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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #141 (permalink)
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Ok...I made a number of changes so here is the status of the portfolio

NOTE: on the post of the state of the portfolio last Friday I had mistake in the spreadsheet for the overall % gain ...it should have been over 8% not over 6%....nice to make a mistake in that direction

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The reason for jumping on Kelso Industries as I did was a TV news report as I was working on my post.

Apparently the president of Burlington Northern in the USA said that the Canadian rules for tightening of oil tanker railcar improvement/replacement should be followed in the USA as well. Apparently the Canadian rules are to replace outdated rail-tankers in 3 years....whereas in the USA the rules are to replace them in 7 years.

I does not make sense to have two sets of regulations and Burlington Northern is in favour of adopting the Canadian schedule. As this railway is the largest mover of oil by rail in the USA this will be a great shot in the arm for Kelso.

Since we sold the shares back in early April (for a nice profit the share price has risen another $1.50 or so...I set that Stop-loss too tight I guess...

I still have over $7000 to spend...it may be put onto another 1000shares of Kelso....we shall see.

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  #142 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
A very interesting, well written and educational journal. I thank you for the time and effort you are putting into it. Thanks for sharing your methodology and thought process for choosing stocks and managing your portfolio.

I thank you for the kind comment...It seems I have a different approach to trading...especially on this site. Hopefully I am showing that long term trading can be as successful as short term swings....it certainly is a lot less stressful when done properly.

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  #143 (permalink)
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Gold has take another plunge this morning...not far ...down to about $1296....I am tired of these fluctuations. They are amplified on the gold stocks and as a result my stop-loss on Sandstorm Gold [TSX:SLL] tripped and I sold the 2500 shares for $6.25 resulting in a loss of $644.98 which was much better than a month ago when the loss would have been a couple of $K...so I gained back some ...but now I am frustrated with Gold...I still have OceanaGold Corp so there is a finger in gold but but not a fist.

Kelso Industries that I bought yesterday has gained 4% since that buy....so I am going to add another 1000 shares to this stock. Replacing those rail cars over the next X-years will be a huge shot in the arm for this company.

I have about $23K to play with since the sale of SSL shares.

I am going to buy another O&G stock that I have been fond of for a while in my real portfolio.

Pengrowth Energy Corp. [TSX:PGF]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

this is another monthly dividend stock with a yield of 6.575%

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These are both bullish charts for me

So today's orders are

it is 10:10 MST currently

Kelso Technologies Inc [TSXV:KLS] Buy 1000 shares @ $6.95/share
Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:PGF] Buy 2000 shares @ $7.35/share

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  #144 (permalink)
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mid week status May 7/14

Well it was quite an active day....here is the mid-week status of the portfolio

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Well unless things pick up it will not be a huge week like the past two but we are at least on the right side of the daisies

Note the reduced emphasis on gold stocks....gone are B2Gold [TSX:BTO] and Sandstorm Gold [TSX:SSL] gold is boring me now...it is showing no real lasting trend and those stocks whipsaw with every fluctuation in gold pricing. It has not disappeared entirely...I added OceanaGold Corp [TXS:OCG]...it is a cheaper stock and not as volatile in comparisons with the price of gold. So I still have a finger there and will follow the spot price of gold AND if there is a real Bullish trend...I will move to reinstate these companies into the portfolio again.

I have added a new stock Pengrowth Energy Corp [TSX:PGF] This stock is well known to me...I have had this stock in my real portfolio for a couple of years now. I enjoy the regular dividend as well as the capital growth...double bubble. I expect this trend to continue.

I have also re-added Kelso Technologies [KLS.V] it was sad that the dip stopped out my previous holding though it was my first real profit of note. I added 2000 shares and then an additional 1000 shares with a 3% gain in 2 days. I think it is the right industry (making oil rail tankers safer) at the right time....an excellent long term hold.

I have spent most of the money resulting from the sale of Nordion [TSX:NDN] shares...I am happy with the selection...Bellatrix Exploration is the strong stock it looked when I bought a few weeks ago.

Writing this journal has changed my approach a bit...I used to wait for 50-100% profit before selling and often this resulted in a loss of 10-20% gains...now I am not so reticent about taking smaller gains...this is a good exercise.

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  #145 (permalink)
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W'a Happened???

Well we lost about 1% of value in this portfolio on Thursday with the biggest losses in the Oil and Gas industry sector.

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If you look at the previous post we were working on a nice gain of 0.24% as of Wednesday afternoon and at 10:00am MST yesterday we were well over 1% to the good for the week but that died. I still don't understand what happened...profit taking? Maybe in some cases but every stock saw some loss....I did see news that Canada as a whole had a net job loss which was responsible for wiping out a 6/10 of a cent of the $CAD versus $US...that might have been the trigger.

You can see how severe the drop was by looking at this chart for BXE.TO

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Damn near linear loss.

What to do? Sell everything and go to cash??? If it were one stock then there would be some event that caused the drop....bad financial report, production losses due to accident, loss of market share overnight....something like that...but this is a global thing.

The company's stock was just hit by a drive-by shooting...nothing else has changed. This would be a buying opportunity if I had more cash but with less than $2000 I don't really have enough cash to take advantage of this...I might buy 100-200 shares of something but that would have little impact on this portfolio.

No, when such events happen out of the blue...I simply sit back and wait to see what happens today....should be a pullback as bargain hunters move in.

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  #146 (permalink)
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State of the union Friday May 9 and the TSX

well to say I am surprised is an understatement. Thursday morning I was up over 1% for the week and a day and a half later we are down 2% for the week...quite a sudden drop!!!

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I am not unhappy about the portfolio at this point. This drop is not company specific as I see it...rather it is a general response to indices both in Canada and the USA...we had bad job numbers nationally but that will be forgotten quickly IMHO

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I thought I would see what happened to the TSX Composite index.

As you can see from the P&F chart above this so far is nothing more than a pullback approaching a support at 14500. It this support fails then there are a number of minor reports until it reaches 14400 which at this point I doubt will break...actually I think 14400 to fail.

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This chart just shows the end of a bullish run and an entry into consolidation...As typically happens at the end of a run the values tend to return to the 20daySMA. Note today's doji for the last candle...indicates indecision to me and implies the plunge may be over....there is nothing scary in this chart

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Similarly there is nothing outrageous in the last chart either....the CFM remains bullish, the RSI is mildly bearish while the ADX is fairly neutral considering the fall.

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the Ichimoku cart is fine...well above the clouds, Note the thin blue/red lines....though the index fell over the last 4 days the Blue line continues to diverge from the red line...this is NOT bearish...the On Bal Volume is mildly bullish while the CCI is mildly bearish

Conclusion

I would be pretty naive if I said that 100% this is the end of the fall/correction...it could get worse, for sure...but so far it does not look serious enough to sell all and go to cash.

But let us look at USA indices...as they say "when the USA sneezes, Canada catches a cold". Our Canadian economy, like it or not is joined at the hip with the USA in most ways...though it is not like the USA cares much about that {sigh}

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there is an interesting difference here...I chose the SPX index instead of the DJAI because generally the two indices track each other.

Looking at the SPX things don't look too bad...both the Slo Sto and MACD are quite neutral at present and the BBwidth is shoing signs of going lower indicating a tightening of the BB's so a movement in the next 2-3 weeks is implied though it cannot be guessed at its direction.

The Nasdaq is of course a Hi-Tech index while the SPX is more business oriented....things have not gone well for Nasdaq the last few weeks but not that the BBwidth is going lower...while the Slow Sto and MACD are going sideways with a slight neg drift. There is a major move coming in that index too....it is not auspiciously placed right now being less than its 20daySMA...but I see lots of time for that being bettered.

Things don't look desperate in the USA...so I would say that the economy of the USA will not negatively affect Canada for now.

USA is a Hi-Tech and Business oriented economy whereas the TSX in Canada is more commodity based...we always seem to be waiting on other parts of the world to get there act together so we can sell our commodities. At this time as far as Canada is concerned I think this correction will be over soon.

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  #147 (permalink)
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Recovery after drop

As I surmised, the drop in pricing on last Thursday/friday has corrected itself with probably bargain hunters flooding back in...here is the status of this portfolio as of early morning trading today

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As you can see we have almost made up the losses from the end of last week....let us hope this continues. My days of panicking at every drop in price across the board died a long time ago...If the drop had of price had continued a third day then I would have pulled in my bigger sellers snd sit tight for a while but the index analysis did not show a imminent collapse to me so we just ride it out.

Gold is making a small comeback.

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Such a tease....you see another triangle forming and that I ignored the peak on early March....that peak has no bearing anymore on the diagonal resistance anymore IMHO....it will be significant if the price rises to the peak height but that is all....the dotted red line is where I see secondary resistance.

Looking at my cash-on-hand you will see that I have about $1900 available. I will place a limit bid for OceanaGold Corp [TSX:OGC] for 500 shares @ $2.85 to bring the total holdings of this stock to 2000 shares. I wish I had been on the mark earlier as I could have gotten this stock cheaper but getting this lot for the same price as the initial holding is fine.

I would only re-invest in Sandstorm Gold and B2Gold if the price rose to break that dotted red line resistance...Gold is such a fickle tramp I don't trust it too much right now.

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  #148 (permalink)
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well nothing new on Gold....at $1297 it is just painting the inside of that triangle I showed in the above graphic for gold.

We had a great day yesterday in the portfolio...the one day gain of 2.50 % wiped out last week's loss and then some.

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Now it remains to be seen whether we can keep or better yet add to the gains.

The boat anchor in this portfolio is FPnewspapers Inc [TSX:FP]

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I do like this stock. It is a newspaper out of Winnipeg Manitoba...Manitoba is sort of isolated in Canada and this newspaper dominates here. The attraction is the dividend that is generated by the advertising revenue it receives which is over 12% annually or $0.05/share monthly this has been a very consistent dividend paid reliably for years.

As can be seen in the above chart, the stock has fallen to a support level band from $4.75 - $4.80...this support appears to be quite strong...the secondary support is at $4.50

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This chart shows the dramatic fall today but it is curious that the BBWidth indicator hardly acknowledges the drop. The share price is far below the lower Bollinger band so I would expect a pullback soon to bring the price back into the BB envelope. You can see that such plunges have happened before and the response was to rise afterward.

Not worried about the drop and may use it to buy more shares later...though I have no spare cash to buy more shares....I NEVER use margin dollars...I like to sleep at night

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  #149 (permalink)
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well that support that was ooohhhh so solid fell apart like a deck of cards and was caught by the second support I mentioned $4.50 actually it is a band I suppose from $4.45 - $4.50.

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Ok...that muted response of the BBwidth is now strong...but if I thought the share price of the stock was under the lower BB before...it is insanely lower now. To Sell now would be to panic and take a huge loss. My days of panic in trading went away after the 2008-2009 crash. You lose real money by panicking.

Why has this fall from grace happened....that is the question....NOT the world is falling SELL...SELL!!

Technical analysis cannot help you there. Fundamental analysis will investigate the damage...that is why, those that say one should follow TA or FA and never the twain should meet, are totally wrong.

So let's look at those fundamentals.

Balance Sheet

Annually

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Quarterly

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

this company has NO DEBT LOAD...none...the cash is pretty consistent every quarter


Income Statement

Annually

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Quarterly

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

you will note that the Operating Revenue is consistent every second quarter...up/down/up/down there is a seasonality to the revenue...It is a newspaper one would expect the advertising revenue in the quarter leading to Christmas would be far greater than the following quarter.

Well here is the most recent quarter

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

well true to form the quarter following Christmas was low...it was half of that of the same quarter in 2013 so of course there is panic in the streets.

this is a company that has seasonality to its revenues, I fully believe this next quarter will be better than this last one. In retrospect, if I had thought about it I should have waited for this quarterly announcement before buying the stock...but having made that mistake I will not compound the error by selling now and taking a real loss.

they announced their dividend is unchanged...if they did something like 1/2 their dividend then there would be something seriously wrong and I would bail in a heartbeat...but that constant dividend is untouched.

To sell now is a panic reaction and converting a paper loss to a real one. Looking at the chart, this stock has suffered previous falls like this and recovered...this is an extreme over reaction IMHO...if I had cash I would probably take advantage of this but I don't and my other stocks are doing well....so I will just watch for now.

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  #150 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post

this is a company that has seasonality to its revenues, I fully believe this next quarter will be better than this last one. In retrospect, if I had thought about it I should have waited for this quarterly announcement before buying the stock...but having made that mistake I will not compound the error by selling now and taking a real loss.

they announced their dividend is unchanged...if they did something like 1/2 their dividend then there would be something seriously wrong and I would bail in a heartbeat...but that constant dividend is untouched.

To sell now is a panic reaction and converting a paper loss to a real one. Looking at the chart, this stock has suffered previous falls like this and recovered...this is an extreme over reaction IMHO...if I had cash I would probably take advantage of this but I don't and my other stocks are doing well....so I will just watch for now.

I agree that you shouldnít panic on a sell off. Do you have an exit strategy in place for FP if it keeps falling?

Fundamentally itís a newspaper. Advertisers are spending their money on social media. I donít see much of a growth opportunity.

Normally a dividend yield of 13% is a red flag. They havenít cut this month but Iím guessing itís a matter of time. Their history shows cuts in 2011 and 2012.

If they do announce a dividend cut then there will be another panic sell off. When do you take your loss.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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