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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #181 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
And why should I do that....it is none of your business frankly to be able to calculate my real holdings.

I couldnít agree more. Your real holdings, or mine, are none of my or anyone elseís business. Thatís why I show the results of my trades in percentages. That way anyone reading the posts can relate to the trades using their own account size.

What I was trying to ascertain was the total returns you have realized using your system. To say that you had a return of 27% after taking out living expenses is impressive but would be more informative if we knew the total return.


Underexposed View Post
First of all....you cannot live on $100,000 for the last 6 years and have no other income....this portfolio in this journal is simply an amount for instructive example.

I realize that. Like you I use $100,000 as an example to illustrate my points. Itís a nice round number and it works well with percentages.

Underexposed View Post
That is ABSOLUTELY wrong...I told you that I had salted away sufficient funds to live on in Money market mutual funds for 2 years...I did NOT exhaust those funds during that 10 month period of decline so I had funds available....ALSO when it was clear that there was a recovery I actively traded stocks at that point...taking capital losses then to balance the capital gains I was making during the recovery....I did not stand pat during the recovery...that would have been stupid.

When you say your account gained 27% less living expenses, does that include the new money you added to the account from your emergency funds?

Why were you willing to take losses on the way up and not on the way down?

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #182 (permalink)
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I couldnít agree more. Your real holdings, or mine, are none of my or anyone elseís business. Thatís why I show the results of my trades in percentages. That way anyone reading the posts can relate to the trades using their own account size.

What I was trying to ascertain was the total returns you have realized using your system. To say that you had a return of 27% after taking out living expenses is impressive but would be more informative if we knew the total return.

When you say your account gained 27% less living expenses, does that include the new money you added to the account from your emergency funds?

There is no "new money" in my portfolio. The "emergency money" is/was in the form of Money Market Mutual Funds which are part of the overall portfolio I have ( I have several portfolios depending on use...$US, TFSA, RRSP and General)and their monthly distributions are reinvested in more units of the fund....I chose Money Market funds as they have a constant value of $10/unit and have no commissions associated with buying or selling...at least that is true of my broker TD Waterhouse. Hence the value is unchanged no matter what the conditions of the market and provide a small increase through the distributions. The money is available in 24 hours to live on or invest in other stocks if I don't have ready cash in my other portfolios.

I don't keep 2 years of living money hanging around in cash in a bank account....that is stupid.


deaddog View Post
Why were you willing to take losses on the way up and not on the way down?

Quite obviously again...I sell and take a loss on the way up because I see a better opportunity for the money.

I don't sell on the way down because I do not see a better opportunity.

Your questions are becoming annoying and this thread of your conversation will not continue on this discussion if you do not want to be placed on an ignore list...

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  #183 (permalink)
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Gold and Silver


As you might have guessed by now I like mining stocks.

I don't like exploration companies unless they have active revenue streams from a mine that they have developed....the reason is because it is very difficult to evaluate the status of such a company and there are a lot of scams in this group of companies.

Exploration companies sell dreams...not reality. From the time they discover a deposit, evaluate its commercial viability (if it has potential then at this point they may sell the property), build the infrastructure (roads, rail line, electricity, accommodations, mining structure) and start producing the metal, it could take as much as 10 years and fail at any point along the way.

However, that is not what they will tell you on the this journey....they will report drilling results which usually are cherry picked to show the good ones...You must look at these results carefully and read between the lines. For example: if the high ore is 300 feet under ground...then this cannot be an easy to mine open pit mine....it will be a more expensive underground mine and take longer to bring to production.

They will tout the value of the ore body...based on the current value of the metal. Gold was worth over $1800/oz a few years ago...exploration companies of the time were touting the value of their estimated ore body on the basis of that price back then....those potential mines are still in the development stage and the price of gold has fallen by at least 1/3 and is still falling....

GOLD mines however are easier to evaluate...they have production revenue, mining efficiencies, grades of the ore body and reserves that are harder numbers.

What drives the stock price of these stocks is the price of the commodity! That and their ability to mine the commodity...labour and maintenance issues and also its ore reserves...this is for mature mines....for smaller startup mines...the above applies PLUS the potential of being a buyout target from the more mature mines (they don't want to explore for mines as it is too expensive...they would rather buy out a small proven mine)

SO....there you have it as far as my feelings about mining stocks.

some metals seem joined at the hip....Silver and Gold march to much the same drummer....You don't see one metal price rise and the other fall...not very often anyway. Platinum and Palladium are similar as they have both jewelery uses as well as strong, very similar industrial uses....Palladium is often referred too as the "poor man's Platinum"

I will discuss the price of Gold and Silver in this post and other metals in succeeding posts.

GOLD

Here is the chart for Gold on a daily basis

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we have followed this chart for weeks now...if you have read previous posts of mine using trend lines helped me predict the time of a major change almost to the day by following the progress of the price to the apex of a resistance/support triangle...I was less successful in the prediction of the direction of the movement but learned a few lessons there in making decisions of that nature on minor bullish/bearish tendencies {sigh}

The dotted line in the above chart represents a MAJOR resistance line that must be passed before any thoughts of $1500+ gold price can be imagined.

The solid red line is the extension of the top of the previous triangle structure (the support line of that triangle is useless now)

The dotted Green line is the line-in-the-sand support which, if it fails when probably see the price of gold fall to $1000/oz or worse

The solid Green line is the current support line. As you can see, it forms a declining channel with signs of a recovery of sorts from the drop in price, though that is tenuous at this point.

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this is a shorter timeline of hourly prices....the dotted red line represents the resistance trend during the plummet following the breach of the previous support line. As you can see that fall is over for the time being...we have settled into a rather narrow channel between the solid red resistance and the dotted green support.

The solid green line is a tentative support line that is current as we approach the red resistance. This is a rising triangle and as such is generally tending to bullish as the sellers are raising their minimum price while the buyers are drawing the line at $1248ish. It always amazes me how gold prices fill these triangle structures to the apex. If it broke that resistance then I see another short term resistance at $1260.

SILVER

Silver has a few more industrial uses but basically it is a jewelry and emotion stock like Gold

Here is the daily chart

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On a daily basis we see that we are stuck in a descending wedge. I should have also drawn in a MAJOR support line at $19.00 and that has been broken (about the same time as Gold fell)...so it did not hold the line as long as gold so that channel I illustrated seems to be significant. and it does not look good long term.

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this hourly chart shows that the drop on May 31 has stopped and we have a more positive channel shown by the Solid green and red lines...The dotted red line shows a resistance line that has been now broken...HOWEVER I would not get excited about that as the MAJOR support line at $19 has been broken and is now a resistance. So I can see the price rising to $19 but that is all at this point.

Conclusion

So those are the charts, short and long term, for Gold and Silver. They look different on the surface but they really track eachother if you do a performance comparison

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Look at this overlay....when Gold rises...Silver rises...when Gold falls Silver falls....there is a bit of a lag on the part of Silver but I think you can look for confirmations of the price of one metal by looking at the movement in price of the other.

I hope you found this discussion interesting....I will do a similar post on Platinum/Palladium soon.

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  #184 (permalink)
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Mid-week Portfolio Status June 4/14

Well it has been a bit of a roller coaster but we are on the plus side this week.

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Things seem to have settled down...I should start looking for a stock in the $1 -$2/share range...If you have any Canadian stocks in this range I would be happy to give my opinion on them.

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  #185 (permalink)
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new stock addition

The time has come to add another stock to the portfolio

Chorus Aviation Inc. [CHR.B:TSX]

this is a small airline in Canada and was incorporated on September 27, 2010 and is a dividend-paying holding company which owns Jazz Aviation LP and a number of other companies involved in aviation related businesses.

Fundamentals

this is an announcement of their first quarter earnings for 2014

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

here is a quote for the beginning of the article


Quoting 
Chorus Aviation Inc. announces first quarter earnings

Intention to change from quarterly to monthly dividend in third quarter 2014
Intention to complete the early redemption of outstanding convertible debentures

Best on-time arrival performance in Canada for the tenth consecutive quarter
Consistent quarterly profitability since 2006

HALIFAX, May 15, 2014 /CNW/ - Chorus Aviation Inc. ('Chorus') (TSX: CHR.B CHR.A CHR.DB) today announced its first quarter 2014 earnings.

Q1 2014 HIGHLIGHTS

EBITDA1 of $47.3 million, up 38.3%.
EBITDA margin of 11.4%.
Operating income of $31.2 million, up 50.0%.
Adjusted net income1 of $20.3 million, up 38.0%.
Adjusted net income per share1 of $0.17 per basic share.
$60.0 million early, partial repayment of 9.5% maturing convertible debentures.


For the first quarter 2014, Chorus reported EBITDA of $47.3 million compared to $34.2 million in the same quarter 2013, an increase of $13.1 million. Operating income was $31.2 million, $10.4 million higher than the same period 2013. Adjusted net income of $20.3 million or $0.17 per basic share, was up by $5.6 million or $0.05 per basic share over first quarter 2013. Chorus incurred $2.8 million in voluntary employee severance in the first quarter versus $5.7 million in the same period in 2013. Chorus has invested $12.7 million since the inception of this cost savings program in the first quarter of 2013.

The company currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.113/share (yield of 10.96%) which will be a monthly dividend (divide payout by 3) later in the year.

Technical

P&F Chart

here is the P&F chart which I use for resistance/support levels and targets

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I like this kinda chart....it is finally breaking out after years since 2008-2009. there should be strong support at $4.00 and a minor resistances at $4.70 then $4.80 then $5.30. It is hard to evaluate their effect (if any) since it is such a long time ago. I do think though that $5.60 would be a stronger resistance point.

I don't really set targets but I would evaluate continued holding at those minor resistances along the way.

Trigger Chart

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this stock already has started a run and stalled at $4.10...it could be that this run might be over for a wihile but I think the $4.00 support will hold. I love the Slow Sto being pegged into so called over bought zone which I treat and bullish right now.

The response of the MACD and BBWidth are positive though a bit muted

Sentiment Chart

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Everything is bullish in this chart...the ADX DI+/- , RSI and CMF are very strong at this point....I think the halt at $4.10 is only temporary right now.

Ichimoku Chart

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Another very bullish chart from all indicators

Conclusion

I will buy this stock for my fantasy portfolio...But at what price?

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Look at that head banging at the $4.10....I could try for a purchase of $4.08 but that runs the risk for losing this order if it passes $4.10

I am entering a limit order for 1000 shares of Chorus Aviation Inc. [CHR.B:TSX] @ $4.10/share

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  #186 (permalink)
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Well that was good timing...with the order for Chorus Aviation Inc. [CHR.B:TSX] was filled immediately (I know as I placed a real order after making that post and it was filled immediately and about 30 mins later the price broke through that $4.10 barrier and is about $4.14 now...I wish all trades when so well.

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We shall see how good this ride will be. The main travel season is entering now, apparently Canadian airlines are doing pretty good now....the dividend should be nice too add..I will miss this month's dividend as ex-dividend was May 27 but that is ok.

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  #187 (permalink)
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Portfolio Status June 6

Well we were going fine until today

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I am comfortable with these stocks even though 2 of them are boat anchors right now...Kelso had a wild ride today on no news...probably profit taking...FPNewspapers is still in consolidation. I like these stocks long term so I will hang onto them...We are still in the black and that is all that matters

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  #188 (permalink)
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Mid week status June 11

I have been quite busy lately...I have not paid attention to my fantasy or real portfolios very much the last few days.

Nothing has really changed...my problem stocks are still KLS.TO and particularly FP.TO

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FPnewpapers (FP.TO) is a quite thinly traded stock and as such is deadly for day traders but it does not worry me as far as getting in and out as I still believe in the long term dividend potential for this stock and I do not hold a great number of shares that would make it difficult to exit in a reasonable period of time.

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you can see here that there was a spike today in the price...we are entering a key period now with the Bollinger bands getting tight. Despite that fall, there is little effect on the indicators. The position of the share price is precarious now as it never has completely reached the 20daySMA...and is hugging the lower BB but the MACD and Slo Sto barely budged though admittedly they are not looking good.

I am going to give it a chance to recover and set a Limit Stop Loss @ $4.05 - $4.10 for the 2000 shares of FP.TO

Kelso Industries is a company for the future as the use of oil tanker railway cars for the transportation of crude oil is not going to end and this company has the solution to making them safer...this dip in price does not bother me.

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  #189 (permalink)
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Ok...I have talked about FPnewspapers and so far the price has not tripped the stop-loss though it can close yesterday dropping to $4.11 before rebounding to $4.24....so three is hope that there will be a rise.

Another problem in this portfolio is Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [BXE:TSX]

So why did it fall to about $9.00???

well it was due to this action....

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols


Quoting 
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. Announces Closing of $172.6 Million Bought Deal Financing

TSX, NYSE MKT: BXE

CALGARY, June 5, 2014 /PRNewswire/ - Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. ("Bellatrix" or the "Company") (TSX, NYSE MKT: BXE) is pleased to announce that it has closed its previously announced bought deal offering of 18,170,000 common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares") at a price of $9.50 per Common Share for aggregate gross proceeds of $172,615,000 (the "Offering"). The Common Shares issued pursuant to the Offering included the exercise in full by the underwriters of the over-allotment option. The syndicate of underwriters for the Offering was co-led by Canaccord Genuity Corp. and Dundee Securities Ltd. and included AltaCorp Capital Inc., Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd., National Bank Financial Inc., Northland Capital Markets, TD Securities Inc., CIBC World Markets Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Paradigm Capital Inc. and Scotia Capital Inc.

Net proceeds from the Offering will be utilized to temporarily reduce outstanding indebtedness under the Company's credit facilities, thereby freeing up borrowing capacity that may be redrawn, from time to time, to fund the Company's ongoing capital expenditure program and for general corporate purposes. As a result of completion of the Offering, Bellatrix confirms that, as previously announced, it has increased the Company's 2014 Capital Expenditure Budget from $440 million to $500 million.

So this deal adds to dilution but puts $172.6Million into its coffers to service debt and future projects. This offer drew the price down with it with a bit of an overshot to $9.00. Now the purchasers of these shares will actively promote their sale and the price should rise to previous levels and probably beyond IMHO.

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you can see the improvement in the CMF climbing out of the mud and the RSI and ADX are looking better now.

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  #190 (permalink)
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well we made back some ground lost earlier in the week....the losses are getting less (we almost broke even this week.

Here is the weekly status

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Have a good Father's Day weekend

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