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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #11 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
What do you do when the trade goes against you?

Do you have a computed uncle point where you take a loss?

I am very confident in my buy-in...I don't use a stop-loss on buys even if I lose 10% in short order. Remember I don't pick junk...I pick solid companies in a bullish trend so a minor setback usually corrects itself in a day or so.

I do use stop-loss orders when I believe a stock has run its course. I will not sell directly because the stock still might have something in the tank...so I set a stop-loss far enough back that I don't expect it to trigger on the next day....actually I set a Limit Stop-loss. Here I will set a range where I am willing to sell the stock....If it plummets through that range I won't automatically sell and I will then look at the situation as to whether I will sell outright or not....most sudden drops have a pullback so I won't be selling at the bottom.

I have the feeling that you are a day-trader and that requires a different skill set than I really use though. I hope you use TA to enter and exit your trades...not commenting on your trades (as I know nothing about your trading habits) but most day traders don't have much TA skills and they trade scared IMHO...they enter too late and exit too early.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post

I have the feeling that you are a day-trader and that requires a different skill set than I really use though. I hope you use TA to enter and exit your trades...not commenting on your trades (as I know nothing about your trading habits) but most day traders don't have much TA skills and they trade scared IMHO...they enter too late and exit too early.

Wrong assumption.
Like yourself I use fundamentals to come up with a watch list, then price action to find entries and exits. My trades may be held for a couple days,a couple weeks or in some cases years.

I don't use indicators other than trend lines. My feelings are that indicators just give a visually pleasing picture of what price has done, and if you pay attention to what price is doing you can be one step ahead of the traders who rely on indicators.

I haven't spent much time with mining or Oil&Gas because the fundamentals I look for don't show up. Miners for the most part plow all their profits back into new exploration. They have a terrible record for bringing projects in on budget.

Right now I'm building a position in TCM. Picked some up on Jan 14 on the breakout. Still holding.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #13 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
Hi,

My handle is "Underexposed" which makes the title a bit provocative I suppose but I have used this handle for several years now and some people may recognize me because of it.

This is a great site and primarily devoted to American stocks. While I do have a small American stock portfolio as Canadians have unfettered access to American stocks, the reverse is not true. Unless the Canadian company decides to open a listing on an American exchange, the company will be virtually unknown to American investors.

Canadian markets are very much influenced by commodities. For example, in the Oil and Gas and Mining sectors, the Canadian market leads the world in listings of new and established companies.

http://www.tmx.com/en/pdf/Mining_Sector_Sheet.pdf

http://www.tmx.com/en/pdf/OilGas_Sector_Profile.pdf

This especially shows itself in the new listings which can be important as if successful, they either can grow to be substantial companies over time or are takeover targets for larger companies. The NYSE may have a larger market value for their mining stocks but that is simply because they represent more mature, large companies. The junior stocks for O&G and Mining which have more growth potential are better represented in Canada and will be seen by Americans only if they search the OTCB which is the easiest route of entry for Canadian companies into the American market.

The my purpose in creating this journal is to show how I go about selection Canadian stock with side comments at times on how to avoid scams in the Canadian and American market in commodity stocks. I use a mixed approach of Fundamental analysis to identify potential good candidates for investment and the final selection, timing, follow-up is always done with Technical analysis.

I am basically a long term swing (3 to 8 weeks) and long term investor (two months to three years). I don't enter a trade with the idea that it will last x-number of weeks and out. The length of my hold depends on the performance of the stock.

It is my belief that, the longer the hold, the more important Fundamentals play in selecting stocks. I do not "day trade"...that depends on a special skill set to which Fundamental analysis is basically quite useless due to the short duration of the trade making fundamentals not important, as anything can happen in one or two days.

So for my style of trading uses Fundamentals (and I am still learning this type of analysis) picking likely candidates and Technical charting providing market timing and on-going monitoring.

I well set up a spreadsheet where I will allocate myself $100,000 worth of play money. It is not an overly complicated spreadsheet but for the newbie it might give you an idea of how to create one for themselves. I will divide that money into use in 5 sectors ($20,000 each) and select companies in each. I like a minimum of 1000 shares in stocks under $20/share and 500 shares for stocks in the $21-$40/share...I find I don't make money trading for lesser amounts of shares.

By this means we can monitor the good and bad trades I make and comment on them as time goes on. Please make constructive questions and comments as we go...then we can both learn.

My first sector will be Mining - Precious metals

Great to see a fellow Canadian making a contribution to futures.io (formerly BMT).

Looking forward to seeing your comments.

VV

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  #14 (permalink)
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A buy recorded for B2Gold Corp BTO.TO

Well I had to chase this stock as it reversed tack at the beginning of the day and did not dip to $2.75 as I expected.

I don't panic and change my order immediately...I was greedy for a nickle off/share...so I ended paying a dime more per share than I had to....but this is not important to me because I feel this stock has a lot more legs. This is a solid company with solid revenues and as I found out, apparently well managed. So as long as the price of gold rises, well the price of BTO's shares will follow.

Futures Gold Chart Daily

Gold is on a bit of a breakout now and its next resistance is around $1360 as I see it...if it makes it there BTO will perform very well

the next resistance I see for BTO is a band from about $3.15 to $3.25...then a break to $3.30 then $3.60

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=bto.to,PWUADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!.05!!2!20]&pref=G

It is when a share price approaches a resistance that I consider (using those 4 charts I showed earlier) as to whether or not to continue to hold, add to my position or sell...the price can oscillate all it wants between support and resistance and I won't touch it....unless I have found a better place for the money, of course.

For the American traders following this thread....B2Gold Corp also exists in an American listing

B2Gold Corp [TSX:BTO]

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&sy...81&width=1045&mocktick=1

B2Gold Corp [NYSE:BTG]

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&sy...81&width=1045&mocktick=1

As you can see the charts match except for the latter is in $US so exchange rates show the difference in price. Also look at the volume difference...the American stock has a volume of only about 2 million shares traded, where as on the Canadian TSX about 7 million shares traded. Yep...Canadian companies don't get the attention of most American investors...but they should in some cases.

What interested me in the American listing was there is an after-hours trade of about 0.5 million ....wow!...nice activity.

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  #15 (permalink)
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I'll contribute a case of Blue. I doubt anyone will argue that.

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  #16 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
Wrong assumption.
Like yourself I use fundamentals to come up with a watch list, then price action to find entries and exits. My trades may be held for a couple days,a couple weeks or in some cases years.

I don't use indicators other than trend lines. My feelings are that indicators just give a visually pleasing picture of what price has done, and if you pay attention to what price is doing you can be one step ahead of the traders who rely on indicators.

I haven't spent much time with mining or Oil&Gas because the fundamentals I look for don't show up. Miners for the most part plow all their profits back into new exploration. They have a terrible record for bringing projects in on budget.

Right now I'm building a position in TCM. Picked some up on Jan 14 on the breakout. Still holding.

Sorry for the wrong assumption. I do use indicators and they are not just pretty pictures to me. I went through a lot of detail to show the charts I use. Many people try and search for the "holy grail" indicator and it does not exist. I use a selection of non-competing indicators and draw a consensus from them....I have not found anyone else that does this...but I have spent almost a decade developing this idea...it works well for me.

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. [TSX:TCM] [NYSE:TC] an interesting company...you don't run into a molybdenum mine very often and a commercial one at that....I like that it is an American company that also lists in Canada....

It carries a LOT of debt...almost $1Billion total and its net revenue is pretty rocky from quarter to quarter

Molybdenum Prices and Molybdenum Price Charts - InvestmentMine

looking at these charts it looks like the price of the metal is recovering a bit this year. Since its major use is in steel production, perhaps this is an indication that this industry will make a comeback this year.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=TCM.TO,PWUADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!0.1!!2!20]&pref=G

you can see this recovery a bit in this chart but overall it has a long way to go before it turns a bullish trend IMHO

TCM.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this chart shows neutral right now...we are entering a Bollie tunnel...both the MACD and Slow Sto are flat while the BB's get tighter...this chart is not giving a clue yet as to direction...if the MACD and Slow Sto rise when the BBwidth rises...you will be happy....if the MACD and Slow Sto fall (neg slope) you will not be happy.

TCM.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

This is not a bullish chart I am afraid....neutrally bearish in my opinion................Good Luck! I might be wrong...you will know in the next week or so.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Trader Y View Post
I'll contribute a case of Blue. I doubt anyone will argue that.

I am a Kokanee Gold man myself...but all suds are welcome here

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  #18 (permalink)
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I remember the Kokanee days in highschool, great beer. I think it was mid 90's when it came to Ontario. Never could find the snowboarder who was suppose to be hidden in the emblem on the bottle.

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  #19 (permalink)
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Trader Y View Post
I remember the Kokanee days in highschool, great beer. I think it was mid 90's when it came to Ontario. Never could find the snowboarder who was suppose to be hidden in the emblem on the bottle.

It wasn't a snowboarder it was a Sasquatch. Brewed right in the Creston Valley in BC.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #20 (permalink)
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TCM: Lots of debt but that money was spent upgrading the mill at the BC Moly Mine and bring the Mt Milligan gold mine into production. I expect rising revenues as they work the bugs out and rising gold price can only help.

As far as the chart goes I see a sell off on volume to a new low then the volume dried up. No more sellers. Since then we have an uptrend with rising bottoms telling me that there is more demand than supply. Volume is drying up but buyers are stepping in with a little higher price each week.

TC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I donít expect it to move a lot but I think I can move in and out if it trades in a range and pick up a few bucks.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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