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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #131 (permalink)
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countdown on Gold

Here is a chart on the spot price for Gold.

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Wow...such strong resistance and support lines. The price is just days away from the apex of that triangle.

A look at my other charts show mixed messages

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this chart shows the price is in a long Bollinger Band tunnel...

What I will do is look at various components of each Sharpchart and try to arrive at a consensus

1) Moving averages

- the 50daySMA cut through the 200daySMA back in mid March...they are running parallel for now though there is the tiniest indication that the 200daySMA is moving toward the 50daySMA but it is not significant... Bullishly neutral

- the 20 daySMA (dotted green line) is bearish as it has fallen through the 50day and 200day SMA's. however it has flattened out and looks as though it wants to rise above the 200 day SMA...Bearishly neutral

2) Slow Sto

- this indicator generally leads a run before it starts. It will plunge first if it is bad news or rise first if things go bullish. Currently it is on the rise...not a strong way but a rise nonetheless.... Mildly Bullish

3) MACD

- this indicator is the next one to show its colors and it is pretty flat with a small positive slope...if this was a higher high it would be full on bullish but it is weakly positive.... Bullishly neutral

4) BBWidth

- this is not a bullish/bearish indicator....this is the trigger and as such the value is extremely low....it is a hair trigger which could be pulled any time now.

Overall Consensus: Very slightly bullish but not decidedly so


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5) CMF

- This indicator is quite bullish right now. Since April 14 it has climbed out of the mud and is firmly in the green. You can see that the spot price basically follows the shape of the CFM. One would hope that this trend continues... Bullish

6) RSI

- This indicator is very flat and right now is running right down the middle (50)....Neutral

7) ADX DI+/-

- This indicator is bearish as the red DI- is above the green DI+ and it seems to be diverging


Overall Consensus: Bear cancels Bull so this chart is neutral in sentiment

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8) On Balvol and 9) CCI

- both the On Bal vol and the CCi are mildly bearish as they have a negative slope

10) Ichimoku

- the Ichimoku chart to me is bearish as well. See how it has flirted with the lower border of that Green cloud and then it has recently given up trying and fallen back. If you look closely the thin blue line is lower and stronger in slope that the thin red line...Bearish

Overall Consensus: This chart is overwhelmingly Bearish

Final Consensus

the first two charts don't show much more than a neutral sentiment...the last Ichimoku chart though is overwhelmingly bearish

On this basis, it looks like the gold price will fall below the support soon and hopefully be caught somewhere near $1250 as I see support there....failing that $1200 is the next support after that.

Not looking good as I see it.

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  #132 (permalink)
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mid-week state of the union

Well here is the status of this portfolio as of April 30

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Well we still have not made money on FP Newspapers but that is not a problem in the long run....this has not been a particularly good week but we are so far about $500 to the black so far this far.

I have extended the Limit Stop-loss on Sandstorm Gold. the situation with the price of gold is more and more tenuous. If you look at the previous post charts you will find the price of gold for the last 2 days is simply inching down that upper resistance line.

I hope there is a positive breakout but am not so sure that will be possible...I am considering a stop loss on Silvercorp Mining as well though will wait a bit there...this is probably silly to wait but it is neg karma to me to do it

My TD Bank stock is progressing well...a slow and steady riser.

I am considering selling Noridon Inc. It SHOULD inch its way to $13/share as the time for that general meeting to vote on the sale of the company approaches (sometime in late May) but I have to weigh the current price which is decent with a potential purchase of one or two other stocks with more potential...still have not made up my mind there.

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  #133 (permalink)
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Will Gold break the $1280 resistance?


That is the question for the day. It looks like my bearish sentiment from a couple of days ago is being tested. (currently 8:00am MST) the spot price has briefly pierced the $1280 support to $1279.50 but pulled back.

I am going to put a stop-loss on Silvercrest mining at $2.25 with a limit at $2.23

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As you can see from my L2 chart the current price is $2.26 with a rising MACD for now but I doubt it will last as while I have been typing this post the price of gold dipped below the $1280 slightly again.

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  #134 (permalink)
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Well that did not last long...SVM.TO is at $2.22/share right now so the stop-loss was tripped and the shares sold.

Well I got money to spend again...I don't think I will look to a mining stock this time again...especially precious metals EXCEPT for Palladium

here is a link to its spot price

Futures Palladium Chart Daily

the only problem is in North America there are only 2 companies that have legitimate Palladium mines..... North American Palladium [TSX:PDL] and Stillwater Mining Company [TSX:SWC.U] Both companies are money losers currently but Stillwater's shares are doing will at $15.52 and climbing (because of the price of Palladium) whereas North American Palladium is a true penny stock at about $0.30 and falling...PDL.TO was at one time worth $9.00/shares but a depressed market and production problems have driven the stock down...it is a decent company with problems...I watch it as if it turns things around it will be an excellent buy....but right now I would not touch it.

You will see by my choices lately I am gravitating to dividend paying stocks. A lot of so-called pundits say dividends are useless....It may be so in the USA but not in Canada. Most dividend stocks if you choose wisely hold their value better in hard times than non-dividend stocks...There are criteria for choosing these good stocks and cautions to look for since if you choose badly just because the dividend payout is high...if the dividend is cut because it is not sustainable...then the stock will plummet...you don't want those stocks....

I will talk about dividends in more detail in another post.

The stupidest thing you can do with dividend paying stocks is buying them just before the ex-dividend date and then selling the stock just after that date so you capture that dividend....dumb...dumb...dumb....dividend stocks are long term investments...in reality I have held a couple of such stocks for 5-10 years and gained both the dividends Plus capital gains....more about this in another post.

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  #135 (permalink)
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gold prices....riveting action

Wow...today may be the day for the breakout/down

look at this early morning 5 min chart

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This on the surface looks like the price of gold is going bullish. But is it??

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When you look at the daily chart...it has just reached the resistance point.....the financial gods are just coloring the triangle between the lines but we are at the apex now....probably by the end of the day, certainly Monday we will know the future direction...still looking bearish to me though as it has penetrated the support briefly twice....but there is always hope.

Such Drama!!!

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  #136 (permalink)
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What the H..L is going on with gold and week's end portfolio status

Wow...on the surface it would seem like a breakout occurred on Friday...

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But look at the chart....the dotted line is the former resistance and now is irrelevant except as a possible support line. It has been replaced with a new resistance line at around $1300...looking higher I can see a ladder of these small resistances that may or may not be important. The really important one next though after this current one is just below $1350...about 1325 is a minor one.

But currently we have replaced a diminishing triangle with a horizontal channel. ...which I frankly doubt will last much longer.

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Compare this chart to the previous similar one and you will find little has changed....instead of the Bollinger Bands diverging they ratcheted a small notch closer (BBwidth falling a little more. The MACD is still flat and the Slow Sto has a very small uptick.

The share price stopped at the 20daySMA...it could not pass it yesterday. Being that the spot price is less than the 20daySMA...which shows to me that this rise was nothing special.

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The CFM is more positive and the DI +/- converged a little both of which are a tad more positive but the RSI continues flat.

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Little has changed here too...the Ichimoku shows the price further under the cloud despite the pullback. NOTE the thin red/blue lines by the price...they did not respond to the increased price at all.

Conclusion

Still a dicey situation for gold pricing...the bounce in the spot price and breakthrough of the triangle resistance had little effect on the other charts. We are testing that new horizontal resistance...a continued rise as we saw on Friday would probably be indication of a breakout in progress...but I am not seeing it yet. I am still mildly bearish, until I see a decent change in those stocks.


Portfolio Status May 1

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Well you can see we had a reasonably successful week with another 2% gain in value raising our 2.5 month portfolio gain to a little over 6%. Silvercorp Mining was sold on the stop-loss order which was a shame as I had high hopes....we did not lose money on the brief time we held that stock as we had a capital gain of about $30 after subtracting commissions....woooohoooo!!! the hamburgers are on me

Well I got money to spend again...I have not made up my mind yet as to how to spend it..

You will note that I have raised the stop loss limit on Sandstorm Gold SSL.TO...I did this to take advantage of the rise in the price of gold...which I still feel is vulnerable to a bearish fall...if it sells at this new level I will even score a small capital gain which is fine when you compare that the the huge loss that I would have had 4 weeks ago....I did not panic and am now about to reap the rewards of that decision.....if the price of gold does break out positively I will follow it by raising the loos limit until I don't fear a fall in Gold price.

This is how I sell a stock...I allows it to rise but when it sells there is no emotion involved in pulling the trigger.

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As you can see the dividends are now starting to be significant. BNP and FP will be monthly contributions whereas TD is quarterly. I could use a DRIP to add more shares to each stock but after trying that once for real I have decided that I want the ability to be able to allocate the funds as I see fit so they are added to general revenues.

I will discuss dividends and dividend paying stocks and how to pick them in the future when I have more time.

See you Monday....good trading

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  #137 (permalink)
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mixed start to the week

Well, it has taken its time but Nordion has finally moved toward $13.00

NDN.TO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Actually it has blown past that point and reached $13.54CAD/ share a rise of 6.6%!!!! Perhaps the shareholders are not happy with the $11.75USD/share offer for the company...

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Ahhhh!!! that is the reason .... they sweetened the deal to $12.25USD which at today's exchange rate of $1USD = $1.098 means the new Canadian price would be $13.44....

But we are at $13.54 so there is some pressure that the shareholders want more for this company. As I mentioned earlier I had a feeling things were not the best when they pushed back the vote on this acquisition from late April to late May.

I am going to set a limit stop loss bid for this portfolio's share NDN.TO @ $13.44 - $13.42

If it rises much further I will raise this stop-loss position higher until it does sell. Nice acquisition but I feel it is time to take profits soon.

Gold

Well those bear feelings were wrong...it seems

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that resistance I showed last week fell easily....We are now headed for a small resistance at $1325.00...a more substantial resistance is around $1350.

Sandstorm Gold [TSX:SSL]will finally make money for us....I wish I had been able hang onto B2Gold...should I buy it back...or look for another gold mine??? Will make my mine up in the next 24 hours.

Interesting start to the week.

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  #138 (permalink)
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ok...Gold...I will bite again

I wish I had set the stop loss for BTO a little lower but a profit was a profit...as small as it was.

I decided to check gold stocks again to see of I should rebuy B2Gold Corp.

So I did what I usually do in my searches by running a simple screener

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this is a simple screener to eliminate the obvious bad boys

the screener returned the following for consideration

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I then run a 6 month comparison to see which stock is the best performer over the last 6 months

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Well B2Gold ranks up with the best but Oceania Gold is tops ... it has a lot of expectations riding on it from the P/E of over 100.

But I liked this piece of news

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

So NOW I look at the charts for this stock

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Wow....look at that resistance at $2.95....this is worth a risk to me....breaking this resistance would be huge and Gold looks to be on the recovery.

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OK perhaps you are now familiar with this chart and can recognize the bullish trigger....the Slow Sto moved positive first ....followed by the MACD and now the BBwidth has a positive slope....at the worst we will test that $2.95 resistance

Final chart today is the Ichomoku...let's look at it

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That seals the deal...the share price has strongly risen above the clouds and the CCI and On Bal volume are also bullish...in the Ichmoku chart look at the thin blue/red lines near the price....see the rise and separation of the blue line....very nice.

I will set a limit bid for 1500 shares of OceanaGold Corp [TSX:OGC] for $2.85/share which is the current asking price at the time of writing

When NDN.TO sells I will have more money and will probably add to this holding.

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I am pulling the trigger on Nordion[TSX: NDN] with a market order which yielded 13.48/share which is the last price at the bell.

I am going to take that money and buy 2000 shares Kelso Technologies Inc [TSXV:KLS] at $6.70/share

Kelso is the company that makes refits to oil tanker railway cars to make them safer and is virtually the sole company doing this

U.S., Canada tightening oil tanker rules - Spokesman.com - April 26, 2014

This news HAS to spur this company's growth.

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Underexposed View Post
I am pulling the trigger on Nordion[TSX: NDN] with a market order which yielded 13.48/share which is the last price at the bell.

A great trade!! I would have been out on the day the deal was announced. Just part of my trading plan that I bail on the first offer. I wouldn't have made the return you did but I've been burned enough times when the deals fell through that I incorporated that rule into my plan.

A very interesting, well written and educational journal. I thank you for the time and effort you are putting into it. Thanks for sharing your methodology and thought process for choosing stocks and managing your portfolio.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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