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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #161 (permalink)
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Yes, it is unpredictable lately. But that does not stop me from trying.

I think I have the timing right for the breakout but the direction is in question.

currently at 6:48am MST these are the charts for Silver and Gold

Gold:

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Silver

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it seems that right now the support lines for both metals are being tested.... could I have the timing right but direction wrong...could be as my mildly bullish sentiment is based on the smallest of evidence. But this is fascinating to watch.

We shall see soon.

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  #162 (permalink)
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Status Friday May 23/14

Well gold did nothing...another head fake....I still think the move has to be made soon...nothing more to say...this thing is ripe to burst anytime

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As can be seen, we have recovered about 1/2 our last week's losses. FPnewspaper [TSX:FP] continues to be the boat anchor ... it may be not over....why? because the share price should be headed back to the 20daysma

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As well the MACD/BBWidth "pinch" has not been completed....as well the Slow Sto has sloped negative now...this is not bullish it is the opposite.

So why don't I sell??? Well I think we are near the bottom...just a gut feel based on previous patterns back in Mid March. As well I did not buy this stock for a flip....I want it long term for the reliable dividend and potential capital gain eventually...when the end of this bear is shown I will add more to this position and increase my dividend return.

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On the positive side The Toronto Dominion Bank [TSX:TD] has begun a nice bounce gaining about $1.50 in the past 2 days. This is just the beginning of the run and it will be interesting to see how high it goes...I have no desire to sell either of these stocks at this point

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  #163 (permalink)
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Iím looking at some mortgage lenders for dividend income.

MPK; FN; and FC;

I have some cash sitting around in a HISA earning a whopping 1.3%; I can tie it up for 5 years and get 2.5% or so. So Iím looking for a better place to sock it away.

My thinking is these companies have a pretty good record of maintaining their distributions.

If you have the time Iíd appreciate your thoughts on these companies.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #164 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
I’m looking at some mortgage lenders for dividend income.

MPK; FN; and FC;

I have some cash sitting around in a HISA earning a whopping 1.3%; I can tie it up for 5 years and get 2.5% or so. So I’m looking for a better place to sock it away.

My thinking is these companies have a pretty good record of maintaining their distributions.

If you have the time I’d appreciate your thoughts on these companies.

I think you mean MKP not MPK

All of these stocks have performed decently with respect to delivering on their dividend obligations in the past.

One of my tests that I use on dividend stocks...especially financial dividend payers is how well they did during the crisis of 2008-2009.

MCAN Mortgage Corporation (MKP:TSX) Quarterly dividend, current yield:7.99%

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

this stock had a quarterly dividend of $0.23/share at its height in 2008 but it dropped to $0.11/quarter at the low point of 2009....it regained that $0.23 dividend quickly (the next quarter) and has risen to $0.28/quarter where it is today.

First National Financial Corporation (FN:TSX) Monthly dividend, current yield:6.54%

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

this stock had a Monthly dividend of $0.104/share at its height in 2008 and it rose to $0.1125/month at the low point of 2009....it kept rising to $0.125 monthly dividend where it is today.

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation (FC:TSX) Monthly dividend, current yield: 7.66%

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Charts and Graphs

this stock amazingly has had the same monthly dividend for the last 10 years of $0.078/share.

Conclusion: Based on past history all stocks performed decently during crisis and recovered their stock price quickly when the crisis was over....however, MCAN Mortgage Corporation (MKP:TSX) did lose its dividend for a short period of time and that loss of dividend can cause a severe loss of share price. So I am slightly biased against MKP for that reason

Share price recovery

MKP has recovered well and in share price it rose steadily from the low of $8.00/share to a high of $16.00 by 2011 and stands at $14.00 today

FN has recovered even better and in share price it rose steadily from the low of $8.00/share to $22.00 by 2010 (one year) and stands at $22.00 today

FC has recovered slowly in share price it rose steadily from the low of $8.00/share to $14.00 by 2011 and stands at $12.00 today.

Conclusion:

FN beats out MKP and FC as far as share performance...with MKP the rise was rapid for the first year and then went sideways for the next 9 years. Personally though I like the performance of FC a little better....its rise was slow and steady for 9 of the 10 years after regaining its pre-crisis share price within a year.

From a debt perspective

MKP - on an annual basis it has had debt rise from $5 million to almost $2 billion over the last 5 years
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FC - on an annual basis the debt has crept up from $33 million to $150 million over the last 5 years
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FN - carries the most debt with no debt 5 years ago and now having $18 billion today
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

From an income perspective

MKP - the net revenue is stable at between $21 - 30 million annually
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FC - the net revenue has been stable for the last 5 years at about $14 - 17 million annually
Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

FN - well bigger debt but its income has risen dramatically too from $21 - $163 Million annually

Conclusion

well the higher share price of FN certainly is a result of its increase in revenues. I don't like the MKP ballooning of debt particularly...I like more control. FC has the lowest debt but lower income as well.

From a charting perspective

I like to compare the performance of the three stocks in one chart.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&sy...35&width=1045&mocktick=1

Clearly the big loser here is First National Financial Corporation (FN:TSX).

If I were to put money into one of these stocks, I think it would be in Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation (FC:TSX). The dividend has bee ROCK steady for the past 10 years...crisis or not. In addition the share price has a steady rise over those last 9 years or so...very little fluctuation...though slow.

So if I wanted to salt away an amount of money FC has the highest rate of return on its dividend as well as improving in share value....I would expect a decent capital gain as well as a nice dividend monthly gain for the next 5 years.

that is my view on the matter...I hope it helps you.

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  #165 (permalink)
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has the break in the spot price of gold happened now?

Last week I predicted the price of Gold would show its colors by Monday. I FORGOT that Monday was a holiday in the USA (Memorial Day) and there was no trading in that country on that day.

But now trading has begun again and this 5 min chart shows a severe drop in the spot price of gold

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this has clearly broken the support line at $1290....we have had head-fakes before so we shall see if this is real. As you can see already there is a recovery of sorts but $1290 is now a resistance.

the next support is $1250

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  #166 (permalink)
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Selling OceanaGold Corporation [OGC:TSX] @ $2.53

Getting out of gold stocks now totally due to that drop in the spot price and will take the loss

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  #167 (permalink)
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yep, Gold went Bear

it is pretty certain now....that triangle formation historically was bearish...the buyers were driving down the price steadily, accepting lower and lower maximum prices whereas the sellers were holding the line at around $1290 for a long time...this could not go on forever and today the sellers blinked and accepted lower prices.

here is the my chart with the next support levels....$1250 first....if that fails then $1200....if that fails...when it would not be good for gold holders.

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I got my price for Oceanagold corp....I will jump back into gold mining stocks (goes for silver too) but not until I see a significant turn around....

those minor bullish signs I saw before were meaningless...I see that now...lesson learned...though I did predict the date of a major movement pretty well.

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  #168 (permalink)
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This is going to be another losing week but again as with the last loss week when it is happening across the board and not company specific I just sit tight....except for the gold stock I had OceanaGold which I successfully sold and am sitting on the cash for now.

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Well as can be seen in this chart the $1250 support has been tested today and it held but I doubt it will be the last test...I hope it holds since if it fails it will probably quickly fall to $1200 and then if that fails.....well that would not be good.

I am watching Gold as the recovery of gold mining stocks is quick on a rise in the gold spot price....eventually the price will turn around.

this exercise with gold charts is interesting for me. I have payed lip service to using trend lines in the past for resistance and support but never applied such attention to anything other than gold seriously....that is probably a mistake on my part.

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  #169 (permalink)
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Whats your take on the BXE bought deal then ammending it.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #170 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
Whats your take on the BXE bought deal then ammending it.

overall dropping the bought deal basis for 25,650,000 common shares from $9.75 to $9.50 is just a response to the downturn in the market and these are not immediately available to the public but rather these shares are sold to underwriters and thus they are giving the underwriters greater incentive to sell the shares to the public.

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the share price should fall a bit lower...this chart is interesting.

I know you follow my posts and you have seen my discussion on the pattern as I call it "MACD/BBWidth" pinch.

last week, BXE looked like it was on the road to recovery however...look at the BBwidth and MACD charts....they had not reversed their direction despite the rise in price.....they looked like they were going to change but they did not. So that was not the end to the fall....right now...I think there are lower share prices to come. I see a support in the P&F chart somewhere around $9.00

I like BXE...I hold it in my real holdings...they have a rich section of Saskatchewan for oil production. All Oil stock is down I will probably add to my holdings when this reverses....I don't sell then buy back...I probably should do this but I find that my selling results in the price rising and I kick myself for having to chase the stock

The ammendment is simply to make it easier and more profitable for underwriters to resell the shares and was market driven....they get the money they need easier for the expansion they want to do.....long term this is a good stock IMHO.

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