening distance between the DI+/- lines...getting more bullish

I cannot embed the Ichimoku chart but open the thumbnail and look at the thin red/blue lines...the red has arched down to the red

Conclusion for me is that Gold will break out tomorrow...it will break the resistance line....how high it will go is a mystery but it cannot go on this way much longer....Monday at the latest but I think it will be Friday.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	goldichi.png
Views:	25
Size:	37.1 KB
ID:	147522  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #160 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,651 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 17,422 given, 8,403 received


Underexposed View Post
Look at it....the range narrows and narrows

Sadly that's all we can say. It's certainly a coil and from here it should be interesting to see if the indexes also go with it or go opposite, in either direction.

I'm thinking:

a) Both up, printers have found yet another tricksy way to debase or hide debt, rather than destroy it. Sideline smart money needs to keep acquiring gold and actual companies to preserve real wealth. Life goes on, but most are poorer. No change there.

b) Gold up, indexes down, fear of systemic issues finally reappearing, including major conflicts, end of current financial system, less law and order. Maybe the magicians are out of tricks.

c) Gold down, indexes up, party continues, all is well in the world, for a year or two more.

d) Both down, debt destruction takes hold, the rest of the world can no longer hide from China's mountains as well as keeping USA and Europe under the rug.

e) All options will continue to rotate and need hedging against or taking advantage of.

F) That because of floating currencies it's actually impossible to make sense of the options or predict anyway, and we will continue to have all four just playing tag until the bond market finally says ENOUGH.

g) That it's Friday and yet another bank holiday so have a great weekend.

Travel Well
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #161 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Yes, it is unpredictable lately. But that does not stop me from trying.

I think I have the timing right for the breakout but the direction is in question.

currently at 6:48am MST these are the charts for Silver and Gold

Gold:



Silver



it seems that right now the support lines for both metals are being tested.... could I have the timing right but direction wrong...could be as my mildly bullish sentiment is based on the smallest of evidence. But this is fascinating to watch.

We shall see soon.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #162 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well gold did nothing...another head fake....I still think the move has to be made soon...nothing more to say...this thing is ripe to burst anytime



As can be seen, we have recovered about 1/2 our last week's losses. FPnewspaper [TSX:FP] continues to be the boat anchor ... it may be not over....why? because the share price should be headed back to the 20daysma



As well the MACD/BBWidth "pinch" has not been completed....as well the Slow Sto has sloped negative now...this is not bullish it is the opposite.

So why don't I sell??? Well I think we are near the bottom...just a gut feel based on previous patterns back in Mid March. As well I did not buy this stock for a flip....I want it long term for the reliable dividend and potential capital gain eventually...when the end of this bear is shown I will add more to this position and increase my dividend return.



On the positive side The Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD] has begun a nice bounce gaining about $1.50 in the past 2 days. This is just the beginning of the run and it will be interesting to see how high it goes...I have no desire to sell either of these stocks at this point

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #163 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received

Iím looking at some mortgage lenders for dividend income.

MPK; FN; and FC;

I have some cash sitting around in a HISA earning a whopping 1.3%; I can tie it up for 5 years and get 2.5% or so. So Iím looking for a better place to sock it away.

My thinking is these companies have a pretty good record of maintaining their distributions.

If you have the time Iíd appreciate your thoughts on these companies.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #164 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
I’m looking at some mortgage lenders for dividend income.

MPK; FN; and FC;

I have some cash sitting around in a HISA earning a whopping 1.3%; I can tie it up for 5 years and get 2.5% or so. So I’m looking for a better place to sock it away.

My thinking is these companies have a pretty good record of maintaining their distributions.

If you have the time I’d appreciate your thoughts on these companies.

I think you mean MKP not MPK

All of these stocks have performed decently with respect to delivering on their dividend obligations in the past.

One of my tests that I use on dividend stocks...especially financial dividend payers is how well they did during the crisis of 2008-2009.

MCAN Mortgage Corporation (MKP:TSX) Quarterly dividend, current yield:7.99%

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

this stock had a quarterly dividend of $0.23/share at its height in 2008 but it dropped to $0.11/quarter at the low point of 2009....it regained that $0.23 dividend quickly (the next quarter) and has risen to $0.28/quarter where it is today.

First National Financial Corporation (FN:TSX) Monthly dividend, current yield:6.54%

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

this stock had a Monthly dividend of $0.104/share at its height in 2008 and it rose to $0.1125/month at the low point of 2009....it kept rising to $0.125 monthly dividend where it is today.

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation (FC:TSX) Monthly dividend, current yield: 7.66%

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

this stock amazingly has had the same monthly dividend for the last 10 years of $0.078/share.

Conclusion: Based on past history all stocks performed decently during crisis and recovered their stock price quickly when the crisis was over....however, MCAN Mortgage Corporation (MKP:TSX) did lose its dividend for a short period of time and that loss of dividend can cause a severe loss of share price. So I am slightly biased against MKP for that reason

Share price recovery

MKP has recovered well and in share price it rose steadily from the low of $8.00/share to a high of $16.00 by 2011 and stands at $14.00 today

FN has recovered even better and in share price it rose steadily from the low of $8.00/share to $22.00 by 2010 (one year) and stands at $22.00 today

FC has recovered slowly in share price it rose steadily from the low of $8.00/share to $14.00 by 2011 and stands at $12.00 today.

Conclusion:

FN beats out MKP and FC as far as share performance...with MKP the rise was rapid for the first year and then went sideways for the next 9 years. Personally though I like the performance of FC a little better....its rise was slow and steady for 9 of the 10 years after regaining its pre-crisis share price within a year.

From a debt perspective

MKP - on an annual basis it has had debt rise from $5 million to almost $2 billion over the last 5 years
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FC - on an annual basis the debt has crept up from $33 million to $150 million over the last 5 years
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FN - carries the most debt with no debt 5 years ago and now having $18 billion today
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

From an income perspective

MKP - the net revenue is stable at between $21 - 30 million annually
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FC - the net revenue has been stable for the last 5 years at about $14 - 17 million annually
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FN - well bigger debt but its income has risen dramatically too from $21 - $163 Million annually

Conclusion

well the higher share price of FN certainly is a result of its increase in revenues. I don't like the MKP ballooning of debt particularly...I like more control. FC has the lowest debt but lower income as well.

From a charting perspective

I like to compare the performance of the three stocks in one chart.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=CA%3afc&uf=0&type=64&size=4&sid=6124184&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=6&rand=985320762&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=ca%3amkp%2cca%3afn%2c&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=635&width=1045&mocktick=1

Clearly the big loser here is First National Financial Corporation (FN:TSX).

If I were to put money into one of these stocks, I think it would be in Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation (FC:TSX). The dividend has bee ROCK steady for the past 10 years...crisis or not. In addition the share price has a steady rise over those last 9 years or so...very little fluctuation...though slow.

So if I wanted to salt away an amount of money FC has the highest rate of return on its dividend as well as improving in share value....I would expect a decent capital gain as well as a nice dividend monthly gain for the next 5 years.

that is my view on the matter...I hope it helps you.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #165 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Last week I predicted the price of Gold would show its colors by Monday. I FORGOT that Monday was a holiday in the USA (Memorial Day) and there was no trading in that country on that day.

But now trading has begun again and this 5 min chart shows a severe drop in the spot price of gold



this has clearly broken the support line at $1290....we have had head-fakes before so we shall see if this is real. As you can see already there is a recovery of sorts but $1290 is now a resistance.

the next support is $1250

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #166 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Selling OceanaGold Corporation [OGC:TSX] @ $2.53

Getting out of gold stocks now totally due to that drop in the spot price and will take the loss

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #167 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

it is pretty certain now....that triangle formation historically was bearish...the buyers were driving down the price steadily, accepting lower and lower maximum prices whereas the sellers were holding the line at around $1290 for a long time...this could not go on forever and today the sellers blinked and accepted lower prices.

here is the my chart with the next support levels....$1250 first....if that fails then $1200....if that fails...when it would not be good for gold holders.



I got my price for Oceanagold corp....I will jump back into gold mining stocks (goes for silver too) but not until I see a significant turn around....

those minor bullish signs I saw before were meaningless...I see that now...lesson learned...though I did predict the date of a major movement pretty well.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #168 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

This is going to be another losing week but again as with the last loss week when it is happening across the board and not company specific I just sit tight....except for the gold stock I had OceanaGold which I successfully sold and am sitting on the cash for now.



Well as can be seen in this chart the $1250 support has been tested today and it held but I doubt it will be the last test...I hope it holds since if it fails it will probably quickly fall to $1200 and then if that fails.....well that would not be good.

I am watching Gold as the recovery of gold mining stocks is quick on a rise in the gold spot price....eventually the price will turn around.

this exercise with gold charts is interesting for me. I have payed lip service to using trend lines in the past for resistance and support but never applied such attention to anything other than gold seriously....that is probably a mistake on my part.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #169 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received

Whats your take on the BXE bought deal then ammending it.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #170 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
Whats your take on the BXE bought deal then ammending it.

overall dropping the bought deal basis for 25,650,000 common shares from $9.75 to $9.50 is just a response to the downturn in the market and these are not immediately available to the public but rather these shares are sold to underwriters and thus they are giving the underwriters greater incentive to sell the shares to the public.



the share price should fall a bit lower...this chart is interesting.

I know you follow my posts and you have seen my discussion on the pattern as I call it "MACD/BBWidth" pinch.

last week, BXE looked like it was on the road to recovery however...look at the BBwidth and MACD charts....they had not reversed their direction despite the rise in price.....they looked like they were going to change but they did not. So that was not the end to the fall....right now...I think there are lower share prices to come. I see a support in the P&F chart somewhere around $9.00

I like BXE...I hold it in my real holdings...they have a rich section of Saskatchewan for oil production. All Oil stock is down I will probably add to my holdings when this reverses....I don't sell then buy back...I probably should do this but I find that my selling results in the price rising and I kick myself for having to chase the stock

The ammendment is simply to make it easier and more profitable for underwriters to resell the shares and was market driven....they get the money they need easier for the expansion they want to do.....long term this is a good stock IMHO.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #171 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well that support at $1250 did not last long...I did not think it would...



After such a long battle at $1290 where the commodity price virtually painted the inside of the triangle to its apex, simple drop to $1250 would have been trivial. As you can see it tested the support once yesterday then smashed it today.



No we are looking at $1200 as a support with $1250 as the resistance. $1200 looks to me to be a much stronger support. I hope so as if not we are probably looking at something in the $1000 range.

So....why am I interested in following the price of gold when I have exited all my gold stocks??? The reason is that these stocks will rebound well when/if the price of gold begins another bullish run. I can see a potential fall to $1000 but I doubt very much that it will fall further than that...peace in the real and financial world will not happen in my lifetime...gold will rise again...it is just a question of when and I want to try for that ground floor when it comes.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #172 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

The following chart is the status of the portfolio as of the close today



Another losing week....no sales other than Oceanagold ....I will just hunker down and ride out this situation in the markets.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #173 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received


Underexposed View Post
I will just hunker down and ride out this situation in the markets.

What does hunkering down entail?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #174 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
What does hunkering down entail?

not much of anything...I don't make purchases when groups of stocks are falling for reasons that they have little control. I watch areas of interest to me (eg. the commodity of gold) looking for a turnover.

I will accept paper losses but are wary of converting them to real losses by selling now.

think/rethink some strategy to get through the doldrums...

BTW I liked FC.TO so much I put some money into it and it has not performed too bad....thanks.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #175 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received


Underexposed View Post
not much of anything...I don't make purchases when groups of stocks are falling for reasons that they have little control. I watch areas of interest to me (eg. the commodity of gold) looking for a turnover.

I will accept paper losses but are wary of converting them to real losses by selling now.

think/rethink some strategy to get through the doldrums...

BTW I liked FC.TO so much I put some money into it and it has not performed too bad....thanks.

It was probably you I was bidding against for FC, not much volume. It's a long term hold for me, replacing some cash I had at Tangerine.

Back to hunkering down, how far do you let the market move against you before you take action? I don't see the difference between paper and realized losses. You are counting on the price to recover but that doesn't always happen. Big losses happen because investors don't take small losses.

With todays inexpensive commissions would you not be better off to go to cash when you are not sure where the markets are heading?
Being out of the market give you a fresh perspective and gets rid of any attachment you may have to a particular stock because you own it. Free up capital and look for other opportunities.

I know you studied the fundamentals and are content to sit a reversal out. But this a demo account and what ever decisions you make don't cost you anything. The decision to hold a stock is the same as deciding to buy it. What type of signals are your technical giving?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to deaddog for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #176 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
It was probably you I was bidding against for FC, not much volume. It's a long term hold for me, replacing some cash I had at Tangerine.

My purchases were made on May 27 and there were 30,000 or so shares traded that day...My volume traded I doubt had much of an effect on the price...which has risen about 15cents since then....yes, it should be a long term hold....I will probably hold it for a year or more given the reliability of the dividend.


deaddog View Post
Back to hunkering down, how far do you let the market move against you before you take action? I don't see the difference between paper and realized losses. You are counting on the price to recover but that doesn't always happen. Big losses happen because investors don't take small losses.

I am not a newbie at this...I have traded since 2004 and suffered through the financial crisis of 2008-2009. There is a huge difference for me between paper losses and realized losses.

First of all, I don't chose stocks at random for short term gains. Those that do must be prepared for bailing out at the drop of a hat as they are usually betting on a direction. They do not pay attention to fundamentals of a company because for less than a week fundamentals of a company are basically useless in deciding when to get in or out.

I lost a lot of money on paper in the 2008-2009 crash...as most investors did. On paper I lost about 45% on my holdings....but that was a paper loss it was not a real loss. The stocks that I invested in rebounded around March of 2009 and by the end of 2009 I had a gain of 39% from the lows of the beginning of 2009 and the following year I had a 27% increase in holdings. (these are gains AFTER subtracting out living expenses)

Now if I were psychic and sold all of my holdings in May of 2008 and waited til March 2009 before getting back into the market certainly I would have made a killing. But I do not possess such powers.


deaddog View Post
With todays inexpensive commissions would you not be better off to go to cash when you are not sure where the markets are heading?
Being out of the market give you a fresh perspective and gets rid of any attachment you may have to a particular stock because you own it. Free up capital and look for other opportunities.

Commissions are a trivial cost of investing for me....why? Because my gains when realized are a quantum leap from the $20 in and out of a trade. I don't make $60 on a trade and lose $20 of it to commissions.

When a company's shares drop due to forces beyond its control...when it is caught in a net of collateral damage of the fall of other stocks then I will keep those shares and add to them when the panic is over.

When the fall is due to a fundamental problem that directly affects a stock I own then I do exit that stock.

You have seen that already in my handling of this portfolio. Through monitoring the price of gold which fundamentally controls the value of all gold mining stocks...I have exited positions on B2Gold Corp, Sandstorm Gold and now OceanGold Corp. There is no reason to hang onto these stocks while the price of gold continues to fall. However, I would jump back into these stocks easily were that trend to reverse as they are decent companies.


deaddog View Post
I know you studied the fundamentals and are content to sit a reversal out. But this a demo account and what ever decisions you make don't cost you anything. The decision to hold a stock is the same as deciding to buy it. What type of signals are your technical giving?

The purpose of this journal do me is to demonstrate how I as a long term trader manage my portfolio. That is my goal. The fact is that even though individual stocks in this play portfolio have suffered unacceptable losses by your terms I have not suffered great losses in the overall portfolio and still have a positive gain since starting this journal.

I have not worked a day for a salary since 2004...my sole income (other than the trivial amount I receive from Canada Pension) is from my investments. I believe I know what I am doing...I know I know what I am doing.

I cannot count how many times early in my investment career when I sold a stock in a panic, only to see it rise from the ashes to further gains. I don't panic anymore. I don't have the stress of short term traders. I survived the 2008-2009 crash simply by squirreling away enough money in money market funds that would allow me to continue my lifestyle for at least 2 years...hard rations as it were. I am similarly prepared today. But I do not see a crash of those proportions today...at least not yet.

I will make changes to this portfolio when I see better opportunities. But right now I don't see better ones.



the worse loss I had was FPNewspapers FP.TO

I could have panicked on the second day and sold those shares but through my technical analysis the fall in price was far below the the lower Bollinger bands....this indicates unreasonable panic. My fundamental view of the company is unchanged. If I had sold when it hit that low point I would have had a serious dent in my portfolio and then saw the share rise converting paper losses to real losses...whereas not my paper losses are in recovery.

Currently the share price has re-gained that BB envelope though at first it did not do the normal recover of tending to move toward the 20day SMA....now you can see that the MACD/BBWIDTH pinch is evident and now truly the fall is over for the time being.

Would I put more money into this stock now??? Not yet as this stock is in consolidation and I want to see what will happen when the BB's tighten again...that will not happen for at least a month...in that mean time the shares will continue its climb to the the 20day SMA where it will twist around that line until the BB's get tighter.

I have a different mindset than a short term trader. I don't intend to change that mindset when it has successfully served me for 10 years of trading, one of which was the worst trading year of our generation.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #177 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have no idea why the last post did not show the chart for FPNewspapers [TSX:FP]

so here it is again...then the part relating to that stock will make sense


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #178 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received


Underexposed View Post
I am not a newbie at this...I have traded since 2004 and suffered through the financial crisis of 2008-2009. There is a huge difference for me between paper losses and realized losses.

First of all, I don't chose stocks at random for short term gains. Those that do must be prepared for bailing out at the drop of a hat as they are usually betting on a direction. They do not pay attention to fundamentals of a company because for less than a week fundamentals of a company are basically useless in deciding when to get in or out.

I lost a lot of money on paper in the 2008-2009 crash...as most investors did. On paper I lost about 45% on my holdings....but that was a paper loss it was not a real loss. The stocks that I invested in rebounded around March of 2009 and by the end of 2009 I had a gain of 39% from the lows of the beginning of 2009 and the following year I had a 27% increase in holdings. (these are gains AFTER subtracting out living expenses)

As good as that sounds you are still down. Of course you took out living expenses but you havenít told us what percentage of capital that was.

Given a $100,000 portfolio a loss of 45% would leave you with $55000
Increase that amount by 29% = $70950 and increase that amount by 27% and you have $90,107. You still need an 11% gain to get back to even.

The other aspect is that you didnít have any capital to invest when the market bottomed and started back up.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #179 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
As good as that sounds you are still down. Of course you took out living expenses but you haven’t told us what percentage of capital that was.


And why should I do that....it is none of your business frankly to be able to calculate my real holdings.


deaddog View Post
Given a $100,000 portfolio a loss of 45% would leave you with $55000
Increase that amount by 29% = $70950 and increase that amount by 27% and you have $90,107. You still need an 11% gain to get back to even.

First of all....you cannot live on $100,000 for the last 6 years and have no other income....this portfolio in this journal is simply an amount for instructive example.

Second of all...many investors were completely wiped out by that financial crisis and have yet to recover. You are quite right in your calculation that I am somewhere in the neighbourhood of withing 10% of what I had back in 2008 but while you may pooh-pooh this situation...I don't....I was not wiped out, I continued to live my lifestyle of travel and hobbies AND I did not have to go back to work to earn a living....


deaddog View Post
The other aspect is that you didn’t have any capital to invest when the market bottomed and started back up.

That is ABSOLUTELY wrong...I told you that I had salted away sufficient funds to live on in Money market mutual funds for 2 years...I did NOT exhaust those funds during that 10 month period of decline so I had funds available....ALSO when it was clear that there was a recovery I actively traded stocks at that point...taking capital losses then to balance the capital gains I was making during the recovery....I did not stand pat during the recovery...that would have been stupid.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since you are so interested in my finances let us take a look at your potential gains/losses from your journal

Now I will assume you are trading in your journal the same as you do in real life.

from May 1st in your blog


Quoting 
Position sizing:

I show my position size as a percentage of capital at risk. I predetermine how much capital I want to risk on each trade. I take the difference between my calculated stop and my entry price and divide the risk capital by that amount.

For example;
Account size = $100,000
Capital at risk =0.5% = $500
If the difference between my entry and my stop = $1.00 then position size is 500
If the difference between my entry and my stop = $2.00 then position size is 250

The percentage amount I quote is the least amount I will lose. In a falling market I can lose a lot more as stops get filled as market orders.

Hmmm...you limit your wins to basically $500/share

from April 28 in your journal


Quoting 
Picked up some QCOM @ 77.96
Stop @ 77.30 Initial target 80.00

so you would purchase 250 shares as a position because it is a $2 spread

so your investment is 250 X $77.96 = $19,490 to make a potential $500

but you did not make $500....you stopped out at $78.70...or $0.64/share or a total of $0.64 x 250 = $160 but you would have made less than that as your commission costs are not included at $10 in + $10 out your gain is only $140.00

and this seems to be one of your better gains...there are a fair number of losses that you report and admittedly a few wins.

Frankly I doubt you could make a living at this even if your capital was 10 times this amount...you are basically breaking even from the look at it.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

as far as the status of my portfolio goes currently it stands at



I am currently up about 3.76% or $3,760 on an initial investment of $100,000

My dividends represent a significant part of that total and will escalate nicely in the future



with no changes whatsoever I will earn about $800 per quarter from those dividends

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No...I do not have to apologize for my approach to long term trading.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #180 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I thought I would comment on the price of gold and an interesting observation in the gold spot price chart.



this is the hourly chart....we are back to this triangle formation again....again the seller is backing down accepting a lower and lower high but this time digging in their heels at what looks to be about $1242.00

I doubt very much that the support level will hold for very long...it will probably break down in 48 hours or less.

this chart for the spot price is VERY interesting.



First of all the spot price is tracking the lower Bollinger band...the BBwidth is rising, the MACD and Slow Sto are falling....there is nothing here to suggest anything but a continued fall.

HOWEVER....look at the volumes (ounces traded or contracts?? not sure what they are) but whatever they are the volumes are sooooooo minor as to be almost non-existent compared to previous volumes of the past months.

I checked the chart back 10 years and there were no similar cases where the volume fell to almost zero.

I wish there was as there might be a clue as to what this represents.....I will be watching this closely.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #181 (permalink)
 deaddog 
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 882 since May 2013
Thanks: 135 given, 2,393 received


Underexposed View Post
And why should I do that....it is none of your business frankly to be able to calculate my real holdings.

I couldnít agree more. Your real holdings, or mine, are none of my or anyone elseís business. Thatís why I show the results of my trades in percentages. That way anyone reading the posts can relate to the trades using their own account size.

What I was trying to ascertain was the total returns you have realized using your system. To say that you had a return of 27% after taking out living expenses is impressive but would be more informative if we knew the total return.


Underexposed View Post
First of all....you cannot live on $100,000 for the last 6 years and have no other income....this portfolio in this journal is simply an amount for instructive example.

I realize that. Like you I use $100,000 as an example to illustrate my points. Itís a nice round number and it works well with percentages.

Underexposed View Post
That is ABSOLUTELY wrong...I told you that I had salted away sufficient funds to live on in Money market mutual funds for 2 years...I did NOT exhaust those funds during that 10 month period of decline so I had funds available....ALSO when it was clear that there was a recovery I actively traded stocks at that point...taking capital losses then to balance the capital gains I was making during the recovery....I did not stand pat during the recovery...that would have been stupid.

When you say your account gained 27% less living expenses, does that include the new money you added to the account from your emergency funds?

Why were you willing to take losses on the way up and not on the way down?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #182 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


deaddog View Post
I couldnít agree more. Your real holdings, or mine, are none of my or anyone elseís business. Thatís why I show the results of my trades in percentages. That way anyone reading the posts can relate to the trades using their own account size.

What I was trying to ascertain was the total returns you have realized using your system. To say that you had a return of 27% after taking out living expenses is impressive but would be more informative if we knew the total return.

When you say your account gained 27% less living expenses, does that include the new money you added to the account from your emergency funds?

There is no "new money" in my portfolio. The "emergency money" is/was in the form of Money Market Mutual Funds which are part of the overall portfolio I have ( I have several portfolios depending on use...$US, TFSA, RRSP and General)and their monthly distributions are reinvested in more units of the fund....I chose Money Market funds as they have a constant value of $10/unit and have no commissions associated with buying or selling...at least that is true of my broker TD Waterhouse. Hence the value is unchanged no matter what the conditions of the market and provide a small increase through the distributions. The money is available in 24 hours to live on or invest in other stocks if I don't have ready cash in my other portfolios.

I don't keep 2 years of living money hanging around in cash in a bank account....that is stupid.


deaddog View Post
Why were you willing to take losses on the way up and not on the way down?

Quite obviously again...I sell and take a loss on the way up because I see a better opportunity for the money.

I don't sell on the way down because I do not see a better opportunity.

Your questions are becoming annoying and this thread of your conversation will not continue on this discussion if you do not want to be placed on an ignore list...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #183 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

As you might have guessed by now I like mining stocks.

I don't like exploration companies unless they have active revenue streams from a mine that they have developed....the reason is because it is very difficult to evaluate the status of such a company and there are a lot of scams in this group of companies.

Exploration companies sell dreams...not reality. From the time they discover a deposit, evaluate its commercial viability (if it has potential then at this point they may sell the property), build the infrastructure (roads, rail line, electricity, accommodations, mining structure) and start producing the metal, it could take as much as 10 years and fail at any point along the way.

However, that is not what they will tell you on the this journey....they will report drilling results which usually are cherry picked to show the good ones...You must look at these results carefully and read between the lines. For example: if the high ore is 300 feet under ground...then this cannot be an easy to mine open pit mine....it will be a more expensive underground mine and take longer to bring to production.

They will tout the value of the ore body...based on the current value of the metal. Gold was worth over $1800/oz a few years ago...exploration companies of the time were touting the value of their estimated ore body on the basis of that price back then....those potential mines are still in the development stage and the price of gold has fallen by at least 1/3 and is still falling....

GOLD mines however are easier to evaluate...they have production revenue, mining efficiencies, grades of the ore body and reserves that are harder numbers.

What drives the stock price of these stocks is the price of the commodity! That and their ability to mine the commodity...labour and maintenance issues and also its ore reserves...this is for mature mines....for smaller startup mines...the above applies PLUS the potential of being a buyout target from the more mature mines (they don't want to explore for mines as it is too expensive...they would rather buy out a small proven mine)

SO....there you have it as far as my feelings about mining stocks.

some metals seem joined at the hip....Silver and Gold march to much the same drummer....You don't see one metal price rise and the other fall...not very often anyway. Platinum and Palladium are similar as they have both jewelery uses as well as strong, very similar industrial uses....Palladium is often referred too as the "poor man's Platinum"

I will discuss the price of Gold and Silver in this post and other metals in succeeding posts.

GOLD

Here is the chart for Gold on a daily basis



we have followed this chart for weeks now...if you have read previous posts of mine using trend lines helped me predict the time of a major change almost to the day by following the progress of the price to the apex of a resistance/support triangle...I was less successful in the prediction of the direction of the movement but learned a few lessons there in making decisions of that nature on minor bullish/bearish tendencies {sigh}

The dotted line in the above chart represents a MAJOR resistance line that must be passed before any thoughts of $1500+ gold price can be imagined.

The solid red line is the extension of the top of the previous triangle structure (the support line of that triangle is useless now)

The dotted Green line is the line-in-the-sand support which, if it fails when probably see the price of gold fall to $1000/oz or worse

The solid Green line is the current support line. As you can see, it forms a declining channel with signs of a recovery of sorts from the drop in price, though that is tenuous at this point.



this is a shorter timeline of hourly prices....the dotted red line represents the resistance trend during the plummet following the breach of the previous support line. As you can see that fall is over for the time being...we have settled into a rather narrow channel between the solid red resistance and the dotted green support.

The solid green line is a tentative support line that is current as we approach the red resistance. This is a rising triangle and as such is generally tending to bullish as the sellers are raising their minimum price while the buyers are drawing the line at $1248ish. It always amazes me how gold prices fill these triangle structures to the apex. If it broke that resistance then I see another short term resistance at $1260.

SILVER

Silver has a few more industrial uses but basically it is a jewelry and emotion stock like Gold

Here is the daily chart



On a daily basis we see that we are stuck in a descending wedge. I should have also drawn in a MAJOR support line at $19.00 and that has been broken (about the same time as Gold fell)...so it did not hold the line as long as gold so that channel I illustrated seems to be significant. and it does not look good long term.



this hourly chart shows that the drop on May 31 has stopped and we have a more positive channel shown by the Solid green and red lines...The dotted red line shows a resistance line that has been now broken...HOWEVER I would not get excited about that as the MAJOR support line at $19 has been broken and is now a resistance. So I can see the price rising to $19 but that is all at this point.

Conclusion

So those are the charts, short and long term, for Gold and Silver. They look different on the surface but they really track eachother if you do a performance comparison



Look at this overlay....when Gold rises...Silver rises...when Gold falls Silver falls....there is a bit of a lag on the part of Silver but I think you can look for confirmations of the price of one metal by looking at the movement in price of the other.

I hope you found this discussion interesting....I will do a similar post on Platinum/Palladium soon.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #184 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well it has been a bit of a roller coaster but we are on the plus side this week.




Things seem to have settled down...I should start looking for a stock in the $1 -$2/share range...If you have any Canadian stocks in this range I would be happy to give my opinion on them.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #185 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

The time has come to add another stock to the portfolio

Chorus Aviation Inc. [CHR.B:TSX]

this is a small airline in Canada and was incorporated on September 27, 2010 and is a dividend-paying holding company which owns Jazz Aviation LP and a number of other companies involved in aviation related businesses.

Fundamentals

this is an announcement of their first quarter earnings for 2014

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

here is a quote for the beginning of the article


Quoting 
Chorus Aviation Inc. announces first quarter earnings

Intention to change from quarterly to monthly dividend in third quarter 2014
Intention to complete the early redemption of outstanding convertible debentures

Best on-time arrival performance in Canada for the tenth consecutive quarter
Consistent quarterly profitability since 2006

HALIFAX, May 15, 2014 /CNW/ - Chorus Aviation Inc. ('Chorus') (TSX: CHR.B CHR.A CHR.DB) today announced its first quarter 2014 earnings.

Q1 2014 HIGHLIGHTS

EBITDA1 of $47.3 million, up 38.3%.
EBITDA margin of 11.4%.
Operating income of $31.2 million, up 50.0%.
Adjusted net income1 of $20.3 million, up 38.0%.
Adjusted net income per share1 of $0.17 per basic share.
$60.0 million early, partial repayment of 9.5% maturing convertible debentures.


For the first quarter 2014, Chorus reported EBITDA of $47.3 million compared to $34.2 million in the same quarter 2013, an increase of $13.1 million. Operating income was $31.2 million, $10.4 million higher than the same period 2013. Adjusted net income of $20.3 million or $0.17 per basic share, was up by $5.6 million or $0.05 per basic share over first quarter 2013. Chorus incurred $2.8 million in voluntary employee severance in the first quarter versus $5.7 million in the same period in 2013. Chorus has invested $12.7 million since the inception of this cost savings program in the first quarter of 2013.

The company currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.113/share (yield of 10.96%) which will be a monthly dividend (divide payout by 3) later in the year.

Technical

P&F Chart

here is the P&F chart which I use for resistance/support levels and targets



I like this kinda chart....it is finally breaking out after years since 2008-2009. there should be strong support at $4.00 and a minor resistances at $4.70 then $4.80 then $5.30. It is hard to evaluate their effect (if any) since it is such a long time ago. I do think though that $5.60 would be a stronger resistance point.

I don't really set targets but I would evaluate continued holding at those minor resistances along the way.

Trigger Chart



this stock already has started a run and stalled at $4.10...it could be that this run might be over for a wihile but I think the $4.00 support will hold. I love the Slow Sto being pegged into so called over bought zone which I treat and bullish right now.

The response of the MACD and BBWidth are positive though a bit muted

Sentiment Chart



Everything is bullish in this chart...the ADX DI+/- , RSI and CMF are very strong at this point....I think the halt at $4.10 is only temporary right now.

Ichimoku Chart



Another very bullish chart from all indicators

Conclusion

I will buy this stock for my fantasy portfolio...But at what price?



Look at that head banging at the $4.10....I could try for a purchase of $4.08 but that runs the risk for losing this order if it passes $4.10

I am entering a limit order for 1000 shares of Chorus Aviation Inc. [CHR.B:TSX] @ $4.10/share

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #186 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well that was good timing...with the order for Chorus Aviation Inc. [CHR.B:TSX] was filled immediately (I know as I placed a real order after making that post and it was filled immediately and about 30 mins later the price broke through that $4.10 barrier and is about $4.14 now...I wish all trades when so well.



We shall see how good this ride will be. The main travel season is entering now, apparently Canadian airlines are doing pretty good now....the dividend should be nice too add..I will miss this month's dividend as ex-dividend was May 27 but that is ok.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #187 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well we were going fine until today



I am comfortable with these stocks even though 2 of them are boat anchors right now...Kelso had a wild ride today on no news...probably profit taking...FPNewspapers is still in consolidation. I like these stocks long term so I will hang onto them...We are still in the black and that is all that matters

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #188 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have been quite busy lately...I have not paid attention to my fantasy or real portfolios very much the last few days.

Nothing has really changed...my problem stocks are still KLS.TO and particularly FP.TO



FPnewpapers (FP.TO) is a quite thinly traded stock and as such is deadly for day traders but it does not worry me as far as getting in and out as I still believe in the long term dividend potential for this stock and I do not hold a great number of shares that would make it difficult to exit in a reasonable period of time.



you can see here that there was a spike today in the price...we are entering a key period now with the Bollinger bands getting tight. Despite that fall, there is little effect on the indicators. The position of the share price is precarious now as it never has completely reached the 20daySMA...and is hugging the lower BB but the MACD and Slo Sto barely budged though admittedly they are not looking good.

I am going to give it a chance to recover and set a Limit Stop Loss @ $4.05 - $4.10 for the 2000 shares of FP.TO

Kelso Industries is a company for the future as the use of oil tanker railway cars for the transportation of crude oil is not going to end and this company has the solution to making them safer...this dip in price does not bother me.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #189 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...I have talked about FPnewspapers and so far the price has not tripped the stop-loss though it can close yesterday dropping to $4.11 before rebounding to $4.24....so three is hope that there will be a rise.

Another problem in this portfolio is Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [BXE:TSX]

So why did it fall to about $9.00???

well it was due to this action....

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols


Quoting 
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. Announces Closing of $172.6 Million Bought Deal Financing

TSX, NYSE MKT: BXE

CALGARY, June 5, 2014 /PRNewswire/ - Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. ("Bellatrix" or the "Company") (TSX, NYSE MKT: BXE) is pleased to announce that it has closed its previously announced bought deal offering of 18,170,000 common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares") at a price of $9.50 per Common Share for aggregate gross proceeds of $172,615,000 (the "Offering"). The Common Shares issued pursuant to the Offering included the exercise in full by the underwriters of the over-allotment option. The syndicate of underwriters for the Offering was co-led by Canaccord Genuity Corp. and Dundee Securities Ltd. and included AltaCorp Capital Inc., Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd., National Bank Financial Inc., Northland Capital Markets, TD Securities Inc., CIBC World Markets Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Paradigm Capital Inc. and Scotia Capital Inc.

Net proceeds from the Offering will be utilized to temporarily reduce outstanding indebtedness under the Company's credit facilities, thereby freeing up borrowing capacity that may be redrawn, from time to time, to fund the Company's ongoing capital expenditure program and for general corporate purposes. As a result of completion of the Offering, Bellatrix confirms that, as previously announced, it has increased the Company's 2014 Capital Expenditure Budget from $440 million to $500 million.

So this deal adds to dilution but puts $172.6Million into its coffers to service debt and future projects. This offer drew the price down with it with a bit of an overshot to $9.00. Now the purchasers of these shares will actively promote their sale and the price should rise to previous levels and probably beyond IMHO.





you can see the improvement in the CMF climbing out of the mud and the RSI and ADX are looking better now.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #190 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well we made back some ground lost earlier in the week....the losses are getting less (we almost broke even this week.

Here is the weekly status



Have a good Father's Day weekend

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #191 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Gold took a huge tumble a while ago and now it has fought back a bit



But as you can see the rise was stopped by the diagonal resistance so that rise cannot be take seriously at this point.
It has to pass that resistance diagonal to get me excited...tired of that metal teasing me.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #192 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well there has been a bounce in the price of gold and it is currently in the $1290/oz range. This is a significant improvement over its fall to $1200/oz a few weeks ago....the rise may be due to troubles in Iraq...not the Ukraine really as it fell during that initial crisis...there was threat to Europe there but the threat in Iraq is potentially threatening North America more in the spike in oil prices. It is hard to see that being resolved in a hurry unless the USA re-invades that country to put out that fire .... something they are reluctant to do for obvious reasons...

But is this rise in the price of gold sustainable??



well there is a serious attempt to breach 2 resistances. Today we have breached the diagonal resistance...the day has not finished so it could retrace that gain and it is threatening the dotted resistance at about $1290 but again could fall back from there....if it is successful then IMHO this would be serious ONLY if it passes the dash-dot resistance at $1360.



this is the outlook of the spot price yesterday...as you can see we breached that resistance line today (assuming it closes above it today....that $1360 resistance is pretty solid and would really signal a true up-trend.



This chart shows additional resistance in the form of the 50 day SMA which is almost $1290

as far as the price position goes I see it still in consolidation...note the Slow Sto is still under 50 the MACD has yet to be a higher high and the BBWidth is still falling. The BB's are getting tighter and the price is positioned nicely. above the 20daySMA....but it does not suggest breakout to me yet.



This chart confirms the cautionary note. It has some positive notes in the CMF almost climbing out of the mud and the RSI has a positive slope but the values are not bullish yet...the RSI is only 50 and the ADX is "chaining" in the DI+/- indicating indecision to me.



The Ichi chart shows there is still a lot of work to do before this rise can be considered to be bullish and sustainable. It is still under that RED cloud, the lower border is at $1300ish confirming other resistance set points, the CCI is positive but weak and the OnBal vol looks better but not earth shaking.

Conclusion

While encouraging, this is not a done-deal...I think there will be a fall back in the next day or so....with the BB's getting more tight...hopefully the price will stay above the 20daySMA as they tighten...then there should be a bounce towards that $1300 resistance.

I don't invest in gold directly, rather in gold mining stocks and these whipsaw under this scenario....I want to see a sustainable trend before I return to my gold stocks....been burned too often by getting in early.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #193 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well now....this surge in the price of gold is for real it seems....Smashing 2 resistances like that is nothing to sneer at....I still want it to pass $1350 before I get back in but it is on the way to challenging that level.


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #194 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well we are back into the black this week.



The big winner this week was Kelso Technologies [KLS:TSX] ... it gained $0.69 today (11%)

BNN - Watch TV Online | It's a crude, crude world: why pipelines won't displace rail

Check out the above video link to BNN Business News Network.

This video gives an excellent discussion on the use of rail lines to transport crude oil AND it gives a very positive view of the company - Kelso Technologies Inc and what unique products they have for transportation/retrofit to rail tankers. At minute 4:30 the analyst discusses Kelso Technologies specifically and gives his target of $8/share...

THIS IS A MUST WATCH VIDEO if you are remotely interested in the transportation of Oil in Canada and the USA

this is the only new news on this company and is the reason for the 11% gain in price today and I submit they have the right product for the right time. It is a Canadian company with their manufacturing location in Texas, operations in Illinois and head office in British Columbia

In Canada you would buy [KLS:TSX] and it trades about 200,000 - 300,000 shares per day

In the USA they have a much smaller presence being in the OTCQX...that is a common way small Canadian companies enter the US marketplace. Kelso Technologies Inc. [KEOSF:OTCQX] but it trades small volumes right now .... typically < 50,000

IMHO....this company is an excellent long term play for the future gains....

**************************************************************

I have taken off the stop-loss on FPnewspapers [FP.TSX]



I no longer fear it falling below $4.10...if it drifts to that level again then I will sell it immediately .... right now I see it going sideways ...the BBwidth has flatlined and is low...the MACD show some positive slope as does the Slow Sto...I believe the worst is over now.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #195 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well the last time I commented on the direction of the price of gold I was completely wrong. Two resistances were broken and the price climbed.

Why am I focused on gold prices...I don't play commodity futures or invest in physical gold (though I admit to having a couple of ounces in 1 oz wafers lying in a safety deposit box...24kt gold chain would have been better but I knew not much 30 years ago...yeah they have been there that long {sigh} )

I follow gold prices because a slight rise in gold prices results a pretty decent price rise in GOLD MINING Stocks. It actually affects anything gold but I like producing mines because the are more predictable.

Here is evidence to what I believe

I am going to compare the price of 4 producing mining stock to the price of gold over the last 6 months.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd [TSX:AEM] current share price: $40.12/share CDN
Gold Corp [TSX:G] ............................current share price: $29.17/share CDN
B2Gold Corp [TSX:BTO] ....................current share price: $ 3.11/share CDN
Lakeshore Gold [TSX:LSG]................current share price: $ 0.99/share CDN

All of these companies are producing mines and all of them make money...despite the overall drop in the price of Gold since the glory days of $1800+/oz gold. Lakeshore gold is a very weak company in the past that appears to be coming around to being profitable.

I am not a great fan in Sub-$1 shares but it is from there that you can find winners....BUT they must have little or declining debt and increasing Operating Revenues and especially if they are emerging into being profitable.

Here is LSG's balance sheets and income statements

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

this had a huge cost of revenue charge in the 12/2013 quarter which was an Impairment charge relating to lower gold prices, lower Canadian dollar value and reduced reserves/grades.

it is discussed here : Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

LSG is risky but appears to be in recovery and has potential IMHO

Let us look at performance of these companies versus the price of gold



This chart compares the performance of the above companies versus the price of Gold.

At the beginning of this year Gold started a 2.5 month rise in value...you can see the dramatic rise in all these gold stocks...interesting the rise seems to be the inverse of the share price (more about that later).

But look at what happens at position 2 when the price of Gold falls gradually .... ALL of the share prices fall dramatically...the smaller the share price....the greater the fall....this is important to realize and something I am trying to hammer into my brain .

In April (Pos 3) gold prices rise again...the big mines response was muted (the rise in gold price was smaller) but the lower priced shares responded better....but note the fall of the price of gold (pos 4) as small as it was dramatically affected ALL of the mining stocks.

Now we come to the beginning of this month (Pos 5)...gold is on the rise again....the stock prices of these mines are again on the rise

I think you will agree....there is a relationship between the Mining stock and its commodity...it only makes sense to me.

Let us see how much we make on these small gold price swings.... Let us invest $10,000 in each company on Jan1 and sell on March 15

Ticker ........................... AEM................. G .............. BTO ............... LSG

Jan1 price/share:........ $28.40 ........ $24.00 ......... $2.30 ............ $0.54
Shares bought:............. 352 ............ 417 ............. 4347 ............. 18518
Mar 15 price/share:.... $38.40 ......... $31.50 ........ $3.50 ............ $0.96
profit/share:................ $10.00 ......... $8.50 ......... $1.20 ............ $0.42
overall profit:.............. $3520 ......... $3544 ......... $5216 ............ $7777
% gain:......................... 35% ............ 35% ............ 52% .............. 77.8%

Well this is not an extensive comparison and I took the prices off a chart in a consistent manner but they are not 100% accurate (I was in a hurry.)

It does show though....if you pick a lower priced gold mining stock...a profitable (rising profit) company with low or lowering debt ...the reward is certainly worth the risk...BUT you must be vigilant in watching the trend in the price of gold and sell when it falls.

I am still learning on this point and that is why I am still out of gold stocks at this point. I don't trust this rise and have been burned in the past by jumping on the band wagon too late and not paying attention when it fails.

But if the price rises above $1340....I will be in with both feet...

Hope you find this post interesting.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #196 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...this play depends on the price of Gold continuing to rise. From the previous post you see that Lakeshore Gold Company [TSX:LSG] responds in a very volatile way to the price of Gold. I am buying this stock based on the belief that the price will rise.



It was not hard to get this stock at $0.99/share today as there was about 1 million shares traded and the day has not ended with the price varying between $0.97 and $1.01

I have enough money in cash to purchase 1750 shares...if it takes off as I hope I will probably sell a loser then add to the shares of LSG and set a stop-loss to trail the gains....I don't set a stop loss now because 1. I don't expect the of gold price to plunge 2. if it does I have no illusions that the price will correct and will pull the plug on LSG.

$1700 is not a major portion of my portfolio and it will not go to wallpaper if it declines....based at my look at their fundamentals

EDIT: I was a little carried away and "math challenged"...I don't have the money for 1750 shares...My phantom broker gave me hell and limited my purchase to 1700 shares...would my real broker was so understanding...hahaha....I will correct that graphic in the next post.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #197 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well we eked out a positive week...$50 but I'll take it



You will note that I have not changed things much....the addition of Lakeshore Gold Corp [TSX:LSG] is the only really major play this week and that has done NOTHING , for the reason that the price of Gold has been flat all week. I see good things for this stock but without the help of an increase in the price of Gold....nothing will happen.

I well discuss the status and future of each stock in this portfolio over the weekend....until then

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #198 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well, it is time I did a comprehensive review of the stocks in my play portfolio. I will not do a fundamental review since for some stocks they do not have their first quarter reports in. That is the nuisance of historical fundamental data...you are always working on information that is at least 3 months old at best.

Fundamental data , for me is an information source for long term...charting is basically real time decisions as a result.

I am going to just follow the list in my spreadsheet in the previous post

Lund Mining Corporation [TSX:LUN.TO]



As can be seen here in circle #1 the share price was in an extended consolation after a nice rise ending on the last week of May. When you add in the indicator data of circle#2 this di not look good since the share price stayed below the 20daySMA ...the Slow Sto and MACD were in a long decline...the BBwidth was encouraging though as despite this decline in the Slow Sto and MACD the BBwidth had a muted response.

NOW, you see an uptick in price which is pretty strong and firmly above the 20daySMA...there are nice upticks in the slow Sto and MACD as well...the BBwidth is still muted but this reversal of the MACD and SLo Sto is encouraging

the circle #3 in the Ichimoku chart shows that the price had dipped into the green cloud but has successfully fought out of this glue...the OnBal Volume indicator has resumed a positive slope after being basically flatlined during the May/June decline...the CCI is mildly bullish too.

Conclusion

There is a possibility that this is a head-fake but I believe this to be a low probability. The chart looks to me to be setting up for a positive breakout......HOLD


Lakeshore Gold Corporation [TSX:LSG.TO]



I am not going to spend much time on these charts as I just added LSG a few days ago.

This is a Gold play...you can see by comparing the LSG chart to that of the spot price of Gold that the two charts follow eachother. A breakout in the price of gold will trigger a similar response in LSG.

Conclusion

Watch the price of Gold like a hawk...for now....HOLD


That is all for this post....I will add the other stocks in stages as the weekend progresses.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #199 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

The previous post evaluated the Mining stocks in this portfolio and now we will look at the Oil and Gas stocks.

Bonavista Energy Corp [TSX:BNP]

This is one of the first stocks chosen for this portfolio and contributes a dividend of $0.04/share



this stock has been limping sideways for about 6 weeks now. The BB's are narrowing as shown in the main chart as well as the lowering of the BBwidth. Currently this chart is mildly Bearish...but that still could change for the better with the narrowing BB's. The hopeful signs are that the MACD and Slow Sto may be stopping their declines and are not really in bearish territory...yet. Also note the 2 doji in the prices...this is indecision IMHO and could be the start of a reversal.

The Ichimoku chart is bearsh as well...both indicators are not looking good and the price is below the junction of the red/green clouds. The only saving grace here is the clouds are currently quite thin at this point.

Conclusion

It may be time to take the small profit and dividends gained here and move onto another stock. BUT I will give it a chance to recover and reverse its trend as the indications are not strong at this point.

But I don't trust it right now....there is a support at $16.00....So this will be a hold with a Limit STOP-LOSS set at $16.00 - $15.95

Bellatrix Exploration [TSX:BXE]

Frankly this stock has been a disappointment for me. I like the company fundamentally but they went and made that "announced bought deal offering of 18,170,000 common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares") at a price of $9.50 per Common Share". This was quite the dilution and set the price for a while at around $9.50 while these shares get absorbed.



You can see that decline in the above chart as well there appears to be the possibility of a double bottom at the $8.90...so perhaps we have reached a point of recovery. the BBWidth does appear to be as low as it will go....the Slow Sto is about as low as it can go and the MACD basically flat for a month or so.

The Ichimoku is not the greatest looking...the indicators are full on bear and the share price is far below the red/green clouds.

Conclusion

I am on the fence here...it does not look good chartwise but there IS a reason for the drop to this level and that is that stupid "bought deal offering" dropping the price and diluting the shares. On the other hand...perhaps there is a double bottom here at $8.90....This is a hold right now until this squeeze of the bb's is resolved....I will set a LIMIT STOP-LOSS @ $8.85 - $8.90 I am accepting a potential greater loss here but I will keep this stock in a watchlist as I do like it long term.

Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:BNP]

This company is a money earner on the dividend side with a 6.29% yield...but it also is doing pretty well as a capital gains as well. From the analyst point of view there have been less than excited following

Viewing Company Pengrowth Energy | StockChase

but the stock climbs slowly and has never defaulted on its dividend.



the share price is in consolidation right now after a nice run....it did what normally happens after a run...dropping to the 20daySMA but rebounded nicely off of that. The MACD and Slow Sto remain in bullish territory...the BBWidth is falling reflecting the tightening of the BB's...it will be at least 10-15 days before there will be a major surge/decline.

The Ichimoku could not be better...High above Green clouds and the indicators below are full on bullish

Conclusion

this is a strong HOLD...IF the other two oil stocks fail and the stop-losses are tripped I will buy at least 1000 more shares of PGF...this will be a winner for quite a while IMHO

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #200 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Canadian Banking stocks are pretty solid. There are the "Big 5" being the Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD], Royal Bank of Canada [[TSX:RY], Bank of Montreal [TSX:BMO], Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce [TSX:CM] and Scotia Bank (Bank of Nova Scotia) [TSX:BNS]

These banks are also on the NYSE for Americans viewing this journal.

To show you the performance of Canadian banking stocks versus major American financial institutions ,Bank of America[BAC], JP Morgan [JPM], Wells Fargo Corp [WFC] and CitiGroup [C] consider the following chart which follows the fortunes of these banks through the financial crisis of 2008-2009 through to today.



the only American bank to outperform the Canadian banks is Wells Fargo Corp with JP Morgan at the bottom of the Canadian group of banks...Bank of America and Citigroup are far down the list.

Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD]

I guess I am a bit biased in choosing this bank stock...after all I have dealt with TDWaterhouse their discount brokerage for the last 10 years with no complaints and have banked with them for over 30 years. But that aside, as can be seen in the above chart it has been a solid performer.



this is a Bullish stock that has been in consolidation for the past 3 weeks or so. The BBwidth is tight, the Slow Sto is in Bullish territory with an uptick, the MACD has stopped its decline....a breakout is in the offing any day now



The Ichimoku chart is bullish too though a bit more subdued...it needs that boost in Share price to clear the clouds on the horizon....the OnBal Vol is clearly bullish the CCI appears to be rising.

CONCLUSION

This is a HOLD. It is an expensive stock so it is difficult with limited funds to add to this stock in a significant way but I would add another 100 shares probably if one of the oil companies with stop losses tripped a sale. It is not a glamourous rocket in share price but it has a decent quarterly dividend and a nice slow capital gain. This will be an extremely long time hold.

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal


Last Updated on March 21, 2015


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
 

Our 12-year anniversary w/ $$,$$$ prizes (check soon)

June
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts